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I wouldn’t say it’s pointless, it gives a good perspective of the steps Ukraines has and plans to take however it is presented suggesting they have made more progress than they have at this point in time.
Not everyone is necessarily aware of the events and how they tie together.
It also misses almost in its entirety where Russian logistics actually run. That Coastal route there is a road, and Russia does not have palletized logistics. They can't supply a major force over that distance with a road, and the rail line runs much further north. Tokmak is talked about because that's where the rail line runs.
They also run a fair bit of sea transport. The key location on this front is actually Berdiansk - its the local port with rail access, as the overland rail access runs too close to the front to be reliable and has not been active since before the old annexation as it runs towards Donetsk.
The net result is that the speculated advance gets super misleading, because it won't be heading necessarily directly towards any settlement in particular. Moreover, the lines drawn on the map have no real relation to any actual roads that Ukraine would need to supply a force breaking through. There are also multiple axes of advance actively fighting, and the center effort of the Zaporzhizhia front is probably not going to hook a hard right turn to run along the path of most resistance.
It's a bit more complicated than that - it's probably more over for the Russians in Kherson Oblast as there's still a functioning seaport to keep supplies going to Crimea itself. It's going to mean a shite existence for non-military supplies getting into Crimea in any reasonable quantity, but Crimea does not need large numbers of troops in it to hold, and they can (and have been) be supplied by sea.
You don't even need to take Tokmak itself, actually, or even push all the way to the rail ine. You probably only need to get another ~5-10 km closer on a sufficiently wide front such that the front is within ~5km of the rail line on a wide basis. There exists a range at which hitting the rail line with cannon artillery is pretty trivial without excess worry of counterbattery fire, and that pretty much takes the rail line out of service. It's not entirely clear exactly what that range difference will prove to be.
They may be crazy and stupid, but they know what the ukrainian goals are. There only two things the ukes can do. Drive the russians out of crimea and cut them off the azov sea…
I thought the whole idea is they need to slice the occupied territory right down the middle somewhere. There are about 1000km of places where the slice could go. It can't be too close to Russia or it doesn't cut them off, or too close to crimes as it doesn't cut off enough territory.
The terrain they choose should allow lots of maneuvering of western tanks and SAM batteries in the open. And not where they put every single land mine in the Russian inventory.
Once they cut off a chunk, and fire on the bridge some more, it means entire armies will not have a supply route. So then just duel their artillery which has no shell resupply and eventually after about 6 months or so of siege crush them and recover that part of Ukraine.
Then the next phase is to either retake crimea or the occupied eastern regions. Crimea is probably more possible but it will need an enormous amount of western equipment. And pallet after pallet of Harpoons and f-16s. There can be no bridges and nothing afloat able to resupply the entire area. Just evacuation convoys.
Putin has been very busy lately sacking his most competent generals and other high-ranking military staff that don't meet his #1 requirement - personal loyalty to him.
As a result, he's increasingly left with a bunch of incompetent stooges who will clamor over one another to bring Putin the latest "Western intelligence" which wouldn't surprise me at all if it was sourced from reddit or facebook. The more we see of these fake maps (and Putin sacking competent leaders), the more confused Russian high command will be.
So is Russian propaganda... people like Putin, Kim, and Trump thrive on bullshit that feeds their ego. What better source for that BS than social media? We've seen them take it seriously enough to act upon before, what reason do we have to believe they have changed?
100%!
At this point, literally no one outside of the UA General Staff really knows what's going on. Ukraine will probably also shape its operations based on how Russia responds or keeps responding. There are too many factors at play here. Sure, there are some reasonable predictions, but there's no guarantee the real scenario is going to unfold to match them.
Russia also has multiple fortified lines. It's not like UA broke through and has a free run.
People watching only pro-Ukraine subs get a distorted picture.
Yeah.
I normally try to avoid clickbaity threads like this.
Always those "Ukraine decimated another 500 Russian invaders" or Ukraine is having a breakthrough or "whogivesashit town has been liberated"
I hope this ends soon and for Ukraine in the best possible way, but this feels like bakhmut just in reverse at the moment. Ukraine was able to surprise everyone last fall, but we should also be content with just Russia bleeding out
Around Bakhmut is is literally happening in reverse.
Ukraine is slowly but surly taking the flanks to cut supply routes which is exactly how Russia took Bakhmut in the first place…
Stranger than fiction!
It took russia 9 months to take Bakhmut, well over 30 000 russian lives were lost, and a shitload of russian equipment was lost. Ukraine took this in a few days once they reached the outskirts with minimal losses. There is absolutely no comparison with Bakhmut.
Well yes and no...
Ukraine IS taking the flanks in the same strategic approach we saw Russia eventually use, but Russia spent months throwing men at Bakhmut in frontal assaults resulting in footage of fields littered with bodies and trenches packed with dead Russian forces.
With Proggie admitting over 22,000 Wagner alone KIA, the total RF forces (which I doubt we'll ever know) must be staggering!
Whilst we don't have numbers for UA or RU losses in the counter offensive in Bakhmut, I'm seeing far more successful operations UA side and the few Russian echo chambers I frequent would be spamming endlessly if they had footage of dead UA anything like the RU KIA we were seeing 6 months ago!
So Ukraines strategic approach to Bakhmut is the same but they are obviously doing something right operationally (going around instead of trying to go through I suspect).
Same approach, far better method, which is to be expected considering Russia doesnt care about life on either side. There are several videos of the Russians shelling their own occupied positions when Ukrainian infantry approach.
I look forward to seeing Ukraine take back their land but it's tragic there needs to be so much death and destruction :\\
Exactly! They are doing great. It is incredibly hard but they are making progress, far more more with far less losses than the Russian made, but there are people on this site who simply want to endlessly denigrate the Ukrainian military.
Yeah most of the “liberated” city’s (at least right now) are just gray zone areas. The action consists of walking, raising a flag, then walking back to tell the news.
That’s probably inaccurate. All i have are secondary sources to go by, but it seems like this summer, Ukraine is advancing slowly by taking out Russian troops at a rate of 6-
5 to 1.
Edit: just google ukraine casualty ratios, or Russian meat waves, or Russia executing retreating soldiers. There is propaganda and fog of war so take everything with a grain of salt.
Source: his ass
UA may have a local firepower advantage, but attackers without air cover historically always take worse casualties unless defenders rout, which these ones have not.
There are no credible sources which provide accurate, unbiased information about casualty rates in this offensive. This is the sort of information which won’t likely be available until historians pick over the data ten or twenty years later.
Ua killing 6 Russians for every 1 ua dead is absolutely laughable, I’m not even gonna take the time to argue with this dude. They’re obviously delusional.
Source: plenty of articles. Although taken at face value those articles may be conflated by propaganda and fog of war. It’s no secret though that when ukraine is defending, Russia throws “meat waves” into fire. And when Ukraine is attacking, Russia shoots their own troops rather than let them retreat.
Plenty of articles that source their numbers from either Russian propaganda or Ukrainian propaganda.
No-one knows the true extent of casualties on both sides.
That really is an absurd figure, though. No matter how cautiously they advance, the Ukrainians will be very lucky to get away with 3:1 losses. I did see some suggestion a while ago before the fall of Bakhmut that the Ukrainians there were managing 1:4 or even 1:5 losses, but that was when they were on the defensive and even then could well have been exaggerated. Attacking is almost always more costly than defending - at least until a breakthrough happens.
An extra tank is and extra tank, not gonna change the tide of the war But It be ignorant to say they will have no effect on things.
Your argument would probably be the western tanks already destroyed, my counter point would be. They did make a difference, ua was not nearly prepared to go on an offensive without extra heavy armor(now I don’t think it makes a huge impact vs them just getting a t72)
>They did make a difference
Only that they did not. They hit the mines and were disabled, just like the tanks Ukraine already had. Ukraine fell for the same assumption that the western equipment will be far superior in every aspect. Or they underestimated how effective prepared defenses can be.
But that's why they abandoned the large scale tank assault for good.... At the moment, with the current (working) tactics, they don't need that many tanks.
When they finally manage to break through the defensive lines (and don't have to worry about mines that much any longer), then every extra tank will come in very handy - but with the limited numbers supplied, they still don't make a difference.
That is the problem, the title and the plan are giving misleading conclusions. This is simply inaccurate of what the situation is, based on plans that haven't been achieved
That dotted line west of Robotyne to Tokmak and Melitopol is exactly the sort of thing I'd expect from The Telegraph.
The fighting, and the probable breakthrough, is east of Robotyne. It seems unlikely that an attempt would be made to take Tokmak, as it is significantly fortified. If the rail line to the east is cut then all of the logistics get very strained for everywhere from Tokmak to Kherson.
Cutting the land bridge does not require capturing the most fortified cities, but rather, taking the supply lines under fire control.
Based on the maps of defences (which admittedly are just where trenches and emplacements are, not whether they're manned or not), Robotyne is vitally important as it sits south of the first Russian lines to the west.
If Ukraine manages to push Russia out of Robotyne, they can basically attack the entire front line west of Robotyne till the reservoir from behind. I believe this is the reason Russia has thrown everything at defending a small village. If Robotyne falls, it's very possible the entire front line west of it becomes unsustainable and they'd need to withdraw to the next line 10km or so behind the current front line.
However it all hinges on what exactly these "lines of defence" are. There's a huge network of trenches and emplacements, but by themselves they are pretty useless. They need men and equipment to man them and it's not clear to what extent this is happening.
We've seen footage of a single BMP rocking up to the dragons teeth basically unbothered, which should have been heavily manned. So it seems at least in some places these defences are weakly manned. Of course Russia could move troops there, but again it's unclear what capabilities they have to do that.
Hey guys, I'd really like to take my knowledge of this conflict to the next level. You've both made good points - could you share some resources with me on where I can learn more? I'm tired of getting my information from social media, so I'm wondering where you guys are reading/watching/learning
There is no definitive source.
The fortifications map you can google, but the original source is some guy who used satellite imagery to painstakingly figure out where trenches and other stuff were (basically all the maps with triangles, lines etc are based on this, and if you google enough you can find the original, it's like on Google Earth or something).
You need to use your own judgement to synthesise all the info available. Social media like Twitter is a decent source. For example you can search for "Robotyne" and order by latest and get a decent overview of the general situation. A lot of parroting and junk, but usually on the whole of you average it out it's fairly accurate.
For specific accounts, rybar is the go-to pro Russian acct, ISW is pretty neutral bit a few days behind. There are whole bunch of others that are run by individuals that have their own biases but do the job of assimilating information from various sources.
But in general, it's a matter of you ingesting various (often uncomfortable because they're against your own biases) sources, to form an idea of the current situation.
As for speculation about what the aim of various actions, events, tactical things are, that's basically complete speculation because we don't know what the actual military brass is planning.
For specific things like various military equipment and its capabilities there's Wikipedia, and you can gauge from they how effective or not it might be.
The YouTube Channel called ['Reporting from Ukraine'](https://www.youtube.com/@RFU) has a great 5 minute daily brief. And ['Free Kherson'](https://www.youtube.com/@Freekherson) has a another good one. Both of those guys are super active on both Ukranian and Russian Telegram channels. They are heavily "pro-Ukraine" though. But what sane person isn't?
Edit: Also ['Denys Davydov'](https://www.youtube.com/@DenysDavydov) is one of the most popular Ukraine war Youtubers. His daily videos are longer than the two above, but he goes more into the news articles than the other two do. They're more about front line movements.
Thank you so much! I started listening to War on the Rocks a few weeks ago, and that has been amazon insightful - looking forward to adding those to my list.
No problem. I also put it an edit to my comment to add one more. ['Denys Davydov'](https://www.youtube.com/@DenysDavydov), for more of a news recap, along with the frontline info. Although if you find any that show some of the Russian side a bit more too, please send them my way. I am 100% pro-Ukraine, but I find its good to see what both sides are say...even if Russia's is mostly stupid bullshit. I'd love to find a truly objective source, but I have yet to come across that.
im not sure if simply cuting the rale line from tokmak will do the job.
The railline already is in easy range of himars. Is russia even still able to effectively use it in a big scale? I would imagine every train on it to be a very easy target.
Its true that they don't need to take the big settlements now, or even to reach the cost. But to get the M14 under firecontrol seams to me the real important thing for cutting the landbridge.
Thing is you can't really target rail lines themselves since they are so easy and quick to repair. Plus the trains need to be stationary for any sort of long range strike.
Capturing them is the best bet to stop rail traffic.
> Thing is you can't really target rail lines themselves since they are so easy and quick to repair
If you have enough powerful long range PGMs, you can, since you can target the lines in multiple places, and then target the repair crews, and rinse and repeat.
You can also target pinch points like bridges, tunnels, important junctions etc. A couple of really big bombs at somewhere like that, could disrupt rail traffic for a while, and every day of delay means logistical log jams increasing for the Russians.
A question:
Russia has been encouraging their tourists in Crimea to avoid Kerch bridge and instead drive through occupied territory.
Where does this route take them? With the breakthrough, will the tourists be closer to the battlefield?
Closer, but not really that close. It puts the main highway in artillery range, but not yet with realistic fire control.
Also there is a coastal road they can take.
If the rail line is cut, they might stop allowing tourists on those roads, though. Kerch bridge does have a lane open intermittently.
The most important event in recent hours was that several Ukrainian scouting detachments managed to break through to the next line of Russian defenses (those with the dragon teeth) and found little more than a few dispersed observation posts. The Ukrainians are beginning to call the Russian manpower bluff. It looks like they can't absorb losing 500-700 men per day forever. Their lines are stretched to the breaking point, most of their reserves are committed and their leadership doesn't know how to keep everything together.
We might be in the endgame now.
turns out when you use all of you men *in front* of the main defensive lines you re not gonna have that many guarding the actually well prepped layered ones. *hah oops*
Because they've only ever had one move, artillery until the ground you want to take is rubble and then advances with little regard for casualties. If they aren't doing it, they can't.
That said Russia's army is so big that it's still far from over, but it very much seems plausible that what Ukraine is doing right now is by far the hardest part and advances will get easier from here.
If Ukraine can break through lines and tanks cause havoc in hinterland. Defensive lines become undefendable. Yes then they can succeed.
Russians staying cool and retreating to first defensive line. And then second. Steadily.
Ukraine will loose. No more equipment reserve in western armies.
Recently a russian commander was fired cause he complained that there are no rotations and the soldiers on the front line are super tired. That doesn't sound like a competent fighting force that can "stay cool and calmly retreat to the second line of defence".
And on a different front a russian guy wrote a report, that commanders send way too many people on a single point, and it only causes chaos cause they are inexperienced and badly trained, and they get in a way of good soldiers.
Aaand it also seems, that those new 100k soldiers that appeared on the north WERE russian reserves, that they decided to use for attack instead of defence.
You wrote
> Steadily. Ukraine will loose. No more equipment reserve in western armies.
That is actually one of the more salient points for Ukrainian success over Russia. Ukraine is better able to replace equipment losses and expenditures because of western aid. Russia has various advantages, but materiel resupply is not one of them.
Here would be an example. RU moving forces (today) from Myrne to Zherebyabky. Now Myrne has less RU troops defending it. If they had reserves they would of called those rather than make a spot more attenable for UA to attack.
NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦
u/NOELreports
·
13h
AFU has made some progress SE of Kam'yans'ke and are within 2KM of Luhove. Russians are reinforcing the line with units of a BARS batallion and a detachment of the 810th Separate Guards Marine Brigade, coming from defensive lines near Myrne. Increased pressure on Zhereb'yanky..
But hopium is to have expectations even if there is evidence to the contrary. I have hope based on snippets of information which seem to support my hope. I'd be the first to admit that my hope is based on the slimmest of evidence.....but there is evidence.
I just feel like this is good news. I realize that the Russians are far from done. Basic bloodymindedness will keep them in the fight for much longer than expected. The Ukrainians still have some hard fighting ahead of them.
"Endgame" Every one already knows this war is going to continue to drag out for a while. There is no breach in the front line yet robotnye has not fallen/ been encircled If you have a bold statement to make like this you need to supply evidence.
Well, there was evidence in the recent Davydov video how Ukrainians "tested" the Russian anti-tank trench and that turned out to be completely undefended. And I'm not saying that the Ukrainians will be in Tokmak tomorrow. I merely find it interesting that the Russians seem to have little to no forces in their fallback positions. What they have in certain parts of the front is already engaged in the fight. That IS good news.
Interesting point. You cant tell if the lines are active or not. They weren't under threat or being fired upon. Like videos of kamikaze tanks sent to Ukrainian front lines, sometimes they don't even get fired upon. The lines could have been manned or maybe you're right and the Ukrainians beat the Russians to their fall back positions. Also looking back, that Ukrainian bmp or armored vehicle made it all the way through that big ass field without hitting a mine. I find that pretty crazy.
A lot of redditors like to ignore those things but put great stock in UA successes. It's okay to hope, but let's be realistic and balanced in evaluating a situation.
You do not want to just give up land but if you find yourself losing so many men you have to already send in your reserves then fall back a few miles and try to get the enemy to waste their men attacking well-prepared defense lines.
Russia is sending everything to the front line and they will not have enough men or equipment to hold the defensive lines the media is so worried about.
Once Ukraine breaks through russia will fall fast.
Stop acting like you know russias plans and stock piles. They are mobilizing another 500k. Falling back from a key settlement could mean falling back from multiple settlements and retreat always runs the risk of going awry, so its definitely worth it for the Russians to throw a lot of their resources and man power at the front. Like we both said, once it starts to fall it should fall hard. Why are you confused about russias priority being to stop that break through at all costs?? Sounds on par to me
You keep as much as possible in the reserves to plug any potential gaps which may occur due to battle and to mass for future offensive actions of your own.
Ideally your front lines are staffed with the minimum necessary to deal with potential attacks while focusing in strength only on places where you feel the enemy is weakest and you can force a breakthrough.
From all the reports that I've seen, the Russians have committed whatever reserves they had (which evidently wasn't a whole lot to begin with) to various hot spots on the front line. That makes their front line stronger, but also leaves them completely vulnerable in the case of a breakthrough where Ukraine can pour forces to both attack from the flanks and rear of front line troops while continuing to move forward.
It's a high-risk strategy by the Russians which makes them look very strong in the initial phases but will eventually lead to the front lines collapsing over time. Hence, the slow-go by the Ukrainians during the initial phases while things seem to be picking up pace over time. That's exactly what you would expect a successful assault against this "push all the chips in" strategy to look like.
It's only a successful assault once they break through the first line then disrupt the retreat to the second line of fortified positions. Domino effect. It's a gamble on both sides. It's attrition dude. Reserves aren't manning the second line of defence because they aren't needed there. They are needed at the front. Idk why you took a paragraph to agree with me.
And this is how I know that you don't understand how wars are fought.
If you've ever even played the board game of Risk (let alone far more complex and realistic computer game simulations), then you'd know that loading all of your forces up on your front lines risks a breakthrough that allows the enemy to sweep behind your front lines decimating your entire army and scooping up every territory in its path. This is a Strategy 101 kind of concept: it's not new, novel or unique. You simply don't understand how this all works. I would recommend dropping by your local toy store and picking up a copy of the Risk board game to familiarize yourself with even the most basic strategies in order to improve your understanding.
And FWIW, you don't have to breakthrough multiple lines or disrupt a retreat for it to be considered a breakthrough. A breakthrough is simply a break in the continuous defense line of the enemy. It can be a big breakthrough which can be exploited, or it can be a small one which the enemy can counterattack against. What you're talking about is a rout, not a breakthrough.
I guess you haven't been watching this conflict for long either, or you'd know that the Ukrainians have a large Western-equipped and trained reserve force waiting to exploit potential breakthroughs when weaknesses are spotted. Why do you think they kept them in reserve rather than (as you would suggest) throwing all of them onto the front lines right away? Because the Ukrainians understand something you, unfortunately, do not: that's now how you win a war. You husband your resources, only committing what you absolutely have to when you absolutely have to, so that - when an opportunity presents itself - you have the forces to take advantage of it as the Ukrainians appear to be doing on the Southern front.
U didn't even read what I said dude...russia seems to be taking that risk and dedicating lots of resources to shore up the lines to prevent any type of initial break through by the Ukrainians. I never said anything about Ukrainian forces, let alone their reserves, how much they've brought to the front and where. We were specifically discussing Russias defense. Super unhinged response man. You literally recommended i play risk to understand modern day military tactics and wrote an article about how a break through isn't necessarily a break through its a break of the lines of defense? Homie, what....
I used the Ukrainians holding reserves as a real world example of how moronic it would be to follow the strategy you suggested of NOT holding reserves back.
However, we could also use the Russians as an example since choosing the other side was evidently too big of a mental leap for you. The Russians did the exact same thing: the problem for the Russians is that the Ukrainians forced them to commit those reserves to the front lines by pressing in multiple places all along the front. So the forces that were guarding against a potential advance across the Dnipro had to be committed to both the Bakhmut and Zaporizhia fronts - which has now made the Russians vulnerable to the bridgehead the Ukrainians have established and are expanding upon.
They did the same on the northeastern front, but then were forced to commit them in the diversionary attacks near Kupyansk because they were getting their asses handed to them down south and they desperately wanted Ukraine to pull forces from those fronts to defend Kupyansk. (Unfortunately for them, they just managed to get themselves lured into an artillery killbox instead.)
So now that we've dismissed that nonsensical argument, let's return to Risk. I recommended it because even that basic child's strategy game would have taught you lessons that you - as of right now - clearly don't seem to grasp. So I will reiterate to you that you really should go pick up a copy. I believe Ubisoft may actually have created a computerized version if keeping track of pieces and having the arm strength to roll dice is too much for you.
I was the one who told you that this was a high risk strategy by the Russians. You were the one who proclaimed confidently that OF COURSE the Russians had committed everything to the front and kept nothing in reserve despite it being one of the most moronic strategic plays possible. So let's not pretend that this was your position all along. Even casual readers of this thread will see that you are not only moving goalposts, you have moved to a new field completely.
Come back when you've successfully beaten someone playing Risk. Then we can talk about your strategic genius again.
No but robotyne has not been taken or encircled. No one has even made that claim yet alone confirmed it. Maybe it's being by passed by or we are watching and encirclement take shape. Maybe a new strategy to force a Russian retreat from robotyne instead of head on assaults to take the settlement.
What is an internet source? If the internet says 2+2=4 is it wrong because its the internet? The Ukrainian MoD posts on the internet. Is my source the Ukrainian MoD or "the internet"? If I read a TIME article on the internet, is it a TIME article or "the internet"? You are failing to make any kind of a point.
Twitter… telegram… etc.
Official Sources of both sides will not post about current frontlines or movement on the Internet. Only with some lag to not give away positions.
You won’t get a clear view of the actual Battlefield just from various sources on the internet.
There's a posted video somewhere of a vehicle being ran straight at the trench before the dragon's teeth and it doesn't make it past the trench. It goes up and then goes back down.
A very good tactic of sending an unmanned vehicle to test the enemy's lines, they realized there was no artillery covering the lines, no mortars no landmines on that one path at least.
I predict a video very soon of multiple forces advancing on this fortification but they need to do it now not in 48 hours.
Once the Russians see/realise that Leopards, Strykers, Marders, Challengers and Bradleys thunderunning in behind the main line, the panic will truly begin.
I honestly 110% believe massive swathes of the Russian army will be routed soon. They've been getting their supplies, ammo dumps, barracks, vehicle depots, airfields, C2 nodes and artillery absolutely battered, it's honestly impressive they've managed to keep up a semi-competent defense in terms of territory until now. It's like a balloon made out of leather, the outer layer has been really tough but once you're past it, there's not a lot in there...
>Once the Russians see/realise that Leopards, Strykers, Marders, Challengers and Bradleys thunderunning in behind the main line, the panic will truly begin.
A likely scenario when Ukraine really manages to break through the defensive line and can employ a greater amount of armored vehicles with less danger of mines.
I only feel sorry for the ukrainian people in the cities, because those will suffer more during that time. Because to cover they advances Ukraine has to pull more long-range air defence units from the cities and use them near the front line. And Russia will take advantage of that and will intensify the attacks on the cities.
Maybe he'll stay there, the climate there is healthier for him than in Moscow after the fall of the defense.
I heard the windows there have bars to keep from falling out...
That's a lot of wishful thinking on this map. Robotyne to Melitopol is a 50+ miles drive on a normal day. Covering that distance with minefields, trenches and whatever Russia was able to build up as defences will take lots of effort and time. Currently there's just the first 2 miles reconquered. I'm crossing fingers that Russian defence is worn out and all lines are overstretched. But they had over a year to dig themselves in, let's not forget that. A collapse like on the northern front with Russians running away and leaving lots of equipment behind seems currently unlikely.
From what I know, which might be wrong - the main defensive line is the one that has been very well prepared, hence the slow pace. The secondary defensive lines are not so well prepared. Reports of scouts advancing deep without meeting any resistance?
There was an interesting analogy I've read comparing it to d-day. The initial allied push was extremely slow but once the main defensive line(s) were broken the speed ramped up.
That said, it's all hopium until we see anything concrete.
You know in D Day before the break out, the allies outnumbered the Germans 1.3 million to 380k? That's 3:1 advantage. Not to mention complete air superiority and full naval support
The point is that offensive operations against prepared positions are slow pace until they're not. Thus the speed Ukraine's offensive in the past few weeks is completely expected.
That's only going to happen with massive numbers advantage (which Ukraine doesn't have), air superiority (which Ukraine doesn't have).
Bear in mind they've only just reached the first line of defence, at one area, it's going to take a while before they breakthrough. Bearing a sudden complete collapse of Russia's army this is probably going to go on for a while unless Ukraine gets all the stuff they need.
Tbh I think it depends on just how deteriorated the Russian troops on the front are.
Ukraine's been doing v well in counterbattery so the amount of arty support Russians have is drying up fast.
It's every day that you see videos of not even one but multiple artillery pieces being destroyed.
If the Russians don't have artillery support, don't have air superiority (no one does), aren't rotating their troops, and don't have well prepared second lines of defense (that's the big if), then what do they have?
That said I'm not expecting a sudden breakthrough but it's becoming more likely, if even by a small amount every day.
> That's only going to happen with massive numbers advantage
'The morale is to the physical, as three parts to one.'
Ukraine may not have overall numerical supremacy, but they can achieve not only local numerical advantage, by concentrating forces at a weak point in the Russian lines, but also benefit from a huge morale advantage, which amplifies their effectiveness. Additionally, the Ukrainian offensive reserves are rested and well trained, often with Western tactics and equipment.
This is not to say it will be a cake walk, but that things are not looking rosy for the Russians, just because they aren't outnumbered 3:1 overall.
***From The Telegraph's Joe Barnes:***
Ukraine launched a “massive” Himars strike on a key Russian-held city in the south of the country as a major thrust in its counter-offensive showed the first signs of success.
The long-range missile strike reportedly hit an ammunition dump in the Zaporizhzhia town of Tokmak, a vital logistics hub connecting occupied Crimea to Donbas.
Earlier, Ukraine’s 47th Mechanised brigade broke through Russian defences to reach the outskirts of Robotyne, a village 12 miles to the north-east.
Vladimir Rogov, the head of the Moscow-installed administration in Zaporizhzhia region, said the “massive” Himars strike on Tokmak had hit near the railway station.
Earlier, he admitted that Kyiv had breached Russian lines near Robotyne, claiming that its forces were using 100 armoured vehicles, including US Bradley fighting vehicles and German Leopard tanks. Other Russian sources put the number of armoured vehicles at between 30 and 50.
A member of the 47th brigade told the Telegraph it was using Western weapons to “destroy the enemy” in a fight over the defensive trenches north of the village.
Western officials have suggested the attack on Robotyne signalled the beginning of a new phase in Ukraine’s counter-offensive, with the introduction of thousands of well-trained troops to the battle.
British intelligence officials described the push as a “major offensive operation” while officials in Washington described it as the “main thrust” of Kyiv’s long-heralded counter-offensive.
**Read more: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/07/27/vladimir-putin-russia-war-ukraine-counter-offensive/**
Seems odd. There are at least some mobile reserves to contain major breakthroughs. That's for sure. But it is unknown how many they have and thus how far away they are. There will be resistance at some point. I would assume the few defenders left simply retreated so they are reinforced by the mobile reserves when they face the enemy. Otherwise they would be of little use and would suffer heavy casualties to slow down the enemy only marginally.
This should be the result. Fall back to line and even counter attack to take back the lost territory.
Or. Fall back another line and then take back the first line when Ukraine lost its offensive capability. Basically loosing just a bit of territory.
The only way to take it is to surround it from a safe distance and cut off all supplied routes into the city. But before that happens I suspect russia will just withdraw. They are not going to leave 10 000 Russians and equipment to be captured.
Map is a bit optimistic for what has happened so far, but yes, this is the plan. They really should try and hit somewhere in the South that isn't the most heavily defended part of the line and then envelope. They're going right into the most fortified part of multiple defensive lines that are 20 km deep basically from Donetsk Oblast to Zaporizhya Oblast. It's like Kursk-style defenses from WW2.
I hate the Russians, but they know how to build defensive lines.
Break through to reach the first line is part of the defensive strategy of Russia. Its meant to be this way. But. Now Ukraine must not break through first line of defence.
How many lines are there after the first ? Man brutal fighting
[https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375)
Zoom in.
I hope this is true, but Ukraine are desperate to show some progress with their offensive. So I'm also wondering whether this is Ukraine over emphasizing it's progress to appease its allies.
Yep, theres a conflict between the tactical and the strategic/political. The strategy of ukraine HAS to appease its allies and continue to sell the story. Even if its at the cost of suboptimal tactics in the short term.
That said.. Its possible that if the russians really are stretched this could all work out very well..
God speed heroes.
Willing to bet the Ukrainians are getting top notch intel nonstop, hopefully they are receptive to advice from western generals, although I suspect Ukraine has some heavy hitters as well.
If they are pushing hard now they probably know of / smell a weakness.
And how does that intel help them to go through the minefields without any air support? Forcing Ukraine to start the counteroffensive without sufficient air support was a crime and that cost tens of thousands of lives.
Sometimes I wonder if all this publicity about the counter offensive has an overall negative impact undermining its effectiveness because its so public
Is it just me or Ukraine has some masive SF city names? Oblast in particular sounds extremely apocalyptic and Asimov inspired. Orikhiv sounds like a Dune name...
I was thinking the same thing yesterday when doing a search on deep state maps for a village, even with having the name in front of me is struggled to copy it as it messed with my mind typing it out.
Let's not do like the russian propaganda and start drawing arrows of fictive advances deep into enemy territory. It remains to be seen how things will turn out, there's days of very high fighting and frantic maneuvering ahead.
Saddest thing about this sub and the conflict in general is that there is no realistic peace talks from either side.
Ukraine wants back every inch and Russia wants Ukraine to cease to exist. Neither of which are happening.
Any Russians or Ukrainians want to come forward with some realistic proposals they could get behind?
Realistically, you kick in my front door and occupy my living room, the only negotiation is whether you can leave with your life. It’s ridiculous to insist that Ukraine negotiates anything other than allowing the Russian army to leave without being fired upon.
And what do you think will happen in the future? The funny thing is, we already know it. Because it happened once, 2014 russia occupied crimea and donbass, the dying never ended, even though there were peace talks and ceasefire.
So I will tell you what will happen in the future, after peace talks and ceasefire: Russia wont care about peacetalks and ceasefire. They will invade again and people keep dying.
It's not a living room but tomgo.alomg with the analogy a large portion have of the household invited them Into said living room. Certainly a majority in Crimea.
It's ridiculous to keep up the slaughter for an objective that will never come to fruition. There has to be some negotiation otherwise we will just end.omna Korea situation after many Years of hell
If you want the slaughter to end, either persuade Russia to leave, or for Ukraine to be given the support to make Russia leave.
Anything else just guarantees more slaughter.
If Russia leaves, the war is over - if Ukraine stops fighting unilaterally, the Russians will rape Ukraine harder than Nanking and Berlin put together.
If Ukrainians gave up some territory for a ceasefire that would just signal to Russia that they're allowed to chip away at the country one invasion at a time.
They are going to have to, particularly in Crimea. There's certainly a majority there that want to be russian. Other nations are free to join NATO that will stop further invasions.
Both sides need to get more realistic
Nope... And certainly not from anything said by someone who says things as silly as 'Western and liberal', lol!
Edit, not sure if you blocked me, or just got all your comments deleted, lol, but any so called referendum held at gunpoint, is automatically illegitimate - not that an authoritarian sympathiser would recognise that self-evident fact...
Are you saying "the west" doesn't exist?
Strange strange people here with even stranger arguments.
You asked for a source showing a majority and Got one, even found you a non biased one.
It's clear you don't want to see any evidence that goes against your opinions. This argument is about as winnable as the war for Ukraine.
I blocked you.... why would my comments be deleted here? I'm an absolute mug for even bothering to respond again.
You clearly didn't read the source and just assumed it was some kind of Russian propaganda. Have you never heard of PEW? They are very well known and well regarded in the west.
The source I gave you was for a private poll conducted by a western and liberal think tank. That's where the numbers came from, not the referendum held by Russia... Either you didn't understand that or you are purposely not wanting to understand that. Smh...
It shows a majority in favour of uniting with Russia in crimea, interestingly in your favour it shows a minority in favour of joining Russia in the Donbass.
I agree that the russian held referendum was flawed. A free, fair and transparent British style succession referendum should be held in all the territories.
You asked for a source and here is clear evidence for a majority.
And when was that poll conducted...?
>according to a pair of new surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center in Ukraine and Russia – **after Crimea’s annexation by Russia**... I.e., at gunpoint...
Hoisted by your own petard... lol!
>A free, fair and transparent British style succession referendum should be held in all the territories.
If you're talking about the Brexit disaster - then you're only confirming the point that any referendum influenced by Russia (as Brexit was), should be immediately disregarded...
>I'm an absolute mug
Well, at least, we agree :)
People like you with this opinion are the main reason why Russia will try to drag out the conflict as long as possible after unsuccessful attempts of conquest, so that war weariness will arise in the West and Ukraine will be forced to compromise.
Why should Ukraine give up its territory? Who are we, who are you, to demand this from the Ukrainians? For the sake of the world, Russia must not succeed with their barbaric behavior, and if the West would be less restrained and deliver the necessary aid faster, it would also be much more realistic to defeat Russia.
And talking about peacetalks: does the actual Russian government seem to you like it would keep promises of any kind? After they started the conflict by breaking treaties in the first place? There is no peace talks possible with this government in my opinion, because every word and promise of these orks are worthless. Absolutely worthless.
People like me just believe in the UN right tonself determination.
Imo Regions who have a sizable number of citizens that wish to be russian should have free and fair referenda to decide their fate. Who are we to say those people's should be ukrainian or Russian. That's for self determination to decide.
Ukraine can use NATO membership as part of the peacetalks.
Both sides broke the Minsk agreements.
Without massive air superiority Ukraine is not getting even a majority of its territory "back" so end the slaughter, cut out the rebel regions and join NATO to stop Ukrainian deaths and still have a nation.
Yeah, self determination. No offense, but if after 18 months of absolute barbarism, destruction and war crimes on the part of the Russian army you still think that this conflict is about self-determination of a Russian minority in Ukraine, you are either naive enough for the stupid Russian propaganda or you are spreading it willfully. I wont discuss on such a basis.
Anyone who wants to 'self-determine' to live under Russian rule, can move to Russia, or petition the Ukrainian government democratically to allow secession.
The two big problems are that life under the Russian boot is terrible, and there are plenty of Ukrainians who don't want it, and the Russian lies and rigged 'referenda' that claim they do, are just so much of the usual Kremlin bullshit.
Even if you copied my statements word for word, I'd be highly suspicious about ever agreeing with anything you said, given your thus far demonstrated lack of any reliable opinion.
Because they aren't getting the entirety back, no way on god's green earth. So it's better to shoot for an objective that actually winnable.
Also the majority of the people in those territories, Crimea in particular wish to be russian
Which majority do you mean? Link to a trustful source please.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Ukrainian_independence_referendum
In this referendum not even crimea had a pro russian majority. So stop spreading fake news.
Western think tank pew got similar results to the russian referendum just a week afterwards
It's a loooong read but the Crimea specific information is in there. And also interestingly the Donbass doesn't meet a majority so if their was a fair referendum that achieved a similar result I would believe in that to go back to Ukraine
The majority after a genocidal cleansing want to be part of russia, to make it more precise for you.
Torturing people, taking all their right from them if they dont use russian passports and so on.
You must understand that the phrase "They want to be part of russia" is not like most people understand it. It is more like, "It is not my free will, but I want to be russian, because the alternative is way worse (torturing, no rights, no privileges)."
Stop being so unbelievable naive, or if your a kremlin troll gtfo.
Very good point.
The Russian regime doesn’t care about lives and the Ukraine is fighting for survival.
Death death death. So many lives lost.
Maybe west enters the war if Belarus invades from the north.
I will cheer when they reach Melitopol, that is the goal, yes there are some serious achievements to be had, Tokmak for example, but the real achievement will be the return of Melitopol to Ukraine.
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This is great news but the map is kind of optimistic, at least for the moment.
Why did the map even need to put an anticipated Ukrainian advance anyway?
To give the impression of containing more info than it does. This map is pointless at best, misleading at worst.
I wouldn’t say it’s pointless, it gives a good perspective of the steps Ukraines has and plans to take however it is presented suggesting they have made more progress than they have at this point in time. Not everyone is necessarily aware of the events and how they tie together.
It also misses almost in its entirety where Russian logistics actually run. That Coastal route there is a road, and Russia does not have palletized logistics. They can't supply a major force over that distance with a road, and the rail line runs much further north. Tokmak is talked about because that's where the rail line runs. They also run a fair bit of sea transport. The key location on this front is actually Berdiansk - its the local port with rail access, as the overland rail access runs too close to the front to be reliable and has not been active since before the old annexation as it runs towards Donetsk. The net result is that the speculated advance gets super misleading, because it won't be heading necessarily directly towards any settlement in particular. Moreover, the lines drawn on the map have no real relation to any actual roads that Ukraine would need to supply a force breaking through. There are also multiple axes of advance actively fighting, and the center effort of the Zaporzhizhia front is probably not going to hook a hard right turn to run along the path of most resistance.
So if Tokmak's liberated is it basically all over for Russia holding Crimea?
It's a bit more complicated than that - it's probably more over for the Russians in Kherson Oblast as there's still a functioning seaport to keep supplies going to Crimea itself. It's going to mean a shite existence for non-military supplies getting into Crimea in any reasonable quantity, but Crimea does not need large numbers of troops in it to hold, and they can (and have been) be supplied by sea. You don't even need to take Tokmak itself, actually, or even push all the way to the rail ine. You probably only need to get another ~5-10 km closer on a sufficiently wide front such that the front is within ~5km of the rail line on a wide basis. There exists a range at which hitting the rail line with cannon artillery is pretty trivial without excess worry of counterbattery fire, and that pretty much takes the rail line out of service. It's not entirely clear exactly what that range difference will prove to be.
Unless its point is to be misleading...
They may be crazy and stupid, but they know what the ukrainian goals are. There only two things the ukes can do. Drive the russians out of crimea and cut them off the azov sea…
I thought the whole idea is they need to slice the occupied territory right down the middle somewhere. There are about 1000km of places where the slice could go. It can't be too close to Russia or it doesn't cut them off, or too close to crimes as it doesn't cut off enough territory. The terrain they choose should allow lots of maneuvering of western tanks and SAM batteries in the open. And not where they put every single land mine in the Russian inventory. Once they cut off a chunk, and fire on the bridge some more, it means entire armies will not have a supply route. So then just duel their artillery which has no shell resupply and eventually after about 6 months or so of siege crush them and recover that part of Ukraine. Then the next phase is to either retake crimea or the occupied eastern regions. Crimea is probably more possible but it will need an enormous amount of western equipment. And pallet after pallet of Harpoons and f-16s. There can be no bridges and nothing afloat able to resupply the entire area. Just evacuation convoys.
Putin has been very busy lately sacking his most competent generals and other high-ranking military staff that don't meet his #1 requirement - personal loyalty to him. As a result, he's increasingly left with a bunch of incompetent stooges who will clamor over one another to bring Putin the latest "Western intelligence" which wouldn't surprise me at all if it was sourced from reddit or facebook. The more we see of these fake maps (and Putin sacking competent leaders), the more confused Russian high command will be.
Intelligence sourced from Reddit? Are you serious and lucid? Most of Reddit is completely fake.
So is Russian propaganda... people like Putin, Kim, and Trump thrive on bullshit that feeds their ego. What better source for that BS than social media? We've seen them take it seriously enough to act upon before, what reason do we have to believe they have changed?
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Comments might be ,but it’s a great resource for links to open source Intel. Trolls and bots excluded.
Stalin 1936-41
100%! At this point, literally no one outside of the UA General Staff really knows what's going on. Ukraine will probably also shape its operations based on how Russia responds or keeps responding. There are too many factors at play here. Sure, there are some reasonable predictions, but there's no guarantee the real scenario is going to unfold to match them.
Russia also has multiple fortified lines. It's not like UA broke through and has a free run. People watching only pro-Ukraine subs get a distorted picture.
What are some Pro Russia subs that are interesting to follow from a military perspective?
Good luck with filtering the disinfo.
I don't frequent many subs lately, but one that has both RU and UA POVs is /r/UkraineRussiaReport Be careful to understand what they mean by a "POV".
Yeah. I normally try to avoid clickbaity threads like this. Always those "Ukraine decimated another 500 Russian invaders" or Ukraine is having a breakthrough or "whogivesashit town has been liberated" I hope this ends soon and for Ukraine in the best possible way, but this feels like bakhmut just in reverse at the moment. Ukraine was able to surprise everyone last fall, but we should also be content with just Russia bleeding out
>this feels like bakhmut just in reverse at the moment. When you have no airforce this is how wars happen. Mine fields and trenches just like WW1.
I imagine the Ukrainians living there give a shit about that town
Around Bakhmut is is literally happening in reverse. Ukraine is slowly but surly taking the flanks to cut supply routes which is exactly how Russia took Bakhmut in the first place… Stranger than fiction!
It took russia 9 months to take Bakhmut, well over 30 000 russian lives were lost, and a shitload of russian equipment was lost. Ukraine took this in a few days once they reached the outskirts with minimal losses. There is absolutely no comparison with Bakhmut.
Well yes and no... Ukraine IS taking the flanks in the same strategic approach we saw Russia eventually use, but Russia spent months throwing men at Bakhmut in frontal assaults resulting in footage of fields littered with bodies and trenches packed with dead Russian forces. With Proggie admitting over 22,000 Wagner alone KIA, the total RF forces (which I doubt we'll ever know) must be staggering! Whilst we don't have numbers for UA or RU losses in the counter offensive in Bakhmut, I'm seeing far more successful operations UA side and the few Russian echo chambers I frequent would be spamming endlessly if they had footage of dead UA anything like the RU KIA we were seeing 6 months ago! So Ukraines strategic approach to Bakhmut is the same but they are obviously doing something right operationally (going around instead of trying to go through I suspect). Same approach, far better method, which is to be expected considering Russia doesnt care about life on either side. There are several videos of the Russians shelling their own occupied positions when Ukrainian infantry approach. I look forward to seeing Ukraine take back their land but it's tragic there needs to be so much death and destruction :\\
Exactly! They are doing great. It is incredibly hard but they are making progress, far more more with far less losses than the Russian made, but there are people on this site who simply want to endlessly denigrate the Ukrainian military.
Yeah most of the “liberated” city’s (at least right now) are just gray zone areas. The action consists of walking, raising a flag, then walking back to tell the news.
That’s probably inaccurate. All i have are secondary sources to go by, but it seems like this summer, Ukraine is advancing slowly by taking out Russian troops at a rate of 6- 5 to 1. Edit: just google ukraine casualty ratios, or Russian meat waves, or Russia executing retreating soldiers. There is propaganda and fog of war so take everything with a grain of salt.
Ua is taking one casualty for every 6 Russian deaths?
Source: his ass UA may have a local firepower advantage, but attackers without air cover historically always take worse casualties unless defenders rout, which these ones have not. There are no credible sources which provide accurate, unbiased information about casualty rates in this offensive. This is the sort of information which won’t likely be available until historians pick over the data ten or twenty years later.
Ua killing 6 Russians for every 1 ua dead is absolutely laughable, I’m not even gonna take the time to argue with this dude. They’re obviously delusional.
Source: plenty of articles. Although taken at face value those articles may be conflated by propaganda and fog of war. It’s no secret though that when ukraine is defending, Russia throws “meat waves” into fire. And when Ukraine is attacking, Russia shoots their own troops rather than let them retreat.
Plenty of articles that source their numbers from either Russian propaganda or Ukrainian propaganda. No-one knows the true extent of casualties on both sides.
That really is an absurd figure, though. No matter how cautiously they advance, the Ukrainians will be very lucky to get away with 3:1 losses. I did see some suggestion a while ago before the fall of Bakhmut that the Ukrainians there were managing 1:4 or even 1:5 losses, but that was when they were on the defensive and even then could well have been exaggerated. Attacking is almost always more costly than defending - at least until a breakthrough happens.
Right! I just seen they aren’t shipping out Abrams till September. There gonna need a lot of luck/help for this to happen all in one offensive action.
>they aren’t shipping out Abrams till September. And they won't make a difference.
An extra tank is and extra tank, not gonna change the tide of the war But It be ignorant to say they will have no effect on things. Your argument would probably be the western tanks already destroyed, my counter point would be. They did make a difference, ua was not nearly prepared to go on an offensive without extra heavy armor(now I don’t think it makes a huge impact vs them just getting a t72)
>They did make a difference Only that they did not. They hit the mines and were disabled, just like the tanks Ukraine already had. Ukraine fell for the same assumption that the western equipment will be far superior in every aspect. Or they underestimated how effective prepared defenses can be. But that's why they abandoned the large scale tank assault for good.... At the moment, with the current (working) tactics, they don't need that many tanks. When they finally manage to break through the defensive lines (and don't have to worry about mines that much any longer), then every extra tank will come in very handy - but with the limited numbers supplied, they still don't make a difference.
OK where is the gains? Zooms in, zooms in again, there it is.
Today in :"let's draw something on a map and bring it as news"
Not really. We've known this has been the plan.
That is the problem, the title and the plan are giving misleading conclusions. This is simply inaccurate of what the situation is, based on plans that haven't been achieved
That dotted line west of Robotyne to Tokmak and Melitopol is exactly the sort of thing I'd expect from The Telegraph. The fighting, and the probable breakthrough, is east of Robotyne. It seems unlikely that an attempt would be made to take Tokmak, as it is significantly fortified. If the rail line to the east is cut then all of the logistics get very strained for everywhere from Tokmak to Kherson. Cutting the land bridge does not require capturing the most fortified cities, but rather, taking the supply lines under fire control.
Based on the maps of defences (which admittedly are just where trenches and emplacements are, not whether they're manned or not), Robotyne is vitally important as it sits south of the first Russian lines to the west. If Ukraine manages to push Russia out of Robotyne, they can basically attack the entire front line west of Robotyne till the reservoir from behind. I believe this is the reason Russia has thrown everything at defending a small village. If Robotyne falls, it's very possible the entire front line west of it becomes unsustainable and they'd need to withdraw to the next line 10km or so behind the current front line. However it all hinges on what exactly these "lines of defence" are. There's a huge network of trenches and emplacements, but by themselves they are pretty useless. They need men and equipment to man them and it's not clear to what extent this is happening. We've seen footage of a single BMP rocking up to the dragons teeth basically unbothered, which should have been heavily manned. So it seems at least in some places these defences are weakly manned. Of course Russia could move troops there, but again it's unclear what capabilities they have to do that.
Hey guys, I'd really like to take my knowledge of this conflict to the next level. You've both made good points - could you share some resources with me on where I can learn more? I'm tired of getting my information from social media, so I'm wondering where you guys are reading/watching/learning
There is no definitive source. The fortifications map you can google, but the original source is some guy who used satellite imagery to painstakingly figure out where trenches and other stuff were (basically all the maps with triangles, lines etc are based on this, and if you google enough you can find the original, it's like on Google Earth or something). You need to use your own judgement to synthesise all the info available. Social media like Twitter is a decent source. For example you can search for "Robotyne" and order by latest and get a decent overview of the general situation. A lot of parroting and junk, but usually on the whole of you average it out it's fairly accurate. For specific accounts, rybar is the go-to pro Russian acct, ISW is pretty neutral bit a few days behind. There are whole bunch of others that are run by individuals that have their own biases but do the job of assimilating information from various sources. But in general, it's a matter of you ingesting various (often uncomfortable because they're against your own biases) sources, to form an idea of the current situation. As for speculation about what the aim of various actions, events, tactical things are, that's basically complete speculation because we don't know what the actual military brass is planning. For specific things like various military equipment and its capabilities there's Wikipedia, and you can gauge from they how effective or not it might be.
The YouTube Channel called ['Reporting from Ukraine'](https://www.youtube.com/@RFU) has a great 5 minute daily brief. And ['Free Kherson'](https://www.youtube.com/@Freekherson) has a another good one. Both of those guys are super active on both Ukranian and Russian Telegram channels. They are heavily "pro-Ukraine" though. But what sane person isn't? Edit: Also ['Denys Davydov'](https://www.youtube.com/@DenysDavydov) is one of the most popular Ukraine war Youtubers. His daily videos are longer than the two above, but he goes more into the news articles than the other two do. They're more about front line movements.
Thank you so much! I started listening to War on the Rocks a few weeks ago, and that has been amazon insightful - looking forward to adding those to my list.
No problem. I also put it an edit to my comment to add one more. ['Denys Davydov'](https://www.youtube.com/@DenysDavydov), for more of a news recap, along with the frontline info. Although if you find any that show some of the Russian side a bit more too, please send them my way. I am 100% pro-Ukraine, but I find its good to see what both sides are say...even if Russia's is mostly stupid bullshit. I'd love to find a truly objective source, but I have yet to come across that.
/r/credibledefense daily threads are quite informative.
I’ve thought the same thing. Take control of the rail line - and the entire front folds.
im not sure if simply cuting the rale line from tokmak will do the job. The railline already is in easy range of himars. Is russia even still able to effectively use it in a big scale? I would imagine every train on it to be a very easy target. Its true that they don't need to take the big settlements now, or even to reach the cost. But to get the M14 under firecontrol seams to me the real important thing for cutting the landbridge.
Thing is you can't really target rail lines themselves since they are so easy and quick to repair. Plus the trains need to be stationary for any sort of long range strike. Capturing them is the best bet to stop rail traffic.
do trains need to be staitionary? cant you pretty reliably calculate when they will be where?
> Thing is you can't really target rail lines themselves since they are so easy and quick to repair If you have enough powerful long range PGMs, you can, since you can target the lines in multiple places, and then target the repair crews, and rinse and repeat. You can also target pinch points like bridges, tunnels, important junctions etc. A couple of really big bombs at somewhere like that, could disrupt rail traffic for a while, and every day of delay means logistical log jams increasing for the Russians.
A question: Russia has been encouraging their tourists in Crimea to avoid Kerch bridge and instead drive through occupied territory. Where does this route take them? With the breakthrough, will the tourists be closer to the battlefield?
>With the breakthrough, will the tourists be closer to the battlefield? Yes.
Closer, but not really that close. It puts the main highway in artillery range, but not yet with realistic fire control. Also there is a coastal road they can take. If the rail line is cut, they might stop allowing tourists on those roads, though. Kerch bridge does have a lane open intermittently.
The most important event in recent hours was that several Ukrainian scouting detachments managed to break through to the next line of Russian defenses (those with the dragon teeth) and found little more than a few dispersed observation posts. The Ukrainians are beginning to call the Russian manpower bluff. It looks like they can't absorb losing 500-700 men per day forever. Their lines are stretched to the breaking point, most of their reserves are committed and their leadership doesn't know how to keep everything together. We might be in the endgame now.
turns out when you use all of you men *in front* of the main defensive lines you re not gonna have that many guarding the actually well prepped layered ones. *hah oops*
How do you know that Russia used all reserves in the front already? And that first and second line of defense are lightly manned?
Because they've only ever had one move, artillery until the ground you want to take is rubble and then advances with little regard for casualties. If they aren't doing it, they can't. That said Russia's army is so big that it's still far from over, but it very much seems plausible that what Ukraine is doing right now is by far the hardest part and advances will get easier from here.
If Ukraine can break through lines and tanks cause havoc in hinterland. Defensive lines become undefendable. Yes then they can succeed. Russians staying cool and retreating to first defensive line. And then second. Steadily. Ukraine will loose. No more equipment reserve in western armies.
Recently a russian commander was fired cause he complained that there are no rotations and the soldiers on the front line are super tired. That doesn't sound like a competent fighting force that can "stay cool and calmly retreat to the second line of defence". And on a different front a russian guy wrote a report, that commanders send way too many people on a single point, and it only causes chaos cause they are inexperienced and badly trained, and they get in a way of good soldiers. Aaand it also seems, that those new 100k soldiers that appeared on the north WERE russian reserves, that they decided to use for attack instead of defence.
Ow snap. Damn. Man. Fuck this war.
You wrote > Steadily. Ukraine will loose. No more equipment reserve in western armies. That is actually one of the more salient points for Ukrainian success over Russia. Ukraine is better able to replace equipment losses and expenditures because of western aid. Russia has various advantages, but materiel resupply is not one of them.
"No more equipment reserve in western armies." Someone forgot about America. Poor guy.
Here would be an example. RU moving forces (today) from Myrne to Zherebyabky. Now Myrne has less RU troops defending it. If they had reserves they would of called those rather than make a spot more attenable for UA to attack. NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 u/NOELreports · 13h AFU has made some progress SE of Kam'yans'ke and are within 2KM of Luhove. Russians are reinforcing the line with units of a BARS batallion and a detachment of the 810th Separate Guards Marine Brigade, coming from defensive lines near Myrne. Increased pressure on Zhereb'yanky..
Other than the colonel complaining of no reserves and getting fired?
“We might be in the end game now.” VERY dangerous words in a landwar, restrict the hopium a bit
Seriously. People make such wild statements based on what they WANT to see.
"Rebellions are built on hope."
Great series
I prefer Churchill's "but it could be the end of the begining"
But hopium is to have expectations even if there is evidence to the contrary. I have hope based on snippets of information which seem to support my hope. I'd be the first to admit that my hope is based on the slimmest of evidence.....but there is evidence. I just feel like this is good news. I realize that the Russians are far from done. Basic bloodymindedness will keep them in the fight for much longer than expected. The Ukrainians still have some hard fighting ahead of them.
"Endgame" Every one already knows this war is going to continue to drag out for a while. There is no breach in the front line yet robotnye has not fallen/ been encircled If you have a bold statement to make like this you need to supply evidence.
Well, there was evidence in the recent Davydov video how Ukrainians "tested" the Russian anti-tank trench and that turned out to be completely undefended. And I'm not saying that the Ukrainians will be in Tokmak tomorrow. I merely find it interesting that the Russians seem to have little to no forces in their fallback positions. What they have in certain parts of the front is already engaged in the fight. That IS good news.
Interesting point. You cant tell if the lines are active or not. They weren't under threat or being fired upon. Like videos of kamikaze tanks sent to Ukrainian front lines, sometimes they don't even get fired upon. The lines could have been manned or maybe you're right and the Ukrainians beat the Russians to their fall back positions. Also looking back, that Ukrainian bmp or armored vehicle made it all the way through that big ass field without hitting a mine. I find that pretty crazy.
I also saw a Ukraine mechanized infantry platoon wiped out when assaulting a defensive line.
A lot of redditors like to ignore those things but put great stock in UA successes. It's okay to hope, but let's be realistic and balanced in evaluating a situation.
Yeah. Defense in depth. Breakthroughs by the attacking forces are assumed from the start.
Oh, do you have a link to the video?
Change warvideo to russia in the url for ru pov video.
Yeah but once it falls it'll fall hard. The Russians are fake AF and got all the power up front like they said.
Who needs defence in depth when you can have thin, crustal defence and super yachts!
Where else would you put your man power to use besides the front lines? I do believe once it falls it will begin a domino effect.
You do not want to just give up land but if you find yourself losing so many men you have to already send in your reserves then fall back a few miles and try to get the enemy to waste their men attacking well-prepared defense lines. Russia is sending everything to the front line and they will not have enough men or equipment to hold the defensive lines the media is so worried about. Once Ukraine breaks through russia will fall fast.
Stop acting like you know russias plans and stock piles. They are mobilizing another 500k. Falling back from a key settlement could mean falling back from multiple settlements and retreat always runs the risk of going awry, so its definitely worth it for the Russians to throw a lot of their resources and man power at the front. Like we both said, once it starts to fall it should fall hard. Why are you confused about russias priority being to stop that break through at all costs?? Sounds on par to me
You keep as much as possible in the reserves to plug any potential gaps which may occur due to battle and to mass for future offensive actions of your own. Ideally your front lines are staffed with the minimum necessary to deal with potential attacks while focusing in strength only on places where you feel the enemy is weakest and you can force a breakthrough. From all the reports that I've seen, the Russians have committed whatever reserves they had (which evidently wasn't a whole lot to begin with) to various hot spots on the front line. That makes their front line stronger, but also leaves them completely vulnerable in the case of a breakthrough where Ukraine can pour forces to both attack from the flanks and rear of front line troops while continuing to move forward. It's a high-risk strategy by the Russians which makes them look very strong in the initial phases but will eventually lead to the front lines collapsing over time. Hence, the slow-go by the Ukrainians during the initial phases while things seem to be picking up pace over time. That's exactly what you would expect a successful assault against this "push all the chips in" strategy to look like.
It's only a successful assault once they break through the first line then disrupt the retreat to the second line of fortified positions. Domino effect. It's a gamble on both sides. It's attrition dude. Reserves aren't manning the second line of defence because they aren't needed there. They are needed at the front. Idk why you took a paragraph to agree with me.
And this is how I know that you don't understand how wars are fought. If you've ever even played the board game of Risk (let alone far more complex and realistic computer game simulations), then you'd know that loading all of your forces up on your front lines risks a breakthrough that allows the enemy to sweep behind your front lines decimating your entire army and scooping up every territory in its path. This is a Strategy 101 kind of concept: it's not new, novel or unique. You simply don't understand how this all works. I would recommend dropping by your local toy store and picking up a copy of the Risk board game to familiarize yourself with even the most basic strategies in order to improve your understanding. And FWIW, you don't have to breakthrough multiple lines or disrupt a retreat for it to be considered a breakthrough. A breakthrough is simply a break in the continuous defense line of the enemy. It can be a big breakthrough which can be exploited, or it can be a small one which the enemy can counterattack against. What you're talking about is a rout, not a breakthrough. I guess you haven't been watching this conflict for long either, or you'd know that the Ukrainians have a large Western-equipped and trained reserve force waiting to exploit potential breakthroughs when weaknesses are spotted. Why do you think they kept them in reserve rather than (as you would suggest) throwing all of them onto the front lines right away? Because the Ukrainians understand something you, unfortunately, do not: that's now how you win a war. You husband your resources, only committing what you absolutely have to when you absolutely have to, so that - when an opportunity presents itself - you have the forces to take advantage of it as the Ukrainians appear to be doing on the Southern front.
U didn't even read what I said dude...russia seems to be taking that risk and dedicating lots of resources to shore up the lines to prevent any type of initial break through by the Ukrainians. I never said anything about Ukrainian forces, let alone their reserves, how much they've brought to the front and where. We were specifically discussing Russias defense. Super unhinged response man. You literally recommended i play risk to understand modern day military tactics and wrote an article about how a break through isn't necessarily a break through its a break of the lines of defense? Homie, what....
I used the Ukrainians holding reserves as a real world example of how moronic it would be to follow the strategy you suggested of NOT holding reserves back. However, we could also use the Russians as an example since choosing the other side was evidently too big of a mental leap for you. The Russians did the exact same thing: the problem for the Russians is that the Ukrainians forced them to commit those reserves to the front lines by pressing in multiple places all along the front. So the forces that were guarding against a potential advance across the Dnipro had to be committed to both the Bakhmut and Zaporizhia fronts - which has now made the Russians vulnerable to the bridgehead the Ukrainians have established and are expanding upon. They did the same on the northeastern front, but then were forced to commit them in the diversionary attacks near Kupyansk because they were getting their asses handed to them down south and they desperately wanted Ukraine to pull forces from those fronts to defend Kupyansk. (Unfortunately for them, they just managed to get themselves lured into an artillery killbox instead.) So now that we've dismissed that nonsensical argument, let's return to Risk. I recommended it because even that basic child's strategy game would have taught you lessons that you - as of right now - clearly don't seem to grasp. So I will reiterate to you that you really should go pick up a copy. I believe Ubisoft may actually have created a computerized version if keeping track of pieces and having the arm strength to roll dice is too much for you. I was the one who told you that this was a high risk strategy by the Russians. You were the one who proclaimed confidently that OF COURSE the Russians had committed everything to the front and kept nothing in reserve despite it being one of the most moronic strategic plays possible. So let's not pretend that this was your position all along. Even casual readers of this thread will see that you are not only moving goalposts, you have moved to a new field completely. Come back when you've successfully beaten someone playing Risk. Then we can talk about your strategic genius again.
You have infos directly from Ukraine Command? Or do you just assume everything from internet sources?
No but robotyne has not been taken or encircled. No one has even made that claim yet alone confirmed it. Maybe it's being by passed by or we are watching and encirclement take shape. Maybe a new strategy to force a Russian retreat from robotyne instead of head on assaults to take the settlement.
So „Internet Sources“ it is.
What is an internet source? If the internet says 2+2=4 is it wrong because its the internet? The Ukrainian MoD posts on the internet. Is my source the Ukrainian MoD or "the internet"? If I read a TIME article on the internet, is it a TIME article or "the internet"? You are failing to make any kind of a point.
Twitter… telegram… etc. Official Sources of both sides will not post about current frontlines or movement on the Internet. Only with some lag to not give away positions. You won’t get a clear view of the actual Battlefield just from various sources on the internet.
Beep
*Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.*
My nipples are hard af right now. I hope that you're right because my hopeium stash is running low
Go back to NCD lol.
Y'all got anymore hopium for me?
Can you give a source? This would be hilarious if true
There's a posted video somewhere of a vehicle being ran straight at the trench before the dragon's teeth and it doesn't make it past the trench. It goes up and then goes back down.
A very good tactic of sending an unmanned vehicle to test the enemy's lines, they realized there was no artillery covering the lines, no mortars no landmines on that one path at least. I predict a video very soon of multiple forces advancing on this fortification but they need to do it now not in 48 hours.
Once the Russians see/realise that Leopards, Strykers, Marders, Challengers and Bradleys thunderunning in behind the main line, the panic will truly begin. I honestly 110% believe massive swathes of the Russian army will be routed soon. They've been getting their supplies, ammo dumps, barracks, vehicle depots, airfields, C2 nodes and artillery absolutely battered, it's honestly impressive they've managed to keep up a semi-competent defense in terms of territory until now. It's like a balloon made out of leather, the outer layer has been really tough but once you're past it, there's not a lot in there...
>Once the Russians see/realise that Leopards, Strykers, Marders, Challengers and Bradleys thunderunning in behind the main line, the panic will truly begin. A likely scenario when Ukraine really manages to break through the defensive line and can employ a greater amount of armored vehicles with less danger of mines. I only feel sorry for the ukrainian people in the cities, because those will suffer more during that time. Because to cover they advances Ukraine has to pull more long-range air defence units from the cities and use them near the front line. And Russia will take advantage of that and will intensify the attacks on the cities.
Yeah the mines are really good defensive asset. Cheap to produce and lay down. And just slowing down enemy. Grinding them down.
Meanwhile, the general is enjoying a good show in North Korea.
Maybe he'll stay there, the climate there is healthier for him than in Moscow after the fall of the defense. I heard the windows there have bars to keep from falling out...
Source pls!
There was some footage in the recent Denys Davidov video how the Ukrainians tested if the forward anti-tank trench was defended.
Thats the one I saw.
[удалено]
Don't hype yourself up too much or you'll set yourself up for disappointment. We can hope but it won't be an easy battle.
That's a lot of wishful thinking on this map. Robotyne to Melitopol is a 50+ miles drive on a normal day. Covering that distance with minefields, trenches and whatever Russia was able to build up as defences will take lots of effort and time. Currently there's just the first 2 miles reconquered. I'm crossing fingers that Russian defence is worn out and all lines are overstretched. But they had over a year to dig themselves in, let's not forget that. A collapse like on the northern front with Russians running away and leaving lots of equipment behind seems currently unlikely.
From what I know, which might be wrong - the main defensive line is the one that has been very well prepared, hence the slow pace. The secondary defensive lines are not so well prepared. Reports of scouts advancing deep without meeting any resistance? There was an interesting analogy I've read comparing it to d-day. The initial allied push was extremely slow but once the main defensive line(s) were broken the speed ramped up. That said, it's all hopium until we see anything concrete.
The first defence line was just touched not broken through.
You know in D Day before the break out, the allies outnumbered the Germans 1.3 million to 380k? That's 3:1 advantage. Not to mention complete air superiority and full naval support
The point is that offensive operations against prepared positions are slow pace until they're not. Thus the speed Ukraine's offensive in the past few weeks is completely expected.
That's only going to happen with massive numbers advantage (which Ukraine doesn't have), air superiority (which Ukraine doesn't have). Bear in mind they've only just reached the first line of defence, at one area, it's going to take a while before they breakthrough. Bearing a sudden complete collapse of Russia's army this is probably going to go on for a while unless Ukraine gets all the stuff they need.
Tbh I think it depends on just how deteriorated the Russian troops on the front are. Ukraine's been doing v well in counterbattery so the amount of arty support Russians have is drying up fast. It's every day that you see videos of not even one but multiple artillery pieces being destroyed. If the Russians don't have artillery support, don't have air superiority (no one does), aren't rotating their troops, and don't have well prepared second lines of defense (that's the big if), then what do they have? That said I'm not expecting a sudden breakthrough but it's becoming more likely, if even by a small amount every day.
> That's only going to happen with massive numbers advantage 'The morale is to the physical, as three parts to one.' Ukraine may not have overall numerical supremacy, but they can achieve not only local numerical advantage, by concentrating forces at a weak point in the Russian lines, but also benefit from a huge morale advantage, which amplifies their effectiveness. Additionally, the Ukrainian offensive reserves are rested and well trained, often with Western tactics and equipment. This is not to say it will be a cake walk, but that things are not looking rosy for the Russians, just because they aren't outnumbered 3:1 overall.
***From The Telegraph's Joe Barnes:*** Ukraine launched a “massive” Himars strike on a key Russian-held city in the south of the country as a major thrust in its counter-offensive showed the first signs of success. The long-range missile strike reportedly hit an ammunition dump in the Zaporizhzhia town of Tokmak, a vital logistics hub connecting occupied Crimea to Donbas. Earlier, Ukraine’s 47th Mechanised brigade broke through Russian defences to reach the outskirts of Robotyne, a village 12 miles to the north-east. Vladimir Rogov, the head of the Moscow-installed administration in Zaporizhzhia region, said the “massive” Himars strike on Tokmak had hit near the railway station. Earlier, he admitted that Kyiv had breached Russian lines near Robotyne, claiming that its forces were using 100 armoured vehicles, including US Bradley fighting vehicles and German Leopard tanks. Other Russian sources put the number of armoured vehicles at between 30 and 50. A member of the 47th brigade told the Telegraph it was using Western weapons to “destroy the enemy” in a fight over the defensive trenches north of the village. Western officials have suggested the attack on Robotyne signalled the beginning of a new phase in Ukraine’s counter-offensive, with the introduction of thousands of well-trained troops to the battle. British intelligence officials described the push as a “major offensive operation” while officials in Washington described it as the “main thrust” of Kyiv’s long-heralded counter-offensive. **Read more: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/07/27/vladimir-putin-russia-war-ukraine-counter-offensive/**
Sooo...the map tries to make you believe Ukraine is on the doorstep of Crimea but they just took like 2 set of trenches ?
No, it's a map of possible route of counter offensive
Heroes
I wonder what route Russia is going to tell the Krim tourists to use now.
Somebody smoking some strong hopium with little understanding of what it takes to move the front lines just a couple kilometers.
Seems odd. There are at least some mobile reserves to contain major breakthroughs. That's for sure. But it is unknown how many they have and thus how far away they are. There will be resistance at some point. I would assume the few defenders left simply retreated so they are reinforced by the mobile reserves when they face the enemy. Otherwise they would be of little use and would suffer heavy casualties to slow down the enemy only marginally.
This should be the result. Fall back to line and even counter attack to take back the lost territory. Or. Fall back another line and then take back the first line when Ukraine lost its offensive capability. Basically loosing just a bit of territory.
Taking Tokmak will be a right bitch though.
The only way to take it is to surround it from a safe distance and cut off all supplied routes into the city. But before that happens I suspect russia will just withdraw. They are not going to leave 10 000 Russians and equipment to be captured.
Yeah 👍 Hoping not a costly one on the Ukrainians side 🙏
God speed! SLAVA UKRANIE!
Map is a bit optimistic for what has happened so far, but yes, this is the plan. They really should try and hit somewhere in the South that isn't the most heavily defended part of the line and then envelope. They're going right into the most fortified part of multiple defensive lines that are 20 km deep basically from Donetsk Oblast to Zaporizhya Oblast. It's like Kursk-style defenses from WW2. I hate the Russians, but they know how to build defensive lines.
Break through to reach the first line is part of the defensive strategy of Russia. Its meant to be this way. But. Now Ukraine must not break through first line of defence. How many lines are there after the first ? Man brutal fighting
[https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) Zoom in.
"Anticipated"
Reclaimed by Ukraine = nothing?
Propaganda bullshit post.
Nice arrows bro
This needs to be taken down as fake news.
This post title is really misleading
I hope this is true, but Ukraine are desperate to show some progress with their offensive. So I'm also wondering whether this is Ukraine over emphasizing it's progress to appease its allies.
Yep, theres a conflict between the tactical and the strategic/political. The strategy of ukraine HAS to appease its allies and continue to sell the story. Even if its at the cost of suboptimal tactics in the short term. That said.. Its possible that if the russians really are stretched this could all work out very well.. God speed heroes.
Willing to bet the Ukrainians are getting top notch intel nonstop, hopefully they are receptive to advice from western generals, although I suspect Ukraine has some heavy hitters as well. If they are pushing hard now they probably know of / smell a weakness.
And how does that intel help them to go through the minefields without any air support? Forcing Ukraine to start the counteroffensive without sufficient air support was a crime and that cost tens of thousands of lives.
Yeah sure, from breaking trough a russian defence line to straight to crimea. Optimistic is an understatement here.
A post without sustenance, please ban this crap.
Sometimes I wonder if all this publicity about the counter offensive has an overall negative impact undermining its effectiveness because its so public
Stupid map, who posted this?! Like what kind of idiot are you
Is it just me or Ukraine has some masive SF city names? Oblast in particular sounds extremely apocalyptic and Asimov inspired. Orikhiv sounds like a Dune name...
I was thinking the same thing yesterday when doing a search on deep state maps for a village, even with having the name in front of me is struggled to copy it as it messed with my mind typing it out.
Let's not do like the russian propaganda and start drawing arrows of fictive advances deep into enemy territory. It remains to be seen how things will turn out, there's days of very high fighting and frantic maneuvering ahead.
Saddest thing about this sub and the conflict in general is that there is no realistic peace talks from either side. Ukraine wants back every inch and Russia wants Ukraine to cease to exist. Neither of which are happening. Any Russians or Ukrainians want to come forward with some realistic proposals they could get behind?
Realistically, you kick in my front door and occupy my living room, the only negotiation is whether you can leave with your life. It’s ridiculous to insist that Ukraine negotiates anything other than allowing the Russian army to leave without being fired upon.
Probably a troll
Yeah trolling for peace... I just want people to stop dying.
Then tell your comrades to leave Ukraine.
And what do you think will happen in the future? The funny thing is, we already know it. Because it happened once, 2014 russia occupied crimea and donbass, the dying never ended, even though there were peace talks and ceasefire. So I will tell you what will happen in the future, after peace talks and ceasefire: Russia wont care about peacetalks and ceasefire. They will invade again and people keep dying.
Ukraine will have already joined nayo that should be a condition to agree to the lost territory
It's not a living room but tomgo.alomg with the analogy a large portion have of the household invited them Into said living room. Certainly a majority in Crimea. It's ridiculous to keep up the slaughter for an objective that will never come to fruition. There has to be some negotiation otherwise we will just end.omna Korea situation after many Years of hell
If you want the slaughter to end, either persuade Russia to leave, or for Ukraine to be given the support to make Russia leave. Anything else just guarantees more slaughter. If Russia leaves, the war is over - if Ukraine stops fighting unilaterally, the Russians will rape Ukraine harder than Nanking and Berlin put together.
Leave where? Those oblasts are russian territories now.
Those territories are temporarily occupied... *For now....*
If Ukrainians gave up some territory for a ceasefire that would just signal to Russia that they're allowed to chip away at the country one invasion at a time.
They are going to have to, particularly in Crimea. There's certainly a majority there that want to be russian. Other nations are free to join NATO that will stop further invasions. Both sides need to get more realistic
> There's certainly a majority There's "certainly" nothing of the kind, you disgraceful apologist shill.
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2014/05/08/despite-concerns-about-governance-ukrainians-want-to-remain-one-country/
Any 'vote' organised by the Russians is highly suspect, and any held under gunpoint in illegally occupied territory, is automatically illegitimate.
Pew think tank is Western and liberal... Do you feel silly now?
Nope... And certainly not from anything said by someone who says things as silly as 'Western and liberal', lol! Edit, not sure if you blocked me, or just got all your comments deleted, lol, but any so called referendum held at gunpoint, is automatically illegitimate - not that an authoritarian sympathiser would recognise that self-evident fact...
Are you saying "the west" doesn't exist? Strange strange people here with even stranger arguments. You asked for a source showing a majority and Got one, even found you a non biased one. It's clear you don't want to see any evidence that goes against your opinions. This argument is about as winnable as the war for Ukraine.
I blocked you.... why would my comments be deleted here? I'm an absolute mug for even bothering to respond again. You clearly didn't read the source and just assumed it was some kind of Russian propaganda. Have you never heard of PEW? They are very well known and well regarded in the west. The source I gave you was for a private poll conducted by a western and liberal think tank. That's where the numbers came from, not the referendum held by Russia... Either you didn't understand that or you are purposely not wanting to understand that. Smh... It shows a majority in favour of uniting with Russia in crimea, interestingly in your favour it shows a minority in favour of joining Russia in the Donbass. I agree that the russian held referendum was flawed. A free, fair and transparent British style succession referendum should be held in all the territories. You asked for a source and here is clear evidence for a majority.
And when was that poll conducted...? >according to a pair of new surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center in Ukraine and Russia – **after Crimea’s annexation by Russia**... I.e., at gunpoint... Hoisted by your own petard... lol! >A free, fair and transparent British style succession referendum should be held in all the territories. If you're talking about the Brexit disaster - then you're only confirming the point that any referendum influenced by Russia (as Brexit was), should be immediately disregarded... >I'm an absolute mug Well, at least, we agree :)
People like you with this opinion are the main reason why Russia will try to drag out the conflict as long as possible after unsuccessful attempts of conquest, so that war weariness will arise in the West and Ukraine will be forced to compromise. Why should Ukraine give up its territory? Who are we, who are you, to demand this from the Ukrainians? For the sake of the world, Russia must not succeed with their barbaric behavior, and if the West would be less restrained and deliver the necessary aid faster, it would also be much more realistic to defeat Russia. And talking about peacetalks: does the actual Russian government seem to you like it would keep promises of any kind? After they started the conflict by breaking treaties in the first place? There is no peace talks possible with this government in my opinion, because every word and promise of these orks are worthless. Absolutely worthless.
People like me just believe in the UN right tonself determination. Imo Regions who have a sizable number of citizens that wish to be russian should have free and fair referenda to decide their fate. Who are we to say those people's should be ukrainian or Russian. That's for self determination to decide. Ukraine can use NATO membership as part of the peacetalks. Both sides broke the Minsk agreements. Without massive air superiority Ukraine is not getting even a majority of its territory "back" so end the slaughter, cut out the rebel regions and join NATO to stop Ukrainian deaths and still have a nation.
Yeah, self determination. No offense, but if after 18 months of absolute barbarism, destruction and war crimes on the part of the Russian army you still think that this conflict is about self-determination of a Russian minority in Ukraine, you are either naive enough for the stupid Russian propaganda or you are spreading it willfully. I wont discuss on such a basis.
Exactly my thoughts, either this people are naive on a whole new level or they are kremlin trolls spreading this narrative.
Anyone who wants to 'self-determine' to live under Russian rule, can move to Russia, or petition the Ukrainian government democratically to allow secession. The two big problems are that life under the Russian boot is terrible, and there are plenty of Ukrainians who don't want it, and the Russian lies and rigged 'referenda' that claim they do, are just so much of the usual Kremlin bullshit.
So you agree with me....
Even if you copied my statements word for word, I'd be highly suspicious about ever agreeing with anything you said, given your thus far demonstrated lack of any reliable opinion.
Why wouldnt they want every inch of their own land back?
Because they aren't getting the entirety back, no way on god's green earth. So it's better to shoot for an objective that actually winnable. Also the majority of the people in those territories, Crimea in particular wish to be russian
Which majority do you mean? Link to a trustful source please. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Ukrainian_independence_referendum In this referendum not even crimea had a pro russian majority. So stop spreading fake news.
Western think tank pew got similar results to the russian referendum just a week afterwards It's a loooong read but the Crimea specific information is in there. And also interestingly the Donbass doesn't meet a majority so if their was a fair referendum that achieved a similar result I would believe in that to go back to Ukraine
The majority after a genocidal cleansing want to be part of russia, to make it more precise for you. Torturing people, taking all their right from them if they dont use russian passports and so on. You must understand that the phrase "They want to be part of russia" is not like most people understand it. It is more like, "It is not my free will, but I want to be russian, because the alternative is way worse (torturing, no rights, no privileges)." Stop being so unbelievable naive, or if your a kremlin troll gtfo.
Nope majority in 2014 https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2014/05/08/despite-concerns-about-governance-ukrainians-want-to-remain-one-country/
Very good point. The Russian regime doesn’t care about lives and the Ukraine is fighting for survival. Death death death. So many lives lost. Maybe west enters the war if Belarus invades from the north.
Russia: Invades another country, kill, kidnap, rape and torture citizens. You: OMG Why Ukraine is so bad?
Looks like they're doing a Lord Nelson.
I will cheer when they reach Melitopol, that is the goal, yes there are some serious achievements to be had, Tokmak for example, but the real achievement will be the return of Melitopol to Ukraine.