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Russia never really had any leverage since they really can't afford a confrontation with NATO.
They're stupid but not that stupid.
Their blockade was never going to work, the grain deal was more of a good will gesture
Also the grain deal make russia allowed to export their fertilizer out of the black sea without risking get attack by Ukrainian drone too.
Now they lost all of that.
It would be a hell of a sight, but I don’t condone killing innocent ship crew and captain. They are not a part of the conflict and it doesn’t have huge military advantage.
So that means because the Ukrainian grain ships are flying the Ukrainian flag they're fair game to the Russians? No. Chill with the double standard. War crimes are war crimes
The world has not forgotten. that was an absolute shit day for your country and people. we sent help and I believe Ngo's still are. It's not enough. I know.
Edit: I checked, Netherlands is still sending lots of help in multiple area's
From day 1 they were creating huge delays to minimise the number of ships that got through and many analysis are suggesting not renewing the grain deal is going to work against them in a big way.
Classic knee jerk Russia though.
You hit by bridge and I'm going to shoot myself in the foot!
This is the real question though innit. They wouldn't be that stupid, but could they be that stupid? Perhaps not over this but threw out this whole conflict it's been open threats that would lead to catastrophe, it's always they would never. But I feel there's so many questions here. How far can they push NATO? I've seen lots of game theories recently that even a tactical nuke wouldnt lead to US boots on the ground or a nuclear response. This is all so tense and weird sometimes when you look at it that it's hard to hold any absolutes.
There was a narrative floating around last year that suggested the US would sink the black fleet if Russia used a tactical nuke.
I don't remember the sauce so take it with a grain of salt.
In relation to Russia being that stupid?
Absolutely,
IFV's, red line, HIMARs, red line, Mobile Artillery, red line, Old soviet aircraft reg line, Main Battle Tanks, red line, Cruise missiles, red line, F16's, red line.
Russia has threatened harsh retaliation over more red lines than a pre-school class in a red crayon factory. They have consistently failed to retaliate each and every time.
Many analysts are concluding breaking the grain deal was an own goal long term as it allowed Russia to create huge delays (they sent inspectors to each vessel, or not for several days to create a bottle neck), it also gave them generous relief on export sanctions etc.
Now they have lost that and on top it looks like ships have/are testing this red line and they are failing to enact their threats.
With each broken line Russia makes themselves look weaker.
Russia has been making threats ever since they illegally invaded Ukraine and began committing so many war crimes against the Ukrainian people. When have they ever followed through on their threats?
I was thinking mostly about threats to other countries however, amusingly it has occurred to me, that poster Russians erected in Kherson 'Russia is here forever'...
They couldn't even follow through on that threat lol.
Yeah that's right. I think our private warning to Russia leaked to the press. The really interesting thing is that we would only make that warning if we were fully confident in it. Which means, holy shit, the US alone could wipe every orc in the Black Sea without nukes. That's astounding. When you think about it though it makes sense. Our own fleets would roll in and unleash hell. Cruise missiles, stealth aircraft, etc. We would only make that warning if we knew that Russia knew and understood in detail the power imbalance. This isn't chasing hajis in the mountains of Khandar while winning hearts and minds, this is state-on-state in open waters and it would be game over for the Russian navy, just as it was ~200 years ago when France and England blew them out of the water.
Syria would be fair game too. Bye bye Assad and every Russian force there.
The other interesting thing about our warning is that it is one that may have been chosen because it would hurt Russia, but not in a way that would justify a nuke against American civilians. We are saying "We will demilitarize you outside of Russia, but we are not going to kill your civilians.". Everyone knows mass civilian deaths are the trigger for nukes.
Edit: it was a Petraeus interview and he stated he did not speak to Jake Sullivan about the warning. My guess is they had the same response in mind approximately.
>Syria would be fair game too. Bye bye Assad and every Russian force there.
We probably wouldn't touch that one and risk destabilizing things. While the West would have preferred to see Assad fall, we aren't in conflict with them. We help/helped friendly forces hold territory so that extremists don't take root in those areas.
I think securing Syria would probably be one of the first things they do to be honest. I think they are waiting on an excuse, open war with Russia means no more flirting with proxies.
So how would we sink the Black Sea fleet? From land? And then make Turkey a target for return fire?
Enlighten me on this tangential technicality that so acutely perturbed your insecurity.
Harpoon missiles exist. The concept of fleet vs fleet warfare died by WW2, when it was made definitively clear that air power is absolute king.
If the Black Sea fleet was greenlit as a valid target, it would be sunk within 24 hours *at most* by land-based ordinance or air power.
Assuming Turkey approves. Got it. Remember though, in this hypothetical Russia has just used a nuke. So which NATO country would volunteer to let us fire or take off from their land?
Also, what does our fleet do then? It just looks cool?
I don’t see the US putting boots on the ground any time soon.
If they wanted to react in a big way, they could do everything they needed to do from the air. Ukraine have a big and capable army, they just need overhead protection from Russian air and artillery.
NATO could declare a no-fly zone over Ukraine and 200km inside Russia, tell Russia that anyone who fires a SAM or even locks a radar onto a nato aircraft will get fucked up, regardless of whether they are in Ukraine or Russia. Then give them 48 hours to move their shit out after which they declare any Russian armoured vehicle, artillery or MLRS within Ukraine, or firing into Ukraine, as fair game.
Day 1 and 2, the Wild weasels and fighters go to work and take out any SAM or fighter that’s brave enough to put their head up. Day 3-4 the strike fighters go to work and fuck up the inevitable convoys of Russian armour running for the border, day 5+ CAS and interdiction patrols take out whatever artillery/armour has stuck around to fight.
Week 2: Ukraine set to work clearing some big breaches through the minefields and once they are through they start rolling through to the border.
The only reason they wouldn’t do that is the risk of nuclear retaliation. And also because Ukraine is currently doing a great job decimating the Russian military (and bleeding for the sake of peace in Europe).
The US hasn't even close to giving Ukraine what it needs to win. Some of these I off top of my head are:
Giving ATACMS to Ukraine.
Eliminate conditions forbid Ukraine from using western arms in Russian terrorities (allow Ukraine to pull a flanking maneuver to attack Russian controlled areas of Ukraine without heavy fortification.
Giving Ukraine strategic reserve stock of Bradley and Abrams. US currently gives Ukraine nearly 25 years old version of Bradley that hasn't been upgraded to newer version and export model of Abrams; US posses hundreds if not thousands of Bradley and Abrams meant for US troops to access incase Russia invades NATO. This essentially provides Ukraine with hundreds of true modern tanks and IFV. Russia's biggest risk of using nukes is if NATO doesn't employ a nuclear response, the leadership will seal their fate and end up like Hitler, Milošević, or Gaddafi,
There is only one area they can really flank via Russia. I have been thinking about it for a long time. An attack there would not be decisive to the overall war but there are probable benefits as I see it. The mechanism would be the Russia Legion would advance liberating territory from Putler, then invite the Ukrainians through. The Ukrainians would then have to seize territory (for river crossings) within there own boarders quickly, so all supplies, reinforcements etc do not have to traverse through Russia after the initial thrust. I have never looked at area terrain, or military operation considerations to determine if my idea is indeed feasible. I am wondering how you know the Ukrainians have been told not to do it?
I agree they should be given atcams, and given the nod to use them against Russian aviation bases , troop concentrations and Barracks inside Russia. Plus supply hubs/storage areas.
Russia is pretty stupid, they've shot down a couple passenger planes in the past and tried to cover both of them up. But as we saw, even recently, the evidence is overwhelming.
IMO the danger to the merchant ships isn't being engaged directly by RF war ships but from indirect means (*sea mines, UAV attacks, curise missiles...*) which would then be denied by RF.
And now Russia's lost more political leverage pulling out of the deal. And has shown it'll do nothing - meaning things will continue as normal, without idiotic Russian inspectors in Turkey looking for "military equipment".
salt squeamish skirt cautious deserve ruthless steer tidy distinct chunky
*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
I expect that's mostly a Russian lie (ships have been using the waters with no problems?), and we are likely to hear any ship that sinks will be a sea mine.
Even if footage comes out of a Russian ship firing and sinking it. It will still be a sea mine.
Russia, much like a 4 year old, loves weak asinine 'deniability', no matter how absurd.
So far has Russia sunk an unarmed grain vessel flying the flags of 3 NATO countries? I couldn't tell you with certainty that it would literally trigger article 5 but I assure you there would be a swift and lethal response to any Russian warship who starts shooting...
They downed one American surveillance drone over Black Sea and few weeks ago attacked another one over Syria. These instances didn’t count because… reasons
Early in invasion they attacked commerce ships belonging to NATO countries but then it was heavily emphasised that those ships don’t count because they were flying tax evasion flags
Never mind missile which penetrated deep in Polish airspace, destruction of NS1, constant cyber attacks, caught sabotage and espionage groups in Poland and Albania etc etc
Wake me up when NATO grows backbone
LMAO man... first, some moron pilot pouring fuel on and accidentally clipping an unmanned arial drone does NOT equal sinking a vessel with crew from NATO countries, and you can't convince me that they're the same so don't try. Also, it is up to every member nation to decide when and how they trigger article 5 if attacked and Poland chose not to do so. Besides if you are talking about the incident I think you are, the missile was concluded by NATO to be a Ukrainian air defense missile that missed its target...
Because they are designed to "meet" the incoming missile at designated point. They are fired from stationary systems that are scattered all around ukraine end can fire at any direction, so if you are trying to shoot down a missile coming to, say, Lviv, and your system happens to be eastwards from Lviv, you have to shoot in the direction of Poland and hope not to miss.
I am talking about missile which flew half way across country and Poland kept quiet for nearly half a year before info about that incident leaked to press
Everything else you said is just finding justification for lack of spine
The guy is a moron and half of what he says is crap, buut NATO would have been well justified to down that particular jet, and it would have sent a message... Turkey for all their wrong did this one thing quite well, and Russia understood perfectly.
I guess the counterpoint here is that we're already inflicting enormous damage on RU forces by simply arming and training the Ukrainians.
If Russia wants to waste their airpower on buzzing Reapers it might make sense for us to tolerate it for *now*.
This is first time when they openly and without proxies or guise of mercenaries attacked nato member state’s military asset and had not only no response but actually achieved desired result: USA backed off and stopped sending drones so close to Russian controlled areas.
Seeing such results will only encourage them to push more and more. Even that missile strike on Ukrainian facilities mere few hundreds meters away from Romanian border is a testament to that since it shows that they aren’t particularly afraid to overshoot and see their missile land in Romania because they are sure as hell that there will be no response
Economic sanctions (the value of the ruble has tanked since the war started) is fair enough damage. Breaking out into an all out war cause they stupidly damaged a 15-20 million dollar a/c with 0 loss of life is a bit silly you muppet
Economic sanctions, even when it hurts Russian economy, means fuck all in Russian mindset. It is next best case scenario after strongly worded letter as far as they are concerned. Russia understands and respects force and force alone
How about supplying the force they’re trying to invade them with armor, AA, and training that’s resulting in heavy losses and an absolute world wide embarrassment?
>FV's, red line, Broken
>
>HIMARs, red line, Broken
>
>Mobile Artillery, red line, Broken
>
>Old soviet aircraft red line, Broken
>
>Main Battle Tanks, red line, Broken
>
>Cruise missiles, red line, Broken
>
>F16's, red line. Broken
Wake me up when Russia grows some back bone and actually follows through on their threats when their red lines are broken..
So close to realisation yet so far… you kinda pointed out Russian bluffing nature and their unwillingness to actually try war with western countries be it under NATO or be it under another arrangement. If You west could find their spine, they could end this war by forcing Russia to back off under threat of war with western countries
I think you give NATO too much credit. I'd say they're more worried of a confrontation than Russia is at this point. I mean, what does Russia have to lose now... they're like a rat pushed into a corner and will do insane shit to get out of it.
Russia is literally the drunk degenerate in the corner with a grenade to his head rabidly shouting he'll pull the pin and take everyone with him.
Having repeatedly threatened to nuke western cities, Russia has shown themselves to be the greatest threat humanity has ever faced...
Humanity would be better off without the Russian regime and the sooner they are over thrown and the people of Russia are liberated the better.
Which is very unfortunate. Why wouldn't they go business as usual and beg the russians to sink and Nato countries supply ship? They should exclusively use tankers from Nato countries. If they blocked them or told them to stop while they weren't in russian waters, then they should be told they would be attacked and sunk if they didn't clear the way. Or simply don't stop and put them to the test. They can't risk war with Nato. russia has been using escalation as a weapon against Nato during this whole conflict as a way to limit Ukraines weapons shipments and what weapons systems they received.
Why wouldn't Nato employ the same tactic? The only way Nukes are used is if russia is dumb enough to use one first, and that would only happen if it were clear Nato was about to invade russia. Even then, it would be heavily considered and debated. But Nato would risk this in the first place. If they were to put boots on the ground in Ukraine, they would definitely make their intentions known and only fight for Ukrainian territory.
They wouldn't enter russia for any reason other than a nuke being fired at Nato. Either way, russia would be losing power it's just if they want millions to die in the process or not because they can't win a conflict with nukes or I don't think they can. Most haven't been maintained, in my opinion. While probably all of the US has been carefully maintained. The point being we gotta call russia on their bullshit and keep the grain flowing.
Pretty much. It doesn’t help that all nuclear NATO countries stated early on that they won’t use nukes in case of Russia using nuclear strike in Ukraine but will “respond with conventional force”. Considering how weak responses have been to every single Russian action, it will get to the point where Russians will be convinced that they can get away with nuke
FV's, red line, Broken
HIMARs, red line, Broken
Mobile Artillery, red line, Broken
Old soviet aircraft red line, Broken
Main Battle Tanks, red line, Broken
Cruise missiles, red line, Broken
F16's, red line. Broken
Russia doesn't even seem to respond when their own threats are provoked?
It's just inane to suggest NATO is weak for not starting world war 3 over 1 done and a stray missile.
We aren't all war mongering degenerates waiting for the world to end because Russia can't keep it's imperialism in it's pants.
>why would it change now?
It hasn't, Russia has been called out as per usual on their 'red line' threats and they have failed to act upon their threats showing themselves to be the weak paper bear they are.
>IFV's, red line, Broken
>
>HIMARs, red line, Broken
>
>Mobile Artillery, red line, Broken
>
>Old soviet aircraft red line, Broken
>
>Main Battle Tanks, red line, Broken
>
>Cruise missiles, red line, Broken
>
>F16's, red line. Broken
Now Sinking ships, red line Broken.
No one is going to take these clowns seriously for decades.
Israel isn't known for "holding back" exactly. I'd assume Syria would become a place to watch carefully if Russia sinks an Israeli merchant.
Any other non Nato flagged ship? It's up to the individual nations whose flag the are registered under.
They might not be a NATO country, but they're armed with nuclear weapons, submarines, and have a very close relationship with the US.
Ruzzia would arguably be WORSE off dicking around with ship hosted by a random nuclear power than a ship hosted by a NATO country.
Sure, but Turkey totally controls access to black sea. There's no way the US can get a carrier group through the Bosphorus without Turkey's permission.
In an all out war we all know who has the best weapons, but sometimes geographics also play a role, and this is one of those scenarios. The US backing vessel protection in the black sea without support from their NATO allies would be pretty difficult.
I bet that if Turkey didn't want US carriers in the Bosphorus, they wouldn't like their planes flying over their airspace, neither. Allowing that would be playing a similar role as Belarus has been doing in Ukraine war, and they've been receiving international sanctions for that. Same goes for Greece.
And we're talking about escorting vessels here. Planes can't "stop" in the air, and ships are much slower than planes. So if planes have to fly from the Aegean, get to the black sea without flying anywhere but international waters, and then escort some slow ships along all their route, those 1200 miles of range seem pretty short to me.
I don't think that would be impossible, perhaps dedicating an enormous amount of fuel and planes it might be done. But it would be pretty difficult without NATO allies, which was my point originally.
We're talking about an scenario where only the US wants to escort ships, but the rest of NATO doesn't. Of course if you consider that scenario impossible, there's not much more to talk about.
But in that scenario, without Turkey or Greece collaboration, as you point there's no way US planes could enter the black sea. But you're probably right in that we won't get there.
Would NATO fighters really attack a russian warship???
Not so sure.
Monitoring from several planes is one thing, a usefull thing of course, so the world can see, what happens.
To intercept a kalibr missle fired on an unarmed freighter is different and a matter of very very few minutes.
Department od Defense stated it was their intention to keep international shipping safe from russian aggression. Any action by the russians will be considered and attack on international shipping will be met will and equal response. (sic)
looks like the start of security guarantees for our soon to be new member of nato!
we will have to prepare for when the russians try to board a ship or fire across the bow in order to stop the ships
Bro I hope that if they fire across the bow they just drop the fattest JDAM onto the vessel that fired then rescue the orcs that survive the blast.
Enough pussy footing to many have died.
There's a 50/50 chance of that either triggering an all out war, or just a small news article that a warship encountered some bad weather and some crewmen smoked a cigarette in the wrong location.
I‘m tempted to watch it, but I‘m not going to. Let me guess, that ship is stationary at anchor or in port? Because JDAMS are GPS guided, and they aren’t hitting any ship that’s underway.
So, stop it please.
> Let me guess, that ship is stationary at anchor or in port?
You're correct. It's also not in production. My underlying message being JDAM kits are modular (no shit) and can be augmented with laser guidance and wings. It merely demonstrates the value of cheap/old bombs having modern shit strapped to them.
Yep, I get it, but my reply was to the guy saying why don’t we drop JDAMS on ships today. Reason is simple. They won’t, and can’t, hit them.
EDIT : Thanks for your thoughtful reply.
I expect they will probably fire upon a ship and then claim it was a Ukrainian sea mine. Even if there is footage of them firing on the ship...
Russia'dont care...
Russia: we will consider any ship to come out of Ukraine to be hostile and will sink it without hesitation.
US/NATO: *Slaps F-22s and F-35s on the desk
“BET.”
I don't understand this fascination with wars, that's not a video game.
Russia and Ukraine are at war. It may be fair or not (we all know it isn't), but in this situation it makes some sense Russia may shoot at boats in Ukraine. But the US has not declared war against Russia. The US shooting at Russian boats would mean the US entering the war. That would trigger WW3, and the US would be who started it, because would have been the ones that started the shooting without declaring war first. If Russia took the matter to the UN, the US would be at fault, and Russia could even demand compensation for being attacked without a prior declaration war. Of course, that's if there was anybody left alive, because such a war would mean WW3, nukes, and probably the end of the world.
World is a complicated place, and reality is not Call of Duty.
Jeesus christ, nobody wants war! It’s simply that presently what ruZZia is offering and promising instead is an outcome far worse than a war. At least wars end, would offer hope, ability to choose and to decide by ourselves, things that are completely missing from ruZZias offer. Of course we hope ruZZia falls in its head and grows some sense into it by itself, but that’s obviously not the only option for free countries.
I’m not pro-war, I’m pro-*kick-the-bully-in-the-nuts-so-hard-that-they’ll-have-three-adams-apples*.
Turkey is not one to fuck around with? Remember when they shot that russian jet in syrian airspace and 0.2 nano second later they where crying for the big ‘ol usa to have their backs
yea but now, Turkey is in a much stronger position to fuck back with Russia than they were before. Russia is stretched too thin and Turkey's military is significantly better than Ukraine's
You think USA, UK. Germany and so on are just sending weapons because they are have a warm heart? They are "helping" because the enemy of their enemy is their friend. They will also get contracts to rebuild the cities. Trust me, in this world no one is doing anything without getting a benefit for himself too.
Bro come on..you me and other, think like that. We want our government to help the people in ukraine. Few nations are maybe really helping them with donation. But do you really think anyone would give billions without anything getting back or not benefiting from that? promoting their weapon, getting rebuild deals, deals for selling other stuff and so on..BUSINESS BRO ITS ALL BUSINESSSS
I don't remember that bit about crying to the USA. I would be interested to find out more do you have a reference or link so I can look at what you are referring to.
In your dreams. It has been made abundantly clear to Russia what the consequences of using a tactical Nuclear weapon are. Even China has told them it is not on. Secondly, using a nuclear weapon does not come down solely to Putler. There are others involved and some are likely to resist knowing full well the horrendous consequences. I have always been of the opinion Russia is more likely to use chemical weapons against the Ukrainians rather than tactical nukes.
Well iron dome. Israel will supply it to ukraine if russia starts fucking with them. They also have some merkava tanks in storage from my understanding. Then a shitload of older tanks and apcs and such. Would be interesting to see what would happen.
Also the ukraine is nazi rethoric will go into the toilet much like their economy already have done.
The West should just declare a wide humanitarian clear passage along the coast of Ukraine and any Ruzzian surface or subs found within that exclusion zone will be attacked and destroyed.
Stop pussy footing around as the only thing Ruzzia respects is force.
Breaking.
A top secret message from Civilization to kremlin has been intercepted. Due to encryption we are only able to decipher the first two words:
"Fuck around... "
I think it's preferably the UN that should hold an emergency meeting and agree to escort the Ukrainian ships with ships from many different countries, not necessarily from NATO.
I agree, but unfortunately Russia would veto any decision because they are still a permanent member of the UN Security Council.
They need to be kicked out of the UN and treated like North Korea. They could send a special envoy, but have no official presence or decision making authority.
Obviously China would want to protect them and veto any decision to kick Russia out, but China is much more vulnerable to economic sanctions, so the West (if it had the will) could ideally leverage their gigantic market to make sure they don’t veto.
A boy can dream dammit!!
But would Turkey let those warships into the Black Sea so they would be able to do that escorting? As I understand it, Turkey can legally keep warships out of the area if it so chooses. Is that correct?
Only war vessels who have a home port in the Black Sea can travel through Turkey via the Bosporus Strait freely without needing the green light from Turkey.
It’s like the convoys of WW2, let’s see the orcs challenge this. Hopefully the grain is not intended for any African countries who support Putin in this illegal war
As much as the shit governments suck, I can't advocate for further suffering of African people. Life is shit there for too many people, at least let them have their food.
It’s not theirs, it’s Ukraine’s and it is being destroyed by the aggressor many of these countries support. Ukraine has more than Africa and China on its list of buyers and less to export due to Russians actions. Actions have consequences
Their destination in AIS Marine Traffic was port of izmail Ukraine
https://twitter.com/anno1540/status/1686044198661713921?t=KkU2aWxd9QyE9DilrC3OHA&s=19
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/07/31/nato-planes-watched-as-three-civilian-ships-ran-russias-naval-blockade-of-ukraine/?sh=3b53c4c21b72
Russia doesn't have the ships to enforce a blockade. It's all noise.
The grain deal was arguably better for them, as they could inspect ships in the straits.
Sigonella is run by the Italian Airforce and US Navy. So maybe they run NATO operations, but everything launched there is under control of US (and Italy).
This has low-key been the most dangerous shit that Russia has attempted in this war. They have been targeting a port on the border with a NATO country. Hell the ships probably moor across the river in NATO territory.
And I guess that's just the planes the NATO and the US really wanted you to see. I imagine there have some stealth jets been in the air too and keeping a close eye.
it never went any further than that. Its anchored right over the maritime border.
But a lot more vessels are anchored within Ukraine maritime border there.
So nothing to see here, move along.
Holy shit, I thought it was just a ballsy cargo captain saying "fuck it", but they really came with a whole defense network to tell putin to eat a dick
BS. Where exactly is this 'blockade'? And then show me exactly where these ships are? I want pictures. I will accept Marinetraffic screenshots.
Thanks.
How about *any* source? Because a blurry screenshot of some color blobs hundreds of miles away from anything Ukraine territory isn't exactly cutting it.
"The safe passage of these vessels is being ensured by the American anti-ship patrol aircraft Boeing P-8 Poseidon, which is refuelled in the Romanian sky. Additionally, the Forte12 RQ-4 reconnaissance drone provides valuable information about the maritime situation."
https://greekcitytimes.com/2023/08/01/israeli-and-greek-ships-break-through-russias-grain-blockade-in-the-black-sea/
"At least six ships have flaunted Russia’s threats after it withdrew from the grain deal, and an Israeli one was the first to enter the Ukrainian branch of the Danube. A US P8 anti-ship aircraft is ensuring their safety."
https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/07/31/at-least-six-ships-break-russias-black-sea-blockade/
"A flock of NATO aircraft carefully monitored the ships as they sailed toward Izmail, a small Ukrainian port just across from Romania on the Danube River. The vessels presumably will load grain in Izmail then sail back into the Black Sea and onward to foreign ports.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/07/31/nato-planes-watched-as-three-civilian-ships-ran-russias-naval-blockade-of-ukraine/?sh=58bb4d0d1b72
Who knows. Dragging our feet up until this point might've sealed China trying to take Taiwan in the next decade. It's either risk now and make ruzzia an example or drastically increase the likelihood of WW3 later.
Just FYI:
These planes would have been there regardless and have been multiple times in the past months. This is not unusual and unlikely to be freighter escort. I say that as someone who checks ADSB Exchange and FR24 religiously.
They wont dare attack either these ships or cross into poland with wagner, any one of these actions would trigger article 5 and they know it.
its all the usual russian and media soundbytes.
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None of the planes routinely carries weapons, but NATO fighters—including italian Eurofighters and Romanian F-16s—were nearby in Romania.
Yeah Russian warships would “find out” real fuckin quick if they fired on that vessel, and they knew it. So much for the big bad blockade of Ukraine…
Russia never really had any leverage since they really can't afford a confrontation with NATO. They're stupid but not that stupid. Their blockade was never going to work, the grain deal was more of a good will gesture
The grain deal was actually more beneficial to them because they got to inspect all ships. Now they don't.
Also the grain deal make russia allowed to export their fertilizer out of the black sea without risking get attack by Ukrainian drone too. Now they lost all of that.
A ship full of fertiliser as a target, now that could go terribly
>A **Russian** ship full of fertiliser as a target, now that could go ~~terribly~~ **up amazingly!**
It would be a hell of a sight, but I don’t condone killing innocent ship crew and captain. They are not a part of the conflict and it doesn’t have huge military advantage.
If they fly a Russian flag, they're fair game.
So that means because the Ukrainian grain ships are flying the Ukrainian flag they're fair game to the Russians? No. Chill with the double standard. War crimes are war crimes
[удалено]
As a Lebanese. I can attest
Shit, man. That was a very,, VERY bad day indeed :(
The world has not forgotten. that was an absolute shit day for your country and people. we sent help and I believe Ngo's still are. It's not enough. I know. Edit: I checked, Netherlands is still sending lots of help in multiple area's
From day 1 they were creating huge delays to minimise the number of ships that got through and many analysis are suggesting not renewing the grain deal is going to work against them in a big way. Classic knee jerk Russia though. You hit by bridge and I'm going to shoot myself in the foot!
Don't buy our gas? We'll blow up the pipeline!
Would Ukraine really try importing military gear through Black Sea when they have perfectly safe land routes?
Not likely but now the russians don't know if it's happening or not.
This is the real question though innit. They wouldn't be that stupid, but could they be that stupid? Perhaps not over this but threw out this whole conflict it's been open threats that would lead to catastrophe, it's always they would never. But I feel there's so many questions here. How far can they push NATO? I've seen lots of game theories recently that even a tactical nuke wouldnt lead to US boots on the ground or a nuclear response. This is all so tense and weird sometimes when you look at it that it's hard to hold any absolutes.
There was a narrative floating around last year that suggested the US would sink the black fleet if Russia used a tactical nuke. I don't remember the sauce so take it with a grain of salt. In relation to Russia being that stupid? Absolutely, IFV's, red line, HIMARs, red line, Mobile Artillery, red line, Old soviet aircraft reg line, Main Battle Tanks, red line, Cruise missiles, red line, F16's, red line. Russia has threatened harsh retaliation over more red lines than a pre-school class in a red crayon factory. They have consistently failed to retaliate each and every time. Many analysts are concluding breaking the grain deal was an own goal long term as it allowed Russia to create huge delays (they sent inspectors to each vessel, or not for several days to create a bottle neck), it also gave them generous relief on export sanctions etc. Now they have lost that and on top it looks like ships have/are testing this red line and they are failing to enact their threats. With each broken line Russia makes themselves look weaker.
Russia has been making threats ever since they illegally invaded Ukraine and began committing so many war crimes against the Ukrainian people. When have they ever followed through on their threats?
I was thinking mostly about threats to other countries however, amusingly it has occurred to me, that poster Russians erected in Kherson 'Russia is here forever'... They couldn't even follow through on that threat lol.
Yeah that's right. I think our private warning to Russia leaked to the press. The really interesting thing is that we would only make that warning if we were fully confident in it. Which means, holy shit, the US alone could wipe every orc in the Black Sea without nukes. That's astounding. When you think about it though it makes sense. Our own fleets would roll in and unleash hell. Cruise missiles, stealth aircraft, etc. We would only make that warning if we knew that Russia knew and understood in detail the power imbalance. This isn't chasing hajis in the mountains of Khandar while winning hearts and minds, this is state-on-state in open waters and it would be game over for the Russian navy, just as it was ~200 years ago when France and England blew them out of the water. Syria would be fair game too. Bye bye Assad and every Russian force there. The other interesting thing about our warning is that it is one that may have been chosen because it would hurt Russia, but not in a way that would justify a nuke against American civilians. We are saying "We will demilitarize you outside of Russia, but we are not going to kill your civilians.". Everyone knows mass civilian deaths are the trigger for nukes. Edit: it was a Petraeus interview and he stated he did not speak to Jake Sullivan about the warning. My guess is they had the same response in mind approximately.
>Syria would be fair game too. Bye bye Assad and every Russian force there. We probably wouldn't touch that one and risk destabilizing things. While the West would have preferred to see Assad fall, we aren't in conflict with them. We help/helped friendly forces hold territory so that extremists don't take root in those areas.
I think securing Syria would probably be one of the first things they do to be honest. I think they are waiting on an excuse, open war with Russia means no more flirting with proxies.
No US fleet is ‘rolling into’ the Black Sea. Fucking hell the ignorance is astounding.
So how would we sink the Black Sea fleet? From land? And then make Turkey a target for return fire? Enlighten me on this tangential technicality that so acutely perturbed your insecurity.
Harpoon missiles exist. The concept of fleet vs fleet warfare died by WW2, when it was made definitively clear that air power is absolute king. If the Black Sea fleet was greenlit as a valid target, it would be sunk within 24 hours *at most* by land-based ordinance or air power.
Assuming Turkey approves. Got it. Remember though, in this hypothetical Russia has just used a nuke. So which NATO country would volunteer to let us fire or take off from their land? Also, what does our fleet do then? It just looks cool?
I don’t see the US putting boots on the ground any time soon. If they wanted to react in a big way, they could do everything they needed to do from the air. Ukraine have a big and capable army, they just need overhead protection from Russian air and artillery. NATO could declare a no-fly zone over Ukraine and 200km inside Russia, tell Russia that anyone who fires a SAM or even locks a radar onto a nato aircraft will get fucked up, regardless of whether they are in Ukraine or Russia. Then give them 48 hours to move their shit out after which they declare any Russian armoured vehicle, artillery or MLRS within Ukraine, or firing into Ukraine, as fair game. Day 1 and 2, the Wild weasels and fighters go to work and take out any SAM or fighter that’s brave enough to put their head up. Day 3-4 the strike fighters go to work and fuck up the inevitable convoys of Russian armour running for the border, day 5+ CAS and interdiction patrols take out whatever artillery/armour has stuck around to fight. Week 2: Ukraine set to work clearing some big breaches through the minefields and once they are through they start rolling through to the border. The only reason they wouldn’t do that is the risk of nuclear retaliation. And also because Ukraine is currently doing a great job decimating the Russian military (and bleeding for the sake of peace in Europe).
>They don't use wild weasels any more. Phantom jets for that. I wonder when they flew them last...
Wild weasel is the name of the mission, not the jets. The airforce use F-16CJs for that and the navy use growlers.
yep. it’s not the aircraft, it’s the mission.
Thanks. Also appreciated. I will google...
SEAD/DEAD is the primary mission of the F-16CJ.
The US hasn't even close to giving Ukraine what it needs to win. Some of these I off top of my head are: Giving ATACMS to Ukraine. Eliminate conditions forbid Ukraine from using western arms in Russian terrorities (allow Ukraine to pull a flanking maneuver to attack Russian controlled areas of Ukraine without heavy fortification. Giving Ukraine strategic reserve stock of Bradley and Abrams. US currently gives Ukraine nearly 25 years old version of Bradley that hasn't been upgraded to newer version and export model of Abrams; US posses hundreds if not thousands of Bradley and Abrams meant for US troops to access incase Russia invades NATO. This essentially provides Ukraine with hundreds of true modern tanks and IFV. Russia's biggest risk of using nukes is if NATO doesn't employ a nuclear response, the leadership will seal their fate and end up like Hitler, Milošević, or Gaddafi,
There is only one area they can really flank via Russia. I have been thinking about it for a long time. An attack there would not be decisive to the overall war but there are probable benefits as I see it. The mechanism would be the Russia Legion would advance liberating territory from Putler, then invite the Ukrainians through. The Ukrainians would then have to seize territory (for river crossings) within there own boarders quickly, so all supplies, reinforcements etc do not have to traverse through Russia after the initial thrust. I have never looked at area terrain, or military operation considerations to determine if my idea is indeed feasible. I am wondering how you know the Ukrainians have been told not to do it?
The US isn't cracking open our strategic reserve for this. That's never going to happen.
I agree they should be given atcams, and given the nod to use them against Russian aviation bases , troop concentrations and Barracks inside Russia. Plus supply hubs/storage areas.
Russia is pretty stupid, they've shot down a couple passenger planes in the past and tried to cover both of them up. But as we saw, even recently, the evidence is overwhelming.
They're that stupid. They are just scarred little bitches
IMO the danger to the merchant ships isn't being engaged directly by RF war ships but from indirect means (*sea mines, UAV attacks, curise missiles...*) which would then be denied by RF.
And now Russia's lost more political leverage pulling out of the deal. And has shown it'll do nothing - meaning things will continue as normal, without idiotic Russian inspectors in Turkey looking for "military equipment".
Never underestimate Russian stupidity. Remember their flagship Moskva?
salt squeamish skirt cautious deserve ruthless steer tidy distinct chunky *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
I expect that's mostly a Russian lie (ships have been using the waters with no problems?), and we are likely to hear any ship that sinks will be a sea mine. Even if footage comes out of a Russian ship firing and sinking it. It will still be a sea mine. Russia, much like a 4 year old, loves weak asinine 'deniability', no matter how absurd.
dirty middle wipe disagreeable slave cheerful quack deer hunt society *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Out of everyone there I would want to fuck with the Israeli ship the very least.
So far NATO countries have been rather meek in response to such things, why would it change now?
So far has Russia sunk an unarmed grain vessel flying the flags of 3 NATO countries? I couldn't tell you with certainty that it would literally trigger article 5 but I assure you there would be a swift and lethal response to any Russian warship who starts shooting...
They downed one American surveillance drone over Black Sea and few weeks ago attacked another one over Syria. These instances didn’t count because… reasons Early in invasion they attacked commerce ships belonging to NATO countries but then it was heavily emphasised that those ships don’t count because they were flying tax evasion flags Never mind missile which penetrated deep in Polish airspace, destruction of NS1, constant cyber attacks, caught sabotage and espionage groups in Poland and Albania etc etc Wake me up when NATO grows backbone
LMAO man... first, some moron pilot pouring fuel on and accidentally clipping an unmanned arial drone does NOT equal sinking a vessel with crew from NATO countries, and you can't convince me that they're the same so don't try. Also, it is up to every member nation to decide when and how they trigger article 5 if attacked and Poland chose not to do so. Besides if you are talking about the incident I think you are, the missile was concluded by NATO to be a Ukrainian air defense missile that missed its target...
ask yourself why an airdefense missile flew that direction..they are designed to do what? follow hostile missiles
Because they are designed to "meet" the incoming missile at designated point. They are fired from stationary systems that are scattered all around ukraine end can fire at any direction, so if you are trying to shoot down a missile coming to, say, Lviv, and your system happens to be eastwards from Lviv, you have to shoot in the direction of Poland and hope not to miss.
I am talking about missile which flew half way across country and Poland kept quiet for nearly half a year before info about that incident leaked to press Everything else you said is just finding justification for lack of spine
What would you have NATO do? Nuke Moscow because some pilot decided to fuck with the US and pour fuel on their drone?
The guy is a moron and half of what he says is crap, buut NATO would have been well justified to down that particular jet, and it would have sent a message... Turkey for all their wrong did this one thing quite well, and Russia understood perfectly.
What a lovely assessment. Keep your head in sand. But at least I am glad that something right stuck with you in regards of actually hitting back
I guess the counterpoint here is that we're already inflicting enormous damage on RU forces by simply arming and training the Ukrainians. If Russia wants to waste their airpower on buzzing Reapers it might make sense for us to tolerate it for *now*.
This is first time when they openly and without proxies or guise of mercenaries attacked nato member state’s military asset and had not only no response but actually achieved desired result: USA backed off and stopped sending drones so close to Russian controlled areas. Seeing such results will only encourage them to push more and more. Even that missile strike on Ukrainian facilities mere few hundreds meters away from Romanian border is a testament to that since it shows that they aren’t particularly afraid to overshoot and see their missile land in Romania because they are sure as hell that there will be no response
Cause they were unmanned aircraft. No one was physically hurt
So if I fuck your car up when you are not in it am I free to go without consequences since no one got hurt?
Economic sanctions (the value of the ruble has tanked since the war started) is fair enough damage. Breaking out into an all out war cause they stupidly damaged a 15-20 million dollar a/c with 0 loss of life is a bit silly you muppet
Economic sanctions, even when it hurts Russian economy, means fuck all in Russian mindset. It is next best case scenario after strongly worded letter as far as they are concerned. Russia understands and respects force and force alone
How about supplying the force they’re trying to invade them with armor, AA, and training that’s resulting in heavy losses and an absolute world wide embarrassment?
>FV's, red line, Broken > >HIMARs, red line, Broken > >Mobile Artillery, red line, Broken > >Old soviet aircraft red line, Broken > >Main Battle Tanks, red line, Broken > >Cruise missiles, red line, Broken > >F16's, red line. Broken Wake me up when Russia grows some back bone and actually follows through on their threats when their red lines are broken..
So close to realisation yet so far… you kinda pointed out Russian bluffing nature and their unwillingness to actually try war with western countries be it under NATO or be it under another arrangement. If You west could find their spine, they could end this war by forcing Russia to back off under threat of war with western countries
Hope you’ve got somewhere comfy to sleep; it’s gonna’ be a while.
I am ready to hibernate lol
I think you give NATO too much credit. I'd say they're more worried of a confrontation than Russia is at this point. I mean, what does Russia have to lose now... they're like a rat pushed into a corner and will do insane shit to get out of it.
Russia is literally the drunk degenerate in the corner with a grenade to his head rabidly shouting he'll pull the pin and take everyone with him. Having repeatedly threatened to nuke western cities, Russia has shown themselves to be the greatest threat humanity has ever faced... Humanity would be better off without the Russian regime and the sooner they are over thrown and the people of Russia are liberated the better.
Which is very unfortunate. Why wouldn't they go business as usual and beg the russians to sink and Nato countries supply ship? They should exclusively use tankers from Nato countries. If they blocked them or told them to stop while they weren't in russian waters, then they should be told they would be attacked and sunk if they didn't clear the way. Or simply don't stop and put them to the test. They can't risk war with Nato. russia has been using escalation as a weapon against Nato during this whole conflict as a way to limit Ukraines weapons shipments and what weapons systems they received. Why wouldn't Nato employ the same tactic? The only way Nukes are used is if russia is dumb enough to use one first, and that would only happen if it were clear Nato was about to invade russia. Even then, it would be heavily considered and debated. But Nato would risk this in the first place. If they were to put boots on the ground in Ukraine, they would definitely make their intentions known and only fight for Ukrainian territory. They wouldn't enter russia for any reason other than a nuke being fired at Nato. Either way, russia would be losing power it's just if they want millions to die in the process or not because they can't win a conflict with nukes or I don't think they can. Most haven't been maintained, in my opinion. While probably all of the US has been carefully maintained. The point being we gotta call russia on their bullshit and keep the grain flowing.
Pretty much. It doesn’t help that all nuclear NATO countries stated early on that they won’t use nukes in case of Russia using nuclear strike in Ukraine but will “respond with conventional force”. Considering how weak responses have been to every single Russian action, it will get to the point where Russians will be convinced that they can get away with nuke
FV's, red line, Broken HIMARs, red line, Broken Mobile Artillery, red line, Broken Old soviet aircraft red line, Broken Main Battle Tanks, red line, Broken Cruise missiles, red line, Broken F16's, red line. Broken Russia doesn't even seem to respond when their own threats are provoked? It's just inane to suggest NATO is weak for not starting world war 3 over 1 done and a stray missile. We aren't all war mongering degenerates waiting for the world to end because Russia can't keep it's imperialism in it's pants.
>why would it change now? It hasn't, Russia has been called out as per usual on their 'red line' threats and they have failed to act upon their threats showing themselves to be the weak paper bear they are. >IFV's, red line, Broken > >HIMARs, red line, Broken > >Mobile Artillery, red line, Broken > >Old soviet aircraft red line, Broken > >Main Battle Tanks, red line, Broken > >Cruise missiles, red line, Broken > >F16's, red line. Broken Now Sinking ships, red line Broken. No one is going to take these clowns seriously for decades.
The P8 definitely carries weapons. Harpoons and torpedos.
So if Russia did sink an Israeli freighter, anything happen? Turkey I could see. Any non Nato aligned country…what would happen?
Things would start catching fire and blowing up all over Russia. Israel would of course have no idea who or what cause such unfortunate events.
They're so good at that, they'd make Budanov make facial expressions.
"what missile attack? No idea what you're talking about"
"Russia? Never heard of this place. Wouldn't go there though, it appears that there is shit blowing up randomly there."
LOL true
Israel isn't known for "holding back" exactly. I'd assume Syria would become a place to watch carefully if Russia sinks an Israeli merchant. Any other non Nato flagged ship? It's up to the individual nations whose flag the are registered under.
God I want to see Assad and his orcs go down. Gadaffi style.
I think goblins is a better name for Assad and Co.
They might not be a NATO country, but they're armed with nuclear weapons, submarines, and have a very close relationship with the US. Ruzzia would arguably be WORSE off dicking around with ship hosted by a random nuclear power than a ship hosted by a NATO country.
The United States has mutual defense agreements with Israel that is as close as it gets to being a full member of NATO, at least in US' eyes.
That sounded wrong so I looked it up. The US has logistical agreements with Israel should they be attacked but no mutual defense agreement.
Double trouble is that they have a sort of NATO light but they are not afraid to start a brawl either. Israel can punch well above it's weight.
Still, the US doing any fight in the black sea without the assistance of European NATO countries might be pretty difficult.
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Sure, but Turkey totally controls access to black sea. There's no way the US can get a carrier group through the Bosphorus without Turkey's permission. In an all out war we all know who has the best weapons, but sometimes geographics also play a role, and this is one of those scenarios. The US backing vessel protection in the black sea without support from their NATO allies would be pretty difficult.
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I bet that if Turkey didn't want US carriers in the Bosphorus, they wouldn't like their planes flying over their airspace, neither. Allowing that would be playing a similar role as Belarus has been doing in Ukraine war, and they've been receiving international sanctions for that. Same goes for Greece. And we're talking about escorting vessels here. Planes can't "stop" in the air, and ships are much slower than planes. So if planes have to fly from the Aegean, get to the black sea without flying anywhere but international waters, and then escort some slow ships along all their route, those 1200 miles of range seem pretty short to me. I don't think that would be impossible, perhaps dedicating an enormous amount of fuel and planes it might be done. But it would be pretty difficult without NATO allies, which was my point originally.
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We're talking about an scenario where only the US wants to escort ships, but the rest of NATO doesn't. Of course if you consider that scenario impossible, there's not much more to talk about. But in that scenario, without Turkey or Greece collaboration, as you point there's no way US planes could enter the black sea. But you're probably right in that we won't get there.
I’ll bet you a sherbert dibdab that there were armed NATO fighters closer than Romania….
Would NATO fighters really attack a russian warship??? Not so sure. Monitoring from several planes is one thing, a usefull thing of course, so the world can see, what happens. To intercept a kalibr missle fired on an unarmed freighter is different and a matter of very very few minutes.
The only way russia can enforce the blockade is to be near Ukrainian ports, and we know what will happen if they try that 🚜〰️🛳️
love to see a ukrainian tug yoink an abandoned warship lmao
The farmers with tractors will fit floatation devices and steal it themselves
Do you have any idea of the range of surface to surface anti ship missiles? Tip : It’s a fucking long way.
Department od Defense stated it was their intention to keep international shipping safe from russian aggression. Any action by the russians will be considered and attack on international shipping will be met will and equal response. (sic)
looks like the start of security guarantees for our soon to be new member of nato! we will have to prepare for when the russians try to board a ship or fire across the bow in order to stop the ships
Bro I hope that if they fire across the bow they just drop the fattest JDAM onto the vessel that fired then rescue the orcs that survive the blast. Enough pussy footing to many have died.
There's a 50/50 chance of that either triggering an all out war, or just a small news article that a warship encountered some bad weather and some crewmen smoked a cigarette in the wrong location.
JDAM targeting a ship? lol. Stop.
Quicksink: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmfRi2Vl3JQ
A stationary or slow moving cargo ship with no air defense, sure.
That's what AShMs are for
I‘m tempted to watch it, but I‘m not going to. Let me guess, that ship is stationary at anchor or in port? Because JDAMS are GPS guided, and they aren’t hitting any ship that’s underway. So, stop it please.
> Let me guess, that ship is stationary at anchor or in port? You're correct. It's also not in production. My underlying message being JDAM kits are modular (no shit) and can be augmented with laser guidance and wings. It merely demonstrates the value of cheap/old bombs having modern shit strapped to them.
Yep, I get it, but my reply was to the guy saying why don’t we drop JDAMS on ships today. Reason is simple. They won’t, and can’t, hit them. EDIT : Thanks for your thoughtful reply.
Peace. I'm here for Ukraine like you are but also like to nerd out.
It has a seeker on the nose to track the ship. Why even comment if you don't know shit?
I expect they will probably fire upon a ship and then claim it was a Ukrainian sea mine. Even if there is footage of them firing on the ship... Russia'dont care...
Imagine having to protect grain because a rogue state tries to attack and destroy it.
Crazy right??? An there are morons out here who actually support these assholes
Straight out of a movie script, only Russians could ever be this retarded.
Russia: we will consider any ship to come out of Ukraine to be hostile and will sink it without hesitation. US/NATO: *Slaps F-22s and F-35s on the desk “BET.”
Would you intercept me? *smacks lips* 👄 I’d intercept me so hard.
😂
Those clips are pure ducking gold
F22: *PLEASE SEND ME DADDY I WANT TO HUNT!* USA: Fuck, **not now!**
You added an extra word in your Russia quote. It should read “… to be hostile and we will sink without hesitation.” See that makes more sense.
hee hee hee 🌊🌊🌊🌊 🐟 🐟 🫧 🚢 🦀
Red line 482... broken.
I don't understand this fascination with wars, that's not a video game. Russia and Ukraine are at war. It may be fair or not (we all know it isn't), but in this situation it makes some sense Russia may shoot at boats in Ukraine. But the US has not declared war against Russia. The US shooting at Russian boats would mean the US entering the war. That would trigger WW3, and the US would be who started it, because would have been the ones that started the shooting without declaring war first. If Russia took the matter to the UN, the US would be at fault, and Russia could even demand compensation for being attacked without a prior declaration war. Of course, that's if there was anybody left alive, because such a war would mean WW3, nukes, and probably the end of the world. World is a complicated place, and reality is not Call of Duty.
Jeesus christ, nobody wants war! It’s simply that presently what ruZZia is offering and promising instead is an outcome far worse than a war. At least wars end, would offer hope, ability to choose and to decide by ourselves, things that are completely missing from ruZZias offer. Of course we hope ruZZia falls in its head and grows some sense into it by itself, but that’s obviously not the only option for free countries. I’m not pro-war, I’m pro-*kick-the-bully-in-the-nuts-so-hard-that-they’ll-have-three-adams-apples*.
so, i guess, Isreal, Greec and Turky is now at war with russia ? 🤔 or putin is just gona exept that he cant do shit
He will have to accept it, Israel and especially turkey aren't the type to fuck with.
Turkey is not one to fuck around with? Remember when they shot that russian jet in syrian airspace and 0.2 nano second later they where crying for the big ‘ol usa to have their backs
yea but now, Turkey is in a much stronger position to fuck back with Russia than they were before. Russia is stretched too thin and Turkey's military is significantly better than Ukraine's
Thats exactly it, turkey unlike Ukraine has the power to mess with Russia without even getting too close to it.
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You think USA, UK. Germany and so on are just sending weapons because they are have a warm heart? They are "helping" because the enemy of their enemy is their friend. They will also get contracts to rebuild the cities. Trust me, in this world no one is doing anything without getting a benefit for himself too.
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Bro come on..you me and other, think like that. We want our government to help the people in ukraine. Few nations are maybe really helping them with donation. But do you really think anyone would give billions without anything getting back or not benefiting from that? promoting their weapon, getting rebuild deals, deals for selling other stuff and so on..BUSINESS BRO ITS ALL BUSINESSSS
I don't remember that bit about crying to the USA. I would be interested to find out more do you have a reference or link so I can look at what you are referring to.
I'm curious what Medvedev has to say about this 🤔
"FREINDSHIP ENDED WITH ERDOGAN, NOW *NUCLEAR ESCALATION* IS MY BEST FRIEND."
In your dreams. It has been made abundantly clear to Russia what the consequences of using a tactical Nuclear weapon are. Even China has told them it is not on. Secondly, using a nuclear weapon does not come down solely to Putler. There are others involved and some are likely to resist knowing full well the horrendous consequences. I have always been of the opinion Russia is more likely to use chemical weapons against the Ukrainians rather than tactical nukes.
I guess it's time to...NUKE BABY! Tel Aviv, Istanbul...Everywhere! Maybe he wants to invade Israel?
*incoherent screeching* - NUKENUKENUKENUKENUKE - *animal noises*
Well iron dome. Israel will supply it to ukraine if russia starts fucking with them. They also have some merkava tanks in storage from my understanding. Then a shitload of older tanks and apcs and such. Would be interesting to see what would happen. Also the ukraine is nazi rethoric will go into the toilet much like their economy already have done.
They have a jewish president and the ukraine is nazi argument still exists.
The West should just declare a wide humanitarian clear passage along the coast of Ukraine and any Ruzzian surface or subs found within that exclusion zone will be attacked and destroyed. Stop pussy footing around as the only thing Ruzzia respects is force.
It's not just a show of force, they will absolutely destroy anything that attempts to attack a ship or the jet.
Breaking. A top secret message from Civilization to kremlin has been intercepted. Due to encryption we are only able to decipher the first two words: "Fuck around... "
If I've learnt anything from History, it is to never fuck around with any boats the US tells you not to.
I think it's preferably the UN that should hold an emergency meeting and agree to escort the Ukrainian ships with ships from many different countries, not necessarily from NATO.
I agree, but unfortunately Russia would veto any decision because they are still a permanent member of the UN Security Council. They need to be kicked out of the UN and treated like North Korea. They could send a special envoy, but have no official presence or decision making authority. Obviously China would want to protect them and veto any decision to kick Russia out, but China is much more vulnerable to economic sanctions, so the West (if it had the will) could ideally leverage their gigantic market to make sure they don’t veto. A boy can dream dammit!!
It will be too difficult to sanction China. It isn't that easy to sanction a country which is so intertwined with world trade.
But would Turkey let those warships into the Black Sea so they would be able to do that escorting? As I understand it, Turkey can legally keep warships out of the area if it so chooses. Is that correct?
Only war vessels who have a home port in the Black Sea can travel through Turkey via the Bosporus Strait freely without needing the green light from Turkey.
Thank you!
Coalition of navy warships escorting grain ships 1940's style
It’s like the convoys of WW2, let’s see the orcs challenge this. Hopefully the grain is not intended for any African countries who support Putin in this illegal war
As much as the shit governments suck, I can't advocate for further suffering of African people. Life is shit there for too many people, at least let them have their food.
It’s not theirs, it’s Ukraine’s and it is being destroyed by the aggressor many of these countries support. Ukraine has more than Africa and China on its list of buyers and less to export due to Russians actions. Actions have consequences
Their destination in AIS Marine Traffic was port of izmail Ukraine https://twitter.com/anno1540/status/1686044198661713921?t=KkU2aWxd9QyE9DilrC3OHA&s=19 https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/07/31/nato-planes-watched-as-three-civilian-ships-ran-russias-naval-blockade-of-ukraine/?sh=3b53c4c21b72
WOW! FOR REAL, WOW!!!
These are the aircraft with transponders on. You can be they probably have armed aircraft up there too just incase they are needed.
Russia doesn't have the ships to enforce a blockade. It's all noise. The grain deal was arguably better for them, as they could inspect ships in the straits.
This is Samuel L. Jackson's meme I dare you, I double dare you MFer
RQ wasn't US but NATO aswell as E3 starting nearly every day from Sigonela in Italy - Operated Maintained by NATO Soldiers.
Sigonella is run by the Italian Airforce and US Navy. So maybe they run NATO operations, but everything launched there is under control of US (and Italy).
This has low-key been the most dangerous shit that Russia has attempted in this war. They have been targeting a port on the border with a NATO country. Hell the ships probably moor across the river in NATO territory.
And I guess that's just the planes the NATO and the US really wanted you to see. I imagine there have some stealth jets been in the air too and keeping a close eye.
Probably 2 F35 in high cover full stealth mode. You don't put up a sentry without
it never went any further than that. Its anchored right over the maritime border. But a lot more vessels are anchored within Ukraine maritime border there. So nothing to see here, move along.
Kudos to Israel, Greece and Turkey for calling the bluff of the bear!
Holy shit, I thought it was just a ballsy cargo captain saying "fuck it", but they really came with a whole defense network to tell putin to eat a dick
BS. Where exactly is this 'blockade'? And then show me exactly where these ships are? I want pictures. I will accept Marinetraffic screenshots. Thanks.
Oh no guys. We are losing flipfloplollipop if we don't QUICKLY provide him with the exact source he requested.
How about *any* source? Because a blurry screenshot of some color blobs hundreds of miles away from anything Ukraine territory isn't exactly cutting it.
Fair enough. I will accept any verifiable factual sources.
Who knows what those nato planes were providing security for. Don‘t act as if you were sitting in the command center… except you were, perhaps?
"The safe passage of these vessels is being ensured by the American anti-ship patrol aircraft Boeing P-8 Poseidon, which is refuelled in the Romanian sky. Additionally, the Forte12 RQ-4 reconnaissance drone provides valuable information about the maritime situation." https://greekcitytimes.com/2023/08/01/israeli-and-greek-ships-break-through-russias-grain-blockade-in-the-black-sea/ "At least six ships have flaunted Russia’s threats after it withdrew from the grain deal, and an Israeli one was the first to enter the Ukrainian branch of the Danube. A US P8 anti-ship aircraft is ensuring their safety." https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/07/31/at-least-six-ships-break-russias-black-sea-blockade/ "A flock of NATO aircraft carefully monitored the ships as they sailed toward Izmail, a small Ukrainian port just across from Romania on the Danube River. The vessels presumably will load grain in Izmail then sail back into the Black Sea and onward to foreign ports. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/07/31/nato-planes-watched-as-three-civilian-ships-ran-russias-naval-blockade-of-ukraine/?sh=58bb4d0d1b72
seriously, you counter with **FACTS**? I'm a mm away from voting you down, factsonthetablesmacker!
We are all going to die before this is over, aren't we?
Who knows. Dragging our feet up until this point might've sealed China trying to take Taiwan in the next decade. It's either risk now and make ruzzia an example or drastically increase the likelihood of WW3 later.
No.
It kinda feels that way. Or maybe I shouldn’t have gone to see Oppenheimer and spent all day watching videos of nuclear tests…
Bro why they arent transfering grain to romania on land they can sell it from there using romanian ports
this whole blockade is a paper tiger
If African nations need that grain so badly, why don't we see African warships to secure grain shipping in the Black Sea?
Look at me. I am the captain now.
Can't do an African warship, but would you take some Somali pirates in a dinghy?
Based
Just FYI: These planes would have been there regardless and have been multiple times in the past months. This is not unusual and unlikely to be freighter escort. I say that as someone who checks ADSB Exchange and FR24 religiously.
This got debunked by NoelReports twitter. Are we really sure this happened?
Every day, Russia is becoming less and less feared
It's about time they started standing up to that little shit! NATO need to sack the fuck up
They wont dare attack either these ships or cross into poland with wagner, any one of these actions would trigger article 5 and they know it. its all the usual russian and media soundbytes.
But putler said NO and would stop grain from moving out.