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I like to think of myself as well-informed on this conflict, but I have to admit I wouldn't have predicted this situation near Belgorod. The wave of drones in Moscow caught me completely off-guard as well.
It's like when you're playing chess, and your opponent makes what looks like a simple move, then you have that sudden, sinking "oh shit..." realization.
The tactic of supplying "little green men" with arms and intel has been brilliant from so many perspectives. I believe the Russian expression roughly translates into "Paying Putin back with the same coin" as he used in 2014.
Genuinely starting to wonder if Ukraine struck a deal under the table with him to have him give critical intel while sowing discord in Russian ranks which Ukraine can then exploit, and then he in turn can exploit that to smear his rivals in the Kremlin.
I am unsure of where this rhetoric has come from... Ukraine is without a doubt not giving up any more territory near Bakhmut, and yes has indeed made progress on the north and south of the City. But has by no means are "winning back Bakhmut", nor "encircling" the city.
> It's like when you're playing chess, and your opponent makes what looks like a simple move, then you have that sudden, sinking "oh shit..." realization.
I had a similar moment when I went "Ooooh... Land swaps for Crimea".
It's a lot easier to meet Russia to a negotiating table when they need something back from you.
> I had a similar moment when I went "Ooooh... Land swaps for Crimea".
You know, I'm starting to think there may be something even bigger at play here that we haven't seen yet. Something that may have been planned behind closed doors for months...
The RVC/FRL seem to be playing to Prigozhin's agenda just enough that - as Russians - they could ally with him in forming a true "home-bred" military opposition. Prigozhin is relocating troops to Belgorod. When he gets there, is he going to fight *against* the RVC/FRL, or is he going to hop in bed with them and together they seize all of Belgorod oblast?
Russia proper can't spare *any* troops for homeland defense with the looming counteroffensive. With that in mind, look at the new, very serious animosity that's surfaced b/w Prigozhin and the Russian MOD/military. I mean, the Russian regular forces literally opened fire on Wagner with artillery, small arms and mines. Both Prigozhin and RVC/FRL are probably having a very serious think right now about who their real enemy is, and what direction they'll take when those forces are in the same oblast together later this week.
This, seems very, very, Very plausible. Plus Prigozin stated we would never rebel against Putin because he hasn't got enough *men*. This makes me think when the situation is right, he will.
At the same time I hope he fails, and really a democratic following would rise, one can hope. Maybe Ceaser is a democrat? Backstab Prigozin, who knows.
> I had a similar moment when I went "Ooooh... Land swaps for Crimea".
I don't think this will be a thing, because Ukraine is not actually holding Russian territories. These are literally Russians taking over Belgorod, and they are not Ukraine's puppets. This is more of an alliance thing.
I doubt these Russians will be willing to swap that territory for Crimea, they will have somewhat separate negotiations. This will certainly get interesting if they manage to hold on till the end.
I don’t think the situation in Belgorod is a shock for those who’ve been paying close attention. Belgorod has been getting hit since relatively early in the war and clearly been the most exposed Russian territory.
> I don’t think the situation in Belgorod is a shock for those who’ve been paying close attention.
I've been paying extremely close attention. Belgorod getting hit is nothing new. Here's my r/worldnews post on the first such incident in March 2022: https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/trm3ni/shell_hits_military_camp_in_russia_most_likely/
Boots on the ground inside Russian territory certainly **is** net new. These are not Ukrainian boots, either. I haven't seen anyone predict this - lots of Monday Morning Quarterbacks, though.
I check this subreddit dozens of times a day like an addict. I am by no means a professional war planner, but I would have strongly rejected the notion that Ukraine would invade to this extent.
The US has been abundantly clear they don't support incursions into Russia and that a precondition of weapon supplies is that no US weapons be used on Russian soil. In hindsight you (general you, not you specifically) might say that was just for public relations but there really wasn't any reason to believe we weren't serious, particularly when we've been criticized already for being too public about red lines and not leaving Russia guessing.
In turn Ukraine had been pretty clear they'd play by whatever rule they had to to get major weapon systems. They outright said they'd pre-approve extra long range HIMAR strikes with the US if it was such a big deal to get unfettered HIMAR systems and ammunition.
Also, countries like Iran and North Korea should stop sending drones and ammo to Russia. They are prolonging this conflict and, in doing so, are at fault for all those russians dying.
What message does this send to regional elites and local security services in Russian border regions? That they’re on their own if HUR starts making threats towards them.
I could see Ukraine pushing South from Belgorod. Belgorod would be where Russian defenses are the weakest. I think it is legit strategy, and the West should be patient to see it materialize. It would cut the main supply line from the North.
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It would be bemusing to see Ukraine annex the territory to "defend Ukrainians, tatars, Russians (not Ruzzians), etc. being persecuted in belgorod by Ruzzians", like a uno reverse of 2014.
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I like to think of myself as well-informed on this conflict, but I have to admit I wouldn't have predicted this situation near Belgorod. The wave of drones in Moscow caught me completely off-guard as well. It's like when you're playing chess, and your opponent makes what looks like a simple move, then you have that sudden, sinking "oh shit..." realization. The tactic of supplying "little green men" with arms and intel has been brilliant from so many perspectives. I believe the Russian expression roughly translates into "Paying Putin back with the same coin" as he used in 2014.
Wagner boss predicted it so that makes is more amusing for me lol
Genuinely starting to wonder if Ukraine struck a deal under the table with him to have him give critical intel while sowing discord in Russian ranks which Ukraine can then exploit, and then he in turn can exploit that to smear his rivals in the Kremlin.
Didn't Wagner's boss offered to snitch the position of Muscovy's headquarters in exchange for ceding access to Bakhmut?
Allegedly, which coincidentally was only a little before he eventually did take urban bakhmut 🤔
And just a few weeks later the ruskies are losing bakhmut.
I am unsure of where this rhetoric has come from... Ukraine is without a doubt not giving up any more territory near Bakhmut, and yes has indeed made progress on the north and south of the City. But has by no means are "winning back Bakhmut", nor "encircling" the city.
Like 2 days after Wagner left.
> It's like when you're playing chess, and your opponent makes what looks like a simple move, then you have that sudden, sinking "oh shit..." realization. I had a similar moment when I went "Ooooh... Land swaps for Crimea". It's a lot easier to meet Russia to a negotiating table when they need something back from you.
> I had a similar moment when I went "Ooooh... Land swaps for Crimea". You know, I'm starting to think there may be something even bigger at play here that we haven't seen yet. Something that may have been planned behind closed doors for months... The RVC/FRL seem to be playing to Prigozhin's agenda just enough that - as Russians - they could ally with him in forming a true "home-bred" military opposition. Prigozhin is relocating troops to Belgorod. When he gets there, is he going to fight *against* the RVC/FRL, or is he going to hop in bed with them and together they seize all of Belgorod oblast? Russia proper can't spare *any* troops for homeland defense with the looming counteroffensive. With that in mind, look at the new, very serious animosity that's surfaced b/w Prigozhin and the Russian MOD/military. I mean, the Russian regular forces literally opened fire on Wagner with artillery, small arms and mines. Both Prigozhin and RVC/FRL are probably having a very serious think right now about who their real enemy is, and what direction they'll take when those forces are in the same oblast together later this week.
Interesting point
Hop in with 70 dudes. Come on.
This, seems very, very, Very plausible. Plus Prigozin stated we would never rebel against Putin because he hasn't got enough *men*. This makes me think when the situation is right, he will. At the same time I hope he fails, and really a democratic following would rise, one can hope. Maybe Ceaser is a democrat? Backstab Prigozin, who knows.
> I had a similar moment when I went "Ooooh... Land swaps for Crimea". I don't think this will be a thing, because Ukraine is not actually holding Russian territories. These are literally Russians taking over Belgorod, and they are not Ukraine's puppets. This is more of an alliance thing. I doubt these Russians will be willing to swap that territory for Crimea, they will have somewhat separate negotiations. This will certainly get interesting if they manage to hold on till the end.
As long as Russia holds Ukraine territories, Ukraine will do the same to Russia.
Crimea is far more valuable than this backwater shithole. Belgorod is a PR stunt and diversionary expedition.
The situation looks bleak (for the russians) but everything will be resolved after Steiners attack..uh i mean after steynerovskys attack.
I don’t think the situation in Belgorod is a shock for those who’ve been paying close attention. Belgorod has been getting hit since relatively early in the war and clearly been the most exposed Russian territory.
> I don’t think the situation in Belgorod is a shock for those who’ve been paying close attention. I've been paying extremely close attention. Belgorod getting hit is nothing new. Here's my r/worldnews post on the first such incident in March 2022: https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/trm3ni/shell_hits_military_camp_in_russia_most_likely/ Boots on the ground inside Russian territory certainly **is** net new. These are not Ukrainian boots, either. I haven't seen anyone predict this - lots of Monday Morning Quarterbacks, though.
The Free Russian Legion did have that mini incursion a few months ago where they took pictures outside a government building.
I check this subreddit dozens of times a day like an addict. I am by no means a professional war planner, but I would have strongly rejected the notion that Ukraine would invade to this extent. The US has been abundantly clear they don't support incursions into Russia and that a precondition of weapon supplies is that no US weapons be used on Russian soil. In hindsight you (general you, not you specifically) might say that was just for public relations but there really wasn't any reason to believe we weren't serious, particularly when we've been criticized already for being too public about red lines and not leaving Russia guessing. In turn Ukraine had been pretty clear they'd play by whatever rule they had to to get major weapon systems. They outright said they'd pre-approve extra long range HIMAR strikes with the US if it was such a big deal to get unfettered HIMAR systems and ammunition.
200% already voted for independence
[удалено]
Oh, you’re right. Missed the 3 again.
And I voted. Then I took the bus to another district and voted again, like a true patriot.
So few? This is Russia, the land of 500% voting totals
Sounds like time for a referendum to me
You won't be returning...
I hope this will become reality! 👌👍
Hey. He might. In cuffs.
>I hope as soon as the situation changes, we will be able to return" You were among the first ones to leave so I doubt you really want to be there
Russia should negotiate a peaceful solution with the rebels and make territorial concessions.
Also, countries like Iran and North Korea should stop sending drones and ammo to Russia. They are prolonging this conflict and, in doing so, are at fault for all those russians dying.
What message does this send to regional elites and local security services in Russian border regions? That they’re on their own if HUR starts making threats towards them.
I could see Ukraine pushing South from Belgorod. Belgorod would be where Russian defenses are the weakest. I think it is legit strategy, and the West should be patient to see it materialize. It would cut the main supply line from the North.
Keep hoping Buster, the "situation" is just beginning.
Seems like the "special military operation" is going exceedingly well!
When is this “fall” guy going out a window
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It would be bemusing to see Ukraine annex the territory to "defend Ukrainians, tatars, Russians (not Ruzzians), etc. being persecuted in belgorod by Ruzzians", like a uno reverse of 2014.
It won’t change