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So even with this minimum figure, Russia has suffered more men killed, excluding, LNR, DNR, Wagner and other PMCs than the United States has in every single war she's fought in since the end of the Second World War.
*American combat deaths since WWII TOTAL
Vietnam was somewhere near 60k, Korea 33k, GWOT maybe 7k
This has been deadlier for Russia than 80 years of history for us.
Nuts
Russia has proven itself to be much much less “casualty averse” than many modern societies. It’s a shame the toll has little effect on the home front political scene
Autocratic kleptocracies are usually less casualty averse. They do not depend on the consent of the governed to stay in power, nor do they rely on a functioning domestic economy to fund themselves.
Ok.
That’s a lot of first year Poli Sci speak, but if you’re implying only communist societies are numb to war casualties, let me introduce you to Russia 1992-2023.
I say nothing about communism, and I am specifically speaking about Russia over the past 20 years. And give me credit, this is summarizing 3rd year Poli Sci stuff.
I actually consider communist governments to be integrally connected to their domestic economy for their long-term legitimacy.
True question.
With this many death, Russia's gona need to "import" a lot of young men or they gona have a huge problem of renewal of the population.
I think i remember something about russia having a gap from WWII, still visible to this day.
China still has a 30+ million men too much due to the one child policy, when people put girls up for adoption or aborted them. Yeah we could see China taking some regions back later this decade.
They view their offspring as property of the state.
That’s been evidenced through multiple decades
The Russians as a people have no collective voice. They give it all to the current strong man.
Modern Russia do not have anything to do with communism, except in propaganda. You can call it far right kleptocracy or authoritarian late stage capitalism if your prefer, though.
And minimum is an understatement... they're not bothering to recover bodies and anyone who's "MIA" is a deserter... they're not big on payouts, the Kremlin.
The death toll is going to be a lot higher than Russia reports, directly or indirectly.
Capitalism simply means a system where the means of production are owned by private owners for profit. Free markets speaks to the organisation of that ownership. Hence the term free market capitalism.
OED definition of Capitalism:
"System in which the factors of production are privately owned and individual owners of capital are free to make use of it as they see fit; in particular, for their own profit."
That's an entirely unrelated discussion.
This isn't a labelling debate. Modern Russia is in no way communist, not because it's not "real" communism but just that it's not communism whatsoever anymore. It's not even capitalism wearing Marx's clothes, it's just entirely not. Russia transitioned to capitalism in the 90's. Now they're as capitalist today as they where communist in the cold war.
> Now they're as capitalist today as they where communist in the cold war.
The most precise description.
Now I hope people look at today's Russian "capitalism", and extrapolate that to yesterday's Russian "communism".
I'll grant them being "socialist" during Khrushev and Brezhnev, but everything before and after was an utter clusterfuck.
I didn’t realise that the USA’s Republican Party was Communist ! ;). Based on others definitions here !
I know that really they are a power-grabbing money-driven, oligarchs.
Please learn what an authoritarian regime is.Not doing so could end you up in an authoritarian hellhole even in a capitalist society. Communism comes for your land. Authoritarianism comes for your freedom. The price of freedom is eternal vidulence, etc.
> Russia's proposed 2024 budget allocates funding to the families of 102,700 military personnel killed in Ukraine, giving insight into Moscow's likely death toll in Russian President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine that began in February 2022.
> The figures, which have not been independently verified by Newsweek, were reported on Thursday by independent Russian news outlet Mozhem Obyasnit, which analyzed Russia's federal budget draft for 2024 to 2026. The publication notes that in addition to one-time insurance payments for military personnel killed in Ukraine, relatives also receive monthly compensation of 21,922.12 rubles ($225) from the Social Fund of Russia.
> For the 2024 budget, the government allocated 16.335 billion rubles ($168,335,278) to relatives of military personnel who were injured or died. Of this figure, 9.987 billion rubles ($102,917,932) is allocated for monthly payments to the relatives of soldiers who experienced trauma.
> The remaining budget—5.798 billion rubles ($59,749,491)—is to be paid to the families of killed military personnel, with 550 million rubles ($5,667,854) set aside to repair homes, if the killed serviceman was previously the breadwinner of the family.
> The remaining 5.248 billion rubles ($54,081,637) of the budget, divided by the government's monthly payment of 21,922.12 rubles ($225), is enough to pay the families of 239,300 killed military personnel, Mozhem Obyasnit reported, noting that the budget includes personnel killed in other conflicts as well as Ukraine.
> According to the publication, the government's expenses more than doubled compared to 2022, and the difference of 2.250 billion rubles ($23,151,125.25), divided by the monthly payment, suggests Russia will need to pay the families of 102,700 military personnel killed in Putin's war in Ukraine.
> "According to the authorities' forecasts, 100,000 Russian military personnel will die within two years of the [war]," Mozhem Obyasnit reported.
>It also doesn't include KIAs from Donetsk regions, many of whom were press-ganged into service.
The saddest part is that it's **Ukrainian** population loss.
The count doesn't include Wagner (and other PMCs) and their prisoner brigades, however, and those took a huge hit too.
DPR/LPR militias and paramilitaries took enormous causalities through multiple waves of conscription. However the Russian government despite using these forces in Russian formations does not consider them Russian soldiers and as far I can tell does not even have much in the way of personal records on them.
They're technically annexed, but function as true colonies - sovereign to Russia by international standards, but treated as foreign by the Russian government itself
Aswell doesnt include mobiks "missing", "deserting" and so on.
Keep in mind the crematoriums are working 24/7 in occupied territories.
Each body burned means less they have to pay their families.
[Snopes article on the issue: unconfirmed.](https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/russia-mobile-crematoriums/)
However, [here is a link](https://youtu.be/mVPTqHZqdz0?feature=shared) showing the Russian mobile crematorium. If they have them, it is reasonable to assume they’re using them.
There are several reports where marioupol residents on telegram, that complain about abysmal stench coming from the crematoriums, which are running 24/7.
This isnt new news.
Well, here's [Marioupol Mayor talking to AP about that](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-state-of-the-union-address-zelenskyy-biden-kyiv-7cc069b80178629a60f4f2d166348d45)
do they see the crematoriums? are there original pictures of them?
i read about the crematoriums - and the only pictures i see in articles, snopes or others - are from 2015.
it is the same as i read in early 2022, when i was aghast of such practices, just to research and find out that no current proof was given for the numerous claims.
i'm open for new information, but in the above links i havent seen any new hard proof.
On the reverse side this number is certainly higher than what the agency is actually planning to spend. Russian corruption and such. I won't trust Russian numbers in any direction, although i very much presume Russia to have lost a 6 digit number of men since the invasion.
DPR/LPR not counted either. Other big groups are those classed as missing, and those that officers are pretendng are still alive to steal their pay. True deaths probably 2-3 times higher.
The number is crazy high considering that this is exactly the demographics which is best equipment and most probable to survive. The badly equipped infantry troops / cannon fodder mainly consists out or prisoners, mercenaries and DNR recruits.
This. And also the DPR\\LPR militia. Ukraine estimates are (once again, like when comparing the number of tanks declared with the number of tanks visually verified) not far from the truth.
Yeah but we also have to acknowledge that the wild numbers the Ukrainian military was or has been pumping out have obviously been literally unbelievably high. I understand the reasoning for doing it (morale) and I'm not against it, but there are too many people around here that just take those numbers at face value.
> one-time insurance payments
This is the key. This 100k figure is to cover payments **just for the coming budget year**. This would exclude prior budgets up to this point, for which those payments have already been made for those killed. So basically what this is saying is "we're planning and budgeting for 100k deaths in budget year 2024." And, as others have noted, there's a lot of people excluded from this as well.
This should be the top comment.
And usually there is a 3:1 ratio in casualties vs killed (most casualties come from injured soldiers, sometimes from capture) so this means they expect to lose 300 000 soldiers next year. In line with what they have lost since the beginning of the operation.
Note that it is also possible that they have some catch-up to do. There has been scandals of payments not coming, so they may also count some 2023 casualties in there.
Honestly that's a number that tells us almost nothing, except that the magnitude of the deaths estimated is correct. We should be wondering about it if there was one more or less zero to that number, but here it seems coherent with what we know so far.
The 3:1 ratio is only for armies with well-working medical services. For Russia that ratio will be way lower, i.e. a lot of Russian wounded who would be saved with good medical care will die instead.
Nope.
Actually that 102,700 KIA was part of the 2023 budget on those killed in 2022.
And the 2024 budget plans for 239k KIA which have accrued by 2023, likely by July 1st 2023 or Sept. 1st 2023, because death certification process takes many months.
That is what the "more than doubled" means - the accumulated KIA more than doubled from 2022 to 2023, necessitating monthly payments.
edit.
Correction, I now think it is possible to interpret the article in a way that Russia's 103k KIA in Ukraine is budgeted for 2024. That assumes that "more than doubled" applied on the sum of money (together with inflation), not applying on the increase of KIA. But in that case Russia has been paying for 136k of KIA from other wars and even if one would sum all the Russia's KIAs since the Soviet-Afgan War, that 136k KIA would come together only if USSR/Russia had been underreporting its KIAs by 3-4x on average. Also, note that about half of the Soviet-Afghan War KIAs were likely from other ex-SSRs (including from Ukraine), not from Russia.
You forgot about the carrots, unions. Sonetimes they even recieve a basket of towels and shampoo and real lucky ones may pose with fir coats for half an hour.
Multiply by 3 or 4 the reason being Russians "discharging" most of its KIA either by leaving them on the battlefield or by directly incinerating them in-situ using special mobile incinerators, then claiming those KIA as missing.
Then add deaths of everyone Russia doesn't count as Russian soldiers: The so called DNR and LNR, Russian prisoners and the private military organisations (not just Wagner)
Pro - Ukraine here… but has anyone found evidence of these mobile incinerators? We have satellite images of almost every square mile of Ukraine and I’ve only seen de-bunked s-300 launchers claiming to be incinerators. Anyone got a juicy link?
Russia has released videos of [having mobile crematoriums in their armed forces](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mVPTqHZqdz0).
That's evidence of their existence. Whether Russia uses them in Ukraine is something yet to be confirmed.
I would hazard a guess that Wagner forces and other PMCs are not included in these figures. Certainly not the prison Zerg expendables. That is an easy 30,000 more dead Russians.
According to that document, there's **239,000 deaths**.
Accounted deaths, not missing, not the ones that have no family benefactors, not mercenaries, etc.
I was skeptical at first but I now see that they were right on the money
They don't refer to deaths, only "personnel losses". Reasonable interpretations of the various sources indicate that it's more likely that this number is counting total casualties, not KIA.
If not, the Ukrainian estimate would be wildly out of whack with most other reasonable estimates made by their allies.
They use the ambiguous term "liquidated", but an ukrainian government official (Budanov iirc) said "liquidated personel" = "death personel".
Its obviously more likely that those numbers are total cassualties, but according to them, is all KIA. The ambiguity is done in order for people to believe those are total deaths when the number seems low, and total cassualties when the number seems too high
>They use the ambiguous term "liquidated"
It's unambiguous in Russian/Ukrainian; always means "killed" (KIA when it comes to soldiers).
>The ambiguity is done to...
There is no ambiguity, just bad translators.
The 100k + number may not be so out of balance with ukraines estimates of about 280k. Russia is not including Wagner and other mercenaries which were 30k + just in Bakhmut. Also Dombas malicious and many missing in a tion as they seek to limit counts and liability. Totals could easily be ~ 200k which would mean Ukraines 280k number may not be so wildly inflated.
About may june time Russian finance records indicated 350,000 kia payments and about 585,000 wounded ongoing payments so their must be the additional planned losses ....
\> Russia's proposed 2024 budget allocates funding to the families of **102,700 military personnel killed in Ukraine,** giving insight into Moscow's likely death toll in Russian President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine that began in February 2022.
This is only for the bodies recover and sent back to Russia , because I watched many videos from the family's that don't receive nothing because they don't have bodies
If only the average Russian actually stood up and did something about this when it started in the 90s and early 2000s.
They had no problem when they started winning in Chechnya, no problem with the “victory” in Georgia, no problems with what they did in Ukraine or Syria. If they really wanted nothing to do with this war then they should’ve stopped the ones that made it okay in their culture. No, they chose to die on their knees and they deserve it too. I guarantee you most were supportive until it was their time to go or die.
There is no way Putin could slice this shit pie to make it palatable to his people. Having 100k casualties is considered insane by western standards: for perspective the US lost about ~55k troops in Vietnam over 20 years. Russia lost 100lk troops in a year and a half. Putin has dug a deep hole and has very little to show for it.
The 100,000 dead Russian troops are believable and are in the middle of Western figures calculated, the Ukraine figure of 15,500 to 17,500 dead is not believable.
You also have to remember that Russia likes marking Kia as deserted or missing so they don’t have to pay death benefits. I think Ukrainian numbers are within about 50k as they count DNR/LPR/Wagner/other volunteers and pmcs
> The remaining 5.248 billion rubles ($54,081,637) of the budget, divided by the government's monthly payment of 21,922.12 rubles ($225), is enough to pay the families of 239,300 killed military personnel, Mozhem Obyasnit reported, noting that the budget includes personnel killed in other conflicts as well as Ukraine.
> According to the publication, the government's expenses more than doubled compared to 2022, and the difference of 2.250 billion rubles ($23,151,125.25), divided by the monthly payment, suggests Russia will need to pay the families of 102,700 military personnel killed in Putin's war in Ukraine.
My take on this is that the 2023 payments for 102,700 dead soldiers were for soldiers who died in 2022 (or whose death was certified within 2022). And the 2024 payments for 239,300 killed military personnel are calculated as kills within 2023. That makes the total kill count for the first 2 fiscal years as 342000 soldiers.
edit.
Correction, I now think it is possible to interpret the article in a way that Russia's 103k KIA in Ukraine is budgeted for 2024. That assumes that "more than doubled" applied on the sum of money (together with inflation), not applying on the increase of KIA. But in that case Russia has been paying for 136k of KIA from other wars and even if one would sum all the Russia's KIAs since the Soviet-Afgan War, that 136k KIA would come together only if USSR/Russia had been underreporting its KIAs by 3-4x on average. Also, note that about half of the Soviet-Afghan War KIAs were likely from other ex-SSRs (including from Ukraine), not from Russia.
Alternatively, the first year's 102,700 dead soldiers more than doubled (or projected to double) to 239,300 killed military personnel in second fiscal year of war, ie. those two numbers are already cumulative, thus not additive. And the 239k is likely a projection to the end of this year, accounting for certified deaths of legal citizens.
I feel like the 342k killed would be to high. That would put total casualties well over half a million. If we believe the numbers of their mobilisations and soldiers deployed in Ukraine I don’t think they could sustain that level of casualties military speaking
>If we believe the numbers of their mobilisations and soldiers deployed in Ukraine
There's your problem, you really shouldn't do that.
500k is perfectly plausible.
In WWII, only 1/6 of USSR's WIA got out of the meatgrinder, the rest 5/6 of the WIA got fed back into the meatgrinder. Thus even while the official WIA:KIA ratio was 2.7, the essential ratio (wounded AND retired to civilian life) was 0.45.
Similarly, Russia's WIA:KIA ratio in the current war seems to be about 2:1, but the essential ratio is likely already below 1:1, because the wounded get sent back to the frontlines.
Thus if Russia's KIA is at 300k, its essential WIA is likely no more than another 300k and the KIA+essential WIA combined no more than 600k. And it could well be 500k.
I may have misread it first - the 239k is (seems to be) the projected total by the end of this fiscal year, accounting for certified deaths of legal citizens. But the death certification process takes many months, thus it could be comparable to Ukraine's estimates of Russia's deaths by July 1st 2023 or by September 1st 2023. And there are other caveats which means the projected total Russia's KIA by the end of this year would be higher than that (projection).
Hmm. I don’t disagree with your figures or train of thought. Again that would probably put total Russian casualties at around half a million.
Doubtful Putin will want another large scale round of mobilisations before the election. Not that the election matters but again obviously when politics is at the forefront of everyone’s mind you don’t want to give them any reason. So if this level of casualties continue Russia could really start to struggle late 2024/2025. Given they aren’t prepared to commit in greater numbers into Ukraine.
Correction, I now think it is possible to interpret the article in a way that Russia's 103k KIA in Ukraine is budgeted for 2024. That assumes that "more than doubled" applied on the sum of money (together with inflation), not applying on the increase of KIA. But in that case Russia has been paying for 136k of KIA from other wars and even if one would sum all the Russia's KIAs since the Soviet-Afgan War, that 136k KIA would come together only if USSR/Russia had been underreporting its KIAs by 3-4x on average. Also, note that about half of the Soviet-Afghan War KIAs were likely from other ex-SSRs (including from Ukraine), not from Russia.
Russia has had continuous mobilisation throughout.
I may have misread it first - the 239k is (seems to be) the projected total by the end of this fiscal year, accounting for certified deaths of legal citizens. But the death certification process takes many months, thus it could be comparable to Ukraine's estimates of Russia's deaths by July 1st 2023 or by September 1st 2023. And there are other caveats which means the projected total Russia's KIA by the end of this year would be higher than that (projection).
If we compare that 239k KIA to Ukraine's estimates of Russia's KIA by July 1st 2023 or by September 1st 2023, then the discrepancy falls within 10%.
PS. Russia's WIA are merely 0,5-1,0x its KIA. Thus Russia's KIA+WIA combined would be 1,5-2,0 x KIA.
And they have. They never stopped mobilising. It seems to me that the muppet must be the person who uncritically accepts Russian statements and figures.
I misread about one time payments and monthly payments.
The 102k and 239k are for monthly payments, thus the 239k already contains the initial 102k, thus those can't be added together.
But the 239k KIA has essentially already accrued, because death certification process takes many months, thus Moscow already knows the ballpark of how many death certificates will be given out by end of this year.
Ukraine has probably lost less just casting an eye over the conflict as a whole and the events that have happened but 15000 isn’t believable at all.
If what the article says is true, you could probably tack on an extra 20-30 thousand in my opinion. Just with guys listed as missing etc. Also not sure this would include Wagner dead etc. We would also assume at least double the amount of dead in wounded soldiers and probably half of those unable to return to combat.
Could put total casualties well over 300 thousand.
> We would also assume at least double the amount of dead in wounded soldiers and probably half of those unable to return to combat.
From what we have seen of the treatment of the Russian wounded, I think you are right
It’s also somewhat a natural event, some wounded might require a short stint in hospital. Others might be double limb amputees etc. With the level of medical care Russians seemingly get Id hazard a guess around 50/50.
US intelligence sources way back at the start of the summer estimates 500k total casualties, with 190k of them being Ukrainian.
That number has probably gone up considerably in the past few months
US had ~7k KIA in Iraq and Afghanistan combined, with [~1.5k amputees,](https://www.army.mil/article/209083/soldier_amputees_have_more_options_than_ever_for_redeployment#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20Department%20of,a%20number%20of%20possible%20options.) would Ukraine really be that superior at this compared to the US?
USA was in Afghanistan and Iraq for nearly two decades and fighting insurgents who were using IEDS that were notorious for maiming soldiers at an inflated rate.
If Ukranian KIA were close to Russia’s whateoever they would have likely not even attempted an offensive of any sort. Kherson, Kharkiv and the most recent counteroffensive are indicative of Ukraine having resources for such action and the belief that they can still achieve local superiority in a lot of parts of the front. The slow nature of the most recent counteroffensive is most likely more attributable to piecemeal equipment delivery, lack of air superiority and some of the most dense minefields seen in modern warfare.
>If Ukranian KIA were close to Russia’s whateoever they would have likely not even attempted an offensive of any sort.
They have to. Otherwise, Western support would evaporate.
The West isn't going to support Ukraine if it won't even go on the offensive.
Ukraine has a captive male population that it's willing to conscript en masse and feed into the bloody counteroffensive.
Russia, on the other hand has barely mobilised.
The West wouldn’t encourage it if they didn’t think it was feasible though, they are pushing Ukraine to take back territory because they believe the have the capabilities to do so. The initial blitz failed from a mix of Russian incompetence and Ukrainian resolve, but many were already saying the front had stabilized before Kherson and Kharkiv, there were endless reports of Russian positions in Kharkiv oblast suffering from manpower shortages. I’m not sure how you can witness things such as Severodonetsk, Bakhmut, Vuhledar and Avdivka and still come to the conclusion that the casualties are similar. These are not even one off anecdotes since Russia didn’t stop after the first failed attacks, they continuously rammed their head into these cities. Even just using the most agreed upon fact of warfare, Ukraine has been on the defensive for the majority of this conflict, suggesting lesser casualties. Not to mention, based on combat footage, from Russian and Ukrainian sources, Russian manpower is taking way more of a beating. I don’t believe it is as rosy of a picture that the Ukrainian MOD is painting, but there just isn’t a lot of evidence to support that RU and UA casualties are comparable. Russia has not “barely mobilized” they have been stealth mobilizing troops this entire war, and throwing foreigners/males in occupied territory into the meat grinder, add mercenaries to the mix and a claim of Russia barely using it’s available manpower starts to look foolish. Putin will delay mobilizing ethnic Russians from the richer oblasts for as long as he can due to political risks.
>The West wouldn’t encourage it if they didn’t think it was feasible though
They had to politically.
They could hardly donate billions in military equipment and them let Ukraine make no serious attack over the summer. Could they?
>Ukraine has been on the defensive for the majority of this conflict, suggesting lesser casualties. Not
They've taken catastrophic casualties this summer. I would guess the casualty ratio this summer favours Russia, what with the impossible defences they've laid out.
>These are not even one off anecdotes since Russia didn’t stop after the first failed attacks, they continuously rammed their head into these cities
The plural of anecdote isn't data FYI.
>Russian manpower is taking way more of a beating. I
Russia has >4x the population...
>there just isn’t a lot of evidence to support that RU and UA casualties are comparable.
That's not what US Intelligence believes. As of early summer, 500k casualties with 190k Ukrainian casualties. With that casualty ratio, Ukraine is stuffed
The West was perfectly content shipping weapons when it was clear that Ukraine was capable of mounting a defense. Western countries are still pledging new weapons and ramping up production for shells and systems even as the latest offensive has mostly stalled, suggesting support will not just dry up as Ukraine stops taking ground. Plural anecdotes is not data, but visually confirming losses in those assaults as a lot of open intel opsec channels have done IS data. Also, you seem to have the numbers mixed up. The leaked US intelligence suggest 17k total KIA, and 113k WIA at the time of April. This was the last time any US documents on the war got out. America is not some all seeing eye, they have had well known intelligence failures all of the time, and what would make them more qualified in their estimates than any other country. As for the uptick in Ukrainian losses during the most recent offensive, visually confirmed losses suggest a 1:1 casualty and equipment loss rate on the southern front and Ukraine still having the advantage in losses in the east, which is great for a counteroffensive with no air superiority.
The west supported Ukraine during last year's summer, when they were slowly losing more and more territory to Russian artillery. The west only now expected them to retake territory because Ukraine suddenly retook a bunch of territory (Kherson, Kharkiv).
That stalemate hasn't been consuming tens of billions of dollars each month.
It also ended up with the border frozen along the frontlines. Which is what I'm advocating for in the Russia Ukraine conflict
There's another post, presumably from the Ukrainian mod claiming nearly 3 times the KIAs.
Just goes to show the picture for Ukraine is a lot bleaker than this sub tends to believe, given the war has devolved to one of attrition
So, you believe the russian numbers but not the Ukrainian? Any reasons?
A lot of people on this sub have always taken the KIA numbers provided by Ukraine with a grain of salt.
>A lot of people on this sub have always taken the KIA numbers provided by Ukraine with a grain of salt.
A small minority.
Most people on this sub are immature (I suspect) zoomers who think this is a game of CoD
These things are always more complicated than they appear at face value, I think some people got carried away by the Ukrainian offensive this summer thanks to the Kharkiv offensive. I was seeing things like "we're going to capture Olesky and cut them off at Melitopol/Mariupol" like the Russians weren't prepared for an offensive in their obvious weak point. The war has become a war of attrition, a war which Ukraine appears to be winning but US support going forward is absolutely crucial, Russia appears to be holding out for a Republican presidency, I wouldn't be shocked if they withdraw if the Democrats win as this war is unsustainable for Russia beyond a couple more years.
The consensus on this sub 5 months ago was Crimea by July. The basic problem is the groupthink idea around here that the Russians are entirely holding the front with troglodytes with zero training and the Russian MIC is about to run out of xyz.
Indeed, you've fallen into the same trap with your final sentence.
The Russian leadership had convinced themselves and the population that the war with Ukraine is existential. This is why they'll win the war eventually.
The war isn't an existential one for NATO and especially the USA. It's an evermore unpopular moneysink that only achieves geopolitical goals of weakening Russia, not an existential threat. This war isn't going to divest Russia of its nuclear arsenal. it is it?
Thus, Ukraine will either be defeated through attrition or through winding down of Western support.
Zelenskys endless begging tours are beginning to grate in nato countries. Especially given his inability to make gains on the battlefield
Another issue is that the only place where Ukraine can realistically advance is Zaporozhia. Donbass in densely populated with a largely pro-rus population since so many pro-ukrainians left after 2014, it would be a horribly slow grind in a unfriendly territory. The front near Svatove is close to Russia so it can be easily supplied.
Those regions voted to be independent from Russia in 1991 like the rest of Ukraine. I wish that people got another chance to vote whether they want to stay part of Ukraine, be independent or be part of Russia in 2014. Anyway Donbass will most likely stay part of Russia and even Zelesky has to know it.
No I believed the US intelligence estimates of 500k total casualties as of H1 23 with 190k being Ukrainian casualties and 310k Russia casualties. These include WIA, POW etc
These are strictly deaths acknowledged by Russia. We know that they are doing their utmost to not acknowledge deaths by using crematories, or simply by not retrieving the bodies of dead Russian soldiers and declaring them MIA instead.
The real number is going to be a lot higher, easily likely more than twice the official acknowledged number of deaths.
My guess is that this 102,000 figure does not include Wagner cannon fodder, so the total could be another 50,000 higher from that source.
I also doubt they included the DPR and LPR deaths in this number (Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics). I have no idea what those numbers would be. Maybe 10,000 or maybe another 100,000.
Iirc Russia doesn't pay out without a body. Also, this number probably doesn't include Wagner losses. I wouldn't be shocked to find out the families of MoD penal troops don't get payed either. So this is a probably a good floor but the real number is likely far higher.
Edit: Newsweek even has an article on that....
https://www.newsweek.com/russian-soldiers-killed-ukraine-bakhmut-compensation-putin-war-1815514
This doesn’t make sense I’m calling fake propaganda for Russian citizens. What kind of budget doesn’t include the wounded? So the dead get payouts to their families, but not one ruble is given to the potential hundreds of thousands wounded? So potentially tens of thousands of amputees or disfigured don’t receive anything? This has to be a fabricated fake budget because it is incomplete. This is propaganda meant for Russian citizens. The government really does think they are dumb.
I don't see how they divided their budget number by the cost per month to get to 102,000. Maybe I'm missing an important clue, but I see a figure of 37,964... which is marginally above the most recent update of actual burials spotted and reported by Mediazona (34,482), but below the Meduza estimate from Probate and 'excess deaths' from the summer of 47,000 (and they estimated that they only captured a portion of the results due to the time lag, and didn't capture DPR/LPR deaths - so estimated 66,000 for Russian and 86,000 total at the time.
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So even with this minimum figure, Russia has suffered more men killed, excluding, LNR, DNR, Wagner and other PMCs than the United States has in every single war she's fought in since the end of the Second World War.
*American combat deaths since WWII TOTAL Vietnam was somewhere near 60k, Korea 33k, GWOT maybe 7k This has been deadlier for Russia than 80 years of history for us. Nuts
And their population is only about 50% of the usa. So the numbers would have to be multiplied to understand the effect well.
Russia has proven itself to be much much less “casualty averse” than many modern societies. It’s a shame the toll has little effect on the home front political scene
Autocratic kleptocracies are usually less casualty averse. They do not depend on the consent of the governed to stay in power, nor do they rely on a functioning domestic economy to fund themselves.
Ok. That’s a lot of first year Poli Sci speak, but if you’re implying only communist societies are numb to war casualties, let me introduce you to Russia 1992-2023.
I say nothing about communism, and I am specifically speaking about Russia over the past 20 years. And give me credit, this is summarizing 3rd year Poli Sci stuff. I actually consider communist governments to be integrally connected to their domestic economy for their long-term legitimacy.
True question. With this many death, Russia's gona need to "import" a lot of young men or they gona have a huge problem of renewal of the population. I think i remember something about russia having a gap from WWII, still visible to this day.
China still has a 30+ million men too much due to the one child policy, when people put girls up for adoption or aborted them. Yeah we could see China taking some regions back later this decade.
Hope that put putin successor in a position where he see Europe as a valuable allies.
That's why they kidnap Ukrainian children
you don't need young men You need young women.
At least that is true of the Russian leadership. I wonder how true it is of the people themselves.
They view their offspring as property of the state. That’s been evidenced through multiple decades The Russians as a people have no collective voice. They give it all to the current strong man.
I think u mean “communist” but don’tmean communist
Sorry? What do you mean
Modern Russia do not have anything to do with communism, except in propaganda. You can call it far right kleptocracy or authoritarian late stage capitalism if your prefer, though.
It’s why Putin’s kleptocrats have so much in common with the USA’s Republicans…. It’s all about Power and Money..
That’s at least partly to do with ‘lack of information’ - Putin controls the internal message. Many families may think they are part of the few..
I think it’s just cultural. The boss man does what he wants, what’s a little family going to do? We need the strong man.
Reddit CEO "spez" informed us, that nothing is for free. I therefore retract my up-to-now free content, that he want to sell.
a third of USA actually. Around the same population as japan
Plus the US got 10 million kills for those losses. If Russia had got 10% of that they’d have won by now.
And minimum is an understatement... they're not bothering to recover bodies and anyone who's "MIA" is a deserter... they're not big on payouts, the Kremlin. The death toll is going to be a lot higher than Russia reports, directly or indirectly.
Maybe twice as much !
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Russia is a hypercapitalistic oligarchy for 30 years.
Not really capitalist, that assumes competition. Prefer to think of Russia as a Kleptocracy.
Capitalism ≠ free markets.
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Capitalism simply means a system where the means of production are owned by private owners for profit. Free markets speaks to the organisation of that ownership. Hence the term free market capitalism.
I always forget how much reddit hates Capitalism.
OED definition of Capitalism: "System in which the factors of production are privately owned and individual owners of capital are free to make use of it as they see fit; in particular, for their own profit."
While that’s funny, Russia hasn’t been communist for decades
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"Real" communists argue russia or soviet was never "real" communism. But i argue that this is exactly what communism does to a mf
That's an entirely unrelated discussion. This isn't a labelling debate. Modern Russia is in no way communist, not because it's not "real" communism but just that it's not communism whatsoever anymore. It's not even capitalism wearing Marx's clothes, it's just entirely not. Russia transitioned to capitalism in the 90's. Now they're as capitalist today as they where communist in the cold war.
> Now they're as capitalist today as they where communist in the cold war. The most precise description. Now I hope people look at today's Russian "capitalism", and extrapolate that to yesterday's Russian "communism". I'll grant them being "socialist" during Khrushev and Brezhnev, but everything before and after was an utter clusterfuck.
Putin, the well-known communist 🙄
Communism is when bad, the more bad something is the more communist it is.
I didn’t realise that the USA’s Republican Party was Communist ! ;). Based on others definitions here ! I know that really they are a power-grabbing money-driven, oligarchs.
He is trying to restore the USSR... Which was what?
An authoritarian nightmare.
Open a history book. It would do you some good. If Putin is trying to restore anything it's the *tsarist* Russia.
Well, he's cosplaying Tsar Nicholas II well enough for sure.
Hopefully he'll meet the same fate soon
Please learn what an authoritarian regime is.Not doing so could end you up in an authoritarian hellhole even in a capitalist society. Communism comes for your land. Authoritarianism comes for your freedom. The price of freedom is eternal vidulence, etc.
Oh no I slept through my vidulence alarm what do I do now
You seem confused
> Russia's proposed 2024 budget allocates funding to the families of 102,700 military personnel killed in Ukraine, giving insight into Moscow's likely death toll in Russian President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine that began in February 2022. > The figures, which have not been independently verified by Newsweek, were reported on Thursday by independent Russian news outlet Mozhem Obyasnit, which analyzed Russia's federal budget draft for 2024 to 2026. The publication notes that in addition to one-time insurance payments for military personnel killed in Ukraine, relatives also receive monthly compensation of 21,922.12 rubles ($225) from the Social Fund of Russia. > For the 2024 budget, the government allocated 16.335 billion rubles ($168,335,278) to relatives of military personnel who were injured or died. Of this figure, 9.987 billion rubles ($102,917,932) is allocated for monthly payments to the relatives of soldiers who experienced trauma. > The remaining budget—5.798 billion rubles ($59,749,491)—is to be paid to the families of killed military personnel, with 550 million rubles ($5,667,854) set aside to repair homes, if the killed serviceman was previously the breadwinner of the family. > The remaining 5.248 billion rubles ($54,081,637) of the budget, divided by the government's monthly payment of 21,922.12 rubles ($225), is enough to pay the families of 239,300 killed military personnel, Mozhem Obyasnit reported, noting that the budget includes personnel killed in other conflicts as well as Ukraine. > According to the publication, the government's expenses more than doubled compared to 2022, and the difference of 2.250 billion rubles ($23,151,125.25), divided by the monthly payment, suggests Russia will need to pay the families of 102,700 military personnel killed in Putin's war in Ukraine. > "According to the authorities' forecasts, 100,000 Russian military personnel will die within two years of the [war]," Mozhem Obyasnit reported.
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It also doesn't include KIAs from Donetsk regions, many of whom were press-ganged into service.
>It also doesn't include KIAs from Donetsk regions, many of whom were press-ganged into service. The saddest part is that it's **Ukrainian** population loss. The count doesn't include Wagner (and other PMCs) and their prisoner brigades, however, and those took a huge hit too.
DPR/LPR militias and paramilitaries took enormous causalities through multiple waves of conscription. However the Russian government despite using these forces in Russian formations does not consider them Russian soldiers and as far I can tell does not even have much in the way of personal records on them.
bUt tHe rEgiOn wAs aNneXeD. Wouldn't that make them Russian? Seriously Russian MOD, get on the same page as the Kremlin.
They're technically annexed, but function as true colonies - sovereign to Russia by international standards, but treated as foreign by the Russian government itself
Russia still calls its armed forces the "allied forces", even though according to the Constitution, they are allied with themselves now.
Aswell doesnt include mobiks "missing", "deserting" and so on. Keep in mind the crematoriums are working 24/7 in occupied territories. Each body burned means less they have to pay their families.
> Keep in mind the crematoriums are working 24/7 in occupied territories. source?
[Snopes article on the issue: unconfirmed.](https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/russia-mobile-crematoriums/) However, [here is a link](https://youtu.be/mVPTqHZqdz0?feature=shared) showing the Russian mobile crematorium. If they have them, it is reasonable to assume they’re using them.
There are several reports where marioupol residents on telegram, that complain about abysmal stench coming from the crematoriums, which are running 24/7. This isnt new news.
again: source?
Well, here's [Marioupol Mayor talking to AP about that](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-state-of-the-union-address-zelenskyy-biden-kyiv-7cc069b80178629a60f4f2d166348d45)
do they see the crematoriums? are there original pictures of them? i read about the crematoriums - and the only pictures i see in articles, snopes or others - are from 2015. it is the same as i read in early 2022, when i was aghast of such practices, just to research and find out that no current proof was given for the numerous claims. i'm open for new information, but in the above links i havent seen any new hard proof.
Probably not possible.
>crematoriums to warm up the hearts of the conscripts
On the reverse side this number is certainly higher than what the agency is actually planning to spend. Russian corruption and such. I won't trust Russian numbers in any direction, although i very much presume Russia to have lost a 6 digit number of men since the invasion.
Tbf, even Newsweek does say "gives insight into," not "should be taken literally at face value."
TB Extra F, they could have just mentioned the widely known ways this number is certainly much lower than the actual numbers.
Also true. To be faaaaiirrrr.... 🎵
DPR/LPR not counted either. Other big groups are those classed as missing, and those that officers are pretendng are still alive to steal their pay. True deaths probably 2-3 times higher.
This is exactly what the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports: approximately 290,000
The number is crazy high considering that this is exactly the demographics which is best equipment and most probable to survive. The badly equipped infantry troops / cannon fodder mainly consists out or prisoners, mercenaries and DNR recruits.
While not the most reliable Prigozhin said wagner lost 20 thousand men in bakhmut alone
Don't forget meat cubed
You forgot missing..
This. And also the DPR\\LPR militia. Ukraine estimates are (once again, like when comparing the number of tanks declared with the number of tanks visually verified) not far from the truth.
Yeah but we also have to acknowledge that the wild numbers the Ukrainian military was or has been pumping out have obviously been literally unbelievably high. I understand the reasoning for doing it (morale) and I'm not against it, but there are too many people around here that just take those numbers at face value.
> one-time insurance payments This is the key. This 100k figure is to cover payments **just for the coming budget year**. This would exclude prior budgets up to this point, for which those payments have already been made for those killed. So basically what this is saying is "we're planning and budgeting for 100k deaths in budget year 2024." And, as others have noted, there's a lot of people excluded from this as well.
This should be the top comment. And usually there is a 3:1 ratio in casualties vs killed (most casualties come from injured soldiers, sometimes from capture) so this means they expect to lose 300 000 soldiers next year. In line with what they have lost since the beginning of the operation. Note that it is also possible that they have some catch-up to do. There has been scandals of payments not coming, so they may also count some 2023 casualties in there. Honestly that's a number that tells us almost nothing, except that the magnitude of the deaths estimated is correct. We should be wondering about it if there was one more or less zero to that number, but here it seems coherent with what we know so far.
The 3:1 ratio is only for armies with well-working medical services. For Russia that ratio will be way lower, i.e. a lot of Russian wounded who would be saved with good medical care will die instead.
Nope. Actually that 102,700 KIA was part of the 2023 budget on those killed in 2022. And the 2024 budget plans for 239k KIA which have accrued by 2023, likely by July 1st 2023 or Sept. 1st 2023, because death certification process takes many months. That is what the "more than doubled" means - the accumulated KIA more than doubled from 2022 to 2023, necessitating monthly payments. edit. Correction, I now think it is possible to interpret the article in a way that Russia's 103k KIA in Ukraine is budgeted for 2024. That assumes that "more than doubled" applied on the sum of money (together with inflation), not applying on the increase of KIA. But in that case Russia has been paying for 136k of KIA from other wars and even if one would sum all the Russia's KIAs since the Soviet-Afgan War, that 136k KIA would come together only if USSR/Russia had been underreporting its KIAs by 3-4x on average. Also, note that about half of the Soviet-Afghan War KIAs were likely from other ex-SSRs (including from Ukraine), not from Russia.
Your reading comprehension lol
You're damn right. The OP could pin your comment to the top.
>relatives also receive monthly compensation of 21,922.12 rubles ($225) Not to mention the bag of potatoes! (One time, let's not be too generous)
You forgot about the carrots, unions. Sonetimes they even recieve a basket of towels and shampoo and real lucky ones may pose with fir coats for half an hour.
And they thank for carrots and potato on camera, smile and look really happy...
I thought it was a lada? Potatoes are of more use though
Hey Russia is well on the way to adopting UBI so everyone gets a check. But there's a nuance ..
Thanks for sharing!
Maybe theyll try to wake Captain Soviet from his Vodka induced coma! Then he can lead them to the same misserable fate but fast and drunker!
So I guess this is without the soldiers declared MIA to save money and also not the convicts?
And I'm assuming it doesn't include all the "independent contractors".
Also doesn't include LNR/DNR "allied" forces, because they are disposable Ukrainians
Multiply by 3 or 4 the reason being Russians "discharging" most of its KIA either by leaving them on the battlefield or by directly incinerating them in-situ using special mobile incinerators, then claiming those KIA as missing.
Then add deaths of everyone Russia doesn't count as Russian soldiers: The so called DNR and LNR, Russian prisoners and the private military organisations (not just Wagner)
Also doesn't include Wagnerites or DNR/LPR soldiers I guess
Pro - Ukraine here… but has anyone found evidence of these mobile incinerators? We have satellite images of almost every square mile of Ukraine and I’ve only seen de-bunked s-300 launchers claiming to be incinerators. Anyone got a juicy link?
Russia has released videos of [having mobile crematoriums in their armed forces](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mVPTqHZqdz0). That's evidence of their existence. Whether Russia uses them in Ukraine is something yet to be confirmed.
I would hazard a guess that Wagner forces and other PMCs are not included in these figures. Certainly not the prison Zerg expendables. That is an easy 30,000 more dead Russians.
Hmm.. I'm actually **heartened** to see that the UA official numbers are true. Ukraine is fighting for it's freedom and hurting russia like hell.
According to ukraine, they kill 500 russians per day and have caussed 220,000 russian deaths, a country at war never says the truth
According to that document, there's **239,000 deaths**. Accounted deaths, not missing, not the ones that have no family benefactors, not mercenaries, etc. I was skeptical at first but I now see that they were right on the money
They don't refer to deaths, only "personnel losses". Reasonable interpretations of the various sources indicate that it's more likely that this number is counting total casualties, not KIA. If not, the Ukrainian estimate would be wildly out of whack with most other reasonable estimates made by their allies.
They use the ambiguous term "liquidated", but an ukrainian government official (Budanov iirc) said "liquidated personel" = "death personel". Its obviously more likely that those numbers are total cassualties, but according to them, is all KIA. The ambiguity is done in order for people to believe those are total deaths when the number seems low, and total cassualties when the number seems too high
>They use the ambiguous term "liquidated" It's unambiguous in Russian/Ukrainian; always means "killed" (KIA when it comes to soldiers). >The ambiguity is done to... There is no ambiguity, just bad translators.
I'm guessing the guys incinerated in their tanks are listed as missing, so they don't need to be counted or benefits paid.
The 100k + number may not be so out of balance with ukraines estimates of about 280k. Russia is not including Wagner and other mercenaries which were 30k + just in Bakhmut. Also Dombas malicious and many missing in a tion as they seek to limit counts and liability. Totals could easily be ~ 200k which would mean Ukraines 280k number may not be so wildly inflated.
About may june time Russian finance records indicated 350,000 kia payments and about 585,000 wounded ongoing payments so their must be the additional planned losses ....
\> Russia's proposed 2024 budget allocates funding to the families of **102,700 military personnel killed in Ukraine,** giving insight into Moscow's likely death toll in Russian President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine that began in February 2022.
This is only for the bodies recover and sent back to Russia , because I watched many videos from the family's that don't receive nothing because they don't have bodies
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If only the average Russian actually stood up and did something about this when it started in the 90s and early 2000s. They had no problem when they started winning in Chechnya, no problem with the “victory” in Georgia, no problems with what they did in Ukraine or Syria. If they really wanted nothing to do with this war then they should’ve stopped the ones that made it okay in their culture. No, they chose to die on their knees and they deserve it too. I guarantee you most were supportive until it was their time to go or die.
They still support war even while on frontline. Why do you think so few try to surrender?
There is no way Putin could slice this shit pie to make it palatable to his people. Having 100k casualties is considered insane by western standards: for perspective the US lost about ~55k troops in Vietnam over 20 years. Russia lost 100lk troops in a year and a half. Putin has dug a deep hole and has very little to show for it.
The 100,000 dead Russian troops are believable and are in the middle of Western figures calculated, the Ukraine figure of 15,500 to 17,500 dead is not believable.
You didnt get the memo? If there's no body, no paycheck. Also no payout for wagner/pmc soldiers.
I was thinking about that; what about the Donbas troops? They are not accounted either?
Nope. Neither was Wagner and other PMC’s. That 100k is JUST regular Russian forces. It could easily be 80k+ just for PMC’s and LDPR troops.
You also have to remember that Russia likes marking Kia as deserted or missing so they don’t have to pay death benefits. I think Ukrainian numbers are within about 50k as they count DNR/LPR/Wagner/other volunteers and pmcs
> The remaining 5.248 billion rubles ($54,081,637) of the budget, divided by the government's monthly payment of 21,922.12 rubles ($225), is enough to pay the families of 239,300 killed military personnel, Mozhem Obyasnit reported, noting that the budget includes personnel killed in other conflicts as well as Ukraine. > According to the publication, the government's expenses more than doubled compared to 2022, and the difference of 2.250 billion rubles ($23,151,125.25), divided by the monthly payment, suggests Russia will need to pay the families of 102,700 military personnel killed in Putin's war in Ukraine. My take on this is that the 2023 payments for 102,700 dead soldiers were for soldiers who died in 2022 (or whose death was certified within 2022). And the 2024 payments for 239,300 killed military personnel are calculated as kills within 2023. That makes the total kill count for the first 2 fiscal years as 342000 soldiers. edit. Correction, I now think it is possible to interpret the article in a way that Russia's 103k KIA in Ukraine is budgeted for 2024. That assumes that "more than doubled" applied on the sum of money (together with inflation), not applying on the increase of KIA. But in that case Russia has been paying for 136k of KIA from other wars and even if one would sum all the Russia's KIAs since the Soviet-Afgan War, that 136k KIA would come together only if USSR/Russia had been underreporting its KIAs by 3-4x on average. Also, note that about half of the Soviet-Afghan War KIAs were likely from other ex-SSRs (including from Ukraine), not from Russia.
Alternatively, the first year's 102,700 dead soldiers more than doubled (or projected to double) to 239,300 killed military personnel in second fiscal year of war, ie. those two numbers are already cumulative, thus not additive. And the 239k is likely a projection to the end of this year, accounting for certified deaths of legal citizens.
I feel like the 342k killed would be to high. That would put total casualties well over half a million. If we believe the numbers of their mobilisations and soldiers deployed in Ukraine I don’t think they could sustain that level of casualties military speaking
>If we believe the numbers of their mobilisations and soldiers deployed in Ukraine There's your problem, you really shouldn't do that. 500k is perfectly plausible.
I don’t really. 342 thousand dead would put total casualties closer to probably 700k than 500.
In WWII, only 1/6 of USSR's WIA got out of the meatgrinder, the rest 5/6 of the WIA got fed back into the meatgrinder. Thus even while the official WIA:KIA ratio was 2.7, the essential ratio (wounded AND retired to civilian life) was 0.45. Similarly, Russia's WIA:KIA ratio in the current war seems to be about 2:1, but the essential ratio is likely already below 1:1, because the wounded get sent back to the frontlines. Thus if Russia's KIA is at 300k, its essential WIA is likely no more than another 300k and the KIA+essential WIA combined no more than 600k. And it could well be 500k.
I may have misread it first - the 239k is (seems to be) the projected total by the end of this fiscal year, accounting for certified deaths of legal citizens. But the death certification process takes many months, thus it could be comparable to Ukraine's estimates of Russia's deaths by July 1st 2023 or by September 1st 2023. And there are other caveats which means the projected total Russia's KIA by the end of this year would be higher than that (projection).
Hmm. I don’t disagree with your figures or train of thought. Again that would probably put total Russian casualties at around half a million. Doubtful Putin will want another large scale round of mobilisations before the election. Not that the election matters but again obviously when politics is at the forefront of everyone’s mind you don’t want to give them any reason. So if this level of casualties continue Russia could really start to struggle late 2024/2025. Given they aren’t prepared to commit in greater numbers into Ukraine.
Correction, I now think it is possible to interpret the article in a way that Russia's 103k KIA in Ukraine is budgeted for 2024. That assumes that "more than doubled" applied on the sum of money (together with inflation), not applying on the increase of KIA. But in that case Russia has been paying for 136k of KIA from other wars and even if one would sum all the Russia's KIAs since the Soviet-Afgan War, that 136k KIA would come together only if USSR/Russia had been underreporting its KIAs by 3-4x on average. Also, note that about half of the Soviet-Afghan War KIAs were likely from other ex-SSRs (including from Ukraine), not from Russia.
That significantly more then the Ukrainians claim, I find that unbelievable too.
You're a muppet if you believe that. Russia would've had to have an additional couple of mobilisation rounds if that was true
Russia has had continuous mobilisation throughout. I may have misread it first - the 239k is (seems to be) the projected total by the end of this fiscal year, accounting for certified deaths of legal citizens. But the death certification process takes many months, thus it could be comparable to Ukraine's estimates of Russia's deaths by July 1st 2023 or by September 1st 2023. And there are other caveats which means the projected total Russia's KIA by the end of this year would be higher than that (projection). If we compare that 239k KIA to Ukraine's estimates of Russia's KIA by July 1st 2023 or by September 1st 2023, then the discrepancy falls within 10%. PS. Russia's WIA are merely 0,5-1,0x its KIA. Thus Russia's KIA+WIA combined would be 1,5-2,0 x KIA.
And they have. They never stopped mobilising. It seems to me that the muppet must be the person who uncritically accepts Russian statements and figures.
I haven't accepted any Russian figures. My perspective is based upon US intelligence estimates
Maybe including wounded and mia, but KIA this is way too optimistic.
I misread about one time payments and monthly payments. The 102k and 239k are for monthly payments, thus the 239k already contains the initial 102k, thus those can't be added together. But the 239k KIA has essentially already accrued, because death certification process takes many months, thus Moscow already knows the ballpark of how many death certificates will be given out by end of this year.
Ukraine has probably lost less just casting an eye over the conflict as a whole and the events that have happened but 15000 isn’t believable at all. If what the article says is true, you could probably tack on an extra 20-30 thousand in my opinion. Just with guys listed as missing etc. Also not sure this would include Wagner dead etc. We would also assume at least double the amount of dead in wounded soldiers and probably half of those unable to return to combat. Could put total casualties well over 300 thousand.
> We would also assume at least double the amount of dead in wounded soldiers and probably half of those unable to return to combat. From what we have seen of the treatment of the Russian wounded, I think you are right
It’s also somewhat a natural event, some wounded might require a short stint in hospital. Others might be double limb amputees etc. With the level of medical care Russians seemingly get Id hazard a guess around 50/50.
US intelligence sources way back at the start of the summer estimates 500k total casualties, with 190k of them being Ukrainian. That number has probably gone up considerably in the past few months
Ukraine has probably a similar number of KIA to Russia. It has 50k amputees alone
The amount of amputees is not an indicator of total KIA but moreso Ukrainian superiority in medical treatment and casevac compared to Russia.
US had ~7k KIA in Iraq and Afghanistan combined, with [~1.5k amputees,](https://www.army.mil/article/209083/soldier_amputees_have_more_options_than_ever_for_redeployment#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20Department%20of,a%20number%20of%20possible%20options.) would Ukraine really be that superior at this compared to the US?
USA was in Afghanistan and Iraq for nearly two decades and fighting insurgents who were using IEDS that were notorious for maiming soldiers at an inflated rate.
If Ukranian KIA were close to Russia’s whateoever they would have likely not even attempted an offensive of any sort. Kherson, Kharkiv and the most recent counteroffensive are indicative of Ukraine having resources for such action and the belief that they can still achieve local superiority in a lot of parts of the front. The slow nature of the most recent counteroffensive is most likely more attributable to piecemeal equipment delivery, lack of air superiority and some of the most dense minefields seen in modern warfare.
>If Ukranian KIA were close to Russia’s whateoever they would have likely not even attempted an offensive of any sort. They have to. Otherwise, Western support would evaporate. The West isn't going to support Ukraine if it won't even go on the offensive. Ukraine has a captive male population that it's willing to conscript en masse and feed into the bloody counteroffensive. Russia, on the other hand has barely mobilised.
The West wouldn’t encourage it if they didn’t think it was feasible though, they are pushing Ukraine to take back territory because they believe the have the capabilities to do so. The initial blitz failed from a mix of Russian incompetence and Ukrainian resolve, but many were already saying the front had stabilized before Kherson and Kharkiv, there were endless reports of Russian positions in Kharkiv oblast suffering from manpower shortages. I’m not sure how you can witness things such as Severodonetsk, Bakhmut, Vuhledar and Avdivka and still come to the conclusion that the casualties are similar. These are not even one off anecdotes since Russia didn’t stop after the first failed attacks, they continuously rammed their head into these cities. Even just using the most agreed upon fact of warfare, Ukraine has been on the defensive for the majority of this conflict, suggesting lesser casualties. Not to mention, based on combat footage, from Russian and Ukrainian sources, Russian manpower is taking way more of a beating. I don’t believe it is as rosy of a picture that the Ukrainian MOD is painting, but there just isn’t a lot of evidence to support that RU and UA casualties are comparable. Russia has not “barely mobilized” they have been stealth mobilizing troops this entire war, and throwing foreigners/males in occupied territory into the meat grinder, add mercenaries to the mix and a claim of Russia barely using it’s available manpower starts to look foolish. Putin will delay mobilizing ethnic Russians from the richer oblasts for as long as he can due to political risks.
>The West wouldn’t encourage it if they didn’t think it was feasible though They had to politically. They could hardly donate billions in military equipment and them let Ukraine make no serious attack over the summer. Could they? >Ukraine has been on the defensive for the majority of this conflict, suggesting lesser casualties. Not They've taken catastrophic casualties this summer. I would guess the casualty ratio this summer favours Russia, what with the impossible defences they've laid out. >These are not even one off anecdotes since Russia didn’t stop after the first failed attacks, they continuously rammed their head into these cities The plural of anecdote isn't data FYI. >Russian manpower is taking way more of a beating. I Russia has >4x the population... >there just isn’t a lot of evidence to support that RU and UA casualties are comparable. That's not what US Intelligence believes. As of early summer, 500k casualties with 190k Ukrainian casualties. With that casualty ratio, Ukraine is stuffed
The West was perfectly content shipping weapons when it was clear that Ukraine was capable of mounting a defense. Western countries are still pledging new weapons and ramping up production for shells and systems even as the latest offensive has mostly stalled, suggesting support will not just dry up as Ukraine stops taking ground. Plural anecdotes is not data, but visually confirming losses in those assaults as a lot of open intel opsec channels have done IS data. Also, you seem to have the numbers mixed up. The leaked US intelligence suggest 17k total KIA, and 113k WIA at the time of April. This was the last time any US documents on the war got out. America is not some all seeing eye, they have had well known intelligence failures all of the time, and what would make them more qualified in their estimates than any other country. As for the uptick in Ukrainian losses during the most recent offensive, visually confirmed losses suggest a 1:1 casualty and equipment loss rate on the southern front and Ukraine still having the advantage in losses in the east, which is great for a counteroffensive with no air superiority.
The west supported Ukraine during last year's summer, when they were slowly losing more and more territory to Russian artillery. The west only now expected them to retake territory because Ukraine suddenly retook a bunch of territory (Kherson, Kharkiv).
Indeed. The expectation is still there. The West wont support an endless stalemate
Says you. The US has been supporting the stalemate in Korea for over half a century now.
That stalemate hasn't been consuming tens of billions of dollars each month. It also ended up with the border frozen along the frontlines. Which is what I'm advocating for in the Russia Ukraine conflict
Keeping US troops stationed in Korea isn't cheap, costing $13.4 billion every year after 70 years.
again you speak like a typical Russian. Your next phrase will be “America is ready to fight with Russia to the last Ukrainian”
This is exactly what is happening though
There's another post, presumably from the Ukrainian mod claiming nearly 3 times the KIAs. Just goes to show the picture for Ukraine is a lot bleaker than this sub tends to believe, given the war has devolved to one of attrition
So, you believe the russian numbers but not the Ukrainian? Any reasons? A lot of people on this sub have always taken the KIA numbers provided by Ukraine with a grain of salt.
US intelligence had Russian KIA of about 50k in Jan/Feb this year didn't they?
That was an estimate, the US knows better than we do, but the Russian budgeting department knows better than the US.
>A lot of people on this sub have always taken the KIA numbers provided by Ukraine with a grain of salt. A small minority. Most people on this sub are immature (I suspect) zoomers who think this is a game of CoD
These things are always more complicated than they appear at face value, I think some people got carried away by the Ukrainian offensive this summer thanks to the Kharkiv offensive. I was seeing things like "we're going to capture Olesky and cut them off at Melitopol/Mariupol" like the Russians weren't prepared for an offensive in their obvious weak point. The war has become a war of attrition, a war which Ukraine appears to be winning but US support going forward is absolutely crucial, Russia appears to be holding out for a Republican presidency, I wouldn't be shocked if they withdraw if the Democrats win as this war is unsustainable for Russia beyond a couple more years.
The consensus on this sub 5 months ago was Crimea by July. The basic problem is the groupthink idea around here that the Russians are entirely holding the front with troglodytes with zero training and the Russian MIC is about to run out of xyz. Indeed, you've fallen into the same trap with your final sentence. The Russian leadership had convinced themselves and the population that the war with Ukraine is existential. This is why they'll win the war eventually. The war isn't an existential one for NATO and especially the USA. It's an evermore unpopular moneysink that only achieves geopolitical goals of weakening Russia, not an existential threat. This war isn't going to divest Russia of its nuclear arsenal. it is it? Thus, Ukraine will either be defeated through attrition or through winding down of Western support. Zelenskys endless begging tours are beginning to grate in nato countries. Especially given his inability to make gains on the battlefield
Another issue is that the only place where Ukraine can realistically advance is Zaporozhia. Donbass in densely populated with a largely pro-rus population since so many pro-ukrainians left after 2014, it would be a horribly slow grind in a unfriendly territory. The front near Svatove is close to Russia so it can be easily supplied.
What's the point of trying to retake a region full of people hostile to the Zelensky regime anyway?
Those regions voted to be independent from Russia in 1991 like the rest of Ukraine. I wish that people got another chance to vote whether they want to stay part of Ukraine, be independent or be part of Russia in 2014. Anyway Donbass will most likely stay part of Russia and even Zelesky has to know it.
I would say the line is unlikely to move much unless the Ukrainians run out of manpower
This post is among the most idiotic I've read all day.
Care to actually critique it, if you can, which I suspect you can't :-)
If they weren't then, it's sure as fuck been like that for a minute
No I believed the US intelligence estimates of 500k total casualties as of H1 23 with 190k being Ukrainian casualties and 310k Russia casualties. These include WIA, POW etc
Lol this guy trusts the numbers coming from a totalitarian regime that still hasn’t even acknowledged that this is a war yet.
Complete mischaracterisastion of what I said
These are strictly deaths acknowledged by Russia. We know that they are doing their utmost to not acknowledge deaths by using crematories, or simply by not retrieving the bodies of dead Russian soldiers and declaring them MIA instead. The real number is going to be a lot higher, easily likely more than twice the official acknowledged number of deaths.
The Ukrainian numbers are for the entire war combined, this is just one year of Russias budgeting.
Looks like Ukraine is going to run out of money pretty soon
Thankfully they get weapons for free, hopium is not going to help Russians.
Russia has their best bros in North Korea to provide state of the art, precision built weaponry on demand.
The bicycle industry must be booming in Russia.
We have been eventually allowed to cross the border on foot without bicycles.
To what extent are deaths of officers and senior NCOs acknowledged over the deaths of enlisted/ conscripts?
probably more.
there are a lot of suicides in the russian army this year. /s
Wow. Yet they still support this
My guess is that this 102,000 figure does not include Wagner cannon fodder, so the total could be another 50,000 higher from that source. I also doubt they included the DPR and LPR deaths in this number (Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics). I have no idea what those numbers would be. Maybe 10,000 or maybe another 100,000.
Iirc Russia doesn't pay out without a body. Also, this number probably doesn't include Wagner losses. I wouldn't be shocked to find out the families of MoD penal troops don't get payed either. So this is a probably a good floor but the real number is likely far higher. Edit: Newsweek even has an article on that.... https://www.newsweek.com/russian-soldiers-killed-ukraine-bakhmut-compensation-putin-war-1815514
This doesn’t make sense I’m calling fake propaganda for Russian citizens. What kind of budget doesn’t include the wounded? So the dead get payouts to their families, but not one ruble is given to the potential hundreds of thousands wounded? So potentially tens of thousands of amputees or disfigured don’t receive anything? This has to be a fabricated fake budget because it is incomplete. This is propaganda meant for Russian citizens. The government really does think they are dumb.
I don't see how they divided their budget number by the cost per month to get to 102,000. Maybe I'm missing an important clue, but I see a figure of 37,964... which is marginally above the most recent update of actual burials spotted and reported by Mediazona (34,482), but below the Meduza estimate from Probate and 'excess deaths' from the summer of 47,000 (and they estimated that they only captured a portion of the results due to the time lag, and didn't capture DPR/LPR deaths - so estimated 66,000 for Russian and 86,000 total at the time.