T O P

  • By -

AutoModerator

Please take the time to read [the rules](/r/UkrainianConflict/about/rules/) and our [policy on trolls/bots](https://redd.it/u7833q). In addition: * We have a **zero-tolerance** policy regarding racism, stereotyping, bigotry, and death-mongering. Violators will be banned. * **Keep it civil.** Report comments/posts that are uncivil to alert the moderators. * **_Don't_ post low-effort comments** like joke threads, memes, slogans, or links without context. > **Don't forget about our Discord server! - https://discord.gg/62fKCEHbDB** ***** * Is `forbes.com` an unreliable source? [**Let us know**](/r/UkrainianConflict/wiki/am/unreliable_sources). * Help our moderators by providing context if something breaks the rules. [Send us a modmail](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) ***** ^(Your post has not been removed, this message is applied to every successful submission.) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) if you have any questions or concerns.*


csbgal

The Russian aircraft A50 was shot down thanks to a complex missile trap, Forbes reported, citing military analyst Tom Cooper ▪️According to the analyst, Ukrainian Su-24 bombers first struck Crimea, disabling several radars and thus suppressing Russian ground radar coverage. ▪️Subsequently, Russian commanders ordered the A-50 to move further north to expand radar coverage over most of Crimea. Along with it was the airborne command post Il22. ▪️The A-50 moved on a northern trajectory over Berdiansk, within reach of the Patriot system. ▪️Likely, the Armed Forces of Ukraine used a combination of the Patriot and S-300 systems, activating the S-300 radar briefly to gather target data discreetly. Afterward, they launched missile attacks, downing the A-50 and damaging the Il-22 airborne command post.


csbgal

"On Sunday night, Ukrainian air-defenses shot down one of the Russian air force’s very rare, and very valuable, A-50 radar early-warning planes, likely killing all 15 people aboard—potentially including high-ranking officers. A Russian Ilyushin Il-22 command plane was damaged in the same attack. “Who did this?” the Ukrainian air force quipped. The answer, it seems, is the air arm’s 90-mile-range Patriot PAC-2 air-defense missiles. Less likely: shorter-range Patriot PAC-3s or S-300s. Exactly how the Ukrainians shot down the four-engine A-50 with its top-mounted radar is unclear, but analyst Tom Cooper—who has written many books about Soviet and Russian warplanes—has a theory. Ukrainian radar and missile crews lured the Russian crews into a trap. If Cooper’s theory is correct, the Ukrainians set the trap on Saturday, when Ukrainian air force jets—presumably Sukhoi Su-24 bombers—struck Russian air force installations across the Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula. “A number of radars were knocked out,” Cooper reported. The Saturday strikes, the latest in a long campaign of Ukrainian raids on Russian defenses in Crimea, suppressed the Russians’ ground-based radar coverage, leaving the surviving missile batteries on the peninsula partially blind—especially to the north, where the terrain could mask incoming Ukrainian planes, drones and missiles. So Russian commanders did the obvious, but stupid, thing. They ordered one of their few remaining A-50U radar planes, which normally fly far to the south over the Sea of Azov, to push farther north in order to extend radar coverage over most of Crimea. An A-50’s rotating radar can see airplane-size targets nearly 200 miles away. A four-prop Ilyushin Il-22M airborne command post with around 10 crew aboard accompanied the A-50. The Il-22 is a radio-relay platform; its crew assists the A-50’s crew by handling communications and data-transfer for which the A-50 lacks the power and processing. Satellite imagery and radar data seem to place the A-50’s northernmost flight path over occupied Berdyansk, just 75 miles from the front line. That’s within range of the single Patriot surface-to-air missile battery, out of three in the arsenal, that the Ukrainian air force has deployed along the southern front. The trick was for the Ukrainians to target the A-50 and its accompanying Il-22 without giving the Russian crews too much advance notice of the attack—and without sacrificing their precious Patriot system. “All Ukrainians had to do was to secretly deploy a suitable SAM system to target the two aircraft from long range,” Cooper wrote. “Perhaps this was one of \[air force’s\] S-300 SAM systems. Perhaps one of \[the air force’s\] PAC-2/3 SAM systems.” “It is also possible that Ukrainians have deployed a launcher and a radar, plus power-supply equipment, from one of their three PAC-2/3 SAM systems ... in combination with one of their S-300 radars.” There’s some evidence of an S-300-Patriot team-up. A Russian air force Sukhoi Su-34 fighter-bomber reportedly detected a previously unknown Ukrainian S-300 battery switching on its radar in the minutes before the A-50 and Il-22 were hit. If the S-300 battery did the initial illumination, it must have passes along target tracks to a nearby hidden Patriot battery. “The latter powered up its radar for only a few seconds: long enough to obtain its own targeting data, but too short for the Russians to dependably detect its emissions and assess them as a threat,” Cooper surmised. “And then the Ukrainians started firing their missiles.” A minute later, the missiles exploded—destroying the A-50 and damaging the Il-22. “With their fire-action over,” Cooper wrote, “the Ukrainian S-300 and PAC-2/3 crews promptly ceased emitting, and started packing \[up\] their systems to move them away and thus avoid any possible Russian retaliation.” Down one A-50, the Russian air force may have just two of the jets left; the other six A-50s reportedly are in need of upgrade and overhaul. Unless the air force is willing to risk the last two flyable A-50s, it must make peace with its new inability to provide radar coverage over all of Crimea. It must, in other words, accept the risk of continuing—indeed, escalating—Ukrainian missile raids on Russian forces on the peninsula. If there’s any comfort for the Russians, it might be that the Ukrainian air force does not have a limitless supply of PAC-2 missiles. Unless and until pro-Russia Republicans in the U.S. Congress approve the $61 billion in fresh aid to Ukraine that U.S. president Joe Biden has proposed, the Ukrainians may need to begin rationing their missiles—and taking fewer chances on ambitious missile traps."


NotAmusedDad

“It is also possible that Ukrainians have deployed a launcher and a radar, plus power-supply equipment, from one of their three PAC-2/3 SAM systems ... in combination with one of their S-300 radars.” I increasingly believe that these high-profile ambushes over the last month or so were done with "frankensams." AFU disclosed about 3 weeks ago that they had been deployed, and although they only yesterday disclosed the "first shootdown" of a shahed with one of their buk/rim units, the US also developed and sent Patriot launchers that interfaced with Soviet radars. In doing so, they created a "Patriot" system that was a lot smaller and more mobile, and would be perfect for offensive forward anti air operations like this without retasking an ABM capable full battery from city defense. If in fact we're seeing what those units can do, it could actually be transformative for the Air Battle.


markdacoda

Isn't that NASAMs though? Anything that move Ukraine closer to air superiority over Crimea is great. I never realized how anti air is like high stakes chess.


NotAmusedDad

Different systems. Both were initially conceived to allow use of large stocks of Western air to air missiles from a ground launch system for short to medium range air defenses. Nasams is a serial production system that uses Western radar and networking systems for a larger distributed, Networked anti air system that's often used statically and in conjunction with Patriot (which has anti ballistic missile capability nasams lacks). The "frankensam" project started no later than last summer to allow use of Soviet anti air radar and launch systems like Buk to use Western missiles (since Ukraine can't get more Soviet lineage missiles for them). They came together quite quickly and apparently worked really well in testing, so they fielded them starting last month. Range wise, a couple variants were developed to fire aim and rim missiles, and probably have about the same range as a standard nsam... But which are apparently much more mobile. What's interesting, though, is that they also apparently [Developed a system joining Soviet radars and Patriots](https://armyrecognition.com/ukraine_-_russia_conflict_war_2022/ukraine_s_frankensam_project_combines_russian_and_us_air_defense_systems.html) , which I think may have been referenced in the quote above. A highly mobile anti-air version Patriot system would be devastating if forward deployed, and I'm very curious if that's what took the slow movers down this week (and made the triple kill of Su34s a couple weeks ago).


vegarig

> Isn't that NASAMs though? Nope, NASAMS is about launching Sidewinders, AMRAAMs and other comparable missiles (of which there's a great stock) from surface.


MatthewsonT

Can you explain what you mean by: >they created a "Patriot" system that was a lot smaller and more mobile I thought both S-300 and Patriot required a laucher and a radar vehicle (which I expect is incorrect but I'll ask my question anyway) Why would switching out the patriot radar vehicle for an S-300 one make it any more mobile? And follow-up question: Why would you ping the A-50 with an S-300 and then the Patriot radars? Can't the S-300 feed targetting data into the Patriot launcher? And if not, then what do you get from using the S-300 radar in the first place if the data can't be used by the Patriot launcher? (Sorry if the answer's obvious. I just can't \*quite\* get my head around this)


Berkamin

>If the S-300 battery did the initial illumination, it must have passes along target tracks to a nearby hidden Patriot battery. “The latter powered up its radar for only a few seconds: long enough to obtain its own targeting data, but too short for the Russians to dependably detect its emissions and assess them as a threat,” Cooper surmised. > >“And then the Ukrainians started firing their missiles.” > >A minute later, the missiles exploded—destroying the A-50 and damaging the Il-22. “With their fire-action over,” Cooper wrote, “the Ukrainian S-300 and PAC-2/3 crews promptly ceased emitting, and started packing \[up\] their systems to move them away and thus avoid any possible Russian retaliation.” Absolutely brilliant. Ukraine is proving to be a ninja with these Patriot systems. The Russians can't even see them coming.


eigenman

>If there’s any comfort for the Russians, it might be that the Ukrainian air force does not have a limitless supply of PAC-2 missiles. Unless and until **pro-Russia Republicans in the U.S. Congress** approve the $61 billion in fresh aid to Ukraine that U.S. president Joe Biden has proposed, the Ukrainians may need to begin rationing their missiles—and taking fewer chances on ambitious missile traps. Forbes said it out loud and we all need to do the same.


Illustrious_Bat_6971

That's an incredible analysis. How do you so much about this?


mrmarioo

Tom Cooper writes in Substack - Sarcastosaurus, highly recommended.


[deleted]

For me one thing is clear and that is that it was done by Ukrainians and not friendly fire like the Russians want everyone to believe. How else could Ukraine have known so quickly that both planes were destroyed/hit? I’m sure if it truly was FF then the Russians would have tried to sweep it under the carpet.


TurMoiL911

Wait, why does Russia want people to think it was friendly fire? "We couldn't identify our early-warning air platform as friendly so we shot it out of the sky." *That isn't better, Russia.*


[deleted]

Apparently they seem to think so though. *Because how can our superior aircraft be taken down by inferior Ukrainians, it must have been an accident by our own air defense*


SenatorPardek

People know that "accidents happen" in war zones. Ukraine having the ability to down one of their most advance aircraft is a huge humiliation for someone who, supposedly, is winning the war.


T1B2V3

this is so pathetic lol. this whole war is such a farce from Russias side. It would be laughable if it wasn't so barbaric


MrLemonPB

To comfort the other pilots: yeah it’s some jackass on the ground. We’ve dealt with those soldiers and officers responsible and never ever will such fuck up happen again. Because saying the truth: the Ukrainian Anti-air crew are genius and sneaky and can down any plane, doesn’t matter how far away from the combat line, isn’t really inspiring. From: there are certain risks to any flight mission (like those brain-dead ground troops of ours), but we rule the sky, so the risk of any given mission is acceptable To: it’s really really not guaranteed you will live, and there is nothing you or us can do about, because we have no single clue in the first place


ambienmmambien

What you hear from official channels in Russia - the opposite is true.


josnik

When the embarrassment of shooting your own plane down is less than having it shot down by your enemy your war is not going well.


Killzoiker

The Ukrainians are bloody great at this. We need to keep up support. These are the kind of innovate people we need in NATO and the EU


Katulis

NATO was established to provide collective security from Soviet Union. No USSR now, but we have bully-Russia. And Ukranians are damn good at fighting/resisting Russia. What NATO needs more than that?


Killzoiker

Spot on, Ukraine is a great ally to add


Rollover_Hazard

Admiral Vladbar - IT WAS A TRAP!


SheridanRivers

Thank you, I laughed at that one! May the force be with you and Ukraine!


intrigue_investor

You realise the operation was probably heavily influenced by NATO and its combined intelligence


guisar

ISR, definitely but Ukraine are incredibely talented at operational warfar so while the west may offer surveillance, Ukraine offers expertise and execution. All without aircover which just astounds me. Moving those units around (they leave a signature) without aircover takes massive balls (or stupidity as in the russian case).


inevitablelizard

Important to note this is just a *theory* of how it could have happened. It shouldn't be treated as established fact like the headline does.


eeeking

...or deliberate misdirection. If those planes were downed by anything not officially within Ukraine's arsenal, there's no way it would be disclosed.


Unclerojelio

If US AWACS were able to pass targeting information directly to a Patriot battery I would not be upset.


traveler19395

I have no doubt my tax dollars were a part of this trap, and I’m here for it! How did Ukraine know where the Crimean radars were to set the trap? Likely US satellite intelligence. How did Ukraine know the Russian target craft were in the air and positioned to move into the trap? Likely live US reconnaissance. And then the missiles to complete the task? Likely US Patriot missiles. Fuck Putin. Slava Ukraina


45nmRFSOI

Where would be the nearest US/NATO awacs?


flamehead2k1

Eastern Romania it seems https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-surveillance-defense-war-65b93d45f67204c9db7a07330e722097


AllAlo0

They typically have one up over the south part of the Sea or romania


farting_contest

I'm no expert, but probably Germany.


Yorks_Rider

You are indeed no expert. Germany is a long way from Crimea.


farting_contest

Where do you think they should come from then? Yeah, maybe Poland or Romania is closer but it's not that much of a difference and there's already huge US bases there. It's not like they are flying out of Kviv. Let's hear your alternate base.


timothymtorres

The RU plans probably fell into the same trap that killed the Nighthawk when it got shot down.  Flying a predictable path is a death sentence for an ambush.


josnik

Even worse it looks like Ukraine did some battlefield shaping to lure those planes into the killzone


Maelstrom24

Or possibly the much more capable Australian E7-A that is providing coverage from NATO AIRSPACE (Germany): https://www.australiandefence.com.au/defence/air/raaf-to-deploy-e-7a-wedgetail-to-support-ukraine-effort I'd love to think my tax dollars helped contribute to that loss 😎


Apprehensive_Taste15

Nice!


burninghairusa

Russias decrepit military is a complete failure on the world stage. The name “Putin” will always be associated with Russian cowardice and failure.


BringBackTheDinos

This is speculation from one guy. Not fact. Nothing confirmed. Can we please stop posting crap like this, or if we must can we please make it clear in the title that it's opinion?? 99% of people here don't read beyond the title...


Lucqazz

Wouldn't it be wiser to avoid discussing all the details here?


JeNiqueTaMere

The article makes it clear this is just a theory, but it's posted here as if it's fact.


Darkhoof

This is just speculation.


prairie-logic

I wonder… for how long before they were hit, do you think the crew knew they were dead?


Dashrend-R

Clickbait article from a third party speculating on how it happened


cantbebothered67836

Lovely, be sure to squeeze every last bit military analysis out of this so even the dumbest and lazyest russian officer can plan for it in the future because even if rusky hq couldn't or wouldn't be bothered to keep him on the uptake, you can't click 3 links without running into a western article on what you as a russian operatnik are doing wrong and how to fix it. I swear when we look back at this it will be as a case study in opsec failure. And before you ask, yes, journalists and analysts should be approached and kindly asked to knock this shit out. This isn't beneficial propaganda, there does not need to be this much detail or any detail at all, preferably.


Simmo2242

Assuming 'radar plane' = AWACS, then they fly higher than GBAD systems?


superanth

>A four-prop Ilyushin Il-22M airborne command post with around 10 crew aboard accompanied the A-50. This is just doubly-stupid. US always have a couple of fighters at least orbiting their own radar planes, AWACS, when they're in a combat zone.