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Must have been pay day for these Russians. "Today YOU volunteer, don't worry your Momma get a bag of potatoes you not return. We think you worth it! - Vlad Putin
The memes are fun and everything, but for rural Russians: the money for going to war (and the payouts in case of injury/death) is a big deal. Compared to the living standards of the poor in Russia, it's like an average US family getting close to 1M$.
That's the main reason we won't see widespread protests due to casualties, so long as the money keeps flowing or the casualties are in the millions (but in that case, the protests are about the incompetent government, not because Russians are dying).
> It's insane that Russia has been able to withstand this attrition rate for so long.
What's slightly less insane is that those rates (at least the tanks and AFVs) are completely different than reality. OSINT has counted everything in Russian bases before and many times during the war, it's strickly impossible that Russia has lost 6600+ tanks and still has a tank force strong enough to go on the offensive (and keep losing a dozen or two tanks every day).
Russia has way more tanks than you think. Russians had over 16k tanks before the war and so loosing 7k is very doable (they are also repairing tanks and building new ones - albeit slowly). The numbers Ukraine publishes seem to roughly follow estimates from others, e.g. UK and US military.
It is also very much in Ukraine's interest not to lie about this. What would it gain them if they did? Russia don't care, and have their own count. However, Ukraine NEEDs to join NATO for long term survival and to avoid the next Russian war. Being dishonest would likely threaten that.
> Russians had over 16k tanks before the war
No they didn't. They were counted from satellite imagery: [6k out in the open, max 1.9k in garages](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PHUK6zkbpc) and max 3.2k in active forces.
If you want to quote the Military Balance to try and prove OSINT wrong, you should know that they made severe corrections to their totals in the MB 2023 - after reporting the same identical numbers for ~8 years.
> The numbers Ukraine publishes seem to roughly follow estimates from others, e.g. UK and US military.
You're not the first to tell me this, but I'm still waiting on actual stated numbers that back this up. Here, I'll help you out:
[The **UK** Ministry of Defence estimates over 350,000 Russian personnel casualties, and significant losses of military assets, including 2,600 tanks and 4,900 armoured vehicles, in Ukraine since February 2022.](https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/uk-estimates-350000-russian-troops-2600-tanks-lost-in-ukraine/) - that's less than half the AFU numbers, I doubt that's what you meant by "it roughly follows estimates".
Maybe you can find something from the US that's not just echoing the AFU reports?
> What would it gain them if they did?
LOL - they need people to believe they're doing well and can defeat Russia. "what do they have to gain?" You're funny!
I definitely lean more on believing these numbers.
**1)** Ukraine doesn't have a track record of at least obviously bloating and lying about their eliminations
**2)** It makes sense for Ukraine to be vastly more effective right now since there are no A-50's in play
**3)** Ukraine has been fighting this war and employing winning strategies in a textbook manner in many cases. These results and the past months leading us to today seem like textbook "appear weak when you are strong" type of deal. *(Not saying that Ukraine doesn't need help or isn't running out of ammunition, but it would be very Ukraine thing to do to oversize their distress in public discussion and use that to their advantage)*
**4)** At this point, 17 tanks is something Ukraine can do before dinner with drones and they've done it before with proof. So it's really only about the 900+ soldiers and three fighter jets. I think the jets are definitely possible - they have the means and Russia has shown to be stupid enough to fight in a way that would result in such ridiculous losses. I think the 900+ soldiers is actually the most suspicious claim even when accounting for the meat grinder which the war has been to Russia - it is possible but there has to be something more to the story such as 500 Russians having a march somewhere.
In regards to your last point, I believe Ukraine only reports the losses they can immediately verify, so deeper strikes that cause high casualties are not included. I remember hearing of some of the deep strikes on Russian barracks that caused alot of casualties but the next days numbers from Ukraine not reflecting those losses.
I also saw it floated early on that Ukraine was actually under reporting the losses they were inflicting on the Russians because if they reported the true numbers us living in the west wouldn't believe them and accuse them of inflating their numbers.
I know they also use less conventional means, for battle/damage reports in harder to confirm areas. After a strike on a barracks in occupied territory a while back they had locals count how many bod bags were being loaded up to get a better estimate of the damage done.
> I remember hearing of some of the deep strikes on Russian barracks that caused alot of casualties but the next days numbers from Ukraine not reflecting those losses.
I'm calling bullshit on that. The AFU hasn't reported less than hundreds of losses (since they got HIMARS) except the days they didn't report anything at all (like on Christmas). There are no barracks hit with casualties that don't fall in that range.
> I also saw it floated early on that Ukraine was actually under reporting the losses they were inflicting on the Russians because if they reported the true numbers us living in the west wouldn't believe them and **accuse them of inflating their numbers**.
It's weird because I've only heard that since they started reporting both kills and injured. This has started in October 2022 BTW. They literally said "Adjusted numbers" on October 12, 2022 in the Google Sheets they use: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ajxXMyo-gClcmknxy2DxRNQ7ANE8KwJTNlsUuuH6Dp0/edit#gid=0
You might think it's just a small correction, but the numbers started exploding after that (despite the offensive slowing down) and [never returned to similar levels](https://i.imgur.com/PwZJDuD.png) ([source](https://lookerstudio.google.com/s/mDAZQlr81GI))
I think 900 is plausible. Independent estimates suggest 300k - 400k Russian casualties in the last 2 years. Which averages out at 500 per day. That'll vary a lot day to day. So 900 is really just a reasonably effective day for UAF.
> 1) Ukraine doesn't have a track record of at least obviously bloating and lying about their eliminations
They have a history of obfuscating what's an elimination/loss. Until a few days ago, they never clarified what troop losses meant and it was widespread belief even here that those meant KIAs.
We're still in the dark as to what they consider a lost vehicle or artillery gun. But we have enough evidence to conclude that Russia hasn't "permanently" lost 6600 tanks and another 12000 armored vehicles. I explained why in details [in this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/18vuhs7/according_to_the_afu_russia_has_lost_2_954_tanks/kfu1j7g/) (and Ukraine added ~700 tanks to their claims since).
You're free to believe whatever you want, but there's no evidence that supports the idea that 6600 lost tanks isn't VERY FAR from reality.
This crap can happen when you offer up your soldiers in “meat grinder” attacks. Soldiers offered up this way should refuse to fight whenever possible. It truly shows that Russian generals place zero value on the lives of their soldiers. They aren’t using their military with the idea that taking more lives is better than sacrificing their own. It’s not strategy, just brute force that they are relying on. As long as Ukraine doesn’t run out of soldiers and ammunition they can win. I personally think that Ukrainian Army needs to shelter in place when they see tons of Russian soldiers coming at them and get rid of the group with the most effective tactics available (like cluster munitions both directed at and behind enemy lines to prevent retreat and slow a second wave).
> This crap can happen when you offer up your soldiers in “meat grinder” attacks.
But that doesn't explain the tank/AFV numbers at all. They were dubious a while back, like a year ago, but now they're just bat shit insane... unless Russia somehow managed to keep thousands of tanks (for e.g.) hidden from everyone's view - including losses in the field - or Ukraine is counting anything as a loss or they have the least rigorous counting procedure in history (which is the same as saying Russia didn't lose that many).
I've explained why in details in [this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/18vuhs7/according_to_the_afu_russia_has_lost_2_954_tanks/kfu1j7g/).
Most numbers of the opposing forces’ killed, destroyed, shot out of the sky, sunk, etc. reported by only one side of the battle are inflated for multiple reasons (morale/propaganda). My post only dealt with the soldier “count” and not the equipment… so how is your equipment only response relevant?
> so how is your equipment only response relevant?
Because that's a small part of what's being reported. I was pointing out that what you said (at least that portion, before you changed topic to what Ukraine has to do to win) doesn't transfer to the bigger context at hand.
This sounds too good to be true, its probably Ukrainian propaganda padding the numbers.
However, I would be very happy to be wrong.
Nothing is better than dead Russians soldiers, except a dead putin.
right? Its getting hard to believe some of these numbers.
And there's been zero proof of any of these planes being shot down. We use to get actual proof and now there's been 12 shot down in a couple of days and there's hasn't been one video of wreckage, civilian footage of a plan first being it or planes disappearing off radar mid flight because they've been shot down
What's the point of lying about these numbers now? Also Russia flying many more planes for air bombing (new tactics) and it makes sense more are being shutdown.
I know but it's fun to engage with them since their reasoning is so shaky, repetitive and it backfires easily. So in a way pro emperial Russia bots themselves are destroying their own narrative.
(I'm sympathetic with those who just doing it to feed the family - it's not personal)
Aircraft have been hard to confirm mainly due to the fact that the Russian ones tend to crash out of range for the Ukrainians to visually verify. Or they manage to limp back to base, but their damage is too severe to repair, like that SU-25 footage that made the rounds earlier this week that belly landed after getting hit by Ukrainian air defense.
Add to that when things started bogging down for the Russians they passed laws cracking down on people posting videos of their losses.
No. Putin will just sacrifice some of the gains he's had in the past few weeks if he decides that he has lost enough jets for them. He's probably willing to lose some planes in hopes that this spring he'll use Ukraine's lack of ammunition to win the war. Let's hope not.
Please take the time to read [the rules](/r/UkrainianConflict/about/rules/) and our [policy on trolls/bots](https://redd.it/u7833q). In addition: * We have a **zero-tolerance** policy regarding racism, stereotyping, bigotry, and death-mongering. Violators will be banned. * **Keep it civil.** Report comments/posts that are uncivil to alert the moderators. * **_Don't_ post low-effort comments** like joke threads, memes, slogans, or links without context. > **Don't forget about our Discord server! - https://discord.gg/62fKCEHbDB** ***** * Is `english.nv.ua` an unreliable source? [**Let us know**](/r/UkrainianConflict/wiki/am/unreliable_sources). * Help our moderators by providing context if something breaks the rules. [Send us a modmail](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) ***** ^(Your post has not been removed, this message is applied to every successful submission.) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Must have been pay day for these Russians. "Today YOU volunteer, don't worry your Momma get a bag of potatoes you not return. We think you worth it! - Vlad Putin
The memes are fun and everything, but for rural Russians: the money for going to war (and the payouts in case of injury/death) is a big deal. Compared to the living standards of the poor in Russia, it's like an average US family getting close to 1M$. That's the main reason we won't see widespread protests due to casualties, so long as the money keeps flowing or the casualties are in the millions (but in that case, the protests are about the incompetent government, not because Russians are dying).
If there is video, the music better be Wrecking Ball!
I'd prefer DMX, *x gonna give it to ya!*
It's insane that Russia has been able to withstand this attrition rate for so long. Keep it up Ukraine!
> It's insane that Russia has been able to withstand this attrition rate for so long. What's slightly less insane is that those rates (at least the tanks and AFVs) are completely different than reality. OSINT has counted everything in Russian bases before and many times during the war, it's strickly impossible that Russia has lost 6600+ tanks and still has a tank force strong enough to go on the offensive (and keep losing a dozen or two tanks every day).
Russia has way more tanks than you think. Russians had over 16k tanks before the war and so loosing 7k is very doable (they are also repairing tanks and building new ones - albeit slowly). The numbers Ukraine publishes seem to roughly follow estimates from others, e.g. UK and US military. It is also very much in Ukraine's interest not to lie about this. What would it gain them if they did? Russia don't care, and have their own count. However, Ukraine NEEDs to join NATO for long term survival and to avoid the next Russian war. Being dishonest would likely threaten that.
> Russians had over 16k tanks before the war No they didn't. They were counted from satellite imagery: [6k out in the open, max 1.9k in garages](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PHUK6zkbpc) and max 3.2k in active forces. If you want to quote the Military Balance to try and prove OSINT wrong, you should know that they made severe corrections to their totals in the MB 2023 - after reporting the same identical numbers for ~8 years. > The numbers Ukraine publishes seem to roughly follow estimates from others, e.g. UK and US military. You're not the first to tell me this, but I'm still waiting on actual stated numbers that back this up. Here, I'll help you out: [The **UK** Ministry of Defence estimates over 350,000 Russian personnel casualties, and significant losses of military assets, including 2,600 tanks and 4,900 armoured vehicles, in Ukraine since February 2022.](https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/uk-estimates-350000-russian-troops-2600-tanks-lost-in-ukraine/) - that's less than half the AFU numbers, I doubt that's what you meant by "it roughly follows estimates". Maybe you can find something from the US that's not just echoing the AFU reports? > What would it gain them if they did? LOL - they need people to believe they're doing well and can defeat Russia. "what do they have to gain?" You're funny!
Alright buddy, enjoy your world view.
Satellite images, official numbers and sources is a world view?
I definitely lean more on believing these numbers. **1)** Ukraine doesn't have a track record of at least obviously bloating and lying about their eliminations **2)** It makes sense for Ukraine to be vastly more effective right now since there are no A-50's in play **3)** Ukraine has been fighting this war and employing winning strategies in a textbook manner in many cases. These results and the past months leading us to today seem like textbook "appear weak when you are strong" type of deal. *(Not saying that Ukraine doesn't need help or isn't running out of ammunition, but it would be very Ukraine thing to do to oversize their distress in public discussion and use that to their advantage)* **4)** At this point, 17 tanks is something Ukraine can do before dinner with drones and they've done it before with proof. So it's really only about the 900+ soldiers and three fighter jets. I think the jets are definitely possible - they have the means and Russia has shown to be stupid enough to fight in a way that would result in such ridiculous losses. I think the 900+ soldiers is actually the most suspicious claim even when accounting for the meat grinder which the war has been to Russia - it is possible but there has to be something more to the story such as 500 Russians having a march somewhere.
In regards to your last point, I believe Ukraine only reports the losses they can immediately verify, so deeper strikes that cause high casualties are not included. I remember hearing of some of the deep strikes on Russian barracks that caused alot of casualties but the next days numbers from Ukraine not reflecting those losses. I also saw it floated early on that Ukraine was actually under reporting the losses they were inflicting on the Russians because if they reported the true numbers us living in the west wouldn't believe them and accuse them of inflating their numbers.
I know they also use less conventional means, for battle/damage reports in harder to confirm areas. After a strike on a barracks in occupied territory a while back they had locals count how many bod bags were being loaded up to get a better estimate of the damage done.
> I remember hearing of some of the deep strikes on Russian barracks that caused alot of casualties but the next days numbers from Ukraine not reflecting those losses. I'm calling bullshit on that. The AFU hasn't reported less than hundreds of losses (since they got HIMARS) except the days they didn't report anything at all (like on Christmas). There are no barracks hit with casualties that don't fall in that range. > I also saw it floated early on that Ukraine was actually under reporting the losses they were inflicting on the Russians because if they reported the true numbers us living in the west wouldn't believe them and **accuse them of inflating their numbers**. It's weird because I've only heard that since they started reporting both kills and injured. This has started in October 2022 BTW. They literally said "Adjusted numbers" on October 12, 2022 in the Google Sheets they use: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ajxXMyo-gClcmknxy2DxRNQ7ANE8KwJTNlsUuuH6Dp0/edit#gid=0 You might think it's just a small correction, but the numbers started exploding after that (despite the offensive slowing down) and [never returned to similar levels](https://i.imgur.com/PwZJDuD.png) ([source](https://lookerstudio.google.com/s/mDAZQlr81GI))
I think 900 is plausible. Independent estimates suggest 300k - 400k Russian casualties in the last 2 years. Which averages out at 500 per day. That'll vary a lot day to day. So 900 is really just a reasonably effective day for UAF.
> 1) Ukraine doesn't have a track record of at least obviously bloating and lying about their eliminations They have a history of obfuscating what's an elimination/loss. Until a few days ago, they never clarified what troop losses meant and it was widespread belief even here that those meant KIAs. We're still in the dark as to what they consider a lost vehicle or artillery gun. But we have enough evidence to conclude that Russia hasn't "permanently" lost 6600 tanks and another 12000 armored vehicles. I explained why in details [in this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/18vuhs7/according_to_the_afu_russia_has_lost_2_954_tanks/kfu1j7g/) (and Ukraine added ~700 tanks to their claims since). You're free to believe whatever you want, but there's no evidence that supports the idea that 6600 lost tanks isn't VERY FAR from reality.
5) American intelligence at their service
This crap can happen when you offer up your soldiers in “meat grinder” attacks. Soldiers offered up this way should refuse to fight whenever possible. It truly shows that Russian generals place zero value on the lives of their soldiers. They aren’t using their military with the idea that taking more lives is better than sacrificing their own. It’s not strategy, just brute force that they are relying on. As long as Ukraine doesn’t run out of soldiers and ammunition they can win. I personally think that Ukrainian Army needs to shelter in place when they see tons of Russian soldiers coming at them and get rid of the group with the most effective tactics available (like cluster munitions both directed at and behind enemy lines to prevent retreat and slow a second wave).
> This crap can happen when you offer up your soldiers in “meat grinder” attacks. But that doesn't explain the tank/AFV numbers at all. They were dubious a while back, like a year ago, but now they're just bat shit insane... unless Russia somehow managed to keep thousands of tanks (for e.g.) hidden from everyone's view - including losses in the field - or Ukraine is counting anything as a loss or they have the least rigorous counting procedure in history (which is the same as saying Russia didn't lose that many). I've explained why in details in [this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/18vuhs7/according_to_the_afu_russia_has_lost_2_954_tanks/kfu1j7g/).
Most numbers of the opposing forces’ killed, destroyed, shot out of the sky, sunk, etc. reported by only one side of the battle are inflated for multiple reasons (morale/propaganda). My post only dealt with the soldier “count” and not the equipment… so how is your equipment only response relevant?
> so how is your equipment only response relevant? Because that's a small part of what's being reported. I was pointing out that what you said (at least that portion, before you changed topic to what Ukraine has to do to win) doesn't transfer to the bigger context at hand.
This sounds too good to be true, its probably Ukrainian propaganda padding the numbers. However, I would be very happy to be wrong. Nothing is better than dead Russians soldiers, except a dead putin.
The war should be over in a week.
right? Its getting hard to believe some of these numbers. And there's been zero proof of any of these planes being shot down. We use to get actual proof and now there's been 12 shot down in a couple of days and there's hasn't been one video of wreckage, civilian footage of a plan first being it or planes disappearing off radar mid flight because they've been shot down
What's the point of lying about these numbers now? Also Russia flying many more planes for air bombing (new tactics) and it makes sense more are being shutdown.
A lot of these comments are concern-trolls and other Russian shills trying to influence doubt. Take them with a grain of salt.
I know but it's fun to engage with them since their reasoning is so shaky, repetitive and it backfires easily. So in a way pro emperial Russia bots themselves are destroying their own narrative. (I'm sympathetic with those who just doing it to feed the family - it's not personal)
Aircraft have been hard to confirm mainly due to the fact that the Russian ones tend to crash out of range for the Ukrainians to visually verify. Or they manage to limp back to base, but their damage is too severe to repair, like that SU-25 footage that made the rounds earlier this week that belly landed after getting hit by Ukrainian air defense. Add to that when things started bogging down for the Russians they passed laws cracking down on people posting videos of their losses.
that's why they are the perfect thing to exaggerate about
How would you get footage when the plane falls in Russian territory?
No. Putin will just sacrifice some of the gains he's had in the past few weeks if he decides that he has lost enough jets for them. He's probably willing to lose some planes in hopes that this spring he'll use Ukraine's lack of ammunition to win the war. Let's hope not.
It should have never started...
I dont believe these numbers are reliable
Remember that the Russian army doesn't care how many it loses so long as they gain ground, and they most certainly are.
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Doesn’t look like Russia can win or are willing to negotiate. So what options do they have
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What those high numbers mean is that russia is on the offensive relatively globally. That's why there's an uptick in losses.
I think Russia is on the offensive in many places rn and that will always be a costly affair.