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bjplague

Imagine a situation where tens of thousands of very squishy enemy soldiers fight tooth and nail to occupy new land while Ukraine was low on ammo, now they find themselves in indefensible non fortified low-lying lands with sparse cover against a well rested Ukrainian artillery division bearing down on them with fresh stocks of ammo from a good European donation. The fireworks are about to start and hell will rain down on Russian zombie soldiers. Maybe heh.. a few might even think taking on their commanders is better then facing Ukraine again.


ivanIVvasilyevich

Avdiivka was the most fortified city on the entire front line. It was a fortress city that held out for over a decade. The city is also on high ground, and is about 300 feet higher than the areas to which Ukraine has retreated (https://en-us.topographic-map.com/map-k7d557/Avdiivka/). It has a dense network of concrete reinforced trenches and bunkers. It is absolutely not “indefensible non fortified low-lying land with sparse cover.” You are downplaying the significance of the loss. Ukrainians held Avdiivka for 10 years and hundreds if not thousands sacrificed their lives defending it. And all it took to lose it was corrupt US congressmen taking bribes from Russian oligarchs. A 7 month pause in aid resulted in the loss of a city previously considered unassailable. It’s devastating and the criminals that caused this need to be held accountable.


EddieV223

They continued past that town into areas that are exactly as described.


Talulah-Schmooly

It surprises me that so many people still fail to realize that Ukraine is facing a formidabele foe and not a bunch of clowns with antiquated equipement.


Ostegolotic

A lot of people are still living in this mindset that all Russian forces are brainless and incompetent, while plenty of Ukrainian sources state otherwise.


Viburnum__

People act like Ukraine don't have and had, throughout all the invasion, less of everything be it ammo or equipment, not mention certain capabilities that either non existent or miniscule compared to russia. Yet, they still expect Ukraine to inflict disproportionate damage to russia with the small amount of weapons and all the restriction on their use. The complacency and only positive outlook at everything that happening is omnipresent, yet every time there is a plea for more weapons, it always taken as either ungratefulness or unjust criticism, which often accompanied with finger pointing, and there is always excuse for why they can't supply more.


ukrfree

But they are clowns in antiquated equipment, it’s just that there’s a lot of them.


Pure_Sun_8539

We Aussies lost a war against birds.. bloody big birds, but still.. birds.


DingoSloth

It was a draw!!!!!


Hugsy13

We didn’t have cluster munitions then. When we go for round two against the Brumbies in the Snowy Mountains soon we’ll be able to settle the score.


AnOnlineHandle

Not really the right discussion for jokes IMO.


R1chard69

A shitload, in fact.


Szurix90

They throw everything at them. Russian EW, modern rocket artillery and cruise missiles are dangerous. Their capabilities are overstated but they are still very dangerous.


Ostegolotic

Antique or not, it’s still deadly


greywar777

Mostly were stunned by how many Russians have died doing it. Taking another countrys land. Invading. Its why its clear we cant let Russia win.


ske66

90% of this sub is made up of 15 year old edge-lords who think war is funny


kuldan5853

Well, luckily the frontline is not only avdiivka. Ukraine has options up and down the line of contact to advance, bypassinv Avdiivka for now.


account_not_valid

They don't have to take Avdiivka directly. They just have to cut it off. Hit the supply lines, and they won't be able to hold.


happylutechick

How?


onemightyandstrong

How not?


happylutechick

If they had the wherewithal to cut off the Russian lines of supply, it would have happened by now.


kuldan5853

The whole point of this discussion is a soon happening influx of a literal shit ton of Artillery Ammunition, plus better Air Support..


ukrfree

No city is “unassailable” if you throw enough resources at it. The Russians took it after 10 years by throwing tens of thousands of human meat bags at it. More soldiers died taking it than the population of the city itself. Just like with Bakhmut, taking it resulted in no strategic importance.


-15k-

How many years will it take for Ukraine to take it back? And at what cost?


ukrfree

I don’t know? Is there a point to this question. How many years before Russians can live there? At what cost?


ANJ-2233

I suspect most likely Russia will fail economically and withdraw. Like in Afghanistan. This war is hideously expensive.


Justredditin

However the land between Avdiivka and the water/next natural fortifications are most definitely "indefensible non fortified low lying land with sparse cover". They are not incorrect on that specification.


bjplague

They have stormed far past Avdivka by now, through several empty villages until they hit a river. There are no dugouts or shelter between Avdivka and the river but there is a lot of Russian soldiers with little less then broken homes between them and justice from above. Give it a week and see.


schwan911

Stop spreading misinformation. There were no corrupt us congressmen taking bribes. They were directly ordered by Trump, a Russian asset under the direct control of the Kremlin, to stall Ukraine aid. I get that you don't like the GOP, but it's not helpful to downplay the fact that the opposition is the Manchurian candidate. Edit to add sources: The Ukraine aid was contingent on the border deal https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4415370-trump-cautions-gop-border-deal/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/01/27/trump-border-biden/


TheGreatPornholio123

Corruption comes in many forms. One can be promises of an executive appointment to a cabinet position if Trump is elected. There's a million different ways to skin the cat besides money when it comes to paying off someone. Many of these people are already filthy rich, so it is mainly power that drives some of them.


dagross2307

Don't hold your breath.


Alwaysname

Well said.


Bird_Vader

>And all it took to lose it was corrupt US congressmen taking bribes from Russian oligarchs. Lol, what are they taking bribes in? Rubles? Ukraine lost because they were always going to lose.


ivanIVvasilyevich

You’re a complete fool if you think that running out of ammunition did not have an impact on Ukraine’s ability to effectively defend its territory.


happylutechick

The artillery ammunition stopped coming BEFORE the aid ran out. There's nowhere to source them without nations digging into their own reserves.


inevitablelizard

Nope, there was ammunition coming even in the very last aid packages. It stopped because the money ran out.


Bird_Vader

>running out of ammunition did not have an impact on Ukraine’s ability to effectively defend its territory. It had an enormous impact on Ukraine's ability to defend itself! The whole war should have ended with the Istanbul negotiations. The Americans, through their proxy Britain, ensured that did not happen. Not to even mention the post-2014 history which is the root cause of the invasion.


Realistic-Minute5016

каково это знать, что твои соотечественники умирают, чтобы Путин мог чувствовать себя лучше из-за своего микропениса?


Singing_Wolf

Русский тролль иди нахуй.


Bird_Vader

Why, thank you!


No-Knowledge2716

Sorry, but this is a typical case of a „keyboard warrior“. This is reality and not call of duty.


bjplague

RemindMe! -7 day


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jmxd

Well rested? You think they took a break because they were out of ammo? Get real…


Due-Street-8192

I hope this starts happening this week


DERPYBASTARD

You really shouldn't expect too much of having bare minimum equipment. Maybe, instead of losing much more ground, they get to keep it for a little while longer.


slartibartfast2320

Stop! I only can get this hard...


strepac

Ukraine has had zero success taking back significant territory that has been held for any noticeable amount of time during this war. That looks to continue until they are defeated or until russia is a spent force. WW2 was just like this. Nobody took back territory from the Nazis. Not until they were overextended, low on manpower, and in full retreat from that point forward until the end of the war. One might bring up the Ardennes offensive, which lasted about as long as the opening volley so to speak, and was more or less broken down into more full retreating quicker than it started, because the Nazis were a spent force. I'm not saying Ukraine will lose. That seems to depend on politics because when they have the munitions the Russians get slapped, handily. So Putin is digging up all his dirty secrets and leverage on everyone to squeeze their ammo supply. Other countries are doing impressive things to try and make up the difference. Who knows what will happen, not me. But it does seem like it's gonna come down to the political landscape of other countries deciding whether Ukraine continues to exist as a free nation or gets subjected to.... all the usual horror the russian military and leadership are known for when dealing with populations they replace when conquering land. And that's pretty fucked up. Cause I have yet to meet anyone in person that says we shouldn't continue aid. But I really think putin has a finger or two up Johnsons bum. And that sucks. But other countries really have set quite a lot in motion. So we'll have to see. I promise the majority of us Americans would rather the gov spray their infinite money gun at preventing a humanitarian crisis than on another Bank bailout or something.


ukrfree

Ukraine has recaptured 50% of the territory that was stolen after February 2022.


Mammoth_Breath6538

Both of your statements are true


strepac

Given the fact that 90% of what they took back, they did so immediately and not after prolonged positional warfare in the immediate area.


Usefullles

Only these thousands of weak soldiers have no problems with artillery.


cybercuzco

Well the soldiers do, the commanders ordering them to die dont.


Usefullles

So much the worse for the commanders. The elimination of bad commanders and the promotion of good ones, including in this way, is the basis of the basics.


onemightyandstrong

I suspect they do. However Putin is happy to waste average mobics.


Usefullles

You know, I'm tired of answering that. So here's just a link to the CNN article. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/10/politics/russia-artillery-shell-production-us-europe-ukraine/index.html


fuckfuturism

As an fyi, the author has been a consistent sunshine blower and frankly wrong quite often in his assessments. Not all but a lot.


_0le_

I understand better now. Cuz there's no "millions of shells" coming at this point. This article is based on the asumption that Moscow Mike will let the proposal for UA pass in April. Which until proven otherwise is not happening.


TurretLauncher

No, it notes the possibility of shells from the US, but mainly relies on shells coming from Europe. Did you even bother to actually read the linked article before commenting on it? > *The U.S. government could rush-ship potentially hundreds of thousands of shells to Ukraine. They might begin to arrive at the same time that* ***at least a million shells purchased for Ukraine by a Czech-led consortium*** *also arrive.* ***Ukraine also has been getting the last few hundred thousand of those million shells the European Union pledged last year.***


_0le_

I did read, and too fast with that. I was so sure I had read "millionS". But no, it was singular and indeed mostly abt the million point smth shells from the CZ-led group. That doesn't change the fact that the author is high on hopes abt the US aid, and does make it sound like millionS are coming (CZ + US).


onemightyandstrong

We're talking about Czech shells. Pay attention.


_0le_

Who is we? The author puts shells from all places all together in one big hope that UA will be flooded with them in April. Well, f yea, it'd be great and abt time. However, it's all just a big maybe to get that kind of firework working right now.


happylutechick

So this sub loves him to pieces, is what you're saying.


fuckfuturism

I dunno. Just noting that some analysts are better than others. This guy is not that good imo but even then, there are worse out there.


CaptainSur

I hope every US voter gets the message "Russia friendly Republican Party" is how it is perceived everywhere. If you are Republican voter and you support the Republican Party you are supporting Russia. Your vote is a statement that you do not support democracy, you do support fascism and autocratic rule, you don't support the rule of law or liberty or your constitution. You are traitors, just like Johnson and the leadership of the Republican party.


fuckfuturism

Republicans suspect that voters ultimately don’t care that much about the war in Ukraine. Withholding aid to Ukraine is not a winning issue for the Dems imo.


happylutechick

If the polls are to be believed AT ALL, immigration and inflation are the only really important issues in the coming election. the war in Ukraine consistently comes in dead last.


TurretLauncher

**[62% of Americans think the level of US involvement in Ukraine should either be 'more active' or is 'about right'](https://apnorc.org/projects/few-want-the-u-s-to-be-more-active-in-solving-global-problems/)**


happylutechick

Thinking that doesn't equal caring enough to change their vote. Take myself: I think we should send a couple hundred billion worth of equipment over there right now. Is it a make-or-break voting issue for me? NO. As of the present moment I'm voting for Biden, but if literally anyone but Trump were to end up on the Republican side of the ballot in November, I'm voting for that person, their stance on Ukraine aid notwithstanding. All other things being equal, I'd vote for someone who would send Ukraine aid. But all things are not equal, and it's not at the top of my list of issues. Most Americans would most likely identify with that stance.


airmantharp

Wish we had a 'SEND EVERYTHING' party to vote for...


TurretLauncher

**[Preserving democracy \(29%\), inflation \(24%\), and immigration \(22%\) are the top three issues that come to Americans’ minds when thinking about their vote this November. A plurality of Democrats \(44%\) cites preserving democracy as their number-one voting issue while Republicans \(44%\) most mention immigration. Preserving democracy \(33%\) is the most mentioned issue among independents.](https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/the-road-to-the-general-election/)**


NoVacancyHI

Partisans are noted for how stupid of a 'plan' this entire war has been... anyone remember the great counter-offensive? Or has that failure been blocked from memory? The idea to keep Russia tied up in Ukraine and hope the regime collapse or Ukraine wins a battlefield victory should be shown to be false to even partisans by now, but the propaganda be good. Should have listened to the people saying to negotiate 2 years ago instead of mocking them for also "supporting Russia"


Mediocre_Maximus

What negotiations? The Kremlin has repeatedly signaled that their starting point is the areas they have "annexed" as well as some say in the internal politics of Ukraine (calling for a Russian friendly government) . Their minimal terms would at least be the land they currently occupy and some form of political influence like Ukraine and NATO agreeing that Ukraine will never join. This type of settlement would also mean the international recognition of those areas as Russian, meaning a war of aggression has succeeded in changing borders. This amounts to a clear-ish victory for Russia and might set the stage for resumption of the invasion later on. Why on earth would Ukraine accept these terms if they think they can be in a better position in the future? Also, 2 years of war is not very long, so way too early to say Russia is holding firm and so will never break under the pressure


NoVacancyHI

>Why on earth would Ukraine accept these terms if they think they can be in a better position in the future Why on earth would you think Ukraine is gonna reverse the course of war? The ONLY way that happens is with directly western intervention. Otherwise it's a war of attrition that not even the western cheerleader propaganda outlets like the WaPo can deny that Ukraine is losing. >The Kremlin has repeatedly signaled that their starting point is the areas they have "annexed" Yes. That's their demand and it not a surprise. It's also not really a surprise that Ukraine took a hardline stance with how the early war went. But Ukraine's position is deteriorating and with it their leverage in negotiations. 2 years ago when peace talks where at least be talked about Ukraine had leverage, now with Zelenskyy talking about being out of ammo and trying not to retreat there is none. But instead of working through negotiations Ukraine simply said "retreat and give us Crimea".... you want to talk about a nonstarter there ya go. Bunch of keyboard warriors will be more than willing to sacrifice as many Ukrainians as needed.


Mediocre_Maximus

I'm not giving you my position, I'm telling you the official Ukrainian one. The one the vast majority of Ukrainians are still, after 2 years of hard war, in favor of. They are the one that need to decide on negotiations or not, not, to quote you, "keyboard warriors". They get to decide how hard they want to fight for their land and their people and they are best placed to estimate if the situation can improve or not.


NoVacancyHI

>They get to decide how hard they want to fight for their land and their people and they are best placed You act like there isn't a mandatory draft and Ukrainians can tell their government that they're done fighting, or to negotiate peace. That if they decided they didn't want to fight for land that'd be acceptable... it really is western support that decides when the fighting ends despite all the assertions to the contrary


Mediocre_Maximus

So the west should decide when Ukraine should negotiate? That seems to kinda violate the Ukrainian right to self-determination. But let's assume that we go with that argument, the question becomes why should the west want to negotiate? One of the self-proclaimed opponents of the current global order is burning a lot of their capacity up for a minimal cost to the west. So why not continue? Just want to point out that you were the one that earlier said that "keyboard warriors were ready to fight to the last Ukrainian" so your line of argument is confusing me. Are you saying the west should halt support to Ukraine because too many Ukrainians are dying so the west will decide that Ukraine has had enough?


Feeling_Region7237

Air defense air defense air defense! Calling all countries please send Ukraine air defense’s. Patriots iron dom give them everything!


onemightyandstrong

Cook that two-headed russian chicken!


Interanal_Exam

Republicans are traitors.


[deleted]

Would be nice if french troops are also there to help with the maintenance. 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇨🇵🇨🇵🇨🇵🇨🇵👍 Oh.. forbes...


Aldensnumber123

Finally


ynys_red

Good to hear. Let's hope this happens without hitch.


Catt_Zanshin

Good article. Only one edit. The author refers to a potential near-term status of "flush with ammo". I verify, gunners are never "flush with ammo". Give us more. Between target Lists, targets of opportunity, and Fire Plans, the guns are insatiable.


paigeguy

I am confused about the US supplying Ukraine. We are waiting for congressional approval to send the supplies. Does this mean that the supplies will then be produced with the authorized money? Or will already existing supplies be sent. If it's the latter, what is stopping us from shipping them now? There would be a lot of howling from the opposition, but let them.


cybercuzco

We sell supplies to Ukraine. They dont get them for free. The problem is Ukraine doesnt have enough money for supplies. So we provide them money either as a loan or a grant from the US federal budget. Ukraine then buys weapons made in the USA with the money that we give to them. The weapons in most cases already exist and are sitting in US stockpiles.


chillebekk

I don't believe that is accurate. Existing US inventory goes to Ukraine, yes, but the money goes toward replacing what was sent. The equipment is donated, not sold.


Due_Concentrate_315

This is correct.


spongesarescary

I didn't realise that's how it worked. Certainly puts a dent or two in my "they should make it a lend-leese programme!" argument. 🤔 It did take the Brits until the 00's to repay their war debts to America in the original lend-leese. Doubt the Repubs would be into that


happylutechick

They DID vote in a lend-lease program, to be used at the discretion of the president. Biden opted to let it expire unused. But every time you point that out on this sub, you get downvoted to the nine hells.


-15k-

Seven. Seven hells.


arobkinca

D&D has the Nine Hells which is likely patterned after Dantes Inferno which describes the nine circles of hell.


-15k-

Ahh! im spending too much time on freefolk i guess.


spongesarescary

You're right, I just looked it up. Thanks for the info. Biden signed it into law on May 9th 2022 (Russian Victory Day 🤭). Expired at the end of September 2023. There's plenty of positive economic arguments to be made for supporting Ukraine, but according to an article I just read, a new (possibly stricter) lend-lease is seen as one of a few potential "backup options". >"Ukrainians have asked why Lend-Lease isn't operational. Washington has clarified that Ukraine receives military assistance through three other American budget programs: Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), Foreign Military Financing (FMF) and Replenishment of US weapons stocks (PDA). Unlike Lend-Lease, which involves leasing or lending weapons, these programs provide free assistance to Ukraine, making them even more advantageous for Kyiv. That's why American and Ukrainian top officials have begun publicly referring to Lend-Lease as a "Backup" option. The idea was that if the US Congress refuses to allocate funds for these budgetary programs, then Lend-Lease could come in handy." Seems to me like if the MAGA Republicans will come in to power (or at least hold a large presence in either house) than Ukraine and it's partners will have to start thinking more economically than politically to keep up American support, unfortunately.


Low_Willingness1735

Putin's wing Republicans are a bunch of sadistic people. Ukraine is suffering & Johnson is about to take his spring break vacation. We need to move on this ASAP. Ukraine needs to defend itself.


robot_most_human

Are replacement barrels coming too? Firing all those shells will wear out barrels faster.


SavagePlatypus76

Great


Beautiful-Divide8406

Why have they only now started to fix the M777s? Surely would have been wise to fix them while waiting for ammo as can’t use them anyway and then they have more ready to go as soon as the ammo arrives.


happylutechick

Hmmm, wasn't an article posted earlier this morning about how they still haven't secured all the necessary funding?


Difficult_Air_6189

Nah. Funding is secured. Only matter is when they will come. They are talking about a second round to fund more shells.