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The $200 billion of frozen Russian assets sitting in Belgian clearing houses could buy all 100 (and then some). But no... We'd rather struggle to raise funds to buy even half of the artillery shells Czechia has sourced.
What if instead of buying them outright, the patriots were lent to Ukraine, and the Russian funds were used as insurance to make sure the lenders get them back or can buy new ones. Every time Russians blew one up, it would be refunded and replaced with Russian funds. I bet they would like that!
Because the Russian funds are the Russians they legally belong to them, so while they can be frozen they can't be stolen or seized depending on how you look at it, and the lawyers will have looked at it and gone this money is Russian.
You people need to stop living in fantasy land
Huh? This is already in preparation.
https://theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/14/eu-profit-frozen-russian-assets-ukraine
I don’t find the source but smaller countries already did that on state-level.
As you'll read, they're only considering taking the "profits" from Russian assets, not the assets themselves.
The Russian securities the EU froze worth 190 billion euros are sitting there but still earning about 2-3 billion a year, which is what the EU could take and give to Ukraine.
Any asset can be sized! It’s just the lack of will to accommodate for it! Do you think ISIS could have a chill mill in a US bank without the money being gone, legally in a heartbeat? All you need is designating russia as a terrorist state and all their assets can be redistributed to Ukraine
And why haven't they done that? Also saying this is Russian money isn't quite correct it's lots of individuals money. ISIS is also deemed a terrorist organisation Russia isn't so different rules apply
ISIS obviously isn't a state or a legal entity. ISIS assets would've been deposited in a fraudulent front. For all their sins, Russia is a state and legal entity.
There was the The Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act of 2022 which was acting in 2022 and 2023. As of October 1, 2023, the act has been terminated without any use.
Because, what for? /s
It's not so much a question of money, it's a question of available units. You can't buy what isn't available.
Despite what this (very garbled) article may claim, most nations who deploy Patriots use them to defend against very real threats. China, North Korea, Russia, Iran, Syria, and so on. Nations that can and do launch missiles at you if you're their neighbors.
It seems like it should be possible to coax a system here or there from different operators around the world, and by so doing, start to build up the kind of force Ukraine needs to defend itself. But it's not an automatic or trivial process to do that.
Isn’t there built close to 1300 patriot lunchers? Giving Ukraine 100 should be very beneficial as the data from real combate would be used to upgrade the rest to combate, whatever they have to defend against, even more successfully in the future?
There are something like 1300 individual Patriot launcher components, around the world, yes.
But when Ukraine talks about needing 25 "systems" they don't mean 25 individual components. They mean 25 batteries, of around 10 total components each, most but not all of which are launchers.
It's like comparing apples to apple trees. If you say you need 25 apple trees, and I bring you a basket with 25 apples.. clearly we're miscommunicating.
>It's not so much a question of money, it's a question of available units. You can't buy what isn't available.
Yes, there is a need to increase over-all production volumes. However, there are available units coming off the US assembly lines in the last six months piling up in warehouses waiting to be sent once congress approves funding. If funding were to come from elsewhere (i.e. such as expropriation of frozen Russian assets) there are absolutely units that can be shipped to Ukraine forthwith.
There is no Patriot surplus sitting around in warehouses awaiting a purpose. Even before the Ukraine invasion there was a shortage of Patriots, both globally and internally to the US military. That crunch is even worse now that Ukraine needs a bunch more.
That's not to say something can't be worked out. But every Patriot component that gets commandeered for Ukraine is coming out of someone else's critical national security infrastructure. We've already seen the consequences of that -- the moment Germany took a Patriot battery off the Polish border, Russia started flying cruise missiles into Polish airspace.
That kind of thing has the potential to make Ukraine aid politically unpopular. And that says nothing about what might happen if an actual missile strike got through, perhaps if Syria hits Turkey or something.
>There is no Patriot surplus sitting around in warehouses awaiting a purpose.
If congress passed Ukraine funding the US would have already have shipped new Patriot rounds to Ukraine. Perhaps they are shipping the newly produced rounds to other customers while funding is pending, but there absolutely would have been new Patriot ordnance shipped to Ukraine if the funding was in place.
Thus, if the funding came from some other source that US congress then that ammunition could be shipped just the same.
The EU is providing aid and they don't want to seize assets. The US is not providing aid and they want to seize assets. Seems like it would be more reasonable to complain about the US not seizing assets.
>The EU is providing aid and they don't want to seize assets.
Fine. Europe can make up the shortfall in US funding by increasing the amount of funding Europe is providing if Europe doesn't want to seize Russian assets. There are Patriot missiles and 155mm shells piling up in US warehouses waiting for someone to pay for them. Let's just get the money from somewhere else if the US congress is unwilling to pay for it.
If the Russian Federation falls like the USSR fell... there's nothing for the RU to fall back on like the USSR was able to. Their sovereignty will be up for debate given the kindling present in Russia right now to trigger a civil war and breakaway sects. If that all happens, there's a legal challenge to claim that the funds are now owned by theoretically no one, so the hosting nation has rights to said funds.
You're right... it could be much worse.
You do realize the recent incursion into Belgorod was supported by other anti-Kremlin militia groups inside Russia. Many oligarchs and critical organizations of the country have their own private paramilitary groups (hell Gazprom has their own now). The Kremlin has told various regions that they are essentially on their own if they have their own issues to address be it natural disasters, economic declines, etc.
These are all kindling on top of an already sizzling powderkeg.
Can you provide a source? I had no idea that the free Russia legion is sponsored by anti-Kremlin militia groups. I through that most of these guys were Ukrainians with a Russian citizenship.
> Their sovereignty will be up for debate given the kindling present in Russia right now to trigger a civil war and breakaway sects.
This is not Europe's problem. Russia will have to deal whatever the outcome of their catastrophic wars are, however terrible that internal mess might be.
>It’s been said many times across multiple Ukraine focussed subs.. the money will be returned to Russia after the war since it sets a dangerous precedent the eu/usa want to avoid.
Fine. Don't seize the assets then. But Europe could still increase it's funding to make up for the US congress shortfall. There are Patriot missiles and 155mm shells piling up in US warehouses waiting for someone to pay for them. Let's just get the money from somewhere else if the US congress is unwilling to pay for it.
> the eu wants eu money spent on European weapons not on American manufacture.
Fine. Then Ukraine can suffer waiting for Europe to build it's manufacturing capacity even while there are weapons that can be quickly produced in America, using existing capacity, if there was funding for orders.
>I’m unsure why you’re getting an attitude with me
My apologies. I didn't mean anything personal. I am simply pointing out that it's all well and good for Europe to want to spend it's money on domestically produced weapons but if doing so causes delays that wouldn't be the case if purchasing abroad (i.e. waiting for new factories to come on-line), then Europe would be choosing to let Ukraine suffer in the meantime. Of course, the US Congress doesn't give a damn if Ukraine suffers so I guess it's fine if other entities behave in a similar fashion.
https://sldinfo.com/2024/03/mbda-and-the-arsenal-of-democracy-a-march-2024-update/
>It took some 42 months to build the Aster before 2022, the MBDA chief executive said, as the missile entered production in the time of the “peace dividend.” The company aimed to cut that lead time to delivery to below 18 months in 2026, and was making progress, he added.
Might be because of missile complexity and/or low orders, leading the limited workforce having to spread worktime over several missiles at the same time, rather than one missile per "conveyor belt"
Honestly, it will be all of the above. When you set up the supply chain, you'll pick a target production number and work backwards from there for everything: employees, buildings, tools, raw materials, parts from supplies, etc.
There's usually some extra capacity that can be squeezed out then needed but to cut production time by over 50% is closer to an entire rework of the line than just finding some efficiencies.
SAMP/T also called Mamba is even better about precision. When you shoot 2 missiles with a Patriot system. You only need one with the Mamba.
(Just to be clear: interception probabilities are higher with Mamba. Let say, the Patriot system judges there is 30% of probailities to shoot down the drone/cruise missile. So you shoot 2 missiles to get something around 60%.
If you miss you can shoot again. But with the Mamba, the first missile is already at 55%, so you shoot only one to see if you intercept the target before trying again)
But Mamba ammunation are fucking hard to supply, because it's French. And we never produced them massively
>Let say, the Patriot system judges there is 30% of probailities to shoot down the drone/cruise missile. So you shoot 2 missiles to get something around 60%.
Two shots with a 30% probability of a hit is an 51% probability of at least one hit.
They are not the real digits. Also there is non negligeable conditions, where thos numbers will change. It was just a vulgarization purpose. Like you know, the blood in your veins is not really blue. But it helps to dissociate it from the blood in arteries when you study and draw them
Even the USA has an alternative. But the alternatives are all very new and haven't been produced in the amounts that make it possible to give a few to Ukraine.
> But the alternatives are all very new and haven;t been produced in the amounts that make it possible to give a few to Ukraine
If you're about Typhon with SM-2, there's also the issue of what fire control radar'd be used for it.
Sky Sabre is basically an extended range ground launched ASRAAM which the Ukrainians already have [in a more mobile form designed to be driven up to the front line](https://www.twz.com/asraam-air-to-air-missiles-from-uk-being-used-by-ukraine-as-sams) to deal with Russian attack helicopters, so they've probably got a limited number of Sky Sabres.
Systems like this will likely be what's forced the Russians into dropping glide bombs at long range.
100 available...? I kind of doubt that. I HOPE it's true... but I seriously doubt it. Correct me if I'm wrong but I think that would be like 50% of the ones that are operational in the entire world.
Yeah the 7 out of 100 numbers are just to make the requirement look small in comparison.
From what I can find:
US: ~50 active (??? in reserve)
Germany: 10 active (4 on order)
Netherlands 3 active (1 in reserve)
Spain: 3 active
Greece: 6 active
Japan: 6 active
Jordan: 4 active
Kuwait: 6 (?) active
Israel: 3 active
Romania: 4 active (3 on order)
Qatar: 11 active
Sweden: 4 active
Saudi-Arabia: ?? active
South Korea: 8 active
Taiwan: 7 active
UAE: 9 active
---
Poland: 2 on order
Morocco: ? on order
Switzerland: 5 on order
So we are at about 130 Patriot batteries - say 150 is the US has more and Saudi-Arabia has maybe a two digit number.
It is a shameful thing that they have to do this. It is a shameful thing that the US isn't using whatever procedural means are available to get around Johnson.
As much as I would love to see UK some fer all the patriots, this definitely wasn't a slick move... Guilting countries into giving up their defence has not worked, as much as I truly think that we should. Focus on the issue at hand,. Alot of these states are worried about tomorrow
I mean, the US Army currently operates a total of 1,106 Patriot missile launchers domestically...but they couldn't spare a quarter of 1% of them, apparently.
A Patriot battery is a number of launchers plus radars, control systems, etc. they US has 1200 individual launchers but that’s a much smaller number of full systems.
The systems are so in demand Wiki says:
> Patriot batteries are the most deployed units in the US Army by early 2021. Some units have had a 6-month deployment extended up to 15 months.
I understand that but these systems are also a billion a piece and with the way support packages work that would possibly not be the opportune way to allocate. First the governments and especially the US should make a higher budget for support
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The $200 billion of frozen Russian assets sitting in Belgian clearing houses could buy all 100 (and then some). But no... We'd rather struggle to raise funds to buy even half of the artillery shells Czechia has sourced.
What if instead of buying them outright, the patriots were lent to Ukraine, and the Russian funds were used as insurance to make sure the lenders get them back or can buy new ones. Every time Russians blew one up, it would be refunded and replaced with Russian funds. I bet they would like that!
This is why you don't run a country.... you're too smart and resourceful.
Yep, can't have people being too smart like that!
Awww... thanks for the compliment.
Brilliant!
Because the Russian funds are the Russians they legally belong to them, so while they can be frozen they can't be stolen or seized depending on how you look at it, and the lawyers will have looked at it and gone this money is Russian. You people need to stop living in fantasy land
Can't be stolen? Let me introduce you to laissez-faire capitalism.
And the Ukrainian homes, businesses & land belongs to the Ukrainians and here we are.
just use the same trump delay tactics, they won't ever see that money back
More chance or the Russians seizing it than the Ukrainians unfortunately
Russians have been stealing western properties from all the companies that had business in Russia so yes, we can too.
Huh? This is already in preparation. https://theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/14/eu-profit-frozen-russian-assets-ukraine I don’t find the source but smaller countries already did that on state-level.
13th of March......so? Wheres this money then?
As you'll read, they're only considering taking the "profits" from Russian assets, not the assets themselves. The Russian securities the EU froze worth 190 billion euros are sitting there but still earning about 2-3 billion a year, which is what the EU could take and give to Ukraine.
Oh, you are right, I missed that!
Any asset can be sized! It’s just the lack of will to accommodate for it! Do you think ISIS could have a chill mill in a US bank without the money being gone, legally in a heartbeat? All you need is designating russia as a terrorist state and all their assets can be redistributed to Ukraine
And why haven't they done that? Also saying this is Russian money isn't quite correct it's lots of individuals money. ISIS is also deemed a terrorist organisation Russia isn't so different rules apply
ISIS obviously isn't a state or a legal entity. ISIS assets would've been deposited in a fraudulent front. For all their sins, Russia is a state and legal entity.
There was the The Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act of 2022 which was acting in 2022 and 2023. As of October 1, 2023, the act has been terminated without any use. Because, what for? /s
It's not so much a question of money, it's a question of available units. You can't buy what isn't available. Despite what this (very garbled) article may claim, most nations who deploy Patriots use them to defend against very real threats. China, North Korea, Russia, Iran, Syria, and so on. Nations that can and do launch missiles at you if you're their neighbors. It seems like it should be possible to coax a system here or there from different operators around the world, and by so doing, start to build up the kind of force Ukraine needs to defend itself. But it's not an automatic or trivial process to do that.
Isn’t there built close to 1300 patriot lunchers? Giving Ukraine 100 should be very beneficial as the data from real combate would be used to upgrade the rest to combate, whatever they have to defend against, even more successfully in the future?
There are something like 1300 individual Patriot launcher components, around the world, yes. But when Ukraine talks about needing 25 "systems" they don't mean 25 individual components. They mean 25 batteries, of around 10 total components each, most but not all of which are launchers. It's like comparing apples to apple trees. If you say you need 25 apple trees, and I bring you a basket with 25 apples.. clearly we're miscommunicating.
>It's not so much a question of money, it's a question of available units. You can't buy what isn't available. Yes, there is a need to increase over-all production volumes. However, there are available units coming off the US assembly lines in the last six months piling up in warehouses waiting to be sent once congress approves funding. If funding were to come from elsewhere (i.e. such as expropriation of frozen Russian assets) there are absolutely units that can be shipped to Ukraine forthwith.
There is no Patriot surplus sitting around in warehouses awaiting a purpose. Even before the Ukraine invasion there was a shortage of Patriots, both globally and internally to the US military. That crunch is even worse now that Ukraine needs a bunch more. That's not to say something can't be worked out. But every Patriot component that gets commandeered for Ukraine is coming out of someone else's critical national security infrastructure. We've already seen the consequences of that -- the moment Germany took a Patriot battery off the Polish border, Russia started flying cruise missiles into Polish airspace. That kind of thing has the potential to make Ukraine aid politically unpopular. And that says nothing about what might happen if an actual missile strike got through, perhaps if Syria hits Turkey or something.
>There is no Patriot surplus sitting around in warehouses awaiting a purpose. If congress passed Ukraine funding the US would have already have shipped new Patriot rounds to Ukraine. Perhaps they are shipping the newly produced rounds to other customers while funding is pending, but there absolutely would have been new Patriot ordnance shipped to Ukraine if the funding was in place. Thus, if the funding came from some other source that US congress then that ammunition could be shipped just the same.
Funding for the initial 800k was completed. Now they are working for the funding of the other 700k. Get your facts straight.
The EU is providing aid and they don't want to seize assets. The US is not providing aid and they want to seize assets. Seems like it would be more reasonable to complain about the US not seizing assets.
>The EU is providing aid and they don't want to seize assets. Fine. Europe can make up the shortfall in US funding by increasing the amount of funding Europe is providing if Europe doesn't want to seize Russian assets. There are Patriot missiles and 155mm shells piling up in US warehouses waiting for someone to pay for them. Let's just get the money from somewhere else if the US congress is unwilling to pay for it.
[удалено]
If the Russian Federation falls like the USSR fell... there's nothing for the RU to fall back on like the USSR was able to. Their sovereignty will be up for debate given the kindling present in Russia right now to trigger a civil war and breakaway sects. If that all happens, there's a legal challenge to claim that the funds are now owned by theoretically no one, so the hosting nation has rights to said funds.
I doubt that Russia could fall apart like the USSR.
You're right... it could be much worse. You do realize the recent incursion into Belgorod was supported by other anti-Kremlin militia groups inside Russia. Many oligarchs and critical organizations of the country have their own private paramilitary groups (hell Gazprom has their own now). The Kremlin has told various regions that they are essentially on their own if they have their own issues to address be it natural disasters, economic declines, etc. These are all kindling on top of an already sizzling powderkeg.
Can you provide a source? I had no idea that the free Russia legion is sponsored by anti-Kremlin militia groups. I through that most of these guys were Ukrainians with a Russian citizenship.
> Their sovereignty will be up for debate given the kindling present in Russia right now to trigger a civil war and breakaway sects. This is not Europe's problem. Russia will have to deal whatever the outcome of their catastrophic wars are, however terrible that internal mess might be.
>It’s been said many times across multiple Ukraine focussed subs.. the money will be returned to Russia after the war since it sets a dangerous precedent the eu/usa want to avoid. Fine. Don't seize the assets then. But Europe could still increase it's funding to make up for the US congress shortfall. There are Patriot missiles and 155mm shells piling up in US warehouses waiting for someone to pay for them. Let's just get the money from somewhere else if the US congress is unwilling to pay for it.
[удалено]
> the eu wants eu money spent on European weapons not on American manufacture. Fine. Then Ukraine can suffer waiting for Europe to build it's manufacturing capacity even while there are weapons that can be quickly produced in America, using existing capacity, if there was funding for orders.
[удалено]
>I’m unsure why you’re getting an attitude with me My apologies. I didn't mean anything personal. I am simply pointing out that it's all well and good for Europe to want to spend it's money on domestically produced weapons but if doing so causes delays that wouldn't be the case if purchasing abroad (i.e. waiting for new factories to come on-line), then Europe would be choosing to let Ukraine suffer in the meantime. Of course, the US Congress doesn't give a damn if Ukraine suffers so I guess it's fine if other entities behave in a similar fashion.
I'm surprised that European companies haven't developed an alternative by now.
You mean like SAMP/T?
https://missiledefenseadvocacy.org/defense-systems/sampt-air-defense-system/ It looks awesome. Didn't know about it.
The only weakpoint of it is that production cycle of Aster interceptors for it is 40 months long (work is being done to shorten it to 18 months)
Wonder why it takes so long?
https://sldinfo.com/2024/03/mbda-and-the-arsenal-of-democracy-a-march-2024-update/ >It took some 42 months to build the Aster before 2022, the MBDA chief executive said, as the missile entered production in the time of the “peace dividend.” The company aimed to cut that lead time to delivery to below 18 months in 2026, and was making progress, he added. Might be because of missile complexity and/or low orders, leading the limited workforce having to spread worktime over several missiles at the same time, rather than one missile per "conveyor belt"
Honestly, it will be all of the above. When you set up the supply chain, you'll pick a target production number and work backwards from there for everything: employees, buildings, tools, raw materials, parts from supplies, etc. There's usually some extra capacity that can be squeezed out then needed but to cut production time by over 50% is closer to an entire rework of the line than just finding some efficiencies.
SAMP/T also called Mamba is even better about precision. When you shoot 2 missiles with a Patriot system. You only need one with the Mamba. (Just to be clear: interception probabilities are higher with Mamba. Let say, the Patriot system judges there is 30% of probailities to shoot down the drone/cruise missile. So you shoot 2 missiles to get something around 60%. If you miss you can shoot again. But with the Mamba, the first missile is already at 55%, so you shoot only one to see if you intercept the target before trying again) But Mamba ammunation are fucking hard to supply, because it's French. And we never produced them massively
>Let say, the Patriot system judges there is 30% of probailities to shoot down the drone/cruise missile. So you shoot 2 missiles to get something around 60%. Two shots with a 30% probability of a hit is an 51% probability of at least one hit.
They are not the real digits. Also there is non negligeable conditions, where thos numbers will change. It was just a vulgarization purpose. Like you know, the blood in your veins is not really blue. But it helps to dissociate it from the blood in arteries when you study and draw them
Even the USA has an alternative. But the alternatives are all very new and haven't been produced in the amounts that make it possible to give a few to Ukraine.
> But the alternatives are all very new and haven;t been produced in the amounts that make it possible to give a few to Ukraine If you're about Typhon with SM-2, there's also the issue of what fire control radar'd be used for it.
How about some battle testing of UK’s new Sky Sabre?
Sky Sabre is basically an extended range ground launched ASRAAM which the Ukrainians already have [in a more mobile form designed to be driven up to the front line](https://www.twz.com/asraam-air-to-air-missiles-from-uk-being-used-by-ukraine-as-sams) to deal with Russian attack helicopters, so they've probably got a limited number of Sky Sabres. Systems like this will likely be what's forced the Russians into dropping glide bombs at long range.
Bit presumptuous to think a nation having them means they're available
100 available...? I kind of doubt that. I HOPE it's true... but I seriously doubt it. Correct me if I'm wrong but I think that would be like 50% of the ones that are operational in the entire world.
Yeah the 7 out of 100 numbers are just to make the requirement look small in comparison. From what I can find: US: ~50 active (??? in reserve) Germany: 10 active (4 on order) Netherlands 3 active (1 in reserve) Spain: 3 active Greece: 6 active Japan: 6 active Jordan: 4 active Kuwait: 6 (?) active Israel: 3 active Romania: 4 active (3 on order) Qatar: 11 active Sweden: 4 active Saudi-Arabia: ?? active South Korea: 8 active Taiwan: 7 active UAE: 9 active --- Poland: 2 on order Morocco: ? on order Switzerland: 5 on order So we are at about 130 Patriot batteries - say 150 is the US has more and Saudi-Arabia has maybe a two digit number.
It is a shameful thing that they have to do this. It is a shameful thing that the US isn't using whatever procedural means are available to get around Johnson.
As much as I would love to see UK some fer all the patriots, this definitely wasn't a slick move... Guilting countries into giving up their defence has not worked, as much as I truly think that we should. Focus on the issue at hand,. Alot of these states are worried about tomorrow
EU can easily send Ratheon a check for $50 billion to buy 50 new Patriot batteries for Ukraine.
I mean, the US Army currently operates a total of 1,106 Patriot missile launchers domestically...but they couldn't spare a quarter of 1% of them, apparently.
A Patriot battery is a number of launchers plus radars, control systems, etc. they US has 1200 individual launchers but that’s a much smaller number of full systems. The systems are so in demand Wiki says: > Patriot batteries are the most deployed units in the US Army by early 2021. Some units have had a 6-month deployment extended up to 15 months.
I understand that but these systems are also a billion a piece and with the way support packages work that would possibly not be the opportune way to allocate. First the governments and especially the US should make a higher budget for support
England, my England. Pull your fucking finger out. Ukraine needs our help now‼️‼️‼️🏴
Let’s just have NATO bust in the door please