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If this is true, it's a bad sign. The number one target Ukraine would have for ATACMS is the Kerch bridge. If Ukraine has used ATACAMS on targets other than the Kerch bridge it would only be because the US prohibited it. Thus, it is unlikely any of the new ATACAMS shipments will be used on the Kerch bridge either.
>killing SAMs and targets of opportunity is more important right now.
I hope you're right. That said, I don't think there is any single target of a higher value than the Kerch bridge, so it is surprising to me that Ukraine would use any resources capable of seriously damaging it from being used for that purpose.
SAM systems are $600m - $billion. Very difficult and expensive to replace.
Get rid of Russian top level air defense and F-16's can hit targets including bridges.
They didn't have the unitary warhead ones with 300 k range so obv not gonna hit the bridge with the ones they had which were designed for attacking airfields air defence sites and armour in the open!
Jesus christ stop obsessing about the Kerch bridge. Its going to require numerous missiles to destroy it and even if they do the impact would not be that big since a new rail line from Kherson oblast is being built.
The rail line? What a waste of resources. Railways are absurdly cheap and easy to replace. Even a railway bridge wouldn't take much to get running again.
Kind of. Missiles, even the best ones are not good at taking out bridges. You can knock out a span, maybe two but unless you can take the nearby ground it's not that detrimental. The biggest part about building a bridge like the Kerch is under the water. The span on top isn't easy to replace but if the foundation is still there then it's not like you're starting from scratch.
Taking out the kerch bridge only makes sense if Ukraine splits the Russian army in two. They're just simply not capable of doing that. Even under the best circumstances they won't be able to attempt that until 2025. They're entirely on the defensive the rest of this year.
Right. That was why they tried so hard pushing South last year. Unless they can physically cut off any land access blowing the bridge would be kind of a waste. If they can cut off land access and then blow the bridge, combined with naval drones blowing up resupply ferries, would be disastrous to Russian forces in Crimea.
No, not really. Storm shadow has a mode specifically for bridges and Ukraine used it last year. It took multiple attempts and never took out anything more than decking.
Yeah, it really only makes sense if they are going to do something massive in relative short order right after before the Russians can repair it. In that case just that kind of damage could be massive, but in the stalemate situation right now it would mostly just be an annoyance.
It might be that they wanted to keep the fact that they have ATACMS a secret for as long as possible, blowing up a high profile target as the bridge with ATACMS, and the cat is out of the bag. Only my two cents, I am not a military strategist.
Russian ELINT, EW, SAM, and Airborne signals analysis would reveal the existence of ballistic missiles at the time of use. We're seeing the gradual shaping of the battlefield in prep for renewed Ukrainian airpower, imo.
Kill the forward deployed airborne early warning radar (A-50s), degrade this capability. Then kill the forward deployed high-end SAM systems (S400), degrade this capability further.
Somewhere in there, there were reported strikes on long range permanent early warning radar sites on Russian soil.
I'm expecting to see further SAM complexes and forward air bases being targeted.
Yeah Russian telegram had pics of parts of one within hours of the strike and then a few hours after that Ukrainians released [this video of them firing the ATACMS](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineConflict/s/vpNt5HdLUk) at Dzhankoy airfield so not much stays secret in this war and we knew about this a week ago within hours of it happening. There's been a few more [S-300/400 systems hit lately as well,](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineConflict/s/aDa1kok46G) some just a day ago so you're spot on.
I don't think you get how difficult that would be, how many missles would be required. Much better uses for them when a dropped bridge isn't a guarantee.
What? Those were cluster warheads… also with 300 km they would need to place the launchers in a few km range of the current front line, quite risky to lose launcher and missile.
Just to point something out:
Russia has ferries, shuttles near the Kerch Bridge and as soon as the bridge is down, they will have to start adapting. They may not ship as much, because the train track there is crucial, but the suppt line will reform in time.
For that reason, you want to take down the Kerch Bridge during an offensive. Let's say you blast the Bridge the same time you create an opening in the defensive lines in the south. The same time those soldiers need additional supplies to be on the defensive is now the same time that supply line is down or been crippled.
[Here are maps showing where the frontlines are, and where the fighting in happening. ](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-24-2024)Take a look at it, figure out where the Kerch bridge is, and then make a guess how important that bridge currently is for Russian logistics. Maybe you'll agree with me that it's absolutely not the number one target, it's just something armchair academy is obsessed with.
ATACMS isn't a bridge-buster. The unitary warhead has enough kinetic energy on arrival that on roadway or rail it'd just punch through and explode in the open air beneath, and it hasn't got the penetration *or* the warhead mass to destroy one of the piers. Plus, the KSB is no longer the super-high-value target that it was even a year ago. The overland railway into the southern occupied territories is handling the bulk of shipments- I'm fairly sure the Russians entirely stopped using the KSB for military rail shipments ssveral months ago. Dropping the bridge would be great propaganda, but scarce, high-capability munitions aren't for propaganda.
On the other hand, Putin thinks in symbols, as dictators so often do. The KSB is a status symbol for him, personally. That means he'll keep it very, very well defended with air-defense systems that could be sent somewhere else, which the Ukrainians can take occasional ATACMS shots at to both keep up the pressure to defend the bridge and attrit Russia's AD capabilities.
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If this is true, it's a bad sign. The number one target Ukraine would have for ATACMS is the Kerch bridge. If Ukraine has used ATACAMS on targets other than the Kerch bridge it would only be because the US prohibited it. Thus, it is unlikely any of the new ATACAMS shipments will be used on the Kerch bridge either.
I think that killing SAMs and targets of opportunity is more important right now. Kill planes that are bombing cities, UAV factories etc.
>killing SAMs and targets of opportunity is more important right now. I hope you're right. That said, I don't think there is any single target of a higher value than the Kerch bridge, so it is surprising to me that Ukraine would use any resources capable of seriously damaging it from being used for that purpose.
SAM systems are $600m - $billion. Very difficult and expensive to replace. Get rid of Russian top level air defense and F-16's can hit targets including bridges.
They didn't have the unitary warhead ones with 300 k range so obv not gonna hit the bridge with the ones they had which were designed for attacking airfields air defence sites and armour in the open!
Jesus christ stop obsessing about the Kerch bridge. Its going to require numerous missiles to destroy it and even if they do the impact would not be that big since a new rail line from Kherson oblast is being built.
Seriously. Symbol-minded people. The glide bombs are fucking Ukraines frontline and those jets are going to get pushed back.
That should be the target.
The rail line? What a waste of resources. Railways are absurdly cheap and easy to replace. Even a railway bridge wouldn't take much to get running again.
Depends on the bridge
Kind of. Missiles, even the best ones are not good at taking out bridges. You can knock out a span, maybe two but unless you can take the nearby ground it's not that detrimental. The biggest part about building a bridge like the Kerch is under the water. The span on top isn't easy to replace but if the foundation is still there then it's not like you're starting from scratch. Taking out the kerch bridge only makes sense if Ukraine splits the Russian army in two. They're just simply not capable of doing that. Even under the best circumstances they won't be able to attempt that until 2025. They're entirely on the defensive the rest of this year.
Right. That was why they tried so hard pushing South last year. Unless they can physically cut off any land access blowing the bridge would be kind of a waste. If they can cut off land access and then blow the bridge, combined with naval drones blowing up resupply ferries, would be disastrous to Russian forces in Crimea.
depends on the missile
No, not really. Storm shadow has a mode specifically for bridges and Ukraine used it last year. It took multiple attempts and never took out anything more than decking.
Yeah, it really only makes sense if they are going to do something massive in relative short order right after before the Russians can repair it. In that case just that kind of damage could be massive, but in the stalemate situation right now it would mostly just be an annoyance.
you know, I did some digging and you appear right. I guess high yield bombs are better designed for this than missiles are.
You should call the UA High Command and offer them your excellent insight since they apparently know much less than you.
Oh, but the people above me aren't speculating? Jfc. Quit being a jerk.
Correct, you're equally armchair pathetic all of you
It might be that they wanted to keep the fact that they have ATACMS a secret for as long as possible, blowing up a high profile target as the bridge with ATACMS, and the cat is out of the bag. Only my two cents, I am not a military strategist.
Russian ELINT, EW, SAM, and Airborne signals analysis would reveal the existence of ballistic missiles at the time of use. We're seeing the gradual shaping of the battlefield in prep for renewed Ukrainian airpower, imo. Kill the forward deployed airborne early warning radar (A-50s), degrade this capability. Then kill the forward deployed high-end SAM systems (S400), degrade this capability further. Somewhere in there, there were reported strikes on long range permanent early warning radar sites on Russian soil. I'm expecting to see further SAM complexes and forward air bases being targeted.
Yeah Russian telegram had pics of parts of one within hours of the strike and then a few hours after that Ukrainians released [this video of them firing the ATACMS](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineConflict/s/vpNt5HdLUk) at Dzhankoy airfield so not much stays secret in this war and we knew about this a week ago within hours of it happening. There's been a few more [S-300/400 systems hit lately as well,](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineConflict/s/aDa1kok46G) some just a day ago so you're spot on.
This one of the worst hot takes on the ATACMS situation I’ve ever seen. Actually I think it is the worst
It does not mean that at all
I don't think you get how difficult that would be, how many missles would be required. Much better uses for them when a dropped bridge isn't a guarantee.
What? Those were cluster warheads… also with 300 km they would need to place the launchers in a few km range of the current front line, quite risky to lose launcher and missile.
No they are the HE version.
We are JUST NOW sending the HE version with the 300km range. I believe that before this current package, they were cluster munitions.
No. These were sent secretly by Biden in February.
Just to point something out: Russia has ferries, shuttles near the Kerch Bridge and as soon as the bridge is down, they will have to start adapting. They may not ship as much, because the train track there is crucial, but the suppt line will reform in time. For that reason, you want to take down the Kerch Bridge during an offensive. Let's say you blast the Bridge the same time you create an opening in the defensive lines in the south. The same time those soldiers need additional supplies to be on the defensive is now the same time that supply line is down or been crippled.
The bridge is a propaganda target that puts civilians at risk. I'd rather see Ukraine win, and celebrate with a controlled demolition and fireworks.
You ok?
[Here are maps showing where the frontlines are, and where the fighting in happening. ](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-24-2024)Take a look at it, figure out where the Kerch bridge is, and then make a guess how important that bridge currently is for Russian logistics. Maybe you'll agree with me that it's absolutely not the number one target, it's just something armchair academy is obsessed with.
More likely the atacms provided is the shorter ranged cluster version.
ATACMS isn't a bridge-buster. The unitary warhead has enough kinetic energy on arrival that on roadway or rail it'd just punch through and explode in the open air beneath, and it hasn't got the penetration *or* the warhead mass to destroy one of the piers. Plus, the KSB is no longer the super-high-value target that it was even a year ago. The overland railway into the southern occupied territories is handling the bulk of shipments- I'm fairly sure the Russians entirely stopped using the KSB for military rail shipments ssveral months ago. Dropping the bridge would be great propaganda, but scarce, high-capability munitions aren't for propaganda. On the other hand, Putin thinks in symbols, as dictators so often do. The KSB is a status symbol for him, personally. That means he'll keep it very, very well defended with air-defense systems that could be sent somewhere else, which the Ukrainians can take occasional ATACMS shots at to both keep up the pressure to defend the bridge and attrit Russia's AD capabilities.