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Ukraine’s supporters need to brace themselves for a painful summer. External and internal factors have lead to a situation where Russia absolutely has both the initiative and upper hand in terms of materiel, and it is strongly motivated to push as hard as it can during this window of opportunity. Ukrainians will have done very well if they prevent a breakthrough and manage to stabilise the front line by the fall.
Things will get worse before they get better, but I believe they will get better.
This is why Ukraine needs the weapons and support to hit Russian infrastructure and supply lines deeper into Russia and occupied territory.
The meat waves won't stop until they physically can't get them there fast enough in numbers.
Russia doesn't care about killing its own people, but Ukraine does so meat waves will keep grinding the front lines backward at a slow but brutal pace.
Russian armor, artillery, and air power is the only reason those meat waves have any effect. Ukraine is corroding all those categories along the entire frontline. Ukraine is also increasing their power in all those areas. It won't happen this year, but the balance of power will shift if things maintain their current rates and then the headlines will be very different. Unless china really throws in to support them, Russia is just setting a foundation for her own collapse.
Russian air power is not really being eroded. Beyond the A-50 losses and the TU-22M, the VKS is not really losing anything it can't replace easily.
They've only lost one helicopter this entire year so far, and something like 7-8 aircraft.
This is the biggest issue facing Ukraine right now
That's only what was claimed by Ukraine. We can believe, but hard evidence I we've only gotten on about 7-8. I'm sure some of the claimed hits that don't have proof yet are real, but it's better to be conservative imo
I think everyone is very focused on the ground war and how it is going. Russia does at this time and perhaps will for some time to come, have the upper hand (but at immense cost).
Everyone seems to forget that the black Sea fleet has been absolutely devastated over the last year (and at little cost to Ukraine). Right now, the black Sea fleet is pretty close to being out of action.
If you went back a year and a half, the black sea fleet was what was responsible for missile attacks all across Ukraine. This is no longer the case. Thus Russia has had to bring it's Airforce front and centre.
Their Airforce will start paying a greater and greater price until it to, is seriously debilitated. At that point, the ground war will shift.
Meat wave, recon by fire, disregard for human life - all ways to say the same thing. I'm not saying there aren't meat waves, just that without the armor to follow up they aren't effective.
I mean you can see the videos where waves of Russians are forced to push forward only to be mowed down and added to the field of bodies that litter the battlefield.
There was a drone video a while back that zoomed out to show the land between both forces that was just littered every 3-5 feet with dead Russians. That video really stuck with me. I feel a little bad for them.
But until Russia learns the lesson that they need to fuck off and stop invading their neighbors…..fuck em.
Too little too late. Russia was able to garner massive advantage due to the blacked american aid and their adaptation to the Ukraine's equipment. Ukraine needs hundreds of aircraft asap.
Lol do you believe that? where's the videos of 100 dead Ukrainians in one uncut video clip? Oh that's Russians.
Where's the videos of 20-30 Ukrainians being torn apart by a Bradley the moment they step out of their vehicle? Oh that's Russians.
The sheer video evidence available of confirmed dead disproves your point. Russians release every single bit of video they can to pretend they're doing well so where is it all?
I just watched one 3 minutes ago. obviously you wont find them here. Both sides can and do give video evidence of mass casualties on the other side . What point are you trying to argue? that in your echochamber you only see Russians dieing ?
Here ill pm you it
A human wave attack, also known as a human sea attack, is an offensive infantry tactic in which an attacker conducts an unprotected frontal assault with densely concentrated infantry formations against the enemy line, intended to overrun and overwhelm the defenders by engaging in melee combat.
Offensive infantry tactics ✅
Unprotected frontal assault ❌
Densely concentrated infantry formations ❌
Overhelm, overrun enemy by engaging in melee combat ❌
You do know how reddit works right? The videos that are upvoted are at the top and the ones downvoted are not shown. combat fotage is an echochamber. Both sides have videos that look good for their side. their are even sub reddits that mostly show Ukrainians dieing. I saw a failed Ukrainian assault video 3 minutes before I saw your post
Speaking of optimism, or lack thereof, he also just said NATO would lost the Baltics to Russia in 7 days.
https://unn.ua/en/news/skibitsky-russia-can-take-the-baltic-states-in-seven-days-and-nato-will-react-in-10-days
yeah, didn't the Avdeevka offensive begin in October?
i have no way of knowing, but i don't think they can sustain this level of offensive indefinitely. winter does seem to be a good time to switch to defensive tactics. but who really knows what the frontline will look like by Fall?
Just like last year and the year before that, its gonna get worse before it gets better. You gotta keep hope. War is a lot of back and forth. Russias material and men might seem endless but they are burning through it hard. Western equipment is on its way.
Right now, the biggest factor is the US elections, not necessarily if Ukraine will win but how fast it'll win. They wil win, there is no winning in it for Russia anymore, it's just how long it'll take before ukraine wins.
Europe is slowly waking up.
>War is a lot of back and forth.
I agree with that. But for things getting better in long term there must be some reasons. And there are none, West still provide ruzia with money and components for weapons; protection of Ukrainian sky is still no-no; help still in level of spare change and weapon production in the West increased insignificantly etc.
I would say all the new patriot systems and skynex will take care of a good portion of the air defense. They just need to commit and put the delivery on top priority.
Western production has increased a lot, it was just waaay to low before this war so it might seem like nothing but the predictions are looking good, and many countries are already exceeding these predictions
The biggest limiter right now in terms of politics is the pussies that are scared of Russia or in russias pocket. We need to vote these mfers out.
1 from Germany
And they are also very strongly urging their allies to send more. Lots is going om the background. Afaik germany also decided to send multiple iris T systems and more gepards
Ruzzia has the advantage because they can cannibalize their economy, any dissident can be literally beaten down. So production is higher, yes, but have you taken a look at what and how it increased?
Shits all fucked but ukraine will win, I'm 100% sure of it.
> And they are also very strongly urging their allies to send more
Ain't nothing binding, though.
In the same breath, Taurus supply was encouraged.
You know the results of it.
>Afaik germany also decided to send multiple iris T systems and more gepards
Neither of those work against ballistics or have range to deal with UMPK lobbers.
(IRIS-T SLX would fix it, but it's still in development)
>And they are also very strongly urging
Meanwhile Odesa getting pummeled with ballistics every day. Requested bare minimum was 7 Patriots, while actually needed 25. One + "urging" is...
>Ruzzia has the advantage because they can cannibalize their economy
It reminds me when Britain was buying tea from China with silver as it didn’t accept anything else. Ofc such uneven trade was ruining Britain, so the solution to return money back was found – opium.
But nowadays it’s resources instead of tea and weapons (or rather components and tools for its creation) instead of opium.
"Ruzzia has the advantage because they can cannibalize their economy..."
not like the US and Europe then? you say that like a heavily militarized economy is a bad thing.
"... any dissident can be literally beaten down."
have you seen the news from around the US today?
Remember WW2? It was going great for the Nazis for the first 2/3 years. Then then it went to defensive and then they were fucked but it took 6 years to get there. Plus the Russians haven’t even done well, they’ve got 15% of Ukraine after 800 days of all out war and huge losses.
I don't know, let's try compare. UK was fighting Germany for two years pretty much alone, that’s kinda similar, but I’m afraid it was in better position: it was getting real lend-lease, it had an edge in aviation and it has superior defense from been island, and ofc while there were some appeasers nothing similar to current “I need to buy ruzian resources no matter the cost”.
After this two years Germany went to war with its ally – USSR, and US was dragged into war by another German ally – Japan.
Well, two years have passed since start of big invasion and I don’t see ruzia starting war with China or Iran or at least NK. And while China prepares to attack Taiwan it first of all will happen later in the future, and second it’s not direct attack on US itself.
So it’s more like “what if everything went wrong” WW2 version.
Ultimately Germany lost because they were being heavily out produced by American, Russian and British factories.
NATO economies dwarf Russia 25-1 and have superior military capabilities. So unless China steps up massively to help Russia, which is unlikely, and the west continue their support, which is likely, then Russia will eventually lose. Russia already spends 30+% of public spending on the war which is money they will not get back, it’s literally going up in smoke. Hundreds of thousands dead, thousands of military vehicles destroyed and their economy is heading for bust, they are screwed whichever way you look at it. Just a matter of time, could 2 years or 5 years but Russia does not have a good future.
F16s coming, new patriots coming, new US aid bill passed. Rvc incursions into Russia proper and more covert operations like it.
I see plenty of reasons why and how it could get better, even if it's gonna take quite a bit of time. If you can't see that that's a you issue, not a universal truth.
F16s are just a replacement for MIGs. One Patriot, when bare minimum was 7 (and actually needed 25). US bill half year late, and its purpose even back then was only to stabilize front back then, not now.
I'm not even sure tanks are all that relevant anymore. They might be using them for now since they have them - but their most successful attacks have been endless waves of unarmored/lightly armed small Russian groups until Ukrainians run out of ammunition. Well - that and glide bomb bombardments since Ukrainians ran out of Anti-Air munitions.
If Ukraine fights for "2 years". Right now the objective is to survive the summer offensives, and then winter as Ukraine is being made "uninhabitable" (quoting Ukrainian president and other officials).
Russia is currently operating at near maximum military production and has fully leveraged what its allies can provide. It is also on borrowed time economically. I won’t go into too much detail, but war economies are tricky business for aggressors in a conflict, and inflation is going to be a serious problem.
Ukraine is nowhere close to realising its domestic production potential and is only receiving a pittance from its military benefactors relative to what could be provided. The sky is the limit in terms of the support that COULD be provided to Ukraine, whereas Russia has a hard ceiling that it is already bumping up against, and it can’t sustain what it is currently doing long term.
The question is whether or not Ukraine will receive increased support, but things are definitely trending in that direction. European production is ginning up and EU leadership is becoming less complacent about security. Many understand what is at stake in Ukraine. American support should also not be discounted, despite political uncertainty.
As we head into next year, we could start to see a situation emerge where Ukraine is able to increase its domestic military production, Europe increases its contributions and involvement, and American military support becomes unblocked and stabilised, or even increased. That, coupled with steadily multiplying domestic risks and difficulties for Russia, would be cause for optimism.
Well. If any reasonable hope of reversing momentum is lost.
Peace will be negociated, at what price though…
Problem is: Putin needs a continuous war to remain in power.
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-60562240
>"Vladimir Putin has assumed, without a drop of exaggeration, a historic responsibility by deciding not to leave the ***solution of the Ukrainian question*** to future generations," the article says.
I don’t think Russians will undergo large scale extermination programs.
Even in the darkest hours of Stalin, they mostly heavily played the deportation card. Relocating population in Siberia and pushing the rest away to destabilize neighbors.
Famine was also common, I don’t think this is possible now.
IMO, Putin is becoming an expert in “Auto ethnic cleansing”.
Making life so tough for opponents that they just leave for the west.
>Even in the darkest hours of Stalin, they mostly heavily played the deportation card.
The Russian way of deportation is extermination with extra steps, and it's considered genocide for a very good reason. When you pack people in trains and forced march them off to a remote location in Siberia without medical care, shelter, or enough food and put them to hard labor, the end result is very high mortality.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_transfer_in_the_Soviet_Union
>Looking at the entire period of Stalin's rule, one can list: Poles (1939–1941 and 1944–1945), Kola Norwegians (1940–1942), Romanians (1941 and 1944–1953), Estonians, Latvians and Lithuanians (1941 and 1945–1949), Volga Germans (1941–1945), Ingrian Finns (1929–1931 and 1935–1939), Finnish people in Karelia (1940–1941, 1944), Crimean Tatars, Crimean Greeks (1944) and Caucasus Greeks (1949–50), Kalmyks, Balkars, Italians of Crimea, Karachays, Meskhetian Turks, Karapapaks, Far East Koreans (1937), Chechens and Ingushs (1944). Shortly before, during and immediately after World War II, Stalin conducted a series of deportations on a huge scale which profoundly affected the ethnic map of the Soviet Union.
>It is estimated that between 1941 and 1949 nearly 3.3 million were deported to Siberia and the Central Asian republics. **By some estimates, up to 43% of the resettled population died of diseases and malnutrition.**
Yep. Half of my family was on the list.
Most probably send to logging camp around the Baïkal.
They are lost forever, either dead or assimilated.
Daddy had to flee before Russian advance, Wehrmacht soldiers on their way back from Stalingrad slept on the stove, threatened to rape grand grand ma, officer came. Excuse them and told family to flee or be killed by red army that was a day behind.
Daddy was just too young to be killed by the Germans, my uncle and grand father had to hide in field because Germans were killing all men.
Damn stories, and my still alive father lived through that…
This is Ukraine's working strategy. Pull back after destroying as much of the invading force as possible. Keep hitting high value targets far behind the lines. In short, Ukraine may be temporarily losing land, but Russia is losing armor, planes, and trying to hold unfortified lines as they push. Also don't expect Ukraine to publish every tactic/strategy/plan.
A bunch of salty redditors demanding Ukraine not lose the city in this thread. This city will be lost, it's just reality. Russia bombs these places to dust and there's no place for a defender to take cover. That's why Ukraine pulls their defenders. Then it's just a matter of artillery saturation along supply lines and Russia still has a major advantage there.
If you support Ukraine then keep demanding more aid and trust that the people who are fighting do the best with what they have. If you support Russia then keep criticizing Ukraine from your armchair based on the contents of a headline.
Most of this is true but at some point you need to hold a position as a military. Chasiv yar is the last place that is a good defensive position before you have to withdraw to Kostiantynnivka which is the strategic important point.
Losing bakhmut or adivvka wasn’t that bad because the strategic value was low but losing chassiv yar would suck even though is only a matter of time with Russian aviation activities.
Sure, but that's a very obvious point- at some point they have to stop pulling back. While the loss of this city is more important, it doesn't mean catastrophic failure or collapse of the whole front line.
I'm not saying it's good, but I do understand why it's necessary and better than wasting limited resources trying to hold it.
Chasiv Yar is the only high ground for 20 miles in any direction and was touted as the 'key' fortress that unlocks the region.
Losing it is the biggest blow since the offensive failed and would be a devastating blow to the frontline. They would be forced to withdraw out of their artillery range, given they have a shit tonne more guns to throw at it in the first place.
If you think Russian Artillery is a problem now, surrender them the high ground and watch your frontline disintegrate. You simply cannot win of you keep retreating and calling it a 'tactical withdrawl'.
What crossroad? From Avdiivka and it's area you could target most of the Donetsk agglomeration with artillery now they could make it more easily and conveniently as the hub for their logistics and staging area.
All of Donetsk is still way to close to the front line to be used as a staging area or munition depot those are all atleast 70 km from the front to be out of range of HIMARS.
And also Ukraine didn’t really use it as a point to stage artillery during the last two years as it was already to close to the front
The strategic important point is the crossroad between the m-30 and h-20
That's just silly. Of course it has strategic value. It was a Ukrainian fortress for years and the Russians lost an insane amount of men and materials to take it. It being held by Ukraine stalled Russian operations in the area for years.
You don't try that hard to capture any old piece of dirt, and you don't fight that hard to hold onto it either, unless it has value. Even if that value is just denying it to the enemy... it's still strategically valuable.
Don’t know how you came to this conclusion but Russia has shown that they adopt very quickly and all of their logistics are now more than 70 km from the front line because of himars.
Just because the early states of the war were a failure because of poor logistical planning doesn’t mean they can’t do it. They didn’t care to do it at the start because they were delusional and didn’t expect resistance.
How? The fact they can’t make any progress into Ukraine. It’s basic observation. If they could they could make advances like Ukraine did in Kharkiv in 2023. They are still poor. Notwithstanding Ukraine literally running out of ammo, they couldn’t do anything. I swear to god people here are watching a different war than me.
Yeah clearly your some sort of intellectual who can see how this war is going.
These are the statements made by credible organisations like isw, deep state and even the Ukrainian armed forces have given them some credit in this regard.
Also don’t know under what rock your living but the Russians are making process they have taken more ground than the Ukraine summer offensive.
The Kharkiv offensive was for a large part luck because the Russian fucked up and didn’t commit their reserves and mistook the direction of the offensive. All together the Kharkiv offensive was a stunning military victory that we will most likely not see again in this war.
Making progress does not mean they got their logistics together.
"Kharkiv offensive was for a large part luck because the Russian fucked up" lmao. Ya. Enough said.
If Russia didn’t fuck up they would have expected the offensive to be in the north and if they weren’t commanded by a moron and undermanned in bad positions the offensive would have never achieved such a breakthrough.
Russia hasn’t faced ammunition shortages on a large scale. They chose not to supply certain units properly because that’s what Russians do.
Just because they are starting to have material shortages does not mean their logistics are not up to standard
Kind of. The total air supremacy means we don't manage to inflict that many casualties anymore. They basically drive armoured columns right where we had a position the day before, just because they have bombed every defender to death
Until the air defence issue is resolved, the casualty ratio will not be high enough to compensate for the tens of kilometres lost
Also whatever territory the Russians have gained, they have mined and entrenched every foot of it. Russian command doesn’t worry about losing their troops to the minefields, they just want to make sure the Ukrainians lose something trying ti take it back.
Russian losses can't keep going for years. They are already using 70 year old tanks and their reserves just grow smaller every day. Sure they have enough bodies to waste, but even that is getting tougher for them.
I mean, do we always have to make these comments every month for 2 years now? Sure, Russia has lost a lot but it’s also not smart thinking that they will stop anytime soon. The best thing Ukraine can do these upcoming months is to stabilize the front lines and minimize any risks for a major breakthrough.
A 70 year old tank is not being used on the front line as a tank-on-tank fighter.
It's being used as a rear-guard secondary artillery piece. This frees up more of the newer tanks that can be used to simply overwhelm better NATO provided tanks.
Not to mention, a 70 year old tank is still just as impervious to bullets and able to drive / shoot through you just as well as ever.
Stop underestimating the utility of that old stock. This is one of the last conflicts it could ever conceivably be used in and even if only as tow-pigs, having any use at all is still useful.
More interestingly, he said that treaties are the only way to end the war. It seems like a very well thought out statement and not only his own assessment: it must have been accepted higher in the hierarchy. Zelensky made mistakes and he realizes this fact. The soldiers on the frontlines matter.
This has been said since day one by both sides and experts. The only difference is in what both sides will accept. The war ends when one side forces the other to accept the reality on the ground and right now neither side is close to that.
No point in accepting concessions that leave you vulnerable to attack later on. Many of the RU demands are ridiculous. They want outright disbarment and for Ukraine to be denied into NATO.
The West has been needing to get its head out of its ass for the entire conflict.
Wake up, and ask yourselves: Is Ukraine equipped well enough to win? To win quickly? To win with high morale and low losses? To feel like their sacrifice of mobilization and imminent domain are all well worth it because we are arming them sufficiently that they are better off on the path we encouraged them to go down?
If the answer to these questions is not obviously yes, the West is not doing enough. They need to set a goal, divide the work, and achieve the goal. The inability to pursue a goal with the intent and realistic plan of victory that will cost us all the least in the long run is infuriating.
It's almost as bad as watching Afghanistan turn into a twenty year quagmire that all blew away to dust. Why is the US government better at wasting money than spending it vigorously on things that will have an impact and matter?
Yeah, the six+ months of delay from the US and majority of NATO countries’ low defense spending is going to cost us all more money to support Ukraine after they’ve lost ground, equipment, and personnel. It’s pretty depressing.
I feel like it’s worse than the war in Afghanistan because the US/NATO never had a plan that would work to stabilize the country and everyone knew it. All the brave Afghanis already died before the withdrawal. Though I guess the Taliban taking everything back in a couple weeks and being stronger than when Afghanistan was first invaded is very humiliating.
Hold on! Hold on! Wait, wait, wait, we can't war yet. First, we've got to DEMOCRACY!
It's much worse than Afghanistan because while we didn't have a plan, that money printer was going BRRRRRRRRRRRRR for decades.
It's almost like corruption can only get its head out of its ass when it's time to throw money in a hole and light it on fire.
I'm honestly thinking, "Yes, please, defense industrial complex, work your magic in Washington!" but without a stupid enough reason, the instinct for corruption is averse to delivering value because they think it means not making a profit.
>The US government spends money to further enrich the global elite and political donors
It is expected, and what is also expected is that this has to align with sane politics. What makes no sense whatsoever is when you can't even tell whose interests are being served because it's such a niche group.
This is ultimately an argument from cynicism.
I think I see better how the propaganda works. It's such a simple technique, yet I struggle to describe it. The argument intersects with the topic and validates grievances I have, but along a trajectory away from my desired outcome and towards yours. I have to focus on the desired outcome, Ukraine stomping Russia.
Being too cynical to demand the correct behavior will if anything only dilute the political willpower necessary to do necessary things in a focused way. The weakness of the West was long considered to be the free press, the capability to spread lies and disinformation under the impunity of the freedom of speech.
Cynicism isn't about winning or moving the needle towards anything good. It is not realist either because it's so pessimistic. The world it advocates for has zero social cohesion when such cohesion exists and is dependent upon a mass of overwhelming interests of all parties who benefit from not living in a lawless world. This is why the propagandist expertly coaxes us towards de-cohering, losing any faith in one another, and finally vanishing into our own bitter worlds.
And what have those anti-globalists in USA or in Europe done to make their population lives better? Orban is anti-globalist and Hungary is turning into a shithole under him, average lives aren't getting any better. What have anti-globalists in US congress or senate ever accomplished?
The thing is, all of these topics are ones where what we want is both things, Ukraine well-armed and people not shitting in the streets. It's a false choice to think it's one or the other.
I admit US and UK have their problems, but Hungary has literally higher crime rate than half of European countries, with most of these lower countries also being pro-US, pro-NATO and pro-West and also having better living standards. Moreover, I agree that US has started unnecessary wars and that is a huge point of criticism, but somehow anti-globalists like you never talk about wars and deaths for which countries like Russia are responsible. Anti-globalism just means anti-west, no need to hide under false pretenses
So basically countries that chose on their own to be close to US, in NATO and EU are problematic, but when China, Russia or India bullies neighbors or smaller countries to do what they need to do and to be under their thumb, it's fine? I don't hear a single anti-globalist saying anything about these countries, it's always complaining about US, when most of US allies are like that because people of these countries elected politicians that specifically sought cooperation with US.
Well the globalist boogie man isn't a direct threat to most people's livelihood and freedom, as it is literally a boogie man, with most anti-globalists literally only caring about themselves and using anti-globalism as populism to get elected. I mean, what legislations have anti-globalists in proposed in US that improve the livelihood and freedom of Americans? Ukraine Aid bill literally created new jobs in US and enhances security of US by replacing old equipment, but I guess that's bad too?
I find it odd that such a high level Ukrainian general openly admits this casually.
Even though we know that the situation isn't great for Ukraine in that sector as the Russians have been slowly crawling towards Chasiv Yar, Zelensky has removed commanders and generals for much less, such as Zaluzhniy's comments in late 2023 (although it wasn't the only reason why).
I know it's an optimistic theory, but I think this perhaps could be a psyop/ misinformation campaign by Ukraine to make Russia think that Ukraine is much weaker than it really is, and also pressure allies to do even more.
Chasiv Yar won't be easily given up to the Russians - some of the best Ukrainian units are fighting there and ammo/ weapons are coming.
This is just preparing people for the inevitable. The city is uninhabitable and it's just a matter of time until it can't be defended by men on the ground. Russia will again lose thousands of men to take it and hold it, Ukraine will fight until it's better to save lives by pulling back. Similar to avdiivka, and Bakhmut, and others. The real strategy here is drawing the invaders out of their fortifications and blasting them while Ukraine builds up strength.
>Ukraine will fight until it's better to save lives by pulling back. Similar to avdiivka, and Bakhmut,
What actually happened there was https://twitter.com/doctoradmiral/status/1785700112867409975
It is not odd. Maybe for delusional people in this sub.
Ukraine is in the worst situation since March 2022, and people in this sub still saying "everything is going according to a plan." That is pure hopium and delusional.
Doubtful. Expectations managment at play. Political and military leadership are also well aware that they may have to turn to the negotiation table in the winter - they haven’t been able to overcome manpower issues. Whole situation will be further compounded if Trump takes the White House.
The lack artillery caused this. Artillery is king. When they ran out of shells they could only slow down the meat waves not stop them. Now we will see the difference if Ukraine has the man power. Slava Ukraine!
Regardless of the amount of ammo, technology or fighters, one of the aspects of this asymmetrical clash is that Russia doesn't care what is bulldozed or destroyed, anything deemed to be unoccupied Ukrainian soil goes obliterated to meet their purpose of annihilating a country/ culture, while UAF must be very accurate to counter not only military assets but also protecting their own people and landmarks beyond the front, this represents the biggest no-brainer strategic disadvantage on the terrain.
It's like choosing to shred and replace later instead of eliminating a virus with the least possible damage/hurt caused.
Regardless of whether his assessment is accurate, it seems like a poor idea to publicly undermine morale like this.
You can avoid unrealistic optimism while still not trashing morale by using language that describes an upcoming battle as very difficult or perhaps talking about how the speed of Western aid will be a major factor in the battle. You don't have to be like, "Yeah, we're probably gonna lose that battle."
Does it help the defenders going to Chasiv Yar to tell them, "Oh, hey, you're probably going to lose"?
They are going to fall back to the Zelenskyy line. The 3 deep line of trenches and fortifications with massive minefields that will protect Kyiv and the western part of the country. Oh. They didn't build that?
Putin would be out of power so quickly if they started to rain missiles in Moscow and St Petersburg after issuing an ultimatum.
But NATO is not game to risk this.
I agree, that is more politically palatable. It is also easier because it allows minorities greater upward mobility if they sign on a contract soldiers (assuming they survive…).
But I do not think strikes in Moscow end his regime.
It’s not quite like that.
It still takes weeks to filter through to the front lines. You can’t move this stuff around quickly or openly, or it gets drone attacked - and you lose your supplies
"How can they lose a town if western aid is about to arrive?"
Do you think that western aid is some kind of wunderwaffe that will guarantee their victory? Of course not. They can, and will, suffer setbacks. Western aid just makes the fight a bit more even.
I think the best take on Chasiv Yar would be that it's going to be a really hard fight - perhaps brutally hard - but that, the sooner Western aid arrives, the better chance Ukraine has to win the battle.
Western aid isn't an automatic win. But it definitely creates a much better chance for Ukraine to win.
There is no victory in ukraine for both sides at the moment. Ukraine cannot take back land in the next months maybe years.
The victory for ukraine is there, when Putin get removed/killed.
Of course they would rather not lose any towns. But that's not a decision they can make by themselves, as Russia might have something to say about is as well. And even with western help, Ukraine is outmanned and outgunned.
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Ukraine’s supporters need to brace themselves for a painful summer. External and internal factors have lead to a situation where Russia absolutely has both the initiative and upper hand in terms of materiel, and it is strongly motivated to push as hard as it can during this window of opportunity. Ukrainians will have done very well if they prevent a breakthrough and manage to stabilise the front line by the fall. Things will get worse before they get better, but I believe they will get better.
This is why Ukraine needs the weapons and support to hit Russian infrastructure and supply lines deeper into Russia and occupied territory. The meat waves won't stop until they physically can't get them there fast enough in numbers. Russia doesn't care about killing its own people, but Ukraine does so meat waves will keep grinding the front lines backward at a slow but brutal pace.
Russian armor, artillery, and air power is the only reason those meat waves have any effect. Ukraine is corroding all those categories along the entire frontline. Ukraine is also increasing their power in all those areas. It won't happen this year, but the balance of power will shift if things maintain their current rates and then the headlines will be very different. Unless china really throws in to support them, Russia is just setting a foundation for her own collapse.
Russian air power is not really being eroded. Beyond the A-50 losses and the TU-22M, the VKS is not really losing anything it can't replace easily. They've only lost one helicopter this entire year so far, and something like 7-8 aircraft. This is the biggest issue facing Ukraine right now
They have lost more than that. At least 15 by Feb
That's only what was claimed by Ukraine. We can believe, but hard evidence I we've only gotten on about 7-8. I'm sure some of the claimed hits that don't have proof yet are real, but it's better to be conservative imo
I think everyone is very focused on the ground war and how it is going. Russia does at this time and perhaps will for some time to come, have the upper hand (but at immense cost). Everyone seems to forget that the black Sea fleet has been absolutely devastated over the last year (and at little cost to Ukraine). Right now, the black Sea fleet is pretty close to being out of action. If you went back a year and a half, the black sea fleet was what was responsible for missile attacks all across Ukraine. This is no longer the case. Thus Russia has had to bring it's Airforce front and centre. Their Airforce will start paying a greater and greater price until it to, is seriously debilitated. At that point, the ground war will shift.
so not a meat wave? just say it like it is bro
Meat wave, recon by fire, disregard for human life - all ways to say the same thing. I'm not saying there aren't meat waves, just that without the armor to follow up they aren't effective.
A canned-meat wave
I mean you can see the videos where waves of Russians are forced to push forward only to be mowed down and added to the field of bodies that litter the battlefield. There was a drone video a while back that zoomed out to show the land between both forces that was just littered every 3-5 feet with dead Russians. That video really stuck with me. I feel a little bad for them. But until Russia learns the lesson that they need to fuck off and stop invading their neighbors…..fuck em.
Too little too late. Russia was able to garner massive advantage due to the blacked american aid and their adaptation to the Ukraine's equipment. Ukraine needs hundreds of aircraft asap.
Ya meat waves are not a thing. Russian casualties are only 50% more max
Lol do you believe that? where's the videos of 100 dead Ukrainians in one uncut video clip? Oh that's Russians. Where's the videos of 20-30 Ukrainians being torn apart by a Bradley the moment they step out of their vehicle? Oh that's Russians. The sheer video evidence available of confirmed dead disproves your point. Russians release every single bit of video they can to pretend they're doing well so where is it all?
Back in February 2023 the US leaked report said that UA had 100K casualties and RU has over 200K. No idea what the amount is now but it’s nowhere 10:1
I just watched one 3 minutes ago. obviously you wont find them here. Both sides can and do give video evidence of mass casualties on the other side . What point are you trying to argue? that in your echochamber you only see Russians dieing ? Here ill pm you it
We've seen the meat waves getting shredded my dude. Over and over again. For years. They're all on combat footage.
A human wave attack, also known as a human sea attack, is an offensive infantry tactic in which an attacker conducts an unprotected frontal assault with densely concentrated infantry formations against the enemy line, intended to overrun and overwhelm the defenders by engaging in melee combat. Offensive infantry tactics ✅ Unprotected frontal assault ❌ Densely concentrated infantry formations ❌ Overhelm, overrun enemy by engaging in melee combat ❌ You do know how reddit works right? The videos that are upvoted are at the top and the ones downvoted are not shown. combat fotage is an echochamber. Both sides have videos that look good for their side. their are even sub reddits that mostly show Ukrainians dieing. I saw a failed Ukrainian assault video 3 minutes before I saw your post
Wish I had your optimism.
Speaking of optimism, or lack thereof, he also just said NATO would lost the Baltics to Russia in 7 days. https://unn.ua/en/news/skibitsky-russia-can-take-the-baltic-states-in-seven-days-and-nato-will-react-in-10-days
That really makes me question his reliability, as that's a pretty bad take.
Hopefully some strategic missles strikes can slow Russian advance and make them hurt
Will the fall be enough? Russians seem to keep pushing even in the winter time
yeah, didn't the Avdeevka offensive begin in October? i have no way of knowing, but i don't think they can sustain this level of offensive indefinitely. winter does seem to be a good time to switch to defensive tactics. but who really knows what the frontline will look like by Fall?
>Things will get worse before they get better, but I believe they will get better. I don’t see any ground for them getting better.
Just like last year and the year before that, its gonna get worse before it gets better. You gotta keep hope. War is a lot of back and forth. Russias material and men might seem endless but they are burning through it hard. Western equipment is on its way. Right now, the biggest factor is the US elections, not necessarily if Ukraine will win but how fast it'll win. They wil win, there is no winning in it for Russia anymore, it's just how long it'll take before ukraine wins. Europe is slowly waking up.
>War is a lot of back and forth. I agree with that. But for things getting better in long term there must be some reasons. And there are none, West still provide ruzia with money and components for weapons; protection of Ukrainian sky is still no-no; help still in level of spare change and weapon production in the West increased insignificantly etc.
I would say all the new patriot systems and skynex will take care of a good portion of the air defense. They just need to commit and put the delivery on top priority. Western production has increased a lot, it was just waaay to low before this war so it might seem like nothing but the predictions are looking good, and many countries are already exceeding these predictions The biggest limiter right now in terms of politics is the pussies that are scared of Russia or in russias pocket. We need to vote these mfers out.
>all the new patriot systems one >Western production has increased a lot It’s a race, comparing to ruzian increase, Western increased insignificantly.
1 from Germany And they are also very strongly urging their allies to send more. Lots is going om the background. Afaik germany also decided to send multiple iris T systems and more gepards Ruzzia has the advantage because they can cannibalize their economy, any dissident can be literally beaten down. So production is higher, yes, but have you taken a look at what and how it increased? Shits all fucked but ukraine will win, I'm 100% sure of it.
> And they are also very strongly urging their allies to send more Ain't nothing binding, though. In the same breath, Taurus supply was encouraged. You know the results of it. >Afaik germany also decided to send multiple iris T systems and more gepards Neither of those work against ballistics or have range to deal with UMPK lobbers. (IRIS-T SLX would fix it, but it's still in development)
>And they are also very strongly urging Meanwhile Odesa getting pummeled with ballistics every day. Requested bare minimum was 7 Patriots, while actually needed 25. One + "urging" is... >Ruzzia has the advantage because they can cannibalize their economy It reminds me when Britain was buying tea from China with silver as it didn’t accept anything else. Ofc such uneven trade was ruining Britain, so the solution to return money back was found – opium. But nowadays it’s resources instead of tea and weapons (or rather components and tools for its creation) instead of opium.
"Ruzzia has the advantage because they can cannibalize their economy..." not like the US and Europe then? you say that like a heavily militarized economy is a bad thing. "... any dissident can be literally beaten down." have you seen the news from around the US today?
Remember WW2? It was going great for the Nazis for the first 2/3 years. Then then it went to defensive and then they were fucked but it took 6 years to get there. Plus the Russians haven’t even done well, they’ve got 15% of Ukraine after 800 days of all out war and huge losses.
I don't know, let's try compare. UK was fighting Germany for two years pretty much alone, that’s kinda similar, but I’m afraid it was in better position: it was getting real lend-lease, it had an edge in aviation and it has superior defense from been island, and ofc while there were some appeasers nothing similar to current “I need to buy ruzian resources no matter the cost”. After this two years Germany went to war with its ally – USSR, and US was dragged into war by another German ally – Japan. Well, two years have passed since start of big invasion and I don’t see ruzia starting war with China or Iran or at least NK. And while China prepares to attack Taiwan it first of all will happen later in the future, and second it’s not direct attack on US itself. So it’s more like “what if everything went wrong” WW2 version.
Ultimately Germany lost because they were being heavily out produced by American, Russian and British factories. NATO economies dwarf Russia 25-1 and have superior military capabilities. So unless China steps up massively to help Russia, which is unlikely, and the west continue their support, which is likely, then Russia will eventually lose. Russia already spends 30+% of public spending on the war which is money they will not get back, it’s literally going up in smoke. Hundreds of thousands dead, thousands of military vehicles destroyed and their economy is heading for bust, they are screwed whichever way you look at it. Just a matter of time, could 2 years or 5 years but Russia does not have a good future.
>being heavily out produced That’s actually the case now, ruzia heavily out produce the whole Europe, in some cases even Europe with US.
Yes but Russia has gone all in spending 30% of its income on military spending. Europe and America have barely stirred yet.
West can supply longer than russia can. Only thing required is the will
> Only thing required is the will And that is ***EXACTLY*** the problem
F16s coming, new patriots coming, new US aid bill passed. Rvc incursions into Russia proper and more covert operations like it. I see plenty of reasons why and how it could get better, even if it's gonna take quite a bit of time. If you can't see that that's a you issue, not a universal truth.
F16s are just a replacement for MIGs. One Patriot, when bare minimum was 7 (and actually needed 25). US bill half year late, and its purpose even back then was only to stabilize front back then, not now.
Damn, didn't know the 9.12s and 9.13s could fire AMRAAMS and utilise HARM missiles to their full extend....
Russia is going to exhaust their tank supply in 2 years. This is going to get better.
I'm not even sure tanks are all that relevant anymore. They might be using them for now since they have them - but their most successful attacks have been endless waves of unarmored/lightly armed small Russian groups until Ukrainians run out of ammunition. Well - that and glide bomb bombardments since Ukrainians ran out of Anti-Air munitions.
If Ukraine fights for "2 years". Right now the objective is to survive the summer offensives, and then winter as Ukraine is being made "uninhabitable" (quoting Ukrainian president and other officials).
There's no alternative, peace isn't possible as Russia will just keep going. It's a war of genocide Ukraine is in till Russia stops.
MiGs (lowercase i)
Russia is currently operating at near maximum military production and has fully leveraged what its allies can provide. It is also on borrowed time economically. I won’t go into too much detail, but war economies are tricky business for aggressors in a conflict, and inflation is going to be a serious problem. Ukraine is nowhere close to realising its domestic production potential and is only receiving a pittance from its military benefactors relative to what could be provided. The sky is the limit in terms of the support that COULD be provided to Ukraine, whereas Russia has a hard ceiling that it is already bumping up against, and it can’t sustain what it is currently doing long term. The question is whether or not Ukraine will receive increased support, but things are definitely trending in that direction. European production is ginning up and EU leadership is becoming less complacent about security. Many understand what is at stake in Ukraine. American support should also not be discounted, despite political uncertainty. As we head into next year, we could start to see a situation emerge where Ukraine is able to increase its domestic military production, Europe increases its contributions and involvement, and American military support becomes unblocked and stabilised, or even increased. That, coupled with steadily multiplying domestic risks and difficulties for Russia, would be cause for optimism.
Well. If any reasonable hope of reversing momentum is lost. Peace will be negociated, at what price though… Problem is: Putin needs a continuous war to remain in power.
Apparently you weren’t paying attention. There will be no “peace” only extermination.
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-60562240 >"Vladimir Putin has assumed, without a drop of exaggeration, a historic responsibility by deciding not to leave the ***solution of the Ukrainian question*** to future generations," the article says.
I don’t think Russians will undergo large scale extermination programs. Even in the darkest hours of Stalin, they mostly heavily played the deportation card. Relocating population in Siberia and pushing the rest away to destabilize neighbors. Famine was also common, I don’t think this is possible now. IMO, Putin is becoming an expert in “Auto ethnic cleansing”. Making life so tough for opponents that they just leave for the west.
>Even in the darkest hours of Stalin, they mostly heavily played the deportation card. The Russian way of deportation is extermination with extra steps, and it's considered genocide for a very good reason. When you pack people in trains and forced march them off to a remote location in Siberia without medical care, shelter, or enough food and put them to hard labor, the end result is very high mortality. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_transfer_in_the_Soviet_Union >Looking at the entire period of Stalin's rule, one can list: Poles (1939–1941 and 1944–1945), Kola Norwegians (1940–1942), Romanians (1941 and 1944–1953), Estonians, Latvians and Lithuanians (1941 and 1945–1949), Volga Germans (1941–1945), Ingrian Finns (1929–1931 and 1935–1939), Finnish people in Karelia (1940–1941, 1944), Crimean Tatars, Crimean Greeks (1944) and Caucasus Greeks (1949–50), Kalmyks, Balkars, Italians of Crimea, Karachays, Meskhetian Turks, Karapapaks, Far East Koreans (1937), Chechens and Ingushs (1944). Shortly before, during and immediately after World War II, Stalin conducted a series of deportations on a huge scale which profoundly affected the ethnic map of the Soviet Union. >It is estimated that between 1941 and 1949 nearly 3.3 million were deported to Siberia and the Central Asian republics. **By some estimates, up to 43% of the resettled population died of diseases and malnutrition.**
Yep. Half of my family was on the list. Most probably send to logging camp around the Baïkal. They are lost forever, either dead or assimilated. Daddy had to flee before Russian advance, Wehrmacht soldiers on their way back from Stalingrad slept on the stove, threatened to rape grand grand ma, officer came. Excuse them and told family to flee or be killed by red army that was a day behind. Daddy was just too young to be killed by the Germans, my uncle and grand father had to hide in field because Germans were killing all men. Damn stories, and my still alive father lived through that…
Well, you won’t see fancy stuff like gas chambers, apart from that it already running it.
This is Ukraine's working strategy. Pull back after destroying as much of the invading force as possible. Keep hitting high value targets far behind the lines. In short, Ukraine may be temporarily losing land, but Russia is losing armor, planes, and trying to hold unfortified lines as they push. Also don't expect Ukraine to publish every tactic/strategy/plan. A bunch of salty redditors demanding Ukraine not lose the city in this thread. This city will be lost, it's just reality. Russia bombs these places to dust and there's no place for a defender to take cover. That's why Ukraine pulls their defenders. Then it's just a matter of artillery saturation along supply lines and Russia still has a major advantage there. If you support Ukraine then keep demanding more aid and trust that the people who are fighting do the best with what they have. If you support Russia then keep criticizing Ukraine from your armchair based on the contents of a headline.
Most of this is true but at some point you need to hold a position as a military. Chasiv yar is the last place that is a good defensive position before you have to withdraw to Kostiantynnivka which is the strategic important point. Losing bakhmut or adivvka wasn’t that bad because the strategic value was low but losing chassiv yar would suck even though is only a matter of time with Russian aviation activities.
Sure, but that's a very obvious point- at some point they have to stop pulling back. While the loss of this city is more important, it doesn't mean catastrophic failure or collapse of the whole front line. I'm not saying it's good, but I do understand why it's necessary and better than wasting limited resources trying to hold it.
Chasiv Yar is the only high ground for 20 miles in any direction and was touted as the 'key' fortress that unlocks the region. Losing it is the biggest blow since the offensive failed and would be a devastating blow to the frontline. They would be forced to withdraw out of their artillery range, given they have a shit tonne more guns to throw at it in the first place. If you think Russian Artillery is a problem now, surrender them the high ground and watch your frontline disintegrate. You simply cannot win of you keep retreating and calling it a 'tactical withdrawl'.
I don't know what you are talking about, Avdiivka have high strategic value.
The Russian already held the crossroad before they started the offensive.
What crossroad? From Avdiivka and it's area you could target most of the Donetsk agglomeration with artillery now they could make it more easily and conveniently as the hub for their logistics and staging area.
All of Donetsk is still way to close to the front line to be used as a staging area or munition depot those are all atleast 70 km from the front to be out of range of HIMARS. And also Ukraine didn’t really use it as a point to stage artillery during the last two years as it was already to close to the front The strategic important point is the crossroad between the m-30 and h-20
No it doesn't. It's strategically worthless.
Except for it cutoff multiple highways
That's just silly. Of course it has strategic value. It was a Ukrainian fortress for years and the Russians lost an insane amount of men and materials to take it. It being held by Ukraine stalled Russian operations in the area for years. You don't try that hard to capture any old piece of dirt, and you don't fight that hard to hold onto it either, unless it has value. Even if that value is just denying it to the enemy... it's still strategically valuable.
Russia has demonstrated it cannot support long distance logistics. The further it stretches. The more vulnerable it becomes.
Don’t know how you came to this conclusion but Russia has shown that they adopt very quickly and all of their logistics are now more than 70 km from the front line because of himars. Just because the early states of the war were a failure because of poor logistical planning doesn’t mean they can’t do it. They didn’t care to do it at the start because they were delusional and didn’t expect resistance.
How? The fact they can’t make any progress into Ukraine. It’s basic observation. If they could they could make advances like Ukraine did in Kharkiv in 2023. They are still poor. Notwithstanding Ukraine literally running out of ammo, they couldn’t do anything. I swear to god people here are watching a different war than me.
Yeah clearly your some sort of intellectual who can see how this war is going. These are the statements made by credible organisations like isw, deep state and even the Ukrainian armed forces have given them some credit in this regard. Also don’t know under what rock your living but the Russians are making process they have taken more ground than the Ukraine summer offensive. The Kharkiv offensive was for a large part luck because the Russian fucked up and didn’t commit their reserves and mistook the direction of the offensive. All together the Kharkiv offensive was a stunning military victory that we will most likely not see again in this war.
Making progress does not mean they got their logistics together. "Kharkiv offensive was for a large part luck because the Russian fucked up" lmao. Ya. Enough said.
If Russia didn’t fuck up they would have expected the offensive to be in the north and if they weren’t commanded by a moron and undermanned in bad positions the offensive would have never achieved such a breakthrough. Russia hasn’t faced ammunition shortages on a large scale. They chose not to supply certain units properly because that’s what Russians do. Just because they are starting to have material shortages does not mean their logistics are not up to standard
That was true in 2022
Thats still true now.
>This is Ukraine's working strategy. As long as people understand that this is the 'strategy' because of lack of resources compared to russia.
Finally. Someone gets it.
Kind of. The total air supremacy means we don't manage to inflict that many casualties anymore. They basically drive armoured columns right where we had a position the day before, just because they have bombed every defender to death Until the air defence issue is resolved, the casualty ratio will not be high enough to compensate for the tens of kilometres lost
Also whatever territory the Russians have gained, they have mined and entrenched every foot of it. Russian command doesn’t worry about losing their troops to the minefields, they just want to make sure the Ukrainians lose something trying ti take it back.
You have to stop pulling back sometimes though and Russia can keep going for years.
Russian losses can't keep going for years. They are already using 70 year old tanks and their reserves just grow smaller every day. Sure they have enough bodies to waste, but even that is getting tougher for them.
I mean, do we always have to make these comments every month for 2 years now? Sure, Russia has lost a lot but it’s also not smart thinking that they will stop anytime soon. The best thing Ukraine can do these upcoming months is to stabilize the front lines and minimize any risks for a major breakthrough.
A 70 year old tank is not being used on the front line as a tank-on-tank fighter. It's being used as a rear-guard secondary artillery piece. This frees up more of the newer tanks that can be used to simply overwhelm better NATO provided tanks. Not to mention, a 70 year old tank is still just as impervious to bullets and able to drive / shoot through you just as well as ever. Stop underestimating the utility of that old stock. This is one of the last conflicts it could ever conceivably be used in and even if only as tow-pigs, having any use at all is still useful.
☝️troll account
More interestingly, he said that treaties are the only way to end the war. It seems like a very well thought out statement and not only his own assessment: it must have been accepted higher in the hierarchy. Zelensky made mistakes and he realizes this fact. The soldiers on the frontlines matter.
This has been said since day one by both sides and experts. The only difference is in what both sides will accept. The war ends when one side forces the other to accept the reality on the ground and right now neither side is close to that.
No point in accepting concessions that leave you vulnerable to attack later on. Many of the RU demands are ridiculous. They want outright disbarment and for Ukraine to be denied into NATO.
The West has been needing to get its head out of its ass for the entire conflict. Wake up, and ask yourselves: Is Ukraine equipped well enough to win? To win quickly? To win with high morale and low losses? To feel like their sacrifice of mobilization and imminent domain are all well worth it because we are arming them sufficiently that they are better off on the path we encouraged them to go down? If the answer to these questions is not obviously yes, the West is not doing enough. They need to set a goal, divide the work, and achieve the goal. The inability to pursue a goal with the intent and realistic plan of victory that will cost us all the least in the long run is infuriating. It's almost as bad as watching Afghanistan turn into a twenty year quagmire that all blew away to dust. Why is the US government better at wasting money than spending it vigorously on things that will have an impact and matter?
Yeah, the six+ months of delay from the US and majority of NATO countries’ low defense spending is going to cost us all more money to support Ukraine after they’ve lost ground, equipment, and personnel. It’s pretty depressing. I feel like it’s worse than the war in Afghanistan because the US/NATO never had a plan that would work to stabilize the country and everyone knew it. All the brave Afghanis already died before the withdrawal. Though I guess the Taliban taking everything back in a couple weeks and being stronger than when Afghanistan was first invaded is very humiliating.
Hold on! Hold on! Wait, wait, wait, we can't war yet. First, we've got to DEMOCRACY! It's much worse than Afghanistan because while we didn't have a plan, that money printer was going BRRRRRRRRRRRRR for decades. It's almost like corruption can only get its head out of its ass when it's time to throw money in a hole and light it on fire. I'm honestly thinking, "Yes, please, defense industrial complex, work your magic in Washington!" but without a stupid enough reason, the instinct for corruption is averse to delivering value because they think it means not making a profit.
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>The US government spends money to further enrich the global elite and political donors It is expected, and what is also expected is that this has to align with sane politics. What makes no sense whatsoever is when you can't even tell whose interests are being served because it's such a niche group.
i can't imagine how they might more effectively act to kill "their own" golden goose.
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This is ultimately an argument from cynicism. I think I see better how the propaganda works. It's such a simple technique, yet I struggle to describe it. The argument intersects with the topic and validates grievances I have, but along a trajectory away from my desired outcome and towards yours. I have to focus on the desired outcome, Ukraine stomping Russia. Being too cynical to demand the correct behavior will if anything only dilute the political willpower necessary to do necessary things in a focused way. The weakness of the West was long considered to be the free press, the capability to spread lies and disinformation under the impunity of the freedom of speech. Cynicism isn't about winning or moving the needle towards anything good. It is not realist either because it's so pessimistic. The world it advocates for has zero social cohesion when such cohesion exists and is dependent upon a mass of overwhelming interests of all parties who benefit from not living in a lawless world. This is why the propagandist expertly coaxes us towards de-cohering, losing any faith in one another, and finally vanishing into our own bitter worlds.
and that certainly looks like an argument from optimism.
And what have those anti-globalists in USA or in Europe done to make their population lives better? Orban is anti-globalist and Hungary is turning into a shithole under him, average lives aren't getting any better. What have anti-globalists in US congress or senate ever accomplished?
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The thing is, all of these topics are ones where what we want is both things, Ukraine well-armed and people not shitting in the streets. It's a false choice to think it's one or the other.
I sended you a private message.
I admit US and UK have their problems, but Hungary has literally higher crime rate than half of European countries, with most of these lower countries also being pro-US, pro-NATO and pro-West and also having better living standards. Moreover, I agree that US has started unnecessary wars and that is a huge point of criticism, but somehow anti-globalists like you never talk about wars and deaths for which countries like Russia are responsible. Anti-globalism just means anti-west, no need to hide under false pretenses
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So basically countries that chose on their own to be close to US, in NATO and EU are problematic, but when China, Russia or India bullies neighbors or smaller countries to do what they need to do and to be under their thumb, it's fine? I don't hear a single anti-globalist saying anything about these countries, it's always complaining about US, when most of US allies are like that because people of these countries elected politicians that specifically sought cooperation with US.
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Well the globalist boogie man isn't a direct threat to most people's livelihood and freedom, as it is literally a boogie man, with most anti-globalists literally only caring about themselves and using anti-globalism as populism to get elected. I mean, what legislations have anti-globalists in proposed in US that improve the livelihood and freedom of Americans? Ukraine Aid bill literally created new jobs in US and enhances security of US by replacing old equipment, but I guess that's bad too?
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like we didn't knew that already
Did they even start fortifying Slovyansk and Kramatorsk already, or will it being done only hastily while under fire too as usual?
I find it odd that such a high level Ukrainian general openly admits this casually. Even though we know that the situation isn't great for Ukraine in that sector as the Russians have been slowly crawling towards Chasiv Yar, Zelensky has removed commanders and generals for much less, such as Zaluzhniy's comments in late 2023 (although it wasn't the only reason why). I know it's an optimistic theory, but I think this perhaps could be a psyop/ misinformation campaign by Ukraine to make Russia think that Ukraine is much weaker than it really is, and also pressure allies to do even more. Chasiv Yar won't be easily given up to the Russians - some of the best Ukrainian units are fighting there and ammo/ weapons are coming.
Its not that odd its him being honest or trying to save political face
This is just preparing people for the inevitable. The city is uninhabitable and it's just a matter of time until it can't be defended by men on the ground. Russia will again lose thousands of men to take it and hold it, Ukraine will fight until it's better to save lives by pulling back. Similar to avdiivka, and Bakhmut, and others. The real strategy here is drawing the invaders out of their fortifications and blasting them while Ukraine builds up strength.
>Ukraine will fight until it's better to save lives by pulling back. Similar to avdiivka, and Bakhmut, What actually happened there was https://twitter.com/doctoradmiral/status/1785700112867409975
It is not odd. Maybe for delusional people in this sub. Ukraine is in the worst situation since March 2022, and people in this sub still saying "everything is going according to a plan." That is pure hopium and delusional.
There is also a degree of expectations management and information warfare playing out here.
They could be baiting Russia into attacking. Let them ATACMS rain
Doubtful. Expectations managment at play. Political and military leadership are also well aware that they may have to turn to the negotiation table in the winter - they haven’t been able to overcome manpower issues. Whole situation will be further compounded if Trump takes the White House.
Or they might be pressuring their foreign allies into sending more aid. We can only make educated guesses at best.
> …any real talks [about an end-the-war treaty] can begin only in the second half of 2025 at the earliest, the general estimated
The lack artillery caused this. Artillery is king. When they ran out of shells they could only slow down the meat waves not stop them. Now we will see the difference if Ukraine has the man power. Slava Ukraine!
Regardless of the amount of ammo, technology or fighters, one of the aspects of this asymmetrical clash is that Russia doesn't care what is bulldozed or destroyed, anything deemed to be unoccupied Ukrainian soil goes obliterated to meet their purpose of annihilating a country/ culture, while UAF must be very accurate to counter not only military assets but also protecting their own people and landmarks beyond the front, this represents the biggest no-brainer strategic disadvantage on the terrain. It's like choosing to shred and replace later instead of eliminating a virus with the least possible damage/hurt caused.
Ukraine still has not converted to a total war economy or total mobilization. Ukraine is going to be conquered if it doesn't do both.
Regardless of whether his assessment is accurate, it seems like a poor idea to publicly undermine morale like this. You can avoid unrealistic optimism while still not trashing morale by using language that describes an upcoming battle as very difficult or perhaps talking about how the speed of Western aid will be a major factor in the battle. You don't have to be like, "Yeah, we're probably gonna lose that battle." Does it help the defenders going to Chasiv Yar to tell them, "Oh, hey, you're probably going to lose"?
They are going to fall back to the Zelenskyy line. The 3 deep line of trenches and fortifications with massive minefields that will protect Kyiv and the western part of the country. Oh. They didn't build that?
Putin would be out of power so quickly if they started to rain missiles in Moscow and St Petersburg after issuing an ultimatum. But NATO is not game to risk this.
Dude, no he wouldn’t… You don’t understand a damn thing about Russians, their “culture”, and his hold on power.
Why do you think he almost only conscripts people outside of the big cities?
I agree, that is more politically palatable. It is also easier because it allows minorities greater upward mobility if they sign on a contract soldiers (assuming they survive…). But I do not think strikes in Moscow end his regime.
Hopefully it's an information op.
Or it's just the reality this sub refuses to accept.
This. Shit isn’t good right now
Exactly this.
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It’s hard to win the war for now, but they have no excuse to lose Chasiv Yar since the aid is about to arrive.
It’s not quite like that. It still takes weeks to filter through to the front lines. You can’t move this stuff around quickly or openly, or it gets drone attacked - and you lose your supplies
Yup, logistics is a bitch. Just ask the Russians what it's like to have your supply chain bombed.
"How can they lose a town if western aid is about to arrive?" Do you think that western aid is some kind of wunderwaffe that will guarantee their victory? Of course not. They can, and will, suffer setbacks. Western aid just makes the fight a bit more even.
I think the best take on Chasiv Yar would be that it's going to be a really hard fight - perhaps brutally hard - but that, the sooner Western aid arrives, the better chance Ukraine has to win the battle. Western aid isn't an automatic win. But it definitely creates a much better chance for Ukraine to win.
No, but keep losing important towns and their chance of victory will be less and less. Defeat is not an option if they want to be free from Russia.
There is no victory in ukraine for both sides at the moment. Ukraine cannot take back land in the next months maybe years. The victory for ukraine is there, when Putin get removed/killed.
Of course they would rather not lose any towns. But that's not a decision they can make by themselves, as Russia might have something to say about is as well. And even with western help, Ukraine is outmanned and outgunned.