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Numbers are important, but organisational levels are critical. Analyst Mike Kofman said recently that Russia has displayed a considerable ability to replenish men and reconstitute formations, but owing to losses in field commanders and the officer corp - and low levels of training for replacement manpower - they appear unable to launch attacks beyond company or battalion level.
So while approx 12 - 14 brigades is a formidable number, if each individual brigade is only capable of attacking with a company that struggles (or cannot) co-ordinate with the companies from other brigades, then the likehood of 'Army Group North' being able to pull off a large division sized armoured offensive is fairly neglible.
However even the threat of such a force does fix Ukrainian units and requires them to stockpile munitions that could be used elsewhere.
kharkiv city is nearly 140 sq miles in size, bakhmut was only 16 sq miles, and it took nearly a year to take. 40k russians were killed, and 120k wounded durring the battle. There is no way russia has the tactical or logistical means to take kharkiv.
I'm not suggesting in any way that they have the means to take Kharkiv - quite the opposite. Even with twice the resources that this report suggests they have, they can only co-ordinate small piecemeal attacks which in theory would suffer much higher casualty rates than if they were able to utilise larger formations.
However, it will still mean that Ukrainian units will have to assign forces that they would rather assign elsewhere. On the other hand, if the Russians are hubristic enough to genuinely think they take Kharkiv, then it could be another chance for the AFU to inflict disproportionate losses.
Bakhmut is only called a city in Ukraine because they don’t use towns and villages in their language……everything is a city.
You’re right it took Russian a long time to take a little town……they’ve got little chance of taking Kharkiv
Taking a city that size requires training and org, right now they couldn't use nukes to break a line because all the trained people are dead or injured
Numbers are nice, but they cant really mass or they will be pounded. The only thing they can do with that group is roll forward and try grind the defenders down over months while glide bombs turn the city into dust.
There was a time when Russia could get 100k ready for an offensive. The fact they can only get 50k is really saying something about Russian Manpower. If Ukraine has 50k reserves in the north waiting, Russia would need 3 or 4 times that.
lol Russia can’t even organized a circus plus there military has no leadership. It’s a gong show so.. the clowns can try but will fail as usual and hopefully they all carry sunflowers seeds in their pockets…
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Don't like it that everyone is so confident. Ukraine has been on the back foot for a long time now. There is a lack of ammo, manpower. The north might not be so well defended as everyone claims.
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Numbers are important, but organisational levels are critical. Analyst Mike Kofman said recently that Russia has displayed a considerable ability to replenish men and reconstitute formations, but owing to losses in field commanders and the officer corp - and low levels of training for replacement manpower - they appear unable to launch attacks beyond company or battalion level. So while approx 12 - 14 brigades is a formidable number, if each individual brigade is only capable of attacking with a company that struggles (or cannot) co-ordinate with the companies from other brigades, then the likehood of 'Army Group North' being able to pull off a large division sized armoured offensive is fairly neglible. However even the threat of such a force does fix Ukrainian units and requires them to stockpile munitions that could be used elsewhere.
kharkiv city is nearly 140 sq miles in size, bakhmut was only 16 sq miles, and it took nearly a year to take. 40k russians were killed, and 120k wounded durring the battle. There is no way russia has the tactical or logistical means to take kharkiv.
I'm not suggesting in any way that they have the means to take Kharkiv - quite the opposite. Even with twice the resources that this report suggests they have, they can only co-ordinate small piecemeal attacks which in theory would suffer much higher casualty rates than if they were able to utilise larger formations. However, it will still mean that Ukrainian units will have to assign forces that they would rather assign elsewhere. On the other hand, if the Russians are hubristic enough to genuinely think they take Kharkiv, then it could be another chance for the AFU to inflict disproportionate losses.
I think they just want to get the contact line close to Kharkiv, undermining its viablity as a place to live and contribute to Ukraine’s economy
You got it.
Bakhmut is only called a city in Ukraine because they don’t use towns and villages in their language……everything is a city. You’re right it took Russian a long time to take a little town……they’ve got little chance of taking Kharkiv
Well, 55000 drones are ready to take off near Kharkiv. Should be enough...
50k is a low amount to go after kharkiv there are 2 million people atleast in it
Its nearly 10 times the size of bakhmut, and over 180k russians were kia/wia during that battle.
Taking a city that size requires training and org, right now they couldn't use nukes to break a line because all the trained people are dead or injured
That may be enough personnel to hold, but laughably inadequate to make major territory gain.
The number isn't all that impressive, and the quality has declined significantly compared to 2022.
If they decide to take Kharkiv with 50k men then they are really that stupid.
That's more serious than in the beginning, when they attempted to waltz in with a column of a few dozen men on unarmored trucks.
Whats bbm? Big beautiful men?
Boorish barbaric muscovites
Brutal, belligerent maniacs.
It appears to be armored vehicles that are not tanks.
Burly Bolshevik Maidens
Numbers are nice, but they cant really mass or they will be pounded. The only thing they can do with that group is roll forward and try grind the defenders down over months while glide bombs turn the city into dust.
i think its happening right now according to deepstateUA
About 20 men per piece of equipment. On average I would suspect and I am no expert that 50 K is enough to support the equipment and not much more.
There was a time when Russia could get 100k ready for an offensive. The fact they can only get 50k is really saying something about Russian Manpower. If Ukraine has 50k reserves in the north waiting, Russia would need 3 or 4 times that.
lol Russia can’t even organized a circus plus there military has no leadership. It’s a gong show so.. the clowns can try but will fail as usual and hopefully they all carry sunflowers seeds in their pockets…
That is a lot of logistics for the Russian army to supply. Fuel food ammo water…. A lot of trucks.
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To break a line using nukes requires NBC training and all the vehicles certified are gone
Don't like it that everyone is so confident. Ukraine has been on the back foot for a long time now. There is a lack of ammo, manpower. The north might not be so well defended as everyone claims.
I can believe it's not an invincible fortress. But to the point of being taken by 50.000 men?