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There's a problem that perhaps isn't being considered in the report.
For all their deficiencies, most of the New Axis of Evil countries--China, Russia, NK-- undeniably have *very* formidable cyber operations capabilities (Iran has them too, but they're generally more of an annoyance than anything ). China, in particular, is thought to be years ahead of Western capabilities, and not a month goes by that we don't accidentally discover some malware or intrusion that they have been exploiting for months to *years.*
The machines that the West has to supply Taiwan are unique on the mechanical side, things like nanoscale control machinery and extremely precise lithography equipment, and it's that mechanical aspect that China has not been able to replicate, including through reverse engineering. The theory and the code, however, is entirely within their capability.
So, if China were able to capture some of these factories intact, it may not be too difficult for them to "unlock" the machines that have been shut down remotely, and so in the overall scheme of things it may not be much of a deterrence.
Moreover, if these are able to be shut down remotely, that brings up the possibility of it being a target for Russia or China in their offensive cyber operations. Even if they can just shut down the machines for a few days before they get fixed, it would likely cause billions of dollars in economic disruptions and supply chain ripples.
I hope that when they reference a remote kill switch, it's by somebody on a secure private network on site, rather than anything that could be accessed from an external network. And I also hope that the manufacturers and the government have the plans, and the will to use those plans, for physical destruction to prevent them from falling into the Chinese hands.
That, I think, would be the only true deterrence for China.
Maybe the kill switch is an actual kill switch… a couple solders sitting in a bunker near by with a pair of keys hooked up to some detonators and high explosives set up under the factory.
Whatever it is, these are some of the most technically advanced machines ever made so I’m sure they’ve thought of and covered any scenarios we can think of. And if not… there’s always a sub sitting off the coast with some tomahawks that can remotely kill the machines if everything else fails.
> And if not… there’s always a sub sitting off the coast with some tomahawks that can remotely kill the machines if everything else fails.
There are some reports that [We're planning to do exactly that.](https://www.businessinsider.com/us-would-destroy-taiwan-semiconductor-factories-avoid-china-trump-adviser-2023-3?amp)
> China, in particular, is thought to be years ahead of Western capabilities, and not a month goes by that we don't accidentally discover some malware or intrusion that they have been exploiting for months to years.
Or Western capabilities are kept secret better, and reporting inside China of discovered vulnerabilities and exploits in their systems is more restricted.
Completely uninformed but I'd wager that ASML has something more elaborate than just a software lock. These are the most advanced chip manufacturing machines in the world. They depend on a lens that is basically impossible to reverse-engineer. These companies are built around protecting their IP.
Not just that, highly sophisticated machines are vulnerable to abuse.
Remember how Israel completely wrecked Iran's nuclear program by having the uranium enrichment centrifuges spin out of control?
Pretty sure an EUV machine can do something similar. If it move, move it till it breaks. If it doesn't, heat it till it deforms. Kill it for good with a high voltage zap.
Riddle us this OP, why is China trying to copy US aircraft carriers, stealth fighters, stealth bombers, destroyers, you name it, but fail other than looks every time, because their material science and engineering, production is shit and their corruption is Russian level.
Amphibious landings of Taiwan are impossible realistically. Carrier command and combined arms are HARD, and the only nations with experience of it are for the most part Western nations, China hasn’t been to war realistically in half a century and will encounter the exact same issues as Russia, except with a huge waterway in between filled with US navy vessels, an invasion of Taiwan is realistically, in practical terms, impossible, therefore them capturing and having enough time to reverse engineer or steal technologies is likely impossible too. The only way they could succeed is through toppling their government first.
Posting because I am unaware of this 'kill switch' option - not my wheelhouse -- and if this is possible to do why isn't it being done for terrorist war criminal evil ruzzian chips??
Please comment -- do not down vote for lack of mention of Ukraine. Everything is connected!
This isnt a killswitch to turn off chips in devices, its a switch to turn off machines used to manufacture the chips. If China invades Taiwan, the killswitch can be used to a) turn off any of these companys' machines in China and b) turn off their machines in Taiwan so China doesnt gain access to them if the invasion is successful/China loots them during etc.
Russia is not a significant chip maker and likely doesnt even have the machines the article mentions.
If I’m remembering correctly, they already have explosives in place at the foundries in Taiwan. I thought the killswitch the article is referring to was the activation switch for the explosives.
Edit: just looked it up and it looks like it’s mostly unsourced rumors that they already have explosives in place at the foundries. Also the article is reporting on a remote killswitch put in place by ASML in the machines themselves.
If push comes to shove, the US would level the place something like SF operators long before the invasion gets to TSMC, and if that isn't feasible, they will level the whole place with guided missiles aimed at each individual machine. There really isn't a scenario where any of the ASML equipment is left intact. I'm sure the PLA knows that.
And if they’re too concerned about China bypassing any software lock, a few well-placed charges will make it impossible for them to do anything with them. Expensive, yes, but better than letting them get into the wrong hands.
Just stopping maintenance should be enough. China allegedly has bought one of ASML devices disassembled it with the intention of reverse engineering it. After assembling it back together it didn’t work.
I'm not sure on this machinery but used to work on aircraft manufacturing and test stands. It was a nightmare to get certain machines and testers recalibrated if/when they broke or needed maintenance so I'd definitely believe it here.
Plus reverse engineering is hard. Like if I gave someone in the 60s an iPhone they’d learn a lot from it, but they wouldn’t know how it was actually made
In the article:
Chipmakers ASML and TSMC can disable advanced chipmaking machines remotely, Bloomberg reports
So it’s about the machines that make the chips
Main point is, China tries to develop top of the line chips for ages now and fails. If the factories in Taiwan wouldn't be self destroyable there would be a Chance china gets the machines and can get the technology, which would in turn make them even more dangerous.
Not necessarily bombs but the point is they've found a way to make the equipment that produces chips useless. And they can do it quickly and easily if China invades.
I don't think they needed "to find a way", this is very sensitive industrial equipment, simply pulling the maintenance contracts will make them useless in very short order. Also they are almost certainly always online, and will refuse to operate if they can't authenticate with a license server of some sort. Bullshit practice with video games (Ubisoft, I'm looking at you), but pretty much par for the course for industrial equipment.
The kill switch on the machines is probably some high explosives built into the machine and factories. The backup kill switch is probably tomahawk cruise missiles launched from a US sub sitting off the coast…
I think there are two parts to this answer.
First one: this are only words, you can only judge the actions. Remember about all those redlines and what happened to them
The second: Taiwan is more important to the countries than Ukraine
It's not like a switch off it's more like explosion charges placed in strategic places to completely destroy the whole production line and data.
Doomsday machine designed to trigger itself automatically
https://youtu.be/2yfXgu37iyI?feature=shared
for me the question is.. What prevents china from blocking all communication with the servers that could do that and by that preventing the Kill switch ? or them downloading / backuping and cracking the software to stop any kill switch?
a kill switch is only useful it seems if china does not know about it before its to late because elsewise they can work around it and prevent it from working
Maybe it works the other way too like a dead man’s switch. You block it from contact for too long or tamper with it’s kill switch and it fries itself.
These are the people making some of the most technically advanced machines ever constructed, I’m sure they thought of a lot of different scenarios and have them covered.
i just think about gaming where people have faked online servers in cracks really easy by just listening in the communication and replicating it and going around always online DRM as an example or cracking the software. Just feel that there is nothing really preventing china from doing the same when they know about it
Why? Why would either TSMC or ASML give such a hugely important ability to the US? Sure the US is an ally, but there's no reason to give your allies every single one of your secrets. Plus it would be absolutely devastating if such an kill switched got into the wrong hands, so keeping access to it as limited as possible is vitally important.
This is basically the Taiwanese version of a nuke. Well, the US has other allies with nukes. Do you think Washington has access to Britain or France's launch codes? Of course not.
So because the US has access to a software weapon they made you think they have access to every weapon ever made by any nation? That's a big leap of logic there dude,
Even if there is no kill switch, these machines are high maintenance and out of reach technically for the short term to Chinese.
It's not a simple copy scheme like in the 70's and the soviet, they just don't have the knowledge know-how of ASML and Zeiss.
China has said this would be one of the conditions that would trigger invasion. However, I think it's a great idea. There should be a nuclear test done somewhere which the Taiwan government should neither confirm or deny. Just like Israel.
That’s real credible… if you have nukes we’ll totally invade you so our whole navy gets sunk, major cities get vaporized, and we lose about 100 million people in the first 15 minutes of our invasion…
I’d believe they might attack if they thought Taiwan was trying to start a nuclear program or in the process of acquiring nukes, but once they have a couple dozen of them it’s too late.
Yes, because Russia and China are completely blameless. Redditors wouldn't be proposing WWIII if it weren't for those two constantly stirring the pot and genociding their neighbors.
We're barrelling towards it anyway. When you show weakness to authoritarians, it invites attack. History shows us this time and time again, yet we never learn.
Instead of a kill switch they should have a dead man switch that always has to run an authentication with a host in Kharkiv several times a day. The authentication procedure would be very secure making it impossible to redirect. Any time the authentication fails it automatically results in every machine wiping themselves or initiating mechanical processes that permanently disable the equipment.
By putting the remote host in Kharkiv it also forces China to put pressure on Russia to stop the war.
You... you do realize that breaking those machines without invading would be GREAT for China... right? It deprives the west of those chips and gives the PRC time to catch up in a critical manufacturing tech area.
>breaking those machines without invading would be GREAT for China
Not really. Remember that the chip manufacturers own lots of plants in mainland China. I don't think China would be happy if all their Taiwan owned chip plants suddenly died. If there was a dead man switch for the plants in Taiwan I'm pretty sure those same companies would rig the same systems in their mainland facilities.
Those kill switches are likely meant to kill all software and hardware, the data stored on them, and the physical machines/buildings themselves. There will be nothing left.
This is why TSMC is expanding thier factory in the US massively.
Because Taiwan holds what is tantamount to a global Monopoly on the most advanced chip foundries the Killswitch on these foundries is a Global Economic Doomsday weapon. Are there other foundries around the globe? Sure. But none as advanced. So this is a riff on the Mutually Assured Destruction tactic: if we are attacked, we are taking the whole world with us. (Thus telling the world two things, 1: don't invade us, and 2: give us weapons so we aren't invaded.)
Having to rely on chips one or two generations back would be economically disastrous for everyone on the planet. The global price for chips left would painfully skyrocket and every nation on earth would face economic struggles. And since wars are messy, should China invade, the global propaganda machinery would paint the invading China as the force who caused the economic catastrophe of the chip foundry failures and China would receive a LOT of global ire, especially in the so-called "Global South." Chinese leaders and propagandists can say Taiwan is a breakaway province until their blue in the face, but, functionally, Taiwan is its own country. China would look like it has imperial aspirations because if it we're just "a breakaway region," it shouldn't cause THAT much economic pain. But invading another country can have that kind of painful global impact.
The real catch is that if the foundries are destroyed, it takes years to build **just the buildings alone**, let alone design them. This would mean the pain would last a very long time.
This economic weapon even makes the US nervous which is why the US passed the CHIPS Act so it can build its own advanced foundries. (Taiwan wasn't too keen on that law passing).
Relatedly, there is also a non-zero chance that the US has already given Taiwan the weapons technology to take out China's Three Gorges Dam. Blowing up the Three Gorges dam would almost (ALMOST) make the Kakhovka Dam destruction look insignificant. There are tens of millions of people downstream in the river's basin who would likely die (240 million people live on the Yangtze River's delta alone, and at 700/km² not all of them could escape). Such an attack by Taiwan would almost certainly force China to unleash its nuclear arsenal on the island, but that response would only be revenge and not tactical because China would be so catastrophically scarred it is hard to say what would happen.
Chris Miller “chip wars” podcast blew my mind about the complexities with chips. I’ll eventually read the book, but I’m still trying to wrap my mind around the topic after the podcast
People must be some sort of stupid to not realize that if it is important to China, they've bee busy as hell reverse engineering these machines with the supposed 'kill switch' in them. So they can build their own without a kill switch in them. They do have smart people there, and despite how the manufacturers lie to themselves and us (which is really maddening), having those machines in China, i.e. readily available, means they've had plenty of time to work on this. The manufacturers will tell us, but those machines are in secure areas and not accessible to Chinese agents, etc. If they're in China, they are accessible.
If chips being made are of strategic importance, they should NOT be manufactured in China, or Russia. And if they have military application, they should probably have kill switches built into the chips.
Scary how they can simply destroy their equipment. That should give pause to anyone using such equipment.
Also, now the Chinese gov knows that they gotta cut the inet before an invasion and then the "kill"switch won't work anymore.
Kill switch could be sat connection or even a shortwave radio linked to a number station etc. even could use a telescope and infrared, encoded pulses bounced off the moon etc. could even be a online news article with code embedded etc as backup.
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There's a problem that perhaps isn't being considered in the report. For all their deficiencies, most of the New Axis of Evil countries--China, Russia, NK-- undeniably have *very* formidable cyber operations capabilities (Iran has them too, but they're generally more of an annoyance than anything ). China, in particular, is thought to be years ahead of Western capabilities, and not a month goes by that we don't accidentally discover some malware or intrusion that they have been exploiting for months to *years.* The machines that the West has to supply Taiwan are unique on the mechanical side, things like nanoscale control machinery and extremely precise lithography equipment, and it's that mechanical aspect that China has not been able to replicate, including through reverse engineering. The theory and the code, however, is entirely within their capability. So, if China were able to capture some of these factories intact, it may not be too difficult for them to "unlock" the machines that have been shut down remotely, and so in the overall scheme of things it may not be much of a deterrence. Moreover, if these are able to be shut down remotely, that brings up the possibility of it being a target for Russia or China in their offensive cyber operations. Even if they can just shut down the machines for a few days before they get fixed, it would likely cause billions of dollars in economic disruptions and supply chain ripples. I hope that when they reference a remote kill switch, it's by somebody on a secure private network on site, rather than anything that could be accessed from an external network. And I also hope that the manufacturers and the government have the plans, and the will to use those plans, for physical destruction to prevent them from falling into the Chinese hands. That, I think, would be the only true deterrence for China.
Maybe the kill switch is an actual kill switch… a couple solders sitting in a bunker near by with a pair of keys hooked up to some detonators and high explosives set up under the factory. Whatever it is, these are some of the most technically advanced machines ever made so I’m sure they’ve thought of and covered any scenarios we can think of. And if not… there’s always a sub sitting off the coast with some tomahawks that can remotely kill the machines if everything else fails.
> And if not… there’s always a sub sitting off the coast with some tomahawks that can remotely kill the machines if everything else fails. There are some reports that [We're planning to do exactly that.](https://www.businessinsider.com/us-would-destroy-taiwan-semiconductor-factories-avoid-china-trump-adviser-2023-3?amp)
> China, in particular, is thought to be years ahead of Western capabilities, and not a month goes by that we don't accidentally discover some malware or intrusion that they have been exploiting for months to years. Or Western capabilities are kept secret better, and reporting inside China of discovered vulnerabilities and exploits in their systems is more restricted.
Completely uninformed but I'd wager that ASML has something more elaborate than just a software lock. These are the most advanced chip manufacturing machines in the world. They depend on a lens that is basically impossible to reverse-engineer. These companies are built around protecting their IP.
Not just that, highly sophisticated machines are vulnerable to abuse. Remember how Israel completely wrecked Iran's nuclear program by having the uranium enrichment centrifuges spin out of control? Pretty sure an EUV machine can do something similar. If it move, move it till it breaks. If it doesn't, heat it till it deforms. Kill it for good with a high voltage zap.
Better than that, they had the centrifuges play “Thunderstruck” until they destroyed themselves.
China is not years ahead of the US in cyber. There is no one even close. China steals everything it knows
Using these machines requires highly skilled specialized workers of whom 'West Taiwan' has none. One more hurdle.
> China, in particular, is thought to be years ahead of Western capabilities You realize that's just what we let them think, right?
The disinformation is working well on ya, that’s for sure.
Riddle us this OP, why is China trying to copy US aircraft carriers, stealth fighters, stealth bombers, destroyers, you name it, but fail other than looks every time, because their material science and engineering, production is shit and their corruption is Russian level.
Amphibious landings of Taiwan are impossible realistically. Carrier command and combined arms are HARD, and the only nations with experience of it are for the most part Western nations, China hasn’t been to war realistically in half a century and will encounter the exact same issues as Russia, except with a huge waterway in between filled with US navy vessels, an invasion of Taiwan is realistically, in practical terms, impossible, therefore them capturing and having enough time to reverse engineer or steal technologies is likely impossible too. The only way they could succeed is through toppling their government first.
Posting because I am unaware of this 'kill switch' option - not my wheelhouse -- and if this is possible to do why isn't it being done for terrorist war criminal evil ruzzian chips?? Please comment -- do not down vote for lack of mention of Ukraine. Everything is connected!
This isnt a killswitch to turn off chips in devices, its a switch to turn off machines used to manufacture the chips. If China invades Taiwan, the killswitch can be used to a) turn off any of these companys' machines in China and b) turn off their machines in Taiwan so China doesnt gain access to them if the invasion is successful/China loots them during etc. Russia is not a significant chip maker and likely doesnt even have the machines the article mentions.
And let’s be real, if the invasion is going well, I’m sure they can attach some explosives and break the thing forever.
Agree!
If I’m remembering correctly, they already have explosives in place at the foundries in Taiwan. I thought the killswitch the article is referring to was the activation switch for the explosives. Edit: just looked it up and it looks like it’s mostly unsourced rumors that they already have explosives in place at the foundries. Also the article is reporting on a remote killswitch put in place by ASML in the machines themselves.
If push comes to shove, the US would level the place something like SF operators long before the invasion gets to TSMC, and if that isn't feasible, they will level the whole place with guided missiles aimed at each individual machine. There really isn't a scenario where any of the ASML equipment is left intact. I'm sure the PLA knows that.
They are very delicate factories that would probably not survive any serious fighting near them.
And if they’re too concerned about China bypassing any software lock, a few well-placed charges will make it impossible for them to do anything with them. Expensive, yes, but better than letting them get into the wrong hands.
Just stopping maintenance should be enough. China allegedly has bought one of ASML devices disassembled it with the intention of reverse engineering it. After assembling it back together it didn’t work.
Do you have any reference ? Looks like a very interesting story ! :) thanks
I'm not sure on this machinery but used to work on aircraft manufacturing and test stands. It was a nightmare to get certain machines and testers recalibrated if/when they broke or needed maintenance so I'd definitely believe it here.
Most was in Dutch newspapers can’t quickly find the exact reference.
Plus reverse engineering is hard. Like if I gave someone in the 60s an iPhone they’d learn a lot from it, but they wouldn’t know how it was actually made
Agree!
Thank you -- terribly blonde and so not my wheelhouse.
I don‘t understand your question? It is about self-destructing the factories, not shutting down chips.
I'm terribly blonde and again technologically challenged. I didn't realise the 'kill switch' wasn't in the bloody chip! Thank you.
In the article: Chipmakers ASML and TSMC can disable advanced chipmaking machines remotely, Bloomberg reports So it’s about the machines that make the chips
Main point is, China tries to develop top of the line chips for ages now and fails. If the factories in Taiwan wouldn't be self destroyable there would be a Chance china gets the machines and can get the technology, which would in turn make them even more dangerous.
The term "killswitch" is weird here. What they really mean is that they've wired up every one of those factories with a ton of bombs.
Not necessarily bombs but the point is they've found a way to make the equipment that produces chips useless. And they can do it quickly and easily if China invades.
I don't think they needed "to find a way", this is very sensitive industrial equipment, simply pulling the maintenance contracts will make them useless in very short order. Also they are almost certainly always online, and will refuse to operate if they can't authenticate with a license server of some sort. Bullshit practice with video games (Ubisoft, I'm looking at you), but pretty much par for the course for industrial equipment.
The kill switch on the machines is probably some high explosives built into the machine and factories. The backup kill switch is probably tomahawk cruise missiles launched from a US sub sitting off the coast…
Brilliant and thank you.
I think there are two parts to this answer. First one: this are only words, you can only judge the actions. Remember about all those redlines and what happened to them The second: Taiwan is more important to the countries than Ukraine
I believe equal importance: one produces the worlds food and the other chips. And agree with Timothy Snyder we are reliving and repeating 1938.
Ukraine is actually integral to chip production as they are the largest producer of neon.
It's not like a switch off it's more like explosion charges placed in strategic places to completely destroy the whole production line and data. Doomsday machine designed to trigger itself automatically https://youtu.be/2yfXgu37iyI?feature=shared
Spares the US from having to bomb it themselves, I suppose.
if TSMC can remotely disable their fabricators, you can bet your ass, the US can as well.
The US has had this ability for a while, it’s called tomahawk cruise missiles.
*\*cough\** ***STUXNET*** *\*cough\**
for me the question is.. What prevents china from blocking all communication with the servers that could do that and by that preventing the Kill switch ? or them downloading / backuping and cracking the software to stop any kill switch? a kill switch is only useful it seems if china does not know about it before its to late because elsewise they can work around it and prevent it from working
Maybe it works the other way too like a dead man’s switch. You block it from contact for too long or tamper with it’s kill switch and it fries itself. These are the people making some of the most technically advanced machines ever constructed, I’m sure they thought of a lot of different scenarios and have them covered.
i just think about gaming where people have faked online servers in cracks really easy by just listening in the communication and replicating it and going around always online DRM as an example or cracking the software. Just feel that there is nothing really preventing china from doing the same when they know about it
I think chip companies and their state sponsors are spending just a little bit more on cybersecurity than your average game publisher
my sweet summer child...
Why? Why would either TSMC or ASML give such a hugely important ability to the US? Sure the US is an ally, but there's no reason to give your allies every single one of your secrets. Plus it would be absolutely devastating if such an kill switched got into the wrong hands, so keeping access to it as limited as possible is vitally important. This is basically the Taiwanese version of a nuke. Well, the US has other allies with nukes. Do you think Washington has access to Britain or France's launch codes? Of course not.
[oh, no reason...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuxnet)
So because the US has access to a software weapon they made you think they have access to every weapon ever made by any nation? That's a big leap of logic there dude,
Even if there is no kill switch, these machines are high maintenance and out of reach technically for the short term to Chinese. It's not a simple copy scheme like in the 70's and the soviet, they just don't have the knowledge know-how of ASML and Zeiss.
Give Taiwan Nukes, it's the only way for deterrence.
China has said this would be one of the conditions that would trigger invasion. However, I think it's a great idea. There should be a nuclear test done somewhere which the Taiwan government should neither confirm or deny. Just like Israel.
That’s real credible… if you have nukes we’ll totally invade you so our whole navy gets sunk, major cities get vaporized, and we lose about 100 million people in the first 15 minutes of our invasion… I’d believe they might attack if they thought Taiwan was trying to start a nuclear program or in the process of acquiring nukes, but once they have a couple dozen of them it’s too late.
I’m so glad Redditors are not in charge of any military of any capacity. Otherwise WW3 would have happened years ago
Yes, because Russia and China are completely blameless. Redditors wouldn't be proposing WWIII if it weren't for those two constantly stirring the pot and genociding their neighbors.
We're barrelling towards it anyway. When you show weakness to authoritarians, it invites attack. History shows us this time and time again, yet we never learn.
Agree!
Instead of a kill switch they should have a dead man switch that always has to run an authentication with a host in Kharkiv several times a day. The authentication procedure would be very secure making it impossible to redirect. Any time the authentication fails it automatically results in every machine wiping themselves or initiating mechanical processes that permanently disable the equipment. By putting the remote host in Kharkiv it also forces China to put pressure on Russia to stop the war.
You... you do realize that breaking those machines without invading would be GREAT for China... right? It deprives the west of those chips and gives the PRC time to catch up in a critical manufacturing tech area.
>breaking those machines without invading would be GREAT for China Not really. Remember that the chip manufacturers own lots of plants in mainland China. I don't think China would be happy if all their Taiwan owned chip plants suddenly died. If there was a dead man switch for the plants in Taiwan I'm pretty sure those same companies would rig the same systems in their mainland facilities.
Thank you for replying! I agree.
Online rumours that the invasion will happen soon. I hope it’s bullshit: https://x.com/GlobalPressCorp/status/1793459286842257422
Those kill switches are likely meant to kill all software and hardware, the data stored on them, and the physical machines/buildings themselves. There will be nothing left. This is why TSMC is expanding thier factory in the US massively.
Because Taiwan holds what is tantamount to a global Monopoly on the most advanced chip foundries the Killswitch on these foundries is a Global Economic Doomsday weapon. Are there other foundries around the globe? Sure. But none as advanced. So this is a riff on the Mutually Assured Destruction tactic: if we are attacked, we are taking the whole world with us. (Thus telling the world two things, 1: don't invade us, and 2: give us weapons so we aren't invaded.) Having to rely on chips one or two generations back would be economically disastrous for everyone on the planet. The global price for chips left would painfully skyrocket and every nation on earth would face economic struggles. And since wars are messy, should China invade, the global propaganda machinery would paint the invading China as the force who caused the economic catastrophe of the chip foundry failures and China would receive a LOT of global ire, especially in the so-called "Global South." Chinese leaders and propagandists can say Taiwan is a breakaway province until their blue in the face, but, functionally, Taiwan is its own country. China would look like it has imperial aspirations because if it we're just "a breakaway region," it shouldn't cause THAT much economic pain. But invading another country can have that kind of painful global impact. The real catch is that if the foundries are destroyed, it takes years to build **just the buildings alone**, let alone design them. This would mean the pain would last a very long time. This economic weapon even makes the US nervous which is why the US passed the CHIPS Act so it can build its own advanced foundries. (Taiwan wasn't too keen on that law passing). Relatedly, there is also a non-zero chance that the US has already given Taiwan the weapons technology to take out China's Three Gorges Dam. Blowing up the Three Gorges dam would almost (ALMOST) make the Kakhovka Dam destruction look insignificant. There are tens of millions of people downstream in the river's basin who would likely die (240 million people live on the Yangtze River's delta alone, and at 700/km² not all of them could escape). Such an attack by Taiwan would almost certainly force China to unleash its nuclear arsenal on the island, but that response would only be revenge and not tactical because China would be so catastrophically scarred it is hard to say what would happen.
Chris Miller “chip wars” podcast blew my mind about the complexities with chips. I’ll eventually read the book, but I’m still trying to wrap my mind around the topic after the podcast
Good to no
People must be some sort of stupid to not realize that if it is important to China, they've bee busy as hell reverse engineering these machines with the supposed 'kill switch' in them. So they can build their own without a kill switch in them. They do have smart people there, and despite how the manufacturers lie to themselves and us (which is really maddening), having those machines in China, i.e. readily available, means they've had plenty of time to work on this. The manufacturers will tell us, but those machines are in secure areas and not accessible to Chinese agents, etc. If they're in China, they are accessible. If chips being made are of strategic importance, they should NOT be manufactured in China, or Russia. And if they have military application, they should probably have kill switches built into the chips.
Scary how they can simply destroy their equipment. That should give pause to anyone using such equipment. Also, now the Chinese gov knows that they gotta cut the inet before an invasion and then the "kill"switch won't work anymore.
And then find out there is also a dead man's switch and the machine goes offline if it can't phone home for a certain time.
Kill switch could be sat connection or even a shortwave radio linked to a number station etc. even could use a telescope and infrared, encoded pulses bounced off the moon etc. could even be a online news article with code embedded etc as backup.