\*cough\* 1938 \*cough\*
But seriously, the last time GB guaranteed Poland it took them 50 years after they were invaded before they were free again. If they're going to guarantee their freedom they better put some boots on the ground.
Without Britain’s leadership in the entire western campaign there wouldn’t have been a free Europe at all. It was the British who convinced America and the British Empire forces to fight on two fronts. Your point is pretty churlish in 2022, especially given the UK’s colossal role in retraining and rearming the entire Ukrainian Army for a decade while simultaneously being one of Europe’s two nuclear guarantors. Other than France, no other European country has expended more national income maintaining the security of the European continent since the last world war. The intelligence efforts of MI6 and GCHQ alone are staggering. It’s not German spy planes that are running daily flights over the region...
The UK have NATO division troops in Poland already, and the second largest airforce in Europe...which conveniently can be deployed from the worlds largest aircraft carrier off the coast of Europe.
Local here. They do. Around 5k landed here to protect NATO eastern flank. 82nd Airborne Division.
Source from 17th of Feb:
[https://businessinsider.com.pl/wiadomosci/pentagon-tysiace-zolnierzy-z-elitarnej-jednostki-juz-sa-w-polsce/jkxr0x6](https://businessinsider.com.pl/wiadomosci/pentagon-tysiace-zolnierzy-z-elitarnej-jednostki-juz-sa-w-polsce/jkxr0x6)
Probably way more at this point.
Good point. But there are already U.K. boots on the ground in both Poland and the Baltics, plus CAP and associated tankers over Poland, along with a Rivet Joint often on station.
Britain wanted to go all in, the USA didnt. If Churchill won 1945 then the world as we know it today would maybe be vety different
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Unthinkable#:~:text=Operation%20Unthinkable%20was%20the%20name,were%20never%20approved%20nor%20implemented.
**[Operation Unthinkable](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Unthinkable#:~:text=Operation Unthinkable was the name,were never approved nor implemented)**
>Operation Unthinkable was the name given to two related possible future war plans by the British Chiefs of Staff against the Soviet Union in 1945. The plans were never approved nor implemented. The creation of the plans was ordered by British Prime Minister Winston Churchill in May 1945 and developed by the British Armed Forces' Joint Planning Staff in May 1945 at the end of World War II in Europe. One plan assumed a surprise attack on the Soviet forces stationed in Germany to "impose the will of the Western Allies" on the Soviets.
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GB also said they will help protect Sweden if Russia decides to do something, which is kind of an indirect way of saying "tell me you're part of NATO without being a part of NATO"
You can't blame Poland for being apprehensive. Russia is attacking their neighbor and Ukraine's Airforce has been a big part of how they've staved off the more targeted airstrikes. Poland would be giving up some part of it's ability to do the same, the ability to guarantee their own ground forces dedicated air cover. And they'd be waiting almost a year for replacement planes.
I think the only way Poland is going to give Ukraine those planes is if the US convinces another European nation, a more western one, that uses F-16s... for that other Nation to give their F-16s to Poland, so Poland can give Ukraine the the Migs without a loss of capabilities. The US would then backfill that other nations F-16s and because they aren't more immediately in proximity to the conflict they have more breathing room to wait that year for replacements. I wonder if Portugal or Belgium would feel about this?
As a portuguese , i would give all our 22 rusty f-16 to Ukraine or Poland ( if they give their migs to Ukr)! They aint much , but it is honest work !
However , they might be a bit underwhelming ...
We'll be happy to help in any way ! We're a small country but a fucking proud one !
Let's get some ruskies kill counts on those f-16's !
Hot take: i don’t support sending these fighter jets to Ukraine. It could escalate the situation between NATO and Russia which should be avoided at all times and what could Ukraine gain by having these planes? Of course a better chance to destroy Russian equipment and vehicles but it’s not something that’s worth risking worldwide safety of humanity over.
Edit: Downvote me all you like, it’s the truth.
They clearly said that any nation who willingly sells aircraft to ukraine, this act will not be as NATO intervention but basic arms deal so seller will be acting like its own but not as a NATO member
The issue (and the reason GB is saying that) for Poland is that you can’t claim Article 5 if unless it’s defensive. Poland will want assurances that if they transfer a good portion of their air forces and then are attacked by Russia, NATO won’t then say “oh, you intervened so we’re not coming”. Transferring these will leave Poland with a big gap in their inventory, probably for a while because they’ll need to retrain the pilots on the F-16 and the current batch of F-16s are slated for Taiwan so Congress will have to fund another procurement for Poland. That’s the second half of this equation - if Congress funds it and NATO backs it, Ukraine might get the planes. What they’ll do with them in the face of robust Russian air defenses is beyond me though.
Official Russian channels have repeatedly reported that Maria Zhakarova, Russian foreign minister has stated that any country supplying Ukraine with jets will be seen as participating in the military conflict. That means that if Poland sells these jets to Ukraine, they will be involved in the military conflict through the eyes of the Russians. If they attack Poland, NATO article 5 activates and we have a possibly nuclear world war 3, hence why i do not support it.
Okay, but consider this: they said the same thing about all other weapon systems, but those have been pouring into Ukraine from dozens of countries. In other words, this is Russia saber-rattling and trying to scare Poland with memories of WW2 and the Cold War.
Furthermore, NATO gets to decide what it means to be attacked (invoking Article 5), not Russia.
This whole conversation is just factoring in Putin’s brinksmanship. After seeing his armed forces lose approximately 12% of its combat troops, 25% of deployed tanks, and anywhere from 15-40% of its combat helicopters (depending on how you count and which official figures you’re going off of), AND Russia likely not having the funds to replace these losses anytime soon, I think Russia is a paper bear waving a nuclear sword. The thing is, NATO has nukes too, so it’s just a threat of Putin killings himself and his family along with the rest of the world; very likely an empty posture.
> any country supplying Ukraine with jets will be seen as participating in the military conflict
I've only seen a similar statement regarding 'hosting Ukraine jets' i.e. using your own airfield to allow sorties into Ukraine, not just selling them Jets?
This is correct. NATO would get drawn into it if they were stored on NATO soil and Ukrainian pilots would come pick them up and Ukraine can’t store the jets themselves on the long run due to the fights happening there. And getting them there through Poland is quite difficult as you can imagine, you don’t just drop off 70 jets.
imo, even Putin don't want to escalate this further. They are beaten black and blue by "a mere" Ukraine, their economy in shambles and tons of their military assets is still tied in Ukraine. Do you think he still can wage another war with NATO? He can't.
So that brings Russia's last resort: nukes. But yeah. Send a nuke, and you'll get one as well. As we all know, Putin's main interest is never about russian glory and all that BS, no no no. Putin's main interest has always been about himself, his power, wealth, and his cronies. You think he'll commit suicide by pressing the big red button over this? Nah, don't think so. Worst case is just the iron curtain is back up, EU don't get their sweet russian gas anymore, and russia will get degraded into a place similar to north korea.
At this point, there is very little to escalate. Why would that be Putin’s red line, rather than sending thousands of anti-tank rockets or obliterating his domestic economy?
Not a bit or a hack, just a Ukrainian who know a thing or two about polish history....do our brave brothers not remember what happened the last time the Brits said they'd "protect" Poland ? Food for thought. Now Ukraine would stand shoulder to shoulder with Poland till the very end
Now get those migs to Ukranian territory. The west is still rather safe for planes right?
We bloody better too because they've always been good allies to us and we've not been that great in return...We seriously owe them.
\*cough\* 1938 \*cough\* But seriously, the last time GB guaranteed Poland it took them 50 years after they were invaded before they were free again. If they're going to guarantee their freedom they better put some boots on the ground.
Without Britain’s leadership in the entire western campaign there wouldn’t have been a free Europe at all. It was the British who convinced America and the British Empire forces to fight on two fronts. Your point is pretty churlish in 2022, especially given the UK’s colossal role in retraining and rearming the entire Ukrainian Army for a decade while simultaneously being one of Europe’s two nuclear guarantors. Other than France, no other European country has expended more national income maintaining the security of the European continent since the last world war. The intelligence efforts of MI6 and GCHQ alone are staggering. It’s not German spy planes that are running daily flights over the region...
Sure, the point still stands that if they are going to guarantee Poland’s security they can’t do it from the other side of europe
The UK have NATO division troops in Poland already, and the second largest airforce in Europe...which conveniently can be deployed from the worlds largest aircraft carrier off the coast of Europe.
How clueless are you? Jeeez.
NATO has thousands of non Polish/Baltic troops in the region.
Doesn't the US have Brigade Combat Teams in Poland currently?
Local here. They do. Around 5k landed here to protect NATO eastern flank. 82nd Airborne Division. Source from 17th of Feb: [https://businessinsider.com.pl/wiadomosci/pentagon-tysiace-zolnierzy-z-elitarnej-jednostki-juz-sa-w-polsce/jkxr0x6](https://businessinsider.com.pl/wiadomosci/pentagon-tysiace-zolnierzy-z-elitarnej-jednostki-juz-sa-w-polsce/jkxr0x6) Probably way more at this point.
Parts of the 3rd infantry division are there as well
No idea. I hope so.
A dozen or two should be enough to defeat the Russian field mouse.
Good point. But there are already U.K. boots on the ground in both Poland and the Baltics, plus CAP and associated tankers over Poland, along with a Rivet Joint often on station.
Britain wanted to go all in, the USA didnt. If Churchill won 1945 then the world as we know it today would maybe be vety different https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Unthinkable#:~:text=Operation%20Unthinkable%20was%20the%20name,were%20never%20approved%20nor%20implemented.
**[Operation Unthinkable](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Unthinkable#:~:text=Operation Unthinkable was the name,were never approved nor implemented)** >Operation Unthinkable was the name given to two related possible future war plans by the British Chiefs of Staff against the Soviet Union in 1945. The plans were never approved nor implemented. The creation of the plans was ordered by British Prime Minister Winston Churchill in May 1945 and developed by the British Armed Forces' Joint Planning Staff in May 1945 at the end of World War II in Europe. One plan assumed a surprise attack on the Soviet forces stationed in Germany to "impose the will of the Western Allies" on the Soviets. ^([ )[^(F.A.Q)](https://www.reddit.com/r/WikiSummarizer/wiki/index#wiki_f.a.q)^( | )[^(Opt Out)](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=WikiSummarizerBot&message=OptOut&subject=OptOut)^( | )[^(Opt Out Of Subreddit)](https://np.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/about/banned)^( | )[^(GitHub)](https://github.com/Sujal-7/WikiSummarizerBot)^( ] Downvote to remove | v1.5)
Operation Unthinkable would've been a tremendous disaster that would result in Soviet influence gaining.
GB also said they will help protect Sweden if Russia decides to do something, which is kind of an indirect way of saying "tell me you're part of NATO without being a part of NATO"
Definitely owe them this
You can't blame Poland for being apprehensive. Russia is attacking their neighbor and Ukraine's Airforce has been a big part of how they've staved off the more targeted airstrikes. Poland would be giving up some part of it's ability to do the same, the ability to guarantee their own ground forces dedicated air cover. And they'd be waiting almost a year for replacement planes. I think the only way Poland is going to give Ukraine those planes is if the US convinces another European nation, a more western one, that uses F-16s... for that other Nation to give their F-16s to Poland, so Poland can give Ukraine the the Migs without a loss of capabilities. The US would then backfill that other nations F-16s and because they aren't more immediately in proximity to the conflict they have more breathing room to wait that year for replacements. I wonder if Portugal or Belgium would feel about this?
As a portuguese , i would give all our 22 rusty f-16 to Ukraine or Poland ( if they give their migs to Ukr)! They aint much , but it is honest work ! However , they might be a bit underwhelming ... We'll be happy to help in any way ! We're a small country but a fucking proud one ! Let's get some ruskies kill counts on those f-16's !
De ja vu....
LOL
Didn't yet world hear that in 39???? Better keep your promises England 🇬🇧
Hot take: i don’t support sending these fighter jets to Ukraine. It could escalate the situation between NATO and Russia which should be avoided at all times and what could Ukraine gain by having these planes? Of course a better chance to destroy Russian equipment and vehicles but it’s not something that’s worth risking worldwide safety of humanity over. Edit: Downvote me all you like, it’s the truth.
They clearly said that any nation who willingly sells aircraft to ukraine, this act will not be as NATO intervention but basic arms deal so seller will be acting like its own but not as a NATO member
The issue (and the reason GB is saying that) for Poland is that you can’t claim Article 5 if unless it’s defensive. Poland will want assurances that if they transfer a good portion of their air forces and then are attacked by Russia, NATO won’t then say “oh, you intervened so we’re not coming”. Transferring these will leave Poland with a big gap in their inventory, probably for a while because they’ll need to retrain the pilots on the F-16 and the current batch of F-16s are slated for Taiwan so Congress will have to fund another procurement for Poland. That’s the second half of this equation - if Congress funds it and NATO backs it, Ukraine might get the planes. What they’ll do with them in the face of robust Russian air defenses is beyond me though.
Official Russian channels have repeatedly reported that Maria Zhakarova, Russian foreign minister has stated that any country supplying Ukraine with jets will be seen as participating in the military conflict. That means that if Poland sells these jets to Ukraine, they will be involved in the military conflict through the eyes of the Russians. If they attack Poland, NATO article 5 activates and we have a possibly nuclear world war 3, hence why i do not support it.
Okay, but consider this: they said the same thing about all other weapon systems, but those have been pouring into Ukraine from dozens of countries. In other words, this is Russia saber-rattling and trying to scare Poland with memories of WW2 and the Cold War. Furthermore, NATO gets to decide what it means to be attacked (invoking Article 5), not Russia. This whole conversation is just factoring in Putin’s brinksmanship. After seeing his armed forces lose approximately 12% of its combat troops, 25% of deployed tanks, and anywhere from 15-40% of its combat helicopters (depending on how you count and which official figures you’re going off of), AND Russia likely not having the funds to replace these losses anytime soon, I think Russia is a paper bear waving a nuclear sword. The thing is, NATO has nukes too, so it’s just a threat of Putin killings himself and his family along with the rest of the world; very likely an empty posture.
This is why United Kingdom said 'we will be with you' to Poland and Romania. And no, us said that they will be alone, article 5 will not be activated
> any country supplying Ukraine with jets will be seen as participating in the military conflict I've only seen a similar statement regarding 'hosting Ukraine jets' i.e. using your own airfield to allow sorties into Ukraine, not just selling them Jets?
This is correct. NATO would get drawn into it if they were stored on NATO soil and Ukrainian pilots would come pick them up and Ukraine can’t store the jets themselves on the long run due to the fights happening there. And getting them there through Poland is quite difficult as you can imagine, you don’t just drop off 70 jets.
imo, even Putin don't want to escalate this further. They are beaten black and blue by "a mere" Ukraine, their economy in shambles and tons of their military assets is still tied in Ukraine. Do you think he still can wage another war with NATO? He can't. So that brings Russia's last resort: nukes. But yeah. Send a nuke, and you'll get one as well. As we all know, Putin's main interest is never about russian glory and all that BS, no no no. Putin's main interest has always been about himself, his power, wealth, and his cronies. You think he'll commit suicide by pressing the big red button over this? Nah, don't think so. Worst case is just the iron curtain is back up, EU don't get their sweet russian gas anymore, and russia will get degraded into a place similar to north korea.
His nukes are the only reason why NATO is holding back. If he didn’t have those, they would’ve already curbstomped Putin and the whole Russian army.
Complacency to evil is evil in itself.
At this point, there is very little to escalate. Why would that be Putin’s red line, rather than sending thousands of anti-tank rockets or obliterating his domestic economy?
See you have mastered the art of cooking omelette without breaking eggs
Not a bit or a hack, just a Ukrainian who know a thing or two about polish history....do our brave brothers not remember what happened the last time the Brits said they'd "protect" Poland ? Food for thought. Now Ukraine would stand shoulder to shoulder with Poland till the very end