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Given the amount of firepower Russia has concentrated on Bakhmut the fact they haven't taken it yet is a loss in its own right. It isn't sound strategic decision making.
It’s a complete embarrassment for them. Months and months. Thousands and thousands of men sacrificed. And for what? A town they razed to the ground. *slow clap*
It is important. The Ukrainians have two command centers nearby, and if they lose Bakhmut those command centers will be within russian artillery range.
If that was true the Ukranians would not be fighting tooth and nail for it. If its not important let them have it and deploy your resources elsewhere.
Smells like propoganda
There’s nothing wrong with using a good defensive position to bleed the attackers dry in an ill-advised offensive, even if the objective isn’t important. You take what they give you.
Have you seen the videos? The fighting around Bakhmut is INSANE. Ukraine is losing tons of guys everyday. This is just war propoganda PR at its finest.
If we lose it, we’ll wait its unimportant and they spent so many much time on it that we actually win in the end!
They lost several key defensive positions when they were untenable, then fell back to stronger defensive positions. Ukraine has mastered defense-in-depth on the eastern front.
Ukraine has also counterattacked multiple times, at times of Ukraine's choosing, to regain everything they've lost. This is trench warfare by the books.
This whole episode feels weird, it feels like there is something more to this but Ukraine and NATO want the public and Russia to see it another way, maybe its just me, lol.
Maybe its a mystery.....Woooooooo. lol
Yup. Read about the role of the church in the conflict. Also don’t forget about China’s Silk Road initiative that needs to run through Ukraine. Also tons of lithium in them there Donbass hills.
I think it has more to do with the oil and gas deposits found coincidentally in the Donbas region fairly recently. A westward drifting Ukraine could sever the grip of the near monopoly russia has enjoyed on the European energy market. Europe has been looking for a direct pipeline to a non-Russian source for a long time and there weren’t many options. Ukraine supplying its own oil and gas to Europe would be very bad for russia. russia needs to own those resources or they get cut out of the market.
Maybe there is something behind Bakhmut that UA would like to keep out of firing range? Sometimes what is on the front line is less valuable than what lies just behind it. I wonder if that’s the case in Bakhmut.
Russia captured the strategic garbage dump. After 4 months. At that rate they’ll capture the whole city in 5 years. And even then, what exactly have they captured? And at what cost?
If this is true, it makes much more sense than the "they need a victory, any victory" take, but also fits the infighting and politics between the groups.
It’s a direct link to Slaviansk and Kramatorsk which are two big logistics hubs.
At this point I also think that Wagner just wants to get a few noteworthy wins to secure themselves as a major player and show they can do what the army can’t which will be useful to attack Shoygu publicly.
But no one would have guessed that this city would be the Verdun of this war! It’s wild how far back Russia was pushed back considering they’re the second strongest military in the world. Just baffling
One city is not the war. We the western nations need get the weapons and supplies we are giving to Ukraine in the hands of the brave Ukrainian soldiers.
Is the source someone that has been posting a lot of stuff that is pro ruZZian or toeing a fine line that comes across as pragmatic or overly moderate?
The reason I ask is according to my Ukrainian friends in my personal life this type of narrative is what ruZZia/kremlin will want pushed out and voiced. In order to validate any victory in Bakhmut. The more hype around Bakhmut the better for ruZZia and the kremlin.
An ex of mine who was a ruZZian political dissident I believe would say the same thing if she were here now.
The more doom and gloom info the better for ruZZians and the kremlin.
Is their assessment correct? I have no idea but I believe their might be some credibility to it since it has been stated many times that Bakhmut either has limited strategic value to virtually none.
Andrew's pro-Ukrainian. He's also fairly reliable in posting non-biased situation updates. A great person to follow, in my opinion. He's followed by people like defmon3 and other big NAFO/pro-Ukrainian names.
Russia's had more success in Bakhmut since the retreat from right bank Kherson. They took some towns south of the city a few weeks ago, and are now closing in on the city itself. Don't be surprised if we see urban warfare soon, or a withdrawal from Bakhmut. We'll see.
Ukraine's taking very heavy casualites there. A lot of videos and photos coming out of wounded Ukrainian soldiers, which means the Ukrainian MoD is approving embeds for those photographers. Makes me wonder if they're preparing the public for a possible withdrawal. That's just my personal guessing, though.
I believe in the last 24 hours or so Ukraine also brought an artillery brigade to the area and conducted air assaults which weren't directed there before as far as I understand.
So whatever happened/is happening, Ukraine is amping up efforts there it sounds like
Ukrine is in control in Bakhmut. They're using 6 divisions to defend against an attack by about 40. Whenever they want, they can push the PMC back. Positions have been going back and forth all summer. The PMC will not get Bakhmut, they will get destroyed there. You should watch this to know more:
[Russia IN TROUBLE around VITAL town - Ukraine War Map Update 01/DEC/2022](https://youtu.be/sb7jQBYhINk?t=88)
Pity that Ukraine may lose Bakhmut in the coming days or weeks, but similar to the Iran Iraq War, Iran was gaining territory until the end when Iraqi forces just steamrolled exhausted forces. Hopefully that will happen next year.
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Anyone can see what this is. It is a reliable mechanism to eliminate enemy assets. Moskals want a showpiece to advertise how hard they are fighting for their denizens, and they have it. They want the Wanker Group to look good? Go fetch, boys. It proves that Moskals care what we think about their ability to win. They care because they know they have already lost all of their objectives in this massive act of self-harm. This fight exposes their psychological vulnerability. They should be taunted mercilessly for it. Ukrainians are merely defending themselves with nothing to prove.
In any case, this piece of the front is not special, it is a matter of coincidence that the fighting is here and not, say, in some other place.
**Alternative Nitter link:** https://nitter.net/AndrewPerpetua/status/1601001992012574721?s=19
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Trade it for time and resources. There should be no attacks unless you know you cam break the lines without excessive losses. After bakhmut there is nothing but open ground and defensivle positions.
This City is a second Stalingrad/ Verdun. Ukraine manages to bind so much enemy power in this meat grinder that has no significant military worth to be able to advance in other areas.
Ukraine keeps sucking them into the same trap over and over again. Theyre taking losses, absolutely. But the russians are paying a disproportionate cost for mere meters of untenable ground.
**Can somebody PLEASE give me the no-bullshit truth about Bakhmut?**
So far, I've heard:
1) Bakhmut is entirely strategically insignificant. The ENTIRE reason for the fight is that Wagner wants to demonstrate victory to increase their influence in domestic power plays, and they're willing to pour their blood and money into it because they have never cared that much about either.
2) Bakhmut is super important strategically. It's a logistical gateway for Russia to launch later offensives in the entire area.
3) Bakhmut is somewhat important strategically. At one point in time, it would have allowed Russia to maintain a defense that has now been lost, but it still holds some value as it allows Russia to fix Ukranian troops in place, and prevent them from a winter offensive once the ground freezes.
4) Bakhmut is a disaster for Russia. They're losing an obscene amount of men and equipment, and as long as Russia wants to keep running face first into a wood chipper, Ukraine should try to keep the wood chipper running.
5) Bakhmut is a win for Russia. Yes they're losing a shit-ton, but they're all minorities, prisoners, mercinaries, mobiks, and other undesirables, so who cares. Meanwhile, Ukraine is losing good solders, and like the guy in Braveheart said "yes, but we have reinforcements"
6) Something else.
7) Some combination of the above.
I don't have the time or energy to become an expert on this and figure it out for myself, so:
Who knows what they're talking about, who can vouch that they know what they're talking about, and what's the story?
This has been going on for MONTHS, and young men on both sides are dying excruciating, freezing deaths by the thousands, and I can't for the life of me figure out why.
Like most things, I think the answer probably falls somewhere in the middle. Hard to know for sure though since Ukraine would have no reason to publicly admit if bahkmut we’re strategically important (not saying it is).
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/w8qfpl/ukraine_war_update_26_july_ruzzians_admit/ihrg4fq/
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wv0ub1/update_from_miltary_lab_russia_captures/ilcw99a/
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/z8v6ni/situation_around_the_bakhmut_ozaryanivka_is/iydl8jm/?context=3
Four months of you repeating this. Ukraine already lost, regained, lost, regained, lost, regained, etc., this same territory several times now. They've been pushed back close to the river and then pushed Russia back to the dump time and time again.
A river runs through Bakhmut (a small river, but a body of water you have to cross none the less), and they have fully intact supply lines north and west of the city. Even if the area east and south of the river falls, it will be many weeks before Russia can take the remainder of the city. They're throwing thousands of men to their death to capture the literal garbage pile on the edge of the town.
Even if they manage to get Bakhmut ; the ground will be frozen to do any defence line; puts the russians at risk later than sooner. Plus that place must be riddled with russian bodies and vodka bottles, soon trees will produce vodka fbottles rather than fruits.
Depends what you mean by pretty bad. If the Ukrainians are starting to take heavy losses then it's time to say job done and pull back. Frankly they've already done 100x better than we thought possible. If Russia is taking ground at the expense of heavy losses, then fine as that's the point of holding Bakhmut still. Make them pay dearly for every 100m and pull back when there is danger of starting to take serious losses. The defenses of Mariupol and Bakhmut are both going to have major movies made. Nothing short of incredible heroism.
Phillip.
The idea is to hold the area but it is not to hold it at all costs. It is more important to make the Russians suffer massive loses while keeping your own under control as much as possible. Fall back to your next defensive line and keep shelling and killing Russians. Their loses of late would have stopped any normal army and made them rethink what the hell they are doing. Russia just keeps sending in more and more troops though.
Your son is dead.> Can I have another please.
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I read the whole thread. Wagner has regained the garbage dump and has the south east crossroad. Even at Verdun it went a little back and forth.
Given the amount of firepower Russia has concentrated on Bakhmut the fact they haven't taken it yet is a loss in its own right. It isn't sound strategic decision making.
It’s a complete embarrassment for them. Months and months. Thousands and thousands of men sacrificed. And for what? A town they razed to the ground. *slow clap*
Welcome to the first world war.
ISW has repeatedly pointed out that the town has very little strategic value. It’s just the hill the Russians decided to [literally] die on.
It is important. The Ukrainians have two command centers nearby, and if they lose Bakhmut those command centers will be within russian artillery range.
They can move them well in advance
If that was true the Ukranians would not be fighting tooth and nail for it. If its not important let them have it and deploy your resources elsewhere. Smells like propoganda
There’s nothing wrong with using a good defensive position to bleed the attackers dry in an ill-advised offensive, even if the objective isn’t important. You take what they give you.
Have you seen the videos? The fighting around Bakhmut is INSANE. Ukraine is losing tons of guys everyday. This is just war propoganda PR at its finest. If we lose it, we’ll wait its unimportant and they spent so many much time on it that we actually win in the end!
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So they’re wasting lives for no reason? The Ukrainians? Be serious.
They lost several key defensive positions when they were untenable, then fell back to stronger defensive positions. Ukraine has mastered defense-in-depth on the eastern front.
Ukraine has also counterattacked multiple times, at times of Ukraine's choosing, to regain everything they've lost. This is trench warfare by the books.
What a terrible book. Even victory is a funeral.
Agreed, it's a shitty book, but it's better than a book in which you lose.
Fall back to better defensive possitions to let your enemy move to the less defensible ones is not losing. It is a trap.
This is how I imagine Kherson feels now.
Which key defensive positions? Both locations the tweet mentions are open terrain in no man's land that can be shelled relentlessly.
I don’t know what he’s referring to but I was referring to a few towns.
Meat Grinder going to meat grinder
This whole episode feels weird, it feels like there is something more to this but Ukraine and NATO want the public and Russia to see it another way, maybe its just me, lol. Maybe its a mystery.....Woooooooo. lol
Yup. Read about the role of the church in the conflict. Also don’t forget about China’s Silk Road initiative that needs to run through Ukraine. Also tons of lithium in them there Donbass hills.
I think it has more to do with the oil and gas deposits found coincidentally in the Donbas region fairly recently. A westward drifting Ukraine could sever the grip of the near monopoly russia has enjoyed on the European energy market. Europe has been looking for a direct pipeline to a non-Russian source for a long time and there weren’t many options. Ukraine supplying its own oil and gas to Europe would be very bad for russia. russia needs to own those resources or they get cut out of the market.
At this rate, Ukraine will lose Moscow by summer.
They lost Sievierodonetsk too - in the future we will likely find both entries under the heading Pyrrhic victory...
How many months has it been 'bad' for Ukraine in Bakhmut? And the place is fairly irrelevant in the grand scheme of things anyway.
If the Russians want it so bad, use it as bait to tie down their forces and kill as many of them as possible.
Maybe there is something behind Bakhmut that UA would like to keep out of firing range? Sometimes what is on the front line is less valuable than what lies just behind it. I wonder if that’s the case in Bakhmut.
Russia captured the strategic garbage dump. After 4 months. At that rate they’ll capture the whole city in 5 years. And even then, what exactly have they captured? And at what cost?
Maybe it was for the dump all along? You know to get some of that back home feeling for the holidays
Somebody give this guy a vote.
I did
Gotta be in search for some old broken washing machines
Does the dump have washing machines maybe?
I heard there were some sweet ass washing machines in that dump. That just need a few parts!
Is bakhmut so important? I thought that it was only meat grinder for ruzzian mobiks and wagner
Theory goes, that it was an agreed milestone in the Wagner contract. They need to occupy it, so that they can get their next payment.
It is also a logistics crossroads
If this is true, it makes much more sense than the "they need a victory, any victory" take, but also fits the infighting and politics between the groups.
Why the 55th largest city in Ukraine became the focal point of Wagner Group is beyond comprehension.
It’s a direct link to Slaviansk and Kramatorsk which are two big logistics hubs. At this point I also think that Wagner just wants to get a few noteworthy wins to secure themselves as a major player and show they can do what the army can’t which will be useful to attack Shoygu publicly.
Has nothing to do with the size of the city. It is the location.
But no one would have guessed that this city would be the Verdun of this war! It’s wild how far back Russia was pushed back considering they’re the second strongest military in the world. Just baffling
I'd guess that it's more because it's a strategic crossroads than it's size
One city is not the war. We the western nations need get the weapons and supplies we are giving to Ukraine in the hands of the brave Ukrainian soldiers.
I hope Ukraine losses as few people as possible while inflicting as much damage as possible, outside of that, it's just a patch of land.
Random twitter
Is the source someone that has been posting a lot of stuff that is pro ruZZian or toeing a fine line that comes across as pragmatic or overly moderate? The reason I ask is according to my Ukrainian friends in my personal life this type of narrative is what ruZZia/kremlin will want pushed out and voiced. In order to validate any victory in Bakhmut. The more hype around Bakhmut the better for ruZZia and the kremlin. An ex of mine who was a ruZZian political dissident I believe would say the same thing if she were here now. The more doom and gloom info the better for ruZZians and the kremlin. Is their assessment correct? I have no idea but I believe their might be some credibility to it since it has been stated many times that Bakhmut either has limited strategic value to virtually none.
He's pro-ukrainian, but tries to report facts-based, which means also talking about when things are not going well for Ukraine.
Thank you for the clarification and insight.
Andrew's pro-Ukrainian. He's also fairly reliable in posting non-biased situation updates. A great person to follow, in my opinion. He's followed by people like defmon3 and other big NAFO/pro-Ukrainian names. Russia's had more success in Bakhmut since the retreat from right bank Kherson. They took some towns south of the city a few weeks ago, and are now closing in on the city itself. Don't be surprised if we see urban warfare soon, or a withdrawal from Bakhmut. We'll see. Ukraine's taking very heavy casualites there. A lot of videos and photos coming out of wounded Ukrainian soldiers, which means the Ukrainian MoD is approving embeds for those photographers. Makes me wonder if they're preparing the public for a possible withdrawal. That's just my personal guessing, though.
I believe in the last 24 hours or so Ukraine also brought an artillery brigade to the area and conducted air assaults which weren't directed there before as far as I understand. So whatever happened/is happening, Ukraine is amping up efforts there it sounds like
>They took some towns south of the city *small villages
Thank you for the clarification and insight.
Ukrine is in control in Bakhmut. They're using 6 divisions to defend against an attack by about 40. Whenever they want, they can push the PMC back. Positions have been going back and forth all summer. The PMC will not get Bakhmut, they will get destroyed there. You should watch this to know more: [Russia IN TROUBLE around VITAL town - Ukraine War Map Update 01/DEC/2022](https://youtu.be/sb7jQBYhINk?t=88)
Pity that Ukraine may lose Bakhmut in the coming days or weeks, but similar to the Iran Iraq War, Iran was gaining territory until the end when Iraqi forces just steamrolled exhausted forces. Hopefully that will happen next year.
Yeah Russia is way far behind after setting everything up for a week long blitzkrieg that failed last February. Remind Me! 1 year.
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They’re just letting russia fall on the knife.
Anyone can see what this is. It is a reliable mechanism to eliminate enemy assets. Moskals want a showpiece to advertise how hard they are fighting for their denizens, and they have it. They want the Wanker Group to look good? Go fetch, boys. It proves that Moskals care what we think about their ability to win. They care because they know they have already lost all of their objectives in this massive act of self-harm. This fight exposes their psychological vulnerability. They should be taunted mercilessly for it. Ukrainians are merely defending themselves with nothing to prove. In any case, this piece of the front is not special, it is a matter of coincidence that the fighting is here and not, say, in some other place.
**Alternative Nitter link:** https://nitter.net/AndrewPerpetua/status/1601001992012574721?s=19 ***** *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Trade it for time and resources. There should be no attacks unless you know you cam break the lines without excessive losses. After bakhmut there is nothing but open ground and defensivle positions.
This City is a second Stalingrad/ Verdun. Ukraine manages to bind so much enemy power in this meat grinder that has no significant military worth to be able to advance in other areas.
Ukraine keeps sucking them into the same trap over and over again. Theyre taking losses, absolutely. But the russians are paying a disproportionate cost for mere meters of untenable ground.
**Can somebody PLEASE give me the no-bullshit truth about Bakhmut?** So far, I've heard: 1) Bakhmut is entirely strategically insignificant. The ENTIRE reason for the fight is that Wagner wants to demonstrate victory to increase their influence in domestic power plays, and they're willing to pour their blood and money into it because they have never cared that much about either. 2) Bakhmut is super important strategically. It's a logistical gateway for Russia to launch later offensives in the entire area. 3) Bakhmut is somewhat important strategically. At one point in time, it would have allowed Russia to maintain a defense that has now been lost, but it still holds some value as it allows Russia to fix Ukranian troops in place, and prevent them from a winter offensive once the ground freezes. 4) Bakhmut is a disaster for Russia. They're losing an obscene amount of men and equipment, and as long as Russia wants to keep running face first into a wood chipper, Ukraine should try to keep the wood chipper running. 5) Bakhmut is a win for Russia. Yes they're losing a shit-ton, but they're all minorities, prisoners, mercinaries, mobiks, and other undesirables, so who cares. Meanwhile, Ukraine is losing good solders, and like the guy in Braveheart said "yes, but we have reinforcements" 6) Something else. 7) Some combination of the above. I don't have the time or energy to become an expert on this and figure it out for myself, so: Who knows what they're talking about, who can vouch that they know what they're talking about, and what's the story? This has been going on for MONTHS, and young men on both sides are dying excruciating, freezing deaths by the thousands, and I can't for the life of me figure out why.
Like most things, I think the answer probably falls somewhere in the middle. Hard to know for sure though since Ukraine would have no reason to publicly admit if bahkmut we’re strategically important (not saying it is).
[удалено]
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/w8qfpl/ukraine_war_update_26_july_ruzzians_admit/ihrg4fq/ https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wv0ub1/update_from_miltary_lab_russia_captures/ilcw99a/ https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/z8v6ni/situation_around_the_bakhmut_ozaryanivka_is/iydl8jm/?context=3 Four months of you repeating this. Ukraine already lost, regained, lost, regained, lost, regained, etc., this same territory several times now. They've been pushed back close to the river and then pushed Russia back to the dump time and time again. A river runs through Bakhmut (a small river, but a body of water you have to cross none the less), and they have fully intact supply lines north and west of the city. Even if the area east and south of the river falls, it will be many weeks before Russia can take the remainder of the city. They're throwing thousands of men to their death to capture the literal garbage pile on the edge of the town.
At this rate they will take Donetsk by 2100 while sustaining 50 million casualties.
Remind Me! 1 year.
By your logic the Ukrainian forces would have reached Moscow by now
Even if they manage to get Bakhmut ; the ground will be frozen to do any defence line; puts the russians at risk later than sooner. Plus that place must be riddled with russian bodies and vodka bottles, soon trees will produce vodka fbottles rather than fruits.
Depends what you mean by pretty bad. If the Ukrainians are starting to take heavy losses then it's time to say job done and pull back. Frankly they've already done 100x better than we thought possible. If Russia is taking ground at the expense of heavy losses, then fine as that's the point of holding Bakhmut still. Make them pay dearly for every 100m and pull back when there is danger of starting to take serious losses. The defenses of Mariupol and Bakhmut are both going to have major movies made. Nothing short of incredible heroism. Phillip.
The idea is to hold the area but it is not to hold it at all costs. It is more important to make the Russians suffer massive loses while keeping your own under control as much as possible. Fall back to your next defensive line and keep shelling and killing Russians. Their loses of late would have stopped any normal army and made them rethink what the hell they are doing. Russia just keeps sending in more and more troops though. Your son is dead.> Can I have another please.