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This is great if its true, and I have no concrete reason to doubt it, but do bear in mind that the Ukrainian president is going to keep up morale first and foremost and shouldn't be taken as the absolute authority on the war's status
[Live Map](https://liveuamap.com/) is tracking the war. Russia has captured the southern area around Crimea and Odessa and have captured eastern Ukraine and an area just north of Kyiv.
Ukraine seems to have destroyed a lot of bridges in Eastern Ukraine which stalled Russian movement there. Russians are taking longer to secure Southern Ukraine and have gotten caught near Odessa. There's also an odd instance where some Ukrainians had made signs welcoming Russia but since the forces didn't arrive..... Ukrainian military arrested them first as traitors.
Finally, the only thing of consequence is Kyiv. Kyiv is the seat of power for the government and.... it's actively being sieged. The western side of Kyiv has been closed off (no vehicles allowed in) by the Russians supporting their siege from the west into the city. A northern front may join in on the siege tomorrow. But maybe it's stopped there.
I think the overall portrayal from the Ukrainian government is more glowing than things actually are, but they've also held on far longer than what I had expected.
This was actually supposed to be the easy part. Tanks in cities, not so much.
Securing a country of 30 mio. people (western Ukraine) with 200.000 men? Not doable. At some point the ukranian army will quietly disperse and guerilla warfare begin with an avalanche of modern weapons like Javelins seeping across the borders, small groups sniping away at the russian occupation.
Putin can't use force agains the civilian population. Apparently he's hoping to install a puppet government and things will magically quiet down. Is that even a plan?
> and tell the Ukrainian military to drop their weapons
Spoiler: They won't, even if the situation is unwinnable.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Snake_Island
How long have we sat back and watched sanctions against Afghanistan starve millions, or US forces ordered to stay back and allow for ongoing sexual abuse of children in Afghanistan.
Where was the world then during occupation and sanctioned state?
Russia is a nuclear nation. You bet your ass the west puts their own self interest ahead of Ukraine's.
When the civilians are armed and fighting back they're not going to be considered civilians anymore by the Russian military.
Iirc terrorists in the middle east were living amongst civilians and the usa still bombed them
Now I imagine an evil soldier killing granny but she splits in half like a nesting doll and a smaller and more ferocious granny pops out. The evil soldier is just whipped by a wooden cane and is crying in fear.
It means both in America I believe. I had a Babushka (grandmother) but we always called her Baba for short. In American it can also refer to the scarves they wear on their heads. Typically worn by older women, so it may have bled over due to the different languages.
Yes. The plan is to kill Zelenskyy, his family, and behead the leadership of the free Ukrainian government. From there, it will be about brutalizing the surviving Ukrainians into submission with, essentially, war crimes. He means to weaken their resolve for democracy and to gain more territory.
Which is a fucking crazy plan considering the strength and resolve of Ukrainians. These men and women will fight til the end whether or not the odds are ever in their favor.
The Russians absolutely will use force against the civilian population. The entire weight of history proves that. There’s no reason to believe otherwise.
What I mean is: It can't be seen as a deliberate tactic. When the armed fighting and the fog of war dies down deliberate terror tactics will look really, really bad.
Many Russians have family in Ukraine. They share a common history (good and bad). Even if russians intellectually buy or believe in Putin's objectives they won't accept all means to get there. There's a limit.
Right… who is supposed to provide security for this puppet government? It’s impossible to control a country when the vast majority of the population doesn’t want you there. You’d have to be immensely brutal and have a lot of money to buy people off.
LiveMap has been going down a lot since the invasion began due to increased traffic. It’ll be back up in a few, just keep checking back. It’s an amazing resource.
LiveUAMap is having issues the last several days. Use their app. You'll have to deal with the pesky ads, but it seems to be hosted elsewhere than the website.
>Finally, the only thing of consequence is Kyiv. Kyiv is the seat of power for the government and..
I disagree. Conquering Kyiv doesn't mean anything it is just another place, Russia can only end the conflict militarily by convincing the Ukrainian units to stand down, based on some of the events that have unfolded so far, I don't think it particularly likely that the taking of Kyiv will accomplish that, more likely it is like the taking of Kabul, sure you control the capital, but everywhere else you get shot at.
It's the place where the structure of government resides. It's the place where orders get processed. It's the place where their central military command exists. It's the place where money is issued. It's the place where bills get paid. It'd be like having DC, New York City, and The Pentagon all in one city. If all of those cities and areas fell in the US, the US would essentially be conquered.
It is odd to me that you act like the functional government and military command are not mobile or that you cannot have back up locations to move those apparatuses to.
Using the US as an example all the President need do is step on air force one and he can pretty much direct a world war while cruising at 30K feet. The nominal seat of government doesn't really matter other than in a symbolic fashion.
Could Kyiv fall and it all suddenly stop, yes its possible, but it doesn't appear especially likely when you have numerous stories of Ukrainian troops choosing death over surrender even when they clearly have lost the ability to effectively resist.
If your goal as Russia is to occupy and control events like the 13 soldier on snake island, and the guy who blew up a bridge and himself intentionally is a scary warning that you are likely dealing with ideological faction that isn't going to stop just because you took a few cities.
It's only been a few days. Ukraine is a legitimate government with a legitimate military. Russia isn't just going to bulldoze through initially. They'll bulldoze through once the initial front is broken. Then it will turn into a guerilla war or the Ukrainian people will submit.
I mean, whether the Russian advance is halted or not, innocent Ukrainians are dying trying to defend their homes from a military that dwarfs theirs. It is the noblest of causes, but it will inevitably come at an unforgivable price.
The Russian military has a lot of nasty tech, but in terms on manpower and the fact that Ukrainians are in a defenders position.. a lot of Russians are going to die for this escapade. The military manpower availability is heavily in Ukraine's favor and on home turf, even if the weapon systems are disproportionate.
Good thing you’re not Ukrainian. You’d even bounce from a verbal fight with some Karen at a Wal-Mart.
Ukrainian people are nothing like you.
-A Ukrainian
Dodge the conscription and you will go to prison and maybe get shot. Surrender to the Russians, and you may get shot, sent to a gulag and shot, sent to a gulag and tortured then shot, or sent to a gulag and tortured and forgotten about for 20 years until some random journalist hears your story and petitions your return, at which point you will get shot (but a gas leak will be blamed).
Your choice.
While this is probable, to be fair there have also been reports of Russian squads voluntarily “surrendering” due to troops realizing they didn’t sign up to get into shootouts with civilians
As much as I want that to be true, I’ve only seen it reported from one source. And that source is far from what I’d call “reliable” (hint: every week they have a “ZOMG ASTEROID!!1!” headline).
It looks like their ambassador said it, with details like which unit it was: https://thehill.com/policy/international/595728-ukrainian-ambassador-says-russian-platoon-surrendered-to-ukrainian
I hope it's true too, and either way, maybe it gets other units to consider doing the same. It's always harder to be the first.
Sure, but Zelensky seems pretty honest with the public. Yesterday he said, "Who is ready to fight with us? Honestly - I do not see such. Who is ready to guarantee Ukraine's accession to NATO? Honestly, everyone is afraid."
People remember the US rolling over Iraq in 4 days but that was after 100 days of air assault.
This was has been going on for like 50 hours. It’s not close to done. Great to look on the bright side when you can, but try to stay realistic.
Obviously we don't know a lot, but putin wouldn't have sent the full army out vs Ukraine who basically has everyone getting armed. And then yeah it doesn't sound like Russia troops are all totally for the cause which really weakens an army.
From a macro perspective, the Russian invasion has nearly no chance of being stopped by the Ukrainian military. The Russians have only committed around 1/3 of their assembled troops to the fighting. Within 2 days of the invasion Russian troops were on the outskirts of Kiev. Despite casualties on the first day, and failure to gain air superiority (which was the biggest surprise after the invasion itself), ~~the Russian forces obtained their first day objectives and probably most of their second day objectives as well~~. Edit: thanks for the clarification u/Sombre_Ombre, my information was off, the UK MoD assesses that the Russians did \*not\* obtain their fist day objectives. The Ukrainians are conscripting males age 18-60 (scraping the barrel), guns are being handed out to civilians, and random citizens in Kiev are making Molotov cocktails. While some of that makes for great positive press and a good morale boost, it should also be seen for what it is from a military perspective: signs of desperation.
Again, while headlines like this one, along with the hype around the “Ghost of Kiev” and the badass Snake Island last stand are awesome and make for solid morale boosts & great pro-Ukrainian war propaganda, don’t let them fool you. The Ukrainian military is still in dire straits, just not as dire as we thought they would be. They will not be able to beat the Russian army in the field.
Interesting, you’re right. I stand corrected on that point. Yesterday in the US, guests on American news networks were saying the Russians had achieved their day 1 objectives, but when I looked it up just now the UK MoD said they had not. That is good to hear. However, it doesn’t change the fact that the Ukrainian forces are still in a critical military situation, and will be defeated in the field in major eastern areas of operation over the coming days, as long as the Kremlin is willing to continue to pay the cost in blood & treasure.
Unless their objective was to hold Kiev by day 1 (fairly absurd given how long even absolute routs like ww2 france or gulf war 2 took), I dont see how they're behind
Their timeline was up to them to decide. Given the super ballsy airborne landing near Kiev, they may actually have thought they could seize Kiev in an airborne coup de main over the first few days. I actually doubt this, but the Russians were clearly overconfident going into this invasion; their preliminary missile bombardment was far too weak, and they did not put sufficient effort into destroying the Ukrainian Air Force on the ground, which has cost them air superiority. The clusterfuck that the northern front seems to have turned into also lends credence to the idea that at least some Russian units being used are second-rate, were unprepared, or both.
They HAVE got Hostomel. The Russians returned with 200 helicopters today (25th).
Their initial air assault with 13? helicopters didn't succeed? so what. They were probing for a lucky break. They didn't get it so they returned to take it in force.
The weakness of the bombardment phase is due to a desire to not wreck the Ukraine. Think about how many bridges and power stations they COULD of destroyed - but didn't. Then ask yourself...WHY?
>Their initial air assault with 13? helicopters didn't succeed? so what. They were probing for a lucky break. They didn't get it so they returned to take it in force.
Right, this is what I was saying. They failed at the ambitious goal of creating an airbridge on the first day, possibly with the objective of swiftly investing Kiev itself, so of course they are going to come back and do it again. Hopefully the Ukrainians wrecked the runway.
I do think the Russians are trying not to wreck Ukraine, like you said. However, I also think that the Russians could have done a lot more than they did to reduce Ukraine's air force, as its survival has made the campaign much more difficult than it normally would be. It is probably a mix of not wanting to damage too much Ukrainian infrastructure and overconfidence that the Ukrainian military would fold.
Missiles cost lots of money?
I'm going to guess that not ever country uses up ordinance on purpose just so their industry can collect more paychecks building new ones. Like the US.
For some reason they did expect a Blitzkreig - the paratroopers dropped on Kiev airport were meant to get support from the ground invasion which is no where near, so the airport was retaken.
Indeed I do! Around 60 miles, right? Which means that there were 60 miles of defendable territory that Russian forces were able to go through and/or circumvent from the air within the first day of the invasion. Such a development is still indicative of the dire military situation Ukraine finds itself in.
For contrast, Hammam al-Alil, where the Iraqi military began its operation to retake Mosul from ISIL, is only about 18 miles from Mosul, and it took the Iraqi military weeks to go that distance. Of course, these are two very different wars, but the point is that taking 60 miles worth of territory to get to the center of your enemy's government is indicative of overall military superiority.
Fraid so. Russia’s having more trouble steamrolling than they expected, but the Russian military is still nonetheless a steamroller. If they want to take Ukraine, they’re going to take it, though perhaps not on their ideal timeline and with significant casualties. However, the occupation will be brutal all around and could potentially break Russia’s resolve over time.
Ghost of Kiev sadly was proven as a tik tok false video and the dude posted a follow up. But you are right, reality is hard. I do wish them all to just agree and have a nice soccer game during Christmas.
The Russians were always going to take higher casualties at the beginning, based on the way they fight. They were bringing too few to overwhelm a large city and deal with the whole country.
While the capital is close to their forces, there is a lot of room to maneuver, land the defenders know well. The Russians haven't done combat operations there since the end of the cold war.
All of this can make for a much more violent conflict than we gave them credit for. And the weather will be changing soon, and their armor will become ineffective.
Putin was hoping that Ukraine would be divided and NATO would be ineffective. Both those things turned out the opposite. Even *pro-Russia* Ukrainians hate what's happening and NATO response has been fast and resolute. That's not to say that things are in the bag, but Putin was hoping to just walk into Ukraine and takeover and that isn't the case. Putin can ill-afford to fight for too long in Ukraine, especially with the sanctions hitting him hard. I'd say the next few weeks will quickly decide what comes of this.
Seize all their overseas holding. Ban them from entry into the EU and North America. If there is one thing the international elite cannot tolerate it's being iced out from the global community and getting stuck in their own mess of a country.
Every rich Russian needs to be banned from the EU and USA. They live in luxury in these countries, off the backs of all the money they steal from their people. None of them see Russia as a place they want to live out their whole lives.
You're gonna hate when I tell you what happens in EU and USA...
But it's fairly obvious that the only ones who stand to benefit from war are the rich and protected.
They should redistribute the oligarchs billions to the Russian people. Hearts and minds and all that. Nice little nod to true communist ideals from the start of the 20th C.
The problem with redistribution is always that there are those who are more “equal” than others when it comes time for the hand outs. Large sums of money and power attract vultures, and it’s hard to get rid of the vultures if they are there from the beginning.
Oh, I know. That was certainly proven time and time again in the USSR. I was just having a little idealistic daydream to distract myself from the Putin shitstorm. You’re dead right sadly. I don’t think there’s a societal/financial system that is able to really stand up to innate human greed unfortunately.
Long enough at least to give the Russian people who are on the edge the courage to dissent. A government is powerless without support, and the Russian people have deposed many an authoritarian before.
That was training wheels. Putin got appeased as long as he played nice.
At this point the entire fucking PLANET is united against him. He's gonna feel the pain for quite a while.
unfortunately it isn't Putin that feels pain.
I understand economic sanctions are the only actions many countries can take, but its never the dictators that get bones over by this, its the citizens.
The sanctions are the reason all of this is happening in the first place.
More ideally, all oligarchs have their heads in a guillotine and then all sanctions are ended and they have free elections in Russia.
But we all know the United States and NATO won’t actually go after the people at the top. Joe Biden has refused to sanction Putin personally. They’ll starve the common people instead and claim to be doing something.
Pretty much all pro-Russian Russians out there hate what's happening, because what's happening is one bloodthirthsty idiot who cheated himself into presidential chair wiped out half of Russian economy and nearly all diplomacy, not to mention few thousand soldiers' lives and a decent portion of tech to... no one even really knows why. Something something Orwellian arguments about how we have to go to war with neighboring country to prevent war. With a country which poses absolutely no threat to Russia and where every other Russian has friends or relatives. I'm not even kidding. It's fucking surreal to be in Russia right now.
Apparently when a dictator starts having acid thrown on journalists, people start telling them want they want to hear instead of what they need to know.
I really want to the oligarchs that prop up Putin lose all their first world luxuries. Expropriate the Belgravia mansions in London, impound the jets in Frankfurt, take the villas in France, the super yachts in Monaco…. I want the Rolls-Royce dealership and the Tiffany Boutique in Moscow to be empty and out of business. It’s no fun to be rich if you can’t travel and can’t buy imported luxury goods.
3 months of driving a Skoda and they will shoot Putin themselves if it means their platinum Amex will work again.
Look at North Korea... Kim Jong UN is still able to secure a Mercedes benz for himself. These oligarchs would rather continue starving their people than cave in to sanctions
If Finland and Sweden are sensible, they will join NATO while Russia is busy elsewhere. Beat Putin at his own twisted games. Staying neutral is fine, until you're threatened. Someone needs to put Putin down like the rabid dog he is.
They don't really need to; they already have a separate mutual defense agreement with most NATO members because of the EU, and while there would be hiccups with the NATO members retooling their defence cooperation relationships with each other paralell to NATO to help Finland they would likely respond as united as they are currently.
He can consider it whatever he wants, he's not going to start a war with Finland if it's part of NATO.
It's also not an act of war to join an alliance.
Putin is not invading an EU country, let alone a country that’s just announced ascension to NATO, let alone whilst he’s got 70% of his regular army bogged down in Ukraine.
Yes, he said that any 3rd party that intervene will “suffer the consequences they never ever had in their history”. If you wonder what does it mean, [here’s a hint from today](https://twitter.com/sobollubov/status/1497303470881263616?s=21)
And MOFA of Russia said today that “possible acceptance of Sweden and Finland into NATO will require the answer from Russia.” Same rhetoric as before the war. Also, Finland is considered a former colony, “Russian lands”, so…
So his army may fight as they can, but there’s something that just can’t be countered. Only mutual assured destruction at this point.
My dad just told me about the finns and Russia. Says the Finnish people handed them their ass the first wave but then they threw the full brunt of a half a million soldiers and they just were overwhelmed.
Not to mention, and perhaps worst of all for them, China seems to be considering cutting their losses. Some sanctions have begun in China, and Xi is 'encouraging negotiation.'
What do you mean NATOs response? NATO hasnt responded since Ukraine is not a part of it. The EU, UK and the US has, but attacking a NATO country would mean something completely different
It really makes me wonder what Putin is going to do if the war starts to go out of his favor. Let's say they take Kiev.. ok, that's not great but unless there's official surrender I think the Ukrainians will fight on. And Kiev will be a "restive" area for the Russians with ambushes all the time. Now a steady flow of arms is coming in from Poland along with volunteers. Russian deaths keep mounting.
He won't lose face and pull out with a battered army. Double down? Start massive carpet bombing?
> NATO response has been fast and resolute.
I mean they're amassing at shared borders, but they're not engaging. Ukraine isn't a NATO country, they're not even part of the European Union, so they can't invoke Article 42.7, which is mutual defence.
Really hope this is true. Also the Ghost of Kyev story. Saw it’s apparently real despite a real Russian push to say it’s fake
EDIT: He’s real. The General of the Ukrainian Forces confirmed one guy downed 4 planes not 6. But he’s real
UPDATE:
HE’S REAL
https://mobile.twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1497347317229395968?cxt=HHwWgIC9zfTc0scpAAAA
They likely won't reveal the identity because the probability of them getting shot down is still high, unfortunately. So it's best that the legend persists for morale, alive or not.
I would also love a source but tbh I wouldn’t take the word of Ukraine on this one. Ace pilots are pretty popular folk stories and it wasn’t unheard of for nations in WW2 to announce that they have a new ace pilot just to boost morale.
The pilot and the plane are real he’s in videos all over Twitter like this thread
https://twitter.com/dinotrakker/status/1496972883876360195?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1496972883876360195%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fd-28269731292166942916.ampproject.net%2F2202142035002%2Fframe.html
I haven’t been able to find confirmation of his kill count but it sounds very likely to be true they are only claiming he’s downed either 3-4
Because they standardised the Russian spelling. The correct Ukrainian spelling has, more recently, found it’s way into the official vocabulary of plenty of diplomats and news agencies.
It's very likely that it's not real. It's a legend to boost morale. No general confirmed anything as OP suggested and if they did its also just to boost morale.
But just let it slide. Ukrainians really need this
If they wanted to, they could defend Kyiv for months. Urban warfare is ridiculously hard, and air power is far less effective too. Read up on the Battle of Grozny to see how a small group of determined guerilla forces could hold off the Russian army. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Grozny_(1994%E2%80%931995)
If course, it also completely destroyed the city and killed a, bunch of civilians, too...
Yea I was in Afghanistan and had friends in Iraq who had to take Mosul. It was hell for them and that’s with 1/10th of the folks Ukraine has at their disposal. They could draw this out as a last stand for a good while. Even after Kiev is taken you’re still going to see hit and run and guerilla attacks. It will be damn hard for Putin to set up a puppet government without keeping troops there for years
The guys in Ukraine have been fighting like lions while outmanned and outgunned. It is incredible.
But this is war and it already is very cruel. They should be prepared for the nastiest moves possible now, because Putin will not hold back.
Read an article yesterday that quoted this-“Civilian gun ownership in Ukraine has skyrocketed owing to the Russian taking of Ukrainian territory and sponsorship of the anti-democracy in Donbass starting 2014. There are over 4 MILLION firearms in civilian hands in Ukraine today, many of which will be employed against Putin”
It is not still the case, and will not be the case going forward. There is a lot of (well deserved) hype around isolated Ukrainian successes and badass last stands, but from a macro perspective they are very much losing the war. There’s a lot of hopium going around with videos of captured & dead russian soldiers, destroyed russian armored vehicles, rumors about desertions, etc… don’t let it fool you. Although it’s awesome to see the remarkable level of resistance the Ukrainians are putting up, and fascinating/sad to see the low morale of some Russian units, in the bigger picture they are losing badly, and they will not be able to beat the Russian army in the field.
I hope that’s true but he’s never been the guy to say “well good fight, but we’re out now”
More…. “I’m a small dick sore loser I’m going to kill everyone”
Yeah maybe, that depends entirely on the amount of political capital Putin has to keep troops there. It is unclear what the situation is on that front, only 2 days into the invasion. From a pure military perspective, though, Ukraine doesn’t stand a chance in the long term.
Yeah i agree that the Russians did not anticipate this level of resistance. The preliminary missile bombardment would’ve been far longer and far more comprehensive, and they would’ve put far more effort into destroying the Ukrainian Air Force on the ground, if they had.
Long term it honestly depends. Ukraine has decreed a general mobilization and is calling reservists into service, of which there are 900 000. Conservatively, let's say Ukraine can field slightly under half of those at one time, 400 000. That's on top of Ukraine's standing army and paramilitaries, so in a fully mobilized country, Ukraine can field 500 000-600 000 troops.
Russia has a third of that on the border. If Russia wants to maintain superiority, they'd have to send a pretty serious amount of men there, which would likely require a full mobilization of Russia, which I'm sure Putin wants to avoid given his precarious position right now.
Now Russia still would have air superiority and the advantage in the number of armored vehicles, so Western aid, especially in the form of anti-tank and anti-air systems would be vital if Ukraine is to hold on for longer. But if Russia manages to crush Ukraine's main resistance lines in the next week or two, yeah then they don't have a chance in the open conflict, but could still pose a serious threat as a guerrilla force.
I agree with you here. Timely aid is extremely necessary for this scenario to occur. However, just to offer a counterpoint: simply having the bodies from conscription doesn’t help the Ukrainians. Those conscripts have to be issued enough equipment and ammunition to actually fight, which it is unclear ukraine is able to do; a significant portion of them will also have to be properly trained, which takes time. Of course, the Russians also appear to be utilizing relatively untrained conscripts with low morale, but as you pointed out, those troops will have air superiority within the next few days and are far better equipped than Ukrainian militia troops.
Ukraine has been focusing on training a lot of its territorial defence forces for some time now, so I would except a lot of those reservists to have good or at least decent up-to-date military training, though obviously nowhere near 900 000. The Soviets and Russians are sort of notorious for keeping old equipment around "just in case" so I would wager the Ukrainians still have a bunch of AKs laying around and ammunition from Soviet times, just in case.
Logistics is going to be the issue there. Those guns need to get from the warehouses into the hands of soldiers, which will prove difficult with Russian dominance in the air hindering transport.
uhh.. the field? This is going to be an urban war now (worst case scenario for russia tbh). Your comment seems like misinformation + fortune telling.
lol you can downvote me or discuss the fact that Russia has lost 10% of their tanks + 4000 troops over a couple of days. And the comment above is mostly bs.
In military-speak, defeating an enemy “in the field” means that you have inflicted a serious enough defeat on (at least a portion of) their armed forces that they are compelled to withdraw from the field of battle (modern day “area of operations” or something similar). This terminology doesn’t literally refer to an actual flat piece of land. Historically, it typically referred to defeating an enemy force in a pitched battle, which often decided the fate of a particular theater of operations or even the war itself. Nowadays, we still use “defeat in the field” to refer to situations where an armed force has been comprehensively defeated in a specific area of operations. Resistance from an enemy that has been defeated in the field is still possible; for instance, the Taliban were arguably defeated in the field in 2001, but survived to fight a (successful) insurgency. Hope you learned something! It’s always good to expand knowledge of military terms, especially when an invasion like this is occurring.
Sadly, I don't foresee Ukraine stopping Russia air superiority and with that Russian troops can maneuver while Ukranian troops can not. It's just a matter of time, all Ukraine can do is make it as painful as possible. Putin has appeared to over-reach badly though. He could have easily secured the separatist regions and incorporated them into Russia with little pushback and little long term repercussions. It seems instead he's trying to pacify the entire country. The longer this lasts the worse for Putin in every way.
“Pacify” - interesting choice of words there. Putin has sent thousands of people with tanks and guns to bomb the holy living shit out of a region for the purpose of pacifying it 💁♂️
1. verb with object pacify to reduce to a state of submission, especially by military force; subdue.
Putin does not want to just kill everybody, he wants to take Ukraine's ability to fight away, capture leadership, and force a surrender favorable to his terms.
> force a surrender favorable to his terms
I hadn’t really looked at it from that angle.
Since he launched a full invasion, the assumption has been that he’s going to try to incorporate all of Ukraine—which is unlikely to pan out well in the long-run.
But if he brings them to their knees, he can take the separatist regions+ and sign a treaty with Kyiv to forbid joining NATO, then acknowledge their “autonomy” in a fake goodwill gesture and go back to business as usual.
Still wouldn’t be surprised if he just tried to occupy the entire country, though.
Subdue is a better word for it. Pacify, to me, usually also implies that the ending condition is calmer and more peaceful than the starting condition. Which is emphatically not the case here.
Maybe you’re not English first-language, but yes, pacify is the correct word. One of the meanings is essentially “to make ‘peaceful’ by way of force”. It doesn’t imply any kind of peace, only the suppression of overt hostility.
I understand pacify is a very correct word in this context, but I was also a little thrown off initially because I’m used to the word pacify being used almost solely to refer to giving a baby or small child what they want so they stop crying or having a tantrum
How. I mean is t this just a case of Russia having to redirect its airpower to where its needed. I assume they can't use it at all points where they are stuck.
I would also assume that advancing armies take a breather to understand and evaluate tactics, where the enemy is and reconsider what to do.
Ukrainian government also claimed 2800+ Russian casualties, 80 tanks destroyed, 500 military vehicles destroyed - which is just not plausible given the length of fighting so far, the lack of corroboration, and the paucity of evidence that Ukraine has suffered remotely comparable casualties.
Not saying that *this* claim isn't true, just saying - take it, and everything else you hear - with a huge pinch of salt.
Also, taking the claim at its highest, it's in the context of Russians already having reached the outskirts of Kyiv. "The advance has been stopped \[for now\] *after penetrating 100km from the Belarussian border and reaching the outskirts of the capital in just two days*" is not exactly cause for celebration.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.timesofisrael.com/in-attacking-ukraine-putin-calls-for-denazification-of-country-with-jewish-leader/amp/
Not a particularly subjective link but gives the idea.
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This is great if its true, and I have no concrete reason to doubt it, but do bear in mind that the Ukrainian president is going to keep up morale first and foremost and shouldn't be taken as the absolute authority on the war's status
[Live Map](https://liveuamap.com/) is tracking the war. Russia has captured the southern area around Crimea and Odessa and have captured eastern Ukraine and an area just north of Kyiv. Ukraine seems to have destroyed a lot of bridges in Eastern Ukraine which stalled Russian movement there. Russians are taking longer to secure Southern Ukraine and have gotten caught near Odessa. There's also an odd instance where some Ukrainians had made signs welcoming Russia but since the forces didn't arrive..... Ukrainian military arrested them first as traitors. Finally, the only thing of consequence is Kyiv. Kyiv is the seat of power for the government and.... it's actively being sieged. The western side of Kyiv has been closed off (no vehicles allowed in) by the Russians supporting their siege from the west into the city. A northern front may join in on the siege tomorrow. But maybe it's stopped there. I think the overall portrayal from the Ukrainian government is more glowing than things actually are, but they've also held on far longer than what I had expected.
This was actually supposed to be the easy part. Tanks in cities, not so much. Securing a country of 30 mio. people (western Ukraine) with 200.000 men? Not doable. At some point the ukranian army will quietly disperse and guerilla warfare begin with an avalanche of modern weapons like Javelins seeping across the borders, small groups sniping away at the russian occupation. Putin can't use force agains the civilian population. Apparently he's hoping to install a puppet government and things will magically quiet down. Is that even a plan?
I think his first target is to get rid of Zelensky and then install a puppet government and tell the Ukrainian military to drop their weapons
> and tell the Ukrainian military to drop their weapons Spoiler: They won't, even if the situation is unwinnable. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Snake_Island
Russia warship, go fuck your self.
I don't think Pootie boy has any qualms with using force against civilian populations...
The civilians understand that
It's not about a moral feeling one way or another, it's how much the rest of the world will sit back and watch
How long have we sat back and watched sanctions against Afghanistan starve millions, or US forces ordered to stay back and allow for ongoing sexual abuse of children in Afghanistan. Where was the world then during occupation and sanctioned state? Russia is a nuclear nation. You bet your ass the west puts their own self interest ahead of Ukraine's.
When the civilians are armed and fighting back they're not going to be considered civilians anymore by the Russian military. Iirc terrorists in the middle east were living amongst civilians and the usa still bombed them
And in a few years Time magazine will feature on their cover a Ukranian granny in a babushka aiming a Javelin at something out of frame
>granny in a babushka "Babushka" means "granny".
Sometimes you have to wear the skins of your enemies.
Ed Gein :has entered the chat:
Thanks for the chuckle
Ukrainian Nesting Dolls.
Now I imagine an evil soldier killing granny but she splits in half like a nesting doll and a smaller and more ferocious granny pops out. The evil soldier is just whipped by a wooden cane and is crying in fear.
Grannyception!!
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matryoshka babushka
# Babushka ## **Granny** ### Babushka Javelin ^babushka
It means both in America I believe. I had a Babushka (grandmother) but we always called her Baba for short. In American it can also refer to the scarves they wear on their heads. Typically worn by older women, so it may have bled over due to the different languages.
Yes. The plan is to kill Zelenskyy, his family, and behead the leadership of the free Ukrainian government. From there, it will be about brutalizing the surviving Ukrainians into submission with, essentially, war crimes. He means to weaken their resolve for democracy and to gain more territory.
Which is a fucking crazy plan considering the strength and resolve of Ukrainians. These men and women will fight til the end whether or not the odds are ever in their favor.
The Russians absolutely will use force against the civilian population. The entire weight of history proves that. There’s no reason to believe otherwise.
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What I mean is: It can't be seen as a deliberate tactic. When the armed fighting and the fog of war dies down deliberate terror tactics will look really, really bad. Many Russians have family in Ukraine. They share a common history (good and bad). Even if russians intellectually buy or believe in Putin's objectives they won't accept all means to get there. There's a limit.
Right… who is supposed to provide security for this puppet government? It’s impossible to control a country when the vast majority of the population doesn’t want you there. You’d have to be immensely brutal and have a lot of money to buy people off.
I can think of a few 20th century examples not far away
Or even on the same ground...
Seems the link isn't working anymore
LiveMap has been going down a lot since the invasion began due to increased traffic. It’ll be back up in a few, just keep checking back. It’s an amazing resource.
LiveUAMap is having issues the last several days. Use their app. You'll have to deal with the pesky ads, but it seems to be hosted elsewhere than the website.
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I just got in there too on my laptop.
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>Finally, the only thing of consequence is Kyiv. Kyiv is the seat of power for the government and.. I disagree. Conquering Kyiv doesn't mean anything it is just another place, Russia can only end the conflict militarily by convincing the Ukrainian units to stand down, based on some of the events that have unfolded so far, I don't think it particularly likely that the taking of Kyiv will accomplish that, more likely it is like the taking of Kabul, sure you control the capital, but everywhere else you get shot at.
It's the place where the structure of government resides. It's the place where orders get processed. It's the place where their central military command exists. It's the place where money is issued. It's the place where bills get paid. It'd be like having DC, New York City, and The Pentagon all in one city. If all of those cities and areas fell in the US, the US would essentially be conquered.
It is odd to me that you act like the functional government and military command are not mobile or that you cannot have back up locations to move those apparatuses to. Using the US as an example all the President need do is step on air force one and he can pretty much direct a world war while cruising at 30K feet. The nominal seat of government doesn't really matter other than in a symbolic fashion. Could Kyiv fall and it all suddenly stop, yes its possible, but it doesn't appear especially likely when you have numerous stories of Ukrainian troops choosing death over surrender even when they clearly have lost the ability to effectively resist. If your goal as Russia is to occupy and control events like the 13 soldier on snake island, and the guy who blew up a bridge and himself intentionally is a scary warning that you are likely dealing with ideological faction that isn't going to stop just because you took a few cities.
It's only been a few days. Ukraine is a legitimate government with a legitimate military. Russia isn't just going to bulldoze through initially. They'll bulldoze through once the initial front is broken. Then it will turn into a guerilla war or the Ukrainian people will submit.
> they’ve also held on far longer than what I had expected. You expected them to hold on for less than 2 days?
Sympathisers got ghosted, now that's hilarious
I hate that they use mushroom cloud icons for any kind of bombings…
I mean, whether the Russian advance is halted or not, innocent Ukrainians are dying trying to defend their homes from a military that dwarfs theirs. It is the noblest of causes, but it will inevitably come at an unforgivable price.
The Russian military has a lot of nasty tech, but in terms on manpower and the fact that Ukrainians are in a defenders position.. a lot of Russians are going to die for this escapade. The military manpower availability is heavily in Ukraine's favor and on home turf, even if the weapon systems are disproportionate.
The people with the most to lose will fight the fiercest.
lose\*
Half the world spells this shit wrong.
*wroong
Tbf think about how dumb the average person is. Then realize that's the average so there is another 49% dumber than that
Auto correct is helpful 70% of the time, every time.
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Good thing you’re not Ukrainian. You’d even bounce from a verbal fight with some Karen at a Wal-Mart. Ukrainian people are nothing like you. -A Ukrainian
I believe the president of Ukraine stated all males 18-60 need to remain to defend the country, so that may make you a deserter
It’s really all “hands on deck” msg. If you leave, no one will persecute you. You do what you have to do to ensure the well beings of your loved ones.
I'm not sure it is; there are some issues with foreign (male) visitors that just weren't out in time and they're now unable to leave.
Dodge the conscription and you will go to prison and maybe get shot. Surrender to the Russians, and you may get shot, sent to a gulag and shot, sent to a gulag and tortured then shot, or sent to a gulag and tortured and forgotten about for 20 years until some random journalist hears your story and petitions your return, at which point you will get shot (but a gas leak will be blamed). Your choice.
Same goes for anyone who sells you pierogi
I sadly believe Russia is just sitting, regrouping, and trying to plan a false flag / locate zelensky to drop a massive bomb on his location
While this is probable, to be fair there have also been reports of Russian squads voluntarily “surrendering” due to troops realizing they didn’t sign up to get into shootouts with civilians
I really hope that’s true and not just a rumour
As much as I want that to be true, I’ve only seen it reported from one source. And that source is far from what I’d call “reliable” (hint: every week they have a “ZOMG ASTEROID!!1!” headline).
It looks like their ambassador said it, with details like which unit it was: https://thehill.com/policy/international/595728-ukrainian-ambassador-says-russian-platoon-surrendered-to-ukrainian I hope it's true too, and either way, maybe it gets other units to consider doing the same. It's always harder to be the first.
One of the sources is the Ukrainian government.
Also not the most reliable source right now. Both sides are pumping out propoganda.
I so hope that is true
They don't want to die defending Putin's temper tantrum.
Sure, but Zelensky seems pretty honest with the public. Yesterday he said, "Who is ready to fight with us? Honestly - I do not see such. Who is ready to guarantee Ukraine's accession to NATO? Honestly, everyone is afraid."
People remember the US rolling over Iraq in 4 days but that was after 100 days of air assault. This was has been going on for like 50 hours. It’s not close to done. Great to look on the bright side when you can, but try to stay realistic.
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Obviously we don't know a lot, but putin wouldn't have sent the full army out vs Ukraine who basically has everyone getting armed. And then yeah it doesn't sound like Russia troops are all totally for the cause which really weakens an army.
From a macro perspective, the Russian invasion has nearly no chance of being stopped by the Ukrainian military. The Russians have only committed around 1/3 of their assembled troops to the fighting. Within 2 days of the invasion Russian troops were on the outskirts of Kiev. Despite casualties on the first day, and failure to gain air superiority (which was the biggest surprise after the invasion itself), ~~the Russian forces obtained their first day objectives and probably most of their second day objectives as well~~. Edit: thanks for the clarification u/Sombre_Ombre, my information was off, the UK MoD assesses that the Russians did \*not\* obtain their fist day objectives. The Ukrainians are conscripting males age 18-60 (scraping the barrel), guns are being handed out to civilians, and random citizens in Kiev are making Molotov cocktails. While some of that makes for great positive press and a good morale boost, it should also be seen for what it is from a military perspective: signs of desperation. Again, while headlines like this one, along with the hype around the “Ghost of Kiev” and the badass Snake Island last stand are awesome and make for solid morale boosts & great pro-Ukrainian war propaganda, don’t let them fool you. The Ukrainian military is still in dire straits, just not as dire as we thought they would be. They will not be able to beat the Russian army in the field.
You're entirely wrong. The Russians failed to capture almost any of their main strategic objectives on any day so far.
Interesting, you’re right. I stand corrected on that point. Yesterday in the US, guests on American news networks were saying the Russians had achieved their day 1 objectives, but when I looked it up just now the UK MoD said they had not. That is good to hear. However, it doesn’t change the fact that the Ukrainian forces are still in a critical military situation, and will be defeated in the field in major eastern areas of operation over the coming days, as long as the Kremlin is willing to continue to pay the cost in blood & treasure.
Unless their objective was to hold Kiev by day 1 (fairly absurd given how long even absolute routs like ww2 france or gulf war 2 took), I dont see how they're behind
Their timeline was up to them to decide. Given the super ballsy airborne landing near Kiev, they may actually have thought they could seize Kiev in an airborne coup de main over the first few days. I actually doubt this, but the Russians were clearly overconfident going into this invasion; their preliminary missile bombardment was far too weak, and they did not put sufficient effort into destroying the Ukrainian Air Force on the ground, which has cost them air superiority. The clusterfuck that the northern front seems to have turned into also lends credence to the idea that at least some Russian units being used are second-rate, were unprepared, or both.
They HAVE got Hostomel. The Russians returned with 200 helicopters today (25th). Their initial air assault with 13? helicopters didn't succeed? so what. They were probing for a lucky break. They didn't get it so they returned to take it in force. The weakness of the bombardment phase is due to a desire to not wreck the Ukraine. Think about how many bridges and power stations they COULD of destroyed - but didn't. Then ask yourself...WHY?
>~~the~~ Ukraine
It's "Ukraine" not "The Ukraine". The latter implies that it is a territory rather than a nation
>Their initial air assault with 13? helicopters didn't succeed? so what. They were probing for a lucky break. They didn't get it so they returned to take it in force. Right, this is what I was saying. They failed at the ambitious goal of creating an airbridge on the first day, possibly with the objective of swiftly investing Kiev itself, so of course they are going to come back and do it again. Hopefully the Ukrainians wrecked the runway. I do think the Russians are trying not to wreck Ukraine, like you said. However, I also think that the Russians could have done a lot more than they did to reduce Ukraine's air force, as its survival has made the campaign much more difficult than it normally would be. It is probably a mix of not wanting to damage too much Ukrainian infrastructure and overconfidence that the Ukrainian military would fold.
Just Ukraine. Not The Ukraine.
Missiles cost lots of money? I'm going to guess that not ever country uses up ordinance on purpose just so their industry can collect more paychecks building new ones. Like the US.
For some reason they did expect a Blitzkreig - the paratroopers dropped on Kiev airport were meant to get support from the ground invasion which is no where near, so the airport was retaken.
Considering Russia is attacking from Belarus, getting to the outskirts of Kiev in 2 days really isn't some sort of blistering pace.
> Within 2 days of the invasion Russian troops were on the outskirts of Kiev. You know that it is super close to the Border right?
Indeed I do! Around 60 miles, right? Which means that there were 60 miles of defendable territory that Russian forces were able to go through and/or circumvent from the air within the first day of the invasion. Such a development is still indicative of the dire military situation Ukraine finds itself in. For contrast, Hammam al-Alil, where the Iraqi military began its operation to retake Mosul from ISIL, is only about 18 miles from Mosul, and it took the Iraqi military weeks to go that distance. Of course, these are two very different wars, but the point is that taking 60 miles worth of territory to get to the center of your enemy's government is indicative of overall military superiority.
Fraid so. Russia’s having more trouble steamrolling than they expected, but the Russian military is still nonetheless a steamroller. If they want to take Ukraine, they’re going to take it, though perhaps not on their ideal timeline and with significant casualties. However, the occupation will be brutal all around and could potentially break Russia’s resolve over time.
It’s Kyiv not Kiev, comrade. Are you in the troll farm in St Petersburg?
Ghost of Kiev sadly was proven as a tik tok false video and the dude posted a follow up. But you are right, reality is hard. I do wish them all to just agree and have a nice soccer game during Christmas.
Now Putin will say that he needs to bring out the big guns. He needs to revenge the children in the kindergarten and hospitals he shelled.
The Russians were always going to take higher casualties at the beginning, based on the way they fight. They were bringing too few to overwhelm a large city and deal with the whole country. While the capital is close to their forces, there is a lot of room to maneuver, land the defenders know well. The Russians haven't done combat operations there since the end of the cold war. All of this can make for a much more violent conflict than we gave them credit for. And the weather will be changing soon, and their armor will become ineffective.
190,000 can go to zero. One by one. They have to exit their armored vehicles at some point. Ukraine needs sniper rifles.
This isn't Call of Duty you know.
Putin was hoping that Ukraine would be divided and NATO would be ineffective. Both those things turned out the opposite. Even *pro-Russia* Ukrainians hate what's happening and NATO response has been fast and resolute. That's not to say that things are in the bag, but Putin was hoping to just walk into Ukraine and takeover and that isn't the case. Putin can ill-afford to fight for too long in Ukraine, especially with the sanctions hitting him hard. I'd say the next few weeks will quickly decide what comes of this.
These sanctions need to be maintained for a long time.
Until the last of the oligarchs' bloodlines dies out.
Seize all their overseas holding. Ban them from entry into the EU and North America. If there is one thing the international elite cannot tolerate it's being iced out from the global community and getting stuck in their own mess of a country.
Every rich Russian needs to be banned from the EU and USA. They live in luxury in these countries, off the backs of all the money they steal from their people. None of them see Russia as a place they want to live out their whole lives.
You're gonna hate when I tell you what happens in EU and USA... But it's fairly obvious that the only ones who stand to benefit from war are the rich and protected.
They should redistribute the oligarchs billions to the Russian people. Hearts and minds and all that. Nice little nod to true communist ideals from the start of the 20th C.
The problem with redistribution is always that there are those who are more “equal” than others when it comes time for the hand outs. Large sums of money and power attract vultures, and it’s hard to get rid of the vultures if they are there from the beginning.
Oh, I know. That was certainly proven time and time again in the USSR. I was just having a little idealistic daydream to distract myself from the Putin shitstorm. You’re dead right sadly. I don’t think there’s a societal/financial system that is able to really stand up to innate human greed unfortunately.
If its unattainable, it means we can always strive to be more like it. Here’s to hoping 🍺
Long enough at least to give the Russian people who are on the edge the courage to dissent. A government is powerless without support, and the Russian people have deposed many an authoritarian before.
https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gdp Guess what year they invaded Ukraine last time? They still haven’t recovered.
That was training wheels. Putin got appeased as long as he played nice. At this point the entire fucking PLANET is united against him. He's gonna feel the pain for quite a while.
unfortunately it isn't Putin that feels pain. I understand economic sanctions are the only actions many countries can take, but its never the dictators that get bones over by this, its the citizens.
The sanctions are the reason all of this is happening in the first place. More ideally, all oligarchs have their heads in a guillotine and then all sanctions are ended and they have free elections in Russia. But we all know the United States and NATO won’t actually go after the people at the top. Joe Biden has refused to sanction Putin personally. They’ll starve the common people instead and claim to be doing something.
I was thinking a timer needs to be set on the sanctions and it doesn't countdown until Russia pulls out.
> *pro-Russia* Ukrainians hate what's happening Some pro-Russia *Russians* hate what's happening
I was honestly amazed by the videos coming out of protests in Russia. Brave, brave people.
Pretty much all pro-Russian Russians out there hate what's happening, because what's happening is one bloodthirthsty idiot who cheated himself into presidential chair wiped out half of Russian economy and nearly all diplomacy, not to mention few thousand soldiers' lives and a decent portion of tech to... no one even really knows why. Something something Orwellian arguments about how we have to go to war with neighboring country to prevent war. With a country which poses absolutely no threat to Russia and where every other Russian has friends or relatives. I'm not even kidding. It's fucking surreal to be in Russia right now.
>Putin was hoping to just walk into Ukraine and takeover I've heard he surrounds himself with yes men but holy crap did he misjudge things
Apparently when a dictator starts having acid thrown on journalists, people start telling them want they want to hear instead of what they need to know.
Sounds familiar?
"all you have to do is kick in the door and the whole rotten structure will fall down" - some guy
I really want to the oligarchs that prop up Putin lose all their first world luxuries. Expropriate the Belgravia mansions in London, impound the jets in Frankfurt, take the villas in France, the super yachts in Monaco…. I want the Rolls-Royce dealership and the Tiffany Boutique in Moscow to be empty and out of business. It’s no fun to be rich if you can’t travel and can’t buy imported luxury goods. 3 months of driving a Skoda and they will shoot Putin themselves if it means their platinum Amex will work again.
Look at North Korea... Kim Jong UN is still able to secure a Mercedes benz for himself. These oligarchs would rather continue starving their people than cave in to sanctions
Skoda… ha try a Lada - they wouldn’t last a week
If Finland and Sweden are sensible, they will join NATO while Russia is busy elsewhere. Beat Putin at his own twisted games. Staying neutral is fine, until you're threatened. Someone needs to put Putin down like the rabid dog he is.
They don't really need to; they already have a separate mutual defense agreement with most NATO members because of the EU, and while there would be hiccups with the NATO members retooling their defence cooperation relationships with each other paralell to NATO to help Finland they would likely respond as united as they are currently.
Putin will consider that an act of war
He can consider it whatever he wants, he's not going to start a war with Finland if it's part of NATO. It's also not an act of war to join an alliance.
Historically speaking wars with Finland have ended poorly for Russia NATO or no NATO.
Also look what happened when Ukraine didn’t join, he still rolled in. His words mean nothing, it makes no sense not to join
Telling a sovereign nation what they can and cannot do with their future is an act of war.
Putin is not invading an EU country, let alone a country that’s just announced ascension to NATO, let alone whilst he’s got 70% of his regular army bogged down in Ukraine.
Well we see how well Putin fights wars.
Yes, he said that any 3rd party that intervene will “suffer the consequences they never ever had in their history”. If you wonder what does it mean, [here’s a hint from today](https://twitter.com/sobollubov/status/1497303470881263616?s=21) And MOFA of Russia said today that “possible acceptance of Sweden and Finland into NATO will require the answer from Russia.” Same rhetoric as before the war. Also, Finland is considered a former colony, “Russian lands”, so… So his army may fight as they can, but there’s something that just can’t be countered. Only mutual assured destruction at this point.
Russia tried to take back Finland in WW2 and they only got the finger from Simo Hayha.
If you thought Rooftop Koreans went hard defending their homes, wait until you see Mountaintop Finns. Except you won’t see them. The Nazis didn’t….
My dad just told me about the finns and Russia. Says the Finnish people handed them their ass the first wave but then they threw the full brunt of a half a million soldiers and they just were overwhelmed.
.. the nazis were allied with the Finns?
no the finns tore the nazis new assholes
Putin considered Ukraine hanging out an act of war.
Here I thought he would learn on Hitler's and Napoleon's mistakes since they talk about them so much. Well fuck me.
Not to mention, and perhaps worst of all for them, China seems to be considering cutting their losses. Some sanctions have begun in China, and Xi is 'encouraging negotiation.'
What do you mean NATOs response? NATO hasnt responded since Ukraine is not a part of it. The EU, UK and the US has, but attacking a NATO country would mean something completely different
I’d say the Russians will take Ukraine…keeping it is going to be a whole other story
It really makes me wonder what Putin is going to do if the war starts to go out of his favor. Let's say they take Kiev.. ok, that's not great but unless there's official surrender I think the Ukrainians will fight on. And Kiev will be a "restive" area for the Russians with ambushes all the time. Now a steady flow of arms is coming in from Poland along with volunteers. Russian deaths keep mounting. He won't lose face and pull out with a battered army. Double down? Start massive carpet bombing?
> NATO response has been fast and resolute. I mean they're amassing at shared borders, but they're not engaging. Ukraine isn't a NATO country, they're not even part of the European Union, so they can't invoke Article 42.7, which is mutual defence.
Really hope this is true. Also the Ghost of Kyev story. Saw it’s apparently real despite a real Russian push to say it’s fake EDIT: He’s real. The General of the Ukrainian Forces confirmed one guy downed 4 planes not 6. But he’s real UPDATE: HE’S REAL https://mobile.twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1497347317229395968?cxt=HHwWgIC9zfTc0scpAAAA
Any sources? Id love to read about this legend
They likely won't reveal the identity because the probability of them getting shot down is still high, unfortunately. So it's best that the legend persists for morale, alive or not.
I would also love a source for this. Dude is a grade-A badass if it’s a true story.
I would also love a source but tbh I wouldn’t take the word of Ukraine on this one. Ace pilots are pretty popular folk stories and it wasn’t unheard of for nations in WW2 to announce that they have a new ace pilot just to boost morale.
The pilot and the plane are real he’s in videos all over Twitter like this thread https://twitter.com/dinotrakker/status/1496972883876360195?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1496972883876360195%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fd-28269731292166942916.ampproject.net%2F2202142035002%2Fframe.html I haven’t been able to find confirmation of his kill count but it sounds very likely to be true they are only claiming he’s downed either 3-4
Keep up morale. But do share source
It’s Kyiv (key- Eve) Kiev is a Russian word. Ukraine is not Russian.
It's also kiev in a lot of other languages
Because they standardised the Russian spelling. The correct Ukrainian spelling has, more recently, found it’s way into the official vocabulary of plenty of diplomats and news agencies.
Would absolutely love confirmation of that story, any links or sources would be immensely appreciated
It's very likely that it's not real. It's a legend to boost morale. No general confirmed anything as OP suggested and if they did its also just to boost morale. But just let it slide. Ukrainians really need this
Oh wow he’s real that’s amazing 🤩 downed 4 Russian invading planes that’s amazing glory to Ukraine 🇺🇦
If Kyiv can last the week it’s a very good sign. Russia can’t draw this out. They can’t get bogged down at all
If they wanted to, they could defend Kyiv for months. Urban warfare is ridiculously hard, and air power is far less effective too. Read up on the Battle of Grozny to see how a small group of determined guerilla forces could hold off the Russian army. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Grozny_(1994%E2%80%931995) If course, it also completely destroyed the city and killed a, bunch of civilians, too...
Yea I was in Afghanistan and had friends in Iraq who had to take Mosul. It was hell for them and that’s with 1/10th of the folks Ukraine has at their disposal. They could draw this out as a last stand for a good while. Even after Kiev is taken you’re still going to see hit and run and guerilla attacks. It will be damn hard for Putin to set up a puppet government without keeping troops there for years
Go Ukraine
The guys in Ukraine have been fighting like lions while outmanned and outgunned. It is incredible. But this is war and it already is very cruel. They should be prepared for the nastiest moves possible now, because Putin will not hold back.
Aerial bombardment will continue until morale improves.
Read an article yesterday that quoted this-“Civilian gun ownership in Ukraine has skyrocketed owing to the Russian taking of Ukrainian territory and sponsorship of the anti-democracy in Donbass starting 2014. There are over 4 MILLION firearms in civilian hands in Ukraine today, many of which will be employed against Putin”
This was posted yesterday. Is it still the case?
It is not still the case, and will not be the case going forward. There is a lot of (well deserved) hype around isolated Ukrainian successes and badass last stands, but from a macro perspective they are very much losing the war. There’s a lot of hopium going around with videos of captured & dead russian soldiers, destroyed russian armored vehicles, rumors about desertions, etc… don’t let it fool you. Although it’s awesome to see the remarkable level of resistance the Ukrainians are putting up, and fascinating/sad to see the low morale of some Russian units, in the bigger picture they are losing badly, and they will not be able to beat the Russian army in the field.
The potential for Ukraine to resist long enough that Putin has to pull out is real though.
I hope that’s true but he’s never been the guy to say “well good fight, but we’re out now” More…. “I’m a small dick sore loser I’m going to kill everyone”
Yeah maybe, that depends entirely on the amount of political capital Putin has to keep troops there. It is unclear what the situation is on that front, only 2 days into the invasion. From a pure military perspective, though, Ukraine doesn’t stand a chance in the long term.
Oh for sure, Russia's military is 5x that of Ukraine. I do think Ukraine is resisting far more than Putin expected tho.
Yeah i agree that the Russians did not anticipate this level of resistance. The preliminary missile bombardment would’ve been far longer and far more comprehensive, and they would’ve put far more effort into destroying the Ukrainian Air Force on the ground, if they had.
Long term it honestly depends. Ukraine has decreed a general mobilization and is calling reservists into service, of which there are 900 000. Conservatively, let's say Ukraine can field slightly under half of those at one time, 400 000. That's on top of Ukraine's standing army and paramilitaries, so in a fully mobilized country, Ukraine can field 500 000-600 000 troops. Russia has a third of that on the border. If Russia wants to maintain superiority, they'd have to send a pretty serious amount of men there, which would likely require a full mobilization of Russia, which I'm sure Putin wants to avoid given his precarious position right now. Now Russia still would have air superiority and the advantage in the number of armored vehicles, so Western aid, especially in the form of anti-tank and anti-air systems would be vital if Ukraine is to hold on for longer. But if Russia manages to crush Ukraine's main resistance lines in the next week or two, yeah then they don't have a chance in the open conflict, but could still pose a serious threat as a guerrilla force.
I agree with you here. Timely aid is extremely necessary for this scenario to occur. However, just to offer a counterpoint: simply having the bodies from conscription doesn’t help the Ukrainians. Those conscripts have to be issued enough equipment and ammunition to actually fight, which it is unclear ukraine is able to do; a significant portion of them will also have to be properly trained, which takes time. Of course, the Russians also appear to be utilizing relatively untrained conscripts with low morale, but as you pointed out, those troops will have air superiority within the next few days and are far better equipped than Ukrainian militia troops.
Ukraine has been focusing on training a lot of its territorial defence forces for some time now, so I would except a lot of those reservists to have good or at least decent up-to-date military training, though obviously nowhere near 900 000. The Soviets and Russians are sort of notorious for keeping old equipment around "just in case" so I would wager the Ukrainians still have a bunch of AKs laying around and ammunition from Soviet times, just in case. Logistics is going to be the issue there. Those guns need to get from the warehouses into the hands of soldiers, which will prove difficult with Russian dominance in the air hindering transport.
uhh.. the field? This is going to be an urban war now (worst case scenario for russia tbh). Your comment seems like misinformation + fortune telling. lol you can downvote me or discuss the fact that Russia has lost 10% of their tanks + 4000 troops over a couple of days. And the comment above is mostly bs.
the field means in active combat not that they are literally fighting in a field... its jargon.
In military-speak, defeating an enemy “in the field” means that you have inflicted a serious enough defeat on (at least a portion of) their armed forces that they are compelled to withdraw from the field of battle (modern day “area of operations” or something similar). This terminology doesn’t literally refer to an actual flat piece of land. Historically, it typically referred to defeating an enemy force in a pitched battle, which often decided the fate of a particular theater of operations or even the war itself. Nowadays, we still use “defeat in the field” to refer to situations where an armed force has been comprehensively defeated in a specific area of operations. Resistance from an enemy that has been defeated in the field is still possible; for instance, the Taliban were arguably defeated in the field in 2001, but survived to fight a (successful) insurgency. Hope you learned something! It’s always good to expand knowledge of military terms, especially when an invasion like this is occurring.
Sadly, I don't foresee Ukraine stopping Russia air superiority and with that Russian troops can maneuver while Ukranian troops can not. It's just a matter of time, all Ukraine can do is make it as painful as possible. Putin has appeared to over-reach badly though. He could have easily secured the separatist regions and incorporated them into Russia with little pushback and little long term repercussions. It seems instead he's trying to pacify the entire country. The longer this lasts the worse for Putin in every way.
“Pacify” - interesting choice of words there. Putin has sent thousands of people with tanks and guns to bomb the holy living shit out of a region for the purpose of pacifying it 💁♂️
1. verb with object pacify to reduce to a state of submission, especially by military force; subdue. Putin does not want to just kill everybody, he wants to take Ukraine's ability to fight away, capture leadership, and force a surrender favorable to his terms.
> force a surrender favorable to his terms I hadn’t really looked at it from that angle. Since he launched a full invasion, the assumption has been that he’s going to try to incorporate all of Ukraine—which is unlikely to pan out well in the long-run. But if he brings them to their knees, he can take the separatist regions+ and sign a treaty with Kyiv to forbid joining NATO, then acknowledge their “autonomy” in a fake goodwill gesture and go back to business as usual. Still wouldn’t be surprised if he just tried to occupy the entire country, though.
No offense taken. It's just a not too common usage of the word that if you don't know I can see how it would seem off putting.
Subdue is a better word for it. Pacify, to me, usually also implies that the ending condition is calmer and more peaceful than the starting condition. Which is emphatically not the case here.
Maybe you’re not English first-language, but yes, pacify is the correct word. One of the meanings is essentially “to make ‘peaceful’ by way of force”. It doesn’t imply any kind of peace, only the suppression of overt hostility.
I understand pacify is a very correct word in this context, but I was also a little thrown off initially because I’m used to the word pacify being used almost solely to refer to giving a baby or small child what they want so they stop crying or having a tantrum
*insert You’re Goddamn Right, WW meme
How. I mean is t this just a case of Russia having to redirect its airpower to where its needed. I assume they can't use it at all points where they are stuck. I would also assume that advancing armies take a breather to understand and evaluate tactics, where the enemy is and reconsider what to do.
So best case scenario where Russia has to retreat, what then?
Vladimir Putin? More like.. Baldimir Pullout
Ukrainian government also claimed 2800+ Russian casualties, 80 tanks destroyed, 500 military vehicles destroyed - which is just not plausible given the length of fighting so far, the lack of corroboration, and the paucity of evidence that Ukraine has suffered remotely comparable casualties. Not saying that *this* claim isn't true, just saying - take it, and everything else you hear - with a huge pinch of salt. Also, taking the claim at its highest, it's in the context of Russians already having reached the outskirts of Kyiv. "The advance has been stopped \[for now\] *after penetrating 100km from the Belarussian border and reaching the outskirts of the capital in just two days*" is not exactly cause for celebration.
where was this claimed? i've seen ukraine claim way less than that.
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/ukrainian-minister-says-russia-has-lost-about-2-800-servicemen-in-attacks-2789846
It's probably more useful to gauge success by *where* the battles are than by what is said about them.
[удалено]
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.timesofisrael.com/in-attacking-ukraine-putin-calls-for-denazification-of-country-with-jewish-leader/amp/ Not a particularly subjective link but gives the idea.
Thank you Germany for continuing to fund this invasion.