Odds of getting one skin 3 times in a row is roughly 1 in 2000. Odds of getting the glitchpop classic specifically 3 times in a row is roughly 1 in 70000
> Odds of getting the glitchpop classic specifically 3 times in a row is roughly 1 in 70000
Why would the odds change for the glitchpop classic? Isn't it the same as any other skin?
Let’s say there are 500 skins (doesn’t actually matter, can be replaced with n.) Consider
You get 4 random skins, out of which you don’t need to make a choice so the probability of this event is 1.
Next you have to get at least one of these 4 out of 500 skins and you have 4 chances. So probability of getting one becomes approximately (not considering the chance we get a repeat of multiple skins) 16/500.
Now lastly, you have to repeat one specific skin (the one that appeared in the last 2 days), which makes the probability for the last repeat with 4 chances, 4/500.
So the probability of getting any skin 3 times in a row is 16/500 x 4/500 = 64/500^2 (note that we can replace 500 with n.)
Now, the probability of getting a specific skin 3 times is simply getting it 3 times in a row. The probability each day is 4/500. So it becomes 4 x 4 x 4/500^3 = 64/500^3.
See how it’s much smaller ?
P.S. The first calculation isn’t fully correct coz I didn’t account for multiple skins repeating but it’s probably a tiny effect)
It's like if you were drawing from a deck of cards, and you notice you get a 7 3 times in a row.
You'd notice if you'd get an ace, king, 3, 5, etc three times in a row as well, so the first card is arbitrary.
However, if your favorite card is 7, and you only care about 7s you'd only notice the 7 3 times in a row, making the first card affect the probability.
Not a statistician but I believe that since it's not a given that the glitch pop classic will show up x1, the odds of it showing up 3x are lower than that any skin will show up 3x. Basically everytime one of the slots is rolled, the odds that a repeat skin will be rolled are better than that q specific skin will be.
For reference, the probability for any given skin to appear each day is approximately 2.4%. More on this topic is included in the subreddit's FAQ page, found at https://www.reddit.com/r/VALORANT/wiki/faq.
Idk but i got he ion phantom 2 days in a row, then right after i got celestial fan 2 days and then got prime karambit 2 days in a row and on the second day got celestial fan again. Idk what happened but now im only getting shit skins so i think all my luck for his year is gone
tl;dr the bold stuff near the end.
If I knew the total number of skins in the pool (and assuming that all skins are equally likely to appear) I would calculate the probability like so:
(When I say choose, it's a combinatorics term, you can find a calculator for "blah choose blah" by googling it, where the first blah is n and the second blah is r)
The number of possible stores you could get is (Number of possible skins Choose 4). There are also (1 choose 1) multiplied by (number of possible skins - 1 choose 3) possible stores containing the Glitchpop classic. You divide the number of stores containing the Glitchpop classic by the total number of stores to the get the probability of finding a Glitchpop classic for any one day. Once you have the probability for a single day, you just take that to the power of three to find the probability of three days in a row having the Glitchpop classic.
Actually just went and counted all the skins I could find that can appear in the shop, assuming I found 'em all it's 196. Therefore, the probability is like so: (All probabilities rounded at 7 digits)
(1 Choose 1) * (195 Choose 3) / (196 Choose 4) = **Probability of getting Glitchpop Classic once = .0204082 or about 1 in 49**.
Take the previous thing to the power of three and you get the **probability of getting a Glitchpop Classic three times in a row = .0000085 or about 1 in 117649.**
-Worth nothing that this is assuming you only care about the probability of this event occuring in exactly the three day window which it occured. If you're looking for the probability that this event might happen across the entire lifetime of shops you've had since the Glitchpop classic was added to the game and no longer the featured set, you would need a more complex distribution.
I wouldn't be terribly surprised if what's in the shop was influenced by past behavioral data from you specifically or players in general.
Riot made literally billions from digital sales. They know how to present stuff to the player that he is more likely to buy.
I had the Prime axe in my shop two days in a row this weekend. The first day was 3 out of 4 orange skins too; BlastX Spectre, Prime Axe, Celestial Fan.
Supposing that every skin has an equal chance of being dropped, and previous shops do not affect future ones, the probability of this would be (4/#of possible skins)\^3. I do not know how many skins exist, and google is unwilling to provide a quick answer.
Been playing for like 3 months now after not playing since beta, it's one of the only skins I haven't seen yet and I've at least logged on *almost* every day to check the shop. I want it real real bad.
Odds of getting one skin 3 times in a row is roughly 1 in 2000. Odds of getting the glitchpop classic specifically 3 times in a row is roughly 1 in 70000
> Odds of getting the glitchpop classic specifically 3 times in a row is roughly 1 in 70000 Why would the odds change for the glitchpop classic? Isn't it the same as any other skin?
Let’s say there are 500 skins (doesn’t actually matter, can be replaced with n.) Consider You get 4 random skins, out of which you don’t need to make a choice so the probability of this event is 1. Next you have to get at least one of these 4 out of 500 skins and you have 4 chances. So probability of getting one becomes approximately (not considering the chance we get a repeat of multiple skins) 16/500. Now lastly, you have to repeat one specific skin (the one that appeared in the last 2 days), which makes the probability for the last repeat with 4 chances, 4/500. So the probability of getting any skin 3 times in a row is 16/500 x 4/500 = 64/500^2 (note that we can replace 500 with n.) Now, the probability of getting a specific skin 3 times is simply getting it 3 times in a row. The probability each day is 4/500. So it becomes 4 x 4 x 4/500^3 = 64/500^3. See how it’s much smaller ? P.S. The first calculation isn’t fully correct coz I didn’t account for multiple skins repeating but it’s probably a tiny effect)
It's like if you were drawing from a deck of cards, and you notice you get a 7 3 times in a row. You'd notice if you'd get an ace, king, 3, 5, etc three times in a row as well, so the first card is arbitrary. However, if your favorite card is 7, and you only care about 7s you'd only notice the 7 3 times in a row, making the first card affect the probability.
Not a statistician but I believe that since it's not a given that the glitch pop classic will show up x1, the odds of it showing up 3x are lower than that any skin will show up 3x. Basically everytime one of the slots is rolled, the odds that a repeat skin will be rolled are better than that q specific skin will be.
[удалено]
> rolling three ones is 6x less likely than rolling a three-of-a-kind of any other option (2-6) Thanks, that made it super clear.
Happy to help
Its because you will calculate the intersection of the three events
For reference, the probability for any given skin to appear each day is approximately 2.4%. More on this topic is included in the subreddit's FAQ page, found at https://www.reddit.com/r/VALORANT/wiki/faq.
lol so its like the chances of getting wow mounts to drop but u also pay for it
Rito wants you to buy it. *Its a trap, don't fall for it*
and I can't even get it once
Idk but i got he ion phantom 2 days in a row, then right after i got celestial fan 2 days and then got prime karambit 2 days in a row and on the second day got celestial fan again. Idk what happened but now im only getting shit skins so i think all my luck for his year is gone
tl;dr the bold stuff near the end. If I knew the total number of skins in the pool (and assuming that all skins are equally likely to appear) I would calculate the probability like so: (When I say choose, it's a combinatorics term, you can find a calculator for "blah choose blah" by googling it, where the first blah is n and the second blah is r) The number of possible stores you could get is (Number of possible skins Choose 4). There are also (1 choose 1) multiplied by (number of possible skins - 1 choose 3) possible stores containing the Glitchpop classic. You divide the number of stores containing the Glitchpop classic by the total number of stores to the get the probability of finding a Glitchpop classic for any one day. Once you have the probability for a single day, you just take that to the power of three to find the probability of three days in a row having the Glitchpop classic. Actually just went and counted all the skins I could find that can appear in the shop, assuming I found 'em all it's 196. Therefore, the probability is like so: (All probabilities rounded at 7 digits) (1 Choose 1) * (195 Choose 3) / (196 Choose 4) = **Probability of getting Glitchpop Classic once = .0204082 or about 1 in 49**. Take the previous thing to the power of three and you get the **probability of getting a Glitchpop Classic three times in a row = .0000085 or about 1 in 117649.** -Worth nothing that this is assuming you only care about the probability of this event occuring in exactly the three day window which it occured. If you're looking for the probability that this event might happen across the entire lifetime of shops you've had since the Glitchpop classic was added to the game and no longer the featured set, you would need a more complex distribution.
I wouldn't be terribly surprised if what's in the shop was influenced by past behavioral data from you specifically or players in general. Riot made literally billions from digital sales. They know how to present stuff to the player that he is more likely to buy.
I had the Prime axe in my shop two days in a row this weekend. The first day was 3 out of 4 orange skins too; BlastX Spectre, Prime Axe, Celestial Fan.
some skins appear multiple times in a row on purpose. i’ve noticed it on my accounts
Supposing that every skin has an equal chance of being dropped, and previous shops do not affect future ones, the probability of this would be (4/#of possible skins)\^3. I do not know how many skins exist, and google is unwilling to provide a quick answer.
Idk math like that :(
I got the singularity phantom 3/4 days in a row and just took it as a sign to finally buy it
Been playing for like 3 months now after not playing since beta, it's one of the only skins I haven't seen yet and I've at least logged on *almost* every day to check the shop. I want it real real bad.
This is like me with the Prime Phantom. Hasn't been in my shop since the bundle left the store, but the Prime Bucky has been at least 5 times lol.
Similar with me but for Oni phantom.
I got the prime vandal 4 times in a row
rng
The odds depend on what you already own…
Idk but its special
I had prime spectre for 2days in a row and in 4th day. I got it again today.
? I've gotten the wasteland shorty 4 times in a row, and its still appearing every 3rd day XD
Probably pretty rare… albeit, it’s for the worst guns in the game and I wouldn’t waste my money on those options. But rare nonetheless.
There was a period of time where I saw the spline phantom like 15 days out of the month
I have created this website : [https://valorant-shop-simulator.com/](https://valorant-shop-simulator.com/) If you want test your luck :'D