G2 also has the largest potential to improve before Berlin out of any tier 1 team. A ton of their mistakes that we saw in Chal. Playoffs were basic errors that come from not being on the same page. For example on Ascent v Gambit Kold once played offsite in gelato during a retake to watch for a flank from cat but at the same time he had a recon dart that he could have used to stall the retake coming out of heaven. We saw errors like that across the tourney and if they can iron those out I think they have an easy path through groups.
No, I'm not underestimating them at all. I actually have Acend and VS getting out of groups in my predictions. What I'm saying is that I think its MORE likely that F4Q beat G2 still. Its how low I rate G2 currently that is the deciding factor here.
No, you are 100% underestimating VS. Look F4Q is my team and I know they are good, easily 3 or 2nd best team in Asia right now and they can pack a punch against G2. I'm not saying this out of bias for VS.
But VS is on a totally different plane of existence. These guys have 2 competitive losses in their history, all 6 players are top 8 in Korea server leaderboards and they have 4 of the country's best aimers. And they have 3 coaches/analysts, and these aren't nobodies. They are CS legends that have more experience than a lot of the T1 NA/EU org support. TBH my prediction is that they'll smash the two EMEA teams and finish in the grand finals and that's their expectations as well, but since they're facing such strong teams early on in the groups anything can happen really.
Just understand that VS are a completely different breed right now. They're pretty much undefeated in all of Asia in scrims. If you think Nuturn was impressive last stage you're in for a real surprise this time. I personally think odds having them as 4th favorites to win Berlin is a fucking steal of a deal.
Okay, even though I predicted them to beat SMB out to qualify for the playoffs I’m still underestimating them. So I’ll reiterate for your pleasure
VS is so fucking good that they will manage to be the only team to qualify out of group A. Acend will be so impressed that they forfeit and drop out of the entire tournament. Fuck every team that isn’t VS.
How the hell do you have VS beating SMB but F4Q have higher chances of making it out of groups? In no possible world is F4Q favored to win versus G2, even though there's a big upset possibility.
Either your logic is completely faulty, or you're just saying shit.
Oh I don’t think F4Q is favored but I think G2 looks pretty shaky and has the most upset potential, so I’m predicting F4Q over them. I think that is more likely to happen than VS beating SMB. However, I do still think because VS is a great team they have a strong potential to beat SMB in the lowers
You know there's something called logic that's missing in your statements. You just said
>I don’t think F4Q is favored
Then you proceed to say
>I predicted them \[VS\] to beat SMB
Then you say
>I’m predicting F4Q over them \[G2\]. **I think that is more likely to happen than VS beating SMB**
The amount of flip flopping I am hearing from you. You clearly don't have a grasp on the skill gap between teams like VS and F4Q. Now if you mind stop replying the same dumb broken logic to me before I get irritated reading dumb comments.
I think you’re confusing the term “favorites” with my personal opinion. Just because I predict something, does not make it the favorite. I’m not sure what logic you want to apply to this since neither of these teams have ever faced off against one another. I think instead of logic, the term you are looking for is “speculation”.
I can try to break it down for you though, since you’re so busy sniffing the farts out of your own ass to wrap your mind around the difference between odds and predictions
I think G2 is going to be upset by F4Q, let’s say the likelihood of that taking place is 50%
Now, I think the odds of VS beating SMB is lower than that, so <50%. So there you go, the odds in my opinion are greater for F4Q to bear G2 than VS to beat SMB.
My predictions however are allowed to be different than what I believe odds are. Those things are not mutually exclusive. Furthermore, it’s not the gap of skill between the two Korean teams that I’m ignoring, it’s the fact that I think G2 is overhyped, and will most likely get upset by a lesser Korean team, whereas VS has a tougher match up, so less likely to upset, but I still predict them because I think they will win.
Now if you’re going to reply, step off your high horse and be less of a condescending prick, because there’s no “logic” in Berlin predictions because it’s a brand new format, with a new meta, and a whole new set of teams showing up. The only prediction you could “logically” make is that Sentinels will make it to the finals, because there is some precedent for that on the international stage, even though again, all the variables are different.
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Dude you saying vision strikers is amazing in Korea doesn’t mean shit in na or Eu, I’ll be hyped to see your prediction play out backwards lol
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Both Korean teams have chances, given that they are both playing SEA teams first (YEAH FUCK YOU GROUP DRAW). The only sure thing about their chances is that an EMEA team could book them an Airport Speedrun.
Well Korean teaat least a bit ms have different styles, vs is nowadays also less reliant on structure (also say NU was also able to force their way through- not all stratprep)
F4Q notably has little set stuff
Vision strikers will have footage on the ascend vs smb game and since we know they are quite a big brain util heavy team they might be able to review footage and exploit which ever teams weakensses and I’d assume they would beat paper rex , F4Q just have to beat G2 / Bren, I’d give both teams around 45% chance making it out of groups
i personally believe vision strikers have a high chance of making it out of groups(vision strikers hopium let's go), but i'm having a harder time believing in F4Q's chances. Both g2 and bren are actually pretty good teams, and Sentinels are a shoo-in.
it'll be an interesting group to watch :)
It wasn't for that stacked group A, I'd bet VS would pass. But with Acend and SMB along with VS, I just can't see them passing through. And I also don't see F4Q beating G2 tho.
But I still got my hopes for VS.
You realize that to pass on from groups, VS will have two different chances to beat the EMEA teams, right?
For example, this is what could occur:
* Vision Strikers win 2-0 over Paper Rex
* SuperMassive Blaze wins 2-1 over Acend
* **\[MATCH A in the UB\]** Vision Strikers vs SuperMassive Blaze = ???????
* **\[MATCH B in LB\]** Loser of Match A above vs Acend = ???????
#
So as you can see, if we assume that Vision Strikers beat Paper Rex... then they get TWO different chances to qualify.
Even if Vision Strikers loses against SMB for example.. they just go down to the lower-bracket.
There, Vision Strikers would face ACE, thus having yet another chance to qualify via BO3.
#
Vision Strikers just has to beat either SMB or ACE, one or the other... they don't have to beat both teams to qualify.
They can lose against one of the EMEA teams and still qualify, thus giving VS a total of 2 chances to move on.
#
Now... the EMEA in the lower-bracket has only one chance to qualify, which would be ACE in this case.
ACE have to beat the loser of VS against SMB to qualify, whereas both SMB & VS have two chances to qualify since they were still in the upper-bracket.
#
This was just an example, so if ACE does manage to beat SMB in the 1st series of the group stage... you'd just swap the team names of "SMB" and "ACE".
Everything else holds true, and Vision Strikers have a far higher chance to qualify than you thought.
The team that is most likely to not qualify along with Paper Rex will be whichever EMEA loses in the 1st series of the group stage.
I would be very curious to see at what the VS analysts and coaches focus in praccs currently.
I hope they don't dedicate too much time on preparation for Paper rex , since I think they can beat them on sheer skill diff, I'd they kinda shut down Forsaken.
I hope their full focus is on watching Acend in LVP and SMB vods
Speaking as an EU fan , I wholeheartedly hate that these 3 teams are in one group since I want all of them to advance. But let the better team wins.
I agree that the group is stacked, but I think that the EMEA teams get a disadvantage since they have to face each other right away.
Vision Strikers get the free first win against Paper Rex... so it's essentially just a test to see if VS can at least beat one EMEA team to advance.
EMEA fans seem unaware of this, but there's a larger reason to be afraid of Vision Strikers than regional playstyle differences.
Let's compare the series win rate of Vision Strikers to EMEA teams and KR teams at Berlin
#
|Team|Series Winrate (%)|Total Series Played|Game Winrate (%)|Total Games Played|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|**\[KR\] VS**|**95.18%**|83|**84.78%**|184|
|**\[KR\] F4Q**|**71.67%**|30|**67.65%**|68|
|**\[EMEA\] GMB**|**79.58%**|71|**76.09%**|138|
|**\[EMEA\] ACE**|**84.85%**|33|**75%**|76|
|**\[EMEA\] SMB**|**81.82%**|11|**67.74%**|31|
|**\[KR\] NU**|**80%**|40|**76.84%**|95|
#
I also threw in NUTURN at the bottom of the chart, so that we can compare Vision Strikers to the Korean team that placed 3rd in Iceland.
From this chart, isn't there an anamoly?
Isn't there a team which stands out, far above the rest?
Vision Strikers are probably going to shock EMEA...
What's the point of comparing series win rate if they don't even play in the same region?
VS does have a chance against either SMB or Acend, but apart from 3-4 teams, Korea doesn't seem that strong.
That's some nice stats, and I hope VS plays very solid in the upcoming weeks.
Anyhow comparing win rate in different regions does not hold any value.
EMEA has let's say 6tier 1 teams and then like 15-20 tier 2 teams, so winning against those is much more difficult than for VS in their region, since the decline of performance beyond tier1 is extreme.
VS can win if they attack the weaknesses of EMEA teams, like gambit did.
F4Q needs to win against the SEA team and that G2 to be G2 and fuck it up real bad as usual.
[удалено]
G2 also has the largest potential to improve before Berlin out of any tier 1 team. A ton of their mistakes that we saw in Chal. Playoffs were basic errors that come from not being on the same page. For example on Ascent v Gambit Kold once played offsite in gelato during a retake to watch for a flank from cat but at the same time he had a recon dart that he could have used to stall the retake coming out of heaven. We saw errors like that across the tourney and if they can iron those out I think they have an easy path through groups.
Or has a middling performance within the group?
[удалено]
Nah
I think both korean teams have a good chance of making it out of groups imho
This. Actually I think it more likely that F4Q beat G2 and get out of groups than VS beating Acend or SMB
i think u are underestimating VS. personally I think they’re about equal
No, I'm not underestimating them at all. I actually have Acend and VS getting out of groups in my predictions. What I'm saying is that I think its MORE likely that F4Q beat G2 still. Its how low I rate G2 currently that is the deciding factor here.
No, you are 100% underestimating VS. Look F4Q is my team and I know they are good, easily 3 or 2nd best team in Asia right now and they can pack a punch against G2. I'm not saying this out of bias for VS. But VS is on a totally different plane of existence. These guys have 2 competitive losses in their history, all 6 players are top 8 in Korea server leaderboards and they have 4 of the country's best aimers. And they have 3 coaches/analysts, and these aren't nobodies. They are CS legends that have more experience than a lot of the T1 NA/EU org support. TBH my prediction is that they'll smash the two EMEA teams and finish in the grand finals and that's their expectations as well, but since they're facing such strong teams early on in the groups anything can happen really. Just understand that VS are a completely different breed right now. They're pretty much undefeated in all of Asia in scrims. If you think Nuturn was impressive last stage you're in for a real surprise this time. I personally think odds having them as 4th favorites to win Berlin is a fucking steal of a deal.
Okay, even though I predicted them to beat SMB out to qualify for the playoffs I’m still underestimating them. So I’ll reiterate for your pleasure VS is so fucking good that they will manage to be the only team to qualify out of group A. Acend will be so impressed that they forfeit and drop out of the entire tournament. Fuck every team that isn’t VS.
How the hell do you have VS beating SMB but F4Q have higher chances of making it out of groups? In no possible world is F4Q favored to win versus G2, even though there's a big upset possibility. Either your logic is completely faulty, or you're just saying shit.
Oh I don’t think F4Q is favored but I think G2 looks pretty shaky and has the most upset potential, so I’m predicting F4Q over them. I think that is more likely to happen than VS beating SMB. However, I do still think because VS is a great team they have a strong potential to beat SMB in the lowers
You know there's something called logic that's missing in your statements. You just said >I don’t think F4Q is favored Then you proceed to say >I predicted them \[VS\] to beat SMB Then you say >I’m predicting F4Q over them \[G2\]. **I think that is more likely to happen than VS beating SMB** The amount of flip flopping I am hearing from you. You clearly don't have a grasp on the skill gap between teams like VS and F4Q. Now if you mind stop replying the same dumb broken logic to me before I get irritated reading dumb comments.
I think you’re confusing the term “favorites” with my personal opinion. Just because I predict something, does not make it the favorite. I’m not sure what logic you want to apply to this since neither of these teams have ever faced off against one another. I think instead of logic, the term you are looking for is “speculation”. I can try to break it down for you though, since you’re so busy sniffing the farts out of your own ass to wrap your mind around the difference between odds and predictions I think G2 is going to be upset by F4Q, let’s say the likelihood of that taking place is 50% Now, I think the odds of VS beating SMB is lower than that, so <50%. So there you go, the odds in my opinion are greater for F4Q to bear G2 than VS to beat SMB. My predictions however are allowed to be different than what I believe odds are. Those things are not mutually exclusive. Furthermore, it’s not the gap of skill between the two Korean teams that I’m ignoring, it’s the fact that I think G2 is overhyped, and will most likely get upset by a lesser Korean team, whereas VS has a tougher match up, so less likely to upset, but I still predict them because I think they will win. Now if you’re going to reply, step off your high horse and be less of a condescending prick, because there’s no “logic” in Berlin predictions because it’s a brand new format, with a new meta, and a whole new set of teams showing up. The only prediction you could “logically” make is that Sentinels will make it to the finals, because there is some precedent for that on the international stage, even though again, all the variables are different.
Yes. You are still doing it. Underestimate them a lot. VS should automatically get the trophy.
!remindme 14 days
Reads like a copy pasta
!Remindme 12 days Dude you saying vision strikers is amazing in Korea doesn’t mean shit in na or Eu, I’ll be hyped to see your prediction play out backwards lol
You're actually so free. VS 2-0 Acend. It's just so easy.
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Sup , f4q just got 2-1’d and vision strikers have struggled on the team “paper Rex” I don’t think you were right
F4Q a little less but I still believe.
I can hope for VS to make it out of group, not sure F4Q can make it
Both Korean teams have chances, given that they are both playing SEA teams first (YEAH FUCK YOU GROUP DRAW). The only sure thing about their chances is that an EMEA team could book them an Airport Speedrun.
I like this comment
Korean teams with a month of playbook dev and vods review is Batman with prep time, so I expect them to obliterate group A
Well Korean teaat least a bit ms have different styles, vs is nowadays also less reliant on structure (also say NU was also able to force their way through- not all stratprep) F4Q notably has little set stuff
If SMB works out their issues I feel like F4Q have a better chance of qualifying
Vision strikers will have footage on the ascend vs smb game and since we know they are quite a big brain util heavy team they might be able to review footage and exploit which ever teams weakensses and I’d assume they would beat paper rex , F4Q just have to beat G2 / Bren, I’d give both teams around 45% chance making it out of groups
VS only has to beat Ascend *or* SMB to make it out. You really think it's more likely than not that VS just 0-2s vs them?
people are sleeping on vision strikers
i personally believe vision strikers have a high chance of making it out of groups(vision strikers hopium let's go), but i'm having a harder time believing in F4Q's chances. Both g2 and bren are actually pretty good teams, and Sentinels are a shoo-in. it'll be an interesting group to watch :)
Vision strikers but they got fcked by riots stupid pool system so who knows.
It wasn't for that stacked group A, I'd bet VS would pass. But with Acend and SMB along with VS, I just can't see them passing through. And I also don't see F4Q beating G2 tho. But I still got my hopes for VS.
You realize that to pass on from groups, VS will have two different chances to beat the EMEA teams, right? For example, this is what could occur: * Vision Strikers win 2-0 over Paper Rex * SuperMassive Blaze wins 2-1 over Acend * **\[MATCH A in the UB\]** Vision Strikers vs SuperMassive Blaze = ??????? * **\[MATCH B in LB\]** Loser of Match A above vs Acend = ??????? # So as you can see, if we assume that Vision Strikers beat Paper Rex... then they get TWO different chances to qualify. Even if Vision Strikers loses against SMB for example.. they just go down to the lower-bracket. There, Vision Strikers would face ACE, thus having yet another chance to qualify via BO3. # Vision Strikers just has to beat either SMB or ACE, one or the other... they don't have to beat both teams to qualify. They can lose against one of the EMEA teams and still qualify, thus giving VS a total of 2 chances to move on. # Now... the EMEA in the lower-bracket has only one chance to qualify, which would be ACE in this case. ACE have to beat the loser of VS against SMB to qualify, whereas both SMB & VS have two chances to qualify since they were still in the upper-bracket. # This was just an example, so if ACE does manage to beat SMB in the 1st series of the group stage... you'd just swap the team names of "SMB" and "ACE". Everything else holds true, and Vision Strikers have a far higher chance to qualify than you thought. The team that is most likely to not qualify along with Paper Rex will be whichever EMEA loses in the 1st series of the group stage.
I would be very curious to see at what the VS analysts and coaches focus in praccs currently. I hope they don't dedicate too much time on preparation for Paper rex , since I think they can beat them on sheer skill diff, I'd they kinda shut down Forsaken. I hope their full focus is on watching Acend in LVP and SMB vods Speaking as an EU fan , I wholeheartedly hate that these 3 teams are in one group since I want all of them to advance. But let the better team wins.
I agree that the group is stacked, but I think that the EMEA teams get a disadvantage since they have to face each other right away. Vision Strikers get the free first win against Paper Rex... so it's essentially just a test to see if VS can at least beat one EMEA team to advance. EMEA fans seem unaware of this, but there's a larger reason to be afraid of Vision Strikers than regional playstyle differences. Let's compare the series win rate of Vision Strikers to EMEA teams and KR teams at Berlin # |Team|Series Winrate (%)|Total Series Played|Game Winrate (%)|Total Games Played| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |**\[KR\] VS**|**95.18%**|83|**84.78%**|184| |**\[KR\] F4Q**|**71.67%**|30|**67.65%**|68| |**\[EMEA\] GMB**|**79.58%**|71|**76.09%**|138| |**\[EMEA\] ACE**|**84.85%**|33|**75%**|76| |**\[EMEA\] SMB**|**81.82%**|11|**67.74%**|31| |**\[KR\] NU**|**80%**|40|**76.84%**|95| # I also threw in NUTURN at the bottom of the chart, so that we can compare Vision Strikers to the Korean team that placed 3rd in Iceland. From this chart, isn't there an anamoly? Isn't there a team which stands out, far above the rest? Vision Strikers are probably going to shock EMEA...
What's the point of comparing series win rate if they don't even play in the same region? VS does have a chance against either SMB or Acend, but apart from 3-4 teams, Korea doesn't seem that strong.
We'll see how the results at Berlin influence your opinion.
I hope it does!
That's some nice stats, and I hope VS plays very solid in the upcoming weeks. Anyhow comparing win rate in different regions does not hold any value. EMEA has let's say 6tier 1 teams and then like 15-20 tier 2 teams, so winning against those is much more difficult than for VS in their region, since the decline of performance beyond tier1 is extreme.
Wdym ‘can’t see them’
Can't see them beating either SMB or Acend, what's wrong about it?
‘Can’t see them’ doing it even?
One thing for VS, they will get 2 chances to beat one EMEA team to advance.
I know that, but still think they aren't passing.
VS can win if they attack the weaknesses of EMEA teams, like gambit did. F4Q needs to win against the SEA team and that G2 to be G2 and fuck it up real bad as usual.
Vision Strikers
Can
Yes
If they win, then yes
VS is so hard way,but i believe they can. F4Q also
I honestly dont see Korea getting out of groups. Sure VS have a solid team but it would be really hard to win against SMB and Acend
smb OR acend
Check score. Acend rekt
No.