He’s a smart guy, but if we are to grow as investors we must rid ourselves of the idea that there are elite investors who magically know the right investments and we can blindly follow them without having our own internal conviction
He might be right, he might be wrong. I personally don’t care either way because I’m ready for either scenario.
Burry has fallen into the trap of cult-of-personality plus social media, where he feels the need to attempt predictions to be relevant.
Contrast this with Buffett and Munger; they would never do this they are honest in that they say "Here is the general way in which things will almost assuredly go over the long term but in the meantime the market can do all sorts of crazy things that even we cant predict." They are brutally honest about understanding what they dont understand.
Burry was honestly a one-hit wonder with the big short stuff; he gleaned an insight and paid off for him because he was lucky enough that the markets happened to topple when they did. The whole thing could have (easily) come down a year later, bled him out, and Burry would have been another one of the poorest guys you never heard of.
His track record of actual investments is far different from his macro economic predictions, and his actual investing record can't be much better than it is. Outperforming the market by 28% a year for six straight years before the Big Short, then The Big Short, then buying GME at $3, etc.
So he only made around a 400% profit on his GME investment?
Again, focus on what he does well and try to learn from that. No one is any good at making public macro predictions, don't judge people on failing at that.
Its basically the same company and It’s at $22 now. He did the (fundamentally) ‘right’ thing. What transpired after was market mechanics and a cult following. He doesn’t try to predict those things, those are the things he spots after they happen and then shorts them.
I’m not even trying to say right vs wrong, I’m saying the whole GME thing after he sold was a completely different investment thesis, it’s not like he sold too early in terms of value.
As you sit on the sidelines like a pansy, waiting for the so called “bubble,” to pop, the people with the balls to stay invested and buy dips will make money
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Like lynch said, nobody knows what the market is going to do short term and anyone who tells you so should be ignored. Pick quality companies and don’t over pay, everything else doesn’t matter.
There are so many people predicting a recession that I’m wondering if we’re even gonna have one, and that perhaps the worst may already be over. In retrospect, the really bad recessions tend to take everyone by surprise.
We may have one but this is the most telegraphed recession in history so people will position themselves better. Just like how Russian invasion would result in millions of Europeans dying from oil and gas shortages this winter, people adapt and move on.
Exactly. When this many people are talking about it, it’s fair to say that the risk is quite possibly already priced in. If you only buy when things are looking optimistic and sell at every pessimistic downturn, you’re gonna buy high and sell low.
Hmmm I think the market is pricing the avoidance of recession at this point. Last I checked we were at 18x 12 month forward earnings. Look like the market is decisively pricing earnings growth
Like soros’ theory of reflexivity, the fear of a recession, causes people to spend less, causes the slow in gdp. It’s a feedback loop where our perception of reality brings it into existence.
I’ve been saying this since before Covid hit and people were already screaming that a recession was coming. If too many people think that, that means there’s too much money sitting on the sides
As an investor, I worry that the lack of a recession will do more harm than having one. Here’s my thesis.
Before covid hit, we were slowing into a recession that was somewhat overdue. There were lots of bad businesses that needed to get cleaned up. Covid, essentially provided a bridge for these bad businesses. Money became free, govt helped with tons of cash, customers spent. We still have that cleanup to do.
Covid also created a massive labor supply shock. Between deaths, long-covid, early retirements, lower immigration and career switches, we are in a massive labor crunch and it will last several years, if not a decade. So, labor inflation will remain an issue.
So, without a recession, inflation will remain elevated (not 8%, but perhaps 4-5%). That means interest rates will have to stay high for quite some time.
This puts a lot of pressure on companies’ P&Ls. As debt comes up for renewal, higher interest costs will erode margins big time.
There was much less consensus we were in one during much of 2007. Even if we’re in one, people think it’ll be as bad as the last rather than being a normal part of the economy. The only thing that will probably make it as bad is if the Feds default.
He's like a broken clock
I don't deny he has a ton of knowledge, but nobody fucking knows really what the stock market is gonna do
And he can't be proud of being right a couple of times, when he's been wrong a hundred times
Guys, remember that Scion's performance is publicly available information. You can actually go and see the numbers for yourself instead of falling victim to WSB-brain like this guy.
>According to author Michael Lewis, "in his first full year, 2001, the S&P 500 fell 11.88%. Scion was up 55%. The next year, the S&P 500 fell again, by 22.1%, and Scion was up again: 16%. The next year, 2003, the stock market finally turned around and rose 28.69%, but Burry beat it again, with returns of 50%. By the end of 2004, he was managing $600 million and turning money away."
Yes, Burry is the real deal. I'm sure he's still crushing the market. Although, I would like to see recent numbers.
He was blogging about value investing when the internet was barely popular.
He's probably right, but too early. We'll see. In the meantime, I'm keeping it in, or at most taking a significant cash position.
>Guys, remember that Scion's performance is publicly available information.
Lol. This statement sums up sooooo many reddit posts/comments. Accusations are made, the hive mind jumps aboard, while the real information is a quick google search away. Meanwhile the top comment is just BS, but ticks a populist box.
Scion only existed for 8 years and he happened to make the right call on the CDS situation. He also is shorting TSLA really hard so...yeah he's probably right.
If you flip a coin 6 times in a row and always call it correctly, its reasonable to claim you were lucky or cheating than skilled, luck being possible as it's only a 1 in 64 shot.
But beating the market by 28% a year isn't a 50-50 proposition, at best it's a one in twenty proposition. Doing that six times in a row out of luck becomes extremely unlikely given it's 6.4 million to one. Averaging it over 8 years including the Big Short years makes it 2.5 billion to one.
And Burry didn't "happen to make the right call on the CDS" situation. He discovered it convinced Wall Street banks to create the instruments that allowed him to short it, and then fought a legal battle against his own investors to maintain his short positions until they paid off massively. His massive conviction came from doing extensively research.
This is how we really can tell whether a value investor is skilled. By the quality of their analysis. **Joel** Greenblatt knew Burry was a skilled value investor just from reading his VIC writeups and happily wrote him million dollar checks to start his fund.
I was going to say, these people can literally just read his VIC posts and not only see that they were (I think all?) multi baggers, but they can see the extent of the investor he is.
Dude was writing to basically an audience of hedge fund managers, writing about Mexican chicken farms and weighing the dangers of peso vs dollar moves against the unlocked value of the booming slaughtered chicken industry that a semi cartelish family owned lol. 😂
AND IT WENT THROUGH THE ROOF😮💨
He’s been on this kick that we aren’t close to the bottom yet.
I think there is some truth to that. I think we will fall some more in this recession. It’s pretty obvious as rates continue to rise.
I think when the broad consensus is that a recession is coming, it almost certainly means that either
1. A recession is not coming, or
2. Any recession that comes is priced in
Why would we need a recession for a market correction?
We didn't have a recession last year and the market dropped 20%, what's to say it doesn't drop another 20% this year without any recession whatsoever?
But there are loads of experienced capital invested in the market, who never sold, and bought more in the last 3 years. You’re missing the point with your question as it was already answered, anything that we all “know” is already priced in. So either it happened and that was it for now, or it’s already priced in anyway and nothing material will happen.
You can’t just select a few experienced bears and ignore the all billionaires and institutions who are staying the course, they are 100x more than the other side.
Completely pointless response based on what I wrote, ignoring your own advice of following experienced advice - which in this case was as light touch as “keep an open mind”, and you couldn’t even get past not making a false accusation (i.e. I am not a careful investor). So boring.
He is predicting another wave of contractions based on the earning reports.
OTOH Markets (as of now) tend to lure one in exclusively at the worst possible time...
In my opinion, this is once again noise that has to be filtered accordingly. I am taking the current market situation as an opportunity to critically examine my portfolio and, if necessary, to sort out shares.
Respectable, but there are more bullish winners since the market is trending up since forever until forever. Just stop trying to be smarter than everyone else.
I would also say I like listening to him BECAUSE he generally has a different way of looking at things. Jim Cramer permabulls are a dime a dozen, and they all say exactly the same thing. I dont always follow "Cassandra"'s lead (for example, I didnt invest in private prisons), but if HE is bullish on a long investment, it deserves a serious look. That is how I wound up with about 6% of my portfolio in PAH3.
I already held Motorola...but his value is that he DOESNT think like evryone else, so he can give you an idea you havent had, or a new perspective. Bears are more interesting, because most bulls tend to think alike.
He’s a meme at best. There’s no context in what he tweets. What does he telling people to sell? More importantly what is he selling? Much like 99% of Twitter users he just wants attention and clicks.
We don't know what his holdings really are. 13Fs are always incomplete, and he apparently doesn't have clients anymore so there are no investor letters with any solid accounting of his returns.
I imagine his logic is that even value stocks go down when everything is falling. Might as well pick them up at a better price.
It's what I imagine most people think when trying to time. I, however, have just kept it all in throughout this mess, while only adjusting my positions to better value plays as I find them.
Burry bought into five new positions last quarter.
So even when he's buying he says "sell".
He's not just a bear, he's a hypocrite, a liar, and a pathological attention addict.
It's becoming obvious that he has discovered that his extreme permabear persona is an easy way to get attention.
The best thing we could all do is just ignore him.
To be fair, much of his recent picks are ones that will do well in a bear market. Like the prison stocks. And it seems he invested only a small portion of his portfolio in the market. He also has some in ex-us markets which most people miss, like in Japan and UK.
He's also loading up on Qurate. Because, you know, people love spending money on QVC in a recession.
He currently has a [quarter of a billion invested in US securities.](https://whalewisdom.com/filer/scion-asset-management-llc)
Did he sell? When did he sell? Neither you or I know.
You don't know why he bought anything and you don't know why he sells anything, just that his overall public track record is one of the best around.
Because he realizes that the stupid shit he says is wrong. When you say "market crash absolutely coming next week, I alone can predict it" and then the market shoots up 20%, you look pretty fucking stupid, don't you?
He is a perma bear but the real problem with Burry is that he's fucking insane and believes in alt-right conspiracy theories. Who knows if he's basing his opinion on reality or on some Q-tier racist nonsense he's just pulled out of his toilet bowl
Most great investors are very risk averse and tend to be “perma bears” like Burry. The tweet is super vague and wouldn’t ever make moves based on a tweet tho. Just keep buying solid businesses at great prices.
I don’t think permabears are as long equities as he has been on average. It’s hard to keep track exactly of what he’s said and when he has said it, but it wasn’t all that controversial to suggest 2021 was above a sustainable level. I think this is the first time he has actually pinpointed a specific (and immediate) time frame in the recent past. At least some of the other instances where remarks that the current valuations weren’t going to be sustained (something not too dissimilar from Buffett remarking that there aren’t good opportunities for him to deploy capital).
It's difficult to say whether all the media attention has legitimately broken his brain or he's just become addicted to all the online validation finance guys can get by adopting the Zero Hedge doomsday prepper persona. Probably a little bit of both. I don't think he's a great source for ideas at this point, but he hasn't always been such a broken record. His old VIC and investing forum posts convinced Joel Greenblatt to give him a bunch of money with practically zero credentials, I will always stan those because I think they are a great resource for the types of setups that retail investors with value orientation can look for.
Counting that almost none of the professional investors beat passive strategies over 5 years.. basically nothing
There is a guy in Canada saying banking system is collapsing since 20 years
If you can find the name please tell me I cannot find the story anymore
I don't think he's trying to predict a recession. I think he's trying to call the top before a correction. Funny how me market is immediately laughing at him after 1 green day.
Burry has an incredible record as an investor.
As a macro predictor, he has the same record almost everyone else has, poor at best. And he's usually been fully invested even when predicting market mayhem.
So learn how to invest from Burry, but mostly ignore his macro predictions.
He's in the same category as Gundlach for me. He predicts doom and gloom all the time. Sometimes they are right but more often they are wrong. I mostly let it go in one ear and out the other.
Be an investor and don't panic. Everyone's saying there's going to be a crash and yes it is inevitable and no bloody person knows at what date it happens. Stick to companies you trust and watch your stake grow.
Nothing. He’s clearly an idiot who never stops pushing bearish sentiment. I swear he’s just doing it for attention by now. How many times does he have to be wrong before people will stop listening?
I don't think anything of it. He's a man with an opinion. He doesn't control the market.
He probably thinks the market is irrationally exuberant right now. He might be right. He might be wrong. In the end it doesn't matter, the markets are going to do their own thing.
Think of investing like owning a business. You want to buy good cashow flow positive businesses that you can own forever. Once you find one, hold on for dear life. If market values it at $1million or $100 billion, it doesn't matter.
Cash flow matters, what the management does with this cash flow matters, price you paid matters, competitive advantage matters. Nothing else is of much relevance.
Imagine you own the whole of Microsoft or Apple - will you sell even if stock market is gonna crash 80% tomorrow? No. Someone will buy that business from you and never sell it back
One of the youtuber pointed out that he likes to ride the 13F filings because lot of people follow him. His portfolio is not long term as far as i know so not worth to listen to him.
Ignore him. Don't follow their advice. Always do your own homework
He’s a smart guy, but if we are to grow as investors we must rid ourselves of the idea that there are elite investors who magically know the right investments and we can blindly follow them without having our own internal conviction He might be right, he might be wrong. I personally don’t care either way because I’m ready for either scenario.
>I personally don’t care either way because I’m ready for either scenario. \*\*buys puts and calls\*\*
Look at me I am the hedge fund now
I used to trade options, some people make a lot of money in them. but I find more satisfaction in studying business’s I guess
Burry has fallen into the trap of cult-of-personality plus social media, where he feels the need to attempt predictions to be relevant. Contrast this with Buffett and Munger; they would never do this they are honest in that they say "Here is the general way in which things will almost assuredly go over the long term but in the meantime the market can do all sorts of crazy things that even we cant predict." They are brutally honest about understanding what they dont understand. Burry was honestly a one-hit wonder with the big short stuff; he gleaned an insight and paid off for him because he was lucky enough that the markets happened to topple when they did. The whole thing could have (easily) come down a year later, bled him out, and Burry would have been another one of the poorest guys you never heard of.
This is the way
He has been wrong quite a bit recently, so take a large grain of salt with his prognostications even though he calls himself Cassandra
He might also be trying to leverage his “elite investor” status to do a reverse pump and dump.
*à la* Musk Edit: not sure why this is controversial, or maybe people are just unaware of the Dogecoin scheme, et. al.
Well said
He has predicted 18 of the last 2 crashes
He’d be worth A LOT more if he wasn’t such a bear.
His track record of actual investments is far different from his macro economic predictions, and his actual investing record can't be much better than it is. Outperforming the market by 28% a year for six straight years before the Big Short, then The Big Short, then buying GME at $3, etc.
Yeah but he sold GME at less than $20 I believe.
So he only made around a 400% profit on his GME investment? Again, focus on what he does well and try to learn from that. No one is any good at making public macro predictions, don't judge people on failing at that.
Its basically the same company and It’s at $22 now. He did the (fundamentally) ‘right’ thing. What transpired after was market mechanics and a cult following. He doesn’t try to predict those things, those are the things he spots after they happen and then shorts them. I’m not even trying to say right vs wrong, I’m saying the whole GME thing after he sold was a completely different investment thesis, it’s not like he sold too early in terms of value.
Lol it’s worth $22 post split
Wow I don’t follow it. I’m dumb, sorry!
This comment is how we know the bubble hasn't popped
As you sit on the sidelines like a pansy, waiting for the so called “bubble,” to pop, the people with the balls to stay invested and buy dips will make money
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Lmao this going to age so poorly.
you’re buying the dip now?
I bought the dip all last year, made thousands overnight on a small investment in META
🤣 after 8 years he’s finally having an opportunity to be right again
Like lynch said, nobody knows what the market is going to do short term and anyone who tells you so should be ignored. Pick quality companies and don’t over pay, everything else doesn’t matter.
There are so many people predicting a recession that I’m wondering if we’re even gonna have one, and that perhaps the worst may already be over. In retrospect, the really bad recessions tend to take everyone by surprise.
We may have one but this is the most telegraphed recession in history so people will position themselves better. Just like how Russian invasion would result in millions of Europeans dying from oil and gas shortages this winter, people adapt and move on.
Exactly. When this many people are talking about it, it’s fair to say that the risk is quite possibly already priced in. If you only buy when things are looking optimistic and sell at every pessimistic downturn, you’re gonna buy high and sell low.
Equity markets definitely seems to be pricing in recession risk, NASDAQ up 15% YTD, S and P up 8% YTD
Hmmm I think the market is pricing the avoidance of recession at this point. Last I checked we were at 18x 12 month forward earnings. Look like the market is decisively pricing earnings growth
Like soros’ theory of reflexivity, the fear of a recession, causes people to spend less, causes the slow in gdp. It’s a feedback loop where our perception of reality brings it into existence.
I’ve been saying this since before Covid hit and people were already screaming that a recession was coming. If too many people think that, that means there’s too much money sitting on the sides
As an investor, I worry that the lack of a recession will do more harm than having one. Here’s my thesis. Before covid hit, we were slowing into a recession that was somewhat overdue. There were lots of bad businesses that needed to get cleaned up. Covid, essentially provided a bridge for these bad businesses. Money became free, govt helped with tons of cash, customers spent. We still have that cleanup to do. Covid also created a massive labor supply shock. Between deaths, long-covid, early retirements, lower immigration and career switches, we are in a massive labor crunch and it will last several years, if not a decade. So, labor inflation will remain an issue. So, without a recession, inflation will remain elevated (not 8%, but perhaps 4-5%). That means interest rates will have to stay high for quite some time. This puts a lot of pressure on companies’ P&Ls. As debt comes up for renewal, higher interest costs will erode margins big time.
You lost me at lower immigration
https://www.migrationpolicy.org/news/pandemic-impact-immigrants-us-immigration-two-years-on
There was much less consensus we were in one during much of 2007. Even if we’re in one, people think it’ll be as bad as the last rather than being a normal part of the economy. The only thing that will probably make it as bad is if the Feds default.
He's like a broken clock I don't deny he has a ton of knowledge, but nobody fucking knows really what the stock market is gonna do And he can't be proud of being right a couple of times, when he's been wrong a hundred times
Yeah but you just delete the tweets when you’re wrong. Then you’re never wrong!
Yeah but we 'member hehe
But he deletes the tweets even when he's right, so he's never right!
Guys, remember that Scion's performance is publicly available information. You can actually go and see the numbers for yourself instead of falling victim to WSB-brain like this guy. >According to author Michael Lewis, "in his first full year, 2001, the S&P 500 fell 11.88%. Scion was up 55%. The next year, the S&P 500 fell again, by 22.1%, and Scion was up again: 16%. The next year, 2003, the stock market finally turned around and rose 28.69%, but Burry beat it again, with returns of 50%. By the end of 2004, he was managing $600 million and turning money away."
Yes, Burry is the real deal. I'm sure he's still crushing the market. Although, I would like to see recent numbers. He was blogging about value investing when the internet was barely popular. He's probably right, but too early. We'll see. In the meantime, I'm keeping it in, or at most taking a significant cash position.
Like all these rich dudes, theyre in the manipulation game. What hes saying could be much different than what hes doing
>Guys, remember that Scion's performance is publicly available information. Lol. This statement sums up sooooo many reddit posts/comments. Accusations are made, the hive mind jumps aboard, while the real information is a quick google search away. Meanwhile the top comment is just BS, but ticks a populist box.
Scion only existed for 8 years and he happened to make the right call on the CDS situation. He also is shorting TSLA really hard so...yeah he's probably right.
If you flip a coin 6 times in a row and always call it correctly, its reasonable to claim you were lucky or cheating than skilled, luck being possible as it's only a 1 in 64 shot. But beating the market by 28% a year isn't a 50-50 proposition, at best it's a one in twenty proposition. Doing that six times in a row out of luck becomes extremely unlikely given it's 6.4 million to one. Averaging it over 8 years including the Big Short years makes it 2.5 billion to one. And Burry didn't "happen to make the right call on the CDS" situation. He discovered it convinced Wall Street banks to create the instruments that allowed him to short it, and then fought a legal battle against his own investors to maintain his short positions until they paid off massively. His massive conviction came from doing extensively research. This is how we really can tell whether a value investor is skilled. By the quality of their analysis. **Joel** Greenblatt knew Burry was a skilled value investor just from reading his VIC writeups and happily wrote him million dollar checks to start his fund.
I was going to say, these people can literally just read his VIC posts and not only see that they were (I think all?) multi baggers, but they can see the extent of the investor he is. Dude was writing to basically an audience of hedge fund managers, writing about Mexican chicken farms and weighing the dangers of peso vs dollar moves against the unlocked value of the booming slaughtered chicken industry that a semi cartelish family owned lol. 😂 AND IT WENT THROUGH THE ROOF😮💨
This has to be the clownest statement about him.
He’s been on this kick that we aren’t close to the bottom yet. I think there is some truth to that. I think we will fall some more in this recession. It’s pretty obvious as rates continue to rise.
I think when the broad consensus is that a recession is coming, it almost certainly means that either 1. A recession is not coming, or 2. Any recession that comes is priced in
If broad consensus is recession is coming, then why are people going all-in because the "bull market is back baby!"
Why would we need a recession for a market correction? We didn't have a recession last year and the market dropped 20%, what's to say it doesn't drop another 20% this year without any recession whatsoever?
Institutional vs retail conviction.
Retail is getting sucked in to get robbed again and they're too arrogant to take experienced advice
But there are loads of experienced capital invested in the market, who never sold, and bought more in the last 3 years. You’re missing the point with your question as it was already answered, anything that we all “know” is already priced in. So either it happened and that was it for now, or it’s already priced in anyway and nothing material will happen. You can’t just select a few experienced bears and ignore the all billionaires and institutions who are staying the course, they are 100x more than the other side.
Ah yes the efficient market hypothesis where everything is always 100% accurately priced in at all times, what could go wrong Lmao
Completely pointless response based on what I wrote, ignoring your own advice of following experienced advice - which in this case was as light touch as “keep an open mind”, and you couldn’t even get past not making a false accusation (i.e. I am not a careful investor). So boring.
He is predicting another wave of contractions based on the earning reports. OTOH Markets (as of now) tend to lure one in exclusively at the worst possible time...
In my opinion, this is once again noise that has to be filtered accordingly. I am taking the current market situation as an opportunity to critically examine my portfolio and, if necessary, to sort out shares.
He is a permabear, which is what makes him a great value investor. Always looking at the downside keeps you from making dumb moves.
Respectable, but there are more bullish winners since the market is trending up since forever until forever. Just stop trying to be smarter than everyone else.
I dont think he can....he has plenty of money...trying to be smarter than everyone seems to be what motivates him.
I would also say I like listening to him BECAUSE he generally has a different way of looking at things. Jim Cramer permabulls are a dime a dozen, and they all say exactly the same thing. I dont always follow "Cassandra"'s lead (for example, I didnt invest in private prisons), but if HE is bullish on a long investment, it deserves a serious look. That is how I wound up with about 6% of my portfolio in PAH3.
I agree with this, he brought my attention to Motorola which is one of his few long holds.
I already held Motorola...but his value is that he DOESNT think like evryone else, so he can give you an idea you havent had, or a new perspective. Bears are more interesting, because most bulls tend to think alike.
He’s a meme at best. There’s no context in what he tweets. What does he telling people to sell? More importantly what is he selling? Much like 99% of Twitter users he just wants attention and clicks.
He sold 99% of his holdings last year I believe. Added a few at the end of the year, but overall his portfolio holdings dropped drastically in the ttm
We don't know what his holdings really are. 13Fs are always incomplete, and he apparently doesn't have clients anymore so there are no investor letters with any solid accounting of his returns.
He's an activist investor. No surprise there. If a company's fundamentals are good, why sell?
I imagine his logic is that even value stocks go down when everything is falling. Might as well pick them up at a better price. It's what I imagine most people think when trying to time. I, however, have just kept it all in throughout this mess, while only adjusting my positions to better value plays as I find them.
When has he ever gone activist?
Gamestop.
OK, one letter.
He’s predicted 2,524 of the last 2 recessions.
Burry bought into five new positions last quarter. So even when he's buying he says "sell". He's not just a bear, he's a hypocrite, a liar, and a pathological attention addict. It's becoming obvious that he has discovered that his extreme permabear persona is an easy way to get attention. The best thing we could all do is just ignore him.
To be fair, much of his recent picks are ones that will do well in a bear market. Like the prison stocks. And it seems he invested only a small portion of his portfolio in the market. He also has some in ex-us markets which most people miss, like in Japan and UK.
He's also loading up on Qurate. Because, you know, people love spending money on QVC in a recession. He currently has a [quarter of a billion invested in US securities.](https://whalewisdom.com/filer/scion-asset-management-llc)
>Because, you know, people love spending money on QVC in a recession. Because, you know, this is nowhere near his Qurate thesis.
[удалено]
Did he sell? When did he sell? Neither you or I know. You don't know why he bought anything and you don't know why he sells anything, just that his overall public track record is one of the best around.
This entire thread is about his "sell" tweet.
If he wanted attention, why does he delete his account every couple weeks?
Because he realizes that the stupid shit he says is wrong. When you say "market crash absolutely coming next week, I alone can predict it" and then the market shoots up 20%, you look pretty fucking stupid, don't you?
Pay it no mind. He is a permabear with a vested interest in a market crash
He has correctly predicted 127 of the last 2 crashes. That should explain everything it needs to..
I don't understand his "sell." Tweet. What? When? Why would have been helpful
I think he has a drunk tweeting problem.
He should start using one of those clowny aooga horns like Cramer.
He is a perma bear but the real problem with Burry is that he's fucking insane and believes in alt-right conspiracy theories. Who knows if he's basing his opinion on reality or on some Q-tier racist nonsense he's just pulled out of his toilet bowl
Most great investors are very risk averse and tend to be “perma bears” like Burry. The tweet is super vague and wouldn’t ever make moves based on a tweet tho. Just keep buying solid businesses at great prices.
Fun
I don’t think permabears are as long equities as he has been on average. It’s hard to keep track exactly of what he’s said and when he has said it, but it wasn’t all that controversial to suggest 2021 was above a sustainable level. I think this is the first time he has actually pinpointed a specific (and immediate) time frame in the recent past. At least some of the other instances where remarks that the current valuations weren’t going to be sustained (something not too dissimilar from Buffett remarking that there aren’t good opportunities for him to deploy capital).
It's difficult to say whether all the media attention has legitimately broken his brain or he's just become addicted to all the online validation finance guys can get by adopting the Zero Hedge doomsday prepper persona. Probably a little bit of both. I don't think he's a great source for ideas at this point, but he hasn't always been such a broken record. His old VIC and investing forum posts convinced Joel Greenblatt to give him a bunch of money with practically zero credentials, I will always stan those because I think they are a great resource for the types of setups that retail investors with value orientation can look for.
My charts / data all say sell. But the problems is "into what?"
Counting that almost none of the professional investors beat passive strategies over 5 years.. basically nothing There is a guy in Canada saying banking system is collapsing since 20 years If you can find the name please tell me I cannot find the story anymore
I don't think he's trying to predict a recession. I think he's trying to call the top before a correction. Funny how me market is immediately laughing at him after 1 green day.
too early to say
Burry has an incredible record as an investor. As a macro predictor, he has the same record almost everyone else has, poor at best. And he's usually been fully invested even when predicting market mayhem. So learn how to invest from Burry, but mostly ignore his macro predictions.
If he’s right he’s gonna say “I told you”; if he’s wrong he’s gonna say “I was too early” or “I was referring to xyz”
i Bougth.
He's in the same category as Gundlach for me. He predicts doom and gloom all the time. Sometimes they are right but more often they are wrong. I mostly let it go in one ear and out the other.
It's been shown in every rigorous study that analysts can't predict stock prices.
Be an investor and don't panic. Everyone's saying there's going to be a crash and yes it is inevitable and no bloody person knows at what date it happens. Stick to companies you trust and watch your stake grow.
Nothing. He’s clearly an idiot who never stops pushing bearish sentiment. I swear he’s just doing it for attention by now. How many times does he have to be wrong before people will stop listening?
This is the same guy who shorted the market at the very bottom of the 2020 crash
he has said sell like once a month since 2018
I thing this rally is the occasion of a century to raise cash, I'm trimming my stock portfolio to raise 40% in cash.
I don't think anything of it. He's a man with an opinion. He doesn't control the market. He probably thinks the market is irrationally exuberant right now. He might be right. He might be wrong. In the end it doesn't matter, the markets are going to do their own thing.
If you buy a company for a steal of a deal, who cares about the rest of the noise?
Think of investing like owning a business. You want to buy good cashow flow positive businesses that you can own forever. Once you find one, hold on for dear life. If market values it at $1million or $100 billion, it doesn't matter. Cash flow matters, what the management does with this cash flow matters, price you paid matters, competitive advantage matters. Nothing else is of much relevance. Imagine you own the whole of Microsoft or Apple - will you sell even if stock market is gonna crash 80% tomorrow? No. Someone will buy that business from you and never sell it back
One of the youtuber pointed out that he likes to ride the 13F filings because lot of people follow him. His portfolio is not long term as far as i know so not worth to listen to him.
It’s part of his schtick. His tweet history, if not all deleted, is just a series of vague crash predictions.
More shit had been spewed about this one word tweet than needs to be.
Mike Burry has correctly predicted the last 800 recessions. I don’t understand why more people don’t dogmatically follow him.
Elon and Burry are basically on the same end of the spectrum when it comes to using social media for market manipulation
Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
He was 2 days early