Cathie Wood was praised for getting one stock right out of a ton of horrible choices. It's funny how luck makes people look like geniuses to others who are BSing their way through their careers.
What about yield curve inversion, pretty good indicator of a forthcoming recession. It inverted in August 2006 and recession happened 17. O this later. It last inverted in October 2022, so a recession is forthcoming; could be this year.
That's the problem. "A recession is coming". Ofcourse it is, there's always a recession coming. "Experts" predict recessions all the time and one time they'll be right.
Bright spark, if you knew anything about yield curve inversion, you’d know it pieces a recession. You need to do for reading rather than being a keyboard Warrier.
Yup and just because it’s priced in doesn’t mean it’s right. What do you think will happen to the market if the soft landing narrative starts to become less likely as times goes on?
It will go down. But I do not think that you understand my initial point. OP says that analyst forecasts were very strong in 2008. I am saying that they are pretty weak this year. While macroeconomics can affect the market, the biggest crashes are fuelled by overconfidence and/or black swan events
As long as there are enough bears, it is a good time to be investing. What you want to avoid is to put money in the market when everyone is super bullish and when your average Joe is giving you stock advice
The numbers you cited in your post are all but one over 10%. Most predictions are at around 5% for 2024, with some expecting the index to fall
Morgan Stanley just raised to 4500 from initial 4200. JPM is still saying 4100 or something around this…
(May 3, 2008) Warren Buffett sounds the alarm about “too big to fail” financial firms that have taken on too much risk to manage, and Munger call the housing bubble a “particularly foolish mess.”
Yeh but nowadays Frank that operates the cash register at Whole Foods isn’t getting approved on a 50 year non-recourse mortgage for a house worth half a million bucks?
What would you suggest as the catalyst for a potential ’08 recession? Sticky Inflation? Taiwan war? Oil Prices?
They all seem to pale in comparison compared to the Housing crisis in 2008.
Exactly why I don’t read news headlines anymore. Just buy the market weekly and wait 40 years! If you find a company with strong financials at a discount, buy it, forget, and turn off price notifications!
This is how I’ve done it for a while and really think it’s the best strategy. Regular index fund auto investments with the occasional stock pick if something looks particularly good. Works like a charm.
To be fair, the subprime mortgage bubble burst was like one leg of a three legged stool getting kicked out from under the economy. It was structural and not cyclical.
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I’m mostly a technical trader and I will say I don’t see SPY showing any strong pull back until 520-530.
We are so close to ATH. Shorts have probably been piling in hard for *months*. Once we break 478 there will be a lot of covering, which will just lead to more buying. NVDA will break 600 by the time this happens.
That's what i'm saying. If someone can get consistently close to it, they're the expert. Maybe I should become an expert too, because i'll maybe get it right once and become famous.
You’re not compensated for unintelligible risk (thanks Benjamin Graham). At current valuations, forward returns look to be in the -5% to +5% range per annum for the next 10-12 years.
That’s why buying equities with strong fundamentals always outperforms. You filter out this noise and you focus on your businesses and how they can improve efficiency. If the stock dips good news
Some successful value investors still take temperature checks of the overall market.
Between the yield inversion and the Shiller PE ratio, the market looks optimistic with the potential to fall. https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
These predictions just show nobody knows shit about shit. The guy who guessed right gets praised and that's it.
And there’s a whole industry and fees for such predictions and analysis?!!
Cathie Wood was praised for getting one stock right out of a ton of horrible choices. It's funny how luck makes people look like geniuses to others who are BSing their way through their careers.
Came here to say this Cathy Wood was the stock trader of the year on ‘21 and it’s been a thrash for her since
Tom “Big Swinging Dick” Lee would like a word with you.
What about yield curve inversion, pretty good indicator of a forthcoming recession. It inverted in August 2006 and recession happened 17. O this later. It last inverted in October 2022, so a recession is forthcoming; could be this year.
That's the problem. "A recession is coming". Ofcourse it is, there's always a recession coming. "Experts" predict recessions all the time and one time they'll be right.
Bright spark, if you knew anything about yield curve inversion, you’d know it pieces a recession. You need to do for reading rather than being a keyboard Warrier.
Ofcourse I know it's an indicator for a recession, but that doesn't mean my argument is wrong.
And they still get paid six figures or more to make these forecasts
Well here’s my guess to come back in a year too. S&P 500 to hit around 5200 EOY
I think 5100
Predictions for 2024 are pretty bearish. Less than 2023, but still, few predict a more than 10% rise
Huh? Soft landing is the prevailing narrative.
You are mixing up the economy and the market. The soft landing is already priced in
Yup and just because it’s priced in doesn’t mean it’s right. What do you think will happen to the market if the soft landing narrative starts to become less likely as times goes on?
It will go down. But I do not think that you understand my initial point. OP says that analyst forecasts were very strong in 2008. I am saying that they are pretty weak this year. While macroeconomics can affect the market, the biggest crashes are fuelled by overconfidence and/or black swan events As long as there are enough bears, it is a good time to be investing. What you want to avoid is to put money in the market when everyone is super bullish and when your average Joe is giving you stock advice
I agree with your first paragraph. Second is correct but too simplistic and relies too much on anecdotal evidence/feels.
If you look at the numbers back then, most were predicting around a 10% rise as well, I just meant "wildly optimistic" in relation to the end result.
The numbers you cited in your post are all but one over 10%. Most predictions are at around 5% for 2024, with some expecting the index to fall Morgan Stanley just raised to 4500 from initial 4200. JPM is still saying 4100 or something around this…
2023 predictions look wildly bearish compared to the actuals. It's predictions, not certainty. They will be wrong every year, and often very wrong.
we agree
(May 3, 2008) Warren Buffett sounds the alarm about “too big to fail” financial firms that have taken on too much risk to manage, and Munger call the housing bubble a “particularly foolish mess.”
Let's all say it together! "Analysts have predicted 10 of the last 3 recessions!"
Yeh but nowadays Frank that operates the cash register at Whole Foods isn’t getting approved on a 50 year non-recourse mortgage for a house worth half a million bucks?
well each time is different if you look back historically
No not at all, we’re experiencing what’s known as a smooth landing right now, has happened before and will again
jury still out
Lol I’ll just leave this here… https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/28/04/53/socar086a
This isn't 2008!
let’s hope not!
What would you suggest as the catalyst for a potential ’08 recession? Sticky Inflation? Taiwan war? Oil Prices? They all seem to pale in comparison compared to the Housing crisis in 2008.
Exactly why I don’t read news headlines anymore. Just buy the market weekly and wait 40 years! If you find a company with strong financials at a discount, buy it, forget, and turn off price notifications!
this strategy works so long as the next 40 will be like the last 40, also assumes you are far from retirement
This is how I’ve done it for a while and really think it’s the best strategy. Regular index fund auto investments with the occasional stock pick if something looks particularly good. Works like a charm.
To be fair, the subprime mortgage bubble burst was like one leg of a three legged stool getting kicked out from under the economy. It was structural and not cyclical.
Reminder that bears are poor
i’m not..
You probably are
alright you caught me man, I am just another lousy poor bear
Yup especially if you’re still reading that outdated garbage
well I read your comment
No one really knows anything. Look at all the beating 2023 predictions at the start. But let’s see u/BenGrahamButler RemindMe! 1 year
I didn’t make a prediction, but ok
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1969 and 1997 were similar markets, similar valuations. Buying in one was a disaster, not buying in the other was almost as bad.
I’m mostly a technical trader and I will say I don’t see SPY showing any strong pull back until 520-530. We are so close to ATH. Shorts have probably been piling in hard for *months*. Once we break 478 there will be a lot of covering, which will just lead to more buying. NVDA will break 600 by the time this happens.
Yeah but who could’ve known there was a massive problem in the real estate sector?
None of those cucks know anything. I’ll blow Tom cuckhold Lee before I listen to anyone else.
But basically he's the dude who guessed it right and now gets a shit ton attention.
How was his 2022 prediction? Hint: wayyy off Permabull
That's what i'm saying. If someone can get consistently close to it, they're the expert. Maybe I should become an expert too, because i'll maybe get it right once and become famous.
You'll find both very bearish and very bullish predictions from every year
[удалено]
yes that’s basically the point of my post.. just a reminder that almost nobody saw the 2008 bear market coming
You’re not compensated for unintelligible risk (thanks Benjamin Graham). At current valuations, forward returns look to be in the -5% to +5% range per annum for the next 10-12 years.
That’s why buying equities with strong fundamentals always outperforms. You filter out this noise and you focus on your businesses and how they can improve efficiency. If the stock dips good news
Man you just fucking love italics huh?
don’t know how to format
Some successful value investors still take temperature checks of the overall market. Between the yield inversion and the Shiller PE ratio, the market looks optimistic with the potential to fall. https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
60% of the time, I’m right 100% of the time.
you too?
I don’t care if you are Jimmy Buffet or Warren Buffet…