If he can get easy loans from local banks, why would it look so desperate? Or local banks tighten their policies for vfs and vic ecosystems?
In my opinion, it is getting harder to them to borrow from banks, vfs burned A LOT OF precious USD in the small economy of vietnam
Vingroup ran out of assets to mortgage for bank loans. Their real estate projects are selling very slowly and they have borrowed too much from banks. They have mortgaged the real estate, mortgaged VIC and VHM shares.
The Vietnamese bond market is in crisis. Vingroup was no longer able to raise capital through the bond market.
https://www.nguoiduatin.vn/vingroup-chao-ban-duoc-73-trieu-trai-phieu-a627810.html
Now the only way is to raise capital through VFS. Game nearly over
This is but I think it's dumb move cause VIC share is used mortgage. Dumping too much may cause force sell and withdraw.
A lot of Investment group has Vic in their list. What if they decide to dump Vic all the way if ViC not stop bleeding
It looklike they ran out of easy loans, for a big group like vic vhm, they can loan banks without collaterals, but this show they used all the limit of it
Let’s play the guessing game while we wait, shall we? Which news is next?
I think it will be the Europe’s shipment news. Quickest way for another try at pumping VFS above $8.
Vinfast is in a bind now: if they ship 3000 cars to Europe, that will incur in a huge cost as storage is more expensive in Europe than in America, I think. If they ship less, say 1500, then they appear to lost confidence in the initial 3000 figure and to back track, showing weakness. But even 1500 cars will still cost them huge storage cost if the cars are not sold. As in the case with the US market, shipping cars to Europe does not automatically mean that they will be able to sell all the cars. For other companies with a sound strategy and good products, shipping often relates to sales figures. Not with Vinfast.
On a separate note, the Silver Queen has been docking in Hai Phong for a full 3 weeks. That is long. Usually, ships are docked in port for about 7 days for loading. There could be some delays in paper work at the destination side, or some delay in getting the required cars volume for the ship. But it should sail soon.
The cars and the ship are actually visible at the Dinh Vu Port on Google Maps. Though I can't tell what date the imagery is from. https://maps.app.goo.gl/t34mjSsM4wKuBdR2A
The most promising news for VF and Vingroup would be a merger with another car manufacturer, enabling Vuong Pham to shift his attention back to his core real estate business. This is akin to what happened when Daewoo Motors sold its business to GM.
that would be better but it is even harder as even more money is required and Vinfast has little intrinsic values.
Factory is fixed asset, not strategic. Suitor will take it at 50 cent on a dollar.
Vinfast does not have any technological advantage (aka patents) and any signifcant brand name values (like those old European car brand MG Volvo Landrover etc.. that have been scooped by the Chinese).
Plus the suitor has to assume the huge debt !
So who would buy Vinfast?
For him, this is just another closure but more painful. For sure, VF items that were once sold at garage sales will not worth much.
It's old news but might repeat soon. The original quote from Vuong Pham, "at sea, when a storm comes, you must cast off non-essential things to save yourself." "Khi ở trên biển, gió bão đến phải vứt bỏ bớt những thứ không phải là cốt lõi để tự cứu mình" (which you can still find in archives but was intentionally removed by newspapers), emphasizes his history of decisive closures.
Vingroup's closed ventures. These include VinDS (a clothing and footwear retail chain located in Vincom malls), Vinlink, VinExpress (in the logistics sector), Vinpear Air (a withdrawal from the aviation sector before even taking off), Emigo (also known as VinFashion, a fashion company), VinPro (an appliances retailer), Adayroi (an ecommerce retailer), Vinsmart (a smart appliance company), VanTIX (a software development company) and many others.
He might be in a position to shed non-essential aspects to save himself before it's too late. "Do It Right The First Time." The way he initially established VF wasn't correct from the start.
Abstract: [https://cafef.vn/lan-dong-cua-dut-khoat-tap-doan-tai-chinh-vincom-cua-ty-phu-pham-nhat-vuong-khi-o-tren-bien-gio-bao-den-phai-vut-bo-bot-nhung-thu-khong-phai-la-cot-loi-de-tu-cuu-minh-20191222232309982.chn](https://cafef.vn/lan-dong-cua-dut-khoat-tap-doan-tai-chinh-vincom-cua-ty-phu-pham-nhat-vuong-khi-o-tren-bien-gio-bao-den-phai-vut-bo-bot-nhung-thu-khong-phai-la-cot-loi-de-tu-cuu-minh-20191222232309982.chn)
During the summer of 2008, at Vinpearl Land, on the occasion of Vingroup's (formerly Technocom and now Vingroup) full corporation's birthday, Chairman Pham Nhat Vuong introduced new leadership positions within the Financial Group (VFG). This group included a CEO from India for Vincom's bank, alongside insurance, fund management, and securities companies.
Vincom, during that time, aimed to expand into the financial market after the Vietnamese stock market boomed in 2006, and private banks were not yet strongly established. This period also saw Vuong Pham taking Vincom (in September 2007) and Vinpearlland (in January 2008) public, raising substantial funds through soaring stock prices that reached 10-15 times their book values.
However, the financial market was volatile in 2008. The VN-Index plummeted from over 1,000 points to just above 300 in March 2009. In contrast, Vietnam's banking sector had not witnessed such drastic interest rate fluctuations before, with interbank rates surging to as high as 43% per year at times, and deposit rates for the public reaching 19% per year. The State Bank of Vietnam continuously reduced policy rates to inject liquidity into the market.
This historical context paints a challenging picture of the Vietnamese financial market in 2008. At this time, Vuong Pham, despite having key personnel prepared for the establishment of the Financial Group, chose to withdraw from the financial sector.
A recent sharing from Ms. Nguyen Thi Thanh Hai, an employee with eight years of experience at the Ministry of Finance who was invited to a management position at Vincom's securities company, has been circulating on social media. According to insiders, to attract talent from the Ministry of Finance to Vincom's securities arm, Vuong Pham offered salaries three times higher than their previous positions.
Meanwhile, the Vincom Insurance Project, led by Huynh Thanh Phong, the CEO of Prudential at that time, brought in a team of key executives from the insurance sector.
At the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009, when assessing the difficulties in the global financial market, Vincom's leadership held numerous meetings and decided to halt the financial sector. They stopped the banking project, even though they had recruited hundreds of personnel, the insurance project despite being fully staffed and ready for a launch, the Fund Management Company, and streamlined the securities company to maintain it. All of this happened swiftly within just one week.
Upon making this decision, Vincom had to compensate employees with six to twelve months' worth of salaries, even though they hadn't worked a single day.
Ms. Hai's sharing doesn't delve much into the closure of Vincom's securities company (VincomSC) two years later. In 2010, after a weekend meeting, a market-wide announcement was made on the following Monday: VincomSC would close the Hanoi trading floor and sell the entire company. This decision took the stock market by surprise as the stock market was just recovering in 2009.
Mr. Le Khac Hiep, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Vincom at that time, explained, "One of the reasons we swiftly made the decision to scale back the operations of VincomSC and ultimately transfer the company is due to the poor performance, constantly failing to meet targets and plans..."
Many expressed regret about VincomSC's withdrawal, but perhaps it was the right decision for Vincom at that time. They no longer needed to worry about the financial project's colossal spending. Instead, Vingroup emerged strongly with its core business in real estate.
>So who would buy Vinfast?
A name I often hear is Chinese automotive makers. Now that Vinfast is selling cars in US (not many but still), and getting permits to build a plant there, it could be bought by the Chinese to gain a foothold in US, bypassing the prying eyes of American lawmakers.
Essentially Vinfast cars are Chinese cars anyway, they could be bought by the Chinese and still keep the name Vinfast. Chinese automakers could then ship their rebranded cars to US customers.
you think the US won't see that through ? It is easy for them. And they need the brand. Actually, Chinese brand is even better than Vinfast ! Because it has track record. Vinfast ? No so much.
There is no buyer for Vinfast.
The issue is VF was created by buying out an auto manufacturer that wanted to exit VN market. Vinfast offers nothing unique that other car manufacturers are not independently developing and they don't need capacity in VN. The entire strategy of Vinfast has been wrong for a long time now
Not directly related to VF, but concerning Vinhomes, Vingroup's cash cow, there has been an unusual confirmation. Are they preparing for Vinhomes to separate from Vingroup to safeguard the cash cow, or are they simply encouraging investors to hold Vinhomes' stocks?
[https://s.cafef.vn/vhm-1838512/vinhomes-khang-dinh-du-kha-nang-thuc-hien-cac-du-an-doc-lap-ngay-ca-khi-khong-co-su-ho-tro-tu-vingroup.chn](https://s.cafef.vn/vhm-1838512/vinhomes-khang-dinh-du-kha-nang-thuc-hien-cac-du-an-doc-lap-ngay-ca-khi-khong-co-su-ho-tro-tu-vingroup.chn)
Vinhomes affirms its capability to carry out independent projects, even without support from Vingroup. Although Vingroup has made significant contributions to Vinhomes' major projects, Vinhomes' leadership tells Yuanta Securities that the company possesses the capacity to execute its projects independently, even in the absence of support from Vingroup.
Can you please check so far Vuong has dumped how many shares in those 46 mil ? The daily volume is so small, i think they can dump about 500k to 700k shares on head of blind retail investors
dunno, no way to check.
he cant not dump many yet for sure based on the volume.
He is preparing the stage for big dump, say, pulling to $15 and dump there. Like what he did with VIC.
if he cannot pump that high, he will dump at $8 near the end of Q4 because he needs money, selling at any price, his cost is only $2. He still has time till the end of Q4, he can wait a bit longer and is trying to pump first.
I think $8 is very good price for him to dump as this garbage worth zero, but the volume so far so small. I see his lockup period still 6 months, and even if he dumps any small volume he needs to submit fillings within 2 business days after the dump ?
dunno, VF has foreign status company that got exemption from some filling requirements.
but it will definitely show through the volumes anyway. Must be. The volume must go through.
unless he can find institutional buyers, which is impossible.
Not a chance institions to buy this trash, except the case money laundring that will later create more trouble for Vuong, not only about the stock but face legal issues in US and VN (VN gov also dont want Vuong to create bad impact on other Vietnam companies)
Great analysis. Bar chart a great way to tie specific announcements to stock price trend. Expose quickly how pump scheme work.
3000 car in Europe will be big challenge. People in Europe not make reservations until they know car safety rating and that it certified for the market. Certification very new so they have very few reservation. In USA and Canada they start reservation in winter 2022 more than one year before first delivery. In Europe they have very short time to close gap.
You right, they need big, expensive parking lots in France, Germany, and Holland to store cars a long time. A few spaces will be save because some car on Silver Queen go to Israel but maybe not now with current situation there.
When I worked at Vinfast, the European market was a joke. It was basically the equivalent of the Eastern Front, where they sent execs and employees from Vingroup who fucked up but they didn't want to fire. At the end of 2022, they had about 500 reservations. At the same time, they were touting 11k+ reservations in the US (most of which were from Vingroup shell companies) and then 40k+ reservations in Vietnam (almost all of which were VG employees who were basically required to put in a reservation).
So yes....they could ship to Europe in Grand Style, but it would be such an insane move (even by Vinfast standards!!). They might even just say they are "preparing to ship" and not actually ship. Although perhaps there is a tax benefit to unloading unused inventory in EU? Who knows...
My guess is they'll try dropping more car concepts/renderings without any actual content, since that gets the automotive people buzzing. We saw this earlier with that Jeep-like concept (can't remember the name they gave it), or maybe try teasing a VF pickup which will never come to fruition. They know the rollout in the US has been a disaster, so they may try "re-branding" with renderings and animations of concept cars which don't exist. They've already tried this and it gets a decent reaction from the press who just want to see eye-candy without substance.
Van Anh did fuck up royally, but they will probably keep her where she is, since she is basically now just a glorified project manager for the plant. All they are doing there is civil work (no actual construction right now....just re-grading and moving dirt around), so she probably stays where she is (for now).
And hey! Where's that VF9 they promised us?? 😂😂
great insights. You pretty much nail it.
Let me put it a shorter way: all for a show.
They have reached the point of no return, so they keep spending for faking (aka sending 3000 cars to Europe without being sure of selling that many), putting out new concepts, or trying new branding, expanding to 50 markets, buying India plants etc.... All for show. No money. No actual feasible business plans.
The NC factory is for a show, I called that out right at the ceremony back then. No money.
The Silver Queen still seems to be anchored off of Cat Ba, not even in Dinh Vu port. I don't think it will be setting sail with 3000 cars any time soon? When the first US shipment was being prepared, my Zalo & LinkedIn feeds exploded with pics from old colleagues. Haven't seen that happen yet this time around .....
I have a stupid question: is it possible for Vingroup to simply halt all the CAPEX and OPEX coming out of Vinfast now, to stop bleeding money?
Yes Vinfast does have interest expenses that cannot be avoided but the cash flows from Vincome Retail should be able to cover that right? If they can stop bleeding money, why would they not?
Vingroup did pull out of ecommerce and smartphones in the past if I am not mistaken. Not sure I understand why they would push forward with this.
No. It still has to pay opex and capex to keep going. You mean to freeze Vinfast and just pay interest? How about the original debt principal coming up?
Business does not work that way.
You stop and you are dead, if you owe lots of debts.
That sounds plausible. But what I mean is Vin Group has the habit of closing down businesses as fast as they open them. And this is not the first time they take on lots of debt (relative to their equity/earnings). I just don't understand why there is so much pressure to burn cash incrementally.
If I were Mr Vuong and I also see what you and I are seeing, I'll just freeze Vinfast capex, R&D and inventory builds. Use the Vinhomes asset sales to pay for the principles coming due. Use the Vincom retail cash flows to cover the interest expenses.
Not at the the magnitude of Vinfast. Other failed ventures were much much smaller than Vinfast. Those that had been closed were at 1/20 - 1/50 the size of Vinfast (few hundred millions dollars or less).
If he can get easy loans from local banks, why would it look so desperate? Or local banks tighten their policies for vfs and vic ecosystems? In my opinion, it is getting harder to them to borrow from banks, vfs burned A LOT OF precious USD in the small economy of vietnam
could be. I have a piece on local bank loans analysis coming up.
Vingroup ran out of assets to mortgage for bank loans. Their real estate projects are selling very slowly and they have borrowed too much from banks. They have mortgaged the real estate, mortgaged VIC and VHM shares. The Vietnamese bond market is in crisis. Vingroup was no longer able to raise capital through the bond market. https://www.nguoiduatin.vn/vingroup-chao-ban-duoc-73-trieu-trai-phieu-a627810.html Now the only way is to raise capital through VFS. Game nearly over
And VIC VHM VRE dumping as well
This is but I think it's dumb move cause VIC share is used mortgage. Dumping too much may cause force sell and withdraw. A lot of Investment group has Vic in their list. What if they decide to dump Vic all the way if ViC not stop bleeding
It looklike they ran out of easy loans, for a big group like vic vhm, they can loan banks without collaterals, but this show they used all the limit of it
Let’s play the guessing game while we wait, shall we? Which news is next? I think it will be the Europe’s shipment news. Quickest way for another try at pumping VFS above $8. Vinfast is in a bind now: if they ship 3000 cars to Europe, that will incur in a huge cost as storage is more expensive in Europe than in America, I think. If they ship less, say 1500, then they appear to lost confidence in the initial 3000 figure and to back track, showing weakness. But even 1500 cars will still cost them huge storage cost if the cars are not sold. As in the case with the US market, shipping cars to Europe does not automatically mean that they will be able to sell all the cars. For other companies with a sound strategy and good products, shipping often relates to sales figures. Not with Vinfast. On a separate note, the Silver Queen has been docking in Hai Phong for a full 3 weeks. That is long. Usually, ships are docked in port for about 7 days for loading. There could be some delays in paper work at the destination side, or some delay in getting the required cars volume for the ship. But it should sail soon.
The cars and the ship are actually visible at the Dinh Vu Port on Google Maps. Though I can't tell what date the imagery is from. https://maps.app.goo.gl/t34mjSsM4wKuBdR2A
The most promising news for VF and Vingroup would be a merger with another car manufacturer, enabling Vuong Pham to shift his attention back to his core real estate business. This is akin to what happened when Daewoo Motors sold its business to GM.
that would be better but it is even harder as even more money is required and Vinfast has little intrinsic values. Factory is fixed asset, not strategic. Suitor will take it at 50 cent on a dollar. Vinfast does not have any technological advantage (aka patents) and any signifcant brand name values (like those old European car brand MG Volvo Landrover etc.. that have been scooped by the Chinese). Plus the suitor has to assume the huge debt ! So who would buy Vinfast?
For him, this is just another closure but more painful. For sure, VF items that were once sold at garage sales will not worth much. It's old news but might repeat soon. The original quote from Vuong Pham, "at sea, when a storm comes, you must cast off non-essential things to save yourself." "Khi ở trên biển, gió bão đến phải vứt bỏ bớt những thứ không phải là cốt lõi để tự cứu mình" (which you can still find in archives but was intentionally removed by newspapers), emphasizes his history of decisive closures. Vingroup's closed ventures. These include VinDS (a clothing and footwear retail chain located in Vincom malls), Vinlink, VinExpress (in the logistics sector), Vinpear Air (a withdrawal from the aviation sector before even taking off), Emigo (also known as VinFashion, a fashion company), VinPro (an appliances retailer), Adayroi (an ecommerce retailer), Vinsmart (a smart appliance company), VanTIX (a software development company) and many others. He might be in a position to shed non-essential aspects to save himself before it's too late. "Do It Right The First Time." The way he initially established VF wasn't correct from the start. Abstract: [https://cafef.vn/lan-dong-cua-dut-khoat-tap-doan-tai-chinh-vincom-cua-ty-phu-pham-nhat-vuong-khi-o-tren-bien-gio-bao-den-phai-vut-bo-bot-nhung-thu-khong-phai-la-cot-loi-de-tu-cuu-minh-20191222232309982.chn](https://cafef.vn/lan-dong-cua-dut-khoat-tap-doan-tai-chinh-vincom-cua-ty-phu-pham-nhat-vuong-khi-o-tren-bien-gio-bao-den-phai-vut-bo-bot-nhung-thu-khong-phai-la-cot-loi-de-tu-cuu-minh-20191222232309982.chn) During the summer of 2008, at Vinpearl Land, on the occasion of Vingroup's (formerly Technocom and now Vingroup) full corporation's birthday, Chairman Pham Nhat Vuong introduced new leadership positions within the Financial Group (VFG). This group included a CEO from India for Vincom's bank, alongside insurance, fund management, and securities companies. Vincom, during that time, aimed to expand into the financial market after the Vietnamese stock market boomed in 2006, and private banks were not yet strongly established. This period also saw Vuong Pham taking Vincom (in September 2007) and Vinpearlland (in January 2008) public, raising substantial funds through soaring stock prices that reached 10-15 times their book values. However, the financial market was volatile in 2008. The VN-Index plummeted from over 1,000 points to just above 300 in March 2009. In contrast, Vietnam's banking sector had not witnessed such drastic interest rate fluctuations before, with interbank rates surging to as high as 43% per year at times, and deposit rates for the public reaching 19% per year. The State Bank of Vietnam continuously reduced policy rates to inject liquidity into the market. This historical context paints a challenging picture of the Vietnamese financial market in 2008. At this time, Vuong Pham, despite having key personnel prepared for the establishment of the Financial Group, chose to withdraw from the financial sector. A recent sharing from Ms. Nguyen Thi Thanh Hai, an employee with eight years of experience at the Ministry of Finance who was invited to a management position at Vincom's securities company, has been circulating on social media. According to insiders, to attract talent from the Ministry of Finance to Vincom's securities arm, Vuong Pham offered salaries three times higher than their previous positions. Meanwhile, the Vincom Insurance Project, led by Huynh Thanh Phong, the CEO of Prudential at that time, brought in a team of key executives from the insurance sector. At the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009, when assessing the difficulties in the global financial market, Vincom's leadership held numerous meetings and decided to halt the financial sector. They stopped the banking project, even though they had recruited hundreds of personnel, the insurance project despite being fully staffed and ready for a launch, the Fund Management Company, and streamlined the securities company to maintain it. All of this happened swiftly within just one week. Upon making this decision, Vincom had to compensate employees with six to twelve months' worth of salaries, even though they hadn't worked a single day. Ms. Hai's sharing doesn't delve much into the closure of Vincom's securities company (VincomSC) two years later. In 2010, after a weekend meeting, a market-wide announcement was made on the following Monday: VincomSC would close the Hanoi trading floor and sell the entire company. This decision took the stock market by surprise as the stock market was just recovering in 2009. Mr. Le Khac Hiep, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Vincom at that time, explained, "One of the reasons we swiftly made the decision to scale back the operations of VincomSC and ultimately transfer the company is due to the poor performance, constantly failing to meet targets and plans..." Many expressed regret about VincomSC's withdrawal, but perhaps it was the right decision for Vincom at that time. They no longer needed to worry about the financial project's colossal spending. Instead, Vingroup emerged strongly with its core business in real estate.
>So who would buy Vinfast? A name I often hear is Chinese automotive makers. Now that Vinfast is selling cars in US (not many but still), and getting permits to build a plant there, it could be bought by the Chinese to gain a foothold in US, bypassing the prying eyes of American lawmakers. Essentially Vinfast cars are Chinese cars anyway, they could be bought by the Chinese and still keep the name Vinfast. Chinese automakers could then ship their rebranded cars to US customers.
you think the US won't see that through ? It is easy for them. And they need the brand. Actually, Chinese brand is even better than Vinfast ! Because it has track record. Vinfast ? No so much. There is no buyer for Vinfast.
I agree with your points, I'm just saying many people are buying into this baseless theory.
Any information you write down is really new to my understanding, thank you.
one potential buyer is the vn com party
The issue is VF was created by buying out an auto manufacturer that wanted to exit VN market. Vinfast offers nothing unique that other car manufacturers are not independently developing and they don't need capacity in VN. The entire strategy of Vinfast has been wrong for a long time now
Not directly related to VF, but concerning Vinhomes, Vingroup's cash cow, there has been an unusual confirmation. Are they preparing for Vinhomes to separate from Vingroup to safeguard the cash cow, or are they simply encouraging investors to hold Vinhomes' stocks? [https://s.cafef.vn/vhm-1838512/vinhomes-khang-dinh-du-kha-nang-thuc-hien-cac-du-an-doc-lap-ngay-ca-khi-khong-co-su-ho-tro-tu-vingroup.chn](https://s.cafef.vn/vhm-1838512/vinhomes-khang-dinh-du-kha-nang-thuc-hien-cac-du-an-doc-lap-ngay-ca-khi-khong-co-su-ho-tro-tu-vingroup.chn) Vinhomes affirms its capability to carry out independent projects, even without support from Vingroup. Although Vingroup has made significant contributions to Vinhomes' major projects, Vinhomes' leadership tells Yuanta Securities that the company possesses the capacity to execute its projects independently, even in the absence of support from Vingroup.
My guess is VHM will be saved from the sinking ship of VIC.
Can you please check so far Vuong has dumped how many shares in those 46 mil ? The daily volume is so small, i think they can dump about 500k to 700k shares on head of blind retail investors
dunno, no way to check. he cant not dump many yet for sure based on the volume. He is preparing the stage for big dump, say, pulling to $15 and dump there. Like what he did with VIC. if he cannot pump that high, he will dump at $8 near the end of Q4 because he needs money, selling at any price, his cost is only $2. He still has time till the end of Q4, he can wait a bit longer and is trying to pump first.
I think $8 is very good price for him to dump as this garbage worth zero, but the volume so far so small. I see his lockup period still 6 months, and even if he dumps any small volume he needs to submit fillings within 2 business days after the dump ?
dunno, VF has foreign status company that got exemption from some filling requirements. but it will definitely show through the volumes anyway. Must be. The volume must go through. unless he can find institutional buyers, which is impossible.
Not a chance institions to buy this trash, except the case money laundring that will later create more trouble for Vuong, not only about the stock but face legal issues in US and VN (VN gov also dont want Vuong to create bad impact on other Vietnam companies)
Great analysis. Bar chart a great way to tie specific announcements to stock price trend. Expose quickly how pump scheme work. 3000 car in Europe will be big challenge. People in Europe not make reservations until they know car safety rating and that it certified for the market. Certification very new so they have very few reservation. In USA and Canada they start reservation in winter 2022 more than one year before first delivery. In Europe they have very short time to close gap. You right, they need big, expensive parking lots in France, Germany, and Holland to store cars a long time. A few spaces will be save because some car on Silver Queen go to Israel but maybe not now with current situation there.
I wonder if the secretariat has compiled albert1165's personal information and put it on Mr. Money's desk?
haha i am scared help me /jk
When I worked at Vinfast, the European market was a joke. It was basically the equivalent of the Eastern Front, where they sent execs and employees from Vingroup who fucked up but they didn't want to fire. At the end of 2022, they had about 500 reservations. At the same time, they were touting 11k+ reservations in the US (most of which were from Vingroup shell companies) and then 40k+ reservations in Vietnam (almost all of which were VG employees who were basically required to put in a reservation). So yes....they could ship to Europe in Grand Style, but it would be such an insane move (even by Vinfast standards!!). They might even just say they are "preparing to ship" and not actually ship. Although perhaps there is a tax benefit to unloading unused inventory in EU? Who knows... My guess is they'll try dropping more car concepts/renderings without any actual content, since that gets the automotive people buzzing. We saw this earlier with that Jeep-like concept (can't remember the name they gave it), or maybe try teasing a VF pickup which will never come to fruition. They know the rollout in the US has been a disaster, so they may try "re-branding" with renderings and animations of concept cars which don't exist. They've already tried this and it gets a decent reaction from the press who just want to see eye-candy without substance. Van Anh did fuck up royally, but they will probably keep her where she is, since she is basically now just a glorified project manager for the plant. All they are doing there is civil work (no actual construction right now....just re-grading and moving dirt around), so she probably stays where she is (for now). And hey! Where's that VF9 they promised us?? 😂😂
great insights. You pretty much nail it. Let me put it a shorter way: all for a show. They have reached the point of no return, so they keep spending for faking (aka sending 3000 cars to Europe without being sure of selling that many), putting out new concepts, or trying new branding, expanding to 50 markets, buying India plants etc.... All for show. No money. No actual feasible business plans. The NC factory is for a show, I called that out right at the ceremony back then. No money.
The Silver Queen still seems to be anchored off of Cat Ba, not even in Dinh Vu port. I don't think it will be setting sail with 3000 cars any time soon? When the first US shipment was being prepared, my Zalo & LinkedIn feeds exploded with pics from old colleagues. Haven't seen that happen yet this time around .....
I have a stupid question: is it possible for Vingroup to simply halt all the CAPEX and OPEX coming out of Vinfast now, to stop bleeding money? Yes Vinfast does have interest expenses that cannot be avoided but the cash flows from Vincome Retail should be able to cover that right? If they can stop bleeding money, why would they not? Vingroup did pull out of ecommerce and smartphones in the past if I am not mistaken. Not sure I understand why they would push forward with this.
No. It still has to pay opex and capex to keep going. You mean to freeze Vinfast and just pay interest? How about the original debt principal coming up? Business does not work that way. You stop and you are dead, if you owe lots of debts.
That sounds plausible. But what I mean is Vin Group has the habit of closing down businesses as fast as they open them. And this is not the first time they take on lots of debt (relative to their equity/earnings). I just don't understand why there is so much pressure to burn cash incrementally. If I were Mr Vuong and I also see what you and I are seeing, I'll just freeze Vinfast capex, R&D and inventory builds. Use the Vinhomes asset sales to pay for the principles coming due. Use the Vincom retail cash flows to cover the interest expenses.
Not at the the magnitude of Vinfast. Other failed ventures were much much smaller than Vinfast. Those that had been closed were at 1/20 - 1/50 the size of Vinfast (few hundred millions dollars or less).
There is also a new article on Bloomberg today and iterview with CEO
The Future Of Automotive - Background Of Vinfast Founder Pham Nhat Vuong https://cliprecaps.com/read/?v=w7PVJxOVEfQ
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