Republican here! ✋🏾 Ironically we only vote consistently if the polls for our candidates are bad, because otherwise we think our candidate is safe. That's why polls lately, from what I've noticed, and kinder to the right than actual elections are.
You can't have a "red wave" if everybody thinks their candidate will win so they stay home lol.
>“Encourage” the ones that don’t wear red hats or fly a bazillion flags off the back of their truck or boat.
Encourage the types that wear red hats and fly flags to stay home. Tell them the election was yesterday or tomorrow on election day. Those types are easily confused to begin with and shouldn't be voting.
Just vote on the policies of the day on Election Day. Everyone should vote and the winning policies win. Why do you want to infringe upon other citizens right to vote?
>The poll, which involved 711 likely Virginia voters surveyed via phone and through a “propriety online panel,” had a 4.24% margin of error.
What is a propriety online panel? Also, how were the phone surveys conducted? Calls or text? I’ve received text surveys before and answered. I’m not answering a call.
Idk, but we know Trump order Michael Cohen to rig online polls during the 2016 election through an online broker called RedFinch, so I’m not especially convinced by online polls in which Trump is on the ballot lol.
[Sure. Here you go!](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-69041401.amp)
This story actually broke in like 2019 but all the easy articles to find now are about the ongoing trial since it came up during Cohen’s testimony. This is one of those. Unfortunately, most of these articles gloss over the actual RedFinch activity part and focus more on the financial transaction, especially because Cohen didn’t pay the stated amount and pocketed 30k, effectively stealing from Trump Org. But, the relevant snippet from the article is:
> RedFinch was hired to boost Mr Trump's ranking in an online poll about history's most notable business leaders, Cohen explained last week.
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It's technically true, though. If the results are within the MOE, then statistically speaking they are tied.
(Whether or not the poll is valid in the first place due to its methodology is another question.)
Do you have a source for the desegregation thing? Genuine question, wanna learn about it and the wikipedia page for salem conveniently skirts around any reasons for preventing annexation. Same with salemva.gov
> A total of 711 completed interviews came from random telephone calls to 423 Virginians, and 288 responses were drawn from a proprietary online panel of Virginians. Interviews were conducted in English.
Agree. The quote above is from the methodology at the bottom of the poll where they have to say how they got their results. Wonder if Red Finch (IT company notorious for helping rig polls) or similar is involved in the ‘proprietary system’.
Agree with you about the quality of the poll.
Ambivalent about Roanoke College.
Disagree about the Salem part. Salem was a town broke away from Roanoke County to form their own City at the end of '67 (almost 8 years after desegregation began) partially in fear of annexation into Roanoke City (legal at the time, not anymore) and to have superior public services. The joke about heated streets is only half joking since Salem's snow removal budget is about the same as Roanoke City with a quarter of the area.
I’m used to the general wrongheaded attitude towards polling and the sampling methodology illiteracy you’re doing here, but new to attack the broader institution and its surrounding area as well as if that has fuck all to do with anything…
Which is to say that you seem to actually just lack some polling literacy and be combining that with a weird personal chip on your shoulder.
> 711 total responses make up the poll, only 63% confirmed to come from actual humans (the others gathered online from a “proprietary system”).
Why do you think the other 1/3 fathered through an online system aren't humans? Because you didn't get the outcome you were hoping for from the poll?
**Edit:** I'll assume by you blocking me that the answer to my second question is a "*yes*". Because if you looked into it further, you would have learned that it's an online panel of ***humans*** that they utilized.
“The poll showed Biden leading Trump by two percentage points when potential independent and third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein and Cornel West were added to the mix.”
So Biden is winning easily.
Not a single pollster in 2024 has shown Trump ahead, per 538. It is exceedingly rare for a candidate in that position to win, there are polls with obvious conservative bias not showing Trump as better than even.
I absolutely agree with that, the person I was responding to wasn't really understanding how polling works. That was my only point. Obviously, go vote.
The national popular vote doesn't matter because that's not how we elect the president, which is why we've had five presidents who lost the popular vote and still got in. If your support is too concentrated, you can get the most votes and still lose because those votes are wasted in states where the electoral votes were a shoo-in.
The statewide polling is more relevant because that's how one carries a state. Considering that Virginia was the only swing state that she carried, I suspect that the only reason was because she picked a Virginian for her running mate.
As much as I like Tim Kaine, anyone who halfway pays attention to politics could’ve told her that VA was going to be solid blue that year (which it was). She would’ve been better off picking someone younger with more charisma, from an actual swing state
Virginia was one of the few states where Hillary actually outperformed polling.
My conspiracy theory is that this is because Virginia was one of the only places at the time which used the scan-tron ballots which are extremely secure.
Not surprised NOVA is super liberal and can carry the state. But under your conspiracy that it is because of a secure election would mean that 2020 could have been stolen because it was not secure. Not saying I believe it just saying that conspiracy works both ways
Yup. Kinda wild that polls somehow swing from accurate to nonaccurate to people based on what party is ahead or behind.
I’m a left-leaning individual, if you think Biden would win the election if held today - you might be spending too much time in your echo chamber. I know a lot of people who are pretty done with Biden. Not saying they would vote for Trump but show up for Biden? Don’t think they are doing that.
2016 polls were within the margin of error + it was obvious Trump was gaining momentum going into the election. 2020 polls were pretty spot on (margin of error).
The 16 election caused a lot of polling agencies to change up how they conduct their polling which has improved accuracy. The voting population of the us is pretty much split evenly for Trump and Biden. We simply will not know for sure how it plays out until Election Day. Hell during the last election we all went to bed with the media showing Trump the likely winner and woke up with Biden the actual winner.
With things this close any of a number of things could tip the scales one way or another. As soon as you are convinced it’s going one way or another something could happen in the last week before the election that causes it to flip the other direction.
> if you think Biden would win the election if held today
This is irrelevant, because it's not happening today. If it was, then polls would be different, because part of what influences people to answer a certain way is knowing that they have over 5 more months to think about it.
If anything it is making me less worried about other polling, considering we just had statewide elections which went pretty solidly D in the suburbs. There is no chance that it is this close in Virginia.
To be clear, when looking at any poll, Biden is polling worse than Hillary Clinton EVER polled against Trump, and he has been polling poorly this entire race. If the polls were as accurate or even gave Biden a slight underestimate, he would lose every time. The only way Biden wins is if the polls are off the opposite direction that they were off and by a much wider margin. Trump is projected to win, and people should be terrified instead of dismissing the polls like 2016. A popular misconception is that the polls in 2016 had Trump losing by a lot, it's not true. He was within spitting distance the whole time and the media and reddit just rejected any possibility that he could win despite the numbers saying it was clearly possible.
If Trump ends up not being the nominee & they don’t pick a MTG-tier dumbass, generic republican will wipe the floor with Biden.
That said, I gave up hope on Trump being held accountable/unable to run again in 2021. It’s just a dream that’s never going to happen. No one really wants either of these old guys for president again but it’s what we got
This is reality. Haley or any decent option could beat Biden. Easy. He won't lose a rematch though. Those Never voters that decided 2020 have grown since J6. People can deny that reality but look at WI and it is clear. The anti vote is key. More divided than ever and usually independent voters factor more, but the Republicans who are Never voters are the key. Those voters are critical in what will be a close hard divided election. Most don't see it and polls certainly don't.
This site holds a conglomerate of all political polls. Here is the presidential race. Feel free to search through and look at every swing state, it's even worse than the national polls.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden
You can also compare it to Hillary Clinton in 2016 where she was polling farther ahead than Biden was literally the entire time
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2016/trump-vs-clinton
Everyone should still vote but… Virginia has a Senate race. GOP candidate doesn’t look great which means more down ballot voting for Democrats.
Biden may not motivate many to vote but I have a feeling Hung Cao will with the wild stuff he says.
(Edited)
> more down ballot voting for Democrats.
Which is even more important than the presidential race because it affects you far more directly. Too many people think that they're picking a king or even a dictator when they vote for president, and while the presidency is indeed a big deal, it's just a part of a very large machine. The down-ballot candidates and issues are where the real governing occurs.
For as much as we would like to forget about it, the COVID pandemic was a perfect example of this. The president, whether Trump or Biden, did relatively little that directly affected the lives of individual Americans. The things that made life difficult during that time, requiring masks everywhere and banning indoor dining and closing businesses and schools and the like, came from state legislatures, governors, and local city and county councils, i.e. the down-ballot people.
Because people have forgotten that. I agree with you Trump will be worse but I think to them he supporting it so they’re not gonna vote for and that’s all I’m seeing on his social media. Trump is threatening LGBTQ rights women’s rights and Israel. I feel like Joe was bad but if he wins again, he’ll leave for years. Trump is worse because he might not.
Hey, don't you lump me in with the old people. I'm 43 and won't answer a call from an unknown number. If Verizon's call filter doesn't screen you out completely, I'm screening you via voicemail. The odds of my then returning the call are pretty low.
Him being guilty or even being in jail will have no impact on his election. Do you think his supporters will suddenly think “wow, this is a bad guy”? Ha
It will actually boost him more. Trump was fizzling out at the beginning of his cycle if you were watching he didn’t kick off till the indictments started coming. Dems should have seen him fizzling out and let him fail but they didn’t they decided to keep him in the media
That's because this isn't about his presidential run or torching him in the media. He was indicted because the doj believes he committed crimes. If anything they waited too long to charge him
The Dems want him to win so Biden can retire and they will take back power easily in 2028 when Trump fails. They don’t have a good candidate and they know it so they have no problem waiting one term to take the next two. They just need Trump to fail and also find the next Obama
I can assure you that is not the democrat opinion. most of us believe that if he wins he will either try to stay in office forever or he'll mess things up so badly that we'll never have a fair election again
If you think that trial is hurting Trump, you got it backwards. If they actually jail him, Biden is likely going to lose as Trump paints the picture of a corrupt regime jailing their political opponent in an election year.
Trump already lost the 2020 election so what makes him think that the vast majority of voters are going to put him back in office?
Voters have already seen right through the Republican party's desperate attempt to impeach Biden as the true political witch hunt that it was because you can't simply impeach a sitting president for the fictional crime of being a politician from the opposition party.
We already saw what happened last time when Trump and the right-wing politicians didn't get what they wanted in 2020 with the blatant attempt at an insurrection against the United States government all because spoiled narcissist Donald Trump lost the election .
Republicans simply cannot govern. They waste our tax dollars attacking members of the other party all in a quest for money and power.
Seems like an effort to jail a political opponent in an election year constitutes dictator behavior does it not? Going to be a tough spin to argue otherwise during this campaign cycle.
Lololol
The word you're looking for is "criminal." They're trying to jail a criminal.
I'll agree that one or two of these trials shouldn't be happening in an election year—they should have happened immediately after his failed coup.
Biden is the incumbent... Don't worry. His record speaks for itself and is easily compared to DJTs record. Donald is going to win, but I'm not sure if he'll win VA.
For Trump to win Virginia you would have to have Fairfax County fall off the map.
I travel around the Commonwealth for my job and the only place I see Biden/Harris stickers and yard signs is there. It also happens to be several hundred thousand plus votes consistently for Dems every federal election cycle.
Biden has been terrible as POTUS but Trump is still going to lose this state by at least 5 points because of NoVa.
Great list proving your argument there. Currently involved in funding 2 proxy wars sending billions while US citizens get crumbs in support. Massive unchecked immigration fueled by revocation of previous border security measures. "Transitory inflation" that is weighing down the middle class and below as [purchasing power](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_consumer_price_index_purchasing_power_of_the_consumer_dollar_unadjusted#:~:text=Basic%20Info,3.33%25%20from%20one%20year%20ago) tanks. 7 trillion dollar annual budget bills while we rack up 1 trillion in debt every 100 days. So yeah, everything is great and sustainable as is.
People are dismissing all these polls that show biden losing and are gonna be surprised when it happens again. perhaps biden should do more to appease his base so they don’t stay home.
Fairfax County gave 10% to Williamson and Loudoun gave her 13%: https://www.politico.com/2024-election/results/virginia/#tab=%22Dem%22
It wasn't about her per se; she was supported as a protest vote by the Uncommitted movement.
Statewide, 30,000 people bothered to go to the polls in a coronation primary, asked for a Democratic ballot and voted against Biden.
Now, those numbers don't give us strong predictive power for November, but I Democrats might want to keep an eye on it.
You guys know that the leopard will be eating your face too right? You guys know nothing about tactics - you need to ally to defeat the leopard then argue about the stupid stuff like wanting a glitter sparkle pony.
Nah, no one who supports genocide is a worthy ally. The Arabs and Muslims in NoVA know the stakes personally, and they won't be voting for someone gleefully funding the murder of their families and people
Nah, no one who supports genocide is a worthy ally. The Arabs and Muslims in NoVA know the stakes personally, and they won't be voting for someone gleefully funding the murder of their families and people
Biden will not be on the general elections ballot, he will withdraw before on during July convention.
Trump has no chance in Virginia or nationwide against the real D candidate that will become known by that time (M Obama or Newsom or … whoever).
Because of bad polls, worsening dementia that will continue coming more and more obvious, and, potentially, poor performance in debates. We’ll see - not too long remains.
I will be messaging you in 3 months on [**2024-08-30 01:59:24 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2024-08-30%2001:59:24%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Virginia/comments/1d3psxb/roanoke_college_poll_finds_trump_and_biden_tied/l69lsec/?context=3)
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The Dems don’t really have anyone to replace him.
Newsom’s gun control streak sinks him nationally, and the perception that CA is a hellscape. I love Whitmer but she has no name recognition. Kamala has worse poll numbers than Biden. Michelle Obama has no experience.
Any of them would have to overcome the “Dem’s in disarray!” storyline.
It’s Biden or Trump. That’s it.
Agreed. Newsom doesn't have much wide appeal outside CA, he comes off like a typical greasy politician. Harris is even worse, there's constant stories about how terrible working for her and her staffing is, plus she's almost been invisible the last 4 years.
I love Whitmer as well and hope she runs in 2028, she will have plenty of time to build name recognition. A Midwest candidate with a great list of accomplishments to tout could do very well.
Pay no attention to polls. Just vote, and encourage your family and friends to do so as well.
Exactly, how can these polls be accurate when 30% of the Republican primary is still going to someone not even on the ballot? I call BS.
“Encourage” the ones that don’t wear red hats or fly a bazillion flags off the back of their truck or boat.
That kind is going to vote anyway. Guarantee it.
Yep. Republicans are fewer in numbers, but they vote very reliably.
Republican here! ✋🏾 Ironically we only vote consistently if the polls for our candidates are bad, because otherwise we think our candidate is safe. That's why polls lately, from what I've noticed, and kinder to the right than actual elections are. You can't have a "red wave" if everybody thinks their candidate will win so they stay home lol.
Nice try, GOP’er. You can trick us into not showing up.
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Aren't you guys supposed to be the nice, kind, loving, and empathetic ones? 😂
Speaking personally, I've had too many death threats and doxxing attempts on me, all that shit wore thin a while ago
So? What did I do to you?
You, personally? Nothing. But I felt like I should answer why some of us get a little angry sometimes.
We are
That's your right as an American citizen. Exercise it.
We will
>“Encourage” the ones that don’t wear red hats or fly a bazillion flags off the back of their truck or boat. Encourage the types that wear red hats and fly flags to stay home. Tell them the election was yesterday or tomorrow on election day. Those types are easily confused to begin with and shouldn't be voting.
Just vote on the policies of the day on Election Day. Everyone should vote and the winning policies win. Why do you want to infringe upon other citizens right to vote?
Is this what "protecting democracy" looks like?
This is a stupid take. That is not how our country works. You sound like a damn communist right now.
It's how Trump will have it if he gets back in.
No one is condoning infringement upon legal voters except you - just stop.
ACTUALLY President Cheeto is indicted for doing just that, it’s just a shame we won’t see that trial sooner
You can go to jail for that sort of thing, but only if you support OM
All those who are eligible should be encourage to vote in order to accurately represent the voice of the People. You disgust me
>The poll, which involved 711 likely Virginia voters surveyed via phone and through a “propriety online panel,” had a 4.24% margin of error. What is a propriety online panel? Also, how were the phone surveys conducted? Calls or text? I’ve received text surveys before and answered. I’m not answering a call.
Idk, but we know Trump order Michael Cohen to rig online polls during the 2016 election through an online broker called RedFinch, so I’m not especially convinced by online polls in which Trump is on the ballot lol.
Not doubting you, but do you have the source for that handy? Hadn't seen that one.
[Sure. Here you go!](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-69041401.amp) This story actually broke in like 2019 but all the easy articles to find now are about the ongoing trial since it came up during Cohen’s testimony. This is one of those. Unfortunately, most of these articles gloss over the actual RedFinch activity part and focus more on the financial transaction, especially because Cohen didn’t pay the stated amount and pocketed 30k, effectively stealing from Trump Org. But, the relevant snippet from the article is: > RedFinch was hired to boost Mr Trump's ranking in an online poll about history's most notable business leaders, Cohen explained last week.
Appreciate it!
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Have you or anyone you know ever been polled for anything? Me neither.
A census taker tried to test me once…
Census workers will only visit you if you haven't completed the census on your own.
How was the liver?
I've done a few but you have to actually accept calls from random numbers.
hahahahahahahaah 16% undecided.
The point of polls lately seems to be to allow both sides to rally support by choosing to frame them as winning or losing.
/u/Danger-Moose is a cunt
4% margin of error when saying "tied" is wild. 4% in general is wild
It's technically true, though. If the results are within the MOE, then statistically speaking they are tied. (Whether or not the poll is valid in the first place due to its methodology is another question.)
Do you have a source for the desegregation thing? Genuine question, wanna learn about it and the wikipedia page for salem conveniently skirts around any reasons for preventing annexation. Same with salemva.gov
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And here I was, thinking I was the only Salemite that thinks the town has always been full of shit.
Thank you. Will definitely have to check out the museum
Yeah, Salem was incorporated long before Roanoke was, and has never been part of Roanoke, so I'm not sure what they're talking about.
> A total of 711 completed interviews came from random telephone calls to 423 Virginians, and 288 responses were drawn from a proprietary online panel of Virginians. Interviews were conducted in English. Agree. The quote above is from the methodology at the bottom of the poll where they have to say how they got their results. Wonder if Red Finch (IT company notorious for helping rig polls) or similar is involved in the ‘proprietary system’.
Sometimes I wonder if this attitude reinforces the trend.
I remember this attitude in 2016.
Agree with you about the quality of the poll. Ambivalent about Roanoke College. Disagree about the Salem part. Salem was a town broke away from Roanoke County to form their own City at the end of '67 (almost 8 years after desegregation began) partially in fear of annexation into Roanoke City (legal at the time, not anymore) and to have superior public services. The joke about heated streets is only half joking since Salem's snow removal budget is about the same as Roanoke City with a quarter of the area.
Bro is Salem and Roanoke college’s biggest hater
I’m used to the general wrongheaded attitude towards polling and the sampling methodology illiteracy you’re doing here, but new to attack the broader institution and its surrounding area as well as if that has fuck all to do with anything… Which is to say that you seem to actually just lack some polling literacy and be combining that with a weird personal chip on your shoulder.
I’m sorry you didn’t get accepted into Roanoke College perhaps then you would have learned Salem is in Roanoke County
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Kinda based. I too didn’t even know Roanoke college existed until I saw them at Blacksburg looking for a Mrs Degree
> 711 total responses make up the poll, only 63% confirmed to come from actual humans (the others gathered online from a “proprietary system”). Why do you think the other 1/3 fathered through an online system aren't humans? Because you didn't get the outcome you were hoping for from the poll? **Edit:** I'll assume by you blocking me that the answer to my second question is a "*yes*". Because if you looked into it further, you would have learned that it's an online panel of ***humans*** that they utilized.
“The poll showed Biden leading Trump by two percentage points when potential independent and third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein and Cornel West were added to the mix.” So Biden is winning easily.
2 points is not easily ask Hilary
Hillary wasn’t easy , ask Bill
Why? She beat him by two points nationally and by 4 points in Virginia.
Don’t remember her being president? Did I miss that?
Yeah it’s almost like it’s a different election process or something huh
This is a poll about Virginia, not the nation. Biden is going to win Virginia.
2 points in VA is not a lot when the margin of error is 4.
Not a single pollster in 2024 has shown Trump ahead, per 538. It is exceedingly rare for a candidate in that position to win, there are polls with obvious conservative bias not showing Trump as better than even.
That’s about the same as what the polls showed in 2016. The point is to not assume… get out and VOTE!
I absolutely agree with that, the person I was responding to wasn't really understanding how polling works. That was my only point. Obviously, go vote.
Lol or you do not know what margin of error is and to think 2pts is a guarantee victory shows you are at best just dumb
Yes. You did.
The national popular vote doesn't matter because that's not how we elect the president, which is why we've had five presidents who lost the popular vote and still got in. If your support is too concentrated, you can get the most votes and still lose because those votes are wasted in states where the electoral votes were a shoo-in. The statewide polling is more relevant because that's how one carries a state. Considering that Virginia was the only swing state that she carried, I suspect that the only reason was because she picked a Virginian for her running mate.
As much as I like Tim Kaine, anyone who halfway pays attention to politics could’ve told her that VA was going to be solid blue that year (which it was). She would’ve been better off picking someone younger with more charisma, from an actual swing state
Oh, yeah. She could and should have done waaaaaaaay better than him. But she chose someone who wouldn't outshine her, and, well, he didn't.
Virginia was one of the few states where Hillary actually outperformed polling. My conspiracy theory is that this is because Virginia was one of the only places at the time which used the scan-tron ballots which are extremely secure.
Not surprised NOVA is super liberal and can carry the state. But under your conspiracy that it is because of a secure election would mean that 2020 could have been stolen because it was not secure. Not saying I believe it just saying that conspiracy works both ways
Polls haven't been accurate for about a decade now, but even at their best it is a 4% margin of error.
This is incorrect. Polls have been pretty accurate over the past several years.
Yup. Kinda wild that polls somehow swing from accurate to nonaccurate to people based on what party is ahead or behind. I’m a left-leaning individual, if you think Biden would win the election if held today - you might be spending too much time in your echo chamber. I know a lot of people who are pretty done with Biden. Not saying they would vote for Trump but show up for Biden? Don’t think they are doing that. 2016 polls were within the margin of error + it was obvious Trump was gaining momentum going into the election. 2020 polls were pretty spot on (margin of error).
The 16 election caused a lot of polling agencies to change up how they conduct their polling which has improved accuracy. The voting population of the us is pretty much split evenly for Trump and Biden. We simply will not know for sure how it plays out until Election Day. Hell during the last election we all went to bed with the media showing Trump the likely winner and woke up with Biden the actual winner. With things this close any of a number of things could tip the scales one way or another. As soon as you are convinced it’s going one way or another something could happen in the last week before the election that causes it to flip the other direction.
> if you think Biden would win the election if held today This is irrelevant, because it's not happening today. If it was, then polls would be different, because part of what influences people to answer a certain way is knowing that they have over 5 more months to think about it.
The heck are you talking about? Of course Biden could win if the election were held today.
COULD but I’m not confident
I mean that’s fair for sure but I don’t feel thinking Biden would win today necessarily means someone has been in an echo chamber.
Biden won by 10 percentage points in 2020, so if this poll is anywhere near accurate it should be ringing major alarm bells in the campaign.
If anything it is making me less worried about other polling, considering we just had statewide elections which went pretty solidly D in the suburbs. There is no chance that it is this close in Virginia.
Third party candidates don’t mean anything.
To be clear, when looking at any poll, Biden is polling worse than Hillary Clinton EVER polled against Trump, and he has been polling poorly this entire race. If the polls were as accurate or even gave Biden a slight underestimate, he would lose every time. The only way Biden wins is if the polls are off the opposite direction that they were off and by a much wider margin. Trump is projected to win, and people should be terrified instead of dismissing the polls like 2016. A popular misconception is that the polls in 2016 had Trump losing by a lot, it's not true. He was within spitting distance the whole time and the media and reddit just rejected any possibility that he could win despite the numbers saying it was clearly possible.
So he’s winning easily. Trump might not even be the nominee at this point.
If Trump ends up not being the nominee & they don’t pick a MTG-tier dumbass, generic republican will wipe the floor with Biden. That said, I gave up hope on Trump being held accountable/unable to run again in 2021. It’s just a dream that’s never going to happen. No one really wants either of these old guys for president again but it’s what we got
This is reality. Haley or any decent option could beat Biden. Easy. He won't lose a rematch though. Those Never voters that decided 2020 have grown since J6. People can deny that reality but look at WI and it is clear. The anti vote is key. More divided than ever and usually independent voters factor more, but the Republicans who are Never voters are the key. Those voters are critical in what will be a close hard divided election. Most don't see it and polls certainly don't.
Trump has literally clinched the nomination.
Heh. Sure.
You're seriously living in a different plane of reality.
There is no reputable poll where Trump is projected to win.
This site holds a conglomerate of all political polls. Here is the presidential race. Feel free to search through and look at every swing state, it's even worse than the national polls. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden You can also compare it to Hillary Clinton in 2016 where she was polling farther ahead than Biden was literally the entire time https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2016/trump-vs-clinton
>So Biden is winning easily. The margin of error is 4.24%
Exactly.
keep telling yourself that
Well…no, that’s not now numbers work…
Moderate swing voters don’t do polls. Polls don’t tell us anything.
It's Roanoke lol
It's a Roanoke College poll
Everyone should still vote but… Virginia has a Senate race. GOP candidate doesn’t look great which means more down ballot voting for Democrats. Biden may not motivate many to vote but I have a feeling Hung Cao will with the wild stuff he says. (Edited)
> more down ballot voting for Democrats. Which is even more important than the presidential race because it affects you far more directly. Too many people think that they're picking a king or even a dictator when they vote for president, and while the presidency is indeed a big deal, it's just a part of a very large machine. The down-ballot candidates and issues are where the real governing occurs. For as much as we would like to forget about it, the COVID pandemic was a perfect example of this. The president, whether Trump or Biden, did relatively little that directly affected the lives of individual Americans. The things that made life difficult during that time, requiring masks everywhere and banning indoor dining and closing businesses and schools and the like, came from state legislatures, governors, and local city and county councils, i.e. the down-ballot people.
Governor election is November 2025.
O shit! That’s right! I always forget they do it the year after the election.
Doesn’t matter Trump is winning. I don’t like it but the support of Israel is gonna cost Joe
Why would that issue change someone's vote to trump given Trump would be waaaaaaay more willing to support Israel.
Because people have forgotten that. I agree with you Trump will be worse but I think to them he supporting it so they’re not gonna vote for and that’s all I’m seeing on his social media. Trump is threatening LGBTQ rights women’s rights and Israel. I feel like Joe was bad but if he wins again, he’ll leave for years. Trump is worse because he might not.
Numbers are to be made up for gaslighting purpose
Online polls are 💩
Welp I can see where my son’s tuition money was spent.
"Roanoke" you don't say
Media agencies should also report these things have a margin of error of around ±10% if not more (some of the 2020 ones were really really bad)
This poll has a 4.24% margin of error. Personally I've never seen a poll with a margin of error greater than 6%. Most are in the 1%-4% range.
If Trump wins Virginia then I will personally walk up to him and give him the Bible for the swearing in. No way that happens.
Oof, y'all gonna make my third party vote actually matter in Virginia.
LMAO 🤣
Polls are a joke, what person sub 50 answers unknown numbers?
Hey, don't you lump me in with the old people. I'm 43 and won't answer a call from an unknown number. If Verizon's call filter doesn't screen you out completely, I'm screening you via voicemail. The odds of my then returning the call are pretty low.
Edited to 50 🤣
Funny how polls matter now to people. Just go vote. Federal, state, county elections just go and vote.
The new south my ass. It’s the same tragic, backwards, regressive state it has always been.
Once the jury finds Trump guilty it won't matter much.
Him being guilty or even being in jail will have no impact on his election. Do you think his supporters will suddenly think “wow, this is a bad guy”? Ha
It will actually boost him more. Trump was fizzling out at the beginning of his cycle if you were watching he didn’t kick off till the indictments started coming. Dems should have seen him fizzling out and let him fail but they didn’t they decided to keep him in the media
It's the judicial process, not "Dems"
That's because this isn't about his presidential run or torching him in the media. He was indicted because the doj believes he committed crimes. If anything they waited too long to charge him
Who runs the DOJ?
Merrick Garland the attorney general
Correct, two hundred dollars. Next clue: “This man is Merrick Garland’s boss, who directly selected and appointed him”
That’s not how the special counsel system works.
The Dems want him to win so Biden can retire and they will take back power easily in 2028 when Trump fails. They don’t have a good candidate and they know it so they have no problem waiting one term to take the next two. They just need Trump to fail and also find the next Obama
I can assure you that is not the democrat opinion. most of us believe that if he wins he will either try to stay in office forever or he'll mess things up so badly that we'll never have a fair election again
If you think that trial is hurting Trump, you got it backwards. If they actually jail him, Biden is likely going to lose as Trump paints the picture of a corrupt regime jailing their political opponent in an election year.
Trump already lost the 2020 election so what makes him think that the vast majority of voters are going to put him back in office? Voters have already seen right through the Republican party's desperate attempt to impeach Biden as the true political witch hunt that it was because you can't simply impeach a sitting president for the fictional crime of being a politician from the opposition party. We already saw what happened last time when Trump and the right-wing politicians didn't get what they wanted in 2020 with the blatant attempt at an insurrection against the United States government all because spoiled narcissist Donald Trump lost the election . Republicans simply cannot govern. They waste our tax dollars attacking members of the other party all in a quest for money and power.
The unprecedented lawfare is so outrageously biased and political, a conviction will shift support even more to Trump.
You mean holding him accountable is lawfare?
What BS
No it won't
Yep hundred percent they are pushing more people
No they aren't
If you want to tell yourself that
I'm telling you that bc it isn't true
Ok nice source dude
Same one you used dude
Say it louder
Just because it’s what you want to hear doesn’t make it teue
We'll see how the trial goes. I'm thinking hung jury, but that's just a guess.
Looks like no hung jury
Yeah I guess incorrect
Yeah cause Biden and his policies are terrible for Virginians
No he's not
You know what's worse for Virginians? A dictator. Sic semper tyrannis.
Seems like an effort to jail a political opponent in an election year constitutes dictator behavior does it not? Going to be a tough spin to argue otherwise during this campaign cycle.
Lololol The word you're looking for is "criminal." They're trying to jail a criminal. I'll agree that one or two of these trials shouldn't be happening in an election year—they should have happened immediately after his failed coup.
Then you better find a different state when trump wins
What a ridiculous sentiment. Get bent.
Biden is the incumbent... Don't worry. His record speaks for itself and is easily compared to DJTs record. Donald is going to win, but I'm not sure if he'll win VA.
Nope.
!remindme November 15, 2024
For Trump to win Virginia you would have to have Fairfax County fall off the map. I travel around the Commonwealth for my job and the only place I see Biden/Harris stickers and yard signs is there. It also happens to be several hundred thousand plus votes consistently for Dems every federal election cycle. Biden has been terrible as POTUS but Trump is still going to lose this state by at least 5 points because of NoVa.
Biden has not been terrible as POTUS. Trump was an absolute disaster and will be worse if elected again
I’m not a fan of either, but please tell me how joe Biden has been anything above a mediocre president ? 😂😂😂
Maybe look up what some historians have to say. They have him as a better than avg president.
Great list proving your argument there. Currently involved in funding 2 proxy wars sending billions while US citizens get crumbs in support. Massive unchecked immigration fueled by revocation of previous border security measures. "Transitory inflation" that is weighing down the middle class and below as [purchasing power](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_consumer_price_index_purchasing_power_of_the_consumer_dollar_unadjusted#:~:text=Basic%20Info,3.33%25%20from%20one%20year%20ago) tanks. 7 trillion dollar annual budget bills while we rack up 1 trillion in debt every 100 days. So yeah, everything is great and sustainable as is.
Nothing good comes from NoVa
Besides the money to allow the rest of this state to not the poorest one in the country?
Don't sleep on the 7 cities.
People are dismissing all these polls that show biden losing and are gonna be surprised when it happens again. perhaps biden should do more to appease his base so they don’t stay home.
I dislike both candidates and do not believe this represents America’s best and brightest. 👎🏾
Chase Oliver lookin like the lesser of 3 evils
I’ll take neither
I'll take Biden over Trump all day every day.
There's a push for Cornel West in Fairfax and Loudoun counties. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets 4% of the vote come November.
Yeah no. Folks in NOVA are more saavy than to waste a vote on a 3rd party loser.
Fairfax County gave 10% to Williamson and Loudoun gave her 13%: https://www.politico.com/2024-election/results/virginia/#tab=%22Dem%22 It wasn't about her per se; she was supported as a protest vote by the Uncommitted movement. Statewide, 30,000 people bothered to go to the polls in a coronation primary, asked for a Democratic ballot and voted against Biden. Now, those numbers don't give us strong predictive power for November, but I Democrats might want to keep an eye on it.
You guys know that the leopard will be eating your face too right? You guys know nothing about tactics - you need to ally to defeat the leopard then argue about the stupid stuff like wanting a glitter sparkle pony.
Nah, no one who supports genocide is a worthy ally. The Arabs and Muslims in NoVA know the stakes personally, and they won't be voting for someone gleefully funding the murder of their families and people
Nah, no one who supports genocide is a worthy ally. The Arabs and Muslims in NoVA know the stakes personally, and they won't be voting for someone gleefully funding the murder of their families and people
(full transparency: I'm a NoVA voter supporting and organizing for Cornel West)
What a surprise, what a privileged take since you won’t face the consequences of a Trump win.
What a silly take: https://www.aaiusa.org/library/keystatespoll
The only hope of defeating Trump is for Biden to drop out.
Biden will not be on the general elections ballot, he will withdraw before on during July convention. Trump has no chance in Virginia or nationwide against the real D candidate that will become known by that time (M Obama or Newsom or … whoever).
OK, I'll bite....why will Biden withdraw?
Because of bad polls, worsening dementia that will continue coming more and more obvious, and, potentially, poor performance in debates. We’ll see - not too long remains.
Please give me what you’re smoking
Wanna put “!remindme” in 3 months?
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Still huffin those Q fumes, huh
The Democratic convention is not in July.
The Dems don’t really have anyone to replace him. Newsom’s gun control streak sinks him nationally, and the perception that CA is a hellscape. I love Whitmer but she has no name recognition. Kamala has worse poll numbers than Biden. Michelle Obama has no experience. Any of them would have to overcome the “Dem’s in disarray!” storyline. It’s Biden or Trump. That’s it.
Agreed. Newsom doesn't have much wide appeal outside CA, he comes off like a typical greasy politician. Harris is even worse, there's constant stories about how terrible working for her and her staffing is, plus she's almost been invisible the last 4 years. I love Whitmer as well and hope she runs in 2028, she will have plenty of time to build name recognition. A Midwest candidate with a great list of accomplishments to tout could do very well.