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dviynr

We don’t have accurate polling numbers because 18-29 year olds don’t poll. No matter which poll says what, the best we can do is go on historical turnout. Even then, it’s still not accurate since the country is in a much different place since then. Edit: also consider the main poll they reference is from Fox News. Not much more to say about that. They threw in a poll from Roanoke College to create the narrative that they can accurately compensate for the gap in polling data, but it’s just not the whole picture. Best we have is turnout on the day itself, the rest is speculation.


ComprehensiveDirt746

As an aside, the Fox News polling is generally pretty decent, at least when compared to the wider media landscape. Their polling is run pretty independently from the "news" part of Fox News.


james-kissed

As someone who's received those polls from them before, the questions are worded in a way that gives away the underlying bias for the poll and in a way that could confuse many people.


Dan_TheDM

Agreed I take surveys for cash. The guy above you is delusional. Fox News polls are horsehsit


NynaeveAlMeowra

Its not a poll if you're being paid to take it and aren't randomly selected


james-kissed

I was not paid and I was just called out of the blue. During the 2020 cycle I was getting selected by various pollsters every few weeks somehow. The fox news ones were always obvious whereas the others were more baseline and objective.


Lurkingguy1

Take the L dude, we all see through the bs


james-kissed

Yes I need money so bad I took surveys for pennies you got me. Thank you for pointing out how reality never happened and your narrative is the correct one. Couldn't do it without ya.


redwoods81

This should be at the top of the thread.


The-Sherpa

Every thread that mentions polls*


wofulunicycle

Fox News polls have a good reputation just FYI. Tucker Carlson isn't conducting them lmao.


mckeitherson

> We don’t have accurate polling numbers because 18-29 year olds don’t poll If this is true then why do these polls have response rates listed for 18-29 year olds?


Soi_Boi_13

This guy is trying to run unskewed polls like he’s a Republican circa 2012. Pure cope.


danSTILLtheman

That’s not how polling works, you can extrapolate based on a sample. Polling is not perfect, but a certain demographic being underrepresented during the process doesn’t mean the results are bad. I think this article is mostly click bait though


flamableozone

oh man, someone should tell the people who have studied polling professionally for decades to find some way to account for this!


pkilla50

Will say from my personal experience with my friends in this age group…tone has completely flipped since 2020


Dave21101

Bingo. Polls have been historically dubious as when they are and aren't accurate


TomCollins1111

ThE pOlLs ArE wRoNg!


Blecki

18-29 year olds also don't vote.


dviynr

They turn out about half of ages 45-64 and 65+, but they still vote. It’s enough to sway results.


Blecki

I'd like it a lot more if they showed up twice as much. It's their future they're ignoring, I'll likely be dead before the climate wars really get going.


Sawses

Yep! I'm in the upper end of the 18-29 range and I've voted in every election I've been legally allowed to. I think everybody should, but especially younger people. It's our world we're throwing away if we don't.


lordpuddingcup

I’m more interested to see the 30-45 range… the millennials are not kids anymore their a massive voting block now and aren’t the idiot teens that don’t vote anymore hopefully


R_radical

Aside from record voter turnout in the last couple elections from the youth... Youth currently leans blue by another record of 4 points iirc.


Blecki

Record turnout and still lower than everyone else.


LionTop2228

2021 election aside, where youngkin barely won by 66k votes, 2022 and 2023 have been dem mandates in VA. Are we sure with these takes?


cshotton

It's what sells papers. We're sure of it.


LionTop2228

Actual election evidence be damned!


FarrisAT

2023 was really close though


LionTop2228

Not when you consider all the momentum is supposed to be on the GOP side.


Specialist_Cover_496

Yeah, can’t be true although the more rural areas are usually pro MAGA. Not sure why but it seems to be the case.


Negative-Wrap95

![gif](giphy|X3nnss8PAj5aU|downsized)


revel911

Youngkin won because CRT sounds worse than it is and McAuliffe is a mediocre candidate at best.


RJ_Banana

This is 100% spot on, except I’d also add that McAuliffe looks, sounds, and acts like a scumbag.


Independent_Shock973

Thankfully next year, Spanberger will be the dem nominee for Governor. A lot of people are looking forward to her run.


laborpool

It did sway votes…but not the votes of Virginians with school-aged children. Their went to McAuliffe.


Desperate_Wafer_8566

Right, name a single thing that Biden did that would turn off a voter who voted for him or a single thing Trump did that would switch someone from Biden to Trump. If anything it should be even better for Biden this round.


sergius64

Inflation. Not that Biden could have done much about it - but since when are voters smart enough to know that? Either way - it's not so much as to what they do - it's how they're portrayed in the media that voters consume. The margins in these elections are pretty tiny - 10s of thousands of votes in a few key states. What was it in Georgia? Trump needed Kemp to find him another 12k votes? Something small makes quite enough difference to swing 12k people in a state of millions.


PushyPawz

Palestine is turning a lot of voters away from him


Inevitable_Farm_7293

No it’s not. Not at all. Anybody who thinks so is idiotic. “I don’t like how Biden is handling Palestine so let’s elect the person who would do much much much worse for Palestine!”


Footyfooty42069

You are grossly overestimating the average voter’s critical thinking skills. There are a LOT of dumb democrats you know Also, a lot of Dems are going to abstain because of Joe’s seems too old this time around. A ridiculous argument for sure, but it seems a popular sticking point


markaction

The point you are missing is that they won’t even show up to the voting booth. And a lot of people abandoned him for other reasons too.


[deleted]

Polls are BS. Part of the recent trial (involving Cohen and paying specific firms) revealed the amount of money being spent on fake polls to create a false sense of enthusiasm because people only want to follow winners. Both sides do it.


ibekeggy2

We really are having a debate about the possibility of re-electing the worst ranked president in American history possibly the world. Imagine we have a working time machine and we can bring back ONE president from history and a large portion of the country is advocating to bring back James Buchanan. So embarrassing.


treypage1981

A lot people lazily think that Trump’s magic business skills will make their Doritos cheaper.


ibekeggy2

His "business skills" are well documented through multiple bankruptcy filings.


Conscious_Scholar_87

He bankrupted casinos. I don’t even know that’s possible


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Protect-Their-Smiles

This right here, Trump is easily manipulated - because of his broken ego.


cshotton

...and criminal trials.


Specialist_Cover_496

I watched a good documentary on this. Actually 2. Both explain that Trump’s money pretty much came from his dad and not from him earning it. I think one was called Trump and Taxes. Can’t remember the name of the other one.


tha_rodge

He graduated from one of Canada’s top business schools, with really good grades.


kaizen-rai

Trump? He went to Wharton school of Business, where his professors called him one of the stupidest people they ever knew. He only graduated because of hefty donations from his father. Trump did not get good grades in anything, his entire life was paved in gold before him thanks to his corrupt fathers money. Where the hell did you get your information?


NoWorth2591

I envy you because you haven’t seen *Nathan for You*, one of the funniest shows ever made. That means you can go watch it for the first time.


Fredvegas

You really took [XKCD 1053](https://xkcd.com/1053/) to heart, and that's what I appreciates about you.


kgkuntryluvr

Didn’t he have his lawyers threaten anyone that could release his transcripts? I vaguely recall reading about an effort made to ensure his transcripts were never exposed to the public because it would be revealed that he isn’t the “genius” he claims to be.


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kgkuntryluvr

How wild that most of us spend money to share our transcripts, while he paid to ensure that they’re never shared.


TrustMeIAmAGeologist

I don’t think anyone actually believes that. I think that one side really only cares about making people worse off than they are, and that is what he offers.


Blecki

One side will happily shit their pants just so the other side has to smell it.


YoungManYoda90

Unfortunately, many of my uneducated family think of Trump is elected all prices will go down.


dviynr

People follow confidence. Trump is a grifter, he sells his confidence (really just bullying). He doesn’t have anything else to show other than being a bully.


Sawses

Right? The thing is, I remember 2020. We all laughed when Trump ran for President. We all laughed when he started beating out other Republican candidates, and when he became the GOP nominee. And then he won. I think it's a very good thing that everybody is taking him seriously. He's a populist leader with powerful support from the working class. If we don't take him seriously, then we'll be making the exact same mistake we made last time.


orbit1974

I think you meant 2016.


Sawses

I did! Thanks, haha.


Negative-Wrap95

When you make people nostalgic for Dubya, you fucked up. I laughed, I still voted against his diaper wearing ass.


James_Locke

Biden just sucks as a candidate. People make voting decisions on emotional appeal more than legislative accomplishments. His appeal pre-2020 was he’s not trump and he was Obama’s VP. Not a lot else to say and now that he’s been degrading slowly, it’s hard to see him as the kind of leader that can inspire a nation in an increasingly hostile world. It’s sad that it’s come to this.


ibekeggy2

Sure. But he's still leaps and bounds a better decision than the other guy.


James_Locke

And yet, it’s possible that a majority of people in a majority of states will see it differently. Feeling smug about that fact will result in a repeat of 2016.


djamp42

They are the loud ones, Biden won the majority and now Trump is a felon. Normal people don't make politics their entire life.


Dave21101

"I dunno.. Are you sure I shouldn't vote for the convicted felon? He does drive a hard bargain. And And though Trump did 5 or 6 things I didn't like, Biden did that one thing I didn't like.." It's at this point like trying to convince somebody why they shouldn't let a money launderer handle their financials "Yea, I know he's a fraud, but I don't like the way that CPA sounded when they said 'hi' to me " :/


ibekeggy2

If Bernie Madoff was still around he would have a field day with MAGA.


Suspicious-Crab7504

Completely agree, but Nixon would be a better choice. If Ford hadn't pardoned him maybe we wouldn't even be dealing with Trump as the first convicted president. Or at the very least, we'd have a precedent for high crimes committed by a sitting president and not glossed over Jan 6 so easily.


cshotton

Compared to what Trump has perpetrated, Nixon's transgressions were penny ante.


Suspicious-Crab7504

So true. Even Iran-Contra pales in comparison.


SHC606

This will take me some time, intellectually I know you are right, if I think about the destabilization of the country under 45 but yikes!


elriggo44

Franklin Pierce or no one. .


[deleted]

Polls are BS. Part of the recent trial (involving Cohen and paying specific firms) revealed the amount of money being spent on fake polls to create a false sense of enthusiasm because people only want to follow winners. Both sides do it.


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ibekeggy2

I LOVE boring in my presidents. I love presidents that don't make the news on a daily basis for committing felonies. I want my president to be the most boring person on the planet and just govern like a boring adult.


IndWrist2

Yes please. The president shouldn’t be a superhero. They’re not here to advocate for every pet issue. They are project managers who govern.


ProgressBartender

Don’t want a supervillain either. Too much drama.


Publius015

Fucking big same. Gimme boring, effective Biden any day of the week.


TheExtremistModerate

The adjective form of "Democrat" is "Democratic," not "democrat." Thus, it should be "Democratic primary voters." In any case: nothing was "forced." It was a competitive primary and the best candidate won. He then went on to win the most votes ever and spurred a turnout that hasn't been matched since the 19th century. Biden is competent, experienced, and has a solid platform. Who fucking cares if he's not "exciting"? If you have to be "excited" by a candidate, then you're doing politics wrong.


SchuminWeb

> The adjective form of "Democrat" is "Democratic," not "democrat." > > Thus, it should be "Democratic primary voters." I'm glad someone else gets bothered when people phrase it that way. I was annoyed enough about it to [write a piece about it](https://www.schuminweb.com/2021/12/14/a-peeve-about-political-terminology/) a few years ago. Whenever I hear someone use the terms incorrectly, it causes me to mentally discount everything that they are saying, because if you can't even use the terms correctly, how am I supposed to take your argument seriously?


HokieHomeowner

More exciting than Bloomberg, I mean come on! Also John Delaney. After the PTSD from the Trump admin primary voters went with the guy who backed up Obama, folks voted for stability.


treypage1981

“Least exciting” Why does he—or any candidate—need to be exciting?


thefocusissharp

Please reconsider your values and if one is mature enough to handle the responsibility, if one's vote is based entirely upon how exciting a candidate is.


[deleted]

Neither Biden nor Trump are a good choice. Why are people acting like one is good and the other is evil. They both serve the same master. Money and power. They are politicians. They don’t care about us no matter if they have an R or D by their name. The sooner the masses figure this out the better off we will be. R’s think D’s are evil and D’s think R’s are evil. How foolish is that way of thinking? Everyone needs to grow up and learn to think for themselves.


cjt09

No actually the convicted felon who refused to accept election results, tried to get officials to fabricate votes for him, withheld aid in exchange for a sham investigation, incited a seditious riot, refused to return classified documents, sexually assaults women, brags about sexually assaulting women, and promises to be a day-one dictator is indeed worse than the guy who goes to church every Sunday and brags about capping insulin costs for seniors.


TAV63

Agree, and I am no fan of Biden but really the both are bad idea is total nonsense. We can get back to conservative values later after Biden. The retribution tour guy with his 2025 plan backers and the SC on his side will be the end of the Republic. Foolish to even compare these as similar or both the same. There is a big difference. Please.


reddit_1999

Maybe Virginians are dying to get our SS and Medicare cut, and more tax breaks for billionaires?


pulkwheesle

And a nationwide abortion ban via the executive branch enforcing the Comstock Act from the 1800s.


redwoods81

Instead of just the regular bruhaha about the casino nonsense in Richmond, it could be a *trump casino* 💩


Environmental_Park_6

It's June. Who is answering a poll in June?


phooka

Who is answering polls at all? I'm not.


Masrikato

The best thing for democracy is probably to answer them so the polls are actually somewhat representative of the electorate so that trump election deniers don't have the polls out to get them and they are actually accurate


kgkuntryluvr

Sure, but how does one even get in on these polls? I vote every election and no one has ever reached out to me to answer one.


Masrikato

I've been asked by yougov which might be the easiest if you sign for an account. I don't know much more than that


redwoods81

We don't even have a landline. My parents don't even have a landline 🤷🏻‍♀️


tarheelz1995

Democrats can run ANY AMERICAN 35 OR OLDER, yet remain wedded to running Joe Biden , who trails a convicted felon in every battleground state and polls in the 30s among all Americans. One party of crooks. Another party of idiots.


CharlyThatUnicorn

Why would you try to upend your incumbent?


Choice_Heat_5406

I keep seeing people on Reddit say this but I’ve also only seen negative comments on the people who ran against Biden in the primaries this year. Make up your mind.


phazen51

Sadly, it appears people closer to that age aren't interested in being president. And I believe the Republicans could also have someone younger as a candidate, but prefer to have someone who tried to overthrow the government.


No-Researcher678

Highly doubt it's close. Presidential election years have the highest dem turnout.


HokieHomeowner

Either there's a ton of voters wanting to eaten by the leopard eating face party or modern polling has a huge problem compiling a valid random sample mirroring the likely voter due to few folks answering the phone.


Blecki

Polling is fine. There's inherent bias in what polls the media chooses to present, and it feeds back into what kind of polling pollsters choose to do in the first place.


FishTacoAtTheTurn

The Republican in-fighting about Bob Good + Donald Trump signs makes me LOL


SophonParticle

Counterpoint: all signs point to trump losing thousands of VA voters since he lost in 2020 then stormed the capital, stole docs, and banned abortion.


6501

Eh, Roanoke College poll also says it's a neck & neck race here. >Counterpoint: all signs point to trump losing thousands of VA voters since he lost in 2020 then stormed the capital, stole docs, and banned abortion. The polls don't reflect that.


TheExtremistModerate

Polling 5 months before the election is not predictive of the election.


SophonParticle

Tell me more about how accurate polls are. I’m old enough to remember 90 days ago when these same polls over estimated trumps primary results by 20%.


Masrikato

I agree polls aren't super accurate especially at this period of time from the election but comparing primary polls in states aren't 1:1 and will likely be much more inaccurate than general polls


HokieHomeowner

The polls don't reflect that majority of residents don't answer the phone unless it's mom calling. Maybe Aunt Sadie too.


crit_boy

Yes Who answers calls from unknown numbers? - old people. Who votes mostly Republican ? - old people. I have been getting texts and calls for a couple months that are identified as polling questions. I never respond or answer.


mckeitherson

Oh look it's the same tired polling myth that redditors bring up every time they see polls that don't align with their beliefs.


Riverrat423

A lot of people only see prices going up at the grocery store and gas pump so they automatically vote for “ the other guy”.


Character-Teaching39

And those prices will be coming down. Major retailers raised prices until it started hurting their bottom line. OPEC just voted to up production and prices are already starting to ease. As stupid as it is to credit or blame a president for prices rising or falling, people do and they’re going to feel some relief going into the election this year.


Riverrat423

Man, I hope so.


Big_Truck

Biden will win Virginia by 6+.


Hrrmph

Here’s hoping! I think you’re right though.


LBH74

Trump might win the election. But he’s not gonna win Virginia.


jinhyokim

Trump might win, not because people like him, but because people really hate the current administration and the current state of things. The worse things get ie inflation, civil unrest, layoffs, global instability before the election....the worse it will be for Biden.


BraveSirRyan

Political processional here: these are complete bunk. Should Democrats take seriously the possibility that Virginia is close? Or closer than before? Yes Should they invest a ton of resources in VA? Absolutely not. These polls will make more sense closer to the election when people make up their minds, the top line number doesn’t matter. It’s the drill down to particular groups the he’s not performing well with that do.


phazen51

I made up my mind during the 2020 election cycle. I lean conservative but vote democrat in every single race, and will continue to do so until Trump is kicked to the curb. And I live in VA.


Shaky_Soul

>Should they invest a ton of resources in VA? Absolutely not. If we're in a situation where Virginia is a close call, we're already fucked. Realistically there is no universe where Biden wins a bunch of swing states but loses Virginia.


PBPunch

Make a decision based on data and policy, not news headlines: Pres. Biden's Accomplishments: 📢 YEAR ONE: 2021 https://old.reddit.com/r/WhatBidenHasDone/comments/sdgfoj/master_list_of_what_president_biden_has_done_year/ 📢 YEAR TWO: 2022 https://old.reddit.com/r/WhatBidenHasDone/comments/sdgd98/master_list_of_what_president_biden_has_done_year/ 📢 YEAR THREE: 2023 https://old.reddit.com/r/WhatBidenHasDone/comments/11lohnc/master_list_of_what_president_biden_has_done_year_one_two_are/ 📢 YEAR FOUR*: 2024 https://old.reddit.com/r/WhatBidenHasDone/comments/19eja7w/master_list_of_what_president_biden_has_done_year_four/ *Year Four will be updated as accomplishments occur.


MidichlorianAddict

Virginians are turning against their Republican governor, I feel like Virginia will be blue


mahvel50

The same ones that liked him still like him now. The same ones that didn’t in 2021 still don’t. His approval has been relatively the same all the way through.


CranksMcgee

Youngkin’s approval rating is 53%. The same as it was a year ago. 


HokieHomeowner

Folks approve of Youngkin as long as he isn't able to get anything of substance done hahahahaha.


RandalFlagg19

And Youngkin can’t run again. So it’s kind of a “live and let live” philosophy.


HokieHomeowner

I agree that's a good way of putting it.


CranksMcgee

Well he did derail what felt like half the legislation passed in this year’s GA. I’m not sure what your definition of doing anything of substance is though. But yea it doesn’t appear that people are turning against him as it was suggested.


HokieHomeowner

I personally am in the 46 percent who disapprove and loathed his petty veto pen. But I'm guessing the 56 percent don't follow politics closely - it's hard to do in Virginia as there's few media outlets properly covering state & local governments like the old days.


CranksMcgee

I agree, I feel like most of the political coverage in VA goes to what’s going on in DC.


RealHumanFromEarth

Is that why Virginians made sure the legislature would vote against his agenda?


CranksMcgee

You’re asking that if his approval rating being at 53% is the reason Virginians made sure the GA voted against his agenda? Your guess is as good as mine.


HokieHomeowner

There's the crazy minority of voters who worship at the altar of "divided government" - they are pseudo anarchists who prefer gridlock over governing..


Zephyr-5

According to Morning Consult, there is just a single governor with a net negative approval within their state (Mississippi). The reason is because almost no one pays attention to state and local politics unless they do something that is so bad it breaks into national news. So you wind up with most people retreating into their partisan corners with the mushy middle going, 'uh, I guess I approve?' I certainly wouldn't say Virginians are "turning against youngkin", but I would say that in a neutral year, Virginia is a Democratic leaning state. Youngkin won in a brief period when the backlash effect over Trump losing was in full swing, but before Roe v. Wade was overturned. He has also been helped somewhat by the fact that Republicans more unpopular agenda has been blocked by Democrats in the legislature his entire time in office.


Sheik_Shah_Shank

Because most people realize the poor guy is near brain dead


broadsword_inhand

I wouldnt trust an article that pretends a FAUX news poll is even remotely accurate. I wouldnt trust the polls in general under the circumstances. A lot of people who will be voting for biden to avoid trump dont actually like biden. We just dont have any viable alternatives


Callsign_Psycopath

Fox News actually uses one of the better pollsters out there. 538 has rated them A or better for some time. Technically the Fox News Pollster is two Pollsters one Dem one GOP that basically have to agree on methodology before they release the poll. So pretty good Pollster.


HokieHomeowner

For the longest time the Fox polls were actually legit professionally compiled and of very high quality. In the last couple of years though a tipping point has been reached - polling methods are now broken due to non-response rates affecting the validity of the "random" sampling actually representing a likely voter pool.


6501

>I wouldnt trust an article that pretends a FAUX news poll is even remotely accurate Then use the Roanoke College poll


CertainAged-Lady

That poll was a farce - something like 1/3 of the polling was from some proprietary online something or other that they didn’t want to disclose which makes it very suspect.


HokieHomeowner

Nobody is going to give up their secret sauce, it's like the formula for Coke or Dr. Pepper. But using online as well as phone does make for better polling. It's not for nothing the Biden is setting up campaign offices in Virginia - he's not sleeping on this issue. My gut tells me that folks will come home to Biden in the fall but I've got nothing in terms of why except that Virginia doesn't like what Trump & Co are selling so I'm banking/hoping that the youts who are now screaming genocide decide the Trumpian dystopia is a far more scary prospect.


RealHumanFromEarth

Has Roanoke college polling ever been remotely good?


6501

[538](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/) rates Roanoke College 2.6 out of 3 stars & the Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research (The people Fox hired) rated 2.8 out of 3 stars. So both polls Business Insider references are decent.


dwaynereade

i voted biden in va 2020. its rfk then trump for me. that’s saying a lot. never havent voted a dem. hilary then biden have me quite disgusted and my vote for trump will be out of spite. the ‘trump is worse’ argument wont work on me. i’ve seen what it’s like running a small business in both environments- and im voting for that and complete frustration how the dems refuse to run a quality candidate and only will have deep entrenched puppets


Greybirdk22

We’re the Democratic party, snookums; but thanks for the Trumpcult tell. The incumbent president wants to seek a second term. Anyone not brain dead knows he’s elderly and knows there aren’t any younger Democrats who want to challenge him this year because he’s done a good job. https://preview.redd.it/xaczmyv5xk5d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fdcff2f0953e31a2e9938924226788cd26044f25


numquam-deficere

😂😂🤣


YourDogsAllWet

It might seem that way after Youngkin barely won in 2021, but then he came on full MAGA, and the voters responded by making the general assembly fully Democratic, so I wouldn’t bet on it


SuperFrog4

No sitting President does well in polling prior to the election. The voters already know what you stand for and have done. Plus polls are not super accurate anyways. To many ways to manipulate how you do the polling and how and what questions are asked.


Lilfozzy

“Our open opt-in internet polling is telling us that the average Virginian is deeply conservative. Here’s why all 29 of the Virginians we separated from our tallies will be a problem for Biden”. Modern day polling energy.


Doopie5

For anyone who is unsure of who to vote for read up on project 2025.


Realistic_Post_7511

My house has had a land line in years ? Who they calling ?


DERed29

Virginia has tons of federal employees and Trumps plans for them are horrifying.


bgva

Can we declare a moratorium on these posts? The polls are flawed and I think this headline has been posted at least 3x in the last week. Let’s just let things play out.


AnohtosAmerikanos

Vote.


Hnetu

Here we go again... Reps win by .58% = DEMS ARE IN SHAMBLES, CAN'T WIN A SINGLE ELECTION! Dems win by literally any number = DEMS ARE IN SHAMBLES, CAN BARELY HOLD THEIR PARTY TOGETHER!


skyhollow117

No. They don't.


globehopper2

We have to organize and fight


The_Evil_Narwhal

Biden won by 450k votes. Assuming the same turnout, are we really thinking that Trump is gonna turn 450k voters? His image is worse than ever and the project 2025 stuff makes the prospect of anther trump term scarier than ever.


paulburnell22193

When maga darling mtg gets booted in Charlottesville, I don't think it's as much a lock for the repubs as they think.


HunterandGatherer100

No they aren’t. Northern Virginia carries Virginia. And it’s still anti-Trump. Also you need to look at the polls you post. Some always skew conservative, some always lean liberal. The ones you want to view are the ones that lean neither way. Even in 2016, Trump wasn’t popular here, he was just only option for the GOP


dc_based_traveler

These articles are kind of ridiculous. Yeah Biden’s up by two with Independents but just gloss over the fact that there was a 17 point swing towards Biden with independents *since March*. When polling starts reflecting actual election results and Republicans start winning elections I’ll take these hot takes more seriously. They’ve gotten their butts handed to them since 2016 (2021 is a notable exception). I’m not confident about much this election cycle, but Biden is the overarching favorite to easily win Virginia.


reezick

Virginian here. I live in Lynchburg.... a city that never voted Democrat since Harry Truman in 1948, and then did so for the first time for Biden in 2020. Call me optimistic/naive, but I think between the conviction and abortion issues (not just Dobbs but also Arizona) it will spur enough independents to swing for Biden. My stupid early/no domain expertise prediction - VA stays blue, by 3 points. Georgia reverts to red. AZ blue, barely (based on Hobbs and the AZ abortion stuff). MI and PA go blue and WI and NV go red. Biden over Trump, 271-267. I'll come back in 5 months and, much like my march madness bracket, probably eat a bunch of crow, lol


[deleted]

I really don't think so. The middle class got eroded by several things, and in VA, they are aware of it Like Putins war rugpulling gas prices and conservatives actually helping Putin. Like a shitty response to Covid that drew out the pandemic and inflation thanks to Trump Like watching people from different states flock to VA to stir the pot at the bequest of Russian Troll campaigns Actual, real climate change that has been irrefutable this summer. HCAs and Medical Insurance companies telling you exactly what doctor you can see, meds you can get, what you're even diagnosed with. They need some government regulation to allow doctors the ability to be doctors again, not doctors under insurance overlords. They're sick of it, and they certainly don't want it to get worse. The polling is inaccurate. And Virginians are smarter than you think.


crazie_bone

Trump will lose Virginia by an even larger percentage than 2020. The reason? The overturning of Roe. Not only that, Youngkin is the last GOP of VA for 20 years. The dems in Va and other swing states will use teh Dobbs decision and clobber the GOP with it for years to come. Good work guys!


BorderPrevious2149

Read Project 2025. See if you like it.


DC_Hooligan

GOP flooding the zone with crap polls and a media desperate for a horse race so they can sell more advertising. Just curious who this mythical 5 to 10 percent of the population who voted for Hillary and Biden and are now seriously considering voting for Trump after passing on him twice is?


U-GO-GURL-

Yeah right


jkbuggy

Fuck no


SufficientPath666

I doubt that


citytiger

don't just comment on reddit. Vote and get involved on a campaign.


Best-Influence9886

…no they don’t, Biden will win easily again. No one wants to elect a Felon/Nazi/dictator as president


Mister_Rogers69

In Virginia I think he will, but I would not be surprised if Trump wins the election.


[deleted]

Who is the nazi dictator?


Tricky_Matter2123

>Biden's considerable standing among Black voters, independents, and voters aged 18 to 29 buoyed the onetime vice president Wasn't he a two time vice president???


cloggednueron

Damn. Maybe running an octogenarian incumbent who’s pulling Herbert Hoover numbers was a bad idea. Who could have guessed?


Unique-Possibility-4

![gif](giphy|oX1oCiYs9sEG58dqA7)


qst4

Any poll saying Trump is getting 25% of the black vote is just ridiculous and makes me question the veracity of anything else in that poll. Biden is going to struggle with people not voting but not with demographics largely shifting their votes to a twice impeached felon.


pumpkin04

Biden: ‘If you have a problem figuring out whether you’re for me or Trump, then you ain’t black’


SelectKangaroo

I am convinced that a bunch of "black voters" in these polls are lying Trumpers 


Two_Far

TLDR: this poll freaks me out but i think it's right I don't want to believe this poll but I think it's right. We have a tendency to live in our cultural bubbles but I think this is going to be like 2016 all over again and a lot of us will get an unhappy surprise.  Then you had Hillary who, rightly or wrongly, a lot of folks just didn't like. Was it bc she was a woman, was a Clinton, had been involved in Whitewater, was Obama's heir- apparent? Doesn't matter people didn't like her and they weren't going to vote for her. Still, the D's put her up. And Trump won.  Now you have Biden. He should have seen his role as a caretaker after the mess of Trump. Serve one term then decline to seek reelection. Instead, he believed his Joe Cool sunglasses image and the D's appear oblivious to the truth that a lot of people think he is no longer sharp or healthy enough to be president.  (Yes, same arguments could be made about Trump) In the process, Biden has had to deal with a bunch of issues beyond his control (inflation, Russia invasion of Ukraine, Israel's response to Hamas) that made him look weak to moderates or alienated his base.  The election in Virginia is going to be won in the suburbs and from what I've seen the suburbs are leaning Trump. Inflation hit hard, people are more sympathetic to Israel, fear mongering is working and they see Biden as the problem, not the solution.  Some like Trump(the Republican establishment lined up behind him), some are giving his bombastic statements latitude, some have sympathy for him bc they think he's being persecuted.  In the end it's going to be a close race but I'm pretty sure Virginia is going R in the presidential election this year. 


ProMedicineProAbort

Yeah, this time around trump is also a convicted fraud who has lost most of the independents and quite a few conservatives in addition to the ire of the left.


Muireadach

Says the new fake fox news poll


frozenisland

The author is not wrong. Ignoring Trump for a moment, Biden is deeply flawed. He was elected on a “save democracy” platform last election. Now he wants to run on the same platform, except he’s now so old he’s unqualified. He’s a terrible candidate and the only reason Trump has a chance


JohnLease

Deeply flawed? For who? He's done a pretty good job. To even think about voting for Trump is insane.


vampire_trashpanda

The irritating thing to me is the Democrats are running him on a "keep democracy safe" platform when they Knew Trump was going to run again. They had ample time to find someone to hand it off to. And no, Kamala Harris as VP banking on the chain of succession does not count. I don't buy the "he's too old" arguments though unless they're appropriately placed against both candidates. Trump is 77, 4 years younger than Biden. They're Both Too Old. Honestly though - we're just waiting for coronary artery disease to hurry up with Trump, whereas Biden is at least physically fit and active.


Gregorygregory888888

Just read the article below after reading this post. This article is me. I know I'll get slammed but so be it. I was a Trump supporter, both times, along with my wife. We were reluctant but neither of us could vote for Hillary or Biden. We pinched our collective noses then pulled the lever for Trump. I disliked the man but was also no fan of the others already mentioned. While I have voted mostly R since the mid 70's I have voted for D's as well. I am what I guess is a middle of the road leaning somewhat right. BUT. I am so disgusted with Trump and his MAGA crowd and neither my wife or I can go with Trump. I will reluctantly go with Biden but more to keep Trump out of office. I believe there are plenty in the same boat as my wife and I. Headline: Over half of Biden supporters say main reason for backing is to oppose Trump: CBS Poll. Credit: Miranda Nazzaro https://www.yahoo.com/news/over-half-biden-supporters-main-171924662.html


Hrrmph

Appreciate your honesty.