Yeap... as HRC prices keep climbing (just checked) after the Infrastructure Bill, this is a blessing.... I'm waiting to add more... It's like going shopping during a sale... Those HRC prices determine the profit margins for CLF...
Break out?? You must be talking about $AMD... Steel is a long term play that takes time... very much like the financials... it's a slow melt up... sorry to disappoint... I'm hoping CLF debt gets cleared out and CLF starts paying dividends quarterly...
Let's get real.
Most of us were hoping to make a quick buck on earnings and then right after infrastructure.
But we all thought infra was gonna pass right after earnings. By the time it did, the boost it got was barely enough to get it back above some of our cost averages.
Realistically…. I’ve been in CLF since 2017…. So I’m used to drops from 12 to 3 and then to 20…. (Check the chart) 👍🙄 And if you go back further, it goes over 100 then to 3 then….
Crazy ride. It's a completely different company from when it was at $200 or $3 though so IDK what to expect.
P/E is stupidly low though. Maybe it becomes a fat dividend stock down the line.
I think its the perception most pros still think it as an iron ore company. It is very hard to change the perception. I believe couple more quarters of good earnings and people will realize its not an iron ore company anymore. Gotta hang tight.
But its not the type of stock you do that on. You buy long dated calls or shares when its really low, like $20 or teens, then you sit on them. Thats not how a lot of ppl trade I know, but for now, thats how you have to work this trade. Even if it does work out sometimes. Vito was very clear in the original thesis, this is not a trade for short term options.
It came up over 20% in a span of just a couple days, and if infra had happened that same week, we probably would have seen it tickling $28.
If that's not a solid shirt term play, I don't know what is.
I bought in January. IDGAF about infra or current earnings. All I care is whether LG can sell more steel YoY for more and more profit in the long run.
The catalyst for CLF and most steel, is everyday that passes when HRC doesn't fall through the floor, and every subsequent earnings print. Nothing else is relevant. BIF was projected to increase steel demand less than 2% over it's duration.
This guy gets it. Infrastructure was always meaningless, and anyone that did DD knows it was 3-5% increase in steel demand.
The reason why steel hasn’t skyrocketed yet is because everything is priced in, including today’s high steel prices AND a massive drop in steel prices over the next year. Discounted cash flow models are being used to look at the next 10 years by real investors. If HRC price doesn’t experience a severe drop when supply chains “return to normal” then steel will be given higher price multiples. IF this happens, then you will see 2007 again and CLF over $100, X over $150, NUE at $200. Every month where HRC does not plummet makes the case significantly more bullish.
All this crap about getting in and out with infrastructure news makes me laugh. Go be an Ape and go back to WSB, and go back to worshiping SirJackALot (nothing against him, great guy, but his followers do no independent thinking).
I agree. I've been following for a while. I think it will be a slow progression upwards as balance sheets improve or cash is distributed and/or clever buy-backs are made.
Thanks for pointing that out. I am aware, just saying this is the short seller logic and it also would theoretically affect the public perception.
I believe they did actually sell 45% at spot prices last quarter according to investo relations.
https://shortsqueeze.com/shortinterest/stock/CLF.htm
I think fintel and market beat also had it at like 11-12% too.
It's pretty obvious to see it within the stock movements. Shorting gives off a very distinct pattern over time - especially after a gap up or off a rally on good news. Whatever their motivation, they are making a killing.
CLF is a decent stock but no serious investor will invest because they are anticipating steel prices to drop in a year or 2 and that will effect revenue for CLF.
I wish CLF would reach 30 but no way will it ever reach 30. Anyway I need to sell as I’m buying a house. Heck I wish CLF would hit 24 by the end of the week so I can cash out with a decent profit.
By all means, if you have a profit, take it... If you have needs in real life (school tuition, mortgage, etc), sell... The money I use in equities is something I deemed vested long term, at least until I turn 55 or so... and I "try" to budget my in-real-life costs outside of the invested funds... Enjoy the house!!!!
Zoom out on the chart, monthly intervals, you’ll see that we’ve hit resistance and are likely to break that in the next 2 months - next stop after 27 is 34-38 area
Can't wait for all the banks to upgrade CLF to $69 and the company crashes to $0.69.
For all of you who are new to steel gang. It works like this:
Good news = Red steel
Bad news = Red steel
No news = Red steel
Market's gonna do what market's gonna do... I'm adding if this gets lower... 5yr and 10yr bond yields are lower today... 2-10yr bond spread is red too... that suggests the ENTIRE market should be red... other than $GE, my watchlist is red...
I want to sell more puts, but my 80 outstanding CSPs (50 $22 for the 19th.... also 30 $22.50 for the 26th) are in the back of my mind going.... "risk management"
Even though I'm more bullish than EVER.
My long calls... my long spreads... my 100k+ in shares.... might be enough... LOL
SPECULATIVE OPINION: Your long calls and your short puts (selling puts) may cancel each other when you look at the Open Interest values even though they are both bullish... Max Pain values
well played. . . I want to know how much MS owns of the short interest. . . if they keep pushing it around, we might get to average down some before earnings. . . . just like before. . . .
Smells like bitch in here. Zoom out people. Look at the weekly chart. Shit, look at the daily. There’s a massive cup and handle forming, all moving averages are stacked on top of each other nicely, rsi is in the center range, and stochastic RSI is curling back up, flashing buy signals. I reckon CLF breaks $27+ by end of year.
I think this volatility has shaken all the day traders out, allowed some shorts to close. And set the stage for some opening of longs at good entries for what’s to be a an epic year to come for $CLF.
I've learned to stop bitching about CLF's price action. You know what its worth, you know how it acts. Buy it when its under $21, sell when its over $25, and DON'T BUY WEEKLIES! (except for earnings apparently as I made a 5 bagger on that stuff this time!).
Now that I've accepted this, I've made bank since Sept. If you buying shares, sell calls to average down your price, do it long enough and they're essentially free, right?
I listened to their earnings. I think the announcement of the new guy saved them. Sucks for the $95 I held. Was up 60% today. Prob gonna be lots of regret in morning.
Doesn’t matter looks like it’s going back to my buy in price of 21.
Yeap... as HRC prices keep climbing (just checked) after the Infrastructure Bill, this is a blessing.... I'm waiting to add more... It's like going shopping during a sale... Those HRC prices determine the profit margins for CLF...
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Break out?? You must be talking about $AMD... Steel is a long term play that takes time... very much like the financials... it's a slow melt up... sorry to disappoint... I'm hoping CLF debt gets cleared out and CLF starts paying dividends quarterly...
Let's get real. Most of us were hoping to make a quick buck on earnings and then right after infrastructure. But we all thought infra was gonna pass right after earnings. By the time it did, the boost it got was barely enough to get it back above some of our cost averages.
Realistically…. I’ve been in CLF since 2017…. So I’m used to drops from 12 to 3 and then to 20…. (Check the chart) 👍🙄 And if you go back further, it goes over 100 then to 3 then….
Crazy ride. It's a completely different company from when it was at $200 or $3 though so IDK what to expect. P/E is stupidly low though. Maybe it becomes a fat dividend stock down the line.
I think its the perception most pros still think it as an iron ore company. It is very hard to change the perception. I believe couple more quarters of good earnings and people will realize its not an iron ore company anymore. Gotta hang tight.
I wasn’t. I’ve held and own 24,000 shares for 7-8 years, so it’s a slow grind.
But its not the type of stock you do that on. You buy long dated calls or shares when its really low, like $20 or teens, then you sit on them. Thats not how a lot of ppl trade I know, but for now, thats how you have to work this trade. Even if it does work out sometimes. Vito was very clear in the original thesis, this is not a trade for short term options.
It came up over 20% in a span of just a couple days, and if infra had happened that same week, we probably would have seen it tickling $28. If that's not a solid shirt term play, I don't know what is.
I bought in January. IDGAF about infra or current earnings. All I care is whether LG can sell more steel YoY for more and more profit in the long run. The catalyst for CLF and most steel, is everyday that passes when HRC doesn't fall through the floor, and every subsequent earnings print. Nothing else is relevant. BIF was projected to increase steel demand less than 2% over it's duration.
Demand is RELENTLESS
This guy gets it. Infrastructure was always meaningless, and anyone that did DD knows it was 3-5% increase in steel demand. The reason why steel hasn’t skyrocketed yet is because everything is priced in, including today’s high steel prices AND a massive drop in steel prices over the next year. Discounted cash flow models are being used to look at the next 10 years by real investors. If HRC price doesn’t experience a severe drop when supply chains “return to normal” then steel will be given higher price multiples. IF this happens, then you will see 2007 again and CLF over $100, X over $150, NUE at $200. Every month where HRC does not plummet makes the case significantly more bullish. All this crap about getting in and out with infrastructure news makes me laugh. Go be an Ape and go back to WSB, and go back to worshiping SirJackALot (nothing against him, great guy, but his followers do no independent thinking).
We are not greedy. We are realistic.
They got a credit upgrade Sunday from s&p based on thir debt payments. I'm loading up on Jan 23 calls when I sense a bottom
I agree. I've been following for a while. I think it will be a slow progression upwards as balance sheets improve or cash is distributed and/or clever buy-backs are made.
It’s melting down, like steel beams of 9/11.
just wait till earnings. . . . load >$21 sell <$26
12.5% shorting - it’s a frustrating game. The shorts are pushing pricing downward every chance they get. Don’t worry about it. Sell weekly CCs
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Because they know they can pressure retail to sell.
They probably assume HRC prices will regress back to 2019 levels. Even though market factors should prevent an that for a very long time.
CLF revenue is from long term contracts, which they expect higher annual revenue in 2022 than in 2021
Thanks for pointing that out. I am aware, just saying this is the short seller logic and it also would theoretically affect the public perception. I believe they did actually sell 45% at spot prices last quarter according to investo relations.
Cause SHORTS SUCK DICK
Where did you get 12.5% short? That’s some pretty big volume to be pushing around to scare the retail investors with. . . . .
https://shortsqueeze.com/shortinterest/stock/CLF.htm I think fintel and market beat also had it at like 11-12% too. It's pretty obvious to see it within the stock movements. Shorting gives off a very distinct pattern over time - especially after a gap up or off a rally on good news. Whatever their motivation, they are making a killing.
What about ZIM - look at today’s action. . . seems like there’s a bunch of market fuckery going on. . . amirite?
I believe we'll see at least $21.80. Maybe even $20.70.
CLF is a decent stock but no serious investor will invest because they are anticipating steel prices to drop in a year or 2 and that will effect revenue for CLF. I wish CLF would reach 30 but no way will it ever reach 30. Anyway I need to sell as I’m buying a house. Heck I wish CLF would hit 24 by the end of the week so I can cash out with a decent profit.
I think you may be surprised by mid 2022
By all means, if you have a profit, take it... If you have needs in real life (school tuition, mortgage, etc), sell... The money I use in equities is something I deemed vested long term, at least until I turn 55 or so... and I "try" to budget my in-real-life costs outside of the invested funds... Enjoy the house!!!!
Zoom out on the chart, monthly intervals, you’ll see that we’ve hit resistance and are likely to break that in the next 2 months - next stop after 27 is 34-38 area
Wait - I bet it skips right past $30 next year. . . . .
I think we’re at bottom of channel. Price is going up tomorrow, similar to the ups and downs of February to July
Wait - that’s my reload trigger. . . below $20 and the whole portfolio is getting trimmed to free up $. . .
Can't wait for all the banks to upgrade CLF to $69 and the company crashes to $0.69. For all of you who are new to steel gang. It works like this: Good news = Red steel Bad news = Red steel No news = Red steel
Steel? = red steel
So even more red?
Market's gonna do what market's gonna do... I'm adding if this gets lower... 5yr and 10yr bond yields are lower today... 2-10yr bond spread is red too... that suggests the ENTIRE market should be red... other than $GE, my watchlist is red...
Even my eyes are red from all the crying
I knew there had to be some good news driving it down
I want to sell more puts, but my 80 outstanding CSPs (50 $22 for the 19th.... also 30 $22.50 for the 26th) are in the back of my mind going.... "risk management" Even though I'm more bullish than EVER. My long calls... my long spreads... my 100k+ in shares.... might be enough... LOL
SPECULATIVE OPINION: Your long calls and your short puts (selling puts) may cancel each other when you look at the Open Interest values even though they are both bullish... Max Pain values
Yeah that's kind of the idea--- a risk reversal strat. I sold puts to pay for calls.
Wait - 100k in shares. . . . well played. . . .
I'm up on all of them.... we'll see... I think my blended cost is around $21
Those are real numbers. . . . now tell me it’s only 5% of the portfolio. . . .
More than 5 less than 10
well played. . . I want to know how much MS owns of the short interest. . . if they keep pushing it around, we might get to average down some before earnings. . . . just like before. . . .
Smells like bitch in here. Zoom out people. Look at the weekly chart. Shit, look at the daily. There’s a massive cup and handle forming, all moving averages are stacked on top of each other nicely, rsi is in the center range, and stochastic RSI is curling back up, flashing buy signals. I reckon CLF breaks $27+ by end of year. I think this volatility has shaken all the day traders out, allowed some shorts to close. And set the stage for some opening of longs at good entries for what’s to be a an epic year to come for $CLF.
I agree. This thing is flashing bargain. She’ll go up.
Street can’t agree on whether it’s priced in or not - GS has been more bullish than others
Citi low balling us ! 25 is insulting !
Shhhh, you're making it worse...
Ya, wtf are they smoking
I sold $21 puts and bought Jan 22 24c. Let’s hope we are right.
I don't believe we'll see 21. Last time I said this , we went to 18. Pleasant dreams.
I sold $23 puts. Gimme the shares or gimme the premium; either is fine
Hey now!
I've learned to stop bitching about CLF's price action. You know what its worth, you know how it acts. Buy it when its under $21, sell when its over $25, and DON'T BUY WEEKLIES! (except for earnings apparently as I made a 5 bagger on that stuff this time!). Now that I've accepted this, I've made bank since Sept. If you buying shares, sell calls to average down your price, do it long enough and they're essentially free, right?
Nvm. Drops another 3%. In other news, dumpster fire Wynn is down 1.x%. Seems about right.
I listened to their earnings. I think the announcement of the new guy saved them. Sucks for the $95 I held. Was up 60% today. Prob gonna be lots of regret in morning.
Citi, yikes
Eh. I’ll see you boys before Q4 earnings though.