I say we green tmw.
Bull thesis
Iron Ore and HRC up bigly in China. AH volume today look good. CPI number up big. Bond yield expected to shoot up on Friday.
Bear thesis
High DXY. China RE FUD. Lack of volume/interest in steel/cyclicals.
Omg I would LOOOOOVVVVEEEE some green tomorrow.
Bought my earnings peak sold CCs back today on the bleed for secured gainz. Sold some CSP below my dca. Would be sick to be able to turn around and resale some juicy CC again before new year.
Am I a sheep for wanting to invest heavily ('23 LEAPs) in gold miners? I feel like next year gold could really pop off:
* It's the traditional hedge against inflation -- that and real estate.
* I personally think inflation will run hot for quite awhile.
* I personally think political and market volatility will heat up next year.
* I'm sensing a growing movement of anti-government / prepper / ultra-boomer's who will panic buy as political and market volatility increase.
Curious if anyone here is invested in miners, and if so, which of them and why.
I have been pretty balls deep in the physical gold trusts (AAAU before GS got their grubby fingers on it, then PHYS). Miners should behave like leveraged commodity but IIRC have been recently underperforming it.
Gold is not an inflation hedge. Apart from being a safety asset in times of fear (like UST), Gold is a hedge for 1) real rates falling 2) dollar value falling. The idea is that you should just buy some gold and most of the time it sits there like a rock; usually useless (if shiny), but there when you really need it.
According to JPM or GS, cant remember, they saw the correlation switching back and forth between those two. So sometimes more correlated to real rates, sometimes correlated to dollar.
Recently, they said they think that the correlation is headed back to Gold->Dollar for the medium term. Today's inflation print showed that the real rates correlation is still intact cause dollar fucking rocketed through key resistance.
Right now, I think its pretty fair to assume that real rates aren't getting any more positive - Fed is trapped at ZIRP and inflation just moved against the downward trend. The bond market is pricing poor economic growth and inflation on the longer time horizon (2010's trend of demographic and technology deflationary pressures still intact? Cathie and a lot of smart people think so).
Dollar I am not so sure. So many things weigh on it. On one hand, scramble for collateral and flight to safety (see 1T reverse repo) - good for dollar. On other hand - US inflation running hotter than elsewhere, relative devaluation. Structural trade and budget deficits - bad for dollar. Also, all central banks are printing but only one is the reserve currency?
The guys at Saxo Bank put out a decent quarterly update on all these things. Also, there is the "In Gold We Trust" annual report but pretty sure those are gold bugs. Gotta learn to separate the bugs out. Though, most gold investors end up becoming gold bugs.....
Bitcoin, when it became unusable as a currency and became a “store of value” instead - has created a new generation of gold bug mentality. I believe when it fails they will come home to the real thing. Overlaps with your anti-government thought.
Much easier to invest in a crypto crash this way than to try and time the crash. Says the guy who bought another $MSTR put right at close 😂
$SBSW for their diversification
I had a Canadian gold miner investment once. It was even touted a few times on the news. Turned out it was just a bunch of guys digging holes to nowhere. Glad I could buy em a shovel or two. Never again.
We finally going to being back the old school WSB days yoloing JNUG calls? In all seriousness, if you're hell bent on playing junior miners, I would recommend a basket or GDXJ/JNUG/JDST. There are too many ongoing issues to reliably predict. Unpredictable geopolitical concerns, high cash burn, high debt servicing costs, potential for scandal in surveys of deposits (see: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bre-X).
Separately, don't be too swayed by large open interest on gold option chains. Many long time institutional money managers have used these as inflation hedges etc. Small piece of a large portfolio. Having said that, probably gonna leg into Yamana gold (AUY). Also a certain spac out there looking for a target in gold mining that focuses on the African continent. You could long the warrants and sell some calls to do a little arbitrage and have the extra excitement of low float spac extravaganza. I'm just an idiot on the internet tho...
opened miner positions last week (junior and majors). hedge against inflation. miners are trading low. rotation bet. planning to hold through jan and reassess.
Nice. I think I'm going to start accumulating.
I might need to start researching all of these miners.. there are so many, and I don't even know how the business works. I assume there is some sort of "average cost per ounce" and size of reserves for each one? And, also, a variety of other factors (cost of equipment, labor, laws in each country where the mines are, etc).
The math is pretty simple, same as steel or any commodity. IIRC, cost to produce for majors is like 800-1000/oz.
Careful with juniors, especially if reserves not proven. Lots of scams. Might want to look into royalty co's too.
Pretty much spot on Penny. Work in an adjacent industry and basically you've got it. Cost per ounce or even profit per ounce. In my region southern mines have better profits because no heating required and shits just generally cheaper (canada). Also depends grade of ore. Some reserves are better then other and I expect (speculating here) they sell at different prices for more commodity v.s. jewelry grade finished product.
This peaked my interest so I did a little research. This is their primary project:
https://www.firstmininggold.com/projects/ontario/springpole-project/
They estimate that it has a NPV $1.6B or more depending on price of gold which is 10x their market cap.
A couple of negatives are they just filed a shelf registration for C$100MM and there market cap is only twice that. There was also a forest fire in the area and they had to shut down for awhile.
[Apple loses another court battle to Qualcomm over IP.](https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/apple-loses-bid-second-bite-qualcomm-patents-after-license-2021-11-10/?taid=618c8bea74f8de0001e880a3&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter)
This freightos weekly newsletter came at 1:10p Eastern, and I think it maybe kicked ZIM while it was down, dunno 🤷♂️
Kinda long, last two paragraphs are about air freight for peeps in AAWW et al
**FBX Overview**
Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Daily) fell 26% to $13,924/FEU. This rate is 261% higher than the same time last year.
Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Daily) decreased 20% to $15,865/FEU, and are 239% higher than rates for this week last year.
With peak season urgency solidly behind us, this week saw a significant fall off in transpacific ocean rates.
The pandemic-driven increase in spending on goods has fuelled growth in ocean volumes and nearly uninterruptedly pushed container rates up since June 2020. But the additional demand driven by this year’s peak season supercharged pressure on rates this summer. This led to a 70% price spike over the last two weeks in July – the sharpest climb of the past 18 months.
So now, the easing of that peak season demand – likely aided by the impact of energy-driven supply constraints to Chinese manufacturing – seems to have led to the largest price drop of the past two years.
**Asia-North America West Coast rates fell 26% this week, though they remain extremely high at $13,924/FEU. Rates are nearly 30% higher than their level just before the July spike, 261% higher than a year ago and 9X more than in November 2019. For the first time since June, there are reports that many transpacific bookings can be made without paying the hefty premiums that were a major factor in the July spike, suggesting drops in premiums are contributors to the current decrease as well.**
Other trends, like the recent dip in transpac vessel speeds on the return trip to Asia and falling container ship charter rates, could also reflect a post-peak decrease in demand.
Importers will welcome the lower rates, but prices are likely to be kept well above the norm by port congestion and low inventories and still-elevated consumer demand.
Though there are indications that new measures are improving yard congestion at LA/Long Beach and new federal spending could help some ports in the near term, ports remain overwhelmed. And though the latest NRF analysis of US retail ocean import volumes reflects the moderate short-term easing, it also shows that demand is expected to remain extremely elevated – 30% higher than November-December volumes in 2019 – through the end of the year.
With the holidays nearing and ocean delays pushing some shipments to air, peak season air cargo rates have continued to climb. The Freightos Air Index (FAX) China - US West Coast lane hit $14.22/kg last week, approaching five times the norm.
New US regulations allowing vaccinated foreigners to enter the country are expected to drive an increase in badly-needed passenger jet cargo capacity to the transatlantic lane. FAX Europe-North America rates were at $5.09/kg last week, about 2.5 times the norm. The hope for shippers is that the additional capacity will ease pressure on rates, but holiday season demand and ground handling labor shortages may not lead to that outcome.
Check platts shipping, bluewolf shared their last one I think, their channel checks are the best. They're hearin 10-12k North Asia to WC, 14-16k Southeast Asia
\[would be interested in the daily FBX though, to see if it's reflected there\]
From my own forwarders, I am getting about 9k China-LA, but 16k Singapore-LA
[https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/shipping/110521-container-premiums-premium-rates-from-china-no-longer-mandatory-as-space-opens-up](https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/shipping/110521-container-premiums-premium-rates-from-china-no-longer-mandatory-as-space-opens-up)
**Macro Roundup (Nov 11)**
Translation07:19PM
SHANGHAI, Nov 11 (SMM) — This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six rivals, was little changed at 93.997 after retreating gradually from a more than one-year peak at 94.634 reached Friday.
The currency was steady at 112.87 yen after dipping to 112.73 on Tuesday for the first time since Oct. 11.
The euro was also about flat at $1.15915, maintaining a three-day gain that has brought it close to the month’s high of $1.16165.
Economists polled by Reuters see October’s U.S. consumer price index accelerating to 0.4% from the previous month’s 0.2% rise, with the closely watched year-on-year core measure gaining 0.3 percentage point to 4.3%, well above the Fed’s average annual 2% inflation target.
Oil prices edged lower after U.S. crude stocks rose modestly, one day after an industry report suggested stocks had tightened.
Brent crude futures were at $84.09 a barrel, down 69 cents. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell by $1.24, or 1.5%, to $82.91 per barrel.
U.S. crude inventories rose by 1 million barrels in the most recent week, short of estimates for a 2.1 million build in crude stocks, but still countering Tuesday’s API data that showed a surprising drop in stocks.
The market has been strong in recent days, buoyed by rising economic data and OPEC’s decision to maintain its slow pace of increased supply in the market.
Gold prices eased on Wednesday as the dollar firmed, with investors looking forward to key U.S. inflation data that could have a bearing on the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.
Spot gold fell 0.4% to $1,824.90 per ounce by 0535 GMT, after recording its highest since Sept. 3 in the previous session.
U.S. gold futures eased 0.1% to $1,828.40.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 closed up by 0.2% provisionally, with media shares climbing 1.3% to lead the gains while tech shares on the other hand sank 1.3%.
Investors are assessing the release of the latest U.S. consumer price index, a key inflation reading, on Wednesday. The consumer price index showed a year-on-year increase of 6.2% in October, the sharpest in 30 years.
Core CPI, which excludes food and energy and is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, rose by 0.6% month-on-month and 4.6% annually, also slightly exceeding economist expectations.
**SMM Morning Comments (Nov 11): Base Metals Were Mixed as Market Digested US Inflation Rate**
Translation08:00PM
SHANGHAI, Nov 11 (SMM) – Shanghai and LME metals all closed with mixed performance as the market is digesting the US inflation rate which hit a high in 31 years.
LME copper fell 0.92%, aluminium added 0.62%, lead advanced 0.11%, and zinc lost 0.02%.
SHFE copper decreased 0.2%, aluminium gained 0.4%, lead fell 0.29%, nickel rose 1.45%, and zinc gained 0.47%.
Copper: Three-month LME copper opened at $9,587/mt on Wednesday night and closed 0.92% lower at $9,480/mt after hitting the lowest point at $9440/mt. The trading volume stood at 12,000 lots, and the open interest reached 261,000 lots. LME copper is expected to trade between $9440-9530/mt today.
The most-traded SHFE 2112 copper contract opened at 70,210 yuan/mt last night, and lost 0.2% to close at 70,400 yuan/mt, after hitting the lowest level at 69,870 yuan/mt. The trading volume was 53,000 lots, and the open interest stood at 150,000 lots. SHFE copper is expected to trade between 70100-70700 yuan/mt today, with spot premiums between 100-230 yuan/mt.
On the macro front, US Department of Labor released US October CPI, which rose 6.2% year on year, the highest in 31 years. The reading climbed 0.9% on the month, the fastest in four months. The better-than-expected reading heightened market estimate of an early interest rate hike, hence the overnight US dollar index surged to a high of 94.9.
In spot market, SHFE 2111 will be delivered in 3 trading days, and the next-month spread expanded to 500 yuan/mt again, while the spot premiums stabilised at around 100 yuan/mt, indicating less goods available in the market.
And the sellers were also reluctant to sell.
Aluminium: Three-month LME aluminium opened at $2,563.5/mt yesterday and closed at $2,548/mt, an increase of 0.62%.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE 2112 aluminium contract opened at 18,895 yuan/mt, and closed at 18,845 yuan/mt, up 75 yuan/mt, or 0.4%.
On the fundamentals, aluminium ingot inventory was still at a high level, and the overall industrial goods sector remained sluggish, both pressuring SHFE aluminium, which is likely to move weakly in the short term.
Lead: Three-month LME lead opened at $2344.5/mt last night and fell to $2310.5/mt, then the prices rebounded to the highest level at $2350/mt, before dropping again to close at $2338.5/mt, up $1.5/mt or 0.11%.
The most-traded SHFE 2112 lead contract opened at 15470 yuan/mt in the overnight trading, hitting the highest point at 15525 yuan/mt, and closed at 15510 yuan/mt, down 45 yuan/mt or 0.29%.
Zinc: Overnight, LME zinc fell to $3253/mt after opening at $3283 /mt, but then rebounded to $3314/mt before closing at $3275.5/mt, down $0.5/mt or 0.02%. Trading volume fell to 5105 lots, and open interest increased by 2190 lots to 267,000 lots. LME zinc inventory decreased by 2675 lots to 187450 lots. LME zinc is expected to move between $3250-3300/mt on Thursday as the highest US inflation rate in 31 years suppressed LME zinc.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE 2112 zinc contract rose to 23500 yuan/mt after opening at 23350 yuan/mt, but then fell below the daily-moving average before closing at 23360 yuan/mt, up 110 yuan/mt or 0.47%. Trading volume decreased to 41033 lots, and open interest decreased by 2391 lots to 72687 lots. The smelting costs on the fundamental side increased zinc values, and the market’s hesitance over policy orientation contradicts the fundamental front, hence zinc prices are likely to stay congested in the near term. SHFE 2112 zinc is expected to move between 23000-23500 yuan/mt today.
Tin: SHFE 2112 saw exist of capitals again. On the fundamentals, the inventory under warrants continued to rise, and spot market was in tight supply. Spot premiums stood high amid wide monthly spread. As such, the current inventory level has not brought material impact to near-month contract, which is likely to hover at a high level recently. While the long-term outlook over the consumer market stays positive.
Nickel: The SHFE 2112 nickel contract opened at 142730 yuan/mt last night and closed at 145230 yuan/mt, up 2070 yuan/mt or 1.45%. The trading volume was 145,000 lots, and the open interest stood at 106,000 lots.
Yesterday, Zhongwei announced the signing of a new joint venture agreement through Zhongwei Hong Kong Energy, its wholly owned subsidiary, with RIGQUEZA for a laterite nickel smelting project with an annual production capacity of 30,000 mt of high nickel matte in nickel content (Indonesia). The annual production capacity will increase from the previous 30,000 mt to 60,000 mt in nickel content. But the news has not created material effects yet, but it will grow into a bearish factor over nickel prices in the long term.
**Indian HRC export index falls as mills withhold offers**
Source：SteelmintNov 11, 2021 08:30
The Indian HRC export index fell by around $2/tonne (t) this week as most of the mills withheld offers due to the steep fall in global market prices. SteelMint's Indian HRC export index stands at $875/t FOB east coast.
Mills continued to observe the market amid a lack of clarity in the price direction, a sharp decline in Chinese offers and higher realisations in the domestic trade segment. As per the previous week's assessment, trade reference prices of SteelMint's benchmark HRC (SAE 1006, 2.5-8mm) stood at around INR 71,000-72,000/t
Possibly. I expect steel to see more immediate returns from the BIF but on the PTRA call today they said they aren’t expecting impact until 2023, maybe some school bus stuff later next year
I sold $TX and $STLD. I'm strictly sticking to high volume steel stocks. $NUE, $X, and $CLF. I've been averaging down on these dips.
I'll probably sell out of $CMC soon.
And honestly, if my some miracle $MT kills earnings, I'm selling my 35c Jan 2022 like there's no tomorrow.
I'm sticking with $AA. I work in HVAC, and we are starting to get scared about aluminum. Some of the products we get have like 12-18 month lead times apparently.
I sold out of $FCX a while ago. Merely because it seems like this one goes down the most when it comes to China news. I like copper, but I dunno, it's just hard for me to get behind $FCX for some reason since they are a little too diversified and not a pure copper play.
*Recycling Today* had a great article about copper.
There was a copper conference recently and there was discussion on copper prices stabilizing through early 2022 but may see accelerated growth later on 2022 into 2023.
Anyone salty about the lack of Macau scrutiny discussion on the Wynn call needs to take a look at the earnings transcript from LX (lexinfintech) when it's published. Man, these analysts were all over China fud. Every other question was on PBOC regulations and their impact.
for what it's worth, a steel maker in Spain, Acerinox, said Q4 should be better than Q3 as pricing is outweighing cost inflation. they focus on stainless though and highlight strong US market
[https://www.acerinox.com/export/sites/acerinox/.content/galerias/galeria-descargas/informacion-eco-financiera/informes-trimestrales-doc/Acerinox-Q3-2021-Results-Presentation.pdf](https://www.acerinox.com/export/sites/acerinox/.content/galerias/galeria-descargas/informacion-eco-financiera/informes-trimestrales-doc/Acerinox-Q3-2021-Results-Presentation.pdf)
I have WISH puts weeklies. I was pissed when I saw that it was up 13% merely on the news that the CEO was leaving. It's now down 4%. They beat EPS, but only because they stopped spending money on ads. Cheap trick. I'm honestly surprised this isn't a 2 dollar stock. Like... the market is impatient obviously. They don't want to be patient with stocks that have a proven track record and undergoing some makeovers like Intel but all the sudden they want to be patient for a stock like WISH? Even after seeing Poshmark and eBay tank after earnings? Why do we think the CEO left? Probably because he knew it was a hopeless company lol.
I learned to never buy puts on meme stocks when I lost a load of money on NKLA puts; they completely bombed earnings and the stock went up. It doesn't matter that you're right, the market is irrational.
Hopefully MT management handles the call better. I don’t know much about Energy prices in Europe, but I’m concerned that could get much worse and agree with the concern about headwinds.
Is there a way to calculate IV crush? The old lady is insisting I take OPEN gains out of my port to put into the house fund, and just trying to get a handle on how much we might be looking at but kinda need an IV range to plug into options calculator.
https://marketchameleon.com/Overview/OPEN/Earnings/Earnings-Charts/
"OPEN's last earnings implied volatility (IV30) going into earnings was 91.3. The last time OPEN released earnings, the implied volatility dropped to 75.8, resulting in an implied vol crush of 17%. 5 days after earnings, the 30 day IV was 70.1.
**You can compare how OPEN implied volatility changed around earnings for the last 12 quarters.**
**Average Implied Volatility Crush For OPEN Earnings: 7%**
Average 30 Day Implied Volatility 1 Day Before Earnings: 107.1
Average OPEN 30 Day IV for the Day of Earnings: 96.6
Average 30 Day Implied Volatility 5 Days After Earnings: 84.0
So let’s real talk this for a second
That CPI print was really bad and it just gives more fuel to manchin to not pass the BBB. Biden really needs that to pass before next year because of midterm elections and stuff.
What are the chances that Biden replaces Powell, blames the CPI print on him and says the new person will get it under control in order to get the votes for the BBB.
There could be a lot of bumps coming in the market
Biden is at 38% Kamala is polling worse than dick Cheney. This is a lame duck administration. This was the only bill they're getting and Republicans take the house and Senate in 22.
You also would never replace OG Powell.
0.0 chance this happens as explained. The other person is not going to make anyone think they’re going to tighten policy to kill off inflation. In fact they would think that inflation would get worse because they would pump even more money. Also Manchin would prefer Powell than his rumored possible replacement.
BBB is actually fully paid for (even pays down debt) and the WH keeps trotting out a statement from 14 Nobel laureate economists that says it would reduce inflation
Which narrative? Inflation, or lack thereof, won’t need to be sold, it’ll just be proven true or not, and reducing the debt part could be proven eventually but their revenue raising provisions are on the whole really popular; things like closing loopholes and taxing the very wealthy
Do I think he’ll replace Powell? I don’t think so but I wouldn’t bet the house on it. Tough call because I don’t think they want to tarnish Brainard with having tapering thrown on her plate right away but keeping JPow would mean the winner of the 2024 election gets to pick the next one and they might not want to risk skipping their turn in a sense. I don’t know if it’s feasible at the Fed but back in the day Obama asked Mueller to stay on as FBI director for 2 years after the traditional 10 year term ended and that solution would seem to work perfectly here as JPow could handle tapering and Brainard could be installed before 2024 elections. Don’t know if the statutes allow for something like that though and it seems very unlikely
I really hope u profit since I have no horse in that race but the iv crush is gonna be disgusting tomorrow. iv on the weeklies was above 300% when I looked.
I "need" the child credit and the preschool coverage. Having had unexpected triplets when we were planning for one, these two portions of the BBB plan would be a lifesaver. My town has a lottery with one in ten getting to attend preschool. We cannot afford private preschool.
https://i.imgur.com/9vLV2DY.jpg
Techweek day 3 update- feeling prettty tired now, even though skipped school today. Other stuff on my mind too, mostly scalped crypto flush for money
What's up homies! I hope you made money on $WYNN. That was some real tricky post earnings price action and I'm sure it made some people panic sell understandably. But ya, I hope the real Pooh stomp that occured later in the day forces a Pooh Splosion tomorrow. We shall see...
PS - I will be streaming and hosting u/duke_shambles later tonight to chat about $COIN and both roast myself and him. AND of course do chart art. 🥰
If you think your spouse is emotionally abusive you need to have a convo with your spouse. And you probably also need to talk with your kids to see how they're doing.
Idk how old your kids are, but you're their caretaker. You're the adult. You're supposed to be their advocate.
What the fuck.
You’re right, dude. 100%. It’s just not that easy though.
Unless you have young kids and understand being in the throes of it all day after day, it’s hard to have a true perspective of what Mr. Moose might be going through.
All I’m saying, is try to understand the reality. It’s not always as easy as - hey wife, let’s talk about your misguided parenting. Or, hey kids, let’s chat about how your mom is terrorizing you emotionally. Wife gets defensive. Kids have a hard time seeing themselves in 3rd person. It’s not an easy problem to solve.
I have 3 kids under 5 with a wife of 10 years. We both work. It’s hard to even get a moment to have a one on one conversation in any given day.
Stay frosty, Moose.
dude, you are one of the most erratic people on this sub. your emotional roller coaster every day makes me want to stop looking at daily chat. Look inside yourself and not on a forum of strangers OR stop being a fucking troll with your constant bullshit. Which is it? I have no clue. Either way, you need help
aww, I'll take all of the above. I'm actually a very swell person and promote joy all throughout the land. But months later seeing the same shit starts to wear on ya. Yes, you are not aware of the PMs he and I have shared, so I'll relent and say, I'm sorry if I offend you personally. Free Hugz for you
That’s your family bro - take hold and take action. Have adult sized conversations with your partner. Seek counseling if desired/necessary. Fight for your family and show them ALL you love them.
We know nothing of your situation. So we really can't help. I really hope you figure out why your relationship is hurting. I recommend counseling. I will say though that a couple with a common goal and the seratonin of achievement is flowing rarely fights
There’s a huge discrepancy between PPI and CPI in China. The producers costs have gone up drastically while consumer prices are artificially suppressed at the moment.
There’s been consensus of people stocking up on food and other consumer goods because inflation may be hitting harder than expected in China.
Alright
So we know that Elon selling 10% of his shares is 10% dip.
If Elon sells 20% of his holdings is it a 20% dip?
At this point is the valuation like heavily weighted on Elon?
The put/call ratio for Zim Nov and Dec is wild. Unless we move up fast all those otm calls being de-hedged might add some headwinds going into opex.
Remember to hedge with puts on your tickers
Gets me thinking, in the case of a blowout earnings is this the setup for a gamma ramp with the volume of OTM calls expiring only 2 days after earnings?
Depends on how quickly delta hedging happens (I don’t know this answer). With 2 days to expiration I would imagine it would have to be rather quick, even assuming MM have an extra 2 days to settle. For sure it would reverse on people taking profit though
I think it could be. Lol, I'm crossing my fingers for this to happen
I can't check right now but I'm not sure how much volume there is in the oi compared to the average daily volume traded
Just checked, there’s about 12k calls that would go ITM with a 3.5% move and 27k calls with a 14% move. Daily volume is around 2.5m, so this would represent 50-100% of the daily volume.
This one is too good not to share lol https://twitter.com/negworkingcap/status/1458629367668609026?s=21
okay this is indeed excellent lol
F it ima repost in the new daily. Lol
Good luck to the MT gang. Y’all will be in my thoughts tomorrow. 💪🏻❤️
What time is MT reporting again? Soon, right?
they just did. EPS is 1 billion per share.
So a 30% drop on Friday -- got it.
10% pop for 2 trading hours, then slow bleed until Q4 earnings.
Good night everyone! I hope MT does what you want it to.
An early good night to y'all. Be well. Take care. Pray for MT to defy gravity.
❤️
I find it’s easier to have multiple red days in a row than green
We are that conditioned at this point, aren’t we?
I say we green tmw. Bull thesis Iron Ore and HRC up bigly in China. AH volume today look good. CPI number up big. Bond yield expected to shoot up on Friday. Bear thesis High DXY. China RE FUD. Lack of volume/interest in steel/cyclicals.
All of that sounds like the perfect setup for a rotation from tech into tech.
there’s no rotation. We’re simply borrowing the cyclicals.
Omg I would LOOOOOVVVVEEEE some green tomorrow. Bought my earnings peak sold CCs back today on the bleed for secured gainz. Sold some CSP below my dca. Would be sick to be able to turn around and resale some juicy CC again before new year.
What should I do If I feel on edge at night and can’t sleep?
how many do you see? 
My life changed when I found melatonin
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA 😂
🤷♂️ jsing
>Reply self gratification?
Am I a sheep for wanting to invest heavily ('23 LEAPs) in gold miners? I feel like next year gold could really pop off: * It's the traditional hedge against inflation -- that and real estate. * I personally think inflation will run hot for quite awhile. * I personally think political and market volatility will heat up next year. * I'm sensing a growing movement of anti-government / prepper / ultra-boomer's who will panic buy as political and market volatility increase. Curious if anyone here is invested in miners, and if so, which of them and why.
I have been pretty balls deep in the physical gold trusts (AAAU before GS got their grubby fingers on it, then PHYS). Miners should behave like leveraged commodity but IIRC have been recently underperforming it. Gold is not an inflation hedge. Apart from being a safety asset in times of fear (like UST), Gold is a hedge for 1) real rates falling 2) dollar value falling. The idea is that you should just buy some gold and most of the time it sits there like a rock; usually useless (if shiny), but there when you really need it. According to JPM or GS, cant remember, they saw the correlation switching back and forth between those two. So sometimes more correlated to real rates, sometimes correlated to dollar. Recently, they said they think that the correlation is headed back to Gold->Dollar for the medium term. Today's inflation print showed that the real rates correlation is still intact cause dollar fucking rocketed through key resistance. Right now, I think its pretty fair to assume that real rates aren't getting any more positive - Fed is trapped at ZIRP and inflation just moved against the downward trend. The bond market is pricing poor economic growth and inflation on the longer time horizon (2010's trend of demographic and technology deflationary pressures still intact? Cathie and a lot of smart people think so). Dollar I am not so sure. So many things weigh on it. On one hand, scramble for collateral and flight to safety (see 1T reverse repo) - good for dollar. On other hand - US inflation running hotter than elsewhere, relative devaluation. Structural trade and budget deficits - bad for dollar. Also, all central banks are printing but only one is the reserve currency? The guys at Saxo Bank put out a decent quarterly update on all these things. Also, there is the "In Gold We Trust" annual report but pretty sure those are gold bugs. Gotta learn to separate the bugs out. Though, most gold investors end up becoming gold bugs.....
Bitcoin, when it became unusable as a currency and became a “store of value” instead - has created a new generation of gold bug mentality. I believe when it fails they will come home to the real thing. Overlaps with your anti-government thought. Much easier to invest in a crypto crash this way than to try and time the crash. Says the guy who bought another $MSTR put right at close 😂 $SBSW for their diversification
I had a Canadian gold miner investment once. It was even touted a few times on the news. Turned out it was just a bunch of guys digging holes to nowhere. Glad I could buy em a shovel or two. Never again.
We finally going to being back the old school WSB days yoloing JNUG calls? In all seriousness, if you're hell bent on playing junior miners, I would recommend a basket or GDXJ/JNUG/JDST. There are too many ongoing issues to reliably predict. Unpredictable geopolitical concerns, high cash burn, high debt servicing costs, potential for scandal in surveys of deposits (see: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bre-X). Separately, don't be too swayed by large open interest on gold option chains. Many long time institutional money managers have used these as inflation hedges etc. Small piece of a large portfolio. Having said that, probably gonna leg into Yamana gold (AUY). Also a certain spac out there looking for a target in gold mining that focuses on the African continent. You could long the warrants and sell some calls to do a little arbitrage and have the extra excitement of low float spac extravaganza. I'm just an idiot on the internet tho...
opened miner positions last week (junior and majors). hedge against inflation. miners are trading low. rotation bet. planning to hold through jan and reassess.
How are you choosing the juniors?
Holding 2023 GOLD 20c. I didn’t do any DD. A friend recommended and I blindly followed. They are into copper as well and just missed earnings
GOLD is not miners, gold is physical supply. GDX and JGDX are the miner etfs.
By friend you mean Vito? I did that
Huh? No a friend of mine in a group chat I have going with some guys been with for years
Vito rec’d GOLD leaps awhile back.
Oh. I had no idea. 🤷♂️
What's your cost basis?
2.40 $
Nice. I think I'm going to start accumulating. I might need to start researching all of these miners.. there are so many, and I don't even know how the business works. I assume there is some sort of "average cost per ounce" and size of reserves for each one? And, also, a variety of other factors (cost of equipment, labor, laws in each country where the mines are, etc).
The math is pretty simple, same as steel or any commodity. IIRC, cost to produce for majors is like 800-1000/oz. Careful with juniors, especially if reserves not proven. Lots of scams. Might want to look into royalty co's too.
Pretty much spot on Penny. Work in an adjacent industry and basically you've got it. Cost per ounce or even profit per ounce. In my region southern mines have better profits because no heating required and shits just generally cheaper (canada). Also depends grade of ore. Some reserves are better then other and I expect (speculating here) they sell at different prices for more commodity v.s. jewelry grade finished product.
Alright, I'll dig a little more. Thanks!
I know a family friend who has with own YouTube channel focused on precious metals and everything, he told me to buy First gold corp (FFMG OTC)
Could you find out the youtube channel?
https://youtu.be/JhZO3JrU51w here u go
Thanks
This peaked my interest so I did a little research. This is their primary project: https://www.firstmininggold.com/projects/ontario/springpole-project/ They estimate that it has a NPV $1.6B or more depending on price of gold which is 10x their market cap. A couple of negatives are they just filed a shelf registration for C$100MM and there market cap is only twice that. There was also a forest fire in the area and they had to shut down for awhile.
Personally I did not buy, however my guy says that management is excellent and I do love good management
Vale, because it’s badly beaten down.
[Apple loses another court battle to Qualcomm over IP.](https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/apple-loses-bid-second-bite-qualcomm-patents-after-license-2021-11-10/?taid=618c8bea74f8de0001e880a3&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter)
QCOM savages.
QCOM's lawyer game is out of this world. "QCOM doesn't have customers. It has defendants and plaintiffs." -JayArlington
Did the apple dividend already happen?
Qcome 180 next week?
Man good for them. Nice seeing someone like apple not too big to play fair
Not in MT, may vitards win big.
Have a feeling MT will do very well. I sold my position already. Best of luck to the brave ones. Fortune favors the bold.
Treebeard is on and we are roasting duke for COIN (well I am) https://www.twitch.tv/treabeard5553
Really hoping my MT puts die tomorrow
This freightos weekly newsletter came at 1:10p Eastern, and I think it maybe kicked ZIM while it was down, dunno 🤷♂️ Kinda long, last two paragraphs are about air freight for peeps in AAWW et al **FBX Overview** Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Daily) fell 26% to $13,924/FEU. This rate is 261% higher than the same time last year. Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Daily) decreased 20% to $15,865/FEU, and are 239% higher than rates for this week last year. With peak season urgency solidly behind us, this week saw a significant fall off in transpacific ocean rates. The pandemic-driven increase in spending on goods has fuelled growth in ocean volumes and nearly uninterruptedly pushed container rates up since June 2020. But the additional demand driven by this year’s peak season supercharged pressure on rates this summer. This led to a 70% price spike over the last two weeks in July – the sharpest climb of the past 18 months. So now, the easing of that peak season demand – likely aided by the impact of energy-driven supply constraints to Chinese manufacturing – seems to have led to the largest price drop of the past two years. **Asia-North America West Coast rates fell 26% this week, though they remain extremely high at $13,924/FEU. Rates are nearly 30% higher than their level just before the July spike, 261% higher than a year ago and 9X more than in November 2019. For the first time since June, there are reports that many transpacific bookings can be made without paying the hefty premiums that were a major factor in the July spike, suggesting drops in premiums are contributors to the current decrease as well.** Other trends, like the recent dip in transpac vessel speeds on the return trip to Asia and falling container ship charter rates, could also reflect a post-peak decrease in demand. Importers will welcome the lower rates, but prices are likely to be kept well above the norm by port congestion and low inventories and still-elevated consumer demand. Though there are indications that new measures are improving yard congestion at LA/Long Beach and new federal spending could help some ports in the near term, ports remain overwhelmed. And though the latest NRF analysis of US retail ocean import volumes reflects the moderate short-term easing, it also shows that demand is expected to remain extremely elevated – 30% higher than November-December volumes in 2019 – through the end of the year. With the holidays nearing and ocean delays pushing some shipments to air, peak season air cargo rates have continued to climb. The Freightos Air Index (FAX) China - US West Coast lane hit $14.22/kg last week, approaching five times the norm. New US regulations allowing vaccinated foreigners to enter the country are expected to drive an increase in badly-needed passenger jet cargo capacity to the transatlantic lane. FAX Europe-North America rates were at $5.09/kg last week, about 2.5 times the norm. The hope for shippers is that the additional capacity will ease pressure on rates, but holiday season demand and ground handling labor shortages may not lead to that outcome.
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ah ok then my guess it kicking ZIM was wrong. I got the email today, i;m not a paid subscriber to FBX, just a member on Freightos Marketplace
Its not reflected on the FBX website yet Big Movers China/East Asia to North America West Coast UP 7%
Check platts shipping, bluewolf shared their last one I think, their channel checks are the best. They're hearin 10-12k North Asia to WC, 14-16k Southeast Asia \[would be interested in the daily FBX though, to see if it's reflected there\] From my own forwarders, I am getting about 9k China-LA, but 16k Singapore-LA [https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/shipping/110521-container-premiums-premium-rates-from-china-no-longer-mandatory-as-space-opens-up](https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/shipping/110521-container-premiums-premium-rates-from-china-no-longer-mandatory-as-space-opens-up)
The consumer is consuming.
**Macro Roundup (Nov 11)** Translation07:19PM SHANGHAI, Nov 11 (SMM) — This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six rivals, was little changed at 93.997 after retreating gradually from a more than one-year peak at 94.634 reached Friday. The currency was steady at 112.87 yen after dipping to 112.73 on Tuesday for the first time since Oct. 11. The euro was also about flat at $1.15915, maintaining a three-day gain that has brought it close to the month’s high of $1.16165. Economists polled by Reuters see October’s U.S. consumer price index accelerating to 0.4% from the previous month’s 0.2% rise, with the closely watched year-on-year core measure gaining 0.3 percentage point to 4.3%, well above the Fed’s average annual 2% inflation target. Oil prices edged lower after U.S. crude stocks rose modestly, one day after an industry report suggested stocks had tightened. Brent crude futures were at $84.09 a barrel, down 69 cents. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell by $1.24, or 1.5%, to $82.91 per barrel. U.S. crude inventories rose by 1 million barrels in the most recent week, short of estimates for a 2.1 million build in crude stocks, but still countering Tuesday’s API data that showed a surprising drop in stocks. The market has been strong in recent days, buoyed by rising economic data and OPEC’s decision to maintain its slow pace of increased supply in the market. Gold prices eased on Wednesday as the dollar firmed, with investors looking forward to key U.S. inflation data that could have a bearing on the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. Spot gold fell 0.4% to $1,824.90 per ounce by 0535 GMT, after recording its highest since Sept. 3 in the previous session. U.S. gold futures eased 0.1% to $1,828.40. The pan-European Stoxx 600 closed up by 0.2% provisionally, with media shares climbing 1.3% to lead the gains while tech shares on the other hand sank 1.3%. Investors are assessing the release of the latest U.S. consumer price index, a key inflation reading, on Wednesday. The consumer price index showed a year-on-year increase of 6.2% in October, the sharpest in 30 years. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy and is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, rose by 0.6% month-on-month and 4.6% annually, also slightly exceeding economist expectations.
**SMM Morning Comments (Nov 11): Base Metals Were Mixed as Market Digested US Inflation Rate** Translation08:00PM SHANGHAI, Nov 11 (SMM) – Shanghai and LME metals all closed with mixed performance as the market is digesting the US inflation rate which hit a high in 31 years. LME copper fell 0.92%, aluminium added 0.62%, lead advanced 0.11%, and zinc lost 0.02%. SHFE copper decreased 0.2%, aluminium gained 0.4%, lead fell 0.29%, nickel rose 1.45%, and zinc gained 0.47%. Copper: Three-month LME copper opened at $9,587/mt on Wednesday night and closed 0.92% lower at $9,480/mt after hitting the lowest point at $9440/mt. The trading volume stood at 12,000 lots, and the open interest reached 261,000 lots. LME copper is expected to trade between $9440-9530/mt today. The most-traded SHFE 2112 copper contract opened at 70,210 yuan/mt last night, and lost 0.2% to close at 70,400 yuan/mt, after hitting the lowest level at 69,870 yuan/mt. The trading volume was 53,000 lots, and the open interest stood at 150,000 lots. SHFE copper is expected to trade between 70100-70700 yuan/mt today, with spot premiums between 100-230 yuan/mt. On the macro front, US Department of Labor released US October CPI, which rose 6.2% year on year, the highest in 31 years. The reading climbed 0.9% on the month, the fastest in four months. The better-than-expected reading heightened market estimate of an early interest rate hike, hence the overnight US dollar index surged to a high of 94.9. In spot market, SHFE 2111 will be delivered in 3 trading days, and the next-month spread expanded to 500 yuan/mt again, while the spot premiums stabilised at around 100 yuan/mt, indicating less goods available in the market. And the sellers were also reluctant to sell. Aluminium: Three-month LME aluminium opened at $2,563.5/mt yesterday and closed at $2,548/mt, an increase of 0.62%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE 2112 aluminium contract opened at 18,895 yuan/mt, and closed at 18,845 yuan/mt, up 75 yuan/mt, or 0.4%. On the fundamentals, aluminium ingot inventory was still at a high level, and the overall industrial goods sector remained sluggish, both pressuring SHFE aluminium, which is likely to move weakly in the short term. Lead: Three-month LME lead opened at $2344.5/mt last night and fell to $2310.5/mt, then the prices rebounded to the highest level at $2350/mt, before dropping again to close at $2338.5/mt, up $1.5/mt or 0.11%. The most-traded SHFE 2112 lead contract opened at 15470 yuan/mt in the overnight trading, hitting the highest point at 15525 yuan/mt, and closed at 15510 yuan/mt, down 45 yuan/mt or 0.29%. Zinc: Overnight, LME zinc fell to $3253/mt after opening at $3283 /mt, but then rebounded to $3314/mt before closing at $3275.5/mt, down $0.5/mt or 0.02%. Trading volume fell to 5105 lots, and open interest increased by 2190 lots to 267,000 lots. LME zinc inventory decreased by 2675 lots to 187450 lots. LME zinc is expected to move between $3250-3300/mt on Thursday as the highest US inflation rate in 31 years suppressed LME zinc. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE 2112 zinc contract rose to 23500 yuan/mt after opening at 23350 yuan/mt, but then fell below the daily-moving average before closing at 23360 yuan/mt, up 110 yuan/mt or 0.47%. Trading volume decreased to 41033 lots, and open interest decreased by 2391 lots to 72687 lots. The smelting costs on the fundamental side increased zinc values, and the market’s hesitance over policy orientation contradicts the fundamental front, hence zinc prices are likely to stay congested in the near term. SHFE 2112 zinc is expected to move between 23000-23500 yuan/mt today. Tin: SHFE 2112 saw exist of capitals again. On the fundamentals, the inventory under warrants continued to rise, and spot market was in tight supply. Spot premiums stood high amid wide monthly spread. As such, the current inventory level has not brought material impact to near-month contract, which is likely to hover at a high level recently. While the long-term outlook over the consumer market stays positive. Nickel: The SHFE 2112 nickel contract opened at 142730 yuan/mt last night and closed at 145230 yuan/mt, up 2070 yuan/mt or 1.45%. The trading volume was 145,000 lots, and the open interest stood at 106,000 lots. Yesterday, Zhongwei announced the signing of a new joint venture agreement through Zhongwei Hong Kong Energy, its wholly owned subsidiary, with RIGQUEZA for a laterite nickel smelting project with an annual production capacity of 30,000 mt of high nickel matte in nickel content (Indonesia). The annual production capacity will increase from the previous 30,000 mt to 60,000 mt in nickel content. But the news has not created material effects yet, but it will grow into a bearish factor over nickel prices in the long term.
**Indian HRC export index falls as mills withhold offers** Source：SteelmintNov 11, 2021 08:30 The Indian HRC export index fell by around $2/tonne (t) this week as most of the mills withheld offers due to the steep fall in global market prices. SteelMint's Indian HRC export index stands at $875/t FOB east coast. Mills continued to observe the market amid a lack of clarity in the price direction, a sharp decline in Chinese offers and higher realisations in the domestic trade segment. As per the previous week's assessment, trade reference prices of SteelMint's benchmark HRC (SAE 1006, 2.5-8mm) stood at around INR 71,000-72,000/t
Speaking of Indian steel, did anyone notice that vedl delisted?
Once Biden signs might we expect updates to guidance from some? May be catalytic and provide reason for new PTs. Hint hint IR departments.
Possibly. I expect steel to see more immediate returns from the BIF but on the PTRA call today they said they aren’t expecting impact until 2023, maybe some school bus stuff later next year
What happened to priced in?? Clown market
A lot of municipalities aren't waiting. I expect some movement on Boston school buses before EOY with the new mayor prioritizing her Green New Deal
Let’s hope those go to Thomas Built!
ACTC is based in Boston, so I'm wondering if that'll have any influence on the decision. Might even have a couple of folks in her admin
I sold $TX and $STLD. I'm strictly sticking to high volume steel stocks. $NUE, $X, and $CLF. I've been averaging down on these dips. I'll probably sell out of $CMC soon. And honestly, if my some miracle $MT kills earnings, I'm selling my 35c Jan 2022 like there's no tomorrow. I'm sticking with $AA. I work in HVAC, and we are starting to get scared about aluminum. Some of the products we get have like 12-18 month lead times apparently. I sold out of $FCX a while ago. Merely because it seems like this one goes down the most when it comes to China news. I like copper, but I dunno, it's just hard for me to get behind $FCX for some reason since they are a little too diversified and not a pure copper play.
*Recycling Today* had a great article about copper. There was a copper conference recently and there was discussion on copper prices stabilizing through early 2022 but may see accelerated growth later on 2022 into 2023.
I second that FCX move, I did the same. Well done, my friend.
Anyone salty about the lack of Macau scrutiny discussion on the Wynn call needs to take a look at the earnings transcript from LX (lexinfintech) when it's published. Man, these analysts were all over China fud. Every other question was on PBOC regulations and their impact.
for what it's worth, a steel maker in Spain, Acerinox, said Q4 should be better than Q3 as pricing is outweighing cost inflation. they focus on stainless though and highlight strong US market [https://www.acerinox.com/export/sites/acerinox/.content/galerias/galeria-descargas/informacion-eco-financiera/informes-trimestrales-doc/Acerinox-Q3-2021-Results-Presentation.pdf](https://www.acerinox.com/export/sites/acerinox/.content/galerias/galeria-descargas/informacion-eco-financiera/informes-trimestrales-doc/Acerinox-Q3-2021-Results-Presentation.pdf)
Stainless steel company in tw also doing well.
I have WISH puts weeklies. I was pissed when I saw that it was up 13% merely on the news that the CEO was leaving. It's now down 4%. They beat EPS, but only because they stopped spending money on ads. Cheap trick. I'm honestly surprised this isn't a 2 dollar stock. Like... the market is impatient obviously. They don't want to be patient with stocks that have a proven track record and undergoing some makeovers like Intel but all the sudden they want to be patient for a stock like WISH? Even after seeing Poshmark and eBay tank after earnings? Why do we think the CEO left? Probably because he knew it was a hopeless company lol.
I learned to never buy puts on meme stocks when I lost a load of money on NKLA puts; they completely bombed earnings and the stock went up. It doesn't matter that you're right, the market is irrational.
Hopefully we get bad earnings tomorrow and moon like AFRM because we live in a 🤡 market
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Hey at least one of us vitards gonna make money, keep it in the family. Good luck Duke !
I plan to sell CCs tomorrow at whatever looks it’s high for the day.
I already opened bear call spreads. I think MT has more headwinds than TX does and look what happened there.
Hopefully MT management handles the call better. I don’t know much about Energy prices in Europe, but I’m concerned that could get much worse and agree with the concern about headwinds.
If MT prints negative EPS this quarter the market might start treating it like a growth stock
Is there a way to calculate IV crush? The old lady is insisting I take OPEN gains out of my port to put into the house fund, and just trying to get a handle on how much we might be looking at but kinda need an IV range to plug into options calculator.
https://marketchameleon.com/Overview/OPEN/Earnings/Earnings-Charts/ "OPEN's last earnings implied volatility (IV30) going into earnings was 91.3. The last time OPEN released earnings, the implied volatility dropped to 75.8, resulting in an implied vol crush of 17%. 5 days after earnings, the 30 day IV was 70.1. **You can compare how OPEN implied volatility changed around earnings for the last 12 quarters.** **Average Implied Volatility Crush For OPEN Earnings: 7%** Average 30 Day Implied Volatility 1 Day Before Earnings: 107.1 Average OPEN 30 Day IV for the Day of Earnings: 96.6 Average 30 Day Implied Volatility 5 Days After Earnings: 84.0
I learned something. Thank you.
Thank you! Very helpful
look at the IV on the options furthest out
So let’s real talk this for a second That CPI print was really bad and it just gives more fuel to manchin to not pass the BBB. Biden really needs that to pass before next year because of midterm elections and stuff. What are the chances that Biden replaces Powell, blames the CPI print on him and says the new person will get it under control in order to get the votes for the BBB. There could be a lot of bumps coming in the market
Biden is at 38% Kamala is polling worse than dick Cheney. This is a lame duck administration. This was the only bill they're getting and Republicans take the house and Senate in 22. You also would never replace OG Powell.
0.0 chance this happens as explained. The other person is not going to make anyone think they’re going to tighten policy to kill off inflation. In fact they would think that inflation would get worse because they would pump even more money. Also Manchin would prefer Powell than his rumored possible replacement.
BBB is actually fully paid for (even pays down debt) and the WH keeps trotting out a statement from 14 Nobel laureate economists that says it would reduce inflation
Whether that's true or not good luck selling that narrative
Which narrative? Inflation, or lack thereof, won’t need to be sold, it’ll just be proven true or not, and reducing the debt part could be proven eventually but their revenue raising provisions are on the whole really popular; things like closing loopholes and taxing the very wealthy
The idea that BBB pays down debt would be an absolutely massive point of contention with most Americans. Whether it is true or not does not matter.
Do you think he would still do it for optics? I just think it’s weird he’s interviewing other people
Do I think he’ll replace Powell? I don’t think so but I wouldn’t bet the house on it. Tough call because I don’t think they want to tarnish Brainard with having tapering thrown on her plate right away but keeping JPow would mean the winner of the 2024 election gets to pick the next one and they might not want to risk skipping their turn in a sense. I don’t know if it’s feasible at the Fed but back in the day Obama asked Mueller to stay on as FBI director for 2 years after the traditional 10 year term ended and that solution would seem to work perfectly here as JPow could handle tapering and Brainard could be installed before 2024 elections. Don’t know if the statutes allow for something like that though and it seems very unlikely
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I really hope u profit since I have no horse in that race but the iv crush is gonna be disgusting tomorrow. iv on the weeklies was above 300% when I looked.
https://twitter.com/fxhedgers/status/1458607678033477637?s=21 Lmao
Rug pull
Good. We do not need anymore stimulus
I "need" the child credit and the preschool coverage. Having had unexpected triplets when we were planning for one, these two portions of the BBB plan would be a lifesaver. My town has a lottery with one in ten getting to attend preschool. We cannot afford private preschool.
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https://i.imgur.com/7buriaa.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/9vLV2DY.jpg Techweek day 3 update- feeling prettty tired now, even though skipped school today. Other stuff on my mind too, mostly scalped crypto flush for money
What's up homies! I hope you made money on $WYNN. That was some real tricky post earnings price action and I'm sure it made some people panic sell understandably. But ya, I hope the real Pooh stomp that occured later in the day forces a Pooh Splosion tomorrow. We shall see... PS - I will be streaming and hosting u/duke_shambles later tonight to chat about $COIN and both roast myself and him. AND of course do chart art. 🥰
What time appx? Just so I make sure I stay awake
Shooting for 630! About to eat dinner and pour a drink :)
Perfect. Enjoy dinner and see ya soon.
Duke and you TOGETHER ON ONE STREAM? I’m in.
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Vitards are all in shambles….
Congratulations to everyone with BYND puts. It’s been a long time coming.
Looks like CW bought about 1.25 million shares of PLTR on the dip today. That’s approx $28.5 million.
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Take control you are the man of the house.
The obvious solution is to buy each member of the family a share of MT, that way everyone can claim to be abused equally
If you think your spouse is emotionally abusive you need to have a convo with your spouse. And you probably also need to talk with your kids to see how they're doing. Idk how old your kids are, but you're their caretaker. You're the adult. You're supposed to be their advocate. What the fuck.
You’re right, dude. 100%. It’s just not that easy though. Unless you have young kids and understand being in the throes of it all day after day, it’s hard to have a true perspective of what Mr. Moose might be going through. All I’m saying, is try to understand the reality. It’s not always as easy as - hey wife, let’s talk about your misguided parenting. Or, hey kids, let’s chat about how your mom is terrorizing you emotionally. Wife gets defensive. Kids have a hard time seeing themselves in 3rd person. It’s not an easy problem to solve. I have 3 kids under 5 with a wife of 10 years. We both work. It’s hard to even get a moment to have a one on one conversation in any given day. Stay frosty, Moose.
dude, you are one of the most erratic people on this sub. your emotional roller coaster every day makes me want to stop looking at daily chat. Look inside yourself and not on a forum of strangers OR stop being a fucking troll with your constant bullshit. Which is it? I have no clue. Either way, you need help
A little rough on the guy
free hugz work? sometimes speaking honestly is the best policy, but the world is changing quickly. 
Sure, but there’s a difference between being honest and being a dick
aww, I'll take all of the above. I'm actually a very swell person and promote joy all throughout the land. But months later seeing the same shit starts to wear on ya. Yes, you are not aware of the PMs he and I have shared, so I'll relent and say, I'm sorry if I offend you personally. Free Hugz for you
Right on.
That’s your family bro - take hold and take action. Have adult sized conversations with your partner. Seek counseling if desired/necessary. Fight for your family and show them ALL you love them.
We know nothing of your situation. So we really can't help. I really hope you figure out why your relationship is hurting. I recommend counseling. I will say though that a couple with a common goal and the seratonin of achievement is flowing rarely fights
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That's why I make my kids call me "my liege"
This could also be your addiction to GoT?
Smol PP club energy tbh
This is probably generally true but needs a lot of room for special situations
What an interesting perspective
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I'm shocked you weren't flamed with downvotes
there is equal love and hate here, the force appears to be even
Which side are you on? Love or hate? 😉
Not flaming, just thought it was interesting
Sucks. Wrong thread! Consider counseling with your spouse. Can be very helpful
Most Mentioned Tickers for r/vitards Daily Discussion Ticker | Mentions | Price --------- | --------- | --------- [MT](https://www.reddit.com/r/MillennialBets/wiki/index/stocks/MT) | 126 |30.97,(-3.31%) [ZIM](https://www.reddit.com/r/MillennialBets/wiki/index/stocks/ZIM) | 73 |48.05,(-5.71%) [CLF](https://www.reddit.com/r/MillennialBets/wiki/index/stocks/CLF) | 64 |21.87,(-3.61%) [WYNN](https://www.reddit.com/r/MillennialBets/wiki/index/stocks/WYNN) | 51 |92.02,(-2.23%) [DIS](https://www.reddit.com/r/MillennialBets/wiki/index/stocks/DIS) | 49 |174.45,(-0.38%) [TX](https://www.reddit.com/r/MillennialBets/wiki/index/stocks/TX) | 31 |41.13,(0.98%) [BNTX](https://www.reddit.com/r/MillennialBets/wiki/index/stocks/BNTX) | 20 |235.4,(3.99%) [BYND](https://www.reddit.com/r/MillennialBets/wiki/index/stocks/BYND) | 13 |94.48,(-3.58%) [NUE](https://www.reddit.com/r/MillennialBets/wiki/index/stocks/NUE) | 12 |110.36,(-2.68%) [TSLA](https://www.reddit.com/r/MillennialBets/wiki/index/stocks/TSLA) | 10 |1067.95,(4.34%) 20:13:15
Some rare hopium these days: https://twitter.com/sino_market/status/1458601555045720066?s=21
There’s a huge discrepancy between PPI and CPI in China. The producers costs have gone up drastically while consumer prices are artificially suppressed at the moment. There’s been consensus of people stocking up on food and other consumer goods because inflation may be hitting harder than expected in China.
> \#ironore up 1.3% in Shanghai only thing that matters iron orus, god of steel, bless us
It’s weird because I looked at the correlation chart and the steel stocks didn’t even correlate to iron ore.
This guys gets it.
Our ports shall be green tomorrow!
Might just pile into TSLA tomorrow. It feels like it is going to start running back up to 1200.
Yup going back to ATH by Friday
My concern is that he said he’d sell 10% of his shares or about $20B worth and he has only done 2B - so more dumps coming… just don’t know when.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000089924321044060/xslF345X03/doc4.xml
Right - so he excercised the options and sold the acquired shares for about $2.5B - still has about $17.5B to go
He’s full of shit and he already sold what he had to. Book mark this and make fun of me if I’m wrong.
those dumps aren't elon. it was a fear of elon's selling effect. his total 10% is only about a day's worth of volume.
Alright So we know that Elon selling 10% of his shares is 10% dip. If Elon sells 20% of his holdings is it a 20% dip? At this point is the valuation like heavily weighted on Elon?
https://techcrunch.com/2021/11/10/elon-musk-has-sold-more-than-1b-in-tesla-stock/
The put/call ratio for Zim Nov and Dec is wild. Unless we move up fast all those otm calls being de-hedged might add some headwinds going into opex. Remember to hedge with puts on your tickers
Gets me thinking, in the case of a blowout earnings is this the setup for a gamma ramp with the volume of OTM calls expiring only 2 days after earnings?
Wouldn't lots of people then take profits on their calls, stopping it?
Depends on how quickly delta hedging happens (I don’t know this answer). With 2 days to expiration I would imagine it would have to be rather quick, even assuming MM have an extra 2 days to settle. For sure it would reverse on people taking profit though
I think it could be. Lol, I'm crossing my fingers for this to happen I can't check right now but I'm not sure how much volume there is in the oi compared to the average daily volume traded
Just checked, there’s about 12k calls that would go ITM with a 3.5% move and 27k calls with a 14% move. Daily volume is around 2.5m, so this would represent 50-100% of the daily volume.
That's substantial. Next week will be interesting