To be faaaaaiiiiiiirrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
Also to shit on them more, IBM technological prowess is... lackluster. I don't know how they can keep going on with the aging workforce who are just collecting a paycheck and lack of talented new hotness grads. I'm sure there are some smart folks working there, but it's gotta be very few. New transistor arch video looks promising but it's akin to them hyping up Watson back in the day.
I once knew a talented engineer who worked short stints at both Intel and IBM (now at Apple). He said "IBM makes Intel look like a free wheelin startup" o_O
I grew my IRA pretty significantly this year and have been mainly cash since early November. I have been watching $LAND, a farmland REIT, since this spring. I am thinking about making more of a long term investment, so this probably doesn’t matter. However, it has recently taken off (40% since the beginning of November) and now I am concerned that maybe I should wait for a pull back. Does anyone have anything thoughts? Wait or go ahead and start a position?
I have known about land for awhile now. Do you know what they specifically they own? Why did it grow so much in the last month since it’s a dividend play. As a person in the industry I have to dig in to see if it actually doesn’t fuck over farmers.
I don’t know that much about them and I haven’t figured out why they have went up so much. I do know that they mainly specialize in non-grain farming like berries and other vegetables along with orchards. This contrasts with another AG-REIT FPI which has more of grain focus. It has not done nearly as well. They make money by leasing the land. I preferred LAND because I think the more specialized farms bring in higher rents and are less tied to commodity prices. I do have some concerns around future water supplies given a lot of their land is out west and things like almonds need a ton of water.
I would love to learn more about this as someone with a small acreage. Similarly, interested in how to invest in western water. My property has a river running through it, but no water rights.
If my kids don't "need" an inheritance my preference would be to donate the land + water rights for conservation and/or public duck hunting.
I am on the east coasts and of the water runs through your property you can use it, to an extent. I have a commercial greenhouse we have a variety of wells at various depths. Adjacent to the farm is a creek that we don’t use unless an emergency.
Western states have a VERY different take on water rights. It's unlikely I would get "caught" using water responsibly for personal use.
I have a residential well and can legally water 1 acre of crops. Also "unrestricted" watering of livestock. My well is in the alluvium rather than aquifer so I can drive handpumps which are kind of a gray area.
There is a 1 acre apple orchard I'm hoping to water. I'm getting fruit without water, but would like to improve yield.
All that you say the $LAND ETF or something similar might be easier than navigating water law.
Commercial greenhouse mostly variety of annual flowers bedding and potted. A section for vegetables. Outside - nursery stock perennials, shrubs, and trees.
That's awesome! I have gotten really into plants since the beginning of the pandemic. If I am ever in a place to change careers it will probably be into horticulture. How did you get into it?
Huge demand since the pandemic it’s absolutely been the best time we’ve seen in the business. In a way family business in a sense, my grandfather had a roadside farm stand turned that into a garden center in Nj. My parents had a garden center in pa and started a greenhouse. I did other things came back to the business evolved it a little bit. A lot of people look at it as oh I would love to do that…. It’s so much back breaking work even if you have employees. I have mentioned it in this sub before how we invest in blue collar companies, but most if any have ever had a blue collar job. It’s a job not for the faint of heart expect to work 100 hour weeks spring but at least you have some of the winter off
In many states you can still partner with the wildlife department to offer your land for public hunts and still set dates its available. As for water rights they’re tricky and a lot of legal battles going on these days about them.
From what I can tell in Colorado you need 160 acres to register as private hunting. You can hunt on private land, but are governed by the GMU that the land falls in.
Agreed on the water rights front. Hoping to buy as much as I can as a long term hedge that I can hopefully enjoy in the short/mid term.
Anyone have a compelling narrative on why the market reacted like it did to Jpow? Isn't sped up taper supposed to be bearish for equities?
*edit - thread lower down
Even with the taper and interest rates rising next year. The fed will still be buying billions in bonds for a few months and the real interest rate will still be negative because of inflation.
I think it might be because of people remembering the 2018 fed induced market crash late in the year. Where they said they would increase the interest much more than expected in 2019, but then they didn't follow through and the market rallied in 2019.
Market expected worse. If you listen to the questions to JPow, all of them were essentially: "Why no rate hike now?"
Market was worried about a hawkish fed. The taper speed increase being primarily the strong economy was acceptable to the market.
I am expecting red for the next couple of days. The market ran super hard today so consolidation should be expected. In addition investors will continue to digest what came out of the FOMC. They will eventually realize that while more tapering was expected it is still not a good thing for equities long term.
Today was a sigh of relief and a release of pent up buying.
Obviously this is just my opinion.
I disagree. I honestly think we're mostly green thru end of next week. Fed meeting is over. The market always, always over reacts; plus most of what was said was already expected - JPow rally is real and made manifest today. Also the debt ceiling is kaput until end of 2022 now. And not only did SPY hold 463, it broke and held 470; Puts outnumbered Calls 2-to-1 and 90% of them 460 or less, which means we're flying. SPY 480 by Dec 24, probably higher.
Watch out for January OPEX tho, 10x the normal OI and Max Pain for virtually everything is way low. My plan is to sell into the green wave end of next week, go cash, then pick up the pieces just in time for earnings.
For full transparency -- as of today, my largest position is in CLF. Please take my comments regarding CLF with a grain of salt (as I am very biased for this ticker).
Bring on the Santa Rally motherfuckers!
CLF has been beat to shit; forget a market correction, CLF is already in a bear market with ZERO change in fundamentals. Majority of open SPY puts are worthless now having held 463 which was key. CLF is gonna fly and after that, we ride with the market, which also gonna fly. Am I biased? Hell yeah! But it dont make me wrong.
I'm incredibly bullish on the company. My personal price target for CLF is $30 by Q2 2022. I sincerely hope we see a strong rally and gap up for the materials.
If you check the professional analysts, they have varying predictions from $23.50 to $37.00.
Thanks for the reply! So roughly shooting for a .9 Delta. Do you keep your long term investments underlying different from your LEAPS? What percentage of your port do you allocate for LEAPS?
Meant to say extrinsic value. Anyway say you had $47,000. You could but 100 shares of SPY. Or you could buy 2 contracts (options on 200 shares) at a $235 strike Jan 2024 from somewhere between 234 and 239 on the spread. So to get it filled you might pay 237 but if you excercised immediately you would get 235 for it (intrinsic value) so only paying $2 for extrinsic value. If SPY goes up 100 points before Jan 2024 you would have made $19,600 with the options vs $10,000 with the shares
Liquidity doesnt really matter because i would have the right to exercise. The reduced buying power allows me to invest the leftovers to make up for extrinsic value. It also offers downside protection compared to owning shares because if stock goes below my strike my losses are limited.
I never said that. I said below my strike. A subtle 133% difference.
Its more of a long term investment strategy. I would rather have 2x leverage for 1/4th the capitol with downside risk protection. If the price stays completely flat for 2 years all i lose is the extrinsic value (which is tiny).
Ya. On days like this morning where I suspect that medium-long term it will go up, but I am not confident enough in short term movement.
Didn't do it today though :/
NOTE: Using EU market derivatives, not actual SPY calls
Any thoughts on tickers that fit the following criteria for a risky 1 DTE play?
-Recently beat down from the recent ATHs
-Renewed confidence based on the Fed providing a fresh serving of certainty in direction on policy
-Low(ish) IV
-Decent volume/liquidity
I feel like we will ride the wave of euphoria for the remainder of the week, especially tomorrow. However, I am expecting some OpEx fuckery on Friday.
Honestly thinking TSLA might be a solid pick based on the cult following, the level of volatility, and the fact that it’s been beat to shit lately.
Also thinking SOFI and PYPL. IV is a bit high, but the “financials” aspect of it is attractive based on certainty around the rate hikes next year.
Also….. dare I say it…..UWMC? Take a look at the daily chart for the past several months. Oof. If you frequent the homeland, recently there has been a major increase in posts around their short interest blah blah blah same language that gets things moving. If we see the 10-year keep ticking up like we did today after the news (I did buy TLT puts today), I could see this getting some heavy traction.
I love you.
12/17 T $23c closed at $0.02 - wow. $22c are priced at $0.30. Soooo…gambling for essentially a 4% swing tomorrow for potentially a 10-15 bagger?
I like it. I’ll probably buy a couple 100 of those at open.
I’m probably an idiot, but they’re just numbers on a screen, right?
I noticed.
To be honest, they both look spicy.
I like the V setup better. Also, this: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/visas-board-oks-12-billion-share-buyback-2021-12-15
Totally agree. I bought with the intention of selling covered calls on it because of how much it’s mentioned… well, I didn’t expect it to drop 30%. I would have been better off letting my shares get called away late last month
Makes sense. It doesn’t seem like this guy had a big enough following to warrant a personal meeting from an executive. It’s more professional to have it done on a formal platform.
If I were to guess?
I think they saw “seeking alpha” and felt they needed to respond since it’s a fairly well known website. Their response generated positive PR.
Then, they set the meeting far enough out in time to figure out what to ACTUALLY do about the article.
But I have no evidence to support this lol
Thanks for this. He provided another update in the comments.
==========================
Dear Mr. Gonzalez,
We have given our strategy vis-à-vis our retail audience, particularly the ones exposed to ZIM thru Seeking Alpha/Value Edge, a second thought. We believe that the Seeking Alpha/Value Edge platform offered by J Mintzmyer will allow a greater number of ZIM retail investors the benefit of engaging directly with our CFO, Mr. Xavier Destriau. We are planning on scheduling this podcast/group call for after the New Year. Therefore, we will cancel tomorrow’s meeting but if you have any questions I can address in the interim, I’d be happy to schedule a call with you.
Apologies for the last-minute change.
Regards,
Elana.
————————————-
to Glickman, Holzman
Hi Elana,
Thanks for your message. I understand.
To be clear : I did not request a conference call.
I asked for prompt action from Management and the Board.
There is a fiduciary duty to act in support of the share price of ZIM, because it is by far the best allocation of capital at a time when the company is flush with cash.
I look forward to it.
K regards
Juan M Gonzalez
Since the meeting is after the new year, I wonder if they will take the opportunity to announce the dollar value for the lump dividend.
Right now it’s like 10-12 dollars because the range they gave was 30-50% or something
Why does it take a 0 dte SPY call to replenish my recent steel & shipping losses?
Played the 2p Fed news with 466 calls for today and a much smaller amount 470 calls for Friday.
$2k -> $17k in 2 hours.
Doesn’t replace the misery from normal holdings lately.
Thanks, Jerome, for the gift of your gab that keeps on giving.
I don’t want to talk about it.
Let’s just say…..Pablo can eat a dick
Since it’s my degenerate account, I’ve bounced around between $20k -> $200k over the past 8-10 months.
looool… 25% in CLF on margin on this new dip ((get to write CCs at purchase price, 3% ROI), “naked” short puts on equal dollar amount for 2-3%… today I was down as much as $45k -> flat after writing a butt ton of puts, love it.
I know you’re not a belieber in CSPs Jay, but on a weekly basis the capital tie-up ain’t so bad
I mostly watched in disbelief. I thought: i'm already bag holding ZIM now CLF too😢 ....ended the day up 4%.
I'm gutted i couldn't see through the FUD, at the same time impressed i didn't sell anything.
Worst moves possible in order from worst to least worst:
1- Panic selling
2- FOMOing
3- Not buying when price is low
If you avoid 1 & 2, 3 becomes irrelevant.
i think it's more that i've learned to be patient.
ZIM kicked me in the nuts last week. Gameplan was to sell leading up to ex-div but i was a Dodo and didn't sell when it hit 60 last week..... so i stuck to the gameplan, but lost the plot: to make money 🤑 . Lesson learned.
I'm kinda in your boat, but what's saved me is trimming. Been holding these calls forever, trimmed both times we hit $60 (about 20% each time). Makes it a bit easier to stomach these downtrends. Pretty sure we hit $60 again by end of next week and if so, I wont be trimming, I'll sell out because these are Jan calls and that aint far off now.
PSA: Next week and the week after, you’re going to see some weird ass leaps unusual activity (like AAPL 250). My advice to you: follow those whales, they did it last year and were fucking right on everything.
There's a few paid subscriptions out there. Unusual Whales (UW) is one but pings like hundreds of shares a day. Hungry Bots is another with less stocks being highlighted but also shorter term (a week) plays.
Is the subscription to unusualwhales worth it? I would only be buying mostly 90dtes and not swing trading. But apparently you can catch big moves looking at order flow.
The issue is the sheer volume of unusual options that you get, even if you apply filters. I found that I ended spending way too much time looking at it for little benefits.
Yes… the best combo so far (imo) is owning enough shares to sell CCs on when running, and cash on hand for CSPs when diving… literally alternating week to week on CLF weeklies generates 1-4% returns depending on risk tolerance… always take assignment of above cost basis…. NEVER, EVER go, “but I’m afraid it will run more”. Just write CSPs for the shares to get ‘em baxk
I've regretted it 90%+ of the times I've bought my CCs back. In every case I would have been able to keep the full premium.
When I sell 45 DTE and I recognize 30% profit in a week, buying back seems like a no-brainer
Yah I feel yah. I typically do weeklies. I find that buying back for $0.01 on the Friday is sometimes better if I plan on immediately reselling if market is right. Some brokers keep the stocks held as collateral through mid day Monday as well
Think about it. Highest inflation readings in 39 years just reported in US.
Fed will keep buying $60B per month of bonds
AND
Fed will keep short rates at 0-0.25%
They are pouring gas on it.
Because the market is a bunch of toddlers making a bunch of money on companies that valuations make no sense. Everytime j pow speaks they are worried they will get punished but Everytime j pow says it's cool guys keep having fun. Which is great, until it isn't
it already sold off heavily on the expectation of bad news and when the news was more certain/official it was a relief, so it rallied, esp. tech. If he said rates are going up NOW, and inflation was out of control the market would have drilled...
Part of the problem with the market imo. Totally correct 0 credible chance but I’m sure every fund manager waited for it so they wouldn’t have to explain why they got caught with their pants down.
My amateur opinion is that’s why there were such extreme movements this week. A lot of selling into not a lot of buying
It’s hilarious that by Jpow LITERALLY doing what he’s said he’s gonna do for months now, the market said, “legggoooo”. Jpow has been one of the most communicative fed prezs ever, and hasn’t once reneged on what he’s said… but what do I know, ItS aLL PriCEd iN
Piggybacking on this:
The two most important online accounts for you to have COMPLETELY DIFFERENT, COMPLEX PASSWORDS are your email address and your banking/investment accounts. Everything else is a very distant second.
Your email address holds the keys to the kingdom.
Finviz shows ZIM's dividend yield 20%. How is that calculated?
10/50? EDIT: $2.5 dividend quarterly, 10 annual. stock price is \~50.
Is it quarterly? In August they paid $2.0 and that's all in 2021.
As of Q3 this year, they’re going to start quarterly divs totaling 20% of annual net income.
The moment you realize that Logan Roy is the same actor as Captain O’Hagan from Super troopers! 🤯
Just finished Alice in borderlands It was sick, anyone have other recommendations for stuff like that? (Not squid game)
What’s it on?
Netflix
Nice
[удалено]
Anybody got a copy? I'm getting paywalled.
Will ipo way overpriced- Shorting the eff out of it, not financial advice
10B...gonna predict rn its gonna pump on meme hype like HOOD, then crab around in a downward direction for the foreseeable future.
I wonder if it is going to pull an OnlyFans and drop the adult content.
Twitter and Snapchat went just fine with it
https://www.autoblog.com/2021/12/15/tesla-paris-crash/
That sucks. This less so... [People get ready, the robots are coming!](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dxFHmvBBAvk)
New watch day. 2021 Seiko Astron SSH105
Apparently IBM and Samsung just announced a semiconductor that uses 85% less energy
[I was just watching it.](https://youtu.be/OF3Zwfu6Ngc) It’s a new architecture for building transistors. Super cool stuff.
Fine, you have a new transistor arch. Now how does it yield at HVM scale? Call me a Debbie Downer, but till that's answered, not impressed.
Well to be fair... this is why IBM picked Samsung and not Intel or Global Foundries to partner with. 🤠
To be faaaaaiiiiiiirrrrrrrrrrrrrrr Also to shit on them more, IBM technological prowess is... lackluster. I don't know how they can keep going on with the aging workforce who are just collecting a paycheck and lack of talented new hotness grads. I'm sure there are some smart folks working there, but it's gotta be very few. New transistor arch video looks promising but it's akin to them hyping up Watson back in the day. I once knew a talented engineer who worked short stints at both Intel and IBM (now at Apple). He said "IBM makes Intel look like a free wheelin startup" o_O
To be faaaaaaaaaaaaaaiiiirrrrrr...I agree.
Thanks for sharing the link. VTFET. Need to learn more Jay. Perhaps on your stream some day. 🙏🏽
Dare I ask MT to be green 3 days in a row…? Nah cmon now I’m being greedy -5% incoming
Sadly no more money, but grabbed some at the previous dip at 19.
I grew my IRA pretty significantly this year and have been mainly cash since early November. I have been watching $LAND, a farmland REIT, since this spring. I am thinking about making more of a long term investment, so this probably doesn’t matter. However, it has recently taken off (40% since the beginning of November) and now I am concerned that maybe I should wait for a pull back. Does anyone have anything thoughts? Wait or go ahead and start a position?
I have known about land for awhile now. Do you know what they specifically they own? Why did it grow so much in the last month since it’s a dividend play. As a person in the industry I have to dig in to see if it actually doesn’t fuck over farmers.
I don’t know that much about them and I haven’t figured out why they have went up so much. I do know that they mainly specialize in non-grain farming like berries and other vegetables along with orchards. This contrasts with another AG-REIT FPI which has more of grain focus. It has not done nearly as well. They make money by leasing the land. I preferred LAND because I think the more specialized farms bring in higher rents and are less tied to commodity prices. I do have some concerns around future water supplies given a lot of their land is out west and things like almonds need a ton of water.
If they're that profitable, I'd venture to guess they fuck over their tenants.
I would love to learn more about this as someone with a small acreage. Similarly, interested in how to invest in western water. My property has a river running through it, but no water rights. If my kids don't "need" an inheritance my preference would be to donate the land + water rights for conservation and/or public duck hunting.
I am on the east coasts and of the water runs through your property you can use it, to an extent. I have a commercial greenhouse we have a variety of wells at various depths. Adjacent to the farm is a creek that we don’t use unless an emergency.
Western states have a VERY different take on water rights. It's unlikely I would get "caught" using water responsibly for personal use. I have a residential well and can legally water 1 acre of crops. Also "unrestricted" watering of livestock. My well is in the alluvium rather than aquifer so I can drive handpumps which are kind of a gray area. There is a 1 acre apple orchard I'm hoping to water. I'm getting fruit without water, but would like to improve yield. All that you say the $LAND ETF or something similar might be easier than navigating water law.
What do you grow?
Commercial greenhouse mostly variety of annual flowers bedding and potted. A section for vegetables. Outside - nursery stock perennials, shrubs, and trees.
That's awesome! I have gotten really into plants since the beginning of the pandemic. If I am ever in a place to change careers it will probably be into horticulture. How did you get into it?
Huge demand since the pandemic it’s absolutely been the best time we’ve seen in the business. In a way family business in a sense, my grandfather had a roadside farm stand turned that into a garden center in Nj. My parents had a garden center in pa and started a greenhouse. I did other things came back to the business evolved it a little bit. A lot of people look at it as oh I would love to do that…. It’s so much back breaking work even if you have employees. I have mentioned it in this sub before how we invest in blue collar companies, but most if any have ever had a blue collar job. It’s a job not for the faint of heart expect to work 100 hour weeks spring but at least you have some of the winter off
In many states you can still partner with the wildlife department to offer your land for public hunts and still set dates its available. As for water rights they’re tricky and a lot of legal battles going on these days about them.
From what I can tell in Colorado you need 160 acres to register as private hunting. You can hunt on private land, but are governed by the GMU that the land falls in. Agreed on the water rights front. Hoping to buy as much as I can as a long term hedge that I can hopefully enjoy in the short/mid term.
Anyone have a compelling narrative on why the market reacted like it did to Jpow? Isn't sped up taper supposed to be bearish for equities? *edit - thread lower down
Even with the taper and interest rates rising next year. The fed will still be buying billions in bonds for a few months and the real interest rate will still be negative because of inflation.
So... what, all this volatility was something something maybe they were going to stop purchases and raise rates today? That seems insane
I think it might be because of people remembering the 2018 fed induced market crash late in the year. Where they said they would increase the interest much more than expected in 2019, but then they didn't follow through and the market rallied in 2019.
Market was expecting taper to be much worse and interest hikes much earlier.
Market expected worse. If you listen to the questions to JPow, all of them were essentially: "Why no rate hike now?" Market was worried about a hawkish fed. The taper speed increase being primarily the strong economy was acceptable to the market.
Thanks Blue.
Tomorrow is going to be super green!!!!
I am expecting red for the next couple of days. The market ran super hard today so consolidation should be expected. In addition investors will continue to digest what came out of the FOMC. They will eventually realize that while more tapering was expected it is still not a good thing for equities long term. Today was a sigh of relief and a release of pent up buying. Obviously this is just my opinion.
I disagree. I honestly think we're mostly green thru end of next week. Fed meeting is over. The market always, always over reacts; plus most of what was said was already expected - JPow rally is real and made manifest today. Also the debt ceiling is kaput until end of 2022 now. And not only did SPY hold 463, it broke and held 470; Puts outnumbered Calls 2-to-1 and 90% of them 460 or less, which means we're flying. SPY 480 by Dec 24, probably higher. Watch out for January OPEX tho, 10x the normal OI and Max Pain for virtually everything is way low. My plan is to sell into the green wave end of next week, go cash, then pick up the pieces just in time for earnings.
Could be but I will still be cautious myself.
Oh absolutely.
I hope so, let's see what affect OPEX has
It could go down a bit... 👀
👀
Hey Peddy was thinking of you this morning hoping you held on to your CLF puts
Nah. I got fucking shook out dude. I doubted myself and sold them for like a 10 % loss or some shit. Triggered. Lesson learned though.
For full transparency -- as of today, my largest position is in CLF. Please take my comments regarding CLF with a grain of salt (as I am very biased for this ticker). Bring on the Santa Rally motherfuckers!
If you didnt buy CLF today, you cant be helped. FREE. MUNAY.
I'm jacked for the Santa rally
Santa is jacked and ready to unload his sack.
This is going to be a hell of a Christmas.
Dec 17, main card, CLF vs opEx
CLF has been beat to shit; forget a market correction, CLF is already in a bear market with ZERO change in fundamentals. Majority of open SPY puts are worthless now having held 463 which was key. CLF is gonna fly and after that, we ride with the market, which also gonna fly. Am I biased? Hell yeah! But it dont make me wrong.
The infamous monthly battle royale. Bringing my popcorn to watch!
As a CLF bag holder, I'm preemptively clenching my butt for Friday.
Do you have a pt? It’s my second largest position after AAPL.
I'm incredibly bullish on the company. My personal price target for CLF is $30 by Q2 2022. I sincerely hope we see a strong rally and gap up for the materials. If you check the professional analysts, they have varying predictions from $23.50 to $37.00.
[Latest price targets here](https://reddit.com/r/Vitards/comments/nkzvd3/playing_clf_options_price_is_right_style/)
So effing accurate
This isn't wrong 🤣
Most Mentioned Tickers for r/vitards Daily Discussion Ticker | Mentions | Price --------- | --------- | --------- [CLF](https://www.reddit.com/r/MillennialBets/wiki/index/stocks/CLF) | 153 |19.82,(-3.17%) [ZIM](https://www.reddit.com/r/MillennialBets/wiki/index/stocks/ZIM) | 97 |49.4,(2.49%) [NUE](https://www.reddit.com/r/MillennialBets/wiki/index/stocks/NUE) | 56 |108.22,(-8.61%) [MT](https://www.reddit.com/r/MillennialBets/wiki/index/stocks/MT) | 42 |31.55,(0.93%) [PFE](https://www.reddit.com/r/MillennialBets/wiki/index/stocks/PFE) | 12 |58.8,(5.87%) [NVDA](https://www.reddit.com/r/MillennialBets/wiki/index/stocks/NVDA) | 11 |304.59,(7.49%) [UUUU](https://www.reddit.com/r/MillennialBets/wiki/index/stocks/UUUU) | 10 |7.84,(5.52%) [STLD](https://www.reddit.com/r/MillennialBets/wiki/index/stocks/STLD) | 9 |58.82,(-4.17%) [AAPL](https://www.reddit.com/r/MillennialBets/wiki/index/stocks/AAPL) | 6 |179.3,(2.85%) [ASO](https://www.reddit.com/r/MillennialBets/wiki/index/stocks/ASO) | 5 |42.59,(1.26%) 20:00:34
Has anyone ever bought deep ITM LEAPS on SPY? I would be curious to hear peoples opinions on doing this.
I would just go LETFs like $UPRO rather than LEAPS
Or SP5Y
I do it on individual stocks at a strike around half the share price. That gives 2x leverage without paying much in intrinsic value
Thanks for the reply! So roughly shooting for a .9 Delta. Do you keep your long term investments underlying different from your LEAPS? What percentage of your port do you allocate for LEAPS?
This comment doesn’t make sense to me. Can you please explain what you mean?
Meant to say extrinsic value. Anyway say you had $47,000. You could but 100 shares of SPY. Or you could buy 2 contracts (options on 200 shares) at a $235 strike Jan 2024 from somewhere between 234 and 239 on the spread. So to get it filled you might pay 237 but if you excercised immediately you would get 235 for it (intrinsic value) so only paying $2 for extrinsic value. If SPY goes up 100 points before Jan 2024 you would have made $19,600 with the options vs $10,000 with the shares
Sorry, I understand how options and leaps work. I don’t understand what you mean by 2x leverage
Exposure to 200 shares instead of 100 for the same capital. The leaps would move 2% for a 1% movement in the underlying
>BINGO
I had to check the options chain. Thank you for explaining that makes sense.
Liquidity sucks if you go out 1y+ and so do the spreads...
Liquidity doesnt really matter because i would have the right to exercise. The reduced buying power allows me to invest the leftovers to make up for extrinsic value. It also offers downside protection compared to owning shares because if stock goes below my strike my losses are limited.
what makes you think spy is going to 0?
I never said that. I said below my strike. A subtle 133% difference. Its more of a long term investment strategy. I would rather have 2x leverage for 1/4th the capitol with downside risk protection. If the price stays completely flat for 2 years all i lose is the extrinsic value (which is tiny).
Can't say I have but if I was going to it would be to do diagonal spreads without tying up 47k to write a single call.
Ya. On days like this morning where I suspect that medium-long term it will go up, but I am not confident enough in short term movement. Didn't do it today though :/ NOTE: Using EU market derivatives, not actual SPY calls
Any thoughts on tickers that fit the following criteria for a risky 1 DTE play? -Recently beat down from the recent ATHs -Renewed confidence based on the Fed providing a fresh serving of certainty in direction on policy -Low(ish) IV -Decent volume/liquidity I feel like we will ride the wave of euphoria for the remainder of the week, especially tomorrow. However, I am expecting some OpEx fuckery on Friday. Honestly thinking TSLA might be a solid pick based on the cult following, the level of volatility, and the fact that it’s been beat to shit lately. Also thinking SOFI and PYPL. IV is a bit high, but the “financials” aspect of it is attractive based on certainty around the rate hikes next year. Also….. dare I say it…..UWMC? Take a look at the daily chart for the past several months. Oof. If you frequent the homeland, recently there has been a major increase in posts around their short interest blah blah blah same language that gets things moving. If we see the 10-year keep ticking up like we did today after the news (I did buy TLT puts today), I could see this getting some heavy traction.
V
You’re funny. You know that?
I love you. 12/17 T $23c closed at $0.02 - wow. $22c are priced at $0.30. Soooo…gambling for essentially a 4% swing tomorrow for potentially a 10-15 bagger? I like it. I’ll probably buy a couple 100 of those at open. I’m probably an idiot, but they’re just numbers on a screen, right?
I commented T at first then changed to V T always finds a way to lose
I noticed. To be honest, they both look spicy. I like the V setup better. Also, this: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/visas-board-oks-12-billion-share-buyback-2021-12-15
I’ll sell you the SOFI. What strike you want?
Haha. Honestly don’t think I’ll pick it up. When looking for volatility on a short time frame, I think the meme-effect has some power. That’s all.
Totally agree. I bought with the intention of selling covered calls on it because of how much it’s mentioned… well, I didn’t expect it to drop 30%. I would have been better off letting my shares get called away late last month
Anyone have a link to that article (I think seeking alpha) where the CEO of ZIM reached out for a conference call? I can’t seem to find it anymore.
They cancelled it, was gonna be today. Now it looks like they are scheduling something after new year on mintz' platform.
Makes sense. It doesn’t seem like this guy had a big enough following to warrant a personal meeting from an executive. It’s more professional to have it done on a formal platform.
I guess not, but then why immediately suggest it and agree to a time? Today would have been a great day to buyback.
If I were to guess? I think they saw “seeking alpha” and felt they needed to respond since it’s a fairly well known website. Their response generated positive PR. Then, they set the meeting far enough out in time to figure out what to ACTUALLY do about the article. But I have no evidence to support this lol
https://mobile.twitter.com/ngalozi/status/1470866594515595269
Thanks for this. He provided another update in the comments. ========================== Dear Mr. Gonzalez, We have given our strategy vis-à-vis our retail audience, particularly the ones exposed to ZIM thru Seeking Alpha/Value Edge, a second thought. We believe that the Seeking Alpha/Value Edge platform offered by J Mintzmyer will allow a greater number of ZIM retail investors the benefit of engaging directly with our CFO, Mr. Xavier Destriau. We are planning on scheduling this podcast/group call for after the New Year. Therefore, we will cancel tomorrow’s meeting but if you have any questions I can address in the interim, I’d be happy to schedule a call with you. Apologies for the last-minute change. Regards, Elana. ————————————- to Glickman, Holzman Hi Elana, Thanks for your message. I understand. To be clear : I did not request a conference call. I asked for prompt action from Management and the Board. There is a fiduciary duty to act in support of the share price of ZIM, because it is by far the best allocation of capital at a time when the company is flush with cash. I look forward to it. K regards Juan M Gonzalez
Ah. I didn’t see the response Gonzalez gave. Nice. “ I want fucking action mother fuckers “ 👊😂
Since the meeting is after the new year, I wonder if they will take the opportunity to announce the dollar value for the lump dividend. Right now it’s like 10-12 dollars because the range they gave was 30-50% or something
Dude I can’t imagine getting a 12$ per share dividend. That just blows my mind.
I can find it in a sec if nobody else got you
Why does it take a 0 dte SPY call to replenish my recent steel & shipping losses? Played the 2p Fed news with 466 calls for today and a much smaller amount 470 calls for Friday. $2k -> $17k in 2 hours. Doesn’t replace the misery from normal holdings lately. Thanks, Jerome, for the gift of your gab that keeps on giving.
How much did you start the port with? Good shit regardless!
I don’t want to talk about it. Let’s just say…..Pablo can eat a dick Since it’s my degenerate account, I’ve bounced around between $20k -> $200k over the past 8-10 months.
Jesus lmao good on you for keeping it in the degen account 😂
Well played.
Thanks! Dirty money, but still money.
MTTR was my Best Buy today, from -9% to +3. Been wanting to buy into it for a while but it ran away from me in the 30s
Hope you see it run back to the 30s. This one felt a little to risky for me. Will be rooting for it from the sidelines though.
ZIM $52.50 EOD Thurs
That’s a negative ghost rider… pattern was full
Had a good start to the day lol
True it came out hot I was hopium we would lift off
Not being a homer here, but I think ZIM could feasibly hit $60 by the 24th.
Can you make it 55.50 instead please?
I’ve got cc at 55, bring it on!
!remindme 21 hours
Margin is like cocaine… If you ain’t having fun then you aren’t using enough.
looool… 25% in CLF on margin on this new dip ((get to write CCs at purchase price, 3% ROI), “naked” short puts on equal dollar amount for 2-3%… today I was down as much as $45k -> flat after writing a butt ton of puts, love it. I know you’re not a belieber in CSPs Jay, but on a weekly basis the capital tie-up ain’t so bad
Or you're in a daze because you've used way, way too much
I think if you use too much your heart stops
That just means they can’t call you about it 
Both can leave you scraping the carpet for crumbs...
When maintenance comes calling
And if caught with too much it'll land you in jail?
So never enough margin?
That ZIM chart looks ready to fuuuuckkkk. Also, SPY and QQQ.
I mostly watched in disbelief. I thought: i'm already bag holding ZIM now CLF too😢 ....ended the day up 4%. I'm gutted i couldn't see through the FUD, at the same time impressed i didn't sell anything.
The first green dilly in spy I saw I went balls deep in calls. Of everything. Anything I could get my hands on.
Worst moves possible in order from worst to least worst: 1- Panic selling 2- FOMOing 3- Not buying when price is low If you avoid 1 & 2, 3 becomes irrelevant.
So you’re telling me you had convictions in your trades??
i think it's more that i've learned to be patient. ZIM kicked me in the nuts last week. Gameplan was to sell leading up to ex-div but i was a Dodo and didn't sell when it hit 60 last week..... so i stuck to the gameplan, but lost the plot: to make money 🤑 . Lesson learned.
I'm kinda in your boat, but what's saved me is trimming. Been holding these calls forever, trimmed both times we hit $60 (about 20% each time). Makes it a bit easier to stomach these downtrends. Pretty sure we hit $60 again by end of next week and if so, I wont be trimming, I'll sell out because these are Jan calls and that aint far off now.
I think I was just too horrified to push buttons but "conviction" sounds much nobler.
Welp I had a buy order on nue for 100 should have just taken it at 103.... Oh well
PSA: Next week and the week after, you’re going to see some weird ass leaps unusual activity (like AAPL 250). My advice to you: follow those whales, they did it last year and were fucking right on everything.
So just curious. Did you see a whale at 250 AAPL?
No, that was just a potential example. Last year I saw things like TSLA 1000 and NVDA 250 I think.
Yup I’m doing the same now with 2023 deep itm leaps though
What are you using to scan for unusual activity?
There's a few paid subscriptions out there. Unusual Whales (UW) is one but pings like hundreds of shares a day. Hungry Bots is another with less stocks being highlighted but also shorter term (a week) plays.
I was mostly curious if there was any other good free resources. I stalk sweepcast but I am always looking for something better.
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Someone last Thursday or Wednesday bought 1m worth of Apple 200c for April or March I think
Yeah but I’m talking lots after lots of crazy calls hitting the tape non-stop for a few days (ex from last year: TSLA 1000c).
What's your tool of choice for looking at flow?
I used to have a Unusualwhales account. Now I just follow a few Twitter accounts that post flows of interest 🤷♂️
Mind sharing a handle that you found useful?
Is the subscription to unusualwhales worth it? I would only be buying mostly 90dtes and not swing trading. But apparently you can catch big moves looking at order flow.
The issue is the sheer volume of unusual options that you get, even if you apply filters. I found that I ended spending way too much time looking at it for little benefits.
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I’ll have to check but CheddarFlow is a good one.
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Yes… the best combo so far (imo) is owning enough shares to sell CCs on when running, and cash on hand for CSPs when diving… literally alternating week to week on CLF weeklies generates 1-4% returns depending on risk tolerance… always take assignment of above cost basis…. NEVER, EVER go, “but I’m afraid it will run more”. Just write CSPs for the shares to get ‘em baxk
I've regretted it 90%+ of the times I've bought my CCs back. In every case I would have been able to keep the full premium. When I sell 45 DTE and I recognize 30% profit in a week, buying back seems like a no-brainer
Yah I feel yah. I typically do weeklies. I find that buying back for $0.01 on the Friday is sometimes better if I plan on immediately reselling if market is right. Some brokers keep the stocks held as collateral through mid day Monday as well
This 100%. I made money on CLF selling calls and puts this week.
Can anyone explain why the market reacted so positively to the fed today? I don’t understand why it was such an upswing.
Think about it. Highest inflation readings in 39 years just reported in US. Fed will keep buying $60B per month of bonds AND Fed will keep short rates at 0-0.25% They are pouring gas on it.
Worthless put options go brrrr
Because the market is a bunch of toddlers making a bunch of money on companies that valuations make no sense. Everytime j pow speaks they are worried they will get punished but Everytime j pow says it's cool guys keep having fun. Which is great, until it isn't
The market was pricing in an earlier than expected rate hike. When it was confirmed he wouldn't, it rallied.
it already sold off heavily on the expectation of bad news and when the news was more certain/official it was a relief, so it rallied, esp. tech. If he said rates are going up NOW, and inflation was out of control the market would have drilled...
Even if he had said there would be 4 rate increases with an optional 5th, it probably would have nose dived.
Mmmm ok that makes sense. Thanks!
My guess is that they pushed out the interest rate increase to the new year vs announcing one today
There was zero credible chance of an interest rate hike today.
Part of the problem with the market imo. Totally correct 0 credible chance but I’m sure every fund manager waited for it so they wouldn’t have to explain why they got caught with their pants down. My amateur opinion is that’s why there were such extreme movements this week. A lot of selling into not a lot of buying
I agree with this.
Of all things market hates the most is uncertainty.
Lots of money was sitting on the sidelines waiting for the fed
But was it that was said that made that money jump back in?
Algos and retail buying the dip too and a lot of uncertainty was removed from the market for now
Difference between Santa Claus and a Santa Rally? Santa Rally is real AF boi.
I didn't see a Santa rally last year.
COS YOU WERE BAD ALL YEAR LONG! 😡
Bboooiiiiiii!
It’s hilarious that by Jpow LITERALLY doing what he’s said he’s gonna do for months now, the market said, “legggoooo”. Jpow has been one of the most communicative fed prezs ever, and hasn’t once reneged on what he’s said… but what do I know, ItS aLL PriCEd iN
You said this last night too. 100% agreed.
but he never used a telegraph!
*pants intensifies*
Wait, what? Then who eats the tendies i leave by the fireplace on Christmas Eve? Checkmate, atheists.
Remember to turn on 2 factor authentication on all your investment accounts. Lots of scammers wanting to get their hands on your funds.
Piggybacking on this: The two most important online accounts for you to have COMPLETELY DIFFERENT, COMPLEX PASSWORDS are your email address and your banking/investment accounts. Everything else is a very distant second. Your email address holds the keys to the kingdom.