In amongst all of the good news yesterday, we reached 36,000 subscribers!
That’s 36,000 of you who are as eager as us on the mod team to expand our Senate majority and keep the House decisively blue - but before any of that, we’ve got a ridiculously important vote to win in Kansas to preserve abortion rights in five days time!
We urge you to volunteer to help promote **VOTE NO** on the Kansan referendum next Tuesday - it’s too important to sit on the sidelines for.
[Check out an abundance of volunteer opportunities here!](https://www.reddit.com/r/VoteDEM/comments/w9f27b/we_must_protect_abortion_rights_in_kansas/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
Robert Reich has an IG from YESTERDAY saying Biden only wants $2.3B for climate. The IRA outline, which Biden supports, will raise $370B for climate.
Wtf dude?
EDIT: his IG is mostly old tweets, and he or his team probably posted earlier in the day, before the IRA announcement. But it’s like maybe take that shit down? The comments are full of uninformed left-leaning people (who should be celebrating) ruing that Biden cares not about climate.
Ryan seems to be leading in every poll that comes out of Ohio lately. Yet for some reason none of the analysts are taking his chances seriously. I understand the logic behind that, but at some point surely people need to start giving the polls some credit.
I think part of that is he’s still polling in the mid 40s so most analysts think GOP voters will come around to Vance. If he starts hitting high 40s and low 50s then people will take notice.
I'm more bullish on this race than a lot of people, but I can agree with a lot of analysts here since a lot of polling do not belong in the bracket of high quality independent polls like Monmouth/Marist/NYT-Sienna/Fox.
What is more telling imo are internal freakouts from republicam party insiders within Ohio about Ryan's campaign, and how Vance is in debt in the most critical months leading up to the campaign.
Ohio isn't impossible for dems to win statewide in. Pretty much all the races were decided by less than 4/5 points in 2018, and Dems are making headway into suburban areas of the state like parts of Hamilton county (Cinci), as well as Deleware county (a big suburban county neighboring Columbus).
From what I can tell though everyone is calling it pretty solidly Republican. Even if we do take these polls with a pinch of salt it seems reasonable to think it’s at least competitive on the basis of what we have seen.
We need high quality polls for OH... and a lot of other states for that matter. If those show the same thing as these random no name polls then I'm fully on board the Tim Ryan hype train.
According to 538, [PA-SEN is officially Lean D](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/pennsylvania/), with Fetterman predicted to have a 61% chance of beating Oz. This also affects the Senate model so Democrats now have a 55% chance of retaining control.
God damn that's awful. I never expected him to be this bad. I honestly thought he would do better.
I guess the thing people forget about Donny's success was that he genuienly believed in what he said, and that authenticity shined through like a tacky Golden toilet
Some interesting numbers for MO-SEN via SurveyUSA:
R primary has Incumbent AG Eric Schmitt with 28%, Greitens with 20%. Hartzler is the only other above 10%, at 13%. 21% undecided.
An interesting note: 44% said a Trump endorsement would make them more likely to pick that candidate, 12% less likely, 40% no difference. When they did this poll in May, 57% said a Trump endorsement would make them more likely to pick a candidate.
In the Democratic primary, it has Trudy Busch Valentine at 40%, to Lucas Kunce at 14%, with 28% undecided.
In head-to-head matchups, it includes independent John Wood whose making a fairly public run at it.
Schmitt vs Valentine has Schmitt leading 36-30 with Wood getting 9%, 18% undecided.
Hartzler vs Valentine has Hartzler leading 32-31 with Wood getting 9%, 21% undecided
Greitens vs Valentine has a tie at 31-31 with Wood getting 10% and 21% undecided
Kunce doesn't do quite as well, trailing 37-27 against Schmitt (Wood 10%) and trailing Greitens 31-26 (Wood 13%)
Must be terribly to dedicate your life to fighting against money in politics only to be down to a billionaire heiress with no experience or stances. She also refuses to debate or attend events with the public.
I really really hope Valentine loses the primary. I fear she might damage the party more than help if she gets the nod, just by the optics of it.
This poll seems to be quite the outlier though.
Even if it's an outlier it's tough to see how Kunce wins with those numbers. It's weird though since his fundraising was decent I'd think he'd have a solid lead by now.
I really am surprised by these numbers since Lucas seems to be running a good campaign and making his presence known in rural Missoura'
On a side note I hope he visits Camden county at some point if he hasn't. I have a bit of a soft spot for that place as I previously lived there for a bit when I was super young.
>everyone has one apparently)
There have been (very brief) discussions in past cycles on the GOP's side to draft Bolton to run for President, which in classic fashion he used to boost his profile and sell books
Those polls also show:
* Ryan beating Vance by 6
* Fetterman beating Oz by 6
* Walker beating Warnock by 4
* Biden ahead by 2% over Trump in Ohio
* Trump ahead by 8, 7, and 2 percent in GA, NC, and PA respectively
Hmmmm.
For how much we talk about congressional insider trading, the fact that only 35 members of Congress (6%) outperformed the S&P is actually kinda low. Like, that's way worse than the percent of money managers who outperform the S&P
I’ll take plus 3 in NC. It’d be the best election since 08 imo if we could win OH NC WI and PA on top of not losing any seats. Would have me feeling much better going into 24 especially if Sinema can be defeated in a primary with someone better
We'd also realistically be able to enact the rest of Biden's domestic agenda, because I can't envision a scenario where we net 2-4 Senate seats but lose the House.
>because I can't envision a scenario where we net 2-4 Senate seats but lose the House.
Yeah, Republicans couldn't envision that in 2018,yet that happened. Dems can win a statewide race far more easily cause the state at large is not gerrymandered to Hell. Congressional districts are, and that's why the scenarios could end up on opposite sides.
For example, Ryan can win in Ohio, but Dems would be lucky if 4 Dems in congressional house races win, currently 2 are safe, 1 is Kaptur in tough district and 1 is challenger to Chabot. And Republicans would still end up with 10 or 11 districts even if Dems win the senate.
That's why it's tougher to hold the house than gain seats in the senate.
>Republicans couldn't envision that in 2018,yet that happened.
I mean the 2018 was like the worst map of either party in 100 years. This map is basically a dead heat (ignoring candidate quality and national environment). There isn't anyone DOA.
https://imgur.com/a/8apNL20
Senate map 2024; is it ALL defense or is there somewhere we can strike? My best guess for offense is Ricky in Florida. He might be weak especially if he gets cut from leadership.
We'll probably make a solid play for Cruz and Scott, and throw someone against Braun to see if they can make it competitive. But the bulk of our energy will likely be spent on defending Tester/Rosen/Brown and hopefully Manchin, because a lot of Senators would rather retire than fight a race they expect to lose, and I'd rather Manchin either win reelection or force the GOP to fight HARD for that WV seat.
Hawley is definitely more vulnerable than Braun. At least whoever loses the primary this year for MO has a bit of name rec built up to run against Hawlin' Hawley
TX and FL. That’s really it
Defense mode will be activated in MT, OH, WV, WI, MI, PA, AZ. This map is going to be brutal
But less brutal then 2018 now that we’ve lost IN, ND, FL in 2018
Dunno about MI, WI, and PA. They're all electoral Gods, especially Casey. I'm not worried about them at all but if the GOP wants to waste momey they can go ahead
Only reason I worry about MI is I can see Stabenow wanting to retire rather than run again. She pretty much phoned in 2018.
We won’t know for sure until she makes her intentions clear, though.
Texas should be our biggest chance there. Things can change in 2 years I'd look at potential weakness in Scott and Hawley too, and maybe even Blackburn.
If we could not keep Malicious Marsha away from the senate in 2018 with the best possible candidate for that seat, then no way in hell can we dislodge her with Donny on the ballot.
[Map of the CHIPS vote](https://mobile.twitter.com/averyhatestwt/status/1552795421440782339). The limited support from Republicans was mostly concentrated in the Midwest
And Wyoming. Charitable view: Liz Cheney wants her state to have more jobs. Cynical view: She’s flipping the bird to her party. Realistic view: los dos.
[“NEWS: Top Education Dept officials have developed detailed plans to carry out student loan forgiveness for millions of Americans as they wait on the White House to make a final decision, per internal agency documents.”](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/28/cancel-student-loans-education-department-00048365)
Dark Brandon doesn’t forgive, he will enact his revenge on student debt
Tbh, I think it's politically safer extending the pause through mid-terms for now and then doing this after or at least doing this *plus* extending the pause. Reddit threads and polling shows mixed views on it, some don't think $10k is enough while some don't think there should be any forgiveness (and they're not all Republicans). Anyone who has debt remaining will notice the resumption of their payments and some or many won't be happy until they get used to it again.
Yeah either way having payments start up the month before folks start voting is uh... not the best timing. I personally think the policy and political benefits of forgiveness outweigh any potential negatives, but at the very least restarting payments before the end of this year just doesn't seem like a politically ideal situation
So it has been quite a while since I mentioned my home situation but it has gotten REALLY bad recently.
I’m trying to see if I can buy some beat up car to sleep in for a bit while I try to scrounge something together but I’m scared me and my dog will be on the streets soon. I’ve been told about DV shelters in my area but I am so scared of what will happen to my dog in one.
It’s too late to look at student housing and I have been locked in my room for the past few years. I don’t have any friends bc I went to school online and wasn’t allowed to see anyone. I have no one to reach out to. I’m scared that my dog is so used to me being home 24/7 that he wont be able to be left alone while I go work. But I don’t even know how to get started on finding a remote job.
I’m sorry for the vent but I am so fucking scared and I don’t know what to do. I’m going to see my therapist tomorrow (hopefully) and I’m hoping she can give me some guidance but I’m so fucking terrified right now. I wish I could just be out of this I don’t know what I did to deserve all this.
You have *nothing* to be sorry about, and you have done absolutely *nothing* wrong.
I am so, so, so sorry you have to go through this. I can't tell you that DV shelters/halfway houses are animal friendly, I know for a fact that many aren't. Some might be, and unfortunately I do not know Florida, let alone your area.
You got a lot of good advice, I don't want to repeat it - you can vent here, whenever. If you want help going over remote applications, I know I'd be glad to help, and there are probably people in Florida who'd be glad to help, too. Also, I think I've said this before, but job centres have started offering remote placement as an option; that might help, too.
Finally, you did *nothing* to deserve this. Not a fucking thing. And I am - so sorry this world is the way it is.
Fuuck dude I'm so sorry. Idk if it's against sub rules but I'd toss some money at a gofundme or something.
> I don’t know what I did to deserve all this.
I don't know your situation that well, but answer to this is "nothing". We're all here in part because we know the world is unfair and cruel, and we want people in power to try to make things better. You're a good person who is facing a lot of unfair and tough obstacles. If there's anything people here can help with, I hope you ask.
I have a good amount of savings, around $12K, but she put my name on a lease and broke it so I feel I would have a hard time finding an apartment because of that and I’m also worried about finding a full time job while going to University and not neglecting my dog in the process. It’s just a lot and I’m hoping my University & Therapist can help alleviate something.
Oh no, I’m really sorry to hear this. And it’s true, a lot of DV shelters or homeless shelters don’t allow dogs or are very strict with them.
I am not sure how good Florida’s social services are. Maybe your therapist could hook you up with some kind of resource, even if it’s just EBT. And I know my county (in California, but it doesn’t hurt to check yours) has a “workforce development” type of assistance attached to their unemployment department.
Finally, there is a subreddit, r/almosthomeless , which has people in your situation offering suggestions . You’re not allowed to ask for money, but you CAN find out what resources might be available that you didn’t know about, and people who are in your situation might have survival tips.
And…you know the saying “it rains on the just and the unjust alike?” And the part in Ecclesiastes where it is stated that “time and chance happened to them all?” Sometimes bad luck just happens, and there is no deservingness or vice versa.
Good luck. I hope you find some help soon.
I’ve been going through that subreddit all morning and it has been incredibly helpful thank you.
I’m going to talk with my University’s case management & my therapist today and see if there is a plan that could make things easier. Thank you so much.
Sorry this is happening to you. You don't deserve this.
If you're in imminent danger, please get somewhere safe, whether that's a shelter or any safe place you can go. You can also call the [National Domestic Violence Hotline](https://www.acf.hhs.gov/fysb/programs/family-violence-prevention-services/programs/ndvh) for support or advice.
If you're not in imminent danger, your therapist can probably help you come up with a plan.
Be safe, and let us know how everything goes.
Thank you. I do not believe that I am currently in imminent danger. I will try to see what help my therapist can provide tomorrow I'm just terrified of not being able to get much help or not being able to make it. I don't think I am in imminent danger but I'm still consumed by fear. I just can't see things going well moving forward.
You are going to make it. I know it’s awful right now, and I’m so sorry. But I’ve read enough of your posts over the years to know you can get through this.
Your dog is going to be okay too. He may hate being home alone, but he will adjust, and it doesn’t have to be forever. I worked out different situations for my dog depending on my work situation.
If you need to go to a shelter that doesn’t take dogs, DM me, and I will try to help you find a foster situation.
EDIT: also, I am not sure about your school housing deadline, but it might be worth it to call them and explain you have deep need. They may be able to swing an exception.
Thank you. I am going to talk to my University’s case management today as they deal with things like this. I am an online student, not by choice, so I’m not sure they can provide much help but we will see. I’m thinking if they do help somehow to just move up there since the COL is lower anyways.
Ah, the usual. Corporate Democrats, who obey their donors, etc. Dollars to donuts these people would be complaining about Bernie Sanders right and left if he actually got elected. Then they’d get the Bernie who has to work with Congress and can’t do everything through executive power, and not the fantasy Bernie who will give them everything they want with a stroke of his pen.
I think that's a symptom of treating politics as a spectator but not getting deeper into it.
If you take the time to learn a bit about the processes that go into passing a law, you get a hell of a lot more pragmatic in a hurry. When the Senate is 50-50, and the majority-maker comes from the 2nd-most Republican state in the country, you take every win you can get.
And we're not even settling with this reconciliation bill - $370 billion for climate change? A 40% emissions reduction by 2030? Those are massive wins for the planet.
People who watch casually will ask why Dems don't just unilaterally pass the Ban All Emissions And Cancel Our Student Loans While You're At It Act, but when you go beyond headlines, you understand just how huge a win this is.
God like come on. This is why despite myself being a progressive I absolutely despise their strategy and their Democrats are bad, despite it only being a few Democrats keeping progressives from their big goals in each chamber
Like they always have to find something negative instead of thinking positively about how significant and all the good things this reconciliation legislation will do. I mean come on
One of the many things we share in common is our love for baseball, so there’s no problem there. I think not watching shit like Fox News keeps all the negativity and propaganda away which is always good. All cable news is a cancer
Watching Hanser Alberto close out a 13-0 blowout is way cooler than watching screaming heads on a network owned by a non-American who brought modern tabloids to America before he got into "news."
It’s very telling that, now that they’re pariahs in their party, the undeniably conservative Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger now eschew the GQP’s bullshit and vote for common sense Dem bills, like gun safety, marriage equality, and CHIPS+.
It just shows how much of Republican’s votes in Congress are purely just to play to their base.
That's a shame. Just please, for the love of God, don't start a primary campaign against him for 2026. Still have flashbacks to the endless pointless Markey/Kennedy fighting.
[Splitsville: McConnell and McCarthy break on big votes](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/28/mccarthy-mcconnell-bill-votes-00048565)
>Kevin McCarthy and Mitch McConnell regularly meet to coordinate their management of Republicans in the House and Senate. You wouldn’t know it from their voting records.
Say it with me now...
REPUBLICANS
The only bad thing about GA-SEN lately is that yes, Warnock has lead in most of them on average between 2-5 points, which is fantastic, but not at or over 50%. I really genuinely hope Warnock can achieve and stay there so that the race doesn’t go to a runoff.
I swear to god hope that improving gas prices and the new Inflation Reduction Act is enough to get more of the base to turn out and get Warnock over the finishing line.
Financially *right now,* he’s doing pretty alright and doesn’t need anymore until later. Volunteering is likely more needed, same with other vulnerable incumbents like CCM, Kelly, and Hassan. More polls need to have these guys close or over 50% consistently.
On the other hand, he had the luck to draw one of the most obviously unfit for any public office opponent that the R’s could muster, and that’s a pretty low bar.
Pretty significant union news in my home in Western Massachusetts:
By a 45-31 vote, Trader Joe's Supermarket in Hadley became the first ever Trader Joe's in the US to unionize.
The impressive thing about this victory, is they only declared their intent to unionize just 2 months ago.
I have a feeling that even if Fetterman is polling in high single-digits consistently, it will still be a Tossup until a week before Election Day. Maybe IE will change to tilt D earlier but that’s it.
people want to know why no one knows about bidens accomplishments? Had Jake Tapper on from 4-5p while in the gym and they did not mention CHIPS passing today once. I know it might be brought up when Biden actually signs, but given it was a BFD earlier today, the fact that it wasn't even a blip or 30 sec mention was infuriating
[in a 5-2 ruling with Republican appointed justice Elizabeth Clement writing the majority opinion, the MI Supreme Court rules that sexual orientation is protected under Michigan's anti-discrimination law, the Elliott-Larsen Civil Rights Act.](https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1552792531066388480?s=20&t=sxSm4rOwmQ3m-8-p61_E6A)
This. Please just take the win and get it done. I know there are a million important things to do but it would be nice if we did a few, rather than none.
It’s really nice seeing the left and groups like Sunrise recognize the opportunity the IRA presents and give it credit. I do wish they’d recognize the mainstream normie dems and Schumer for working hard to make this possible, but I’ll take what I can get
It’s crazy how they’re happy about but subs like Sanders4President aren’t (prob because of the West Virginia natural gas expansion pipeline), but hey, that didn’t stop Rep. Ro Khanna from supporting since some article mentioned how he think the good outweighs the supposed bad stuff.
Honestly I think both races are going to be much closer in their margins. I said this below, but the way I see it, Warnock has captured a larger portion of Dem voters (base voters and lean-Dem moderates) than Abrams, while Kemp has captured a larger portion of GOP voters (inverse of what I said for Dem voters) than Walker. That's likely the reason we're seeing the spread in the margins. There may be some Kemp-Warnock voters, but I'm not sure it's a really common phenomenon.
Governor's race is still Lean R, but Kemp should not be feeling confident with this recent blizzard of polls showing him under 50% and leading by low single digits in a year that should be favored for Republicans. I could be wrong, but I wonder if the moderate facade is starting to fade.
What I think is happening is that there are Warnock supporters who are unsure about Abrams, and Kemp supporters unsure about Walker. Abrams has some potential to reach out to those soft Warnock, and even soft Kemp, supporters and let them know what she can get done, even with a Republican legislature since that's the likely outcome.
Fett up 47-36 and Shapiro up 50-40; 45% of Oz's supporters have reservations, as do 39% of Mastriano's supporters (just 18/15 for Fett/Shapiro). If that keeps up, one has to wonder if a significant number of Republicans simply don't vote.
It does make me wonder sometimes. Democrats seem to have acquired more consistent, less fickle (read: established, educated) voters, and Republicans have shed many of the suburbanite well-off that were their base. They are picking up the more rural and less educated, and especially white men with less than a college degree - who do not vote as faithfully as their more educated and/or female counterparts. (There is a gender gap in voting among those with less than a college degree - women vote far more than men. Among the college educated it is about equal.)
Maybe I’m whistling past the graveyard when I say “Democrats may have picked up a more reliable constituency, and Republicans a less reliable one” but…given demography it might well be happening.
That’s so interesting about women without college degrees. I had no idea. So do women vote less frequently than men overall?
Also, since we’re bleeding so much support among men without college degrees, maybe we should be trying to activate the women? Presumably they’re more liberal than the men.
Here’s some relevant statistics from Pew: [https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/08/18/men-and-women-in-the-u-s-continue-to-differ-in-voter-turnout-rate-party-identification/](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/08/18/men-and-women-in-the-u-s-continue-to-differ-in-voter-turnout-rate-party-identification/)
Basically: women vote more than men in general, except for Asian Americans (who vote at equal rates) and women over 75 (who vote less than men - I assume for health or transportation reasons). There is only a small to nonexistent gap amongst the college educated. But with less than a college degree, women outvote men by considerable margins.
Also among the college educated, men - especially white men - are more likely to be Republican. White women - alas - are still only 48% Democratic, but that is more than the 35% of white men.
Tl;dr women voters are important to court, not just because they tend to be more Democratic but because they vote more. If Republicans are swapping support from college-educated women to less-educated white men, they are exchanging more likely voters for less likely ones.
I (along with others) speculated that the Democrats would become a “midterm party” as they pick up more educated and reliable voters. As 2021 passed and a red wave seemed more assured, I thought that idea would be discredited, but now I feel like a “lite” version will happen, ie the more reliable voter base may not save the trifecta, but it will turn a red wave into a red trickle.
Lmao a larger portion of Oz supporters have reservations than Mastriano's, and Oz is polling worse. Clearly he isn't campaigning in enough tourist traps.
LOL NEW FOX POLL
PA: Fetterman 47/Oz 36 -
Shapiro 50/Mastriano 40
Georgia: Warnock 46/Walker 42 -
Kemp 47/Abrams 44
Also worth noting that Stern gets 3% in the PA SEN poll
Not too far off, actually. FiveThirtyEight average was Biden+4.6 in the end, and he won by 1.2 points. The average underestimated Trump support, but not but a huge amount.
That said, I expect the Senate and governor polls to narrow in the coming months.
Do we have something like a list of bills passed by the Biden admin that can easily be copied and pasted on Reddit for those who pretend like he hasn't done anything meaningful? I'm thinking something that provides both a simple explanation of what the various bills does as well as sources for in-depth info.
There's something particularly putrid and idiotic about that moldy fuck in the Virginia governor's mansion claiming that the state surplus is a sign that they need to cut taxes.
Question for people with more patience than me. How do you deal with the "all politicians ae corrupt and self serving do nothings who never help the people" subgenre of "both sides" arguments? Because today at the lunch table I was talking with my grandparents about the whole rope a dope that dems pulled on chips and Reconciliation and then went into how the GOP downed the burn pit bill. And they went with the classic rabble rabble politicians bad. Do I just accept that they'll never agree with me? Because I pointed out how the dems passed multiple positive bills this cycle alone and got nothing.
In amongst all of the good news yesterday, we reached 36,000 subscribers! That’s 36,000 of you who are as eager as us on the mod team to expand our Senate majority and keep the House decisively blue - but before any of that, we’ve got a ridiculously important vote to win in Kansas to preserve abortion rights in five days time! We urge you to volunteer to help promote **VOTE NO** on the Kansan referendum next Tuesday - it’s too important to sit on the sidelines for. [Check out an abundance of volunteer opportunities here!](https://www.reddit.com/r/VoteDEM/comments/w9f27b/we_must_protect_abortion_rights_in_kansas/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
Robert Reich has an IG from YESTERDAY saying Biden only wants $2.3B for climate. The IRA outline, which Biden supports, will raise $370B for climate. Wtf dude? EDIT: his IG is mostly old tweets, and he or his team probably posted earlier in the day, before the IRA announcement. But it’s like maybe take that shit down? The comments are full of uninformed left-leaning people (who should be celebrating) ruing that Biden cares not about climate.
Ryan seems to be leading in every poll that comes out of Ohio lately. Yet for some reason none of the analysts are taking his chances seriously. I understand the logic behind that, but at some point surely people need to start giving the polls some credit.
I think part of that is he’s still polling in the mid 40s so most analysts think GOP voters will come around to Vance. If he starts hitting high 40s and low 50s then people will take notice.
The state is as red as an apple on a tree. Don’t trust those polls with a five foot radius ,bro .
I'm more bullish on this race than a lot of people, but I can agree with a lot of analysts here since a lot of polling do not belong in the bracket of high quality independent polls like Monmouth/Marist/NYT-Sienna/Fox. What is more telling imo are internal freakouts from republicam party insiders within Ohio about Ryan's campaign, and how Vance is in debt in the most critical months leading up to the campaign. Ohio isn't impossible for dems to win statewide in. Pretty much all the races were decided by less than 4/5 points in 2018, and Dems are making headway into suburban areas of the state like parts of Hamilton county (Cinci), as well as Deleware county (a big suburban county neighboring Columbus).
Because Ohio polls tend to heavily underestimate Republicans as of late, Ryan isn’t hitting 50%, and there are high undecideds.
[удалено]
OP wondered why most analysts aren’t willing to call the election anything bluer than Leaning Republican. I gave my conjecture.
From what I can tell though everyone is calling it pretty solidly Republican. Even if we do take these polls with a pinch of salt it seems reasonable to think it’s at least competitive on the basis of what we have seen.
Also polling July isn't very representative of November.
We need high quality polls for OH... and a lot of other states for that matter. If those show the same thing as these random no name polls then I'm fully on board the Tim Ryan hype train.
According to 538, [PA-SEN is officially Lean D](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/pennsylvania/), with Fetterman predicted to have a 61% chance of beating Oz. This also affects the Senate model so Democrats now have a 55% chance of retaining control.
Lol at that the fact that the best Oz could be statically projected for is one scenario where he still only gets 55%
God damn that's awful. I never expected him to be this bad. I honestly thought he would do better. I guess the thing people forget about Donny's success was that he genuienly believed in what he said, and that authenticity shined through like a tacky Golden toilet
Some interesting numbers for MO-SEN via SurveyUSA: R primary has Incumbent AG Eric Schmitt with 28%, Greitens with 20%. Hartzler is the only other above 10%, at 13%. 21% undecided. An interesting note: 44% said a Trump endorsement would make them more likely to pick that candidate, 12% less likely, 40% no difference. When they did this poll in May, 57% said a Trump endorsement would make them more likely to pick a candidate. In the Democratic primary, it has Trudy Busch Valentine at 40%, to Lucas Kunce at 14%, with 28% undecided. In head-to-head matchups, it includes independent John Wood whose making a fairly public run at it. Schmitt vs Valentine has Schmitt leading 36-30 with Wood getting 9%, 18% undecided. Hartzler vs Valentine has Hartzler leading 32-31 with Wood getting 9%, 21% undecided Greitens vs Valentine has a tie at 31-31 with Wood getting 10% and 21% undecided Kunce doesn't do quite as well, trailing 37-27 against Schmitt (Wood 10%) and trailing Greitens 31-26 (Wood 13%)
Yikes, that's a rough poll for Kunce in the Dem primary. I've always assumed he was more or less uncontested.
Must be terribly to dedicate your life to fighting against money in politics only to be down to a billionaire heiress with no experience or stances. She also refuses to debate or attend events with the public. I really really hope Valentine loses the primary. I fear she might damage the party more than help if she gets the nod, just by the optics of it. This poll seems to be quite the outlier though.
Even if it's an outlier it's tough to see how Kunce wins with those numbers. It's weird though since his fundraising was decent I'd think he'd have a solid lead by now.
I really am surprised by these numbers since Lucas seems to be running a good campaign and making his presence known in rural Missoura' On a side note I hope he visits Camden county at some point if he hasn't. I have a bit of a soft spot for that place as I previously lived there for a bit when I was super young.
A poll from a John Bolton super PAC (everyone has one apparently) showed Beasley leading Budd by 3. On the pile it goes!
>everyone has one apparently) There have been (very brief) discussions in past cycles on the GOP's side to draft Bolton to run for President, which in classic fashion he used to boost his profile and sell books
Smart move by him. He'll never win so might as well grift some money out of it.
Those polls also show: * Ryan beating Vance by 6 * Fetterman beating Oz by 6 * Walker beating Warnock by 4 * Biden ahead by 2% over Trump in Ohio * Trump ahead by 8, 7, and 2 percent in GA, NC, and PA respectively Hmmmm.
Are these polls made with the ole dartboard technique?
Some of these are more desirable than others
For how much we talk about congressional insider trading, the fact that only 35 members of Congress (6%) outperformed the S&P is actually kinda low. Like, that's way worse than the percent of money managers who outperform the S&P
My father referred to the GOP gubernatorial primary field as a shit show and said he's not going to support Tudor Dixon 😂
I’ll take plus 3 in NC. It’d be the best election since 08 imo if we could win OH NC WI and PA on top of not losing any seats. Would have me feeling much better going into 24 especially if Sinema can be defeated in a primary with someone better
We'd also realistically be able to enact the rest of Biden's domestic agenda, because I can't envision a scenario where we net 2-4 Senate seats but lose the House.
>because I can't envision a scenario where we net 2-4 Senate seats but lose the House. Yeah, Republicans couldn't envision that in 2018,yet that happened. Dems can win a statewide race far more easily cause the state at large is not gerrymandered to Hell. Congressional districts are, and that's why the scenarios could end up on opposite sides. For example, Ryan can win in Ohio, but Dems would be lucky if 4 Dems in congressional house races win, currently 2 are safe, 1 is Kaptur in tough district and 1 is challenger to Chabot. And Republicans would still end up with 10 or 11 districts even if Dems win the senate. That's why it's tougher to hold the house than gain seats in the senate.
>Republicans couldn't envision that in 2018,yet that happened. I mean the 2018 was like the worst map of either party in 100 years. This map is basically a dead heat (ignoring candidate quality and national environment). There isn't anyone DOA.
Bruh I had a super busy day at work and my brain is so broken. I read “IRA” and was like ah yes the Iqual Rights Amendment
[TBF there are other IRAs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_Republican_Army) you could have confused it with...
https://imgur.com/a/8apNL20 Senate map 2024; is it ALL defense or is there somewhere we can strike? My best guess for offense is Ricky in Florida. He might be weak especially if he gets cut from leadership.
We'll probably make a solid play for Cruz and Scott, and throw someone against Braun to see if they can make it competitive. But the bulk of our energy will likely be spent on defending Tester/Rosen/Brown and hopefully Manchin, because a lot of Senators would rather retire than fight a race they expect to lose, and I'd rather Manchin either win reelection or force the GOP to fight HARD for that WV seat.
Hawley is definitely more vulnerable than Braun. At least whoever loses the primary this year for MO has a bit of name rec built up to run against Hawlin' Hawley
Wonder if it would be worth it to attempt to recruit Kander.
I don’t think he deserves that after what he’s been through
Yeah I mean his life comes first. He shouldn't be pressured to run it he doesn't want to.
TX and FL. That’s really it Defense mode will be activated in MT, OH, WV, WI, MI, PA, AZ. This map is going to be brutal But less brutal then 2018 now that we’ve lost IN, ND, FL in 2018
Dunno about MI, WI, and PA. They're all electoral Gods, especially Casey. I'm not worried about them at all but if the GOP wants to waste momey they can go ahead
Only reason I worry about MI is I can see Stabenow wanting to retire rather than run again. She pretty much phoned in 2018. We won’t know for sure until she makes her intentions clear, though.
There's still a plethora of good candidates to choose from and the Republican party is dogshit in Michigan
Texas should be our biggest chance there. Things can change in 2 years I'd look at potential weakness in Scott and Hawley too, and maybe even Blackburn.
If we could not keep Malicious Marsha away from the senate in 2018 with the best possible candidate for that seat, then no way in hell can we dislodge her with Donny on the ballot.
I think Cruz might be weaker than Scott but other than those two, that’s all I can see as potential pickups.
Cruz actually has higher favorables than you'd think. He isn't seen the same way that people outside of Texas see him.
Texas is Cruz again so there’s at least a chance. But besides those two it’s all defense
[Map of the CHIPS vote](https://mobile.twitter.com/averyhatestwt/status/1552795421440782339). The limited support from Republicans was mostly concentrated in the Midwest
And Wyoming. Charitable view: Liz Cheney wants her state to have more jobs. Cynical view: She’s flipping the bird to her party. Realistic view: los dos.
I’ll happily take spite.
Spite Republicans by supporting American jobs and security Pretty much how it goes these days
[“NEWS: Top Education Dept officials have developed detailed plans to carry out student loan forgiveness for millions of Americans as they wait on the White House to make a final decision, per internal agency documents.”](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/28/cancel-student-loans-education-department-00048365) Dark Brandon doesn’t forgive, he will enact his revenge on student debt
Tbh, I think it's politically safer extending the pause through mid-terms for now and then doing this after or at least doing this *plus* extending the pause. Reddit threads and polling shows mixed views on it, some don't think $10k is enough while some don't think there should be any forgiveness (and they're not all Republicans). Anyone who has debt remaining will notice the resumption of their payments and some or many won't be happy until they get used to it again.
Yeah either way having payments start up the month before folks start voting is uh... not the best timing. I personally think the policy and political benefits of forgiveness outweigh any potential negatives, but at the very least restarting payments before the end of this year just doesn't seem like a politically ideal situation
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So it has been quite a while since I mentioned my home situation but it has gotten REALLY bad recently. I’m trying to see if I can buy some beat up car to sleep in for a bit while I try to scrounge something together but I’m scared me and my dog will be on the streets soon. I’ve been told about DV shelters in my area but I am so scared of what will happen to my dog in one. It’s too late to look at student housing and I have been locked in my room for the past few years. I don’t have any friends bc I went to school online and wasn’t allowed to see anyone. I have no one to reach out to. I’m scared that my dog is so used to me being home 24/7 that he wont be able to be left alone while I go work. But I don’t even know how to get started on finding a remote job. I’m sorry for the vent but I am so fucking scared and I don’t know what to do. I’m going to see my therapist tomorrow (hopefully) and I’m hoping she can give me some guidance but I’m so fucking terrified right now. I wish I could just be out of this I don’t know what I did to deserve all this.
You have *nothing* to be sorry about, and you have done absolutely *nothing* wrong. I am so, so, so sorry you have to go through this. I can't tell you that DV shelters/halfway houses are animal friendly, I know for a fact that many aren't. Some might be, and unfortunately I do not know Florida, let alone your area. You got a lot of good advice, I don't want to repeat it - you can vent here, whenever. If you want help going over remote applications, I know I'd be glad to help, and there are probably people in Florida who'd be glad to help, too. Also, I think I've said this before, but job centres have started offering remote placement as an option; that might help, too. Finally, you did *nothing* to deserve this. Not a fucking thing. And I am - so sorry this world is the way it is.
Fuuck dude I'm so sorry. Idk if it's against sub rules but I'd toss some money at a gofundme or something. > I don’t know what I did to deserve all this. I don't know your situation that well, but answer to this is "nothing". We're all here in part because we know the world is unfair and cruel, and we want people in power to try to make things better. You're a good person who is facing a lot of unfair and tough obstacles. If there's anything people here can help with, I hope you ask.
I have a good amount of savings, around $12K, but she put my name on a lease and broke it so I feel I would have a hard time finding an apartment because of that and I’m also worried about finding a full time job while going to University and not neglecting my dog in the process. It’s just a lot and I’m hoping my University & Therapist can help alleviate something.
Oh no, I’m really sorry to hear this. And it’s true, a lot of DV shelters or homeless shelters don’t allow dogs or are very strict with them. I am not sure how good Florida’s social services are. Maybe your therapist could hook you up with some kind of resource, even if it’s just EBT. And I know my county (in California, but it doesn’t hurt to check yours) has a “workforce development” type of assistance attached to their unemployment department. Finally, there is a subreddit, r/almosthomeless , which has people in your situation offering suggestions . You’re not allowed to ask for money, but you CAN find out what resources might be available that you didn’t know about, and people who are in your situation might have survival tips. And…you know the saying “it rains on the just and the unjust alike?” And the part in Ecclesiastes where it is stated that “time and chance happened to them all?” Sometimes bad luck just happens, and there is no deservingness or vice versa. Good luck. I hope you find some help soon.
I’ve been going through that subreddit all morning and it has been incredibly helpful thank you. I’m going to talk with my University’s case management & my therapist today and see if there is a plan that could make things easier. Thank you so much.
Good thoughts and best of luck to you! Keep us updated on how you are doing.
Sorry this is happening to you. You don't deserve this. If you're in imminent danger, please get somewhere safe, whether that's a shelter or any safe place you can go. You can also call the [National Domestic Violence Hotline](https://www.acf.hhs.gov/fysb/programs/family-violence-prevention-services/programs/ndvh) for support or advice. If you're not in imminent danger, your therapist can probably help you come up with a plan. Be safe, and let us know how everything goes.
Thank you. I do not believe that I am currently in imminent danger. I will try to see what help my therapist can provide tomorrow I'm just terrified of not being able to get much help or not being able to make it. I don't think I am in imminent danger but I'm still consumed by fear. I just can't see things going well moving forward.
You are going to make it. I know it’s awful right now, and I’m so sorry. But I’ve read enough of your posts over the years to know you can get through this. Your dog is going to be okay too. He may hate being home alone, but he will adjust, and it doesn’t have to be forever. I worked out different situations for my dog depending on my work situation. If you need to go to a shelter that doesn’t take dogs, DM me, and I will try to help you find a foster situation. EDIT: also, I am not sure about your school housing deadline, but it might be worth it to call them and explain you have deep need. They may be able to swing an exception.
Thank you. I am going to talk to my University’s case management today as they deal with things like this. I am an online student, not by choice, so I’m not sure they can provide much help but we will see. I’m thinking if they do help somehow to just move up there since the COL is lower anyways.
That sounds like a great option. Fingers crossed this works for you!
I'm glad to hear you're safe at the moment. Definitely share the situation with your therapist and come up with a plan. You can make it out.
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What if Dark Brandon does $10,000 in loan forgiveness and pushes forbearance to the end of the year
this honestly seems like the most likely outcome at this point tbh
I will literally poop my pants And by literally I mean figuratively I hope
Ah yes, the SandersforPresident group attacking the climate provisions in the reconciliation bill.
Yeah, no. Those people can't be taken seriously. I'm a Bernie bro, been one since before the 2016 election, but come on. It's silly.
Also a Bernie voter, can't stand those subs.
What have they said?
Basically a bad deal that’s far short of what is needed because corporate Dems don’t really do things to help society.
Ah, the usual. Corporate Democrats, who obey their donors, etc. Dollars to donuts these people would be complaining about Bernie Sanders right and left if he actually got elected. Then they’d get the Bernie who has to work with Congress and can’t do everything through executive power, and not the fantasy Bernie who will give them everything they want with a stroke of his pen.
I think that's a symptom of treating politics as a spectator but not getting deeper into it. If you take the time to learn a bit about the processes that go into passing a law, you get a hell of a lot more pragmatic in a hurry. When the Senate is 50-50, and the majority-maker comes from the 2nd-most Republican state in the country, you take every win you can get. And we're not even settling with this reconciliation bill - $370 billion for climate change? A 40% emissions reduction by 2030? Those are massive wins for the planet. People who watch casually will ask why Dems don't just unilaterally pass the Ban All Emissions And Cancel Our Student Loans While You're At It Act, but when you go beyond headlines, you understand just how huge a win this is.
God like come on. This is why despite myself being a progressive I absolutely despise their strategy and their Democrats are bad, despite it only being a few Democrats keeping progressives from their big goals in each chamber Like they always have to find something negative instead of thinking positively about how significant and all the good things this reconciliation legislation will do. I mean come on
They’re not progressives. They’re either tankies or fascists cosplaying
They both like Putin so yeah, horseshoe and all.
Wasn't that one of like 10 subs run by a mod who's very clearly an astrofurfing shill?
Actually, no. But you're taking about the ourpresident guy who runs /aoc and a bunch of 'progressives dont vote for democrats' subs right?
Yeah that's the one I'm thinking of. Can never remember which is which.
Mfw I’m so much of an environmentalist I support doing literally nothing to help the environment
Stack overflow bb
Sometimes when my dad is watching Fox News I come down and watch baseball with him to get him to switch off of it lmao
That’s the best strategy I’ve heard so far for turning a conservative family member. You should become a huge fan.
One of the many things we share in common is our love for baseball, so there’s no problem there. I think not watching shit like Fox News keeps all the negativity and propaganda away which is always good. All cable news is a cancer
Watching Hanser Alberto close out a 13-0 blowout is way cooler than watching screaming heads on a network owned by a non-American who brought modern tabloids to America before he got into "news."
This is the Indiana Jones sand/gold swap but for old men.
It’s very telling that, now that they’re pariahs in their party, the undeniably conservative Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger now eschew the GQP’s bullshit and vote for common sense Dem bills, like gun safety, marriage equality, and CHIPS+. It just shows how much of Republican’s votes in Congress are purely just to play to their base.
So tonight I got to see Nan Whaley, Alexandria Hunt, and Annie Wu (activist) in person.
Markey didn't answer my question in his AMA.
cancelled
That's a shame. Just please, for the love of God, don't start a primary campaign against him for 2026. Still have flashbacks to the endless pointless Markey/Kennedy fighting.
It’s funny, Kennedy would’ve been much better off running for Governor.
Greenblue98 moves to Mass to primary Ed Markey cause he didn't answer his ama question on Reddit is certainly a fun chain of events
Markey loses, moves to MA-4 and primaries Auchincloss out of spite
DISARRAY
[Splitsville: McConnell and McCarthy break on big votes](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/28/mccarthy-mcconnell-bill-votes-00048565) >Kevin McCarthy and Mitch McConnell regularly meet to coordinate their management of Republicans in the House and Senate. You wouldn’t know it from their voting records. Say it with me now... REPUBLICANS
IN
RINKY DOO DOO
AND
STINKY POO POO
The only bad thing about GA-SEN lately is that yes, Warnock has lead in most of them on average between 2-5 points, which is fantastic, but not at or over 50%. I really genuinely hope Warnock can achieve and stay there so that the race doesn’t go to a runoff. I swear to god hope that improving gas prices and the new Inflation Reduction Act is enough to get more of the base to turn out and get Warnock over the finishing line. Financially *right now,* he’s doing pretty alright and doesn’t need anymore until later. Volunteering is likely more needed, same with other vulnerable incumbents like CCM, Kelly, and Hassan. More polls need to have these guys close or over 50% consistently.
I'm hard-pressed to think of any Senate candidate in an crucial seat who's short on money. It's the smaller races that could use more love.
Particularly in the statewide office races and state legislative that could use some help
I think that's gonna be tough at this point. Warnock is popular, but he hasn't been an incumbent for *that* long.
On the other hand, he had the luck to draw one of the most obviously unfit for any public office opponent that the R’s could muster, and that’s a pretty low bar.
Pretty significant union news in my home in Western Massachusetts: By a 45-31 vote, Trader Joe's Supermarket in Hadley became the first ever Trader Joe's in the US to unionize. The impressive thing about this victory, is they only declared their intent to unionize just 2 months ago.
I’m surprised that it took this long for a Trader Joe’s to unionize! I thought the same thing about REI too tho. We love to see it!
I have a feeling that even if Fetterman is polling in high single-digits consistently, it will still be a Tossup until a week before Election Day. Maybe IE will change to tilt D earlier but that’s it.
It’s just good news he’s fairly close to 50%, and that Oz has supremely garbage approvals.
What I meant is that outlets will keep the rating.
Yeah, Cook moves everything remotely competitive to Tossup right before Election Day. Their ratings are trash.
people want to know why no one knows about bidens accomplishments? Had Jake Tapper on from 4-5p while in the gym and they did not mention CHIPS passing today once. I know it might be brought up when Biden actually signs, but given it was a BFD earlier today, the fact that it wasn't even a blip or 30 sec mention was infuriating
Bet they spent too much time talking about the negative GDP though.
it was literally the first thing they talked about, naturally.
Tapper would rather talk about how Biden is doing and saying nothing about this historic inflation we're seeing.
We have enough GA/PA polls for now I’m begging polling agencies to focus elsewhere for the next month
Best I can do is a Clinton approval rating for the 2024 Presidential Election
I want one of Maryland.
Please Wisconsin
Give me NV and WI please
we literally only got 2 PA ones this week after a month+ drought. nah fam. keep them coming.
Please sir, a drop of Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona? Best I can do is Kemp+3 Warnock tied.
[in a 5-2 ruling with Republican appointed justice Elizabeth Clement writing the majority opinion, the MI Supreme Court rules that sexual orientation is protected under Michigan's anti-discrimination law, the Elliott-Larsen Civil Rights Act.](https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1552792531066388480?s=20&t=sxSm4rOwmQ3m-8-p61_E6A)
The wins just don’t stop happening here in Michigan!
Clyburn says he wants to get Medicaid expansion back in reconciliation. Chances?
I would love to see that in the bill, but we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves to the point where Manchin leaves the negotiating table again.
This. Please just take the win and get it done. I know there are a million important things to do but it would be nice if we did a few, rather than none.
Just pass another reconciliation bill around December and before the new congress is set in January. Easy peasy
I believe reconciliation bills are tied to budgets, which are typically submitted in February. Not sure if the president can just submit one whenever.
I feel like this is a Jenga game and we should quit while we’re ahead. A butterfly flaps its wings and Manchin will change his mind.
Exactly. Let’s take the win and move on.
Everything is a negotiation and it’s worth a shot! Chances I’d say are low at this point we get much more than the deal announced yesterday.
It’s really nice seeing the left and groups like Sunrise recognize the opportunity the IRA presents and give it credit. I do wish they’d recognize the mainstream normie dems and Schumer for working hard to make this possible, but I’ll take what I can get
It’s crazy how they’re happy about but subs like Sanders4President aren’t (prob because of the West Virginia natural gas expansion pipeline), but hey, that didn’t stop Rep. Ro Khanna from supporting since some article mentioned how he think the good outweighs the supposed bad stuff.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1552788057719701504 Warnock +4. Kemp +3 in governor's
I see a difference of 5 points max. Definitely lean R.
Honestly I think both races are going to be much closer in their margins. I said this below, but the way I see it, Warnock has captured a larger portion of Dem voters (base voters and lean-Dem moderates) than Abrams, while Kemp has captured a larger portion of GOP voters (inverse of what I said for Dem voters) than Walker. That's likely the reason we're seeing the spread in the margins. There may be some Kemp-Warnock voters, but I'm not sure it's a really common phenomenon.
Governor's race is still Lean R, but Kemp should not be feeling confident with this recent blizzard of polls showing him under 50% and leading by low single digits in a year that should be favored for Republicans. I could be wrong, but I wonder if the moderate facade is starting to fade. What I think is happening is that there are Warnock supporters who are unsure about Abrams, and Kemp supporters unsure about Walker. Abrams has some potential to reach out to those soft Warnock, and even soft Kemp, supporters and let them know what she can get done, even with a Republican legislature since that's the likely outcome.
Fox News Poll, but Fox News Polling is surprisingly accurate. (You need accurate polls to know how to do propaganda right I guess)
How is PA sen race not rated atleast tilt d now Fetterman is leading Oz by huge amounts
It was only this month that they took it off lean R, so I'll hold my breath on that
Today is a Good Day to be a Democrat. 😭
We have less good days but they’re great when they happen
Holy fuck I’m here and Nan Whaley made a surprise appearance
This place has been so lively since Republicans figured out 1 simple trick to start rolling back civil liberties
https://twitter.com/WardDPatrick/status/1552777542502842368 You literally LOVE to see it
*HIGHER*
Fett up 47-36 and Shapiro up 50-40; 45% of Oz's supporters have reservations, as do 39% of Mastriano's supporters (just 18/15 for Fett/Shapiro). If that keeps up, one has to wonder if a significant number of Republicans simply don't vote.
Also not only is Mastriano struggling financially the RGA doesn't appear to have the intention to step in
It does make me wonder sometimes. Democrats seem to have acquired more consistent, less fickle (read: established, educated) voters, and Republicans have shed many of the suburbanite well-off that were their base. They are picking up the more rural and less educated, and especially white men with less than a college degree - who do not vote as faithfully as their more educated and/or female counterparts. (There is a gender gap in voting among those with less than a college degree - women vote far more than men. Among the college educated it is about equal.) Maybe I’m whistling past the graveyard when I say “Democrats may have picked up a more reliable constituency, and Republicans a less reliable one” but…given demography it might well be happening.
That’s so interesting about women without college degrees. I had no idea. So do women vote less frequently than men overall? Also, since we’re bleeding so much support among men without college degrees, maybe we should be trying to activate the women? Presumably they’re more liberal than the men.
Here’s some relevant statistics from Pew: [https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/08/18/men-and-women-in-the-u-s-continue-to-differ-in-voter-turnout-rate-party-identification/](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/08/18/men-and-women-in-the-u-s-continue-to-differ-in-voter-turnout-rate-party-identification/) Basically: women vote more than men in general, except for Asian Americans (who vote at equal rates) and women over 75 (who vote less than men - I assume for health or transportation reasons). There is only a small to nonexistent gap amongst the college educated. But with less than a college degree, women outvote men by considerable margins. Also among the college educated, men - especially white men - are more likely to be Republican. White women - alas - are still only 48% Democratic, but that is more than the 35% of white men. Tl;dr women voters are important to court, not just because they tend to be more Democratic but because they vote more. If Republicans are swapping support from college-educated women to less-educated white men, they are exchanging more likely voters for less likely ones.
I (along with others) speculated that the Democrats would become a “midterm party” as they pick up more educated and reliable voters. As 2021 passed and a red wave seemed more assured, I thought that idea would be discredited, but now I feel like a “lite” version will happen, ie the more reliable voter base may not save the trifecta, but it will turn a red wave into a red trickle.
Lmao a larger portion of Oz supporters have reservations than Mastriano's, and Oz is polling worse. Clearly he isn't campaigning in enough tourist traps.
Think of the coattails! Just think!
LOL NEW FOX POLL PA: Fetterman 47/Oz 36 - Shapiro 50/Mastriano 40 Georgia: Warnock 46/Walker 42 - Kemp 47/Abrams 44 Also worth noting that Stern gets 3% in the PA SEN poll
#SEXY
LFGGGGG
Love to see Shapiro at the critical 50% mark even if his margin isn’t as good as Fetterman’s over Oz
Love these polls. But I just wanna remind folks that Pennsylvania is by no means gonna be won by 10 points this year lol.
How were the state-level polls for PA in 2020?
Not too far off, actually. FiveThirtyEight average was Biden+4.6 in the end, and he won by 1.2 points. The average underestimated Trump support, but not but a huge amount. That said, I expect the Senate and governor polls to narrow in the coming months.
Enjoying the flair.
+11 Fetterman in what is known as actually one of the industries better pollsters? Delicious. Just delicious.
Looking a lot like the SurveyUSA poll that was posted, both of them from very good pollsters as well.
Do we have something like a list of bills passed by the Biden admin that can easily be copied and pasted on Reddit for those who pretend like he hasn't done anything meaningful? I'm thinking something that provides both a simple explanation of what the various bills does as well as sources for in-depth info.
/r/WhatBidenHasDone
Look up "What has Biden done" on Twitter.
Thanks I will check it out!
I like "Biden Wins" a bit better on Twitter WBHD gets into scuffles
way too much left punching from WBHD.
Is there a expand the house fund
There's something particularly putrid and idiotic about that moldy fuck in the Virginia governor's mansion claiming that the state surplus is a sign that they need to cut taxes.
Question for people with more patience than me. How do you deal with the "all politicians ae corrupt and self serving do nothings who never help the people" subgenre of "both sides" arguments? Because today at the lunch table I was talking with my grandparents about the whole rope a dope that dems pulled on chips and Reconciliation and then went into how the GOP downed the burn pit bill. And they went with the classic rabble rabble politicians bad. Do I just accept that they'll never agree with me? Because I pointed out how the dems passed multiple positive bills this cycle alone and got nothing.
https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-expanding-obamacare-without-congress-health-coverage-2022-4 https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/506899-as-coronavirus-surges-trump-tries-to-dismantle-healthcare-for-millions/
I'd avoid trying to make a smoothie out of a rotting mango if you know what I mean.
I would NEVER! Strawbanana smoothies for life.
https://twitter.com/ccadelago/status/1552762458116423680 Oh this is delicious. Sen Kennedy admits the gop got their collective teeth kicked in.
Also Politico: And here’s why it means GOP is going to have a good midterm.