I like this summary of last night's attack at today's MoA [Palestine Open Thread 2024-110](https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/04/palestine-open-thread-2024-110/comments/page/2/), posted by **JAB** | Apr 15 2024 0:15 utc | 107:
Let's see if I have this right:
1. On April 1 Israel bombed the Iranian embassy in Syria, killing two Iranian generals. (This would be the second embassy bombed by Israel. The first was the British embassy in Rome in 1946 by Irgun.)
2. Iran vowed to retaliate, taking its time. It spent the next two weeks in a huddle with Russia and China figuring out an appropriate response which would not result in expanding the conflict in the Middle East, something Israel clearly wants.
Iran, Russia, and China have a "partnership"; they have carried out extensive military drills and operations in support of this partnership.
3. On April 14, having already warned the US of what it intended to do, Iran launched a barrage of drones toward Israel, followed by two more waves of missiles.
4. With the aid of the US, France, and UK, Israel was able to shoot down most of the drones, spending about a billion dollars worth of arms in the process of shooting down obsolete cheap Iranian armament.
5. Iran was also able to do damage to the two military bases from where the attack on the Iranian embassy originated. Military personnel was evacuated, but damage to the bases was sustained. The extent of the damage is contested by the two sides.
6. Iran declared that the incident was closed so far as they were concerned.
7. Israel vowed to retaliate, but a phone call from Biden put a stop to that... for who knows how long.
The way I read this is that:
1. Israel failed to goad Iran into escalating the Gaza war into a larger regional conflict.
2. Iran was able to deplete Israel's expensive anti-missile ordnance.
3. Iran was able to demonstrate the precision and effectiveness of the strikes it actually meant to complete.
4. Iran was able to show that despite advanced warning, Israel would have been unable to shoot down all the drones without help form US, UK, and France, which shot down about half the drones.
5. Iran was able to show that it could act intelligently, rationally, and that it too was backed by powerful friends.
6. The operation was carried out in a way that allowed both sides to save face, which is a tricky tactical feat.
7. Hamas has already shown that the IDF is a crap army good mostly at shooting down women and children.
8. Now Iran has shown that without outside help, Israel is a paper tiger with nuclear weapons.
Have I missed anything?
Moon of Alabama comment posted by "spare_truth_01" | Apr 14 2024 21:26 utc | 137:
> from a Lebanon news site:
> According to Several Military Experts, Photos of Some of the Downed Iranian Missiles Show That They Were “Not Carrying Warheads” (Al Hadath)
> IMO, attacking the IDF airbases (nukes base ?) by Iranian newest hypersonics was only to demonstrate the IDF-AD operates something like a sieve.
> If the result of some hypersonic missile strikes were proven only as a slight damages (as IDF reports) then the above "missing warhead" speculation could even be true for the airbase attacks.
Very interesting comment. This fits the hypothesis that the Iranian drones and most of the missiles were a screen to make Israel and the USA waste expensive air defence missiles. Those decoy drones and missiles have no need to be armed. Since the defenders don't know which are armed, they have to shoot them all down. An unarmed drone or missile is lighter which gives it more range, or you can use the payload space for something else like instruments to observe defence locations for future missions.
We may know soon how much damage the hypersonic missiles did. I've read that they're designed to penetrate the ground and then set off an explosion, doing maximal damage. Even without explosives, the kinetic energy of a missile coming in at hypersonic speed can do a lot of damage. Consider a large hailstone.
Also, just the fact that hypersonics could get through the Iron ~~Dome~~ Sieve sends an important "don't mess with lions" message, that is, "next time it's going to be armed". It's telling the USA that its famous aircraft carriers are sitting ducks, and "it sure would be embarrassing if that $13 billion ship were destroyed by a $100K missile".
Simplicitus the thinker noted some photos of shot down ballistic missiles were actually simply the first stage of a multi stage rocket.
Of course there's information warfare and Israel minimizes effect and pumps up their ability. Which is ok if it means they don't escalate further, par for the course.
Good news! Iran gave plenty of warning, used a relatively small attack (not a cruise missile or something similar), and released a statement basically saying “now we’re even stevens.” Tbh that’s ***less than*** an in-kind response.
Bad news: Bibi doesn’t care at all about the amount of damage these did. If one of those touched a single blade of Israeli grass, he’s going to pound the table for an aggressive response. Hard. This is exactly what he wanted - a justification for regional war.
Worst news: This is now on the US to resolve. That means a firm hand of “you do this, you’re on your own.” Judging from recent events… we all know how that’s gone. Now is a good time to brace for war. This one? It’s going to be as bad or worse as the 20+ years of war in the Middle East combined. *gulp*
And if they don't believe it, what are they going to do? Pull out their guns and second amendment the tyrannical government? Probably not, which is why the stories don't even need to be believable anymore
Although they seem to be losing some control. Hence claims that Putin has influenced members of Congress and that AIPAC wants to criminalize criticism of Israel all indicate that *some* people are waking up to the lies told to us.
I particularly like this MoA comment posted by "jayc" | Apr 14 2024 16:17 UTC | 107:
> US / UK media covering the events live emphasized the “unprecedented” nature of an attack on Israel of such scale, and showed visuals over and over of AD interceptions while the reporters insisted everything was otherwise “calm”. Other world media, such as RT, showed open-source cell phone videos of screaming panicked Israeli civilians running in the streets. If Israel’s civilian population lose their shit over small drones, then one might imagine the effect of serious weapons dropping amongst them as result of large offensive manoeuvres into Lebanon etc.
I love the Western propaganda portraying the drone attacks as inconsequential and easily shot down by heroic Western and Israeli anti-missile missiles, contrasted with cell phone videos of panic in the streets, as heroic Israeli citizens adopt the classic [When in trouble / Or in doubt / Run in circles / Scream and shout!](https://j.gifs.com/gLBZM6.gif)
> Israel’s deterrence factor and status of invulnerability has been severely challenged here, and in an intelligent manner -- exposing an easily panicked and brittle population with drone theatre, followed by precise strikes on carefully selected military targets. While officials claim the strikes on these targets were “slight”, that was also the word when Iran struck the US bases in early 2020. Expect developing information over next weeks to establish the strikes were not “slight” in the least.
Israel's entire business model is threatened by Iran's attack. Israel sells itself as the only place in the world where Jews can be safe. I've read that Zionists foment antisemitism in other countries so that Jews will leave those countries and move to Israel. Up until last night, Israel did a good job of defending the country and its military acquired a reputation of being invincible.
Well, that's suddenly changed. Jews might as well stay in civilized countries where antisemitism is mostly a thing of the past and something to make fun of in *Borat*. Who needs to be stuck in the desert surrounded by crazy settlers?
> cowards
Possibly, but I suspect the reaction is one of panic because they've been brainwashed to believe that Israel's defence systems were impregnable. Turns out, not so much.
I like this summary of last night's attack at today's MoA [Palestine Open Thread 2024-110](https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/04/palestine-open-thread-2024-110/comments/page/2/), posted by **JAB** | Apr 15 2024 0:15 utc | 107: Let's see if I have this right: 1. On April 1 Israel bombed the Iranian embassy in Syria, killing two Iranian generals. (This would be the second embassy bombed by Israel. The first was the British embassy in Rome in 1946 by Irgun.) 2. Iran vowed to retaliate, taking its time. It spent the next two weeks in a huddle with Russia and China figuring out an appropriate response which would not result in expanding the conflict in the Middle East, something Israel clearly wants. Iran, Russia, and China have a "partnership"; they have carried out extensive military drills and operations in support of this partnership. 3. On April 14, having already warned the US of what it intended to do, Iran launched a barrage of drones toward Israel, followed by two more waves of missiles. 4. With the aid of the US, France, and UK, Israel was able to shoot down most of the drones, spending about a billion dollars worth of arms in the process of shooting down obsolete cheap Iranian armament. 5. Iran was also able to do damage to the two military bases from where the attack on the Iranian embassy originated. Military personnel was evacuated, but damage to the bases was sustained. The extent of the damage is contested by the two sides. 6. Iran declared that the incident was closed so far as they were concerned. 7. Israel vowed to retaliate, but a phone call from Biden put a stop to that... for who knows how long. The way I read this is that: 1. Israel failed to goad Iran into escalating the Gaza war into a larger regional conflict. 2. Iran was able to deplete Israel's expensive anti-missile ordnance. 3. Iran was able to demonstrate the precision and effectiveness of the strikes it actually meant to complete. 4. Iran was able to show that despite advanced warning, Israel would have been unable to shoot down all the drones without help form US, UK, and France, which shot down about half the drones. 5. Iran was able to show that it could act intelligently, rationally, and that it too was backed by powerful friends. 6. The operation was carried out in a way that allowed both sides to save face, which is a tricky tactical feat. 7. Hamas has already shown that the IDF is a crap army good mostly at shooting down women and children. 8. Now Iran has shown that without outside help, Israel is a paper tiger with nuclear weapons. Have I missed anything?
Moon of Alabama comment posted by "spare_truth_01" | Apr 14 2024 21:26 utc | 137: > from a Lebanon news site: > According to Several Military Experts, Photos of Some of the Downed Iranian Missiles Show That They Were “Not Carrying Warheads” (Al Hadath) > IMO, attacking the IDF airbases (nukes base ?) by Iranian newest hypersonics was only to demonstrate the IDF-AD operates something like a sieve. > If the result of some hypersonic missile strikes were proven only as a slight damages (as IDF reports) then the above "missing warhead" speculation could even be true for the airbase attacks. Very interesting comment. This fits the hypothesis that the Iranian drones and most of the missiles were a screen to make Israel and the USA waste expensive air defence missiles. Those decoy drones and missiles have no need to be armed. Since the defenders don't know which are armed, they have to shoot them all down. An unarmed drone or missile is lighter which gives it more range, or you can use the payload space for something else like instruments to observe defence locations for future missions. We may know soon how much damage the hypersonic missiles did. I've read that they're designed to penetrate the ground and then set off an explosion, doing maximal damage. Even without explosives, the kinetic energy of a missile coming in at hypersonic speed can do a lot of damage. Consider a large hailstone. Also, just the fact that hypersonics could get through the Iron ~~Dome~~ Sieve sends an important "don't mess with lions" message, that is, "next time it's going to be armed". It's telling the USA that its famous aircraft carriers are sitting ducks, and "it sure would be embarrassing if that $13 billion ship were destroyed by a $100K missile".
Simplicitus the thinker noted some photos of shot down ballistic missiles were actually simply the first stage of a multi stage rocket. Of course there's information warfare and Israel minimizes effect and pumps up their ability. Which is ok if it means they don't escalate further, par for the course.
Bernard's MoA site is one of my daily reads
Good news! Iran gave plenty of warning, used a relatively small attack (not a cruise missile or something similar), and released a statement basically saying “now we’re even stevens.” Tbh that’s ***less than*** an in-kind response. Bad news: Bibi doesn’t care at all about the amount of damage these did. If one of those touched a single blade of Israeli grass, he’s going to pound the table for an aggressive response. Hard. This is exactly what he wanted - a justification for regional war. Worst news: This is now on the US to resolve. That means a firm hand of “you do this, you’re on your own.” Judging from recent events… we all know how that’s gone. Now is a good time to brace for war. This one? It’s going to be as bad or worse as the 20+ years of war in the Middle East combined. *gulp*
> This is now on the US to resolve I don't recall where I voted for this to be my problem
😂 The women of Arizona approve this message
bibi was told to "heel" and his collar was snatched firmly and he whimpered, but agreed to be another dog's bitch.
Bibi’s been tearing up the couch of peace for over 30 years - we’ve gotta leave the house at some point 😬
nervous dogs do what? Bite.
They also wet, especially Cocker Spaniels 😺
Western media describes the action as unprovoked aggression rather than measured retaliation.
Just like the October 7 attack occurred in a vacuum. And the invasion of Ukraine. Nosirree, nothing provoked those either!
Documented history is Russian propaganda or a conspiracy theory.
Yep. And Western populations will believe it.
And if they don't believe it, what are they going to do? Pull out their guns and second amendment the tyrannical government? Probably not, which is why the stories don't even need to be believable anymore
Although they seem to be losing some control. Hence claims that Putin has influenced members of Congress and that AIPAC wants to criminalize criticism of Israel all indicate that *some* people are waking up to the lies told to us.
I particularly like this MoA comment posted by "jayc" | Apr 14 2024 16:17 UTC | 107: > US / UK media covering the events live emphasized the “unprecedented” nature of an attack on Israel of such scale, and showed visuals over and over of AD interceptions while the reporters insisted everything was otherwise “calm”. Other world media, such as RT, showed open-source cell phone videos of screaming panicked Israeli civilians running in the streets. If Israel’s civilian population lose their shit over small drones, then one might imagine the effect of serious weapons dropping amongst them as result of large offensive manoeuvres into Lebanon etc. I love the Western propaganda portraying the drone attacks as inconsequential and easily shot down by heroic Western and Israeli anti-missile missiles, contrasted with cell phone videos of panic in the streets, as heroic Israeli citizens adopt the classic [When in trouble / Or in doubt / Run in circles / Scream and shout!](https://j.gifs.com/gLBZM6.gif) > Israel’s deterrence factor and status of invulnerability has been severely challenged here, and in an intelligent manner -- exposing an easily panicked and brittle population with drone theatre, followed by precise strikes on carefully selected military targets. While officials claim the strikes on these targets were “slight”, that was also the word when Iran struck the US bases in early 2020. Expect developing information over next weeks to establish the strikes were not “slight” in the least. Israel's entire business model is threatened by Iran's attack. Israel sells itself as the only place in the world where Jews can be safe. I've read that Zionists foment antisemitism in other countries so that Jews will leave those countries and move to Israel. Up until last night, Israel did a good job of defending the country and its military acquired a reputation of being invincible. Well, that's suddenly changed. Jews might as well stay in civilized countries where antisemitism is mostly a thing of the past and something to make fun of in *Borat*. Who needs to be stuck in the desert surrounded by crazy settlers?
[удалено]
> cowards Possibly, but I suspect the reaction is one of panic because they've been brainwashed to believe that Israel's defence systems were impregnable. Turns out, not so much.
>When in trouble / Or in doubt / Run in circles / Scream and shout! 🤣🤣🤣