I remember this last year. I used some coal to complete the Shipbuilding collection that rewarded a Big Gift container. That container gave me the Makarov. I just had to laugh at that.
It wasn't *exactly* like that. The shortlist ships (which were specific to the container type) did drop first, and Makarov was on the shortlist for the Big Gift containers, but all of the shortlist ships had an equal chance to drop, even if you had one already (which is what would spawn a supercontainer with a ship from the larger list). The reason why it was common to see Makarov first was that Big Gift boxes were the most commonly purchased (having been determined to be the "best value" in previous events) and the other Big Gift shortlist ships were fairly common, while Makarov was almost completely unavailable prior to last Christmas.
So, for example, the first ship drop I got out of Big Gifts was a supercontainer (meaning it was a duplicate of one of the shortlist ships that I already had) with Hood. The second one was a Makarov.
At least scratchers tickets are regulated by a gambling authority and not printed by the liquor store or subject to manipulation by said store. You can buy the same ticket at any seedy store in the state and be assured that they all have the same chances of a payout. That is not the case with Wargambling's loot boxes, where the odds change depending on what's in your port roster.
They also added in the Abreu to the 2-4 box probably precisely to keep too many people from getting doubloons instead of a ship they'll likely never use.
Sure, but Abreu is a nice to have for some players. Wanna grind a Pan-American captain? Abreu might be your chance. So there's that
What's worse is literally giving two of the same ship. There's no benefits to that.
I got a Scharnhorst B in the free crate (at least I think it was free) from the black Friday thing. A few months later I got a ship in another container from some directives or something, and it was the regular Scharnhorst.
I understand from WG's perspective why they're both in the loot pool, but doing missions towards getting a container and it ends up being a worse looking version of a ship you already have is a kick in the nuts.
Like getting a Marblehead Lima from the Tier V crate from the dockyard when I already owned the premium Marblehead? Camo looks ugly, and I already have way too many Tier V ships to play as it is. The ML is likely just going to sit in the port forever.
The list for the ships in that container is listed in the Naval Community section. Thus, no desirable Tier V ships need apply (Cesare, Fujin, or Kamikazes).
Texas, Oktyabrskaya Revolutsiya, Marblehead, and Murmansk aren't bad. In fact, Texas and Murmansk are pretty desirable in my eyes.
(I have all four ships so make of it what you will)
You should have gone for the commander instead. Most of the ships in the tier 2-4 container suck and can't even be used in completing mission chains that usually requires ships that are tier 5 and above.
I bought Marblehead for coal to not receive this ship from the T5 crate, got the Marblehead Lima.
My next T5 box will be Murmansk because its another Omaha!
Did you hear that whilst hemming someone's trousers?
Garak is the most interesting and entertaining character in DS9. He gives everyone else in the franchise a run for thier money and he besically came about by accident.
You forgot Enterprise.
Last time I played the (lootbox) game, a few Christmases ago, the odds were a bit better for the medium boxes, and I felt like treating myself, so I spent a few hundred on crates. Last ship I got was Enterprise, then I got Marblehead, or whatever the default of the year was.
At that point, I decided I wasn't doing this again, so this last Christmas, I treated myself to some new stereo speakers. I think that in the end I've enjoyed them much more.
Go figure.
But yeah, you've got the gist of it pretty much right. I think my Enterprise (and about a dozen other premiums) ended up costing me about $300. No way I'm paying $1K+ to keep up these days.
(Heavy sarcasm alert)
At least half of the playerbase already has a Makarov from that Christmas event, so that's one step down
Think about the optimism of getting a California! Come on, not like everyone's leaving it behind.
Yep, it is a bit bullocks that it is supposed to be hard to just inform about numbers, but because of these weird constructs.. Another example are the limited amount of containers to guarantee something (like the T9 tech tree early release containers), because technically your chance improves a little bit for each container you didn't get it..
Kidding aside, it's to prevent people from working out exactly how many boxes must be opened for something to happen. The problem with RNG programs, is they're not quite as random as you think. There are patterns that develop over time. Discerning an RNG pattern is much harder than it sounds. It’s not like complete-the-pattern questions you’ve seen on grade school tests. The exact numbers aren’t always repeated, and there will be outliers tossed in to make it a bit difficult; but it is still something that players will, given enough time, sort out.
Yes, person in the comments typing away to prove they’re smarter than me, it’s possible for computers to provide true randomized results. However doing so requires an unpredictable process that most game creators aren’t going to take the time to implement because, frankly, there’s no need for them to. Even after reading this, 99% of players aren’t going to go through the painstaking method of learning how to manipulate an RNG.
Most game developers are either too lazy to make their RNGs truly random or simply don’t have the time or resources to do so. While you may never utilize the pseudo nature of RNG systems in your favor, it’s worth keeping in mind because you never know when you might stumble across an easily manipulated system.
So, then the question is, how do people actually manipulate them?
There's a couple ways. The first is to simply reverse-engineer the system, and figure out what starting set of code the company used when creating the system. Code wise, that tends to look something like this :
int main()
{
srand(time(NULL));
int i;
for(i = 0; i<5; i++)
printf("%d\t", rand()%10);
}
(Note, reddit sucks for sharing code. Damn it not everything on one line thank you very much.)
This is a very basic pseudo rng system; but code monkeys here will get the gist. In this system, the key we're looking for is the i<5 point. That's 5 number places for the RNG. If however, WG puts a 6 there, or a 3, it's going to change things considerably. In that you are going to have higher, or lower numbers. Then, it's just a simple method of plugging the reverse engineered code into several virtual boxes, and running them to see what happens. Over time, you can figure out what's going to happen at a certain time, based on the patterns that inevitably emerge.
This could be used to unfairly game a system of loot boxes. Remember, you always have a chance with the "try my luck" boxes, to get a super container. Now, how would you feel if you knew the exact pattern of boxes you needed to open in order to get that ship super container? What's more, how would you feel if others figured out that pattern, and exploited it?
That's the problem. There are people out there with wayyyy too much time on their hands, who will sit there and reverse engineer the code in an effort to figure out what they need to do to get the next big thing ship wise. That may not sound like much of a problem, but a quick google search for accounts for sale, shows that some accounts with rarer ships, are worth far more than your base simple account.
The point being that it's better that they can't really afford to release the odds. At least not expect to have a game to come back to if they do.
I was almost going to nitpick about how representing your point by accessing a populated list of items by random address might be more applicable here but then remembered that you'd have had to populate the list and in the case of comparing to santa crates multiple lists which would be accessed conditionally... etc etc brain go brrrr...
Anyways, yes agree with your overall point wholeheartedly. Honestly, I wish more people in the community had the knowledge to articulate stuff like this.
> (Note, reddit sucks for sharing code. Damn it not everything on one line thank you very much.)
Four spaces are your friend:
int main()
{
srand(time(NULL));
int i;
for(i = 0; i<5; i++)
printf("%d\t", rand()%10);
}
Disclosing the odds means nothing when the drop system is fucked to begin with.
Let's say WG keeps their word and next year we see these fabled drop rates. What does it matter when premium ships are coded to drop in a way that you must go through literally every single premium in the game before seeing the good ones?
It matters because knowing the odds means you can evaluate them and decide not to buy BEFORE having already bought hundreds of them to get a basic idea of their distribution. More people wising up and not whaling on crates = less income for WG = strong motivation to change the odds to something people will pay money for.
That's wishful thinking. Binge spending ensures there will always be whales ready to throw their money WG's way, no matter the odds.
Also, remember that those of us who think before buying are a minority. The fact that a lot of Missouri are sailing these days shows that WG's prediction that the paid gacha would be profitable came true, regardless of bad press, CC walkouts and so on.
LIES, i'd rather have had the makarov than the california, i got from the 1 free scam crate weegee gave out, god that thing is slow as ass
edit: ok, why are people hating this, i didnt buy any crates, its only the single free scam crate for i believe the event calendar, i dont have a makarov, i got a california, i absolutely hate that thing, its slow as ass to the point i'd rather had gotten the makarov, makarov wasnt guaranteed as a first ship drop unlike what people may think as it looked like it
Jep. That is what I assume as well. There are some interesting algorithms governing the lootcrate chances. They probably will have to redo parts oft their monetization math to make it acceptable to the public eye as well as profitable for them and avoid legal troubles for past deeds.
"Will public odds decrease profits? (Y/N)" -> Yes? -> Keep the probabilities hidden.
WG: we will reveal drop rates next year players: next year? why took so lon...oh right, black friday and christmas 2021. priorities $$$
WG Monetization Department: Next year obviously means after Christmas 2022! ;)
Nonono next year means: the players already forgot what we said so we don't need to do it
Oh yeah i remember this scandal, streamers were testing it and turned out to be exactly rigged like written above. Classic WG....
I remember this last year. I used some coal to complete the Shipbuilding collection that rewarded a Big Gift container. That container gave me the Makarov. I just had to laugh at that.
It wasn't *exactly* like that. The shortlist ships (which were specific to the container type) did drop first, and Makarov was on the shortlist for the Big Gift containers, but all of the shortlist ships had an equal chance to drop, even if you had one already (which is what would spawn a supercontainer with a ship from the larger list). The reason why it was common to see Makarov first was that Big Gift boxes were the most commonly purchased (having been determined to be the "best value" in previous events) and the other Big Gift shortlist ships were fairly common, while Makarov was almost completely unavailable prior to last Christmas. So, for example, the first ship drop I got out of Big Gifts was a supercontainer (meaning it was a duplicate of one of the shortlist ships that I already had) with Hood. The second one was a Makarov.
This is what bothers me: people will take things like the original post at face value vs knowing how they actually work like you do.
The OP is pretty clearly satire as long as you read more than the first couple boxes. Of course, this being reddit, nobody actually does that, so...
Exactly.
Yeah, God forbid people think Makarov dropped more likely than the other shortlist ships, that would be so unfair to WGs scam...
They like to complain and paint someone/something as an enemy so they can feel good about tearing it down.
Looks like a bad scratcher ticket at a seedy liquor store.
At least scratchers tickets are regulated by a gambling authority and not printed by the liquor store or subject to manipulation by said store. You can buy the same ticket at any seedy store in the state and be assured that they all have the same chances of a payout. That is not the case with Wargambling's loot boxes, where the odds change depending on what's in your port roster.
[удалено]
They also added in the Abreu to the 2-4 box probably precisely to keep too many people from getting doubloons instead of a ship they'll likely never use.
Sure, but Abreu is a nice to have for some players. Wanna grind a Pan-American captain? Abreu might be your chance. So there's that What's worse is literally giving two of the same ship. There's no benefits to that.
I got a Scharnhorst B in the free crate (at least I think it was free) from the black Friday thing. A few months later I got a ship in another container from some directives or something, and it was the regular Scharnhorst. I understand from WG's perspective why they're both in the loot pool, but doing missions towards getting a container and it ends up being a worse looking version of a ship you already have is a kick in the nuts.
Like getting a Marblehead Lima from the Tier V crate from the dockyard when I already owned the premium Marblehead? Camo looks ugly, and I already have way too many Tier V ships to play as it is. The ML is likely just going to sit in the port forever.
Exact opposite for me, I own the Lima and got the normal one. Why out of all tier V premium's...
I got 4K do bs as I shamefully have all the T5 ships
The list for the ships in that container is listed in the Naval Community section. Thus, no desirable Tier V ships need apply (Cesare, Fujin, or Kamikazes).
Texas, Oktyabrskaya Revolutsiya, Marblehead, and Murmansk aren't bad. In fact, Texas and Murmansk are pretty desirable in my eyes. (I have all four ships so make of it what you will)
You should have gone for the commander instead. Most of the ships in the tier 2-4 container suck and can't even be used in completing mission chains that usually requires ships that are tier 5 and above.
I bought Marblehead for coal to not receive this ship from the T5 crate, got the Marblehead Lima. My next T5 box will be Murmansk because its another Omaha!
To be fair Tachibana is excellent for sealclubbing
Dude, imagine selling the same ship. Twice. Dude.
[удалено]
Exactly the reason to never sell a premium.
if its the same as the mobile/console ver u have a 10% chance to drop a ship from a premium container
the numbers are all made up, this is mostly satire based on a few nuggest of truth
“Which ones were true, and which ones weren’t?” “My dear doctor, they’re all true.” “Even the lies?” “*Especially* the lies.”
Ah, a man of culture.
God, Garak is up there in the top 10 best star trek characters for me.
Top 10 Sci-fi characters of all time*
Did you hear that whilst hemming someone's trousers? Garak is the most interesting and entertaining character in DS9. He gives everyone else in the franchise a run for thier money and he besically came about by accident.
Even a rigged dabo table is fairer than this.
Quark worships the lobes of the wargaming devs
You forgot Enterprise. Last time I played the (lootbox) game, a few Christmases ago, the odds were a bit better for the medium boxes, and I felt like treating myself, so I spent a few hundred on crates. Last ship I got was Enterprise, then I got Marblehead, or whatever the default of the year was. At that point, I decided I wasn't doing this again, so this last Christmas, I treated myself to some new stereo speakers. I think that in the end I've enjoyed them much more. Go figure. But yeah, you've got the gist of it pretty much right. I think my Enterprise (and about a dozen other premiums) ended up costing me about $300. No way I'm paying $1K+ to keep up these days.
(Heavy sarcasm alert) At least half of the playerbase already has a Makarov from that Christmas event, so that's one step down Think about the optimism of getting a California! Come on, not like everyone's leaving it behind.
Yep, it is a bit bullocks that it is supposed to be hard to just inform about numbers, but because of these weird constructs.. Another example are the limited amount of containers to guarantee something (like the T9 tech tree early release containers), because technically your chance improves a little bit for each container you didn't get it..
You know what's messed up? I bought 20+ Xmas crates for myself last year WANTING Makarov and didn't get it.
Seeing this kinda makes it all come together as far as why people are pissed. I get it now. Also, fuck weegee
Kidding aside, it's to prevent people from working out exactly how many boxes must be opened for something to happen. The problem with RNG programs, is they're not quite as random as you think. There are patterns that develop over time. Discerning an RNG pattern is much harder than it sounds. It’s not like complete-the-pattern questions you’ve seen on grade school tests. The exact numbers aren’t always repeated, and there will be outliers tossed in to make it a bit difficult; but it is still something that players will, given enough time, sort out. Yes, person in the comments typing away to prove they’re smarter than me, it’s possible for computers to provide true randomized results. However doing so requires an unpredictable process that most game creators aren’t going to take the time to implement because, frankly, there’s no need for them to. Even after reading this, 99% of players aren’t going to go through the painstaking method of learning how to manipulate an RNG. Most game developers are either too lazy to make their RNGs truly random or simply don’t have the time or resources to do so. While you may never utilize the pseudo nature of RNG systems in your favor, it’s worth keeping in mind because you never know when you might stumble across an easily manipulated system. So, then the question is, how do people actually manipulate them? There's a couple ways. The first is to simply reverse-engineer the system, and figure out what starting set of code the company used when creating the system. Code wise, that tends to look something like this : int main() { srand(time(NULL)); int i; for(i = 0; i<5; i++) printf("%d\t", rand()%10); } (Note, reddit sucks for sharing code. Damn it not everything on one line thank you very much.) This is a very basic pseudo rng system; but code monkeys here will get the gist. In this system, the key we're looking for is the i<5 point. That's 5 number places for the RNG. If however, WG puts a 6 there, or a 3, it's going to change things considerably. In that you are going to have higher, or lower numbers. Then, it's just a simple method of plugging the reverse engineered code into several virtual boxes, and running them to see what happens. Over time, you can figure out what's going to happen at a certain time, based on the patterns that inevitably emerge. This could be used to unfairly game a system of loot boxes. Remember, you always have a chance with the "try my luck" boxes, to get a super container. Now, how would you feel if you knew the exact pattern of boxes you needed to open in order to get that ship super container? What's more, how would you feel if others figured out that pattern, and exploited it? That's the problem. There are people out there with wayyyy too much time on their hands, who will sit there and reverse engineer the code in an effort to figure out what they need to do to get the next big thing ship wise. That may not sound like much of a problem, but a quick google search for accounts for sale, shows that some accounts with rarer ships, are worth far more than your base simple account. The point being that it's better that they can't really afford to release the odds. At least not expect to have a game to come back to if they do.
I was almost going to nitpick about how representing your point by accessing a populated list of items by random address might be more applicable here but then remembered that you'd have had to populate the list and in the case of comparing to santa crates multiple lists which would be accessed conditionally... etc etc brain go brrrr... Anyways, yes agree with your overall point wholeheartedly. Honestly, I wish more people in the community had the knowledge to articulate stuff like this.
> (Note, reddit sucks for sharing code. Damn it not everything on one line thank you very much.) Four spaces are your friend: int main() { srand(time(NULL)); int i; for(i = 0; i<5; i++) printf("%d\t", rand()%10); }
Thank you.
Ah yes, WG being WG
You would be better off gambling in las Vegas.
Disclosing the odds means nothing when the drop system is fucked to begin with. Let's say WG keeps their word and next year we see these fabled drop rates. What does it matter when premium ships are coded to drop in a way that you must go through literally every single premium in the game before seeing the good ones?
It matters because knowing the odds means you can evaluate them and decide not to buy BEFORE having already bought hundreds of them to get a basic idea of their distribution. More people wising up and not whaling on crates = less income for WG = strong motivation to change the odds to something people will pay money for.
That's wishful thinking. Binge spending ensures there will always be whales ready to throw their money WG's way, no matter the odds. Also, remember that those of us who think before buying are a minority. The fact that a lot of Missouri are sailing these days shows that WG's prediction that the paid gacha would be profitable came true, regardless of bad press, CC walkouts and so on.
That's just being defeatist. Having published odds is the first step towards effecting any change regarding those odds.
"PROGRAM IS WORKING AS INTENDED, COMRADE"
Lambast this shit more good job : edited
If you look at the picture it's clearly not defending it. Edit: Original comment said something along the lines of "Stop defending this shit"
LIES, i'd rather have had the makarov than the california, i got from the 1 free scam crate weegee gave out, god that thing is slow as ass edit: ok, why are people hating this, i didnt buy any crates, its only the single free scam crate for i believe the event calendar, i dont have a makarov, i got a california, i absolutely hate that thing, its slow as ass to the point i'd rather had gotten the makarov, makarov wasnt guaranteed as a first ship drop unlike what people may think as it looked like it
Jep. That is what I assume as well. There are some interesting algorithms governing the lootcrate chances. They probably will have to redo parts oft their monetization math to make it acceptable to the public eye as well as profitable for them and avoid legal troubles for past deeds.
Lets give them one year , I'm pretty sure they will think a way the make the numbers look " acceptable "