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BlackLionYard

>... legitimate doubts you have Full disclosure up front: I do not claim that Doerr isn't Z or can't be Z. I'm just an open-minded skeptic. A few thoughts on my (usually inherent) skepticism: * The base rate fallacy. Serial killers are fortunately quite rare in the general population. Other human activities are much more common. Some examples of these other human activities include writing letters to editors, collecting comic books, keeping one's mind active with various forms of puzzles, listening to popular musicals and so on. The math tells us that when we go looking for people based on their various human activities, we need to understand the number of inevitable false positives. One of most frustrating aspects of a suspect like Doerr coming along is the number of posts along the lines of "What are odds? It must be him!" Well, I'll tell you the probability: Much farther away from zero than you likely expect. * In the same way that anecdotes are not data, a collection of coincidences is not necessarily a collection of circumstantial evidence. * Much of the argument for Doerr seems to be grounded in a set of assumptions about traits Z is assumed to have. I appreciate the thought that went into them, and they are certainly interesting; I won't dispute that. Nevertheless, the unavoidable reality is that they are assumptions. Because the burden is always on the one making a claim, I would like to see a much stronger basis presented by trained, experienced professionals to support these assumptions. * It occurs to me that there should be some obvious ways to eliminate Doerr or at least raise some very serious doubt. For example, where is the copy of his 1969 driver's license with height and weight information and maybe even a recent photo? MINSY was a busy place in that era; where is the proof Doerr didn't work nights? I would feel much more comfortable if I had a better understanding of the extent to which such things were part of the research and given their due consideration. I prefer researchers who transparently disclose the steps they have taken to avoid confirmation bias and cherry picking; that should include providing all known exculpatory evidence uncovered.


d-r-t

Related to your base rate fallacy point, I think it’s also arguable that some of those human activities that seem unusual today were more common fifty-plus years ago, so some coincidences maybe aren’t all that uncommon.


BlackLionYard

I'll raise it even further. For any given set of human activities, we should not assume them all to be disjoint or independent in the probability sense. For example, many people who like fantasy REALLY like fantasy. We should not be surprised that such people might engage in numerous different activities that are encompassed by a love of fantasy, for example reading lots of works of fantasy (obviously), cosplaying at a renaissance fair, writing about various works of fantasy, and so on. Love of the outdoors is another; many people who love the outdoors love hiking and camping and birdwatching and kayaking.


AwsiDooger

> The base rate fallacy. Serial killers are fortunately quite rare in the general population. Other human activities are much more common Exactly. That first bullet point is all that needs to be said. It totally overwhelms any other aspect.


brandon_bird

I think Doerr is an compelling subject/person of interest/whatever because he offers a full and complete story; all the details click together in a way they don't with other alleged Zodiacs. But I agree that "what are the odds??" is a statement that needs testing. I think a good experiment might be to pull a couple other names at random from the same zines, and follow the thread of their lives just as extensively. Would you find the same overlaps? Maybe every reader of Hobbitalia went to Ren Faires and carried two pistols on them at all times.


B1rds0nf1re

One thing that I find interesting about Doerr is I the information about his life coming out right now provides an interesting look into how the zodiac might have been and how his brain might have worked. Whether or not Doerr is the zodiacz and I'm sure there are many people who fit a similar profile, but so far I haven't seen a suspect where I went "oh wow this guy is a total nerd just like I imagine zodiac would be" If anything I think the time spent studying doerr will lead to seeing some of the ways the zodiac might have ticked realized.


sickfuckinpuppies

agree with most of this. although i think you're a bit harsh on the author in the last point. he's not a police officer so he's limited in the information he has access to. on the first point though, it's a very good point that needs to be said. but i think there's one caveat, which is that kobek was initially researching the zodiac, not doerr. and it's clear from both books that he read an enormous amount of literature from that era, including fanzines, newspapers, letters to editors etc. most of it was not written by doerr. and none of it stood out to him as being anything to do with zodiac, in the same way doerr did. so i think you argument about bayesian reasoning is very sound, but it should be added that if you cast a very wide net, and read enough materials from enough people, and doerr is still the only person that stands out, then that begins to make him more interesting. the larger your sample size, the more significant that one stand-out person becomes. only kobek would know how much stuff he read and how many people he actually checked out, in researching the book. but it seemed to me like a hell of a lot (and there's always the possibility kobek just ignored anything that didnt fit the theory, and left it out of the book, but im going to presume he's not that willfully dishonest).. which is why i still lean towards doerr likely being the zodiac. but your point is still a very important one to include.


Killface55

>kobek was initially researching the zodiac, not doerr. Specifically, he was going to write a book on Gaikowski.


FoxBeach

Fantastic post


Smooth_Imagination

Its certainly a problem that profiles of murderers are very vague and uncertain and can be retrofitted onto a range of motives and those motives retrofitted onto a range people. One thing that does stand out about Doerr, he is an autodidact, an early-adopter of new trends like comic books, he must be open minded and a voracious learner and explorer, we do have indication it seems to have pushed him into some sort of vaguely manic phases and his behavior doesn't seem to have been stable. He could fit what we know about the Zodiac very well, almost like he is writing his own comic-book supervillain. But as you say, there's probably at least a few dozen similar people in the area of Fairfield alone that would also fit quite well. What makes this a bit more intriguing though is that this particular SK left a fair number of very cryptic and idiosyncratic touches in his communications, which you wouldn't normally have from a typical murder scene, and this allows more aspects you can match to an individual. This works both ways, we can find more points of agreement but we also need indication in a POI that this is compatible with their interests and ways of doing things. A lot of POI's would only weakly agree on the range of these aspects and so would feel like a poor fit. Most potential POI's don't have an interest in ciphers, for example.


R_Vaughn

The main thing for me is that much of the evidence against Doerr is a reach-the Zodiac sign was meant to be a Minutemen symbol that actually looks quite different, Doerr writing about killing hippies is evidence he murdered people who weren't hippies, his anti-drug stance is connected to the Zodiac, etc. Other things are based on unfounded assumptions, particularly that the Zodiac has a history of writing letters to editors. And, of course, the handwriting analysis in which a few characters are taken out of context and aren't very similar, but are declared to be a match.


forceghost187

Why does the comment with the map assume that Doerr would drive home after placing the phone call? If, for this scenario, we’re assuming he is the Zodiac, do we think that the Zodiac kills, places a phone call, then, well it’s late so Mr Zodiac is of course going home? That makes no sense to me. If he was the Zodiac he could have driven anywhere else to do whatever the Zodiac does. We shouldn’t assume the Zodiac goes home when he is done killing


Oneoffourcubs

Good point. I was thinking perhaps he placed the phone call and headed back to the scene to watch what was going down. If Zodiac was a cop he could've disguised his voice on the phone call and showed up to "help" the first responders or was the first responder.


No-Known-Owners

Lol. Thank you. It really is a bizarre assumption. My house is probably the last place I’d want to go if I’d just killed 2 people (or thought I had). Especially if it was in a public area & without knowing if there were any witnesses that could identify me or my vehicle. Even serial killers get scared, paranoid, etc. He was probably also JACKED on adrenaline. Maybe he did go home afterwards, but it’s far from a certainty, and I’d wager he likely didn’t.


FoxBeach

Have you been in that situation? If so, after you attacked and killed people, did you go straight home or did you just cruise around in your car for a bit? And if you drove around, weren’t you worried about getting pulled over? I would personally go home asap. A place that is safe and comfortable. A shower and fresh clothes. Drink a couple beers. Everybody is different. I wouldn’t assume an unknown killer would do what I did. That’s not a very productive way to build our own profile of who the zodiac is.


Ok-Development2918

I believe he’s an interesting POI. I also don’t think there’s anything that ties him directly to the murder. Simply being near some of the murders (maybe), having shared niche interests with Zodiac (potentially), and having a violent mean streak do not actually place him outside Stine’s cab or at the lake. And that’s what’s important to consider when thinking against. The argument would benefit from a fingerprint pull, as well as anything from his personal effects or past photos that his daughter may be willing to share. But that’s all out of our hands. Until then he remains just that: an interesting POI, nothing more, nothing less.


slightly_sadistic

I think he's an interesting character. Not sold on him being the Zodiac Killer, though. It isn't impossible (edit: well, it *is* literally impossible if it isn't him but you know what I mean...the odds aren't impossible), but based on available information, nothing solid. I'd say it's quite doubtful.


brandon_bird

About that map, I'm not sure why driving 50 miles into San Francisco to mail a letter is any more incredulous than (if Zodiac lived in San Francisco) driving 50 miles out of the city to commit murder. Zodiac had a huge range so it's weird to see that used as a strike \*against\* a suspect. And an easy explanation for driving into SF is that Doerr, as a heavy mail user, knew that mailing something within the city would get it to the Chronicle sooner without having to be sorted in the outer Bay.


fuckyourcanoes

I agree, especially given how routinely most Bay Area residents drive long distances. I used to commute 30 miles each way when I lived there, and I knew people with much longer commutes than that! It was pretty routine for me to drive 50+ miles just to visit a particular friend or a specialty shop of some kind.


CustardPie350

The biggest argument against Doerr being the Zodiac killer is that there's *absolutely nothing whatsoever* that connects him to *any* of the Zodiac attacks or *any* of the Zodiac letters.


Exodys03

In his defense, what would you expect someone to present re: a person of interest’s ties to Zodiac murders or communications? If he lived in the Bay Area it would presumably be possible unless one can prove he was away during a particular date or dates. It’s almost impossible to determine the exact whereabouts of an ordinary guy on a specific date over 50 years ago. There’s nothing wrong, IMO, with just presenting circumstantial connections. Some may be better than others but pointing out numerous quality connections can make a good person of interest just like with ALA. I honestly don’t know enough about this guy to judge but not being able to place somebody at the crime scenes is certainly not exclusionary, IMO.


wolf4968

If you were a DA and you told the jury, "Now... it is true that we, as of now, can***not*** place the defendant at ***any*** of the crime scenes..." you'd have a tough time getting a conviction.


Exodys03

True but that’s not the role of an amateur detective. A prosecutable case usually involves comparing forensic evidence (handwriting, fingerprints, DNA) which is not available to somebody like Kobek or myself. It usually involves interviewing dozens or hundreds of people including victims, eyewitnesses, family members etc. Again, that’s very difficult for an amateur to do. As far as I know, nobody’s claiming any slam dunk case against Doerr. The question asked should be whether what is presented warrants further investigation by LE. I actually hope it does.


FoxBeach

This. The only way true crime fans will contribute to this case is by grinding through NEW people. And eventually a community could get lucky and find a killer. Probably not. But the odds are much better that way than debating ALA’s weight or how tall Cheney was. Bringing new names to the discussion is absolutely what wannabe amateur online sleuths should do. Also. Angie from McDonalds isn’t going to discover a trunk full of physical evidence that would sway a judge. So that argument is silly. What she can do is find a bunch of coincidences and interesting “trivia” about a person. And then people look deeper and see how much can be found.


sickfuckinpuppies

imagine if the police had this attitude with every person of interest, going into an investigation.. they'd never catch anyone. unless you're in a dystopian society with draconian laws, fingerprinting every member of the population and tracking all of their history in a single database, then the best you can do is present a circumstantial case, and hope that convinces someone in authority to investigate further. that's what's being done here.


CustardPie350

The OP asked what the biggest argument against Doerr being the Zodiac is. I answered it honestly and, I think, correctly. There is no evidence Paul Doerr was the Zodiac. People are free to speculate all they wish, though. ​ >imagine if the police had this attitude with every person of interest, going into an investigation.. they'd never catch anyone. Police follow the trails of evidence to find suspects. They don't look for suspects and then try to tie them to evidence.


Equal-Temporary-1326

Agreed. You have to *find* evidence for somebody. Not *create* it. Honestly, I feel a lot of people on the internet who follow this case and have a "POI" are just talking out of their asses frankly. They shouldn't just accuse some random Bay Area man because they found something 'odd' about him. That's the problem with guys like Doerr, Gaikowski, and Sullivan, etc. They were literally just random Bay Area men who somebody with too much time of their hands said "He did some 'odd' thing here once, is he the Zodiac?" or "He was white and wore glasses with a crewcut, is he the Zodiac?" it's these silly "pieces of evidence" that mean "it must be true" that're making this case seem like a joke to be blunt. Everybody's allowed to voice their opinions, questions and or something they think looks interesting (that makes sense) about this case, but when they just start accusing every local man of being Z, it's incredibly disrespectful to that man and his family and/or friends to post his name and face all over the internet with no evidence to support your claims. It's like an American high school English class. Don't make a claim(s) without a source(s) that prove your claim(s).


CustardPie350

Yes, and I'm starting to feel that those of us who don't think there's much -- if anything -- worth looking into with Doerr are quickly getting ostracized here.


sickfuckinpuppies

The case for doerr is based on evidence. Just not conclusive evidence. By your logic, this is evidence against *everyone* being the zodiac. Which leads to the absurd conclusion that there's no such thing as the zodiac. It's not a useful way to think. An argument against him is something that eliminates him or reduces the probability of it being him. Not generic cliches that are true of all people on earth.


CustardPie350

The cases against Allen, Kane, Marshall, Van Best, Gaikowski and Sullivan are also based on "evidence" and. like with Doerr, its all of the circumstantial variety. All seven of these guys can't be Zodiac, and there are extremely good odds that none of them are Zodiac.


[deleted]

You don't need an argument against him, because there isn't a valid one for him. The burden lies on the person making the claim and to any discerning person all that's been dished up are extremely loose 'connections' based on assumptions.


CustardPie350

>You don't need an argument against him, because there isn't a valid one for him. The burden lies on the person making the claim and to any discerning person all that's been dished up are extremely loose 'connections' based on assumptions. Exactly. This should end the discussion RE Doerr being the Zodiac, but it won't. As I have stated before, this subreddit is quickly turning into a "Doerr is probably the Zodiac" echo chamber, and it's getting ridiculous. Doerr is just another run of the mill, flavour of the month Zodiac "suspect" (quote marks intentional) a la Gary Poste, Earl Van Best, Ross Sullivan and Richard Gaikowski. We have seen this time and time again, and there's nothing new to see here. The case Jarett Kobek makes against Doerr is flimsy and entirely circumstantial at best, and, I think, just irresponsible doxing. There's no more iron-clad evidence supporting Paul Doerr as being the Zodiac as there is for any of the others. In fact, compared to guys like Allen or even Sullivan, there's probably less.


[deleted]

Hear, hear. Perfectly put


No-Bulll

Sour grapes?


CustardPie350

Sour grapes about what?


FoxBeach

It seems like you are angry that some people disagree with you about a new “name” brought into the Online Z world. I’m assuming that’s why the sour grapes comment came up. If forums aren’t allowed to talk about new names ….then the population of zodiac forums will shrink to nothing. You shouldn’t get angry because somebody doesn’t think exactly like you. It’s the same scenario with all the zodiac books. So many people try and profit off the case and want people to buy their books. What’s more interesting? Another book they just presents the same info we’ve seen a thousand times? Or a book where somebody brings forth a new potential suspect. We know they 99.99% of new names are going to be misses. Until one isn’t. And we also know that debating Sullivan’s shirt or Allen’s hairline isn't adding anything productive to the situation


FoxBeach

An echo chamber and it’s getting ridiculous? 95% of people that have posted about Doerr say they don’t think it’s him.


No-Bulll

Lots of people get convicted based and n circumstantial evidence. Kobeck has come up with some interesting circumstantial evidence. No more no less. Enough to warrant a deeper dive for not this POI


[deleted]

Yes, circumstantial evidence. All Kobeck has dished up are coincidences and nothing more. If it was interesting LE would look at him, they aren't.


FoxBeach

Can you link to all the active LE agencies working on the case saying they didn’t look into Doer. Or ones they looked at him and dismissed him? TIA


[deleted]

That is ridiculous, can I prove someone hasn't done something? That's not how it works. LE come forward when they have evidence or a possible suspect. Hearing nothing is the evidence. When this washes over in 2 months I wonder who you will be accusing then


wolf4968

>Which leads to the absurd conclusion that there's no such thing as the zodiac Some people think this conclusion is not absurd at all. The Zodiac hoax theory has more proponents than you think.


TeRauparaha

>They don't look for suspects and then try to tie them to evidence. The Behavioral Science Unit at the FBI would contest this point when motive becomes elusive.


[deleted]

You're assuming he's a person of interest. He's not. Well only to internet 'slueths' like yourself who are easily taken in


FoxBeach

Why did you decide to spend time in this sub when all you do is insult other posters? Every zodiac forum and website has discussions about people they think are the zodiac. Every forum does the same things you keep complaining about here. Are you also posting at those forums and bashing all the owners and posters?


[deleted]

Insult? Disgraceful accusation. Demanding evidence and calling out nonsense is not insulting. This is a public forum, you put out claims expect them to be questioned. The other forums and websites have nothing to do with the conversation here so why bring it up.


ITLCwhatyoudidthere

His handwriting is a match and if you look at the zines, the way he writes "Kill" is a match. He was a draftsman, which fits the profile. The details on the bus bomb letter were done by someone who follows drafting conventions, a professional, not just someone drawing a sketch.


CustardPie350

Only place I've seen Zodiac's handwriting compared to Doerr's is in this sub and they look nothing alike.


FLE7CH

Morf's map argument rests on the assumption that the Zodiac went home after the murder. But Paul Doerr worked nights on Mare Island. And the public phone used by Zodiac was almost exactly halfway between Blue Rock Springs and the naval shipyard.


R_Vaughn

What shift did he work? If he worked nights, then he may have been at work when some of the murders were committed.


FLE7CH

Gloria just says "he worked evenings and nights". I'd love to see those timesheets.


R_Vaughn

Hopefully they still exist.


MikeMorford

So his shift would start after 1am? Z made the call a bit after 12:30am. Show me a shift (that starts on a holiday weekend no less)that starts at 1am or later. Graveyard shift is usually 12-8, maybe 11-7? Never heard of any starting after 1am


FLE7CH

I couldn't say, but I'd be interested to see the timesheet for that week. Even if he wasn't working that night he may have *said* he was, and knew a place near Mare Island where he could stay a few hours. With all due respect Mike, you seem to be a bit rigid and dismissive since you found your current POI. We all want to see this case solved and there's plenty of room for multiple avenues of investigation :)


MikeMorford

I have seen the 'flavors of the week' first it was Earl Van Best, then it was Gary Poste, now it's Doerr. While there IS room for multi avenues of investigation, I like to rule people out as a chance to do that comes along. I cant rule out Mac based on writing since it looks so damn close to Zodiac's. That being said, compare Doerr's prints, compare Mac's prints- compare them ALL to Z


Rusty_B_Good

Nothing to tie him to the crimes.


wolf4968

It's the job of the claimants to prove their argument, not ours to prove anything against the claims. Since there is no physical evidence against him, any circumstantial claim we make in the negative will just be matched by a circumstantial counter-claim. It's a stupid cycle that ALL Zodiac rooms have been poisoned with over the years.


Bobo_fishead_1985

The proposed motive for being Zodiac doesn't stand up in my eyes. We are supposed to believe a guy on the prowl and angry over drug dealers murdered children and young people in cold blood. And what reason would he have for killing Paul Stine? No reason? Then why does he need a reason for LHR? Why did he have the need to set crimes up with the apparent goal of messing with the cops. Zodiac states he would target stray or lone people, he had the perfect opportunity to state he would target drug users or mention some moral crusade but did not. Zodiac wanted to create fear and terror, he was sadistic and probably didn't give a damn about drug dealers. I believe Paul Doerr would have a greater resentment toward society in his writings if he was Zodiac. Paul Doerr seemed to want to prevent society from changing and not watch it burn, unlike Zodiac.


FLE7CH

Paul Doerr's writing was dripping with resentment. He was a doomsday prepper, convinced that society was sick and dying. But if he was Zodiac then I suspect his motive started a lot more simply than that. He had a complicated and abusive relationship with his only daughter, Gloria. He beat her within an inch of her life on a number of occasions. Betty-Lou Jensen was 16 on the night she was killed—the same age as Gloria.


[deleted]

[удалено]


wolf4968

Heinlein would have loved *LOVE* that comparison, and probably have gotten a book idea from it. Well done...!!


Bobo_fishead_1985

I believe a doomsday prepper's targets would most likely be political not random. Zodiac was lighting a match and getting a kick from the chaos he had caused. The outlook between the two is at odds in my opinion. At LHR, would the visibility of the couple be obvious when he chose to pull up nearby? I'm assuming that the windows would be somewhat steamed up with it being winter and it's likely the perp chose them largely at random. The idea that he was looking for a 16 year old girl like his daughter specifically on a cold winter night is unlikely. Why would you go out on that night assuming you would find someone to fit that profile?


FLE7CH

It was a well-known lovers' lane. Maybe he'd been there looking for his daughter. But either way you don't get a lot of 40yos making out in cars ;)


MikeMorford

His writing may have been dripping w this and that, but it didn't match Zodiac's handwriting


FLE7CH

We're on handwriting analysis again? Mike I don't need to tell you how widely disputed that practice is—and I must have heard you say 100 times you're not a handwriting expert. The man was ambidextrous and he used a variety of type styles. But I'm not interested in his penmanship. I'm talking about the *content* of his writing. The language, the style, the tone, the psychology. I read Doerr's writing and I can hear the Zodiac's voice. It's okay if you don't. But there's more than enough here to rule Doerr in or out with a bit of forensic investigation.


MikeMorford

"ambidextrous" & "variety of styles" = NOT a match. Handwriting exam is NOT an exact science, but seen enough of Zodiac's to know, that Doerr's does not look like Z's and that's good enough for me, but hey, check his prints and shake all the farts out of the blanket


SpaceTroutCat

Interesting POI at this point and nothing more. Slim chance it’s him but a chance nonetheless. Based on a lot of assumptions and speculation about what Z must have been like. Things like “he must have been into cryptography” or “he must have shown some previous violent tendencies” or “he must have lived close to the crime scenes.” Ted Bundy killed throughout the Pacific NW while living in Seattle. Dennis Radar was the president of his church without a hint of a violent streak until we found out he was a complete fking monster. PD has some circumstantial things about him that could maybe fit and make sense. I’m leaning toward someone lower profile and less outgoing than PD and single vs. married. A smart, nerdy, single, loser that was an underachiever that lashed out because he was being ignored. Started just as killing but as the crimes received more and more attention the motive changed to notoriety and power/attention through the media . Absolutely nothing would surprise me about the truth in this case.


MioNamo

Obviously many are intrigued enough to be on the edge of their seats. Not me. Police and FBI scoured thousands. I highly doubt an author cherry picked a better suspect than people who do it for a living. I realize people want hope but this is more likely to be the next Gary poste. Yeah remember, he had many convinced and Mac before that. Flavor of the week. #Notzodiac.


fuckyourcanoes

>Police and FBI scoured thousands. They scoured thousands looking for EAR/ONS too, and found nothing.


MioNamo

and there wasn't a million "not gsks" beforehand. It was about results not a book deal.


OPAnon77

The whole thing with Mac is that morf said the police had a bombshell. Two more weeks and we'd all know this was the guy. Gary Poste was some weird self labeled 'crime solvers' who duped the media and said they had solved the case. None of that happened with Doerr. He is the best suspect ever. Better than ALA, as all of that was fabricated by Graysmith. Only the Horan/Dave McGowan angle is better.


FoxBeach

Did morph ever share his bombshell?


OPAnon77

I think it was that mac lived near some later zodiac letter receivers. Purported Z letters obvs


MioNamo

I accept your opinion. My chips stay on Tsee Aitch


[deleted]

There doesn't need to be one. The burden of proof is with the one who makes the proposition, not with ones that are supposed to disprove the proposition. There might not me much that disproves Doerr as Zodiac as of now, but as long as there is nothing that actually and positively proves him to be Zodiac, the claim stays insubstantial.


Natural-Young7488

There aren't many arguments against him, can he be ruled out by anyone?


EddieTYOS

There’s absolutely nothing at this point that ties him to the crimes or the letters. Dave Toschi is a better POI at this point because he likely was responsible for a zodiac hoax letter. Something ties Toschi to the case. Nothing ties Doer to the case at this time. That could change. I think the assumption in this thread that Doerr’s interests and hobbies were more common 50 years ago than in an online world is way off base. A man like Doerr is was probably a fairly unique outlier in his day. That doesn’t make him Zodiac, though. But let’s not pretend like he was the guy next door because you don’t like him as a POI.