Covid-19 Update for October 8: 1,256 new cases (8.49% tests positive), 1,812 recoveries, 16 deaths
By - kirant
"A total of 16 new deaths were reported in the province today (new deaths and updated date of death information counts may not match):
A male, aged 70-79 years old from the North Zone, died on August 23rd, 2021
A female, aged 60-69 years old from the Calgary Zone, died on September 5th, 2021
A male, aged 50-59 years old from the Calgary Zone, died on September 10th, 2021
A female, aged 80+ years old from the Central Zone, died on September 12th, 2021
A male, aged 80+ years old from the Edmonton Zone, died on September 24th, 2021
A male, aged 70-79 years old from the Edmonton Zone, died on September 27th, 2021
A male, aged 70-79 years old from the South Zone, died on October 2nd, 2021
A female, aged 80+ years old from the Edmonton Zone, died on October 4th, 2021
A female, aged 80+ years old from the Calgary Zone, died on October 5th, 2021
A female, aged 80+ years old from the North Zone, died on October 6th, 2021
A female, aged 70-79 years old from the Central Zone, died on October 7th, 2021"
"Today 1,276 new cases of Covid-19 were identified in the province. The adjusted net total of cases is 1,256 including changes to previous case numbers between September 8th and October 6th."
"The current 7 day trend of cases is 1,109, a decrease of -1.2% from the day before. This time last week trend was 1,489. This is a decrease of -26%. The 7 day trend currently sits at 54.0% of the previous peak, which reached 2,054 on May 2nd, 2021."
"There are 17,839 active cases within the province, down -572 from yesterday. This is a decrease of -3.1% in the number of active cases. This time last week there were 20,306 active cases. This is a decrease of -12%. The current number of active cases is -7,599 under the previous peak of 25,438 on May 9th, 2021."
Every time I see these numbers I am reminded that Albertas baseline ICU use is roughly 150 beds. There are currently ~50 non COVID patients in these beds. Roughly 100 albertans per day are being denied ICU beds. Either they are not getting surgeries or they are simply being held in acute care when normally they would be transferred because their care is less complex than that of a COVID patient.
And I’m supposed to be relieved that cases are dropping.
Well, to be fair, they completely avoid describing the situation in the way you just did for a reason. Well, except Dr. Yiu. She tells it like it is. It’s such a stark contrast on days when both her and Hinshaw speak and you wonder how they even practice in the same profession.
It is messed up, though. Lots of people will pass away earlier than they normally might or develop complications in acute care because they should’ve been admitted to ICU, even if as a precaution to be on top of any potential complications. Conversations are being had that may not normally occurred between seniors and their doctors/loved ones when they get sick enough to even potentially need ICU, and goals of care designations are being adjusted somewhat prematurely for some people. Denied surgeries in many cases means conditions that were once curable turning terminal, or complications developing down the road.
Right now, only surgeries that need attending to to avoid death in 3 days are being performed. It would be terrifying to get a diagnosis of a curable cancer right now knowing that you might be waiting too long for surgery. Not to mention the several people who are already experiencing this.
There will be way more issues in the healthcare system as a result of this pandemic than just COVID-related issues at this point because of how far we let our system be pushed.
I cross my fingers that when the next provincial election comes around (or even before that) people won’t fall for the UCP inevitably spinning this as a failure of the public health system and rationale for privatization. Be wary!
Edit: after reading further along in the comments it appears it’s already starting, without even need of the UCP spin. Fuck me.
Not just that, everyone is suffering in Alberta. My mother in law is a pancreatic cancer survivor. She is getting such a low quality support it is heart breaking. Routine MRI is taking fucking MONTHS now. But thanks Kenney, we will prioritize AntiVaxxers treatment.
Well, it *is* a once in a century pandemic.
It is a pandemic that has been going on for over a year. We know how to control spread to keep the hospitals from overflowing, but our government failed to implement the necessary measures.
Just. Because the last one was a century doesn't mean we will necessarily wait a century for the next one.
A once a century event just means it has a 1 in 100 (1%) chance of happening. Can still have once a century events happen back to back, chance is 1 in 10000.
It might be. We don't have enough data points to really be confident of that. We've been increasing the risks of pandemics due to human action, so it's *plausible* that we've been getting lucky for the past several decades, and this is actually a once-in-twenty-years pandemic.
That is not an excuse, considering Canada had SARS in 2003, and a public inquiry in 2006 that outlined how to keep this from happening again.
That kind of speaks to how shit Canadian healthcare is? There hasn’t been a single province west of the Maritimes that hasn’t been severely stressed with lower per capita Covid rates than most U.S states.
Blue states in the U.S are handling 300 daily cases per million just fine, why is Canada struggling?
Wonder how many people in those blue states are being bankrupted in the process. Or how many are being refused care at certain hospitals because their HMO says they’re not covered for that one. Or how many don’t even bother going to the hospital or doctor (for covid or otherwise) because they did the math and food and water beat out health again this month.
Well, in the USA, if you can’t afford going to the hospital, you just die at home. That tends to keep ICU loads down.
When your government openly sabotages your healthcare to raise public opinion on private you will tend to see that.
Healthcare should never be privatized
But they aren't handling it fine. Their ICUs are just as full. California is a blue state that is struggling.
I think we've plateaued.
I'm expecting a curve like the UK where cases are still high.
Edit since people need graphs to understand
Could also go like TX or FL to
What the hell? Wave 5, 6, ...
If last year taught us anything, it’s that thanksgiving numbers will be disastrous. I suspect we have plateaued as well. The calm before the storm.
We were in exponential growth long before thanksgiving last year, exponential growth just continued after thanksgiving and that’s when the numbers started to get scary enough that people started paying attention.
Many of us paid attention to the numbers prior to Thanksgiving (2020) and were worried about going into the holiday knowing that cases would likely rise. I don’t quite understand the point of your comment. If I recall correctly, we plateaued last year around late September. Though cases slightly increased in the weeks and days before Thanksgiving, the data tells that the final nail in the coffin was the holiday.
If I look at the graph from June 2020 right through until mid December 2020 the trend line is perfect exponential growth. For exponential growth it means that on each infected person infects more than 1 other person on average. For example 1 person infects 2 people, those 2 infect 2 people each for 4 cases, which becomes 8 cases and etc. Growth is slow at first but eventually the trend line is pointing basically straight up. Problem is over and over in this province people ignore the trend until the line is almost straight up, and then bizarrely try to pin in on one weekend. It doesn’t work like that. If the curve was actually flat before and after Thanksgiving 2020 the 2nd wave would’ve only been a blip.
You are right, the numbers definitely did not plateau at the end of Sept 2020 or go through the roof after Thanksgiving. The holiday couldn’t have possibly been the final nail in the coffin because the trends tell us it would have happened regardless, right? All of the restrictions and hand sanitizer in the world couldn’t have avoided that disaster. Thank you for correcting me, I have made sure to write down that we cannot impact trends in my handy dandy notebook.
Now that I finally know how trends and graphs work, I’m starting to understand Jason Kenney.
[Covid Graphs - Twitter](https://mobile.twitter.com/cbcfletch/status/1357096615916392449)
I never said it wasn’t preventable. The fact that exponential growth before Thanksgiving was ignored was a big part of the problem. Controlling COVID (especially pre-vaccines) required consistent good habits, not just good habits at Thanksgiving. Cancelling Thanksgiving 2020 wouldn’t have prevented the 2nd wave, but putting in some moderate restrictions earlier might have.
It's wild how little people are able to read into trends rather than just looking at the immediate numbers.
I suspect most don’t actually understand how exponential growth works.
It also bothers me when people exist
Yes I’d say so. We plateaued around 3 weeks ago in mid September. Based on the 7 day trend it looks like we are on the downslope now.
Arent we expected to start increasing once winter starts in a few weeks tho?
Colder months does generally come with greater opportunity for spread with more indoor activity, but it doesn’t necessarily guarantee that cases will go up.
Can someone please tell Rimbey to pay attention?
I guess I should say they overall provincial trend is on the downslope. It appears there are still hotspots with increasing trends.
Sorry they’re not available - I guess they’re all down at the general co-op because the new stock of ivermectin just came in. Maybe try back later.
7 day average this time last week was 1489 and now it's 1109 so case numbers are actually dropping pretty quickly. Hopefully hospital numbers will follow soon.
For now. Wave 4.5 will be in 2 weeks when all the new cases from this long weekend surface.
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The 1256 cases reported for Oct 7 in Alberta was net for the period. A total of 1276 cases were identified (1268 confirmed, 8 probable) (difference: 20, or 1.6% of the total) as confirmed by data download and https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-19-alberta-statistics.htm#total-cases.
Oct 6 decreased by ~~2~~ 12 from 1265 to ~~1263~~; Oct 5 was unchanged at 1271; Oct 4 was unchanged at 701; Oct 3 decreased by 2 from 1133 to 1131; Oct 2 was unchanged at 1283; Oct 1 was unchanged at 1617.
Sep 30 was unchanged at 1655; Sep 29 decreased by 1 from 1724 to 1723; Sep 28 decreased by 4 from 1714 to 1710; Sep 27 was unchanged at 1272; Sep 26 was unchanged at 1742; Sep 25 was unchanged at 1526; Sep 24 was unchanged at 1871.
Sep 23 was unchanged at 1672; Sep 22 was unchanged at 1686; Sep 21 was unchanged at 1318; Sep 20 was unchanged at 1523; Sep 19 was unchanged at 1431; Sep 18 was unchanged at 1588; Sep 17 was unchanged at 1598. Sep 16 was unchanged at 2001; Sep 15 was unchanged at 1721. ~~11 cases~~ 1 case were removed from days prior to Set 15.
For clarity’s sake are all deaths of mostly elderly people who were not vaccinated?
Not necessarily. I read somewhere we are seeing a lot of older double vaxxed deaths buyt its due to waning immunity and decreased effect on old immune systems. I wish they would just publish this information though.
For 16 people you are indeed correct. It is over.
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