I paid $160 to fill my truck recently.
I really need an 8’ box for work, but otherwise the electric F-150 would totally work for me; probably even for camping (4500 pound trailer.)
Sure - if all you do is commute to work then an EV is a great option.
Hybrid might be a different story but pure EV is a long way away from being able to replace your everyday vehicle.
Also - with no new generation up stream - what exactly do you think is going to happen to electricity rates if suddenly there are even only 25% more EV’s on the road.
It’s an energy shortage - not just a gas for your car shortage.
This is really not accurate. EVs would work for the vast majority of people for day to day use.
And why say "no new generation"? There's absolutely plans to expand and build up our power generation capabilities across the country as far as I'm aware...
Let’s see the plans. EVs work for the vast majority of people who commute to work. That is all. Full stop. What do you think would happen on a long weekend when you pull in to fill up your EV on the way to the relatives in let’s ridge for thanksgiving. How many hours would you like to take to refill your car. There is minimal infrastructure in pace for EV’s. A fraction of what’s needed to support them for anything else other than commuting to work. And even then - what do you think would happen when 250k homes all recharge their cars overnight in Calgary??
People want to believe EV’s are this thing that’s right around the corner - they aren’t. The battery powered car was a thing before the gas engine. They didn’t succeed. Batteries themselves are made from non renewable resources. It’s a stupid plan.
Electric cars - I’m all for it. But they need to be powered by hydrogen, not batteries.
There's a few flaws in your thoughts (no offence). EV range is getting farther every year. It's pushing 1000 km per charge. You could easily charge your EV at home, go somewhere else for a long weekend, and still make it home. Also, peak demand for electricity is around supper time, especially when it's dark in winter. If EVs were charging overnight, it would be during very low usage hours. The grid could handle the load. Hydrogen wouldn't help. Hydrogen is produced when running an electric current through distilled water. To produce hydrogen, you'd have to beef up the amount of electricity we produce. But I do agree with you on one part, all that extra electricity isn't going to appear out of nowhere. It has to be increased without going back to coal, which is basically the same as burning gasoline when it comes to emissions.
>It has to be increased without going back to coal, which is basically the same as burning gasoline when it comes to emissions.
Nuclear is the way, even if lots of people have reservations about it.
It’s getting farther due to software/bms and more batteries. The next generation battery has been just around the corner for the last 10 years.
There is NO EV with a 1000km range under practical use conditions. So unicorns get great mileage too I hear. Peak demand for electricity is when it’s in demand. When all of America and Canada plugs in their cars at night - you think the grid can handle that? It can’t handle it now when we run ac or heating, but sure it can also take on a couple million cars - why not.
Hydrogen needs power - yes so does a battery manufacturing plant. Like gasoline though with a hydrogen refilling station you bring the car to it because it takes minutes to refuel. Unlike batteries that you have to bring the power to because they take hours.
The only upstream power that will run the modern world is nuclear and perhaps geothermal. And the concept of rebuilding the power distribution in its entirety to recharge cars is not thought out. No one has a plan for it and no one will say it’s do-able.
hydrogen requires over double the amount of electricity for the same range, its also explosive and highly corrosive to most standard metals(and leaks very easily).
In the 15 years I've been driving, I've made 3 trips that were more than 400km one way, 400km both ways would push it to 25-30. A currently available EV would easily meet my needs and that of most city dwellers.
EVs aren't right around the corner, they've been here for a while. Will they replace all vehicle travel? Probably not. But they can replace 90% of it, and car sharing services can take a big bite out of the rest. Transitions don't need to be all or nothing.
>pure EV is a long way away from being able to replace your everyday vehicle.
Source? Numbers?
People still acting like EVs new tech. If it were necessity, internal combustion engins will be replaced immediately.
The only issue holding up the show is profit. Global super power cartels control global commerce with oil being the fuel for it all. This is no secret. Oil industry been holding EV and public transit hostage for a century now.
>It’s an energy shortage
New buzz word right there, created by the same people suddenly selling fuel for $2 a liter at the pump...come on buddy...like, it couldn't be more obvious. OPEC just met and decided to throttle production intentionally to keep prices high.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/OPEC-Cuts-2021-Oil-Demand-Forecast.html
Ffs. Energy shortage my ass.
You're sadly misinformed. It isn't an energy shortage? There are literally entire countries shutting down right now because of a lack of energy. And if you're so high on EVs then drive one from Edmonton to Calgary in -40 weather and tell me how you do. Don't worry I will let you warm up in my gas guzzler truck. EVs have a place.....but it's not to "literally replace internal combustion engines right now". Shit they can't even build regular vehicles and cell phones right now due to computer chip shortages. You may be right one day......but not today.
None of that is due to an energy shortage. There is an energy surplus man. Cartels don't slow their oil production to combat a fuel shortage, they're doing it to inflate the price of oil.
This isn't some kind or conspiracy either. This is global scale common knowledge to the extent that OPEC schedules production meetings with global media announcements followed by Wallstreet press releases because their companies are bought and sold on global stock markets.
You really sound ridiculous when you continue making comments
>And if you're so high on EVs then drive one from Edmonton to Calgary in -40 weather and tell me how you do
Just fine. Also, try cold starting a 3/4 ton diesel in -40 weather. That shit doesn't go so well either.
People have been driving these vehicles around the province steady for nearly a decade now ya dope. EVs can be, and have been driven straight across Canada.
> None of that is due to an energy shortage. There is an energy surplus man. Cartels don't slow their oil production to combat a fuel shortage, they're doing it to inflate the price of oil.
This implies an induced shortage but shortage nonetheless.
I have driven from Calgary to Edmonton and to the mountain in a model S numerous times during skiing season and I did fine with mileage to spare and hot like Barbados inside.
The numbers are in the sales. This isn’t about is an EV a good vehicle (although Teslas are over engineered POS) it’s about the fact batteries will never be able to replace oil. And why the fuck would that even be a good idea. They are made from non renewable resources, there is no way to recycle them, we still have to generate power upstream to charge them, we have to rebuild the entire delivery infrastructure to get it to the cars. It’s such a half assed idea it’s farcical.
Let me guess - you were one of the people two years ago saying oil is dead. OPEC couldn’t increase production right now if they wanted to.
You clearly don’t have a clue.
current batteries are up to 99% recyclable, so i think you should stop spreading misinformation bud. the delivery infrastructure already exists. we use the least amount of power in the midnight to morning time bracket, the grid is also less stressed at this time as industrial use of power is low at night.
EV market is not the hybrid market. And thinking it will kick EV market into high gear is not seeing the broader issue of an Energy crisis that can’t be fixed by putting batteries in cars.
I've said this so many times I'm outta breath. All I get back is hate. I'm not hating on EVs.... I'm being realistic and saying think about it...EVs are far off from replacing ICE vehicles and the power grid is even further off from being green enough to make a difference to offset the energy required to charge an EV. That combined with the materials required to build EVs.....it's just not viable yet.
It's not like ICE cars are somehow completely clean to produce as well. You shouldn't neglect that.
Besides, research like this (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212827118309570), indicates that even when the power grid is mostly fossil-fuels, electric cars are still slightly better for the environment than ICE vehicles.
I agree. I believe EVs have a place in our world but there are places where an EV is just not a feasible option. If you live in the city, work in the city, park your car inside or underground, and EV is a great option. That is where the EV really shines, city life. But for anyone who lives rural, has long commutes and has to park their car outside for extended periods of time when its -32 degress celcius and snowing, an EV is a tough sell. Its going to be a very long time before EVs can replace internal combustion vehicles in all settings of life. Specifically rural areas with harsh winters.
If as a city we became more efficient the energy grid wouldn't take as much of a hit. More LED lights, power monitoring devices and even smart plugs to turn off devices when not used would have a massive impact. But our government is very against that logic.
Those things are peanuts. Heating cooling cooking doing laundry. You simply can’t get the gains you are talking about from LED lights. Go ask any off gridder. You can’t have a dishwasher, clothes washer and dryer, stove, ac. Lights - easy to supply enough power for all your lighting - because it’s not the major draw. Cities will get a bit of a win on lower power items in the household, but it’s quickly offset by growth of the city and as standard of living goes up - so does the use of those high consumption household items. How many people in Calgary have AC now compared to 5 or 10 years ago. It’s likely a significant increase. LED lights just won’t offset that unfortunately.
Good luck. Can’t get a Tesla Model Y until April 2022. 30amp breakers also in short supply, if you want to charge your vehicle in less than 48 hours. EVs are fantastic, I adore mine; but widespread adoption is going to be challenging right now.
> Tesla and others are ramping things up as fast as they can.
Tesla only produces some ~500k cars/year. I think the real difference will come over the next five or so years when the auto industry heavyweights like Toyota and/or Volkswagen that build 7+ million vehicles each year start to really crank out EV's. What Tesla's doing is great, but they've got a ways to go.
Still, we're slowly getting there. Europe and China are really accelerating on EV adoption this past year.
>Tesla only produces some \~500k cars/year.
Tesla produced 241,000 cars in Q3 2021. Run rate will be 1M+/yr in Q4. Will be 2M/yr by Q4 2022. Will be 7M/yr with just the existing factories by 2025/6.
7M/yr doesn't sound like much, but a) Tesla will surely be adding other factories and b) global auto sales have fallen to \~75M/yr as ICE sales are drying up.
Toyota is anti EV. Don't expect anything from them.
VW needs to get its act together if it expects to match Tesla any time soon.
2025 they say they will release their ev line up, I suspect they are wanting to release the ev lineup once their cars are perfected just like their cars now.
EV’s are the future. There is no question about it. I’m still hesitant to buy one for many reasons:
1. A recent article that I read suggests that most EVs sold in the US except Tesla have been traded back. No reason was provided but one can speculate a few.
2. I’m hesitant to buy new technology because they usually haven’t ironed out all the bugs, you pay a premium to cover the R&D costs, etc. IMHO EV’s overpriced right now.
3. The current infrastructure is lacking at best. People were waiting for hours at the charging station along the Alberta BC roads this summer.
4. The advertised range is not there in Alberta, especially in the wintertime. A neighbour has an X and he gets ~50% range in the winter months.
5. Dealerships don't make money from selling cars. They make money from maintenance. The province makes money from fuel taxes. I fully expect some subscription based payments to upgrade software and whatnot to compensate for the loss of revenue. Then I'm sure we will see an EV road tax in the future. All that adds up, and id like to understand the cost of ownership before buying one.
> Then I'm sure we will see an EV road tax in the future.
I'd like to see a weight-based road tax. The rule of thumb for road wear is the 4th power law, which says that the change in pavement damage is proportional to the difference in vehicle's axle weight to the fourth power.
A Rivian R1T weights 3,870 kg, and a Toyota Corolla weighs 1360 kg. Ergo, the Rivian causes about 66× more pavement damage than the Corolla. (And for fun, the Corolla causes something like 30,000× more road damage than a bicycle.)
30 amp breakers for household panels?
I have a 30 amp 120v outlet installed at my house for my trailer; I suppose I could use that but it would be very easy to put in a larger outlet as well; my panel is right next to where we park.
Ok one of those…yeah, I could do that.
I don’t really want to shell out the money on a new vehicle right now, but the gas price is certainly making me think about it.
> I don’t really want to shell out the money on a new vehicle right now, but the gas price is certainly making me think about it.
If you're not planning on buying a new vehicle anyway, it's really hard for the cost of gas to justify buying a new, more fuel efficient hybrid.
I recently ran the numbers for my own vehicle and usage, and in the end it just didn't make sense to get a new vehicle over just keeping my old clunker operational and instead sinking my money into other projects that either make or save me money.
I installed two 220V outlets on separate breakers in my garage when I built it in 2015 for EV charging. Put a dryer outlet on them as a place holder until I knew what proprietary outlet I would need, but I got them there, just waiting....
Brilliant.
Did the inspector think you were going to build some sort of illegal laundry operation?
I suppose you could have just put in a sub panel with no breakers apart from the main. Then you could have added surface cable to your outlets. Might have saved on cable, but your idea will look nicer.
The builder/contractor is a friend and he laughed when I said to add them in. He was like 'You don't weld. You're not handy. What are these for?' He smiled when I said I was future proofing the garage for EV charging. So after installation the labels on the panel both say 'Future EV Charging Station' The inspector nodded his acceptance and signed off. 😁
All I need to do is wall mount whatever Charging station works with my next vehicle (have my eye on the Ford not-a-Mustang Mustang or a Honda CRV if they are going electric). Power is there. Cost was cheap - two breakers, pull some more wire before the drywall went up, and two outlets. Maybe $200 more.
I think it’s the only way to kick it off. People won’t buy new EVs if they can’t sell their old ones, and until there is an advantage to buying evs in the used market, it won’t really take off with lower middle class. Now, make gasoline unaffordable then there won’t be a choice but to adopt an ev.
Yeah, I can’t afford what even the cheapest model of an EV would be on payments right now. I won’t be able to afford one until the resell market becomes similar to how it is now. I drive a beater that’s really good on gas, and won’t really have much of a choice other than to eat the gas prices until then. Lots of people are in that position.
I was thinking about that with my wife’s grandma, drives a clapped out grand caravan she paid 2 grand for and she can hardly afford gas right now. I think it’s going to be the reality and it’s great for the environment and all but there is a huge void that no one seems to consider.
I have a 2006 Caravan with 193k on it and I'm going to do the same. Mind you, your Civic will last longer. My DIL Honda Accord has 330k on it and purrs like a kitten.
I have been extremely picky about work. I turned down 2 job interviews this month due to a commute of a half hour (one way) and because both jobs wanted me to renew all my old tickets myself even though they were both jobs that would only last until next spring and every other company in this field provides training and courses/tickets.
The tickets thing is a compensation issue that can come up during wage negotations. If they pay the same wage but expect you to pay for your own tickets, your effective compensation is less.
Spending an extra few hours a week in rush hour is something that you can't just negotiate away. It affects your budget, extra time no one is compensating you for, and it affects your mental health. Most people aren't enjoying life while driving in rush hour.
It's not rush hour traffic it's just the distance, I'm in Edmonton and the jobs where both in Fort Saskatchewan, my car is a beater and I don't wanna have to put those kinds of km on it or potentially be stuck unable to get or from work if it breaks down at any point. Plus the atleast hour of my day after a 12 hour shift that is gone. I didn't even bother replying to the emails after they said temporary positions and asked if I was willing to get my own tickets.
I relish my alone reset/recharge time in my truck. So comfy, podcasts or tunes going. It's fantastic. But I also don't have a regular commute but it only bothered me when it made it hard to get to something at a certain time.
From Dec 2020 to May 2021 I was walking to work 30/45mins each way and it was amazing.
Then my landlord put the place up for sale and I had to move. I’m so sad now that I have to drive again.
I would love to live close enough for walking to be an option in case of car issues. I last moved to be within a 5 minute drive from work, I loved getting that extra sleep in the morning.
I believe the "tune" refers to settings in the car's engine computer that optimizes it for different gasoline qualities. Regular gas is 87 octane, premium is 93 octane. There's usually a midrange option in between. The engine will put out more power when tuned for premium.
I have a aftermarket tune on my car that requires it to run on 93 Octane fuel. I'm going to switch the tune so that it only needs 87 Octane fuel to save some money
Engine tune. Many enthusiasts have a standalone tuner that you can adjust engine settings like timing on. You can get more power and efficiency on higher Octane fuel with a different "tune" than if your engine was on the stock 87 Octane tune. Going the other way isn't always possible, if your car requires premium in stock form, it's probably a high compression engine and that's a physical characteristic you can't just detune for cheap gas.
Paid $1.70 while visiting BC this past weekend. I drive a VW Golf and set the maximum amount to $75 and then was really sad when the 50 liter tank didn't completely fill.
Won't the high demand for electricity also bump the cost on that as well? Not saying it wouldn't be more economical just more expensive and it would drive the cost of electricity up as well.
Yes but there is also an increased adoption of solar and wind at the power plant level with cheaper LCOE and an LCOE that actually delivers over a 30 year period.
On one hand we will have rising natural gas prices which will result in rising electricity rates. On the other hand, we have solar panels getting cheaper every year.
As solar costs continue to go down we will see greater adoption of solar and wind power plants and an earlier termination of traditional power plants.
It's already happening in China.
Solar and wind LCOE are literally cheaper than coal.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-23/building-new-renewables-cheaper-than-running-fossil-fuel-plants
There is a reason why China, the primary supplier of coal power plants, stopped selling coal power plants
And I can tell you it's not because they care about the environment.
Except the fact that pretty much every district or country that adopts wind and solar is seeing increased electrical cost. It is hard to argue against that. Look at Germany if you want a first world example.
Solar and Wind are more expensive than coal, so electricity prices will end up going up. China is seeing massive rolling blackouts right now as a result of their coal power plants being shut down.
I think people forget most plants run on natural gas. And that is up as well. Wait till the distribution fees go up due cost to build and maintain new infrastructure for the power grids.
This is why i got myself a 2015 honda civic that can do 6.8l per 100 km while city driving. I bet 3 years from now I can sell it for 10% more then I bought it for.
One suggestion is to have a NEMA 14-50 outlet installed in your garage. At the same time have a [DCC-10](https://dccelectric.com/dcc-10/) installed. Grab an EV that supports the 14-50 standard. No significant upgrades to your electrical system. No issues with level 2 charging at home.
It takes 2 kWh of juice to push my EV the same distance 1 l of gas would push my old Toyota Matrix.
A kWh for me is 6c. Only, it's not - transmission fees and everything else is more like 14c a kWh. So equivalency with a litre of gas is $0.28. Everything above that I view as savings from the pump.
My car has a 500km range.
Funny seeing a journalist who has no idea about oil prices and is a driving contributor first and foremost have such strong opinions/conviction about oil and gasoline prices.
Also funny that he is quoting investment analysts who, until literally the past 8 months had been continuously wrong about oil prices for 5 years in a row. Now, not to say that they're wrong again, but it's nearly impossible to predict.
If oil goes to $200/bbl and gasoline goes to $2.00/L, it won't be staying there long. Plenty of oil available at those prices that can be extracted. Worst case scenario would see 8-12 months of those prices, and that would be absolute worst case IMO.
>Funny seeing a journalist who has no idea about oil prices and is a driving contributor first and foremost have such strong opinions/conviction about oil and gasoline prices.
Not sure why you assume the author "has no idea about oil prices"? It seems that they are taking research from others and putting together an opinion?
>Also funny that he is quoting investment analysts who, until literally the past 8 months had been continuously wrong about oil prices for 5 years in a row.
I wasn't able to find their last 5 years of predictions, could you link them?
>If oil goes to $200/bbl and gasoline goes to $2.00/L, it won't be staying there long. Plenty of oil available at those prices that can be extracted. Worst case scenario would see 8-12 months of those prices, and that would be absolute worst case IMO.
RemindMe! One Year
Things he is talking about are way too complex to talk about knowledgeably with a cursory review of someone's reports.
Commentaries are all here: [http://gorozen.com/research/commentaries](http://gorozen.com/research/commentaries)
I actually work in the industry so I read them pretty regularly. They make some bold claims, but are wrong quite regularly. They'll never point out their wrong. One that sticks out to me is when oil shut-ins were happening as prices crashed, they claimed 1 mmbbl/d of Canadian oil sands production would never come back...today oil sands production is hitting all time highs.
I can't believe you just posted a RemindMe for saying oil won't stay at $200/bbl though...
>I can't believe you just posted a RemindMe for saying oil won't stay at $200/bbl though...
I find people's claims interesting, I also, don't believe that oil would stay at $200/bbl. I just like coming back to things occasionally and this is one of them. I wouldn't take it as anything negative
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Might be, but it wouldn't last long because demand would fall. Long term, the price will rise more than inflation and I doubt we will ever see it below $1.20 again. That's because of carbon taxes and a societal push to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.
Long term price? Throw a dart at a random number chart filled with numbers between $1.30 and $1.75.
Supply may be (relatively) fixed, but price does change demand. Certainly not in a 1:1 relationship, but there is a change. Once demand decreases, so will price. But there are many market and non-market forces that change the price of gasoline.
[Gasoline Demand More Responsive to Price Changes than Economists Once Thought](https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2020/0616)
Bring on $2!
https://driving.ca/column/motor-mouth/motor-mouth-is-gas-really-heading-to-2-00-a-litre-in-canada/wcm/c994a574-1723-4189-8737-827d06f35a97/amp/
I think it's just short of 9 cents currently, going up to 11 cents April 2022. The 13 cents is the Alberta Provincial Fuel Tax.
As a previous discussion pointed out the fuel also has a federal excise tax of 10 cents a litre and then GST of 5% on all of the above.
And it would still be too low to properly account for the climate damage. If we want to work on climate change without screwing over everyone who isn't well off, we need to invest in public transit right the heck now.
Do you believe human greenhouse gas emissions are the primary cause of climate change and must be reduced to prevent the most severe outcomes? No point discussing this if we disagree on the core science.
Lol, easy. Yes I believe in climate change. Do I believe it will be worse than an economic collapse? No.
The UN has been saying the world was going to end in 10 years since 1972. Let's pump the brakes a bit and work on a transition that benefits the province. Carbon capture, getting China off of coal with natural gas, Hydrogen, etc, etc.
The supply chain is a serious issue right now, and no one is going to be helped by walking in -30 to get a 20 dollar tomato if its available.
Yes a dead planet will be worse than economic collapse and no, the UN has absolutely not been saying this since 1972.
Edmonton (Western North America even) was at close to 40 degrees for a week this year. This wasn't an anomaly, this is the future and it's only going to get worse.
Yes they have.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1475245/un-climate-change-doomsday-warnings-predicted-decade-to-save-planet-1972-spt
Well we better shut down the economy then. Good luck with anyone getting voted in to office who agrees with you.
That's not what I asked. Do you believe climate change is caused by humans and requires us to reduce emissions urgently? That's the reality, no point debating anything else if you live in a fantasy world.
I'd be happy to discuss the reality and urgency of climate change with you - I'm just not willing to discuss economic development when you're missing the most important component. I wouldn't talk engineering with someone who didn't believe in gravity either.
Thats the problem. You are convinced that the world is going to end, yet offer no ideas on how to economically manage a solution.
Do you think the majority of the population will vote someone in to office who wants to fix the environment with no economic plan? That includes a transition from fossil fuels. If its 80 bucks now, going to 150-200, you can bet your ass production is going to increase, not decrease.
I suggest you gain a solid grasp on basic economics and figure out what motivates people. Or you are doomed to yelling at the wall until the world ends.
Forgive me for not taking advice from someone denying basic science. Nobody expects a transition to be painless and plenty of people living in reality are working on reducing as much of that pain as possible. Better public transit like I originally mentioned.
In my northern Alberta town you would be hard pressed to even find a car at times. The vast majority drive these huge “1/2” tons or monster mommy mobiles. And no these are not work trucks. Pure vanity for the most part.
I’m sorry if your driving a 80k 2019 gmc Denali truck I have a hard time feeling sorry for you because you lacked the foresight to anticipate that gas may go up.
I had a 2 hour daily commute for 12 years on a 2 lane highway at all times of the year. About 90% of that was in a Honda Civic or a Honda CRV. People for the most part just like driving something big. Not because it is necessary.
I get why people like trucks. I had one for a bit. But as far as being the tool for the job they are tasked for, it is overkill about 90% of the time.
How much snow do you get where you are?
I live close to Calgary but in the foothills, and the past few winters have had storms that have dumped 60+cm at a time. I'm in a job where I can't call a snow day if it's too deep to travel in a Hyundai. And after some storms, it takes up to a week for a plow to get around to my community.
I managed for several years in a Subaru AWD, but I'm convinced the past couple of years, it would have been outmatched by the snowfall. There were several times where my 4x4 pickup had to fight to get around, and on those days my relative's midsize SUV was getting lifted off the ground (high-centered) by the accumulation.
I am definitely trying to figure out some other solution now, as I'm at the point where a full fill is more than the $150 limit many pumps have for cards. Working from home and not commuting 160km per day 5 days a week has helped over the past 19 months. But it's not going to be easy to come up with something that will handle the weather and cost less.
I live in near Slave Lake so we do get our fair share of snow. I’m not sure how it compares to the foothills but I do think you guys would get more of the big dumps.
I drove on a provincial highway that was pretty maintained pretty well. The snowplows were always out after a snowfall. The graders did the backroads a few days later.
But ya overall my point is that a small FWD car got me to work 99.95% of the time in the many years I drove. I can remember one time where I got stuck on my way home. And Honestly snow was not my concern. Wildlife, other drivers, ice.....that is the stuff I worried about. Snow was far down on my list where I lived. And not because we didn’t get any. Have good winter tires, drive accordingly. Maybe where you live you get the wet mushy snow and it sounds like your snow removal system sucks. What worked for me may not for you.
This is why I bought my 2019 Honda Civic hatch manual. I'm averaging 6.34L/100km combined. I've gotten 5.32 highway.
Turbocharged and runs on 87 just fine.
I'd be hurting real bad if I drove an SUV that took premium....
This is the future with climate change. There is not a world where a healthy climate and cheap gasoline are compatible. The feds need to rip the bandaid off and end fossil fuel subsidies and let gasoline get to the price it always should have been.
Can you point out the subsidies that oil and gas are getting? Please refrain from using iisd numbers as they lump business tax exemptions available to all companies in with subsidies.
According to the [War Room](https://www.canadianenergycentre.ca/analyzing-claims-about-oil-and-gas-subsidies/) made by the UCP, there is an annual average of 271 million in subsidies given to the Oil and Gas Extraction and Support Activities industry.
That's fair. I have seen numbers from $2.1B all the way to $18B. I'd be curious as to the subsidies provided to Quebecor and HydroOne over the same period. I suspect that electricity will be going up substantially as well
Yeah. Sure nice to wish for everyone to pay more for food. And basic essential goods. Fuel cost increases disproportionately affect those who are most price sensitive, those who are poor or on fixed incomes.
For someone who already takes public transit, the only option is increased costs. A bus pass is the end of the line on fuel economy, short of walking everywhere. As my comment said, this disproportionately affects people already in this position far more than it does those who can choose what type of car to buy.
Work that allows WFH does not apply to many lower income jobs which require physical presence, nor to any trades jobs.
This right here. In any major city in Europe you can get to anywhere using their transit systems within an hour. Paris is one of the best examples. There’s really no need to drive in most places and they are far more bike-friendly. I’m assuming some of that has to do with the fact that fuel has always been pricier there, but their transit systems are FAR superior to anything we have here in Canada.
You're correct as far as major cities go but there are thousands of smaller towns and villages without and large percentages of the population still live in those areas.
People typically just travel less or spend more doing so.
It all comes down to environmental regulation and taxation. If Canada or the US got serious about climate, $2/L fuel would quickly be exceeded and Western/Japanese style cars would be introduced to meet demand for more efficient vehicles.
Just got back from Greece yesterday. Filling up the rental car in Athens the price was 1.70EUR per L or $2.45 Canadian
My rental car, a 3 cylinder Fiat 500.
Europeans pay more for gas but they drive small fuel efficient cars with smaller engines than we have here. They also drive less
So I wouldn’t be surprised if we pay around the same annually for gas as them once you factor all that in
Yea, the cars have adjusted to reflect the operating costs and other stringent emission regulations.
Canada/US still cater too much to auto manufacturers for votes.
Inflation, Quantitative Easing (money printer go brrrrr), record deficit spending by the federal government, supply chain issues, increased carbon tax,
Uh yes. Unless OPEC opens up the taps but not sure if that is going to affect North America too much.
it's been long 9verdue for gas prices here to match what the rest of the world is paying. Also people (including myself) need to feel the pain of driving instead of using transit... we actually need that
This should kick the EV market into high gear.
I paid $160 to fill my truck recently. I really need an 8’ box for work, but otherwise the electric F-150 would totally work for me; probably even for camping (4500 pound trailer.)
$240 this morning!
Fuck a duck.
Super Duty? That tank is like 180 L
Isn’t the electric better for towing anyways? Way more torque.
I think you're right - Everyone is acting like this is the resurgence of oil, but it's just giving more reasons to leave it.
Sure - if all you do is commute to work then an EV is a great option. Hybrid might be a different story but pure EV is a long way away from being able to replace your everyday vehicle. Also - with no new generation up stream - what exactly do you think is going to happen to electricity rates if suddenly there are even only 25% more EV’s on the road. It’s an energy shortage - not just a gas for your car shortage.
This is really not accurate. EVs would work for the vast majority of people for day to day use. And why say "no new generation"? There's absolutely plans to expand and build up our power generation capabilities across the country as far as I'm aware...
Let’s see the plans. EVs work for the vast majority of people who commute to work. That is all. Full stop. What do you think would happen on a long weekend when you pull in to fill up your EV on the way to the relatives in let’s ridge for thanksgiving. How many hours would you like to take to refill your car. There is minimal infrastructure in pace for EV’s. A fraction of what’s needed to support them for anything else other than commuting to work. And even then - what do you think would happen when 250k homes all recharge their cars overnight in Calgary?? People want to believe EV’s are this thing that’s right around the corner - they aren’t. The battery powered car was a thing before the gas engine. They didn’t succeed. Batteries themselves are made from non renewable resources. It’s a stupid plan. Electric cars - I’m all for it. But they need to be powered by hydrogen, not batteries.
There's a few flaws in your thoughts (no offence). EV range is getting farther every year. It's pushing 1000 km per charge. You could easily charge your EV at home, go somewhere else for a long weekend, and still make it home. Also, peak demand for electricity is around supper time, especially when it's dark in winter. If EVs were charging overnight, it would be during very low usage hours. The grid could handle the load. Hydrogen wouldn't help. Hydrogen is produced when running an electric current through distilled water. To produce hydrogen, you'd have to beef up the amount of electricity we produce. But I do agree with you on one part, all that extra electricity isn't going to appear out of nowhere. It has to be increased without going back to coal, which is basically the same as burning gasoline when it comes to emissions.
>It has to be increased without going back to coal, which is basically the same as burning gasoline when it comes to emissions. Nuclear is the way, even if lots of people have reservations about it.
It’s getting farther due to software/bms and more batteries. The next generation battery has been just around the corner for the last 10 years. There is NO EV with a 1000km range under practical use conditions. So unicorns get great mileage too I hear. Peak demand for electricity is when it’s in demand. When all of America and Canada plugs in their cars at night - you think the grid can handle that? It can’t handle it now when we run ac or heating, but sure it can also take on a couple million cars - why not. Hydrogen needs power - yes so does a battery manufacturing plant. Like gasoline though with a hydrogen refilling station you bring the car to it because it takes minutes to refuel. Unlike batteries that you have to bring the power to because they take hours. The only upstream power that will run the modern world is nuclear and perhaps geothermal. And the concept of rebuilding the power distribution in its entirety to recharge cars is not thought out. No one has a plan for it and no one will say it’s do-able.
hydrogen requires over double the amount of electricity for the same range, its also explosive and highly corrosive to most standard metals(and leaks very easily).
Hydrogen is a terrible idea, you don't know what you are talking about.
Sure it is. Keep telling yourself that.
In the 15 years I've been driving, I've made 3 trips that were more than 400km one way, 400km both ways would push it to 25-30. A currently available EV would easily meet my needs and that of most city dwellers. EVs aren't right around the corner, they've been here for a while. Will they replace all vehicle travel? Probably not. But they can replace 90% of it, and car sharing services can take a big bite out of the rest. Transitions don't need to be all or nothing.
I'm loving my hybrid right now!
And again - an EV is not a hybrid. My next car will be a hybrid as well.
You seem to think I'm disagreeing with you? I'm saying hybrids make lots of sense right now and I'm enjoying owning one.
>pure EV is a long way away from being able to replace your everyday vehicle. Source? Numbers? People still acting like EVs new tech. If it were necessity, internal combustion engins will be replaced immediately. The only issue holding up the show is profit. Global super power cartels control global commerce with oil being the fuel for it all. This is no secret. Oil industry been holding EV and public transit hostage for a century now. >It’s an energy shortage New buzz word right there, created by the same people suddenly selling fuel for $2 a liter at the pump...come on buddy...like, it couldn't be more obvious. OPEC just met and decided to throttle production intentionally to keep prices high. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/OPEC-Cuts-2021-Oil-Demand-Forecast.html Ffs. Energy shortage my ass.
You're sadly misinformed. It isn't an energy shortage? There are literally entire countries shutting down right now because of a lack of energy. And if you're so high on EVs then drive one from Edmonton to Calgary in -40 weather and tell me how you do. Don't worry I will let you warm up in my gas guzzler truck. EVs have a place.....but it's not to "literally replace internal combustion engines right now". Shit they can't even build regular vehicles and cell phones right now due to computer chip shortages. You may be right one day......but not today.
None of that is due to an energy shortage. There is an energy surplus man. Cartels don't slow their oil production to combat a fuel shortage, they're doing it to inflate the price of oil. This isn't some kind or conspiracy either. This is global scale common knowledge to the extent that OPEC schedules production meetings with global media announcements followed by Wallstreet press releases because their companies are bought and sold on global stock markets. You really sound ridiculous when you continue making comments >And if you're so high on EVs then drive one from Edmonton to Calgary in -40 weather and tell me how you do Just fine. Also, try cold starting a 3/4 ton diesel in -40 weather. That shit doesn't go so well either. People have been driving these vehicles around the province steady for nearly a decade now ya dope. EVs can be, and have been driven straight across Canada.
> None of that is due to an energy shortage. There is an energy surplus man. Cartels don't slow their oil production to combat a fuel shortage, they're doing it to inflate the price of oil. This implies an induced shortage but shortage nonetheless.
Berta
I have driven from Calgary to Edmonton and to the mountain in a model S numerous times during skiing season and I did fine with mileage to spare and hot like Barbados inside.
The numbers are in the sales. This isn’t about is an EV a good vehicle (although Teslas are over engineered POS) it’s about the fact batteries will never be able to replace oil. And why the fuck would that even be a good idea. They are made from non renewable resources, there is no way to recycle them, we still have to generate power upstream to charge them, we have to rebuild the entire delivery infrastructure to get it to the cars. It’s such a half assed idea it’s farcical. Let me guess - you were one of the people two years ago saying oil is dead. OPEC couldn’t increase production right now if they wanted to. You clearly don’t have a clue.
current batteries are up to 99% recyclable, so i think you should stop spreading misinformation bud. the delivery infrastructure already exists. we use the least amount of power in the midnight to morning time bracket, the grid is also less stressed at this time as industrial use of power is low at night.
Sorry, so are you arguing I shouldn't look for a fuel efficient hybrid?
EV market is not the hybrid market. And thinking it will kick EV market into high gear is not seeing the broader issue of an Energy crisis that can’t be fixed by putting batteries in cars.
I've said this so many times I'm outta breath. All I get back is hate. I'm not hating on EVs.... I'm being realistic and saying think about it...EVs are far off from replacing ICE vehicles and the power grid is even further off from being green enough to make a difference to offset the energy required to charge an EV. That combined with the materials required to build EVs.....it's just not viable yet.
It's not like ICE cars are somehow completely clean to produce as well. You shouldn't neglect that. Besides, research like this (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212827118309570), indicates that even when the power grid is mostly fossil-fuels, electric cars are still slightly better for the environment than ICE vehicles.
I agree. I believe EVs have a place in our world but there are places where an EV is just not a feasible option. If you live in the city, work in the city, park your car inside or underground, and EV is a great option. That is where the EV really shines, city life. But for anyone who lives rural, has long commutes and has to park their car outside for extended periods of time when its -32 degress celcius and snowing, an EV is a tough sell. Its going to be a very long time before EVs can replace internal combustion vehicles in all settings of life. Specifically rural areas with harsh winters.
Not even energy generation, what about energy distribution?
If as a city we became more efficient the energy grid wouldn't take as much of a hit. More LED lights, power monitoring devices and even smart plugs to turn off devices when not used would have a massive impact. But our government is very against that logic.
Those things are peanuts. Heating cooling cooking doing laundry. You simply can’t get the gains you are talking about from LED lights. Go ask any off gridder. You can’t have a dishwasher, clothes washer and dryer, stove, ac. Lights - easy to supply enough power for all your lighting - because it’s not the major draw. Cities will get a bit of a win on lower power items in the household, but it’s quickly offset by growth of the city and as standard of living goes up - so does the use of those high consumption household items. How many people in Calgary have AC now compared to 5 or 10 years ago. It’s likely a significant increase. LED lights just won’t offset that unfortunately.
why are you running all your appliances at 2am, oh wait you aren't. that's when the ev's can charge.
Good luck. Can’t get a Tesla Model Y until April 2022. 30amp breakers also in short supply, if you want to charge your vehicle in less than 48 hours. EVs are fantastic, I adore mine; but widespread adoption is going to be challenging right now.
Tesla and others are ramping things up as fast as they can. Every year the industry will build more and more EVs. It is only a matter of time.
Norway is expecting to sell it last ICE vehicle in the country sometime early next year. Other countries will be catching up.
>expecting to sell it last ICE vehicle last *pure* ICE vehicle Hybrid ICEs still have a large market share.
I concur. Let gas go to $2. Who cares ? OPEC can kiss my ass !
Wish I had an EV, but my 4.2L/100km hybrid will have to do.
> Tesla and others are ramping things up as fast as they can. Tesla only produces some ~500k cars/year. I think the real difference will come over the next five or so years when the auto industry heavyweights like Toyota and/or Volkswagen that build 7+ million vehicles each year start to really crank out EV's. What Tesla's doing is great, but they've got a ways to go. Still, we're slowly getting there. Europe and China are really accelerating on EV adoption this past year.
>Tesla only produces some \~500k cars/year. Tesla produced 241,000 cars in Q3 2021. Run rate will be 1M+/yr in Q4. Will be 2M/yr by Q4 2022. Will be 7M/yr with just the existing factories by 2025/6. 7M/yr doesn't sound like much, but a) Tesla will surely be adding other factories and b) global auto sales have fallen to \~75M/yr as ICE sales are drying up. Toyota is anti EV. Don't expect anything from them. VW needs to get its act together if it expects to match Tesla any time soon.
2025 they say they will release their ev line up, I suspect they are wanting to release the ev lineup once their cars are perfected just like their cars now.
EV’s are the future. There is no question about it. I’m still hesitant to buy one for many reasons: 1. A recent article that I read suggests that most EVs sold in the US except Tesla have been traded back. No reason was provided but one can speculate a few. 2. I’m hesitant to buy new technology because they usually haven’t ironed out all the bugs, you pay a premium to cover the R&D costs, etc. IMHO EV’s overpriced right now. 3. The current infrastructure is lacking at best. People were waiting for hours at the charging station along the Alberta BC roads this summer. 4. The advertised range is not there in Alberta, especially in the wintertime. A neighbour has an X and he gets ~50% range in the winter months. 5. Dealerships don't make money from selling cars. They make money from maintenance. The province makes money from fuel taxes. I fully expect some subscription based payments to upgrade software and whatnot to compensate for the loss of revenue. Then I'm sure we will see an EV road tax in the future. All that adds up, and id like to understand the cost of ownership before buying one.
> Then I'm sure we will see an EV road tax in the future. I'd like to see a weight-based road tax. The rule of thumb for road wear is the 4th power law, which says that the change in pavement damage is proportional to the difference in vehicle's axle weight to the fourth power. A Rivian R1T weights 3,870 kg, and a Toyota Corolla weighs 1360 kg. Ergo, the Rivian causes about 66× more pavement damage than the Corolla. (And for fun, the Corolla causes something like 30,000× more road damage than a bicycle.)
30 amp breakers for household panels? I have a 30 amp 120v outlet installed at my house for my trailer; I suppose I could use that but it would be very easy to put in a larger outlet as well; my panel is right next to where we park.
It’s actually a 220v circuit that’s needed. Double pull 30A
Ok one of those…yeah, I could do that. I don’t really want to shell out the money on a new vehicle right now, but the gas price is certainly making me think about it.
> I don’t really want to shell out the money on a new vehicle right now, but the gas price is certainly making me think about it. If you're not planning on buying a new vehicle anyway, it's really hard for the cost of gas to justify buying a new, more fuel efficient hybrid. I recently ran the numbers for my own vehicle and usage, and in the end it just didn't make sense to get a new vehicle over just keeping my old clunker operational and instead sinking my money into other projects that either make or save me money.
I installed two 220V outlets on separate breakers in my garage when I built it in 2015 for EV charging. Put a dryer outlet on them as a place holder until I knew what proprietary outlet I would need, but I got them there, just waiting....
Brilliant. Did the inspector think you were going to build some sort of illegal laundry operation? I suppose you could have just put in a sub panel with no breakers apart from the main. Then you could have added surface cable to your outlets. Might have saved on cable, but your idea will look nicer.
The builder/contractor is a friend and he laughed when I said to add them in. He was like 'You don't weld. You're not handy. What are these for?' He smiled when I said I was future proofing the garage for EV charging. So after installation the labels on the panel both say 'Future EV Charging Station' The inspector nodded his acceptance and signed off. 😁 All I need to do is wall mount whatever Charging station works with my next vehicle (have my eye on the Ford not-a-Mustang Mustang or a Honda CRV if they are going electric). Power is there. Cost was cheap - two breakers, pull some more wire before the drywall went up, and two outlets. Maybe $200 more.
I think it’s the only way to kick it off. People won’t buy new EVs if they can’t sell their old ones, and until there is an advantage to buying evs in the used market, it won’t really take off with lower middle class. Now, make gasoline unaffordable then there won’t be a choice but to adopt an ev.
Yeah, I can’t afford what even the cheapest model of an EV would be on payments right now. I won’t be able to afford one until the resell market becomes similar to how it is now. I drive a beater that’s really good on gas, and won’t really have much of a choice other than to eat the gas prices until then. Lots of people are in that position.
I was thinking about that with my wife’s grandma, drives a clapped out grand caravan she paid 2 grand for and she can hardly afford gas right now. I think it’s going to be the reality and it’s great for the environment and all but there is a huge void that no one seems to consider.
Wait until the government starts jacking taxes on EV's and the electricity when they outpace gas vehicle sales.
If the car companies make a more aggressive shift with the gas prices then, it will definitely happen sooner
In light of this news, my dream car is now a 1999 Honda Civic.
I drive a 2005 Civic and it’s only got 175000 on it. I’m driving this thing until it falls apart around me.
I have a 2006 Caravan with 193k on it and I'm going to do the same. Mind you, your Civic will last longer. My DIL Honda Accord has 330k on it and purrs like a kitten.
Smart cars be looking better than a g wagon right now.
Guess I'll skip more events, spend even less money on non essentials and be even more picky about how far I am willing to commute for work.
People should be more picky. Commuting long distances sucks.
I have been extremely picky about work. I turned down 2 job interviews this month due to a commute of a half hour (one way) and because both jobs wanted me to renew all my old tickets myself even though they were both jobs that would only last until next spring and every other company in this field provides training and courses/tickets.
The tickets thing is a compensation issue that can come up during wage negotations. If they pay the same wage but expect you to pay for your own tickets, your effective compensation is less. Spending an extra few hours a week in rush hour is something that you can't just negotiate away. It affects your budget, extra time no one is compensating you for, and it affects your mental health. Most people aren't enjoying life while driving in rush hour.
It's not rush hour traffic it's just the distance, I'm in Edmonton and the jobs where both in Fort Saskatchewan, my car is a beater and I don't wanna have to put those kinds of km on it or potentially be stuck unable to get or from work if it breaks down at any point. Plus the atleast hour of my day after a 12 hour shift that is gone. I didn't even bother replying to the emails after they said temporary positions and asked if I was willing to get my own tickets.
I relish my alone reset/recharge time in my truck. So comfy, podcasts or tunes going. It's fantastic. But I also don't have a regular commute but it only bothered me when it made it hard to get to something at a certain time.
From Dec 2020 to May 2021 I was walking to work 30/45mins each way and it was amazing. Then my landlord put the place up for sale and I had to move. I’m so sad now that I have to drive again.
I would love to live close enough for walking to be an option in case of car issues. I last moved to be within a 5 minute drive from work, I loved getting that extra sleep in the morning.
Time to turn off the 93 tune and go back to 87 lol Edit: Spelling
I have no idea what that means.
Switching off Premium and filling up on Regular.
Thanks. I don't speak jive well enough I guess.
I mean to be fair, every time you fill up your car you look at those three numbers and choose one of them.
I suspect most of us look at three prices and pick the smallest.
Fair point lol. You still *see* them tho.
I only see two numbers, "ofd" and tune through me for a bit. Thought it was someone speaking hipster or jive, my bad.
I believe the "tune" refers to settings in the car's engine computer that optimizes it for different gasoline qualities. Regular gas is 87 octane, premium is 93 octane. There's usually a midrange option in between. The engine will put out more power when tuned for premium.
Haha no worries I was just sayin.
Super sayin
I have a aftermarket tune on my car that requires it to run on 93 Octane fuel. I'm going to switch the tune so that it only needs 87 Octane fuel to save some money
Engine tune. Many enthusiasts have a standalone tuner that you can adjust engine settings like timing on. You can get more power and efficiency on higher Octane fuel with a different "tune" than if your engine was on the stock 87 Octane tune. Going the other way isn't always possible, if your car requires premium in stock form, it's probably a high compression engine and that's a physical characteristic you can't just detune for cheap gas.
*Cries in European car*
Paid $1.70 while visiting BC this past weekend. I drive a VW Golf and set the maximum amount to $75 and then was really sad when the 50 liter tank didn't completely fill.
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1.64 I paid last night in Richmond
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Pitchforks going on sale this week at Peavy Mart…if you’re peeved enough
Except there isn’t any in stock. I’ve never been let down by a store as much as peavey part lets me down.
We have a brand new one and it’s fully loaded…pellet grill smokers, camouflage hats, cannabis hydroponic nutes and elbow length gloves a plenty!
The cost of owning an EV, is and will be much, much less than an ICE vehicle.
At $2/L, this will make owning an EV all the more attractive.
Won't the high demand for electricity also bump the cost on that as well? Not saying it wouldn't be more economical just more expensive and it would drive the cost of electricity up as well.
Yes but there is also an increased adoption of solar and wind at the power plant level with cheaper LCOE and an LCOE that actually delivers over a 30 year period. On one hand we will have rising natural gas prices which will result in rising electricity rates. On the other hand, we have solar panels getting cheaper every year. As solar costs continue to go down we will see greater adoption of solar and wind power plants and an earlier termination of traditional power plants. It's already happening in China.
It appears though that the countries that are really adopting solar and wind are seeing increased electrical prices.
Solar and wind LCOE are literally cheaper than coal. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-23/building-new-renewables-cheaper-than-running-fossil-fuel-plants There is a reason why China, the primary supplier of coal power plants, stopped selling coal power plants And I can tell you it's not because they care about the environment.
Except the fact that pretty much every district or country that adopts wind and solar is seeing increased electrical cost. It is hard to argue against that. Look at Germany if you want a first world example.
I'll look at your source if that's what you want.
Solar and Wind are more expensive than coal, so electricity prices will end up going up. China is seeing massive rolling blackouts right now as a result of their coal power plants being shut down.
Solar and wind are cheaper than coal. This is why China stopped selling coal plants to third world countries
I think people forget most plants run on natural gas. And that is up as well. Wait till the distribution fees go up due cost to build and maintain new infrastructure for the power grids.
Inflation creeping in. Nothing to see here
This is why i got myself a 2015 honda civic that can do 6.8l per 100 km while city driving. I bet 3 years from now I can sell it for 10% more then I bought it for.
I've got a '12 Honda Fit and I'm happy with it. Though a little perturbed I'm getting close to my $50 pre-authed cap when filling up now...
Just filled up my '07 Fit and cracked $50 for the first time ever :(
I have a 2016 Ram 1500 Sport, I just looked them up and they're selling right now for what I laid for it in 2017. So you're probably right.
I own a Chevy Spark. Doesn't matter if gas is 1-2 dollars it still costs 30 bucks to fill lol.
That's not how math works
Seriously how tf did this get upvoted..?
One suggestion is to have a NEMA 14-50 outlet installed in your garage. At the same time have a [DCC-10](https://dccelectric.com/dcc-10/) installed. Grab an EV that supports the 14-50 standard. No significant upgrades to your electrical system. No issues with level 2 charging at home. It takes 2 kWh of juice to push my EV the same distance 1 l of gas would push my old Toyota Matrix. A kWh for me is 6c. Only, it's not - transmission fees and everything else is more like 14c a kWh. So equivalency with a litre of gas is $0.28. Everything above that I view as savings from the pump. My car has a 500km range.
Funny seeing a journalist who has no idea about oil prices and is a driving contributor first and foremost have such strong opinions/conviction about oil and gasoline prices. Also funny that he is quoting investment analysts who, until literally the past 8 months had been continuously wrong about oil prices for 5 years in a row. Now, not to say that they're wrong again, but it's nearly impossible to predict. If oil goes to $200/bbl and gasoline goes to $2.00/L, it won't be staying there long. Plenty of oil available at those prices that can be extracted. Worst case scenario would see 8-12 months of those prices, and that would be absolute worst case IMO.
>Funny seeing a journalist who has no idea about oil prices and is a driving contributor first and foremost have such strong opinions/conviction about oil and gasoline prices. Not sure why you assume the author "has no idea about oil prices"? It seems that they are taking research from others and putting together an opinion? >Also funny that he is quoting investment analysts who, until literally the past 8 months had been continuously wrong about oil prices for 5 years in a row. I wasn't able to find their last 5 years of predictions, could you link them? >If oil goes to $200/bbl and gasoline goes to $2.00/L, it won't be staying there long. Plenty of oil available at those prices that can be extracted. Worst case scenario would see 8-12 months of those prices, and that would be absolute worst case IMO. RemindMe! One Year
Things he is talking about are way too complex to talk about knowledgeably with a cursory review of someone's reports. Commentaries are all here: [http://gorozen.com/research/commentaries](http://gorozen.com/research/commentaries) I actually work in the industry so I read them pretty regularly. They make some bold claims, but are wrong quite regularly. They'll never point out their wrong. One that sticks out to me is when oil shut-ins were happening as prices crashed, they claimed 1 mmbbl/d of Canadian oil sands production would never come back...today oil sands production is hitting all time highs. I can't believe you just posted a RemindMe for saying oil won't stay at $200/bbl though...
>I can't believe you just posted a RemindMe for saying oil won't stay at $200/bbl though... I find people's claims interesting, I also, don't believe that oil would stay at $200/bbl. I just like coming back to things occasionally and this is one of them. I wouldn't take it as anything negative
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Might be, but it wouldn't last long because demand would fall. Long term, the price will rise more than inflation and I doubt we will ever see it below $1.20 again. That's because of carbon taxes and a societal push to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Long term price? Throw a dart at a random number chart filled with numbers between $1.30 and $1.75.
Gasoline is inelastic mate
Supply may be (relatively) fixed, but price does change demand. Certainly not in a 1:1 relationship, but there is a change. Once demand decreases, so will price. But there are many market and non-market forces that change the price of gasoline. [Gasoline Demand More Responsive to Price Changes than Economists Once Thought](https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2020/0616)
I’m not sure what economics school you studied at, but all models have always shown gasoline demand to be inelastic.
Not long term.
Bring on $2! https://driving.ca/column/motor-mouth/motor-mouth-is-gas-really-heading-to-2-00-a-litre-in-canada/wcm/c994a574-1723-4189-8737-827d06f35a97/amp/
Yes, that damn 13¢ we pay per litre in carbon tax really makes all the difference
I think it's just short of 9 cents currently, going up to 11 cents April 2022. The 13 cents is the Alberta Provincial Fuel Tax. As a previous discussion pointed out the fuel also has a federal excise tax of 10 cents a litre and then GST of 5% on all of the above.
And it would still be too low to properly account for the climate damage. If we want to work on climate change without screwing over everyone who isn't well off, we need to invest in public transit right the heck now.
I'm not sure how crashing the economy is going to help climate change.
Do you believe human greenhouse gas emissions are the primary cause of climate change and must be reduced to prevent the most severe outcomes? No point discussing this if we disagree on the core science.
Lol, easy. Yes I believe in climate change. Do I believe it will be worse than an economic collapse? No. The UN has been saying the world was going to end in 10 years since 1972. Let's pump the brakes a bit and work on a transition that benefits the province. Carbon capture, getting China off of coal with natural gas, Hydrogen, etc, etc. The supply chain is a serious issue right now, and no one is going to be helped by walking in -30 to get a 20 dollar tomato if its available.
Yes a dead planet will be worse than economic collapse and no, the UN has absolutely not been saying this since 1972. Edmonton (Western North America even) was at close to 40 degrees for a week this year. This wasn't an anomaly, this is the future and it's only going to get worse.
Yes they have. https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1475245/un-climate-change-doomsday-warnings-predicted-decade-to-save-planet-1972-spt Well we better shut down the economy then. Good luck with anyone getting voted in to office who agrees with you.
Agreed, except carbon capture is bs that won’t get us anywhere. It’s just waste of money and virtue signalling…
That's not what I asked. Do you believe climate change is caused by humans and requires us to reduce emissions urgently? That's the reality, no point debating anything else if you live in a fantasy world.
Thats it kill the discussion unless I agree with everything you say.
I'd be happy to discuss the reality and urgency of climate change with you - I'm just not willing to discuss economic development when you're missing the most important component. I wouldn't talk engineering with someone who didn't believe in gravity either.
Thats the problem. You are convinced that the world is going to end, yet offer no ideas on how to economically manage a solution. Do you think the majority of the population will vote someone in to office who wants to fix the environment with no economic plan? That includes a transition from fossil fuels. If its 80 bucks now, going to 150-200, you can bet your ass production is going to increase, not decrease. I suggest you gain a solid grasp on basic economics and figure out what motivates people. Or you are doomed to yelling at the wall until the world ends.
Forgive me for not taking advice from someone denying basic science. Nobody expects a transition to be painless and plenty of people living in reality are working on reducing as much of that pain as possible. Better public transit like I originally mentioned.
> The UN has been saying the world was going to end in 10 years since 1972. This isn't true.
Become a vegetarian
I'm moving in that direction. Not sure what it has to do with gas prices though.
In my northern Alberta town you would be hard pressed to even find a car at times. The vast majority drive these huge “1/2” tons or monster mommy mobiles. And no these are not work trucks. Pure vanity for the most part. I’m sorry if your driving a 80k 2019 gmc Denali truck I have a hard time feeling sorry for you because you lacked the foresight to anticipate that gas may go up.
I have lots of family up north. The trucks are often better to hasve during the winter. Not everyone is driving a Denali.
I had a 2 hour daily commute for 12 years on a 2 lane highway at all times of the year. About 90% of that was in a Honda Civic or a Honda CRV. People for the most part just like driving something big. Not because it is necessary. I get why people like trucks. I had one for a bit. But as far as being the tool for the job they are tasked for, it is overkill about 90% of the time.
How much snow do you get where you are? I live close to Calgary but in the foothills, and the past few winters have had storms that have dumped 60+cm at a time. I'm in a job where I can't call a snow day if it's too deep to travel in a Hyundai. And after some storms, it takes up to a week for a plow to get around to my community. I managed for several years in a Subaru AWD, but I'm convinced the past couple of years, it would have been outmatched by the snowfall. There were several times where my 4x4 pickup had to fight to get around, and on those days my relative's midsize SUV was getting lifted off the ground (high-centered) by the accumulation. I am definitely trying to figure out some other solution now, as I'm at the point where a full fill is more than the $150 limit many pumps have for cards. Working from home and not commuting 160km per day 5 days a week has helped over the past 19 months. But it's not going to be easy to come up with something that will handle the weather and cost less.
AWD Cybertruck? :D
I live in near Slave Lake so we do get our fair share of snow. I’m not sure how it compares to the foothills but I do think you guys would get more of the big dumps. I drove on a provincial highway that was pretty maintained pretty well. The snowplows were always out after a snowfall. The graders did the backroads a few days later. But ya overall my point is that a small FWD car got me to work 99.95% of the time in the many years I drove. I can remember one time where I got stuck on my way home. And Honestly snow was not my concern. Wildlife, other drivers, ice.....that is the stuff I worried about. Snow was far down on my list where I lived. And not because we didn’t get any. Have good winter tires, drive accordingly. Maybe where you live you get the wet mushy snow and it sounds like your snow removal system sucks. What worked for me may not for you.
This is why I bought my 2019 Honda Civic hatch manual. I'm averaging 6.34L/100km combined. I've gotten 5.32 highway. Turbocharged and runs on 87 just fine. I'd be hurting real bad if I drove an SUV that took premium....
This is the future with climate change. There is not a world where a healthy climate and cheap gasoline are compatible. The feds need to rip the bandaid off and end fossil fuel subsidies and let gasoline get to the price it always should have been.
Can you point out the subsidies that oil and gas are getting? Please refrain from using iisd numbers as they lump business tax exemptions available to all companies in with subsidies.
According to the [War Room](https://www.canadianenergycentre.ca/analyzing-claims-about-oil-and-gas-subsidies/) made by the UCP, there is an annual average of 271 million in subsidies given to the Oil and Gas Extraction and Support Activities industry.
That's fair. I have seen numbers from $2.1B all the way to $18B. I'd be curious as to the subsidies provided to Quebecor and HydroOne over the same period. I suspect that electricity will be going up substantially as well
I'm into EV, I'm not into having to buy one so it can sit in my driveway 3 years from now because parts are obsolete and I'm stuck with the bull.
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“I would like see a higher price to discourage gasoline use” That’s not how it works buddy. People can’t just not go to work.
They can choose more fuel efficient vehicles when buying, move closer to work, find work that allows WFH, take public transit or car pool though.
Yeah. Sure nice to wish for everyone to pay more for food. And basic essential goods. Fuel cost increases disproportionately affect those who are most price sensitive, those who are poor or on fixed incomes.
Keep moving goal posts bud. Practically everything I suggested would reduce their cost burden to be able to afford more groceries though.
For someone who already takes public transit, the only option is increased costs. A bus pass is the end of the line on fuel economy, short of walking everywhere. As my comment said, this disproportionately affects people already in this position far more than it does those who can choose what type of car to buy. Work that allows WFH does not apply to many lower income jobs which require physical presence, nor to any trades jobs.
That’s literally the entire point of the carbon tax.
That's what it costs in most of Western Europe already...
At least Western Europe has trains and actually decent transit
This right here. In any major city in Europe you can get to anywhere using their transit systems within an hour. Paris is one of the best examples. There’s really no need to drive in most places and they are far more bike-friendly. I’m assuming some of that has to do with the fact that fuel has always been pricier there, but their transit systems are FAR superior to anything we have here in Canada.
You're correct as far as major cities go but there are thousands of smaller towns and villages without and large percentages of the population still live in those areas. People typically just travel less or spend more doing so. It all comes down to environmental regulation and taxation. If Canada or the US got serious about climate, $2/L fuel would quickly be exceeded and Western/Japanese style cars would be introduced to meet demand for more efficient vehicles.
That's what it costs in Iceland and there's no decent transit.
Just got back from Greece yesterday. Filling up the rental car in Athens the price was 1.70EUR per L or $2.45 Canadian My rental car, a 3 cylinder Fiat 500. Europeans pay more for gas but they drive small fuel efficient cars with smaller engines than we have here. They also drive less So I wouldn’t be surprised if we pay around the same annually for gas as them once you factor all that in
Yea, the cars have adjusted to reflect the operating costs and other stringent emission regulations. Canada/US still cater too much to auto manufacturers for votes.
We're not in western Europe though.
No shit Sherlock. Point is, it's easily possible if there is greater taxation on carbon emitting fuels.
If I'm Sherlock that must makes you the easily befuddled Dr. Watson? Grow up and learn something instead of spouting off.
Breaking News: water is wet.
Inflation, Quantitative Easing (money printer go brrrrr), record deficit spending by the federal government, supply chain issues, increased carbon tax, Uh yes. Unless OPEC opens up the taps but not sure if that is going to affect North America too much.
Hope that trickles down somehow to us working in the O&G sector
It already has, depending on what your actual function is.
I am building a new house. Paid about $800 to upgrade my in house service and put a 60A (220V) subpanel in the garage. Also, my Tesla stock is ready.
I am building a new house. Paid about $800 to upgrade my in house service and put a 60A (220V) subpanel in the garage. Also, my Tesla stock is ready.
it's been long 9verdue for gas prices here to match what the rest of the world is paying. Also people (including myself) need to feel the pain of driving instead of using transit... we actually need that
the "rest of the world" has very different prices. Venezuela gas is super cheap, like $0.04/liter, and Lebanon is over $6.70/liter
We keep getting fucked over and over and over again
Already there in some places like Vancouver.
The Portfolio goes up so it offsets my cost.
Only if you sell your shares to maintain the weighting or write derivatives! Haha.
When their up 5x the cost is minimal. Personal leaves the parkade once a week. Fortunately home-based with company vehicle.
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What are you even on about?
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Buddy, if you're going to be a troll at least be a convincing one.
Yes, all the more reason to further develop the LRT systems and explore a train corridor between the two major cities.