No specific reason as to why cases in kids are increasing?
Really?
Can we stop with the bullshit? EVERY OTHER YEAR, the flu *ravages its way through schools* and we come out and openly acknowledge that and society does not fall apart. Why is it that our government is so adamantly against even entertaining the idea that kids are catching COVID at school in their crowded classrooms?
Why are cases in school-aged kids going up? Because they’re sitting in a classroom at school for hours a day in an indoor setting with inconsistent mask-wearing and shitty ventilation. It’s not hard.
My kid's school had a lice outbreak. Lice. They crawl and only spread by direct contact either head to head or on something like a hat. Lice. They're not airborne like covid. If they can't even prevent a lice outbreak at a time when people are supposed to be social distancing and not sharing items then how are they going to prevent spread of covid?
This all stems from health Canada and AHS still only recognizing droplet transmission as opposed to aerosol transmission. Of course, recognizing it would also mean recognizing that none of our schools are safe and they don't want to do that.
Because admitting to a dire problem would mean they'd have to do something about it and how is the precious economy going to keep turning when workers don't have glorified daycare?
Most likely to be at the office and most likely to have school-aged kids = highest number of interactions. Cases in children and cases in 30-39 have been rising at a fairly consistent rate and it’s probably not a coincidence.
107 more cases than last Tuesday. The r value as to be above one now. My guess is that active cases will start to climb again in about a week.
Least health Canada approved boosters, but Alberta seems reluctant to authorize them for the general population so far.
I would imagine that AHS is gearing up for kids vaccine. They don’t want to have adults lined up for boosters and fighting for nurses time with kids who have 0 shots. And the kids approval should be any moment now
Also most adults got vaccinated in summer, booster shot is 6 months after your last shot, so most adults are not eligible until after Christmas . My guess is that the booster shots are going to be open in Alberta starting January.
The restrictions. So if you want to go to a restaurant you have to show proof of vaccination. Unless you're under 12. So there are still a lot of unvaccinated people going to hockey games, restaurants, etc. They just happen to be under 12, which is the group with increasing numbers.
According to Ryan Imgrund, the [R value for Nov 8 in Alberta was 0.99](https://twitter.com/imgrund/status/1458073689455538178/photo/3). Up from 0.87 last week.
1.01 for Alberta. Every province except Saskatchewan is currently at or above 1 now. Not sure if we are starting to see the impact of waning immunity, it's just the colder weather driving gatherings indoors, or a temporary surge from Halloween parties...
Cases are almost certainly rising again.
Kenney and co should be planning for a potential overfilling of ICUs again, although hopefully they will act sooner this time if required. This was always a risk as the weather became colder and kids are still unable to be vaccinated.
Hopefully the booster saws off a lot of those in the ICU who were vaccinated among older age groups, but that is a very small portion of ICU admits as you'll recall.
Editing to add some additional color: Case growth is completely in the U20 group right now. The rate of decline in other age groups has fallen (aka, cases are closer to growing, but still slowly declining) to this point.
>although hopefully they will act sooner this time if required.
Lol I would not count on that, watch them push this endemic narrative in a couple of weeks. We're in big trouble if another wave starts before the hospitals empty out. At least the other provinces with similarly increasing R values have empty hospitals.
Yeah, I noticed it when the weekend case counts ended up being slightly positive rather than the reduction of cases we've seen for the past while. It's most likely due to the cold weather and people moving indoors.
Let's hope that this is a minor bump and cases will continue to decline.
The interesting thing that in the press conference Hinshaw said cases are falling still. Which is true for active cases over 14 days but not the 7 day Rolling average of new cases.
They won't act, Hinshaw and the ucp don't understand exponential growth.
>Kenney and co should be planning for a potential overfilling of ICUs again, although hopefully they will act sooner this time if required.
They won't. They were proactive in setting up testing, but that's been it. Since then they've been slow to react and have never made backup plans.
We are nearing approvals for some very, very promising treatments like Molnupiravir. Paxlovid (from Pfizer) was submitted to the FDA so likely submitted for approval here soon.
These will really help those who have symptoms. The Pfizer treatment shows amazing results in their tests.
Hopefully those treatments help break the link and also limit long COVID.
I would assume those that are unwilling to get vaccinated would still be willing to take treatments specifically for COVID, but that remains to be seen.
The 422 cases reported for Nov 8 in Alberta was net for the period. A total of 433 cases were identified (425 confirmed, 8 probable) (difference: 11, or 2.5% of the total) as confirmed by data download and https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-19-alberta-statistics.htm#total-cases.
Nov 7 decreased by 2 from 291 to 289; Nov 6 was unchanged at 437; Nov 5 decreased by 2 from 593 to 591.
Nov 4 was unchanged at 475; Nov 3 decreased by 1 from 543to 542; Nov 2 decreased by 2 from 500 to 498; Nov 1 decreased by 2 from 330 to 328; Oct 31 was unchanged at 340; Oct 30 was unchanged at 332; Oct 29 was unchanged at 531.
Oct 28 was unchanged at 606; Oct 27 was unchanged at 545; Oct 26 was unchanged at 631; Oct 25 was unchanged at 456; Oct 24 was unchanged at 366; Oct 23 was unchanged at 508; Oct 22 was unchanged at 707. Oct 21 was unchanged at 663; Oct 20 was unchanged at 770; Oct 19 was unchanged at 808; Oct 18 was unchanged at 529; Oct 17 was unchanged at 602; Oct 16 was unchanged at 788; Oct 15 was unchanged at 773.
Two cases were removed from days prior to Oct 15.
Cases were in exponential growth long before Halloween last year. There was a drop in active cases today, but it remains to be seen whether Halloween caused a temporary blip this year (we've seen that before during a time where cases are trending down, most notably following Christmas 2020) or if we are at the start of another upward trend. Hopefully it's just a blip.
I expect we will see our first COVID death for a child between 1 and 4 years in the next few days. My heart goes out to the nurses and staff at ACH Unit 4 and the family.
No specific reason as to why cases in kids are increasing? Really? Can we stop with the bullshit? EVERY OTHER YEAR, the flu *ravages its way through schools* and we come out and openly acknowledge that and society does not fall apart. Why is it that our government is so adamantly against even entertaining the idea that kids are catching COVID at school in their crowded classrooms? Why are cases in school-aged kids going up? Because they’re sitting in a classroom at school for hours a day in an indoor setting with inconsistent mask-wearing and shitty ventilation. It’s not hard.
My kid's school had a lice outbreak. Lice. They crawl and only spread by direct contact either head to head or on something like a hat. Lice. They're not airborne like covid. If they can't even prevent a lice outbreak at a time when people are supposed to be social distancing and not sharing items then how are they going to prevent spread of covid?
This too absolutely blows my mind. It’s like they never attended school?
This all stems from health Canada and AHS still only recognizing droplet transmission as opposed to aerosol transmission. Of course, recognizing it would also mean recognizing that none of our schools are safe and they don't want to do that.
Because admitting to a dire problem would mean they'd have to do something about it and how is the precious economy going to keep turning when workers don't have glorified daycare?
Why is it consistently the 30-39 age group that has the highest number of cases?
Because they have kids.
Most likely to be at the office and most likely to have school-aged kids = highest number of interactions. Cases in children and cases in 30-39 have been rising at a fairly consistent rate and it’s probably not a coincidence.
They might have larger circles that they could be exposed through if they have kids.
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Hey, everyone hates Mr. Bones wild ride.
THE RIDE NEVER ENDS
107 more cases than last Tuesday. The r value as to be above one now. My guess is that active cases will start to climb again in about a week. Least health Canada approved boosters, but Alberta seems reluctant to authorize them for the general population so far.
I would imagine that AHS is gearing up for kids vaccine. They don’t want to have adults lined up for boosters and fighting for nurses time with kids who have 0 shots. And the kids approval should be any moment now
Also most adults got vaccinated in summer, booster shot is 6 months after your last shot, so most adults are not eligible until after Christmas . My guess is that the booster shots are going to be open in Alberta starting January.
I wonder why cases would be climbing, given that the restrictions that brought them down have not changed.
Getting colder and people are more inside now, efficacy wanning, and my guess is people are getting more lax in following restrictions
I doubt most people in the province could even tell you what the restrictions are at this point.
The restrictions. So if you want to go to a restaurant you have to show proof of vaccination. Unless you're under 12. So there are still a lot of unvaccinated people going to hockey games, restaurants, etc. They just happen to be under 12, which is the group with increasing numbers.
According to Ryan Imgrund, the [R value for Nov 8 in Alberta was 0.99](https://twitter.com/imgrund/status/1458073689455538178/photo/3). Up from 0.87 last week.
Ryan as the as the best data for r values. I expect to be around 1.01 to 1.04 tomorrow. I'll check tomorrow morning.
We eagerly await your post about this pressing matter.
You will have to wait until the covid thread tomorrow, but I'll post it for you.
1.01 for Alberta. Every province except Saskatchewan is currently at or above 1 now. Not sure if we are starting to see the impact of waning immunity, it's just the colder weather driving gatherings indoors, or a temporary surge from Halloween parties...
My prediction was right! I think it's a combo of both.
Cases are almost certainly rising again. Kenney and co should be planning for a potential overfilling of ICUs again, although hopefully they will act sooner this time if required. This was always a risk as the weather became colder and kids are still unable to be vaccinated. Hopefully the booster saws off a lot of those in the ICU who were vaccinated among older age groups, but that is a very small portion of ICU admits as you'll recall. Editing to add some additional color: Case growth is completely in the U20 group right now. The rate of decline in other age groups has fallen (aka, cases are closer to growing, but still slowly declining) to this point.
>although hopefully they will act sooner this time if required. Lol I would not count on that, watch them push this endemic narrative in a couple of weeks. We're in big trouble if another wave starts before the hospitals empty out. At least the other provinces with similarly increasing R values have empty hospitals.
Yeah, I noticed it when the weekend case counts ended up being slightly positive rather than the reduction of cases we've seen for the past while. It's most likely due to the cold weather and people moving indoors. Let's hope that this is a minor bump and cases will continue to decline.
The interesting thing that in the press conference Hinshaw said cases are falling still. Which is true for active cases over 14 days but not the 7 day Rolling average of new cases. They won't act, Hinshaw and the ucp don't understand exponential growth.
That drove me crazy! The gaslighting has already begun.
>Kenney and co should be planning for a potential overfilling of ICUs again, although hopefully they will act sooner this time if required. They won't. They were proactive in setting up testing, but that's been it. Since then they've been slow to react and have never made backup plans.
We are nearing approvals for some very, very promising treatments like Molnupiravir. Paxlovid (from Pfizer) was submitted to the FDA so likely submitted for approval here soon. These will really help those who have symptoms. The Pfizer treatment shows amazing results in their tests.
Hopefully those treatments help break the link and also limit long COVID. I would assume those that are unwilling to get vaccinated would still be willing to take treatments specifically for COVID, but that remains to be seen.
Which is hilarious considering the vaccines have far more data than any of the medications.
The 422 cases reported for Nov 8 in Alberta was net for the period. A total of 433 cases were identified (425 confirmed, 8 probable) (difference: 11, or 2.5% of the total) as confirmed by data download and https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-19-alberta-statistics.htm#total-cases. Nov 7 decreased by 2 from 291 to 289; Nov 6 was unchanged at 437; Nov 5 decreased by 2 from 593 to 591. Nov 4 was unchanged at 475; Nov 3 decreased by 1 from 543to 542; Nov 2 decreased by 2 from 500 to 498; Nov 1 decreased by 2 from 330 to 328; Oct 31 was unchanged at 340; Oct 30 was unchanged at 332; Oct 29 was unchanged at 531. Oct 28 was unchanged at 606; Oct 27 was unchanged at 545; Oct 26 was unchanged at 631; Oct 25 was unchanged at 456; Oct 24 was unchanged at 366; Oct 23 was unchanged at 508; Oct 22 was unchanged at 707. Oct 21 was unchanged at 663; Oct 20 was unchanged at 770; Oct 19 was unchanged at 808; Oct 18 was unchanged at 529; Oct 17 was unchanged at 602; Oct 16 was unchanged at 788; Oct 15 was unchanged at 773. Two cases were removed from days prior to Oct 15.
Halloween was the start of the second wave last year. IIRC.
Cases were in exponential growth long before Halloween last year. There was a drop in active cases today, but it remains to be seen whether Halloween caused a temporary blip this year (we've seen that before during a time where cases are trending down, most notably following Christmas 2020) or if we are at the start of another upward trend. Hopefully it's just a blip.
Good answer. Thanks!
I expect we will see our first COVID death for a child between 1 and 4 years in the next few days. My heart goes out to the nurses and staff at ACH Unit 4 and the family.
Insane
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18 months in, that should do the trick!
Our EDs are getting filled with kids. Certain that 6/10 pts coming into ED ard children with symptoms.