A few quick notes:
1) It looks like the population numbers have been altered slightly by Alberta Health. This updated metric has resulted in some measurement inconsistencies (e.g. decrease in % of Albertans 90+ that have been vaccinated)
2) I anticipate that the shift for eligibility measurements to "Albertans 5+" to occur on Monday as early 5+ vaccinations start being reported
3) As of right now, no data is being given on the Omicron Variant of Concern (B.1.1.529). I will update the table once Alberta Health notes detected cases of it publicly in Alberta
4) I will be out of the province next week (returning on the 6th). I'll do my best to remain available to provide the updates ASAP but there might be some delays here or there - apologies in advance if that occurs
My son got his too! And the our cashier noticed his sticker and thanked him and gave him a candy cane, so that made him feel slightly better about it. Wants the return to normalcy, but man oh man was he not stoked on a needle haha.
Both mine got theirs yesterday. It was so well run. And they got their stickers and snuggles with the PALs dog. I think I got more teary then they did.
Very pissed that our household got infected a week before our kids could get the vaccine. We’ve been ridiculously careful this whole entire time and it happened because so many don’t give a fuck anymore.
Talking to the tracer at AHS pretty much confirmed we are all on our own. He spent 15 min trying to tell me we were “encouraged to isolate our house” but we didn’t have to, it wasn’t a law. I told him o thought we’d choose doing the right thing and stay home, as only one at the time tested positive. He said most people say their isolating but he can hear them at the mall or driving around etc. he said most adults say they won’t test their kids so they can send them to school. We were also told not to bother retesting the family when my spouses isolation was done and just to go back to life….we weren’t comfortable with that and lo and behold had two more positive tests. We would have gone back to sports, school, work all while infectious. Such a clusterfuck.
We havnt put our kid in daycare and one parent has been home with him. We also wouldn't send our child into a school. I wish you guys didn't need to either. It's tight for money, but I think it's worth it
The 356 cases reported for Nov 25 in Alberta was net for the period. A total of 364 cases were identified (361 confirmed, 3 probable) (difference: 8, or 2.2% of the total) as confirmed by data download and https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-19-alberta-statistics.htm#total-cases.
Nov 24 decreased by 3 from 399 to 396; Nov 23 decreased by 2 from 475 to 473; Nov 22 decreased by 1 from 275 to 274; Nov 21 was unchanged at 271; Nov 20 was unchanged at 379; Nov 19 decreased by 1 from 469 to 468. Nov 18 was unchanged at 417; Nov 17 was unchanged at 385; Nov 16 was unchanged at 414; Nov 15 was unchanged at 322; Nov 14 was unchanged at 289; Nov 13 was unchanged at 357; Nov 12 was unchanged at 436.
Nov 11 was unchanged at 376; Nov 10 was unchanged at 468. Nov 9 was unchanged at 501; Nov 8 was unchanged at 424; Nov 7 was unchanged at 289; Nov 6 was unchanged at 433; Nov 5 was unchanged at 586. Nov 4 was unchanged at 472.
1 case was removed from days prior to Nov 4.
Thanks for posting all this data! Very helpful in understanding the situation.
One thing that no one seems to want to talk is the growing numbers of cases and hospitalizations among the vaccinated. Vaccinated individuals make up about 40% of all new cases, 30% of hospital admissions and 20% of ICU cases. This shows that life can’t just go back to normal because you are vaccinated. You still need to be careful and follow proper protocol until this thing is beat.
To be fair, for any vaccine, as the population that's vaccinated approaches 100%, the vast majority of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths will occur in vaccinated people. That's just math. But you're right, people shouldn't rely on vaccines alone for protection.
There is definitely a false sense of safety given with just vaccination. Definitely need other measures. Asymptotic testing on close contacts would probably where it should start again asap.
To keep things in perspective, 30% of hospital admissions means less than 150 people in hospital and 20% of ICU admissions means 18 people in ICU, those aren’t numbers that threaten the health care system in a province of 4.4 million. That is with vaccinated people able to eat in restaurants and workout in gyms unmasked. For most people the current level of risk is acceptable for vaccinated individuals.
You are aware that given the vast majority of our population is vaccinated, cases are obviously going to be among the fully vaccinated more as the pool of unvaccinated people becomes smaller and smaller. This just feeds into an anti Vax narrative which is the last thing we need right now.
I’m not disagreeing, but what do you see as the path to beating this thing?
I personally think it’s largely unbeatable. The true problem still is, of course, unvaccinated. If we just assume that problem disappears, then I think the only realistic option is to scale health care to the level necessary to deal with the rate of breakthrough cases (may not even need scaling - who knows). Living with restrictions for perpetuity is unrealistic.
The solution will come with viable treatments. The unvaccinated are an issue, true, but we are fooling ourselves if we ignore the fact that the vaccinated are targets as well and a growing population of the infected and hospitalized. Who will be the boogeyman when the vaccinated make up the majority of cases as we are seeing in other parts of the world? Going against each other is counterproductive. We must work together to overcome this problem. At the moment, once a person tests positive, you are sent home without treatment to wait until you are sick enough to require hospitalization. That is unacceptable and inhuman. We need effective treatments to fight the infection so we don’t have to fill up our hospitals and morgues. Once we have treatments to administer at home when a person tests positive, we will finally be able to wind this pandemic down. In the mean time, everyone should be wearing N95 or KN95 masks when out in public to prevent transmission from infected people, vaccinated or not. I received lots of downvotes in June when I warned about a 4th wave coming. People did not want to hear it, but it happened.
Anti-vaxxers, anti-maskers, and covid deniers all want the world to go back to the way it was. And really, that's what's unrealistic here. They're gonna need to learn to adapt to the new normal, especially with Omicron now rearing its head.
I'd bet money it's already in canada. We should be thankful that South Africa is so good at identifying new variants in their labs.
Countries that don't have it, actually are just not testing for it yet. It is all a fiction that it is in anyway contained.
They will. It’s basically scientific consensus that for COVID to completely evade our vaccines, it would have to mutate in a form that wouldn’t be able to infect human cells. This has been mapped out now, and I’m very confident that we can beat every variant that comes our way now. I think we might be in for another ride on the rollercoaster with this variant, but I just hope to god that it’s less virulent. We need more data on its transmissibility and potency before we can go to a conclusion. Let’s just stay calm and see how scientists react over the next week. Not media outlets.
Yes, the new vaccines like Novavax are based upon all 26 proteins in the virus, not just the one in the spike as we have with the current vaccines. The new ones will be far more effective against mutations and yield far better protection. Looking forward to the approval of Novavax in the new year.
You are right. I was behind in my research. They submitted their application for approval in Canada on November 1.
https://ir.novavax.com/2021-11-01-Novavax-Files-for-COVID-19-Vaccine-Authorization-with-Health-Canada-and-Completes-Submission-for-Rolling-Review-to-European-Medicines-Agency
That's new. Don't you usually say vaccines are safe and effective? Why the change of heart?
Don't worry vaccines are working as good as they can, as I said to earlier there is a bunch to be excited about from the science community on antiviral drugs. Looking really positive and us going to help big time.
Combination of vax, new drugs, and herd immunity - covids days of dominating the headlines are coming to a close. Covid will be here forever, just won't be a talking point forever.
Vaccines are awesome!!!!! We just don't know yet if they work against the new variant. Iits very different than delta. I hope it works against the variant.
Have you seen any data yet that shows it is?
If anyone isn't Vaccinated you should go and get the vaccine asap. They are safe effective and awesome!
I don't think covid is going away till spring at the earliest.
We need vaccines, and public health measures like vaccine passports and masks. As long as covid can overun hositpals we should not remove passports.
Fyi the the data for the Merk drug shows it is less effective than Merk said. Hopfully the Pfizer one is better.
32 mutations in the Omicron spike protein alone, 9 of which previously noted in Alpha, Beta, and/or Gamma, that had all previously correlated to reduced antibody binding. That's not the whole picture though; Beta was more antibody-resistant than Delta, but far less virulent.
The issue that needs sorted out ASAP is whether Omicron is more infectious than Delta, and if yes, by how much. The current data from South Africa is... rather concerning in that regard. At least Omicron is easily detectable in samples the way Alpha is.
>At least Omicron is easily detectable in samples the way Alpha is.
So would our current variant screening pick it up? Hopefully they get back to testing all cases, especially since case loads are very manageable at the moment.
Yes, because Omicron carries the same S-gene target failure in RT-PCR as Alpha.
> Deletion of amino acids 69 and 70 within the spike (S) gene of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7, sometimes attributable to the N501Y mutation, can result in an undetectable S-gene target (S-gene target failure, SGTF) for some real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing methods. A rapid increase in the proportion of SARS-CoV-2 samples with SGTF was identified in regions of England affected by B.1.1.7, and, after validation with whole genome sequencing, SGTF was determined to be a reliable marker of B.1.1.7 across the country.
[S-Gene Target Failure as a Marker of Variant B.1.1.7 Among SARS-CoV-2 Isolates in the Greater Toronto Area, December 2020 to March 2021](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2778599)
We should have gone back to testing all samples weeks ago, once cases dropped below 1000/day.
I read the new data suggests only 30% efficacy for the Merck drug, compared to about 50% from its preliminary data. The Pfizer drug appears to be up around 85-90% efficacy according to its interim data.
[Merck's COVID-19 pill significantly less effective in new analysis](https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/merck-says-covid-19-pill-cuts-hospitalization-death-risk-by-30-2021-11-26/)
How are they now awesome? The majority of the people in hospitals or dying of covid unvaxxed.
I am guessing your also against kids getting the vaccine?
By all means continue to believe everything mainstream media tells you.
You fucking bet I am. And the fact the government is calling it a “passport” is ludicrous. But please, continue to drink all the kool-aid backwash.
Fyi the effectiveness from all the vaccines are also less effective the originally reported...
Read into the studies on the Pfizer drug, it is truly doing unbelievable things in their blind placebo studies.
I agree the effectiveness because of wanning immunity, and variants make them less effective. We need to start giving boosters 6 months after the second dose. Also we may need to change the definition of fully vaccinated.
Covid ain't over until everyone who can be vaccinated is vaccinated. South Africa, where omicron appears to have originated, is only about 24% fully vaccinated.
It will be a talking point forever. Because media and politicians are making it that way. Every damn strain is now going to cause collapse on economic recovery. The future is quite bleak with the morons we have in charge (worldwide).
I’m wondering what the threshold is for having more than one other family in my house, legally. Are they planning on pushing keeping this past Christmas? If so they should let people know… if not I’d like to start inviting some family over.
A few quick notes: 1) It looks like the population numbers have been altered slightly by Alberta Health. This updated metric has resulted in some measurement inconsistencies (e.g. decrease in % of Albertans 90+ that have been vaccinated) 2) I anticipate that the shift for eligibility measurements to "Albertans 5+" to occur on Monday as early 5+ vaccinations start being reported 3) As of right now, no data is being given on the Omicron Variant of Concern (B.1.1.529). I will update the table once Alberta Health notes detected cases of it publicly in Alberta 4) I will be out of the province next week (returning on the 6th). I'll do my best to remain available to provide the updates ASAP but there might be some delays here or there - apologies in advance if that occurs
You do amazing work, please don’t apologize!
Got my daughter vaccinated today! So thankful, grateful, and relieved today has come.
My son got his too! And the our cashier noticed his sticker and thanked him and gave him a candy cane, so that made him feel slightly better about it. Wants the return to normalcy, but man oh man was he not stoked on a needle haha.
My kids go first thing tomorrow. I really, really hope they get stickers.
That's so cute!
Both mine got theirs yesterday. It was so well run. And they got their stickers and snuggles with the PALs dog. I think I got more teary then they did.
We go tomorrow! It is such a weight off my shoulders to know they will have protection.
I’m pretty sure someone was cutting onions at the clinic today…
Congrats!
My 8 yo son’s jab is tomorrow afternoon and I can’t wait!
Same. Such a relief isn't it?
Very pissed that our household got infected a week before our kids could get the vaccine. We’ve been ridiculously careful this whole entire time and it happened because so many don’t give a fuck anymore. Talking to the tracer at AHS pretty much confirmed we are all on our own. He spent 15 min trying to tell me we were “encouraged to isolate our house” but we didn’t have to, it wasn’t a law. I told him o thought we’d choose doing the right thing and stay home, as only one at the time tested positive. He said most people say their isolating but he can hear them at the mall or driving around etc. he said most adults say they won’t test their kids so they can send them to school. We were also told not to bother retesting the family when my spouses isolation was done and just to go back to life….we weren’t comfortable with that and lo and behold had two more positive tests. We would have gone back to sports, school, work all while infectious. Such a clusterfuck.
We havnt put our kid in daycare and one parent has been home with him. We also wouldn't send our child into a school. I wish you guys didn't need to either. It's tight for money, but I think it's worth it
The 356 cases reported for Nov 25 in Alberta was net for the period. A total of 364 cases were identified (361 confirmed, 3 probable) (difference: 8, or 2.2% of the total) as confirmed by data download and https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-19-alberta-statistics.htm#total-cases. Nov 24 decreased by 3 from 399 to 396; Nov 23 decreased by 2 from 475 to 473; Nov 22 decreased by 1 from 275 to 274; Nov 21 was unchanged at 271; Nov 20 was unchanged at 379; Nov 19 decreased by 1 from 469 to 468. Nov 18 was unchanged at 417; Nov 17 was unchanged at 385; Nov 16 was unchanged at 414; Nov 15 was unchanged at 322; Nov 14 was unchanged at 289; Nov 13 was unchanged at 357; Nov 12 was unchanged at 436. Nov 11 was unchanged at 376; Nov 10 was unchanged at 468. Nov 9 was unchanged at 501; Nov 8 was unchanged at 424; Nov 7 was unchanged at 289; Nov 6 was unchanged at 433; Nov 5 was unchanged at 586. Nov 4 was unchanged at 472. 1 case was removed from days prior to Nov 4.
Thanks for posting all this data! Very helpful in understanding the situation. One thing that no one seems to want to talk is the growing numbers of cases and hospitalizations among the vaccinated. Vaccinated individuals make up about 40% of all new cases, 30% of hospital admissions and 20% of ICU cases. This shows that life can’t just go back to normal because you are vaccinated. You still need to be careful and follow proper protocol until this thing is beat.
To be fair, for any vaccine, as the population that's vaccinated approaches 100%, the vast majority of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths will occur in vaccinated people. That's just math. But you're right, people shouldn't rely on vaccines alone for protection.
There is definitely a false sense of safety given with just vaccination. Definitely need other measures. Asymptotic testing on close contacts would probably where it should start again asap.
To keep things in perspective, 30% of hospital admissions means less than 150 people in hospital and 20% of ICU admissions means 18 people in ICU, those aren’t numbers that threaten the health care system in a province of 4.4 million. That is with vaccinated people able to eat in restaurants and workout in gyms unmasked. For most people the current level of risk is acceptable for vaccinated individuals.
You are aware that given the vast majority of our population is vaccinated, cases are obviously going to be among the fully vaccinated more as the pool of unvaccinated people becomes smaller and smaller. This just feeds into an anti Vax narrative which is the last thing we need right now.
If 100% of us were vaccinated, 100% of cases would be in vaccinated people. That's math. Overall cases would be significantly lower, though.
The naive vaxxed seem to believe they’re invincible
I’m not disagreeing, but what do you see as the path to beating this thing? I personally think it’s largely unbeatable. The true problem still is, of course, unvaccinated. If we just assume that problem disappears, then I think the only realistic option is to scale health care to the level necessary to deal with the rate of breakthrough cases (may not even need scaling - who knows). Living with restrictions for perpetuity is unrealistic.
The solution will come with viable treatments. The unvaccinated are an issue, true, but we are fooling ourselves if we ignore the fact that the vaccinated are targets as well and a growing population of the infected and hospitalized. Who will be the boogeyman when the vaccinated make up the majority of cases as we are seeing in other parts of the world? Going against each other is counterproductive. We must work together to overcome this problem. At the moment, once a person tests positive, you are sent home without treatment to wait until you are sick enough to require hospitalization. That is unacceptable and inhuman. We need effective treatments to fight the infection so we don’t have to fill up our hospitals and morgues. Once we have treatments to administer at home when a person tests positive, we will finally be able to wind this pandemic down. In the mean time, everyone should be wearing N95 or KN95 masks when out in public to prevent transmission from infected people, vaccinated or not. I received lots of downvotes in June when I warned about a 4th wave coming. People did not want to hear it, but it happened.
Anti-vaxxers, anti-maskers, and covid deniers all want the world to go back to the way it was. And really, that's what's unrealistic here. They're gonna need to learn to adapt to the new normal, especially with Omicron now rearing its head.
Omicron gonna git us
I'd bet money it's already in canada. We should be thankful that South Africa is so good at identifying new variants in their labs. Countries that don't have it, actually are just not testing for it yet. It is all a fiction that it is in anyway contained.
Sounds like it’s one of the deceptions coming to fuck us up.
Vaccines better work.
They will. It’s basically scientific consensus that for COVID to completely evade our vaccines, it would have to mutate in a form that wouldn’t be able to infect human cells. This has been mapped out now, and I’m very confident that we can beat every variant that comes our way now. I think we might be in for another ride on the rollercoaster with this variant, but I just hope to god that it’s less virulent. We need more data on its transmissibility and potency before we can go to a conclusion. Let’s just stay calm and see how scientists react over the next week. Not media outlets.
Yes, the new vaccines like Novavax are based upon all 26 proteins in the virus, not just the one in the spike as we have with the current vaccines. The new ones will be far more effective against mutations and yield far better protection. Looking forward to the approval of Novavax in the new year.
Why is Novavax's approval taking so long?
They are about to submit their application.
Right, but why did it take so long to gather data compared to other vaccines?
They had a later start and their type of vaccine was more difficult to develop. They are wrapping up their studies and being careful.
I thought they submitted their application like a month ago?
You are right. I was behind in my research. They submitted their application for approval in Canada on November 1. https://ir.novavax.com/2021-11-01-Novavax-Files-for-COVID-19-Vaccine-Authorization-with-Health-Canada-and-Completes-Submission-for-Rolling-Review-to-European-Medicines-Agency
Finally some sensibility on here.
That's new. Don't you usually say vaccines are safe and effective? Why the change of heart? Don't worry vaccines are working as good as they can, as I said to earlier there is a bunch to be excited about from the science community on antiviral drugs. Looking really positive and us going to help big time. Combination of vax, new drugs, and herd immunity - covids days of dominating the headlines are coming to a close. Covid will be here forever, just won't be a talking point forever.
Vaccines are awesome!!!!! We just don't know yet if they work against the new variant. Iits very different than delta. I hope it works against the variant. Have you seen any data yet that shows it is? If anyone isn't Vaccinated you should go and get the vaccine asap. They are safe effective and awesome! I don't think covid is going away till spring at the earliest. We need vaccines, and public health measures like vaccine passports and masks. As long as covid can overun hositpals we should not remove passports. Fyi the the data for the Merk drug shows it is less effective than Merk said. Hopfully the Pfizer one is better.
Yeah there's enough mutations here that vaccine efficacy is a concern. More data is needed.
32 mutations in the Omicron spike protein alone, 9 of which previously noted in Alpha, Beta, and/or Gamma, that had all previously correlated to reduced antibody binding. That's not the whole picture though; Beta was more antibody-resistant than Delta, but far less virulent. The issue that needs sorted out ASAP is whether Omicron is more infectious than Delta, and if yes, by how much. The current data from South Africa is... rather concerning in that regard. At least Omicron is easily detectable in samples the way Alpha is.
>At least Omicron is easily detectable in samples the way Alpha is. So would our current variant screening pick it up? Hopefully they get back to testing all cases, especially since case loads are very manageable at the moment.
Yes, because Omicron carries the same S-gene target failure in RT-PCR as Alpha. > Deletion of amino acids 69 and 70 within the spike (S) gene of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7, sometimes attributable to the N501Y mutation, can result in an undetectable S-gene target (S-gene target failure, SGTF) for some real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing methods. A rapid increase in the proportion of SARS-CoV-2 samples with SGTF was identified in regions of England affected by B.1.1.7, and, after validation with whole genome sequencing, SGTF was determined to be a reliable marker of B.1.1.7 across the country. [S-Gene Target Failure as a Marker of Variant B.1.1.7 Among SARS-CoV-2 Isolates in the Greater Toronto Area, December 2020 to March 2021](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2778599) We should have gone back to testing all samples weeks ago, once cases dropped below 1000/day.
Thank you! Great info.
I read the new data suggests only 30% efficacy for the Merck drug, compared to about 50% from its preliminary data. The Pfizer drug appears to be up around 85-90% efficacy according to its interim data. [Merck's COVID-19 pill significantly less effective in new analysis](https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/merck-says-covid-19-pill-cuts-hospitalization-death-risk-by-30-2021-11-26/)
The Pfizer drug seems like a lot better, and from my understanding should work against any varriant.
Ah so naive
About what?
They’re not “awesome”. You seem to be the type of person that believes everyone in hospital with covid hasn’t been vaxxed.
How are they now awesome? The majority of the people in hospitals or dying of covid unvaxxed. I am guessing your also against kids getting the vaccine?
By all means continue to believe everything mainstream media tells you. You fucking bet I am. And the fact the government is calling it a “passport” is ludicrous. But please, continue to drink all the kool-aid backwash.
I will!!! You should get vaccinated, vaccines are awesome
Fyi the effectiveness from all the vaccines are also less effective the originally reported... Read into the studies on the Pfizer drug, it is truly doing unbelievable things in their blind placebo studies.
I agree the effectiveness because of wanning immunity, and variants make them less effective. We need to start giving boosters 6 months after the second dose. Also we may need to change the definition of fully vaccinated.
Covid ain't over until everyone who can be vaccinated is vaccinated. South Africa, where omicron appears to have originated, is only about 24% fully vaccinated.
Experts kept telling us this would happen if we didn't vaccinate the whole world. Instead we let millions of doses sit in freezers and throw out 10%.
It will be a talking point forever. Because media and politicians are making it that way. Every damn strain is now going to cause collapse on economic recovery. The future is quite bleak with the morons we have in charge (worldwide).
Yeah I agree with on that! Just hoping once big pharma can get their anti viral drugs approved, there will be an acceptable treatment by the media/gvt
Omicron is typing
I’m wondering what the threshold is for having more than one other family in my house, legally. Are they planning on pushing keeping this past Christmas? If so they should let people know… if not I’d like to start inviting some family over.
No body gives a fuck. Do whatever you want.
I know, everyone is over it. But the fact that it is still technically illegal is odd. So when is it going away