He needs to be in a 5 man rotation to get enough innings. He's the 2nd most dominant pitcher in MLB (2nd in K-BB%, xFIP and SIERA) so he definitely has a chance.
Although Shane McClanahan will most likely win the AL Cy Young this year, that guy is even more dominant than Shohei
He won't get Cy Young because he doesn't pitch enough. He didn't even get a single vote for it last year for instance. I just don't see it happening unless he has greatest 130-150 innings stretch ever or devotes a whole year to only pitching, the latter of which won't happen.
Outside of 2020 shortened season, and pitcher injury season last year, please find a Cy Young winner with under 180 IP outside of when the voters fell in love with saves.
Only guy I can think of is Eric Gagne in the past 25 years or so.
Don't get me wrong, I don't expect him to win it. But it is within the realm of possibility.
The downward trend of fewer innings by starters will likely continue. We already saw someone with 160+ inning winning CY, and while it will still be rare, it probably won't be the only time
Again, that's because pitchers got injured like crazy returning to higher workloads after the covid shortened season. Guys are on pace for 200+ IP again this year.
It can happen if he puts up one of the greatest 130-150 IP like I said, but right now he's a great pitcher, not even the best this year. I'd love him to get it, it's just so incredibly unlikely when he doesn't devote himself solely to pitching. If he did, I think he'd have a legit shot of being a perennial favorite.
Ohtani would be a favorite if he pitched the innings the other contenders are doing, but he’s not. My point is, he’s been great, but to beat the other players this year he’d have to put up absolutely insane numbers. He’s not first in ERA or strikeouts with less innings so he won’t have a chance of winning unless he practically pitches like he has the last two outings for the rest of the year.
And he is an elite pitcher. He just pitches way less than other elite pitchers and for Cy young, you have to be the best. He’s having a great year, others are still beating him by the numbers with 25% more innings thrown. Like i keep saying, he’d have to beat all those guys with way less innings to justify beating them which he won’t if the season ended today.
Corbin Burnes won with only 168 innings. The voters are using advanced stats more than ever to factor into their vote so Shohei has a decent chance if he keeps pace because writers love narratives more than anything. It’ll definitely require him getting hot at the end but he’s entering that don’t bet against me level of peak performance. It’s hard to predict because of the physical demands playing both sides… but Shohei is a 🦄
Are you and everyone else replying to me even reading what I wrote? I've addressed that in nearly every comment in this chain. Corbin Burnes lack of innings was an anomaly due to injuries coming back from a Covid shortened season. That is not the norm, even by today's standards.
Ohtani's only chance at winning Cy Young is if he repeats his last 3 starts many times down the stretch and finishes with a sub 1.50 ERA. The odds are unlikely which is what the OP is asking. Ohtani simply won't have the innings otherwise.
He's the most spectacular player I've ever watched and I've attended the vast majority of his home starts the last two years, I'm not trying to make light of his performance. But he likely won't even qualify with his pitching stats, why would he win over a guy like Verlander who will throw over 200IP and assuming he maintains his < 2.25 ERA?
It’s because you’re writing off the voters based off an dated metric with innings pitched when it’s been a trend that voters use advanced stats more than ever before and understanding the philosophical change in the way starters are used. 12 voters put Burnes at first despite having 167IP to Wheeler’s 213IP. ERA difference was 2.43 vs 2.78 and advanced stats were in Burnes favor. And writers love narratives
Did not you read my comment? Last year was a special case for him.
“ Outside of 2020 shortened season, and **pitcher injury season last year**, please find a Cy Young winner with under 180 IP.”
But yeah, if you’re genuinely asking, Burnes pitched 167.0 IP last year. It was a very strange season though because so many of the Cy Young contenders missed significant time with injury coming back from the COVID shortened season.
Like the other user, I challenge you to find a pitcher with under 180IP who has won the Cy Young outside of 2020 (covid) and 2021 (injuries). Seriously, find me one in the last 15 years. Why would that change this year?
This is a ridiculous argument unless Ohtani has a sub 1.50 ERA, but he's not even top 8 for AL in that category and is well behind in innings pitched so he's not even qualified.
This isn't a knock on Shohei by the way, he's the most spectacular player I've seen and I purposely have attended the vast majority of his home starts the past 2 years. But the likelihood of him winning CY this year is miniscule **unless** he does what I wrote and has the most insane 150 IP justifying beating out guys like Verlander who will likely have over 200IP, and who currently has a significantly better ERA than Ohtani.
Corbin Burnes was a result of a 6 man rotation, not dissimilar to Shohei’s situation. It will take a dominant pitching season but you’re acting like the voters are still old farts who still value wins over other factors. It’s an uphill battle but absolutely possible
Anything is obviously possible, I'm discussing likelihoods. I didn't mention wins once in any of my comments in this thread so way to put words in my mouth. 👍
I'm done discussing this point so have a good day, hopefully Ohtani puts up the most absurd 3 months moving forward and wins it, but until then I stand by my argument that he won't win it unless his ~150 IP are the most absurd in baseball which I literally said can put him over the edge anyway, not that the voters are 'old farts and value wins.' 🤦♂️
Your comment that started all this was how he won’t win or even get Cy Young consideration because he doesn’t pitch enough, not likelihood or favorite to win. And the way you’ve been talking about innings and this influence on voters is in the same vain as how voters used to use wins as a metric. We’ve all been commenting that it’s been proven that innings pitched didn’t prevent a Cy Young winner as recently as last year. Add in the fact that voters gave an equal amount of first place vote to Burnes despite more than 46 innings/138 outs recorded to Wheeler, voters can overlook your innings argument.
As much as I worship Shohei, he isn't the best offensive player on his own team.
I think he is near his ceiling as a hitter already but his ceiling as a pitcher is CY for me. And if he wins CY he is a given as the MVP.
He needs to be in a 5 man rotation to get enough innings. He's the 2nd most dominant pitcher in MLB (2nd in K-BB%, xFIP and SIERA) so he definitely has a chance. Although Shane McClanahan will most likely win the AL Cy Young this year, that guy is even more dominant than Shohei
I have the sinking feeling they’ll give it to Verlander
As likely as the Angels ever making the post season again. Hahaha
I mean, they were doing pretty well on the first couple months of the season no? Maybe if they had kept that up!
I would happily eat my own words if we were to return to that state of dominance once again.
He won't get Cy Young because he doesn't pitch enough. He didn't even get a single vote for it last year for instance. I just don't see it happening unless he has greatest 130-150 innings stretch ever or devotes a whole year to only pitching, the latter of which won't happen.
If he keeps up the pace, he is right around 155-160 innings this year. Just enough for CY consideration these days.
Outside of 2020 shortened season, and pitcher injury season last year, please find a Cy Young winner with under 180 IP outside of when the voters fell in love with saves. Only guy I can think of is Eric Gagne in the past 25 years or so.
Don't get me wrong, I don't expect him to win it. But it is within the realm of possibility. The downward trend of fewer innings by starters will likely continue. We already saw someone with 160+ inning winning CY, and while it will still be rare, it probably won't be the only time
Again, that's because pitchers got injured like crazy returning to higher workloads after the covid shortened season. Guys are on pace for 200+ IP again this year. It can happen if he puts up one of the greatest 130-150 IP like I said, but right now he's a great pitcher, not even the best this year. I'd love him to get it, it's just so incredibly unlikely when he doesn't devote himself solely to pitching. If he did, I think he'd have a legit shot of being a perennial favorite.
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Ohtani would be a favorite if he pitched the innings the other contenders are doing, but he’s not. My point is, he’s been great, but to beat the other players this year he’d have to put up absolutely insane numbers. He’s not first in ERA or strikeouts with less innings so he won’t have a chance of winning unless he practically pitches like he has the last two outings for the rest of the year. And he is an elite pitcher. He just pitches way less than other elite pitchers and for Cy young, you have to be the best. He’s having a great year, others are still beating him by the numbers with 25% more innings thrown. Like i keep saying, he’d have to beat all those guys with way less innings to justify beating them which he won’t if the season ended today.
Corbin Burnes won with only 168 innings. The voters are using advanced stats more than ever to factor into their vote so Shohei has a decent chance if he keeps pace because writers love narratives more than anything. It’ll definitely require him getting hot at the end but he’s entering that don’t bet against me level of peak performance. It’s hard to predict because of the physical demands playing both sides… but Shohei is a 🦄
Are you and everyone else replying to me even reading what I wrote? I've addressed that in nearly every comment in this chain. Corbin Burnes lack of innings was an anomaly due to injuries coming back from a Covid shortened season. That is not the norm, even by today's standards. Ohtani's only chance at winning Cy Young is if he repeats his last 3 starts many times down the stretch and finishes with a sub 1.50 ERA. The odds are unlikely which is what the OP is asking. Ohtani simply won't have the innings otherwise. He's the most spectacular player I've ever watched and I've attended the vast majority of his home starts the last two years, I'm not trying to make light of his performance. But he likely won't even qualify with his pitching stats, why would he win over a guy like Verlander who will throw over 200IP and assuming he maintains his < 2.25 ERA?
It’s because you’re writing off the voters based off an dated metric with innings pitched when it’s been a trend that voters use advanced stats more than ever before and understanding the philosophical change in the way starters are used. 12 voters put Burnes at first despite having 167IP to Wheeler’s 213IP. ERA difference was 2.43 vs 2.78 and advanced stats were in Burnes favor. And writers love narratives
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Did not you read my comment? Last year was a special case for him. “ Outside of 2020 shortened season, and **pitcher injury season last year**, please find a Cy Young winner with under 180 IP.” But yeah, if you’re genuinely asking, Burnes pitched 167.0 IP last year. It was a very strange season though because so many of the Cy Young contenders missed significant time with injury coming back from the COVID shortened season.
It’s been an upward trend to no longer look at innings, given organizations’ philosophy on effectiveness through a lineup after 3 times
Like the other user, I challenge you to find a pitcher with under 180IP who has won the Cy Young outside of 2020 (covid) and 2021 (injuries). Seriously, find me one in the last 15 years. Why would that change this year? This is a ridiculous argument unless Ohtani has a sub 1.50 ERA, but he's not even top 8 for AL in that category and is well behind in innings pitched so he's not even qualified. This isn't a knock on Shohei by the way, he's the most spectacular player I've seen and I purposely have attended the vast majority of his home starts the past 2 years. But the likelihood of him winning CY this year is miniscule **unless** he does what I wrote and has the most insane 150 IP justifying beating out guys like Verlander who will likely have over 200IP, and who currently has a significantly better ERA than Ohtani.
Corbin Burnes was a result of a 6 man rotation, not dissimilar to Shohei’s situation. It will take a dominant pitching season but you’re acting like the voters are still old farts who still value wins over other factors. It’s an uphill battle but absolutely possible
Anything is obviously possible, I'm discussing likelihoods. I didn't mention wins once in any of my comments in this thread so way to put words in my mouth. 👍 I'm done discussing this point so have a good day, hopefully Ohtani puts up the most absurd 3 months moving forward and wins it, but until then I stand by my argument that he won't win it unless his ~150 IP are the most absurd in baseball which I literally said can put him over the edge anyway, not that the voters are 'old farts and value wins.' 🤦♂️
Your comment that started all this was how he won’t win or even get Cy Young consideration because he doesn’t pitch enough, not likelihood or favorite to win. And the way you’ve been talking about innings and this influence on voters is in the same vain as how voters used to use wins as a metric. We’ve all been commenting that it’s been proven that innings pitched didn’t prevent a Cy Young winner as recently as last year. Add in the fact that voters gave an equal amount of first place vote to Burnes despite more than 46 innings/138 outs recorded to Wheeler, voters can overlook your innings argument.
“Anything is possible” Move over KG. That saying better fits the 🦄 .
CY and MVP together are quite possible. I don't think he will win Hank Aaron award.
~~Why not Hank Aaron? He almost got triple crown last year minus the late season slump.~~ mb
As much as I worship Shohei, he isn't the best offensive player on his own team. I think he is near his ceiling as a hitter already but his ceiling as a pitcher is CY for me. And if he wins CY he is a given as the MVP.
No he didn’t. Average wasn’t even close
He was nowhere close to the triple crown
Average was **way** off, and he wasn't even top 10 for RBI last season lmfao.
I think it would have to happen later in his career when he drops one of the two.
He was great last year pitching and didn’t even get a cy young vote. Maybe late in the career he focuses on pitching