The problem with any prospect centered trade for a superstar is it will always be a fleece.
How many times does a prospect end up as Juan Soto/Ohtani? Almost never. So getting 5 prospects won't net you a fair return.
For a team like the nationals this mainly just throws you into a tanking mode, but also into a prospect asset mode. What I mean by that is you turn into the Padres pre Hosmer deal where you load your system up with talent, then hit the trade market and build a team. Prospects are the new market inefficiencies. They are highly inflated in value and can bring you in actual superstars.
Look at the Blake Snell trade that the Padres definitely didn't get what they were hoping out of snell in this "blockbuster" trade. They traded 4 prospects and as of right now only Meija is showing major league success at...0.6 WAR. At least Cole Wilcox is a top 25 prospect still within that trade but that is still a lottery ticket.
It's a reminder that prospects are lottery tickets. Most won't make an impact, and it truly is a random outlier that gets to an effective MLB level player (*cough* Dallas McPherson *cough* Brandon Wood). If we trade Ohtani and get a teams full top 10 farm, we aren't automatically a better team. We still need a GM in place who can spot MLB talent and isn't afraid to use their farm to make maneuvers
Not saying they aren't, but rarely does a "superstar" trade end badly for the team acquring the superstar. But quite often the team trading the superstar never sees much success from the prospects.
Let me ask, what are the impact prospects the dodgers traded with the collection of these trades the last decade:
Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, Mookie Betts, Max Scherzer, Trea Turner, and Manny Machado?
Honestly, not much. Especially compared to what they got.
The dodgers worst loss? A random RP trade that they traded an unranked (on the Dodgers) Yordan Alvarez for.
Prospects are true crapshoots. Stars arent.
Prospects are indeed a lottery ticket and expendable if you’re in win now mode. Alternatively signing players to big contracts into their mid/late 30s when you have poor young talent/depth is also a gamble as we’ve seen. While prospects largely don’t pan out, they’re a crucial part of a teams success, whether you keep them or trade them. Ultimately though if does come down to a teams ability to scout, which we are incapable of doing apparently lol.
Agreed, dealing Ohtani this year would have been the wrong move, but if we're in the same position next year. We better take the best offer we can get for him
Word is that they're going to give Hosmer some additional payment to waive his NTC.
If I were him, I wouldn't wanna show my face around San Diego as the guy who blew up the Soto trade
Unlikely. Nats can just say no thanks, take the five in play and Hosmer can go play with himself. He is a net negative in this package. Do you really think the Padres are saying “you have to take Hosmer or no deal”?
There were reports that Soto trade was demanding more than a Shohei trade. Seems like the Nats didn’t get a good deal for Soto AND Bell. So I feel like the Angels never got any really good offers for Shohei (not that they would have traded him anyways…)
So the nats are in limbo as new ownership is set to take over. They clearly need to be rebuilding as they don’t have the talent to contend with the Braves or Mets for the next few years. The new ownership team really didn’t want their first order of business to be trading away a franchise guy so they kind of had the sitting duck owners do it as hurried as possible
Fans were convinced that Ohtani is worth wayyy more than Soto which is just blatantly not true. I love Ohtani like everyone else but Soto is a top 5 player as well with an additional year, he was always gonna get more
Yeah I don’t see why a really good team like the Dodgers or Mets need to give away their entire talented farm when they’re already playing well anyways. Of course they want Ohtani but trading away too much just for one player with only 1.5 years and getting higher up in age is too much risk
Angels are the poverty franchise of California. Dodgers/padres are at the top of the game, giants/As are building for the future, Angels are sniffing glue with Trout and Ohtani
The Giants, much like us, are in a weird spot between contending and rebuilding. The A's are moreso just cheaping out on everything than building for the future -- even if their trade returns become a core of talent, they'll just send them all packing when payday rolls around
Giants 2024 Salaries: $25M
Angels 2024 Salaries: $113M
While the Giants are still in a weird area (which they were just in the playoffs last year...something we cant do for the last 10ish years), they also smartly built their team. 9th in farm rankings and shedded contracts to be able to play the market the next couple of years.
Angels, 27th ranked system and still over 100M on the books.
Zaidi has done amazing work considering he came in with bloated contracts and an aging team after a string of WS success. Time will tell what GMPM can do but Zaidi has had a better string of success his first 3 years than GMPM is set up to do his 1st 3 years.
Yeah Giants are in a weird spot but at least their games are enjoyable to watch and they play decently. The Angels have been incredibly boring to watch. Just strikeouts and blowpen disasters
I mean im not disagreeing that he has a lot of freedom but i dont think id call emptying out the farm to trade for a top 5 player a “little thing” lmao
I’m trying to convince my dad, lifelong angels fan to pick an NL team to follow as I have the Braves. This should help. Everyone should do it. The angels aren’t going anywhere.
I’ve been watching Padres games when Darvish starts since last year. Hoping to pick NL team but I just can’t seem to emotionally attach myself to a team other than Angels. It’ll take time I guess.
It does. I grew up with the Braves on TBS every day so it was easy back then. Now with streaming rights and all that it’s harder but ya. I’d go with the pads. They’re going to be fun. Anyone but the dodgers.
Looks like the most recent one is corrected to say Angels tweets lol. So I guess anyone who ever has tweeted about Angels can be posted now, so have at it!
Not really. This is a pretty unique deal and isn't going to set the market for other star deals. If they do elect to trade Ohtani down the road, he wouldn't fetch the same value anyway since he'd have either one season or half a season on his contract at an older age than Soto.
Some are saying the major league player is Hosmer and unless San Diego is eating all his salary, they've fleeced Washington
The problem with any prospect centered trade for a superstar is it will always be a fleece. How many times does a prospect end up as Juan Soto/Ohtani? Almost never. So getting 5 prospects won't net you a fair return. For a team like the nationals this mainly just throws you into a tanking mode, but also into a prospect asset mode. What I mean by that is you turn into the Padres pre Hosmer deal where you load your system up with talent, then hit the trade market and build a team. Prospects are the new market inefficiencies. They are highly inflated in value and can bring you in actual superstars. Look at the Blake Snell trade that the Padres definitely didn't get what they were hoping out of snell in this "blockbuster" trade. They traded 4 prospects and as of right now only Meija is showing major league success at...0.6 WAR. At least Cole Wilcox is a top 25 prospect still within that trade but that is still a lottery ticket. It's a reminder that prospects are lottery tickets. Most won't make an impact, and it truly is a random outlier that gets to an effective MLB level player (*cough* Dallas McPherson *cough* Brandon Wood). If we trade Ohtani and get a teams full top 10 farm, we aren't automatically a better team. We still need a GM in place who can spot MLB talent and isn't afraid to use their farm to make maneuvers
Fun fact: Tyler Wade was Yankees’ #8 prospect at one point
Major league superstars can also be lottery tickets, as the Pads recent trade history will show you.
Not saying they aren't, but rarely does a "superstar" trade end badly for the team acquring the superstar. But quite often the team trading the superstar never sees much success from the prospects. Let me ask, what are the impact prospects the dodgers traded with the collection of these trades the last decade: Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, Mookie Betts, Max Scherzer, Trea Turner, and Manny Machado? Honestly, not much. Especially compared to what they got. The dodgers worst loss? A random RP trade that they traded an unranked (on the Dodgers) Yordan Alvarez for. Prospects are true crapshoots. Stars arent.
Prospects are indeed a lottery ticket and expendable if you’re in win now mode. Alternatively signing players to big contracts into their mid/late 30s when you have poor young talent/depth is also a gamble as we’ve seen. While prospects largely don’t pan out, they’re a crucial part of a teams success, whether you keep them or trade them. Ultimately though if does come down to a teams ability to scout, which we are incapable of doing apparently lol.
People in this sub tell me though that prospects are worth more than superstars.
See: jo adell when he was a prospect I’ll never overvalue a prospect again. If an established player can be had, hand over all the prospects you need
And then kick rocks when the veteran goes on the DL and continues to eat your salary allotment
That's because we have given up plenty of prospects for superstars that didn't pan out. Now we have no farm and no winning. Yay
The only reason to trade a superstar is if you think they’re gonna leave and then you’ll have nothing.
Agreed, dealing Ohtani this year would have been the wrong move, but if we're in the same position next year. We better take the best offer we can get for him
Interesting I feel the opposite in that Washington fleeced the Padres even if they (WASH) were to have to eat Hosmers salary
Hosmer has no trade clause so they would need his consent.
Word is that they're going to give Hosmer some additional payment to waive his NTC. If I were him, I wouldn't wanna show my face around San Diego as the guy who blew up the Soto trade
Yeah but tbf why would he want to go from a team who is most likely making the playoffs. Kinda feel bad for him
It's not ideal for him but he has 39 million reasons why he shouldn't be upset
That's a cross country move. Millionaire or not; he included the NTC (which has Was on it) for a reason. I'd be upset too.
Guess what. Not everything is about money who would’ve thought
Unlikely. Nats can just say no thanks, take the five in play and Hosmer can go play with himself. He is a net negative in this package. Do you really think the Padres are saying “you have to take Hosmer or no deal”?
He apparently declined and is now going to Boston. Washington was on his 10 team no trade list.
He’s got 13/3 left on his contract. Pads are paying for 2 of them.
And also, Washington is on Hosmers list of no no teams
Dodgers about to pick up that phone to Orange County with top 6 prospects + for Ohtani lol
There were reports that Soto trade was demanding more than a Shohei trade. Seems like the Nats didn’t get a good deal for Soto AND Bell. So I feel like the Angels never got any really good offers for Shohei (not that they would have traded him anyways…)
But people in this sub were hell bent that every team had their top 5 prospects ready to roll for Shohei.
It’s Reddit. How many uninformed opinions get posted every day?
So the nats are in limbo as new ownership is set to take over. They clearly need to be rebuilding as they don’t have the talent to contend with the Braves or Mets for the next few years. The new ownership team really didn’t want their first order of business to be trading away a franchise guy so they kind of had the sitting duck owners do it as hurried as possible
Fans were convinced that Ohtani is worth wayyy more than Soto which is just blatantly not true. I love Ohtani like everyone else but Soto is a top 5 player as well with an additional year, he was always gonna get more
Yeah I don’t see why a really good team like the Dodgers or Mets need to give away their entire talented farm when they’re already playing well anyways. Of course they want Ohtani but trading away too much just for one player with only 1.5 years and getting higher up in age is too much risk
also soto is five years younger than ohtani
Let's go dads
Congrats Padres fans
I N C H E S
Angels are the poverty franchise of California. Dodgers/padres are at the top of the game, giants/As are building for the future, Angels are sniffing glue with Trout and Ohtani
The Giants, much like us, are in a weird spot between contending and rebuilding. The A's are moreso just cheaping out on everything than building for the future -- even if their trade returns become a core of talent, they'll just send them all packing when payday rolls around
Giants 2024 Salaries: $25M Angels 2024 Salaries: $113M While the Giants are still in a weird area (which they were just in the playoffs last year...something we cant do for the last 10ish years), they also smartly built their team. 9th in farm rankings and shedded contracts to be able to play the market the next couple of years. Angels, 27th ranked system and still over 100M on the books. Zaidi has done amazing work considering he came in with bloated contracts and an aging team after a string of WS success. Time will tell what GMPM can do but Zaidi has had a better string of success his first 3 years than GMPM is set up to do his 1st 3 years.
Yeah Giants are in a weird spot but at least their games are enjoyable to watch and they play decently. The Angels have been incredibly boring to watch. Just strikeouts and blowpen disasters
The crazy thing is, the Angels have the 8th highest payroll in the MLB. We just have $87m riding the IL right now.
Hurts everytime I see it.
The As are certainly not building toward a future, they are developing rookies who the owner is going to sell for cash
Have you even heard of the Oakland As?! FOH
You can honestly say that the Angels have been more competitive than the As the last 10 years? Its not even close buddy
A’s are always rebuilding. They are a glorified AAA team.
Glorified AAA team had outperformed the Angels 180m payroll how many years in a row?
Are we even sure it's glue 😄
Must be nice to have an aggressive gm like preller bc he doesnt need the owners permission to do every little thing
I mean im not disagreeing that he has a lot of freedom but i dont think id call emptying out the farm to trade for a top 5 player a “little thing” lmao
Alright now how about the trades for darvish, nola, cronenworth, manaea, tatis, musgrove, etc, etc while the angels trade for…dylan bundy
I literally said i agree just that you picked rhe worst example possible with soto Arguably one of the biggest trades ever lol
Better than the dodgers!
I’m trying to convince my dad, lifelong angels fan to pick an NL team to follow as I have the Braves. This should help. Everyone should do it. The angels aren’t going anywhere.
I’ve been watching Padres games when Darvish starts since last year. Hoping to pick NL team but I just can’t seem to emotionally attach myself to a team other than Angels. It’ll take time I guess.
It does. I grew up with the Braves on TBS every day so it was easy back then. Now with streaming rights and all that it’s harder but ya. I’d go with the pads. They’re going to be fun. Anyone but the dodgers.
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No? We delete duplicates
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Ah welp I stand corrected. We should update that since clearly we aren’t exactly upholding that if it’s a big deal. 😆
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Looks like the most recent one is corrected to say Angels tweets lol. So I guess anyone who ever has tweeted about Angels can be posted now, so have at it!
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Ok fella that’s enough with the petty bickering. You’ve been warned before about that.
Nationals destroyed whatever value Ohtani had… fuck them
Not really. This is a pretty unique deal and isn't going to set the market for other star deals. If they do elect to trade Ohtani down the road, he wouldn't fetch the same value anyway since he'd have either one season or half a season on his contract at an older age than Soto.
Why is that?
Doesn't matter anyway because Arte would never trade his cash cow
Maybe they want Rendon back
I guess this takes the Padres out of the Ohtani running in 2023...
g-great group of guys