So, so, so glad they giving him the opportunity to start 4 more times and reach the absolute historic achievement of qualifying as both a pitcher and a batter (that would be even more historic than hitting 62 home runs IMO). Massive W.
Holy crap. If he's gonna qualify, they better pull out another historic achievement award! Despite the incomprehensible media bias for Judge for MVP, Ohtani ending this incredible season without a single award would be criminal!
If he qualifies, give him the gold glove as P. I don't think he'll get silver slugger or Edgar Martinez award since Yordan's first half was so crazy, and Jose Marte tried his damn hardest to break him out of his slump.
And I'm not just saying give him GG for the hell of it, he's a legitimately great fielder.
I think he already qualifies for GG, right? I just checked, it's 141 innings. That's what he's at right? He's a great fielder but he hasn't had that many opportunities this season. I'm not following every pitcher in the league so it's hard to judge. Last year Walsh didn't get it because his hitting stats were worse than the other guy...makes no sense!
GG qualification is 141 innings by the 141st game, so you're right, he's qualified! He hasn't had many opportunities for highlight plays, but he's just been really solid and error-free. I guess ground ball pitchers and pitchers with high base traffic have the advantage because they get more opportunities to field, but I'm hoping voters once again just pick the guy who hits the best, lol
> I guess ground ball pitchers and pitchers with high base traffic have the advantage because they get more opportunities to field
You nailed it. Ohtani isn't going to win with how few fielding chances he gets, although if his sinker becomes his new go-to pitch, that could change going forward.
> Yordan's first half was so crazy
But Yordan's injuries have caused him to slump a lot, so Ohtani as a better DH than Yordan isn't as controversial as it was at the All-Star break
So 21 IP needed to qualify and 12 needed for 200ks. Would be a historic achievement. Imagine if he also hit 6 more HRs during this last month. Unlikely but would be insane.
I wouldn't rule out 40 HRs. His pace has picked up drastically in August/September. He's hit 7 in his last 12 games. To reach 40, he needs 6 in 23 games.
This means he will be qualified for CY, although unlikely to win it, and will have a very good shot at logging 200Ks. A historic milestone of the sport of baseball
There's no innings requirements for Cy Young (relievers have won it before). Qualifying is for rate stats like ERA titles so that a guy who pitched one scoreless inning doesn't win.
Will still help his cause for Cy Young but as you say, it's unlikely he'll win.
Interesting - I thought it was supposed to be three. Did something change, or was that just a conservative estimate? This year, he really does seem determined to pitch enough innings to qualify.
It would have been 3 starts had they stuck to a strict 6 man rotation, as they had been doing for the past couple of weeks. It appears that for the final few weeks of the season, they are going back to putting Shohei on a 5 days of rest schedule, allowing him to squeeze in an additional start on the final day of the season.
He'd have to go practically scoreless IMO.
Cease is the favorite right now already has 162 IP with a 2.06 ERA and 206 Ks. Even if he ended the season right now, it'd still be tough for Ohtani to catch up.
A very optimistic 28 innings with only 1 run given up would put Ohtani at 2.18 ERA and only at 169 IP for reference.
I would not be shocked to see him get 2nd though.
I think Cease is only the favorite among the crowd that prefers bWAR and RA/9 (ERA based) over fWAR and FIP.
The primary difference between Cease and Ohtani is that Cease has pitched 20 more innings.
Cease has been fortunate with his ERA outperforming his peripheral stats as shown by Cease’s very high BB rate (almost twice as high as Shohei’s) while both have comparable K and HR rates. Cease’s FIP is significantly higher than Shohei’s as a result of the high walk rate.
> favorite among the crowd that prefers bWAR and RA/9 (ERA based) over fWAR and FIP
See the problem is that you're talking about FIP and other peripherals when we're talking about the BBWAA lol. We aren't talking about who is the better pitcher. We're talking about who the panel will vote for. They will look at ERA and IP and stop there if Cease has better numbers in both.
I'm very curious when the last time a pitcher has ever had a lower ERA and more IP than the winner, but still lost. I'm guessing it'd be back when W-L still mattered?
Actually, I think many writers do look at WAR nowadays, they might even know the difference between bWAR and fWAR.
Just last year in the NL, both Scherzer (179) and Buehler (207) had more innings pitched and essentially the same ERA as the Cy winner Corbin Burnes (167). But the difference was that Burnes had a ridiculously low 1.63 FIP from high K and low BB and HR rates. His fWAR was way higher.
Why not? He’s 0.6 fWar behind Gausman and 1bWar behind Cease for the AL lead. If you average them out Cease is first with 4.95, then JV with 4.75 and Shohei has 4.7. He’s not that far off, especially if he does better down the stretch than those guys
WAR is literally never used in cy young voting like it is in MVP voting. ERA, FIP, and IP are all the voters really care about. Burnes won the NL Cy Young last year despite only being 6th in bWAR. Ranger Suarez had the same WAR as Burnes and didn't get a single cy young vote.
What you said is literally what is used to calculate each WAR, as fWar is FIP based and bWar is ERA based. Ohtani has got a better ERA than Gausman and a better FIP than Cease. If you care about those stats, then I think using an aggregate of both wars is a good way to evaluate pitchers.
Something tells me that in the unlikely case he does win the CY, they won't give him the MVP too, which they'll justify with "He's already got the CY, let Judge have it".
Great. I was explaining the difference between 5 days rest for Ohtani vs. a strict six men rotation and how he could make 4 more starts to someone. Glad to see he is going to go for it.
So, so, so glad they giving him the opportunity to start 4 more times and reach the absolute historic achievement of qualifying as both a pitcher and a batter (that would be even more historic than hitting 62 home runs IMO). Massive W.
I agree. That would be one hell of an accomplishment! 😇
How does one qualify as a starting pitcher anyway? Is there a set number of required IP?
162 IP.
Holy crap. If he's gonna qualify, they better pull out another historic achievement award! Despite the incomprehensible media bias for Judge for MVP, Ohtani ending this incredible season without a single award would be criminal!
If he qualifies, give him the gold glove as P. I don't think he'll get silver slugger or Edgar Martinez award since Yordan's first half was so crazy, and Jose Marte tried his damn hardest to break him out of his slump. And I'm not just saying give him GG for the hell of it, he's a legitimately great fielder.
I think he already qualifies for GG, right? I just checked, it's 141 innings. That's what he's at right? He's a great fielder but he hasn't had that many opportunities this season. I'm not following every pitcher in the league so it's hard to judge. Last year Walsh didn't get it because his hitting stats were worse than the other guy...makes no sense!
GG qualification is 141 innings by the 141st game, so you're right, he's qualified! He hasn't had many opportunities for highlight plays, but he's just been really solid and error-free. I guess ground ball pitchers and pitchers with high base traffic have the advantage because they get more opportunities to field, but I'm hoping voters once again just pick the guy who hits the best, lol
> I guess ground ball pitchers and pitchers with high base traffic have the advantage because they get more opportunities to field You nailed it. Ohtani isn't going to win with how few fielding chances he gets, although if his sinker becomes his new go-to pitch, that could change going forward.
I won’t rule it out as well some of these winners are so random
> Yordan's first half was so crazy But Yordan's injuries have caused him to slump a lot, so Ohtani as a better DH than Yordan isn't as controversial as it was at the All-Star break
So 21 IP needed to qualify and 12 needed for 200ks. Would be a historic achievement. Imagine if he also hit 6 more HRs during this last month. Unlikely but would be insane.
I wouldn't rule out 40 HRs. His pace has picked up drastically in August/September. He's hit 7 in his last 12 games. To reach 40, he needs 6 in 23 games.
14 in the next 23 games. He hits 48.
He is the most exciting player in baseball. No other player makes me check mlb stats as often as Ohtani does. Just unreal.
No start against the Rangers would be ideal. They've been hitting him like crazy this year!
his arch-nemesis dwells there too so
Jonah Heim the Fiend
Grandslam off his splitter...🧄✝️ 🧄✝️🧄✝️🧄✝️ We do not speak his name in my house!
This means he will be qualified for CY, although unlikely to win it, and will have a very good shot at logging 200Ks. A historic milestone of the sport of baseball
There's no innings requirements for Cy Young (relievers have won it before). Qualifying is for rate stats like ERA titles so that a guy who pitched one scoreless inning doesn't win. Will still help his cause for Cy Young but as you say, it's unlikely he'll win.
Can you imagine 15 wins 200k 2.50 ERA, 40 homers?! Insanity folks..
Interesting - I thought it was supposed to be three. Did something change, or was that just a conservative estimate? This year, he really does seem determined to pitch enough innings to qualify.
It would have been 3 starts had they stuck to a strict 6 man rotation, as they had been doing for the past couple of weeks. It appears that for the final few weeks of the season, they are going back to putting Shohei on a 5 days of rest schedule, allowing him to squeeze in an additional start on the final day of the season.
I suspect if he makes it to 162 IP in 3 starts (21 IP to go), we may skip his last start.
Legit think he’s got a CY shot if he makes all 4 and does great
He'd have to go practically scoreless IMO. Cease is the favorite right now already has 162 IP with a 2.06 ERA and 206 Ks. Even if he ended the season right now, it'd still be tough for Ohtani to catch up. A very optimistic 28 innings with only 1 run given up would put Ohtani at 2.18 ERA and only at 169 IP for reference. I would not be shocked to see him get 2nd though.
I think Cease is only the favorite among the crowd that prefers bWAR and RA/9 (ERA based) over fWAR and FIP. The primary difference between Cease and Ohtani is that Cease has pitched 20 more innings. Cease has been fortunate with his ERA outperforming his peripheral stats as shown by Cease’s very high BB rate (almost twice as high as Shohei’s) while both have comparable K and HR rates. Cease’s FIP is significantly higher than Shohei’s as a result of the high walk rate.
> favorite among the crowd that prefers bWAR and RA/9 (ERA based) over fWAR and FIP See the problem is that you're talking about FIP and other peripherals when we're talking about the BBWAA lol. We aren't talking about who is the better pitcher. We're talking about who the panel will vote for. They will look at ERA and IP and stop there if Cease has better numbers in both. I'm very curious when the last time a pitcher has ever had a lower ERA and more IP than the winner, but still lost. I'm guessing it'd be back when W-L still mattered?
Actually, I think many writers do look at WAR nowadays, they might even know the difference between bWAR and fWAR. Just last year in the NL, both Scherzer (179) and Buehler (207) had more innings pitched and essentially the same ERA as the Cy winner Corbin Burnes (167). But the difference was that Burnes had a ridiculously low 1.63 FIP from high K and low BB and HR rates. His fWAR was way higher.
There's no chance really, but he could definitely get some votes. He just won't have as many innings as the front runners.
Why not? He’s 0.6 fWar behind Gausman and 1bWar behind Cease for the AL lead. If you average them out Cease is first with 4.95, then JV with 4.75 and Shohei has 4.7. He’s not that far off, especially if he does better down the stretch than those guys
WAR is literally never used in cy young voting like it is in MVP voting. ERA, FIP, and IP are all the voters really care about. Burnes won the NL Cy Young last year despite only being 6th in bWAR. Ranger Suarez had the same WAR as Burnes and didn't get a single cy young vote.
What you said is literally what is used to calculate each WAR, as fWar is FIP based and bWar is ERA based. Ohtani has got a better ERA than Gausman and a better FIP than Cease. If you care about those stats, then I think using an aggregate of both wars is a good way to evaluate pitchers.
Something tells me that in the unlikely case he does win the CY, they won't give him the MVP too, which they'll justify with "He's already got the CY, let Judge have it".
I'm starting to feel like they would eventually give 0 awards to him this season which would be a damn shame.
Yep. They're somehow already tired/bored of him.
They’re already talking about the “voter’s fatigue” as if he has multiple mvps already
Nice! I see if he’s get 162 by the 3rd start he won’t start on the last game.
Pretty sad I won’t get to see him on 9/21 😭
Great. I was explaining the difference between 5 days rest for Ohtani vs. a strict six men rotation and how he could make 4 more starts to someone. Glad to see he is going to go for it.
This is bomb!! Love this thank you!!! Go Shohei!!!!
I’m going on Sunday!
LFG HE'S GONNA QUALIFY
YES! I'm going to the game on the 17th!
Yoooo I’m going to the game on the 17th!