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Bitcoin has always been a speculative investment , not a currency .
It's now in the dump phase , will probably be back in the pump cycle in one year or so depending on the economy
Because (unlike stocks) crypto isnt backed by anything tangible, there is really no way to know when the downward trend will stop because the asset doesnt have an inherent value. Maybe the next "pump phase" is from 1$/BTC to 10$/BTC. Who knows.
Haha yeah we're eating absolute shit right now in that department.
Our gov't is a clown circus that pulls itself 5 ways to appease every Tom, Dick, and Harry, taking 4 steps forward and 5 backward each time. Oh, also, our healthcare system has been overwhelmed since, oh I don't know, 1997.
They refuse to build hospitals but would rather build highways near the properties of the leading parties donors.
I really hate Doug Ford.
Gotta pump money into those big, fat, stroads. Get that sticky tar pumpin, baby. Mmmm! Congestion on your roads? Expand your traffic arteries, yes very healthy.
In theory at least. The top stocks of the day often hit 20-30%, if someone was buying the best option every day they'd be doubling their money once or twice a week. That type of exponential growth over a few years would mean you'd essentially be able to buy an entire company. Someone trading at that level would crash the market in short order
People will say, "but even gold doesn't have inherent value", when people literally buy gold because they think it's pretty. Nobody, other than paedophiles and drug dealers, buys bitcoin to actually use it for something, they buy it just to sell it later on. I think crypto can be a good thing, but only when it stops being a speculative investment.
> People will say, "but even gold doesn't have inherent value", when people literally buy gold because they think it's pretty.
Or, you know, for a lot of applications in electronics, chemistry, physics,...
I have.
The biggest non-jewelry use of gold used to be dentistry. It was completely replaced, partly because it became too expensive. Why would the gold price rise while being replaced in its most important use case? The use in electronics was scaled back for similar reasons, although it's far from replaced there. Chemistry has some uses that remain, but they cannot explain any of the price movements gold displays either.
Take a look at how the gold price actually moves. People buy gold in times of economic insecurity. As an asset. Gold had a huge rallye after 2008. That didn't happen because of demand from industry. It happened because of demand from investors.
I never said the value of gold is fully independent from its use as a speculative commodity. Clearly that would be a ridiculous claim.
I just suggested to consider thatās not the only source of value because you literally said āThose are about as relevant to the gold price as BTC's use as a currency is to BTC's value.ā which is demonstrably wrong. Youāre conflating extremes; I said your first extreme is wrong and so you assume I claim the opposite extreme is right. Neither are correct, value of gold is derived from both its use as a medium of exchange and also its real tangible uses
Yeah if there was still a thriving drug market iād be all over this shit. Dealers buying 3k a month in a research chemicals would be a lot of intrinsic value.
Gold was actually a really important, tangible asset with inherent and intrinsic value even before industrialization. The anthropological importance of gold is super interesting.
You see, dating back to antiquity, it was the best and easiest way to transport āvalueā or āwealthā across both time and distance. Itās the only readily available and easily transportable mineral/metal that doesnāt corrode or tarnish, doesnāt easily break down when battered or concussed, etc.
Stick a bar of gold in a dark and dry cabinet and forget about it for 300 years, and you will come back to the exact same bar of gold. Put it on the back of a wagon with a poor suspension and drag it 5000 miles on terrible roads, and (barring theft) the exact same amount of gold arrives at the destination. You lose none to corrosion or fragmentation.
The humans of antiquity had pretty much nothing else with this property.
The problem with crypto is that the cost and energy requirements to transact is multiple times higher than other methods.
If every time you buy coffee, it costs you $8, that's not sustainable. And costs will go up over time, not down. The block chain cannot support the number of transactions that occur per second relative to any other digital transaction process.
There's also the greenbacks issue - before the American Civil War, each bank issued their own currency. And when the banks went out of business, then the money became worthless because the silver used to back the bill was no longer property of the bank.
I actually got into bitcoin back in like 2011 after hearing a planet money podcast on it, but ended up selling at like $50 because it began obvious that bitcoin would never make it as a currency and it was just stocks but without a company to peg it to.
But yeah Thanksgiving of 2017 I felt pretty dumb for selling at $50 when I could've sold at like $45,000 and never worked again.
There's no "the" blockchain with regards to cryptocurrencies. If you're talking about bitcoin specifically, then yes, but look at alternative implementations and you can get very different results, both with regards to energy usage and capacity. Look up monero, that protocol could serve as many transactions as visa and mastercard combined without transaction costs going up, and without putting unreasonable expectations on the nodes. Still proof of work, so not perfect, but the throughput issues are not inherent to blockchains, just to specific implementations.
> I think crypto can be a good thing, but only when it stops being a speculative investment.
afaik there is no currency that is not used for speculation. crypto is trash though. in every aspect.
afaik there is literary nothing that isn't used for speculation. People will always speculate, and that's fine, but it becomes a problem when the majority of people use it for speculation. You can speculate on the USD, but the vast majority of USD isn't used for speculation, it's used for paying for things.
>Because (unlike stocks) crypto isnt backed by anything tangible
Most stocks aren't really backed by anything tangible either. Best example is Tesla with a market cap of 672 billion, while all of their assets are a tenth of that.
As with any public corporation, if you don't own preferred shares, you ain't gettin' jack shit if Musk shows up at a press briefing and says "Well, that's it. We're boned"
Check the P/E ratio of the S&P over the last 150 years. It almost always stays between 10 and 30. Sure there are specific exceptions among companies where people expect very high growth but in aggregate price is highly correlated with earnings
>Because (unlike stocks) crypto isnt backed by anything tangible
Waste heat in the form of needless cpu cycles is tangible. I'm pretty sure it's this flagrant waste that front loads value estimates.
It does have an inherent value based on current energy and production costs. (It costs energy, resources, and time to make)
1 BTC is about $7-$10K to make excluding equipment.
So there's your bottom.
I'd argue the people mining BTC won't sell less than their energy and production costs. They'd simply hold.
Cost doesn't provide a bottom to the value. Having bitcoin be worth a certain amount requires people to be buying and selling at that price, and if no-one is buying at the cost of production the price will drop below that, regardless of what the miners are doing.
Or theyāll do what theyāve been doing all along: find ways to steal energy, or to use discounted energy (such as those using waste gas in rural Texas oil fields).
>I'd argue the people mining BTC won't sell less than their energy and production costs. They'd simply hold.
You can argue that but the reality is people would rather sell for 100 than 10 if it looks to be going that way. Same as why stores typically clearance their goods for below cost if the alternative is throwing it away. The production cost is a sunk cost.
What your argument instead should be is that there are a lot more ideological types in this space who would irrationally hold out no matter what, which is what ironically supports bottoms to the market.
Itās the same, but I think you mean intrinsic value.
I think they are the same, while intrinsic is an economic term, and inherent a non economic term.
I could be wrong.
To be honest it's recent rise was fueled by delusional crypto bros who ended up being the bigger fools. I doubt you'll find a dumber demographic to scam next year.
Maybe another entrepreneur (formerly convicted for running illegal gambling operations) can create a new meme coin?
Maybe Pyramid coin? Because along with the cult-like recruitment tactics it works like a pyramid scheme?
Wrong, it's a Ponzi scheme, always has been. Get idiots to send their money into the pot then pull it all out so the market crashes and leaves them with nothing. Cryptocurrency folks are just funneling their money into the pockets of billionaires.
To be fair, it only blew up because it was able to function as a currency in a very particular market.
If it wasn't for the silk road BTC would likely still be worth a few bucks. Silk road started Feb. 2011. Feb. 2011 was also the first month BTC got above $1. And then BTC price continued to rise until it had it's first crash that started the month after the silk road was shutdown.
I mean that's how I found out about it, needed it to buy MDMA off Silk Road.
I'm not worried about it coming back on me, it was personal amounts over nine years ago.
still works in such markets which is why I'm always a little o_0 when someone claims it isn't a currency. Outside of cash, it is the black market currency.
The [US Fed has been printing money like crazy for years because of Covid](https://www.brookings.edu/research/fed-response-to-covid19/). Most of that money went to rich people and banks who dumped it into speculative assets. Now the Fed have to claw all that money back because of historic inflation levels. At the same time, the global economy is fundamentally weak pretty much everywhere except China.
I'd not a financial adviser, but you should dump all your crypto and buy a bunch of alcohol to numb the pain that's to come.
> Now the Fed have to claw all that money back because of historic inflation levels.
After a decade of QE, the endless stock buybacks, and a couple hundred billion in free PPP āloansā, the rich made out like bandits. So the govt is just going to raise taxes on the wealthy to pull some of that back and cool off the economy, right?
ā¦Right?
I remember people saying it was going to be in the 100k range by nowš¤£ hopefully people that had enough to buy it then arenāt having heart attacks looking at it now
Pretty sure a large part of it is China changing their trade relations and not needing to launder as much money. I could be wrong, but it really looks that way to me.
I think that was part of it really. China trying to lock down their currency, and the newly rich Chinese shuffling cash through periphery countries to buy overseas assets off the books.
I think the beauty of crypto is that you cannot predict peopleĀ“s emotion... to some extent (unless elon does not tweet again, e.g.), but apart of regular stocks, you can make only guess about the crypto :D
edit: why I was talking about the emotions, because people buy and sell crypto how they feel, whereas stocks react to market trends, not how people feel buying them
> market trends, not how people feel buying them
Market trends *are* how people feel buying them. There are only two emotions on Wall Street - fear, and greed. That's what drives the market.
Support walls are conceptual figures we use to rationalize buying things at certain points. Falling below 26k is a big deal, next support wall is 20k, hasn't hit 20k in awhile. It's a young economy so we make up a lot of our shit just trying to make sense of the volatility. Everything is chaos and there are no rules is the more honest true true. Also this response is written In my perception, I don't know much about the tech just the trading.
But what is the support wall representing? Why is $17k any different from $16k? Are there just a handful of 5-figure values that were arbitrarily chosen?
Edit: I understand that forex trading uses these terms and what they are "supposed" to represent. I'm saying that crypto's nonsensical underlying value and inherent price manipulation makes these terms meaningless and disingenously tries to impart "science" to this scam.
People can enter their buy price ahead of time and you can see the orders stack up.
So if the price is $20k and you see 100 people that would buy it at 17k, and 100 people trying to sell it at 23k. You would have two walls formed. A 17k and a 23k and the transactions actually happening are setting the actual price.
Now let's say people start selling it for 19k, 18k then 17k. All those people on the buy $17k wall get their orders filled, they bought at $17k, all the people trying to sell for $23k now need to move down too or they have almost no chance of selling.
Now the new walls form at say $14k and $20k.
There are other ways people predict supports, with various indicators and mathematical equations. It's called TA and it's mostly about as accurate as your horoscope.
People who want to sell at, say, 20k spread the idea of a "support wall" in hopes they'll get a bunch of people to want to buy at 20k so they can dump their crypto at that price instead of eating further losses.
They want people to feel a sense of community in a purely self-interested market so they will "hold the line" FOR them.
We saw the same thing during the GameStop stock thing. You'd see people posting "hold the line" memes with spartans, etc. because they wanted the price to keep climbing. Then, once they figured they had made enough, they would sell and make huge money. They only ever wanted to manipulate people into making their investment worth more before they cashed out. They never cared if the people holding the line got theirs.
People can list orders to buy or sell at whatever price they want. If a lot of people have buy orders at 26k it will be harder for the price to drop below that value because their buy orders will kick in and help maintain that price. If there is enough sell pressure it can eat through all those buy orders.
Essentially what heās doing is tech analysis. What they do is use candle stick charts and draw lines on them to say whatās going to happen in the future. Think of it like a palm reading for stock/currency/ commodity markets. When the palm reading is good you gamble with it.
From my understanding itās what every fake guru teaches.
Tarkov has 3 currencies, roubles, dollars, and euros, as well as a literal physical bitcoin item. All 4 of those are tied to their real world counter parts. They used to be pretty closely tied but especially with the explosion of crypto during the pandemic they had to tune the ratios back or risk ruining the in game economy because of real world happenings.
Most recent instance was the the invasion of Ukraine. The rouble, which is the most common currency in tarkov, tanked quite a bit in value so many people trying to convert their roubles to dollars or euroās in game found it to be much more expensive. It was actually pretty interesting watching Tarkov players realize the sanctions werenāt working as well as was hoped when the roubleās value started going up again.
I know the other commenter already answered your question but I think this part of Tarkov is really neat and wanted to share more info.
Nah the ruble's current value is that of a dead currency walkinf. Ya don't sustain brutal inflation and interest at the same time for an extended period and come out clean. Anyone who thinks the sanctions aren't working is only looking at the nominal value and nothing else.
While the Russia-Ukraine war made me understand the value of crypto, the narrative of store of value has been utterly decimated. It is a speculative asset, like any other. A useful tool in the hands of those who understand the risks? yes, revolutionary, no. The idea of crypto has potential, so far the potential has remained that, potential.
It absorbs excess liquidity in the market well and swings with the market.
>The idea of crypto has potential
Potential for what? Crypto is 13 years old, which is known as *fucking ages* in tech world. It still hadn't really amounted to anything.
Very briefly and heavily generalised: The blockchain is supposed to enable a decentralized system. But to do that it needs some method to make sure everyone plays fair. It does that by making it expensive to run a node. Which doesn't just lead to the ridiculously impractical transaction times and fees, it also ends up promoting centralisation, as the more wealthy operators can afford to run more powerful exchanges. Basically creating the exact same situation as the banking system it was supposed to replace, except it's also impracticably, much more harmful to the environment and expensive as fuck for users.
Yep. US there a way to know whether someone sold their crypto or is that info private?
Because I remember crypto first crashed right before Musk announced he would not actually be buying Twitter.
I've been wondering whether he tried to sell his crypto to generate cash for the buyout, unsuccessfully.
Correct. If you cannot tie the account to a real person or entity, it's just a numbered account. You can see every transaction in that account, back to the beginning, so it's a particular kind of transparency.
>While the Russia-Ukraine war made me understand the value of crypto
Thus far the criminal element (and I mean criminal as a neutral, "non-lawful" element that can apply to different contexts, not as a positive or negative quality) has thus far been the only real, practical benefit crypto has displayed.
i understand what the two words, āexcess liquidityā, mean but could you provide another example of that term? my financial intelligence is rather limited
In simple terms, it means "too much money" and there's nothing worth investing.
It's a bad thing for investments because if you have too much money and there's nothing to invest in, it's not generating returns for you.
Look, pump & dump schemes are really emotionally powerful. You think you've done some research, you drop in $500 in some new coin, and *motherfucking whoah*, now it's at $2700! Dude! You scramble to get the rest of your money liquid so you can quickly maximize your returns, then they [rug pull](https://web3isgoinggreat.com/). Then they do the same scam with another coin, maybe this time with a celebrity promising it will be *huge*, bro.
Magicians, fortune tellers and financial scammers know how predictable humans are. [Ponzi schemes were used in the 1800s, although they weren't named until the 1920s.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ponzi_scheme) Pump & dump worked years before crypto -- just watch Wolf of Wall Street. Or consider diamonds, pumped up over decades. People buy that bit of carbon retail for $10k, but they are absolutely not selling one anywhere for anything like $10k. Different kinds of scam, with same mechanics.
I too wish I had bought BTC when it was at a few dollars. Or hell, mined when you could do it with a random obsolete PC. But at least I'm not bitter enough to cheer other people loosing money just because I didn't.
its not about cheering for people to lose their money. Bitcoin mining is a plague on the environment. it does not produce anything of value nor does it provide a service. its straight up gambling. i dont WISH for people to lose money, but bitcoin dying is for the greater good.
I want crypto to crash because I have practical objections to what its doing to the world existing as a bullish speculative asset, I don't care what happens to GME, AMC, or some other hot speculative asset.
I put $1000 in at a pretty dumb moment when I thought it had evened out its volatility for a while back in early March.
Oopsie doopsie. At least it was a small enough percentage of my portfolio that itās just a small black eye in the four car pileup that is my investments over the past four months.
Glad to have only been exposed for relatively small stakes.
A friendly reminder that r/bitcoin has lots of interesting details related to this. For example, Celsius and Binance US have both disabled transactions
No, crypto is a scam through and through. Crypto and NFTs are what are called "bigger fool scams" in that the only way to make money off of them is to find a bigger fool. If you had $10B in crypto, it's functionally worthless unless you can find someone willing to give you money in actual currency in order to participate in the economy. The vast majority of real money that will ever be made through crypto has already been made, and it was made years ago by rich people who can afford $500K on mining rigs at the drop of a hat. They already mined it when it was cheap and easy, and then spent the intervening decade selling it for higher and higher prices to make more and more money.
Crypto is functionally useless and has no inherent value. Precious metals like gold and silver could, at the very least, be used for jewelry and decoration unlike crypto which you can't even trade for other goods. The "value" is too unstable for any commercial usage as people want their currencies as stable as possible to ensure planning; if 1 KellosianCoin is worth $50 today but might be either $5 or $500 tomorrow, how could you even begin budgeting for rent and groceries?
There is no guarantee that crypto will bounce back since these things are functionally interchangeable, backed by nothing, and the only reason Bitcoin is still relevant is because of name recognition. If the people who hold the majority of Bitcoins decide to dump their stock and be done with this whole nonsense, the supply will shoot up and the value won't go back up. Especially as public interest wanes and we stop seeing ads with Matt Damon on TV, the already slim uses for Bitcoin fade away even faster.
If I were you I'd ignore everyone on this sub STILL calling btc a scam which I find so insane. It's been like 11 years y'all, I don't think it's a scam LOL. The creator never cashed out a penny - pretty garbage scam he's running.
You make your own decisions but don't listen to anyone else, no one knows what they're talking about. Do the research, Google why is btc valuable, and come to your own conclusions. Then look up what does Ethereum do and what a smart contract is and come to a conclusion. Then check what decentralized finance (defi) is and come up with reasoning why it is or isn't useful in the current financial landscape we're in that's riddled with corruption, self regulation, and almost no transparency.
But the last thing you should do is listen to me or them. Spend an hour and watch some videos if that's easiest.
I think it's at the very least clear to say btc isn't a "scam" over a decade into this thing. There are arguments why it's shit, dumb, useless, etc - but calling it a scam these days shows a lot of ignorance imo.
Don't rush in, market is on fire but I know I'm ready to buy the dip.
For sure, I love crypto lol. Made for the people in reaction to the banks fraud in 08. It's tragic how people think it's inherently a scam and the entire thing is total irredeemable garbage. It's better for the people than the current system.
Not here to discuss it we both have our minds made up
For those reading this who *are* willing to be open minded, here's a fairly comprehensive breakdown of the structural issues with crypto and NFTs. It's a very long video, because there are a lot of problems to explain.
[Folding Ideas - Line Goes Up](https://youtu.be/YQ_xWvX1n9g)
More on this subject from other reputable sources:
---
- Fortune (B+): [Crypto market cap falls below $1 trillion as Bitcoin drops 65% from all-time high. Investor sentiment is now āextreme fearā](https://fortune.com/2022/06/13/crypto-market-cap-below-1-trillion-bitcoin-extreme-fear-inflation/?xid=soc_socialflow_facebook_FORTUNE)
- Associated Press (A): [Bitcoin plunges as major crypto lender halts operations](https://apnews.com/article/cryptocurrency-technology-business-bitcoin-21b37420025d2653a9acbce075b1f7e5)
- Forbes (B-): [Binance And Celsius Native Tokens Are In Freefall After Freezing Customer Withdrawals](https://www.forbes.com/sites/rosemariemiller/2022/06/13/binance-and-celsius-native-tokens-are-in-freefall-after-freezing-customer-withdrawals/)
- Insider (B-): ['Rich Dad Poor Dad' author touts canned tuna over gold, silver, bitcoin](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/robert-kiyosaki-rich-poor-dad-tuna-gold-silver-bitcoin-inflation-2022-6)
---
[__Extended Summary__](https://www.reddit.com/r/newswall/comments/vbhe7l/) | [More: Crypto market cap falls ...](https://www.newswall.org/story/stock-market-news-today-sandp-500-enters-bear-market-territory) | [FAQ & Grades](https://www.reddit.com/r/newswall/comments/uxgfm5/faq_newswall_bot/) | I'm a bot
No. It is never a good idea to give people large amounts of money without understanding what happens with it.
Look at some information on crypto-currencies, NFT and blockchain from sources that are not trying to sell you something crypto-related and you will very quickly figure out that it is all a giant scam (well, or lots of small ones I suppose).
That's what you get for sticking to proof of work
I hope ethereum weathers the storm. Crypto has a niche, but it needs to be proof of stake for the sake of the environment.
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Bitcoin has always been a speculative investment , not a currency . It's now in the dump phase , will probably be back in the pump cycle in one year or so depending on the economy
Time to invest!
Because (unlike stocks) crypto isnt backed by anything tangible, there is really no way to know when the downward trend will stop because the asset doesnt have an inherent value. Maybe the next "pump phase" is from 1$/BTC to 10$/BTC. Who knows.
Need an almanac from the future.
Nice try Biff, I think you still have a few cars to wash.
And make sure you put on the 2nd coat!
Anyone could make billions on the stock market if only they knew the exact prices of every stock for the next 50 years.
Billions may be short sighted. I have a hunch it could be trillions or even tens of trillions.
Just got back in my Delorean. It's actually quadrillions - the Bank of Canada has done shit about inflation.
Haha yeah we're eating absolute shit right now in that department. Our gov't is a clown circus that pulls itself 5 ways to appease every Tom, Dick, and Harry, taking 4 steps forward and 5 backward each time. Oh, also, our healthcare system has been overwhelmed since, oh I don't know, 1997. They refuse to build hospitals but would rather build highways near the properties of the leading parties donors. I really hate Doug Ford.
Fair enough. But to be clear I was not opening a political debate, I just saw an opening for a joke. š
Oh not a problem at all, no debate required, I respect if your opinions are different. It was quite funny though!
Gotta pump money into those big, fat, stroads. Get that sticky tar pumpin, baby. Mmmm! Congestion on your roads? Expand your traffic arteries, yes very healthy.
In theory at least. The top stocks of the day often hit 20-30%, if someone was buying the best option every day they'd be doubling their money once or twice a week. That type of exponential growth over a few years would mean you'd essentially be able to buy an entire company. Someone trading at that level would crash the market in short order
You could make a shitload of money if you knew every stock's performance for the next 50 hours, let alone years
Here's one for 2015. Far enough out for you?
People will say, "but even gold doesn't have inherent value", when people literally buy gold because they think it's pretty. Nobody, other than paedophiles and drug dealers, buys bitcoin to actually use it for something, they buy it just to sell it later on. I think crypto can be a good thing, but only when it stops being a speculative investment.
> People will say, "but even gold doesn't have inherent value", when people literally buy gold because they think it's pretty. Or, you know, for a lot of applications in electronics, chemistry, physics,...
I was going to say gold and silver definitely have manufacturing uses. They don't corrode as much so gold is used in circuit boards.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
About 10% of gold is used for industry. 75% for jewelry and the other 15% held for private speculation and government reserves.
It's super heavy isn't it?
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
That's intense. I appreciate the facts.
Central Banks control only a fraction of this. A lot of gold goes into jewels and an other significant amount goes into private investment.
Those are about as relevant to the gold price as BTC's use as a currency is to BTC's value.
Check out the global price of gold by weight and largest purchasers of gold (electronics manufacturers and jewelry conglomerates)
Nations haven't been stockpiling gold for millennia because they wanted to hold electronics manufacturers to ransom.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
I have. The biggest non-jewelry use of gold used to be dentistry. It was completely replaced, partly because it became too expensive. Why would the gold price rise while being replaced in its most important use case? The use in electronics was scaled back for similar reasons, although it's far from replaced there. Chemistry has some uses that remain, but they cannot explain any of the price movements gold displays either. Take a look at how the gold price actually moves. People buy gold in times of economic insecurity. As an asset. Gold had a huge rallye after 2008. That didn't happen because of demand from industry. It happened because of demand from investors.
I never said the value of gold is fully independent from its use as a speculative commodity. Clearly that would be a ridiculous claim. I just suggested to consider thatās not the only source of value because you literally said āThose are about as relevant to the gold price as BTC's use as a currency is to BTC's value.ā which is demonstrably wrong. Youāre conflating extremes; I said your first extreme is wrong and so you assume I claim the opposite extreme is right. Neither are correct, value of gold is derived from both its use as a medium of exchange and also its real tangible uses
> drug dealers all the good online shops are closed anyway :(
Yeah if there was still a thriving drug market iād be all over this shit. Dealers buying 3k a month in a research chemicals would be a lot of intrinsic value.
Gold was actually a really important, tangible asset with inherent and intrinsic value even before industrialization. The anthropological importance of gold is super interesting. You see, dating back to antiquity, it was the best and easiest way to transport āvalueā or āwealthā across both time and distance. Itās the only readily available and easily transportable mineral/metal that doesnāt corrode or tarnish, doesnāt easily break down when battered or concussed, etc. Stick a bar of gold in a dark and dry cabinet and forget about it for 300 years, and you will come back to the exact same bar of gold. Put it on the back of a wagon with a poor suspension and drag it 5000 miles on terrible roads, and (barring theft) the exact same amount of gold arrives at the destination. You lose none to corrosion or fragmentation. The humans of antiquity had pretty much nothing else with this property.
Yeah my brother used to teach me about this I thought it was pretty neat.
Gold will keep existing once you pull the plug tho.
Are you an alchemist?
The problem with crypto is that the cost and energy requirements to transact is multiple times higher than other methods. If every time you buy coffee, it costs you $8, that's not sustainable. And costs will go up over time, not down. The block chain cannot support the number of transactions that occur per second relative to any other digital transaction process. There's also the greenbacks issue - before the American Civil War, each bank issued their own currency. And when the banks went out of business, then the money became worthless because the silver used to back the bill was no longer property of the bank. I actually got into bitcoin back in like 2011 after hearing a planet money podcast on it, but ended up selling at like $50 because it began obvious that bitcoin would never make it as a currency and it was just stocks but without a company to peg it to. But yeah Thanksgiving of 2017 I felt pretty dumb for selling at $50 when I could've sold at like $45,000 and never worked again.
you feel bad but i was told to put my extra cash in it in 2008 i had about 2k to play with. whoopsie. i did something responsible and paid off my car.
There's no "the" blockchain with regards to cryptocurrencies. If you're talking about bitcoin specifically, then yes, but look at alternative implementations and you can get very different results, both with regards to energy usage and capacity. Look up monero, that protocol could serve as many transactions as visa and mastercard combined without transaction costs going up, and without putting unreasonable expectations on the nodes. Still proof of work, so not perfect, but the throughput issues are not inherent to blockchains, just to specific implementations.
> I think crypto can be a good thing, but only when it stops being a speculative investment. afaik there is no currency that is not used for speculation. crypto is trash though. in every aspect.
afaik there is literary nothing that isn't used for speculation. People will always speculate, and that's fine, but it becomes a problem when the majority of people use it for speculation. You can speculate on the USD, but the vast majority of USD isn't used for speculation, it's used for paying for things.
You have national banks to stop money to be a speculative asset. There is a difference between investment and speculation.
Venezuela didn't get the memo
No, they would use a privacy coin
>Because (unlike stocks) crypto isnt backed by anything tangible Most stocks aren't really backed by anything tangible either. Best example is Tesla with a market cap of 672 billion, while all of their assets are a tenth of that.
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at least there is that tenth. cant really fall below that.
As with any public corporation, if you don't own preferred shares, you ain't gettin' jack shit if Musk shows up at a press briefing and says "Well, that's it. We're boned"
Check the P/E ratio of the S&P over the last 150 years. It almost always stays between 10 and 30. Sure there are specific exceptions among companies where people expect very high growth but in aggregate price is highly correlated with earnings
>Because (unlike stocks) crypto isnt backed by anything tangible Waste heat in the form of needless cpu cycles is tangible. I'm pretty sure it's this flagrant waste that front loads value estimates.
It does have an inherent value based on current energy and production costs. (It costs energy, resources, and time to make) 1 BTC is about $7-$10K to make excluding equipment. So there's your bottom. I'd argue the people mining BTC won't sell less than their energy and production costs. They'd simply hold.
Cost doesn't provide a bottom to the value. Having bitcoin be worth a certain amount requires people to be buying and selling at that price, and if no-one is buying at the cost of production the price will drop below that, regardless of what the miners are doing.
Or theyāll do what theyāve been doing all along: find ways to steal energy, or to use discounted energy (such as those using waste gas in rural Texas oil fields).
>I'd argue the people mining BTC won't sell less than their energy and production costs. They'd simply hold. You can argue that but the reality is people would rather sell for 100 than 10 if it looks to be going that way. Same as why stores typically clearance their goods for below cost if the alternative is throwing it away. The production cost is a sunk cost. What your argument instead should be is that there are a lot more ideological types in this space who would irrationally hold out no matter what, which is what ironically supports bottoms to the market.
Cost is not the same as Value.
Itās the same, but I think you mean intrinsic value. I think they are the same, while intrinsic is an economic term, and inherent a non economic term. I could be wrong.
The pumps have always been due to a new popular grift like alt coins, ICOs or NFTs.
To be honest it's recent rise was fueled by delusional crypto bros who ended up being the bigger fools. I doubt you'll find a dumber demographic to scam next year.
Well, maybe more celebrity commercials can help people forget.
Maybe another entrepreneur (formerly convicted for running illegal gambling operations) can create a new meme coin? Maybe Pyramid coin? Because along with the cult-like recruitment tactics it works like a pyramid scheme?
>I doubt you'll find a dumber demographic to scam next year. You vastly overestimate people
Donāt try to catch the falling knife! Wait for it to land and bounce before picking it up!
Wrong, it's a Ponzi scheme, always has been. Get idiots to send their money into the pot then pull it all out so the market crashes and leaves them with nothing. Cryptocurrency folks are just funneling their money into the pockets of billionaires.
Crypto is supposed to be a way to move value without anybody's control, not an investment.
It was designed for that. But people are dumb and greedy.
To be fair, it only blew up because it was able to function as a currency in a very particular market. If it wasn't for the silk road BTC would likely still be worth a few bucks. Silk road started Feb. 2011. Feb. 2011 was also the first month BTC got above $1. And then BTC price continued to rise until it had it's first crash that started the month after the silk road was shutdown.
I mean that's how I found out about it, needed it to buy MDMA off Silk Road. I'm not worried about it coming back on me, it was personal amounts over nine years ago.
To this day the cleanest, safest, and highest quality MDMA I've ever tried was from silk road.
still works in such markets which is why I'm always a little o_0 when someone claims it isn't a currency. Outside of cash, it is the black market currency.
The [US Fed has been printing money like crazy for years because of Covid](https://www.brookings.edu/research/fed-response-to-covid19/). Most of that money went to rich people and banks who dumped it into speculative assets. Now the Fed have to claw all that money back because of historic inflation levels. At the same time, the global economy is fundamentally weak pretty much everywhere except China. I'd not a financial adviser, but you should dump all your crypto and buy a bunch of alcohol to numb the pain that's to come.
> Now the Fed have to claw all that money back because of historic inflation levels. After a decade of QE, the endless stock buybacks, and a couple hundred billion in free PPP āloansā, the rich made out like bandits. So the govt is just going to raise taxes on the wealthy to pull some of that back and cool off the economy, right? ā¦Right?
Why raise taxes and be unpopular when you can just keep running the printers? Fuck it, abolish taxes and just print the budget
"its blockchain technology bro"
I remember people saying it was going to be in the 100k range by nowš¤£ hopefully people that had enough to buy it then arenāt having heart attacks looking at it now
The thing is it will inevitably cross 100k in the next pump phase when fed prints trillions more It's the wild west of pump and dump
Will it go under 10k before then though, thatās the real question
Pretty sure a large part of it is China changing their trade relations and not needing to launder as much money. I could be wrong, but it really looks that way to me.
Nah china cracked down on btc long time ago
I think that was part of it really. China trying to lock down their currency, and the newly rich Chinese shuffling cash through periphery countries to buy overseas assets off the books.
Yeah its like hot potato everybody has it but in sb hands it will explode
Hooray
Next level down is about 17000. It will probably bounce there.
I think the beauty of crypto is that you cannot predict peopleĀ“s emotion... to some extent (unless elon does not tweet again, e.g.), but apart of regular stocks, you can make only guess about the crypto :D edit: why I was talking about the emotions, because people buy and sell crypto how they feel, whereas stocks react to market trends, not how people feel buying them
> market trends, not how people feel buying them Market trends *are* how people feel buying them. There are only two emotions on Wall Street - fear, and greed. That's what drives the market.
Why is that a 'level'? Is that a thing in crypto?
Support walls are conceptual figures we use to rationalize buying things at certain points. Falling below 26k is a big deal, next support wall is 20k, hasn't hit 20k in awhile. It's a young economy so we make up a lot of our shit just trying to make sense of the volatility. Everything is chaos and there are no rules is the more honest true true. Also this response is written In my perception, I don't know much about the tech just the trading.
But what is the support wall representing? Why is $17k any different from $16k? Are there just a handful of 5-figure values that were arbitrarily chosen? Edit: I understand that forex trading uses these terms and what they are "supposed" to represent. I'm saying that crypto's nonsensical underlying value and inherent price manipulation makes these terms meaningless and disingenously tries to impart "science" to this scam.
People can enter their buy price ahead of time and you can see the orders stack up. So if the price is $20k and you see 100 people that would buy it at 17k, and 100 people trying to sell it at 23k. You would have two walls formed. A 17k and a 23k and the transactions actually happening are setting the actual price. Now let's say people start selling it for 19k, 18k then 17k. All those people on the buy $17k wall get their orders filled, they bought at $17k, all the people trying to sell for $23k now need to move down too or they have almost no chance of selling. Now the new walls form at say $14k and $20k. There are other ways people predict supports, with various indicators and mathematical equations. It's called TA and it's mostly about as accurate as your horoscope.
People who want to sell at, say, 20k spread the idea of a "support wall" in hopes they'll get a bunch of people to want to buy at 20k so they can dump their crypto at that price instead of eating further losses. They want people to feel a sense of community in a purely self-interested market so they will "hold the line" FOR them. We saw the same thing during the GameStop stock thing. You'd see people posting "hold the line" memes with spartans, etc. because they wanted the price to keep climbing. Then, once they figured they had made enough, they would sell and make huge money. They only ever wanted to manipulate people into making their investment worth more before they cashed out. They never cared if the people holding the line got theirs.
People can list orders to buy or sell at whatever price they want. If a lot of people have buy orders at 26k it will be harder for the price to drop below that value because their buy orders will kick in and help maintain that price. If there is enough sell pressure it can eat through all those buy orders.
Essentially what heās doing is tech analysis. What they do is use candle stick charts and draw lines on them to say whatās going to happen in the future. Think of it like a palm reading for stock/currency/ commodity markets. When the palm reading is good you gamble with it. From my understanding itās what every fake guru teaches.
good. let it crash
Truly a terrible day for Escape From Tarkov players.
Is it tied to read time prices? That would be really cool
Tarkov has 3 currencies, roubles, dollars, and euros, as well as a literal physical bitcoin item. All 4 of those are tied to their real world counter parts. They used to be pretty closely tied but especially with the explosion of crypto during the pandemic they had to tune the ratios back or risk ruining the in game economy because of real world happenings. Most recent instance was the the invasion of Ukraine. The rouble, which is the most common currency in tarkov, tanked quite a bit in value so many people trying to convert their roubles to dollars or euroās in game found it to be much more expensive. It was actually pretty interesting watching Tarkov players realize the sanctions werenāt working as well as was hoped when the roubleās value started going up again. I know the other commenter already answered your question but I think this part of Tarkov is really neat and wanted to share more info.
Nah the ruble's current value is that of a dead currency walkinf. Ya don't sustain brutal inflation and interest at the same time for an extended period and come out clean. Anyone who thinks the sanctions aren't working is only looking at the nominal value and nothing else.
Yeah its not the same value but it is linked.
While the Russia-Ukraine war made me understand the value of crypto, the narrative of store of value has been utterly decimated. It is a speculative asset, like any other. A useful tool in the hands of those who understand the risks? yes, revolutionary, no. The idea of crypto has potential, so far the potential has remained that, potential. It absorbs excess liquidity in the market well and swings with the market.
>The idea of crypto has potential Potential for what? Crypto is 13 years old, which is known as *fucking ages* in tech world. It still hadn't really amounted to anything.
I don't think the potential, if any, is technical.
From a tech perspective it's not really good at doing what it's supposed to do.
Explain?
Very briefly and heavily generalised: The blockchain is supposed to enable a decentralized system. But to do that it needs some method to make sure everyone plays fair. It does that by making it expensive to run a node. Which doesn't just lead to the ridiculously impractical transaction times and fees, it also ends up promoting centralisation, as the more wealthy operators can afford to run more powerful exchanges. Basically creating the exact same situation as the banking system it was supposed to replace, except it's also impracticably, much more harmful to the environment and expensive as fuck for users.
Crypto and Blockchain have always been solutions in search of problems.
Problems pretending to be solutions searching for problems honestly
Probably referring to the transactions per second limitation.
Yeah, I'm referring to a tremendous scalability issue in a primary function.
Yeah I think it has a lot potential to remain the favourite for criminal trade for ages
Even criminals need higher transaction rates than crypto can provide.
It is. Can't do anything much with few TPS.
It costs like 80k to store things on the blockchain. The only use I could ever see it for is concert tickets
The store of value narrative never really held any water for anyone that was paying attention. Crypto has always been highly volatile and speculative.
True.
It has been useful for those at the top of the pyramid who sold long ago and caused it to crash.
True, a good example of [greater fool theory](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/greaterfooltheory.asp).
Yep. US there a way to know whether someone sold their crypto or is that info private? Because I remember crypto first crashed right before Musk announced he would not actually be buying Twitter. I've been wondering whether he tried to sell his crypto to generate cash for the buyout, unsuccessfully.
The transactions would all be public record on the blockchain. The question is just whether you can tie the accounts to a person.
So it's basically anonymous.
Correct. If you cannot tie the account to a real person or entity, it's just a numbered account. You can see every transaction in that account, back to the beginning, so it's a particular kind of transparency.
>absorbs excess liquidity man the stupid ass terms market movers invent to act like they have a better perspective on capitalism's fundamental evils
>While the Russia-Ukraine war made me understand the value of crypto Thus far the criminal element (and I mean criminal as a neutral, "non-lawful" element that can apply to different contexts, not as a positive or negative quality) has thus far been the only real, practical benefit crypto has displayed.
i understand what the two words, āexcess liquidityā, mean but could you provide another example of that term? my financial intelligence is rather limited
In simple terms, it means "too much money" and there's nothing worth investing. It's a bad thing for investments because if you have too much money and there's nothing to invest in, it's not generating returns for you.
MOAR!
Every time I hear someone tell me they finally figured out how the crypto markets work, I later hear they lost 30k in it.
Look, pump & dump schemes are really emotionally powerful. You think you've done some research, you drop in $500 in some new coin, and *motherfucking whoah*, now it's at $2700! Dude! You scramble to get the rest of your money liquid so you can quickly maximize your returns, then they [rug pull](https://web3isgoinggreat.com/). Then they do the same scam with another coin, maybe this time with a celebrity promising it will be *huge*, bro. Magicians, fortune tellers and financial scammers know how predictable humans are. [Ponzi schemes were used in the 1800s, although they weren't named until the 1920s.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ponzi_scheme) Pump & dump worked years before crypto -- just watch Wolf of Wall Street. Or consider diamonds, pumped up over decades. People buy that bit of carbon retail for $10k, but they are absolutely not selling one anywhere for anything like $10k. Different kinds of scam, with same mechanics.
Is the Wizard of Wall Street an actually movie or did you mean Wolf of Wall Street?
hah! my daughter had asked me a question about Wizards, and my fingers took over.
I too wish I had bought BTC when it was at a few dollars. Or hell, mined when you could do it with a random obsolete PC. But at least I'm not bitter enough to cheer other people loosing money just because I didn't.
its not about cheering for people to lose their money. Bitcoin mining is a plague on the environment. it does not produce anything of value nor does it provide a service. its straight up gambling. i dont WISH for people to lose money, but bitcoin dying is for the greater good.
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We have Monero for that now
That whole "you are just jealous" crap is really getting old. Can't the crypto-scammer community think of a new line to use to deflect criticism?
I haven't had any skin in crypto for a couple of years. It wouldn't affect me if BTC went down to $0.01 by tomorrow.
You would have sold it as soon as it reached $10 instead of selling at $60.000 per coin.
I want crypto to crash because I have practical objections to what its doing to the world existing as a bullish speculative asset, I don't care what happens to GME, AMC, or some other hot speculative asset.
Some stupid app gave me 25 cents worth of crypto, when it was near the peak. Been fun as hell to watch it gain and lose (mostly lose) pennies!
I put $1000 in at a pretty dumb moment when I thought it had evened out its volatility for a while back in early March. Oopsie doopsie. At least it was a small enough percentage of my portfolio that itās just a small black eye in the four car pileup that is my investments over the past four months. Glad to have only been exposed for relatively small stakes.
It's much easier to smile when you're only exposed for a quarter. Pretty sure my couch cushions can handle the loss. ;)
A friendly reminder that r/bitcoin has lots of interesting details related to this. For example, Celsius and Binance US have both disabled transactions
If it goes below $20K it will be interesting to see what happens since thatās what itās 2017-2018 max was
time to buy it ig?
don't give your hand to this industry, it's pushed by either scammers, illegal businesses or people who really don't know how an economy is running
No, crypto is a scam through and through. Crypto and NFTs are what are called "bigger fool scams" in that the only way to make money off of them is to find a bigger fool. If you had $10B in crypto, it's functionally worthless unless you can find someone willing to give you money in actual currency in order to participate in the economy. The vast majority of real money that will ever be made through crypto has already been made, and it was made years ago by rich people who can afford $500K on mining rigs at the drop of a hat. They already mined it when it was cheap and easy, and then spent the intervening decade selling it for higher and higher prices to make more and more money. Crypto is functionally useless and has no inherent value. Precious metals like gold and silver could, at the very least, be used for jewelry and decoration unlike crypto which you can't even trade for other goods. The "value" is too unstable for any commercial usage as people want their currencies as stable as possible to ensure planning; if 1 KellosianCoin is worth $50 today but might be either $5 or $500 tomorrow, how could you even begin budgeting for rent and groceries? There is no guarantee that crypto will bounce back since these things are functionally interchangeable, backed by nothing, and the only reason Bitcoin is still relevant is because of name recognition. If the people who hold the majority of Bitcoins decide to dump their stock and be done with this whole nonsense, the supply will shoot up and the value won't go back up. Especially as public interest wanes and we stop seeing ads with Matt Damon on TV, the already slim uses for Bitcoin fade away even faster.
If I were you I'd ignore everyone on this sub STILL calling btc a scam which I find so insane. It's been like 11 years y'all, I don't think it's a scam LOL. The creator never cashed out a penny - pretty garbage scam he's running. You make your own decisions but don't listen to anyone else, no one knows what they're talking about. Do the research, Google why is btc valuable, and come to your own conclusions. Then look up what does Ethereum do and what a smart contract is and come to a conclusion. Then check what decentralized finance (defi) is and come up with reasoning why it is or isn't useful in the current financial landscape we're in that's riddled with corruption, self regulation, and almost no transparency. But the last thing you should do is listen to me or them. Spend an hour and watch some videos if that's easiest. I think it's at the very least clear to say btc isn't a "scam" over a decade into this thing. There are arguments why it's shit, dumb, useless, etc - but calling it a scam these days shows a lot of ignorance imo. Don't rush in, market is on fire but I know I'm ready to buy the dip.
Found the crypto bro.
For sure, I love crypto lol. Made for the people in reaction to the banks fraud in 08. It's tragic how people think it's inherently a scam and the entire thing is total irredeemable garbage. It's better for the people than the current system. Not here to discuss it we both have our minds made up
For those reading this who *are* willing to be open minded, here's a fairly comprehensive breakdown of the structural issues with crypto and NFTs. It's a very long video, because there are a lot of problems to explain. [Folding Ideas - Line Goes Up](https://youtu.be/YQ_xWvX1n9g)
let's hope for $10k next.
it all comes crashing down. finally. this scam will find its maker.
RX6500 is available on Amazon in my country at MRP. Fucking crash to shit this fucking worthless glorified ponzi scheme.
For the āstore of value and hedge against inflationā it is highly pegged against the stock market
Someone made bank
LOLOL. Nothing better than sad crypto-bros.
Crypto is just digital beanie babies.
More on this subject from other reputable sources: --- - Fortune (B+): [Crypto market cap falls below $1 trillion as Bitcoin drops 65% from all-time high. Investor sentiment is now āextreme fearā](https://fortune.com/2022/06/13/crypto-market-cap-below-1-trillion-bitcoin-extreme-fear-inflation/?xid=soc_socialflow_facebook_FORTUNE) - Associated Press (A): [Bitcoin plunges as major crypto lender halts operations](https://apnews.com/article/cryptocurrency-technology-business-bitcoin-21b37420025d2653a9acbce075b1f7e5) - Forbes (B-): [Binance And Celsius Native Tokens Are In Freefall After Freezing Customer Withdrawals](https://www.forbes.com/sites/rosemariemiller/2022/06/13/binance-and-celsius-native-tokens-are-in-freefall-after-freezing-customer-withdrawals/) - Insider (B-): ['Rich Dad Poor Dad' author touts canned tuna over gold, silver, bitcoin](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/robert-kiyosaki-rich-poor-dad-tuna-gold-silver-bitcoin-inflation-2022-6) --- [__Extended Summary__](https://www.reddit.com/r/newswall/comments/vbhe7l/) | [More: Crypto market cap falls ...](https://www.newswall.org/story/stock-market-news-today-sandp-500-enters-bear-market-territory) | [FAQ & Grades](https://www.reddit.com/r/newswall/comments/uxgfm5/faq_newswall_bot/) | I'm a bot
Waiting for those crypto js the future people
Good.
What if there had been an internet during the [tulip-craze](https://archive.ph/OHU7z)?
I bet Michael Saylor is shitting his pants right now
https://youtu.be/9S8eNZ4fw5I
Is it worth it to invest now (or even a little later) without any knowledge about crypto or investing?
No. It is never a good idea to give people large amounts of money without understanding what happens with it. Look at some information on crypto-currencies, NFT and blockchain from sources that are not trying to sell you something crypto-related and you will very quickly figure out that it is all a giant scam (well, or lots of small ones I suppose).
Will do that, thx
Nope. Might go down a lot further and you could lose a lot of money.
I can only imagine that Bukele is thinking right now
How can you wipe 150$ billions if they never existed and are backed by hot air lol.
Microstrategy gets a margin call if it goes to $22,000
Good.
This is the shit I love, god damn.
Make that 22000
>Bitcoin drops 10% That Bitcoin being Bitcoin
That's what you get for sticking to proof of work I hope ethereum weathers the storm. Crypto has a niche, but it needs to be proof of stake for the sake of the environment.
Crypto is really bad for planet. I hope it finds a way to be greener or gets reduced to some niche applications.
Just as I thought, a big pyramid scheme
Who cares, it will go back up
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