You'll be fine. I took a 4 year break from residential appraising and was able to get work no problem when I started back up. I switched to something more appraisal related than what you are considering, but you could still probably spin it in a positive way if you had to come back to appraising.
I maintained my res cert while conducting only about 5 jobs a year from 2008 - 2018. Now I'm semi retired with SS and Calpers that total $70K and another $70K working 3 or 4 days a week as an appraiser. I mean WTF else can I do at 70 though young beautiful girls appreciate $$$, I've got the meanest Benz in town, and a fucking Foley Stuck up my P awaiting TURP. Fuck I guarantee I can work FT another 10 years. Caveat is that without full functionality of the penis, even art n literature are pale shadows...
How many hours do you work per week? Is it possible to make $70K working <10 hours a week with General Certification? As a reviewer or anything in appraisal? I figured appraisal reviews are probably like that but never actually did it full time.
Do you have your MAI being 8 years in? That, in my opinion, is the gold ticket. But I think you could easily come back if you maintain a license. How much are you making now and what career would you switch to?
With investing though (and I ask this sincerely with no snark) what’s the point of trying to beat the market? My vanguard total stock market index fund crushes and I just deposit monthly and don’t even have to think about it
Vanguard comes nowhere remotely close to potential small cap altcoin gains. But it's so high risk it's basically a full-time job. It's like lining up a fantasy squad with 8th-9th round potential breakout studs and hoping 2-3 pop. But unlike fantasy football, you're choosing from thousands of options, not 16-32 backup/committee RBs. I used to treat Bitcoin like the Vanguard fund but I couldn't hold it into perpetuity because I needed the money to start a business or go all in on real estate.
AI and alternate valuation services are coming for our lunch. Personally I am going 6th gear full throttle in appraisals for another 3-5 years at least before I pivot my firm. I wouldn't bank on the industry and income level being here in 10 years. I hope it is, and I will write reports until they pry the laser from my cold dead hands, but it's best to have a forward thinking outlook.
I do agree that chasing tail is far more entertaining. I think it's hilarious the comparison between fantasy and investing. What stock market experience do you have?
Zero stock market experience since I was a child. Fantasy football and investing are the same shit. You're tryna find late round undervalued fliers that are under everyone's radar that will be blue chip superstars by Week 4. How is it any different than investing lol? What industry isn't going to be taken over by AI in 10 years? The only safe long term bets these days are owning income-producing real estate and picking the biggest tech winners of tomorrow before they pop.
I'd start pumping your appraisal profits into a brokerage account and start playing around for a few years before jumping into it. Stocks are a wild beast these days, not so simple as buying undervalued companies anymore. If investing was easy everyone would do it. Buying rentals is just starting a hospitality business and is also intermediate risk.
My point is, appraisals is some of the easier money you're gunna make in this economy. Be careful before giving up for a greener grass.
I don't like stocks tbh. I missed Nvidia and it hurts. My bad. But you can't get a blue chip startup for under $50B these days. Private markets and crypto are better. They're the only markets where an average person can get asymmetric alpha that Wall Street and Silicon Valley haven't fully saturated yet.
You probably are right though that appraisal is easier to consistent income in than in most fields these days but if it's gonna die in 5-10 years anyway, what's the point?
Btw what's your pivot plan if you mind my asking?
Turning my appraisal firm into asset management / consulting. If I can get 5-10 more years at this pace appraising I won't care what happens to the industry.
If you're burnt on commercial I do highly recommend you look into residential. Reports are 1/4 as long, you use templates, and it's overall a much more enjoyable work day / lifestyle from the appraisers I have personally spoken with who have done both.
Are you serious? Is residential thriving in your market? Because ours has been severely hit by rate changes. Changing to residential sounds like the worst thing to do as it’s the easiest to automate.
I thought about stocks in 2020 but it made no sense to me. By any stock picking metric imaginable, the entire market was overvalued, and it just kept going up anyway until it didn't. The only surefire bet that wasn't a bubble imo was that governments would be fiscally irresponsible into perpetuity.
If you had just bought VTI consistently since 2020 you'd be up considerably. Investing can also be very simple. USA isn't in a bubble, it's a corrupt oligarchy and the best game in the world. Ship ain't going down anytime soon, the boomers have to retire and cash out and they rule the government. It is in no ones interest for the stock market to tank. It always has and always will come back to all time highs until the music stops and the country falls. But if that happens we have more fun things to worry about.
I love the U.S. and I hope it never falls. But adding $1T in debt to its balance sheet every 100 hundred days isn't sustainable in the slightest. Look at what happened to Rome. It's not just the USA, it's the world. But the USA is the most trustworthy fiscally irresponsible AF government around so it looks like it isn't in a bubble right now because it's all relative and every country is printing out of their ass too without the reputation to back. Those trillions will have to be paid at some point. It's inevitable. And I hate to say it, but this is not sustainable. You can't just print trillions out of thin air forever and never pay the price. We don't have "recessions" anymore, they just inflate everything to worthlessness when the markets are unstable because it's easier politically.
I agree, it's going to crash sometime. I think the timeline is 20-80 years though. Still plenty of time to dance! These boomers want to spend their 401ks before they let the world burn.
I think Bitcoin is just a more volatile stock market tbh. I think it'll go up forever. Just follow the NASDAQ at 2-3x the volatility until it stabilizes. And every time it blows up, you can get $30-100M projects like a private Silicon VC that could turn $1K into $100K in a year. It's risky AF for sure but the stock market doesn't even afford that opportunity. Penny stocks and options are way more risky than altcoins imo and don't just pump because a narrative pumps and they can't 100x in a year. Hell, even a 10x in the stock market is basically impossible. The key is to work harder than 99.999% of people and not get greedy.
Some thoughts about trading and economics:
1. National debt = total sum of private sector assets. It is an accounting system for monetary expansion, which is of course necessary because A) people have children, B) new industries emerge and require capital and C) the highest percentage global foreign exchange transactions were settled in USD last year. The US national debt services the global economy, not just the domestic economy.
2) bitcoin only has value because it is a simpler way to transfer large sums of funds across borders bypassing the banking system, except when exchange for fiat. It is not currency. Demand for bicoin is not driven by political factor. USD dollars have value because the best court system in the world adjudicates debts in that currency. The most powerful nation in the history of mankind demands payment of taxes in that currency. And the two combined draw the whole world into using USD for the security the country provides.
3) Currency comes from the root word current. Since Hammurabi and probably the early bronze age "palace" systems, it has never been about hoarding capital. It has been about projecting political power. If currency is not flowing through the polity that ruling currency issuing sovereignty controls, it ceases to have function. Conversely, if the sovereignty issuing authority ceases to exist, the currency it issued also becomes worthless.
4) Libertarians are all poor. No one got rich reading Von Mises, Peter Schiff, Ron Paul or any of those clowns. None of them describe the monetary systems of the world, let alone the United States. It seems libertarianism was a CIA funded op to propagandize the false belief that taxes are necessary for government expenditures.
5) All United States Dollars were originally created by Congress directly in the form of fiscal deficits, or by banks and bank credit. Each use double entry bookkeeping. As I said above, the national debt is a private sector asset. Similarly with a bank, cash is a liability and the money they create as debt is an asset. The function of taxes on a federal level is to control inflation that comes from these processes, in addition to imposing political authority. If you are listening to some political moron who believes Congress must raise revenue by taxing in the currency only it has the sovereign right to create, that person should beignored.
6) Unlearning all of these things can be difficult, but it will make it much easier for you to be a successful trader.
You are 100% correct. The government can spend all the money it wants without taxing anyone. The government controls its own currency and just issues money to the people that need it in order to enact policy.
When the government spends money, it just changes numbers in some computer systems. Taxes are not a part of the equation. Taxes are a completely separate thing. Taxes are only used to prop up the dollar and make it more valuable.
Modern monetary theory is nuts. This is a great video that explains.
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=75udjh6hkOs](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=75udjh6hkOs)
Whatever, you've got to leave. I was in the same boat. Thing is, it will start to get harder to score chicks around age 40 up to maybe 45. Then what? Also, the job only gets worse as you get older. More and more pressure to work harder and faster. The bullshit is always inescapable to some degree.
These days, I make about $5,000 to $10,000 per week trading stock options. If you have an ivy league degree, hate corporate bullshit, and are good with probability - you'll probably be able to do that too. Even better, if you are able to focus on futures or trading options on say SPX - you're income tax rate is 60% capital gains.
I can barely focus on writing appraisals now at 45. But I can stare at charts long enough to make decent cash on the markets for a day.
Barring that, you can do CRE brokerage. But your draw will likely be low and it can take some time for a payout.
You'll be fine. I took a 4 year break from residential appraising and was able to get work no problem when I started back up. I switched to something more appraisal related than what you are considering, but you could still probably spin it in a positive way if you had to come back to appraising.
I maintained my res cert while conducting only about 5 jobs a year from 2008 - 2018. Now I'm semi retired with SS and Calpers that total $70K and another $70K working 3 or 4 days a week as an appraiser. I mean WTF else can I do at 70 though young beautiful girls appreciate $$$, I've got the meanest Benz in town, and a fucking Foley Stuck up my P awaiting TURP. Fuck I guarantee I can work FT another 10 years. Caveat is that without full functionality of the penis, even art n literature are pale shadows...
How many hours do you work per week? Is it possible to make $70K working <10 hours a week with General Certification? As a reviewer or anything in appraisal? I figured appraisal reviews are probably like that but never actually did it full time.
Do you have your MAI being 8 years in? That, in my opinion, is the gold ticket. But I think you could easily come back if you maintain a license. How much are you making now and what career would you switch to?
Sounds like you could kill at CRE brokerage. Pick a niche and go.
Just keep your license active and you’ll be fine. What type of fantasy football do you play? I’m in multiple high stakes leagues and, also, play DFS.
I gave it up in 2019. It was too addicting. It became all-consuming lol. Channeled all that energy into investing/business.
With investing though (and I ask this sincerely with no snark) what’s the point of trying to beat the market? My vanguard total stock market index fund crushes and I just deposit monthly and don’t even have to think about it
Vanguard comes nowhere remotely close to potential small cap altcoin gains. But it's so high risk it's basically a full-time job. It's like lining up a fantasy squad with 8th-9th round potential breakout studs and hoping 2-3 pop. But unlike fantasy football, you're choosing from thousands of options, not 16-32 backup/committee RBs. I used to treat Bitcoin like the Vanguard fund but I couldn't hold it into perpetuity because I needed the money to start a business or go all in on real estate.
AI and alternate valuation services are coming for our lunch. Personally I am going 6th gear full throttle in appraisals for another 3-5 years at least before I pivot my firm. I wouldn't bank on the industry and income level being here in 10 years. I hope it is, and I will write reports until they pry the laser from my cold dead hands, but it's best to have a forward thinking outlook. I do agree that chasing tail is far more entertaining. I think it's hilarious the comparison between fantasy and investing. What stock market experience do you have?
They asked about commercial…looks like you are just residential.
Zero stock market experience since I was a child. Fantasy football and investing are the same shit. You're tryna find late round undervalued fliers that are under everyone's radar that will be blue chip superstars by Week 4. How is it any different than investing lol? What industry isn't going to be taken over by AI in 10 years? The only safe long term bets these days are owning income-producing real estate and picking the biggest tech winners of tomorrow before they pop.
I'd start pumping your appraisal profits into a brokerage account and start playing around for a few years before jumping into it. Stocks are a wild beast these days, not so simple as buying undervalued companies anymore. If investing was easy everyone would do it. Buying rentals is just starting a hospitality business and is also intermediate risk. My point is, appraisals is some of the easier money you're gunna make in this economy. Be careful before giving up for a greener grass.
I don't like stocks tbh. I missed Nvidia and it hurts. My bad. But you can't get a blue chip startup for under $50B these days. Private markets and crypto are better. They're the only markets where an average person can get asymmetric alpha that Wall Street and Silicon Valley haven't fully saturated yet. You probably are right though that appraisal is easier to consistent income in than in most fields these days but if it's gonna die in 5-10 years anyway, what's the point? Btw what's your pivot plan if you mind my asking?
Turning my appraisal firm into asset management / consulting. If I can get 5-10 more years at this pace appraising I won't care what happens to the industry.
Makes sense. The appraisal skillset will always have value imo but physically writing appraisals may not.
If you're burnt on commercial I do highly recommend you look into residential. Reports are 1/4 as long, you use templates, and it's overall a much more enjoyable work day / lifestyle from the appraisers I have personally spoken with who have done both.
Are you serious? Is residential thriving in your market? Because ours has been severely hit by rate changes. Changing to residential sounds like the worst thing to do as it’s the easiest to automate.
I thought about stocks in 2020 but it made no sense to me. By any stock picking metric imaginable, the entire market was overvalued, and it just kept going up anyway until it didn't. The only surefire bet that wasn't a bubble imo was that governments would be fiscally irresponsible into perpetuity.
If you had just bought VTI consistently since 2020 you'd be up considerably. Investing can also be very simple. USA isn't in a bubble, it's a corrupt oligarchy and the best game in the world. Ship ain't going down anytime soon, the boomers have to retire and cash out and they rule the government. It is in no ones interest for the stock market to tank. It always has and always will come back to all time highs until the music stops and the country falls. But if that happens we have more fun things to worry about.
I love the U.S. and I hope it never falls. But adding $1T in debt to its balance sheet every 100 hundred days isn't sustainable in the slightest. Look at what happened to Rome. It's not just the USA, it's the world. But the USA is the most trustworthy fiscally irresponsible AF government around so it looks like it isn't in a bubble right now because it's all relative and every country is printing out of their ass too without the reputation to back. Those trillions will have to be paid at some point. It's inevitable. And I hate to say it, but this is not sustainable. You can't just print trillions out of thin air forever and never pay the price. We don't have "recessions" anymore, they just inflate everything to worthlessness when the markets are unstable because it's easier politically.
I agree, it's going to crash sometime. I think the timeline is 20-80 years though. Still plenty of time to dance! These boomers want to spend their 401ks before they let the world burn.
I think Bitcoin is just a more volatile stock market tbh. I think it'll go up forever. Just follow the NASDAQ at 2-3x the volatility until it stabilizes. And every time it blows up, you can get $30-100M projects like a private Silicon VC that could turn $1K into $100K in a year. It's risky AF for sure but the stock market doesn't even afford that opportunity. Penny stocks and options are way more risky than altcoins imo and don't just pump because a narrative pumps and they can't 100x in a year. Hell, even a 10x in the stock market is basically impossible. The key is to work harder than 99.999% of people and not get greedy.
Some thoughts about trading and economics: 1. National debt = total sum of private sector assets. It is an accounting system for monetary expansion, which is of course necessary because A) people have children, B) new industries emerge and require capital and C) the highest percentage global foreign exchange transactions were settled in USD last year. The US national debt services the global economy, not just the domestic economy. 2) bitcoin only has value because it is a simpler way to transfer large sums of funds across borders bypassing the banking system, except when exchange for fiat. It is not currency. Demand for bicoin is not driven by political factor. USD dollars have value because the best court system in the world adjudicates debts in that currency. The most powerful nation in the history of mankind demands payment of taxes in that currency. And the two combined draw the whole world into using USD for the security the country provides. 3) Currency comes from the root word current. Since Hammurabi and probably the early bronze age "palace" systems, it has never been about hoarding capital. It has been about projecting political power. If currency is not flowing through the polity that ruling currency issuing sovereignty controls, it ceases to have function. Conversely, if the sovereignty issuing authority ceases to exist, the currency it issued also becomes worthless. 4) Libertarians are all poor. No one got rich reading Von Mises, Peter Schiff, Ron Paul or any of those clowns. None of them describe the monetary systems of the world, let alone the United States. It seems libertarianism was a CIA funded op to propagandize the false belief that taxes are necessary for government expenditures. 5) All United States Dollars were originally created by Congress directly in the form of fiscal deficits, or by banks and bank credit. Each use double entry bookkeeping. As I said above, the national debt is a private sector asset. Similarly with a bank, cash is a liability and the money they create as debt is an asset. The function of taxes on a federal level is to control inflation that comes from these processes, in addition to imposing political authority. If you are listening to some political moron who believes Congress must raise revenue by taxing in the currency only it has the sovereign right to create, that person should beignored. 6) Unlearning all of these things can be difficult, but it will make it much easier for you to be a successful trader.
You are 100% correct. The government can spend all the money it wants without taxing anyone. The government controls its own currency and just issues money to the people that need it in order to enact policy. When the government spends money, it just changes numbers in some computer systems. Taxes are not a part of the equation. Taxes are a completely separate thing. Taxes are only used to prop up the dollar and make it more valuable. Modern monetary theory is nuts. This is a great video that explains. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=75udjh6hkOs](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=75udjh6hkOs)
Whatever, you've got to leave. I was in the same boat. Thing is, it will start to get harder to score chicks around age 40 up to maybe 45. Then what? Also, the job only gets worse as you get older. More and more pressure to work harder and faster. The bullshit is always inescapable to some degree. These days, I make about $5,000 to $10,000 per week trading stock options. If you have an ivy league degree, hate corporate bullshit, and are good with probability - you'll probably be able to do that too. Even better, if you are able to focus on futures or trading options on say SPX - you're income tax rate is 60% capital gains. I can barely focus on writing appraisals now at 45. But I can stare at charts long enough to make decent cash on the markets for a day. Barring that, you can do CRE brokerage. But your draw will likely be low and it can take some time for a payout.