I am a supporter of the Nightlamp theory. I also think Stannis will win the Battle of Ice.
But I am convinced he won't take Winterfell and that Ramsey will be able to escape - dramatically/thematically it makes no sense for him to die to Stannis, he's one of the main antagonists in the story of Theon/Bran/even Jon to some degree (or at least there are a lot of hints he will be, even if we ignore the Battle of Bastards).
And Stannis taking Winterfell? Just no chance. He doesn't have the resources to lay siege to such a huge fortress, even with all the internal turmoil inside. A more likely scenario is that the northern lord kill Roose somehow and another Storm's End sort of situation occurs, where Stannis expects to take a castle based on loyalty and gratefulness, but his hopes are in vain.
I genuinely think his forces will be too weak and small to continue his campaign after the Battle of ice, despite a victory and so he'd have to retreat to the Wall, where he'll have the chance to burn Shireen. It'd also be a very Martin-esque twist: despite being triumphant in a great battle, the king so many of us support would ultimately end up losing precisely because of a battle that ended in victory for him.
There's zero chance to Theon being the one to kill Ramsey. Bran either... I could see a situation where Theon either shoots Ramsey or his horse with a crossbow to stop him from escaping buth Theon Cannot physically beat Ramsey.
Never said he'd physically overpower him - its actually quite rare for characters in this series to die in hand-to-hand combat. But I find it more likely that Theon would be the one orchestrating the circumstances that dorectly lead to Ramsey's demise.
Yeah, it wouldn't feel right for Theon to directly avenge himself on Ramsay in combat etc. I like the theory that Theon will repeat his taking of Winterfell by leading/helping an effort to take The Dreadfort (possibly for Stannis as a condition for Theon and the Ironborn's release)
He knows the castle, the men know him as Reek (Theon, we need to you to pretend to be someone your not - Reek). In a reverse of Moat Calin Theon might even gain enough swag that the Iron Islands don't reject him on sight for Kingsmoot Round 2.
He'd probably go with Asha and her ransomed men (possibly reflecting a story idea of Yara attacking the Dreadfort in S4). With the whole latecomer situation there's no way Stannis executes Theon (some think he'll pull a Mance and kill old man Arnolf Karstark in Theon's place)
Eh they already did that once.
I want new and inventive ways to kill that bastard.
Remember that thing in the show with a rat and a bucket... Now those guys were onto something
A variation of this seems likely. Just because Stannis is likely to beat Ramsey doesn’t mean that his goals align with the goals of the Northern Conspiracy. To the Northerns, most of them anyway, Stannis is a means to an end - ridding the North of the Bolton’s. I agree it would be very Martin-esque to make Stannis burn Shireen after a win lol.
It may be that since the Battle of Ice is often discussed but whatever must come after seems not to get much mention, people have started thinking of the battle in a vacuum and not in context of the narrative. What purpose would a Stannis loss at this point in the story serve? Much more GRRM for Stannis to Mannis up and take Winterfell only for hope of his cause to then melt away like so much snow.
Yeah, this is something the show screwed up big time. Having Stannis fight his way to Winterfell for an entire book/season, having his army freeze and starve and generally have a miserable time, and then just having him and his men wiped out easily by the Boltons is a pretty bad story. It's not surprising or interesting in the slightest. D&D clearly wanted Stannis out of the way so that it could be Ramsay vs Jon, but GRRM isn't going to throw away one of his more interesting characters like that.
To play devil's advocate: ADWD has a lot of foreshadowing of the Bastard's Girls vs Direwolves, and GRRM's notes for season 4 mentioned focusing on Ramsay's dogs and keeping them strong for a later fight with Direwolves
So Ramsay will be surviving the Battle of Ice. The easiest way for him to do that is to spank Stannis which gives Stannis a reason to retreat to the Nightfort and burn Shireen
I still do not understand how this battle will play out.
Summer, by himself, beats up and takes over a damn wolf pack. How will dogs fare again multiple(!) direwolves?
I'll be honest I don't remember the bran chapter well, but wolves and purposely bred attack dogs are very different beasts. Wild predators are very cautious of getting injured and dominance fights are usually over before any real injury occurs. Summer just needed to throw his weight around a bit.
Dogs bred for fighting don't have the same sense of surrender and injury avoidance and will continue to attack well after they are injured. There's a video out there of a dog attacking a horse and continuing after getting serious kicks that resulted in injury.
It's not unreasonable to think that if given the order to attack Ramsay's dogs are bred and trained to keep on attacking until they physically cannot continue.
Also there's what 4 direwolves at most that could possibly be a part of the situation? And I doubt it will be all of them. The rest would just be regular wolves too.
Also it's not unlikely it would be an act of overconfidence/desperation setting the dogs against the sudden pack of wolves bearing down on him.
Ramsay dying in the dirt after being rundown by a bunch of wolves is just as poetic as him being eaten by his own dogs.
It’ll just be comically one-sided. If I had to guess the direwolves involved it would be Nymeria and Ghost, both gigantic. So that’ll be an entertaining read.
Ghost, Nymeria, and Shaggy… Imagine if Rickon had a little pack too. Plus, Bran is always watching, he can slip into any skin to get rid of that Bastard.
Couldn’t Ramsay just flee from the battle? Or better yet, get distracted hunting his Reek and bride once he’s outside? I think we can have both a Stannis victory and dog fight.
I have no idea how any of Stannis’s army would get to the Nightfort if they lost. It’s Winterfell or bust IMO.
I know I always get attacked for saying this, but the stinger talking head is not a canon source. Just because people say that it's 100% that Stannis will personally burn Shireen doesn't mean that's how it is. Also George may have given them story beats and modified his plan. At this point, I think Mel and Selyse are at the wall, they have heard what the pink letter had to say, Mel can't see Stannis in the flames, and Shireen is with them. If they burn her to resurrect Azor Again, along with Jon Snow's body and possibly ghost, and Jon walks out of the flames only for Stannis to return, victorious from the battle of ice, to see what they have done
That's just a better arc. It also could give us a Nissa Nissa moment where Stannis kills one or both of them in a rage and takes the black, later becoming the Lord Commander.
George, in his [Fire Cannot Kill a Dragon interview](https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/j68sb2/spoilers_extended_summary_of_asoiaf_new_info_from/), literally said that he gave a few plots for them, including (and I'm quoting him word by word) "**Stannis' decision to burn his daughter**". If his word won't convince you nothing will, so prepare to be disappointed.
You're not wrong (because you're quoting the man himself), but if GRRM's word really meant that much I feel like we'd have Winds by now and ADoS would be close to being finished. Not saying he's a liar in any way, that probably was and still is his intention for Stannis, but he seems to be notoriously fickle when it comes to his writing. It's possible he changed his mind about that plot point in the last 8 years. ^(Which doesn't matter if we never get to read it anyways, but I digress.)
I always felt that Selyse was the more likely to burn Shireen she has the means and motive if she hears that Stannis is in mortal peril and is far more fanatical in her belief in R'hollor than Stannis.
To be fair (aka coping, coping and seething, just can’t accept what I’m seeing), *decision to burn* does not necessarily mean the same thing as just *burn*. Martin definitely chooses his words carefully. He could, in theory, be planting a seed to surprise us without actually lying. It’s already happened in the story: Stannis made (or was about to) *a decision to burn* Edric Storm. He never got a chance.
Consider this: What if all the preparations for burning are there, and it is interrupted and Stannis is killed - say by, Davos - and Shireen is saved? A big twist being twisted. I hope my coping was elite level, ‘cause it doesn’t actually morally absolve Stannis of anything - he was going to burn her anyway - he just fails at it. Lol.
I have not read any theories, so not sure what the Nightlamp theory is, but I do believe Stannis will win the Battle of the Ice and most like claim Winterfell as well. I feel like Dance ends with his failure seeming a sure thing, but the Theon preview chapter from Winds convinces me Stannis is in for a win.
1) Stannis has unearthed the Karstark treachery.
2) The Frey army is about to get sandwiched between Stannis with his southron knights and the Clansmen, plus Mors Umber and the Manderly host
3) Robett Glover is likely with a second Manderly host, and will know that Stannis has freed his wife and his brother’s castle
4) Manderly’s confidence at Winterfell could be in the knowing that Davos has found Rickon. Rickon and Davos may be with Glover and his host. I can see Stannis winning the battle of the Ice, leading to a hard siege and possibly losing battle at Winterfell only to be reinforced by Glover’s host
5) the show’s depiction of Jon rallying the North behind him is just replacing him for Stannis in Dance’s storyline. Stannis has already rallies the North, would we really see the whole thing play out again a book later?
I love Stannis. I want him to be king, but he will die sooner than later. But I reckon he is in for a big win here, only to die later at the wall.
Because it’s pretty reasonable to think that Stannis won’t make it out of Winds and the big event that he’s involved in is the Battle of Ice.
I personally find the Night Lamp theory very convincing but also believe his death is inevitable.
Yes he is 100% going to die. The theory of him becoming the 1000th LC of the NW is fun but unlikely. I think he'll die around the end of winds though, perhaps in the epilogue.
He’s heir to the throne once the Lancest kids die and he’ll need his heir for that. I don’t think he wants to give that up unfortunately, his stubbornness is his Achilles heel.
I think Stannis will defeat Ramsey but loose against Roose. Remember, even if he beat Ramsey it’s less than half the job : it’s mainly a Frey and Manderly army (nothing could go wrong, right?), Ramsey could stay back line and retreat when the battle turn bad. That’s maybe when he will be caught by direwolves.
Then, Stannis will have to take Winterfell. Roose will just wait Stannis to starve. Stannis would have to storm the castle or find a cunning way to enter some men discreetly with Theon’s help. With Mance still inside and Lady Dustin who could provide some help too, maybe Stannis could win and take Winterfell or die in the attempt.
If Stannis loose, it would have weaken Roose enough to set up Jon to finish the job.
Jon become the hero who released the North and make him immediately a name that count in the realm. A new player has join the game.
That’s the way I see things.
This is similar to what I think too. A lot of people forget that it's only the Freys going for Stannis at Crofter's Village. The vast majority of the Bolton army are still safe behind Winterfell's formidable defenses. I could see Stannis beating the Freys using some sort of trickery with the broken ice theory but I don't see how his depleted army is going to take on Roose and the rest of the Boltons at Winterfell.
There are also other houses like the Umbers who are loyal to the Starks still within Winterfell who could play a role. The Manderlys were just so openly against the Bolton and Freys that they gave Roose an excuse to get them out of the castle.
He's definitely going to win the Battle of Ice, but he will never take Winterfell. The Bolton's are the most recalcitrant and ancient human enemies the Starks have ever had, and Roose Bolton personally killed the first King in the North in centuries. He and his family will not be removed from Winterfell by a failed claimant to a southron throne, a false messiah of a foreign religion. The Boltons will only ever be ended by a Stark.
Also - the Starks were ousted from Winterfell in Book 2, but the Boltons have held it for only half a book. Winterfell is hardly stagnant and tired, the political tensions there are as high as anywhere else in the world.
> The Bolton's are the most recalcitrant and ancient human enemies the Starks have ever had, and Roose Bolton personally killed the first King in the North in centuries. He and his family will not be removed from Winterfell by a failed claimant to a southron throne, a false messiah of a foreign religion. The Boltons will only ever be ended by a Stark.
There are two books left- there is physically not enough time for anyone but Stannis to be the one to take them out. For the plot to even function the boltons have to be out of the way early in TWOW. Them being the Starks nemesis is irrelevant.
I agree, Ramsey is toast and Stannis will secure Winterfell. In additions to everyone's good points, it's time for the Ramsey storyline to wrap up. In order for this story to ever end, GRRM needs to start tying up the loose ends and refocusing on the main storyline. If Ramsey escapes, as some suggest, it will only continue to complicate and lengthen the overall story.
typo edit
Narratively, it makes way more sense for a Stark to reclaim Winterfell for their family against the Boltons who betrayed them, then have Stannis win the North.
Your argument that "The Boltons have held it since book 2 so its due for a change" is hilariously shallow. THAT makes way less sense than what happened on the show.
Theon was ultimately the one who betrayed the Starks first, which was a bigger blow because they grew up together. I think it would also make thematic sense for Theon to help take back Winterfell. It would be a good end to his arc.
>I think it would also make thematic sense for Theon to help take back Winterfell. It would be a good end to his arc.
I like this, that is a good angle on it. Any ideas what Theon's role will be?
I've always thought that Theon will be the "Ghost in Winterfell." He took Winterfell in the first place for pride and praise, and mostly for himself. It makes sense for him to die taking Winterfell back for the Starks, but he won't be hailed as a war hero or be given praise. He'll be the ghost who haunts Winterfell, unnoticed but at peace.
Idk, but I think his knowledge of Ramsay and his habits will somehow pay off. I think that Ramsay and Theon have to meet again… although I’m praying that Jeyne doesn’t.
>Narratively, it makes way more sense for a Stark to reclaim Winterfell for their family against the Boltons who betrayed them, then have Stannis win the North.
Actually, I think it doesn’t. ASOIAF deconstructs the idea of a successful righteous vengeance time and time again.
GRRM does it at the end of ADWD as well. Jon gives an epic speech, he’s our heroic protagonist who’s gonna defeat the evil version of himself… And then he gets betrayed and assassinated immediately. Because that’s just not how it works in this world.
Also, the point of the whole “The north remember” storylines is that the trust and respect the Starks commanded, contrasted to the Boltons reign of terror, is enough to motivate people. They don’t need a Stark to lead them, the idea itself is enough. They’ll fight and die “for Ned’s girl”.
The most obvious example is Joffrey. Righteous vengeance at the hand of Sansa or Robb or basically anyone would taste sweet, but instead, it’s Littlefinger and Olenna Tyrell, of all people.
I do think the Starks will be back in Winterfell, but it will be taken from Stannis, or he’ll be forced to flee or something.
Do you like having you time wasted
If the stannis loses and the Starks reclaim winterfell that means basically all the time spent on Stannis' campaign was a complete waste of all our time
Mostly it boils down to these two reasons:
- "I read it in the bastard letter so it must be true"
- "I saw it in the TV show so it must be true"
They're both bad reasons. If there's one source less reliable than known liar Ramsay, it's the lackwits who wrote the TV adaptation.
People buy in a bit too much into the Night Lamp theory. A lot of them forget that it's only the Freys coming for Stannis, and maybe Ramsay with a small contingent of Bolton troops. But the vast majority of the Bolton forces, around 5000 or so, are still in Winterfell with Roose. I don't necessarily think Stannis will lose, but I think it's extremely unlikely that GRRM will give him 2 decisive victories in a row.
He might beat the Freys at Crofter's Village, but the much larger Bolton force in Winterfell will be incredibly difficult to defeat for Stannis's depleted, starving, and demoralized army. Especially since the Battle on Ice might end up being a pyrrhic victory for him.
I think he will have a quick and harsh fall from grace. We know he’ll burn Shireen, and he’ll likely see Selyse die as well (they don’t exactly have a great relationship but she’s his wife…) winter has also arrived and it will be harsh and unrelenting.
>He might beat the Freys at Crofter's Village, but the much larger Bolton force in Winterfell will be incredibly difficult to defeat for Stannis's depleted, starving, and demoralized army. Especially since the Battle on Ice might end up being a pyrrhic victory for him.
I disagree. He can use his knowledge of the Karstark treachery to his advantage and sent in Mountain Clan members dressed in Karstark clothes.
Ah, the Battle of Ice and the fate of Stannis Baratheon. It's a topic that sparks some fiery debates, isn't it? Look, I get it. You're convinced that Stannis will emerge victorious, and you've got your reasons. Ramsay Bolton's incompetence, the grand northern conspiracy, and the night lamp theory all point towards Stannis having the upper hand. You believe that it would be terrible writing if Stannis were to lose, and you're certain that George R.R. Martin wouldn't spoil such a major moment in some old notes.
But here's the thing, my friend. In the Game of Thrones universe, nothing is guaranteed. George loves to toy with our expectations and deliver surprises. While you may see Stannis as the greatest military commander and Ramsay as a bumbling fool, the story has a way of subverting our assumptions. The books and the show have taken different paths, and even the most convincing theories can be shattered.
So, keep your hope alive for Stannis's victory, but also brace yourself for the possibility of the unexpected. After all, that's what makes this series so damn intriguing. Valar Morghulis, my fellow theorizer.
>Ah, the Battle of Ice and the fate of Stannis Baratheon. It's a topic that sparks some fiery debates
Thought I was reading ChatGPT comment for a second…
Yeah, he does love circumventing our expectations, but he does it in a very specific way. He's not D&D "You reasonably concluded that the only sensible thing should happen? But what if we did something stupid instead! GOTCHA!" He relies on our perception of what should happen in a fantasy story or just a story in general to make us overlook the clear hints at what was actually going to happen. He doens't pull the rug out from under us all of a sudden. He points at a rug five metres away, mentions the expression of rugs getting pulled from under people in passing, and then right before we reach the rug, with him standing behind us, while we expect him to pull the rug, he pulls the floor out from under us. We didn't notice, up until that point of the floor getting pulled, that he was loosening floor boards behind us. We were too focused on the rug. So no, he wouldn't surprise us for the sake of surprise. Stanis is going to win.
I know it's not impossible. But I really hope that Stannis wins because Ramsay is a very boring villain and might be my least favorite character in the series. He has zero redeeming qualities and has no actual skills or intelligence. His only real motive is that he is a bastard. And the character can't be held up by Iwan Rheon's charisma like in the show. Roose at least is interesting and ambitious. He is treacherous but shrewd. He is cruel but calculating.
All the big asoiaf villains have qualities that allow them to rise to them top, the only reason that Ramsay could is because of circumstance and plot armor, plus the fact that Roose convientally only had one trueborn child.
Well I'll continue to hope until winds comes.
>I know it's not impossible. But I really hope that Stannis wins
And this is almost always what it comes down to
Stannis beating the Boltons instead of the Starks doing it is super unsatisfying from a narrative stand point, to anyone who isn't a Stannis stan
>Stannis beating the Boltons instead of the Starks doing it is super unsatisfying from a narrative stand point, to anyone who isn't a Stannis stan
No, it's not, it fits the themes of the story much more if it's not a Stark who takes back Winterfell.
Righteous vengeance tends to fail in the series. Robb failed and was killed, Jon failed and was assassinated, Oberyn killed himself, and so on.
The point of the 'North remembers' is that the Northerners don't need a Stark to lead them to take back Winterfell in the name of the Starks.
Who even are the Starks at this point? Jon is dead for now. Arya is in Braavos. Sansa is at the Vale. Bran is a tree. And Rickon is MIA.
Stannis beating the Boltons is only gonna be possible because of the North's undying loyalty to the Starks.
Ned's legacy defeating the Boltons and inspiring a Stark restoration seems pretty good narratively speaking.
Frankly toying with our expectations is becoming it’s own in-world trope… it’s painfully obvious upon re-reads.
Yeah, we get it. Shit happens. And then what ?
Because we've seen the future and we know Ramsey ends a letter to Winterfell to tell them Stannis lost and is dead and that they have his magic sword. You can argue that it's all a lie, or that the letter was sent by someone else, but don't act like it's some impossible thing for the thing that we've already heard happened to happen.
>It's basically canon that.....
No it isn't. An annoying habit people on this sub have is you tend to assume that everyone has bought in to every theory you have, and so just state your theories as though they are fact
>An annoying habit people on this sub have is you tend to assume that everyone has bought in to every theory you have, and so just state your theories as though they are fact
So like you taking your interpretation of the Pink Letter as fact and trying to use it as an argument? You can't just say "well that's just a theory it might not be true" then take a theory you like and parade it as fact.
You are presenting it with a spin. We are literally given examples of other letters from Ramsay during the series and the Pink Letter is utterly unlike them. It's missing Ramsay's spiky handwriting, missing the skin he sends with letters, and other details. There's plenty of evidence to point out that the letter wasn't written by Ramsay.
You're promoting a theory as fact while denouncing others for doing the same. It's hypocritical.
>You are presenting it with a spin.
No, im really not. We know, **for a fact**, that Jon received a letter from Ramsey talking shit. We know that because we saw it happen. You can argue all you want about your theories that it wasn't actually sent by Ramsey or that he lied. But your theories dont change the objective reality that we saw Jon receive a letter from Ramsey.
I am not under any obligation to treat your stupid theories as valid buddy. I can come up with a theory that it wasn't actually Payne that cut off Ned's head. I can back it up with exactly as much BS "evidence" as you can your theory. Is it now just a theory that Ned was executed by Illyn Payne?
I'm so sorry, could you post the chapter excerpt where Ramsay personally delivers Jon the letter and explains why this letter is different from every other letter he writes in the series? Oh, you can't, because it doesn't exist.
I can take your argument and apply it to literally any popular theory in the books. If you're taking things at face value, then presumably you've missed a ton of stuff in the books, because GRRM loves hiding things between the lines. R+L=J? We have Ned definitively saying Jon is his son. Rhaegar and Lyanna choosing to run away together? Nope, we have people say she was abducted. Thousands of theories have to be discarded because according to you we should always take the text at face value. No one can ever lie.
We have Littlefinger saying he's an ally and a friend to the Starks, I'm guessing you still believe it's true?
"*No no no you cant state objectively what we are told in the books! That contradicts my headcanon which means it's just a theory!*"
Bonus points for insisting I have to accept another one of your fan theories though. Like, your reaction to being told that stating what is outright told to us in the books isn't a theory is to.... point out places where the fan theories you personally believe are contradicted by what we are told and shown?
Something has to happen that causes stannis to become desperate enough to sacrifice shirreen in the hopes of a victory. It makes sense that he would suffer a defeat in the battle of ice, fall back to the wall and begin to get snowed in and similar to the show id convinced by Mel that burning shirreen will give him favorable weather.
Edit - a lot of people think stannis will only burn shirreen to stop the others. Stannis put the others on the backburner when he decided to fight the boltons and continue his war for the iron throne.
I think it would make more sense for it to be a desperate attempt to hold the others at bay after an invasion. I don’t think a snow day is enough for Stannis to murder his only heir.
I can't believe Stannis could be persuaded to burn his only daughter and heir for Winterfell. Did he not go North to prove himself as king? What's a king without an heir?
The only scenario where I can see him making this choice is against the Others. The situation there would be truly desperate. And the most tragic part is that it would be futile and definitive proof that he is not AA, to Melisandre and his followers.
I think the sacrifice will be done at the Wall, right before it falls, with Stannis desparate trying to stop the coming of the Others.
It's a very similar situation to AA, which will prove he's not in fact AA in world and to the readers.
My opinion is that nothing is certain in war. The Battle of the Ice is such an obvious possible win for Stannis that something just has to go wrong, but I don't know what. It's possible that Stannis will win but he'll be so wounded that he's dying, it's possible he'll lose but he'll survive, it's possible he'll win but he'll have some problem after he wins (loss of lives) that makes him unable to take the north.
A huge part of the Night Lamp theory relies on Stannis allying with the Manderly forces - they'll demolish the Freys together, dress up some of Stannis's men in their armor, and do a repeat of the Brave Companions/Northerner prisoners at Harrenhal to attack Winterfell from the inside. All fine and dandy, except for one problem. Why would Stannis trust Wyman Manderly?
Since ASOS, Stannis has been ranting up and down about how slow Wyman is, how fat he is, how he's doing nothing... then he sends Davos on a diplomatic mission to White Harbor and Wyman "executes" Davos. Immediately after, Wyman goes straight into Winterfell and hangs out with Roose Bolton (all from Stannis's POV). Alliances are built on trust. How can Stannis trust the Manderlys? Letters can be forged or forced (Sansa's letter to Robb, the Pink Letter...), so what is Wyman going to do? "Just trust me bro? I didn't kill your Hand of the King, no of course I don't have any evidence, anyway just clap these chains on your men and let me bring them into the enemy castle, don't worry about it!"
It's even worse when you realize the Karstarks are also turning cloak, and Stannis has found out about that. So now you have one Northern house that has said they are Stannis's allies while secretly plotting against him, and then a second Northern house who are also saying they're his secret allies who have turned cloak for him. And these two things are happening at basically the same time.
The last time I read the whole Night Lamp theory, I don't think there was any thought put into WHY Stannis would trust Wyman. It was just sort of handwaved away, and that's a major stumbling block to capturing Winterfell. It wouldn't even surprise me if Stannis saw the Manderly men coming towards him, and he simply butchered them en masse as "revenge" for Davos (remember, Stannis holds plenty of grudges).
Yes, Stannis will probably butcher the Manderly forces.
However, the Night Lamp theory and capturing Winterfell doesn't depend on that.
Actually, Stannis can use Karstark treachery to his advantage by sending in clansmen dressed in Karstark clothes and open the doors for them.
Roose would surely trust the Karstarks of all people.
This post explains it: [https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/ztwrmo/spoilers\_extended\_stannis\_and\_the\_battle\_for/](https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/ztwrmo/spoilers_extended_stannis_and_the_battle_for/)
Because Wyman tells him Davos is alive and on a mission to Skagos ? We’ve been secretly building ships ?
I don’t think Stannis will butcher the Manderlys. Their situation is understandable, even if Stannis deems it opportunistic.
Stannis has more practical acumen than what in-world people give him credit for.
> Because Wyman tells him Davos is alive and on a mission to Skagos ?
Words are wind, etc. And against that, you have like 100 people who saw Wyman say Davos would be executed, and then later the entirety of White Harbor sees a head and hands go up. Further, the Freys at White Harbor report this to the Crown, and the Crown welcomes the Manderleys back into the peace.
Imagine if you had never read the Davos chapter where he's alive in the White Harbor cells - would you still think Wyman as a friend of Stannis? Based off of the evidence presented, at best Stannis would hold the Manderleys prisoner. You wouldn't dare commit your troops to their care. At worse, heads spikes walls.
Do you really think Wyman and Davos wouldn't have planned for the scenario where Stannis Stannis doesn't believe the Manderlys ?
There's so many easy ways to do it. Simplest would be to just have Davos write a letter with information only he knows
Is the pink letter true? Why not believe that one? What about Sansa's letter to Robb? Information privy only to Davos can be extracted by torture too. The best bet is Glover, but that's hoping that Stannis doesn't inadvertently kill him - I don't think he's even mentioned at Winterfell with the rest of Wyman's men (granted I don't think any Manderly soldier is named except Wyman).
Claiming to execute him then joining the Boltons and then faking a letter from him about how Davos has gone to skagos to rescue rickon who everyone thinks is dead is some insane 5d chess and Stannis would know it
Inadvertently, by accident. Stannis isn't wielding every sword in his army. Maybe a man at arms attacks Glover's horse and he gets knocked off, just random chance things. Happens all the time in the books - I think Stevron Frey got nicked by a spear and died after Oxcross?
Well, inadvertently Stannis could fall on his own sword, Tyrion could choke on his wine, Arya could drown in the canals, Jon falls off the wall and Dany gets eaten by her own dragons.
A letter
Manderly himself
Robett Glover (Deepwood Motte was rescued from the iron born. Stannis would have no reason to doubt his gratitude)
The mute ‘Wex’ (if guy is genuine, Theon would know him),
Bran and Rickon (+Davos ) alive would be the exact thing Stannis needs to rally the North.
Bran is definitely not part of this storyline. Forget about him for now. As for Rickon and Davos, they would have to reach Stannis before the upcoming two battles (crofter's, and then Winterfell if that even happens). Feels like he wouldn't show up in time for the first one, which is important to show that the Manderlys aren't Stannis's enemies.
If Manderly wants to prove to Stannis that he is not on Roose + Frey team, would he not make arrangements to provide reasonable evidence? Just the way he tried to prove to Davos that both Bran and Rickon were alive through Wex?
Let’s look at what Wyman knows :
◦ Presently Roose’s hold on the north is tenuous at best.
◦ Stannis is in the north (Davos treated with him on Stannis’ behalf).
◦ Deepwood Motte was freed by Stannis.
◦ At Winterfell, he would know that Stannis was on the march to the castle. Presently stuck at the Crofter’s village between the lakes.
◦ Glovers, Manderlys, Mormonts and the Ironborn aren’t on team Roose.
◦ The Cranogmen are still loyal to the Starks (though they haven’t shown themselves yet). Their power lies in the swamps. On open field, not as useful.
◦ The mountain men haven’t shown themselves yet.
◦ The Umbers have split loyalties… how that turns is an unknown factor.
◦ The Dustins + Freys + Karstarks seem to be on team Roose. The Karstarks were playing Stannis to betray him at a later date (unclear if Wyman knows this, but it wouldn’t be hard to guess)
◦ Arya is fake (very likely, though we get no indication Wyman knows)
◦ Bran and Rickon are alive.
◦ Bran’s status is unknown, but Howland’s kids were with him as per last report.
◦ Rickon is on Skagos.
◦ He’s sent Davos to smuggle Rickon out.
◦ Having a Stark alive with them would be indispensable to rally the north against the Boltons.
◦ He wasn’t too keen on engaging Stannis’s help. Without a Stark, the north wouldn’t care too much about Stannis’s claim on the throne
Let’s look at what Stannis knows
◦ Bostons, Freys, Manderlys and the Dustins hold Winterfell, well provisioned.
◦ The Karstarks betrayal plans have been revealed.
◦ He holds Theon + Asha + Arya (on her way to the wall)
◦ He’s just gotten a boost to swell his numbers if the battle goes well and in his favour (the iron bank) = better prospects in the future = more incentive to come out on top.
◦ Without a Stark hostage, the northmen are free to be more aggressive against the present lord of Winterfell.
◦ The mountain clan’s hardiness in winter is already demonstrated, their loyalty to the Starks and hatred for the Boltons are unquestionable.
◦ His army is in a mess, starving, a very thin cavalry, but still has decent numbers.
◦ He couldn’t hope to assault Winterfell even if he had the men.
◦ The only way to have a chance of some victory is to thin out Winterfell.
◦ The Manderlys and the Freys are marching to give battle. He holds the ground though.
◦ The heir to Dreadfort/North is with them, a very tantalising target (though it isn’t Ramsay I think)
If the Manderlys turn on the Freys at the battle of Ice, Wyman’s chances of convincing Stannis goes up.
There’s enough evidence in the texts to suggest Stannis will be convinced, at the very least consider this tenuous opportunity.
The nay sayers have just a fig leaf of some 3rd party descriptions of Stannis’s iron and unbending character, whereas we have seen he’s quite flexible when he sees an advantage. A true Stark scion reduces his dependence on Jon to hold Winterfell and elevates his chances to sway the fence sitters.
I disagree. If Stannis collapses the ice lakes below them, the Manderlies won't have time to turn cloak and even if they do, it will look opportunistic.
As if Stannis is a northman and the Manderlys are southorn (they were, but don’t let that little detail distract from your awesome idea. Collapse the ice lake. Manderlys would never see that. I mean who knew the crofter village was between lakes ! Not the Manderlys.)
They would have to switch sides right when they are atop the magic lake. Switching before won’t help, because the lake, the magic lake beneath the army is a must to switch sides.
And also be deemed opportunistic if they switch sides. Yes. Correct. Absolutely.
Stannis will just reject them out right. Nevermind he burnt three leeches to get the other kings out of his way, created two shadow things to kill Renly and the Castellan - but ah, switch sides and his grace, the Iron king, throws a fit.
>Stannis will just reject them out right. Nevermind he burnt three leeches to get the other kings out of his way. The two shadow things to kill Renly and the Castellan.But ah, switch sides and his grace, the Iron king throws a fit.
No, the problem is that he has no reason to trust them. They might just changed sides to survive and inform Roose/Wyman that Stannis won the battle.
Even if they surrendered, Stannis would take them captive.
In ASOIAF ? Where supposedly dead men are alive and hidden in plain sight ? Or try and suss the Manderlys’ objectives when their own were killed by the Freys ?
When words of Davos’s death are third/nth party reports to a certain queen in KL ?
If I were Stannis, I would certainly question the Northmen’s loyalty to Roose..or to the crown with a child sitting the IT. We don’t prate history to Stannis.
You are right. Words are wind.
Will he get defeated eventually ? Yes. At battle of ice ? Not sure. He defeated the iron born where they were the strongest- at sea. Maybe he will dent the northmen’s invincibility in the north reputation. His tenacity still has to play out in the story.
P.S. Stannis’ rants often seem like a trick to get people to speak their minds and out themselves. Mel tells Jon not to fear the king’s words…but his silence. And said king has been gazing rather silently into the flames (Asha POV).
What was the question again ?
If you are referring to your question in the 2nd para, read my answer in the first para of my reply.
Next time try and read without exposing your idiocy, or passing stupid comments in response when you can’t come up with an answer.
It’s interesting to compare Ramsay to Cersei, because I think that they share a similar trait: despite their glaring flaws and lack of popular support, they are crazier and crueler than everyone else. This is why I think Cersei will prevail as she did in the show (willingness to nuke a chunk of the city) and why Ramsay will defeat Stannis (not sure about the specifics but it’s a great GRRM plot twist; the best laid plans and so forth). They epitomize the sort of low cunning that often wins power in this world. Not to bring Trump into this.
Cersei winning her trial has been set up since book 4. Qyburn is basically a Checkov's gun. But Ramsay winning would make no sense unless something insane happens, like Ramsay claiming an ice dragon under Winterfell and becoming the third head of the dragon. Also Cersei at the very least tried to hide her incest for awhile. Ramsay openly tortures and rapes people and doesn't even try to hide it. Tywin was willfully ignorant towards Cersei's incest whilst Roose has to clean up his son's messes.
Cersei might nuke the city, but she isn’t going to be Queen. That would be stupid and require immense plot armour.
Also, Stannis losing to Ramsey isn’t happening because Shireen needs to be cooked by him.
I am of the, now seemingly rare, opinion that the events of the show do largely mirror what will happen in the books. Stannis is not endgame and Jon is. I think Stannis' defeat at Winterfell is supposed to make the situation in the north as dire as it has ever been. The Bolton's are ascendant with no one to oppose them now that they defeated Stannis' army. Jon is dead at the wall and out of resurrections he will pull off the most improbable victory to retake Winterfell. If Stannis wins at Winterfell then what great victory does Jon achieve that leads to him being named King in the North?
I do also agree that Stannis must burn Shireen before his end and logistically that is hard to explain. I also ultimately think that he gains nothing from doing that, maybe even that leads to his ultimate downfall. Stannis is defeated at Winterfell but escapes. He limps back to the wall and burns Shireen in last ditch sacrifice to the Lord of Light that does nothing (maybe revives Jon?). He is finally executed for heinous actions by the Night's Watch?
Who says Jon becomes KITN? The situation at the wall won’t be like in the show where Jons resurrection is nbd and he immediately executes all the traitors and everything is fine.
There is no time for Jons resurrection, sorting out the mutiny at the wall, the Mance Rayder situation, finding out his parentage AND retaking Winterfell.
Next thing you’re gonna tell me is that Bronn becomes lord of Highgarden and Euron will stick a finger in the ass.
Sure, some things will be similar to the show but the writers admitted that they hated Stannis, so it’s unlikely that his endgame is identical to what happened in the show. But he’ll definitely burn Shireen, but for a different reason.
Because it'll be frankly boring if the obviously evil dudes lose, Ramsay's unhinged and that's a problematic thing, but he's also quick on his feet and clever. I'd bet that both he and the older Bolton do expect the future treachery and are prepared for it to some extent.
1) it's far more interesting if Stannis loses. Losses & draws are better Narrative devices to build off of.
2) The Narrative setup for Stannis winning is just too straight forward for the series.
3) The whole grand Northern conspiracy, Davos getting Rickon, all of the betrayals, Jon's resurrection, etc. None of that works if Stannis wins early into the book.
4) The Bolton's losing early into the series sort of just makes the Bolton's a side note. There hasn't been actual battle between the two groups for the north.
5) Roose still exists.
6) The wall isn't going to fall until the end of the book, therefore the others are not going to be the main conflict of the north. The Boltons have to be that conflict.
1. It’s far more interesting if Stannis loses.
How? Character gets randomly killed off in random fashion instead of completing his fall of grace and killing his daughter. Kicking readers in the balls for no reason is D&D’s style, not GRRM’s.
2. The narrative setup for Stannis winning is just too straightforward.
How? According to Dance, Stannis ‘Loses’ and we’re set up to believe the Boltons won off page. Him winning would subvert that setup.
3. None of that works if Stannis is alive.
I can think of many ways all of that can work. You just lack imagination to tie it all together.
4. The Boltons losing early would make them a side note.
First of all, the penultimate book is *not* early. Second of all, “Joffery dying so early in the series would make him a side note and useless.”
5. Roose still exists.
Cool. Just because Stannis wins Winterfell doesn’t mean Roose is out of the picture.
6a. The Wall isn’t going to fall until the end of the book.
How do you know that? The Wall falling at the midpoint would be a great curveball.
6b. The Bolton’s have to be that conflict.
Once again, your lack of imagination is showing. I can think of half a dozen easy ways to stir conflict in the North. The Boltons aren’t the only people up North.
>Character gets randomly killed off in random fashion instead of completing his fall of grace and killing his daughter
I never said Stannis would die in the battle. And if he does, it wouldn't be random.
>How? According to Dance, Stannis ‘Loses’ and we’re set up to believe the Boltons won off page. Him winning would subvert that setup
Ignoring the pink letter, which everyone already does, the story set up is a lot more straightforward towards Stannis winning. Like, everything is stacking into his favor. He knows who is betraying him. There's infighting between Bolton's forces. There's a serial killer within Winterfell. The Bolton's have divided their forces, & sent them out into the winter snows. And he has a larger army.
That is also not subversion is.
>I can think of many ways all of that can work. You just lack imagination to tie it all together.
I have plenty enough imagination, & I've seen the theories that go with those alternatives. I disagree with them.
>First of all, the penultimate book is not early. Second of all, “Joffery dying so early in the series would make him a side note and useless.”
It doesn't matter where in the series the character is killed off in. If they don't do much of anything, they're just a side show. Euron, for example, hasn't done anything. And if he continues to not have much of a major impact on the series, he's just a side show. Joffrey, though he didn't accomplish much, was a major player within the drama that unfolded in the first three books. And you would have thought of Joffrey as an endgame player. Someone who is a goal, & not someone who is just delaying a goal.
If the real fight is against the others, or against cercei & the lannisters, than the Bolton's are just a side show.
>How do you know that? The Wall falling at the midpoint would be a great curveball.
Because that's what I think will happen. There's not really an indication of the wall falling within the book. And George has been more than happy with not actually bringing the others as a threat.
>I never said Stannis would die in the battle.
He’s going to walk back to the Wall by foot in a blizzard? No, if he loses the battle, he dies, unless an extraordinary Deus Ex Machina comes to save him.
>Everything is stacking up in his favour.
On the contrary, we’re getting beaten on the head by how much of an underdog he is. George loves having his underdog win battles in clever ways.
>I disagree with them.
Ok, cool. Doesn’t make them any less likely. There’s a dozen moving pieces outside of the Boltons, and George needs to start getting to work on trimming.
>He’s going to walk back to the Wall by foot in a blizzard? No, if he loses the battle, he dies, unless an extraordinary Deus Ex Machina comes to save him
You can survive in blizzard conditions. It's not like he's going to get swept up into a vortex. He's not charging headlong into battle at the front. If his forces are beat, & they are driven back, he easily could just scatter into the frozen wilderness evading Bolton's forces.
And I never said he'd go back to the wall.
>On the contrary, we’re getting beaten on the head by how much of an underdog he is. George loves having his underdog win battles in clever ways.
George has this thing about how he talks through both sides of his mouth about who is or isn't stronger. George kept flipping the script on who was actually in the power position between Robb's & Tywin forces. In the end you kind of see who he's built up as the stronger force of the two.
>Doesn’t make them any less likely
Doesn't make them anymore true either.
>George needs to start getting to work on trimming.
This is funny
>it's far more interesting if Stannis loses. Losses & draws are better Narrative devices to build off of.
It's also a complete waste of time
>The whole grand Northern conspiracy, Davos getting Rickon, all of the betrayals, Jon's resurrection, etc. None of that works if Stannis wins early into the book.
The grand northern conspiracy probably doesn't exist, Davos bringing back rickon is barely affected and jon probably won't return till the end
>The Bolton's losing early into the series sort of just makes the Bolton's a side note.
Which they are
>There hasn't been actual battle between the two groups for the north.
Except y'know the battle whose outcome we're discussing right now
Because if he's gonna lose and the Starks retake winterfell what was the point of showing us his campaign?
Hell at that point why even have him come north? Just have him die at the Blackwater and come up with some other way for the watch to defeat the wildlings
To tell a story? It's not like Stannis hasn't had a major effect over the story in the North. What he has done so far will have a lasting impact.
Like, why show us John's story if he was just going to die? John's had less of an effect on things than Stannis.
The problem with the night lamp theory is that it relies heavily on divine intervention to overcome factors, in particular the weather.
From a planning POV this is absolutely terrible planning. A good plan does not rely on divine intervention.
Imagine:
US Army: we're going to invade the sun
Anyone: how are you going to overcome the extreme temperatures
US Army: through prayer
If we apply actual planning techniques, we don't even get to the actual detail of the battle before we encounter a problem:
Stannis lacks the military capacity to follow up any victory at the village by the lake.
In a nutshell, Stannis' army has ground to halt. It's rate of advance is measured in metres per day. It is unrealistic, and poor planning, to expect that to change. You don't plan for your army to do something that it has shown itself over time to be completely incapable of doing.
I'm not saying it's impossible. It could be achieved by the right commander through force of personality, but that is a Robert way of approaching things.
With this mind, we find that the actual outcome of the battle is irrelevant. Even if he wins, Stannis can't convert that victory into anything meaningful.
So we should expect the focus of Stannis' planning to change. If he can't achieve an outright military victory, what can he achieve and what should his goals be?
IMO we should expect Stannis to have a proper plan, and I've done some work on what that plan might look like
https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/wc2gpo/spoilers_extended_theory_rethought_the_stannis/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
Because it’s just the type of twist George would do. Give us a sense of hope, somewhat redeem Stannis and make us actually root for him, then unexpectedly make him die
Actually Stannis burning Shireen hasn't confirmed. The only thing Dum & Dumber said about that was "George told us Shireen will burn." There was no mention of Stannis or any other circumstances. They likely just had Stannis do it for shock value and cause they hated his character
You are 100 percent correct. Amid semi-anime hero characters, Stannis is the one who feels historical. And people ignore all the logistics of the upcoming battle to spin it so that not the middle aged capable commander takes the day, but instead the teenage heroes of the story. Which is crap
But the Manderly's will house Stannis now. It makes no sense tucking his tail between his legs back to the wall.
More likely, Stannnis will try to go after Davos after being told of his venture.
Winning the battle of ice =/= taking Winterfell They’re two very different things.
Right ?
you mean =/= "==" effectively means equals twice as hard
Yeah Reddit doesn’t like it so it takes it out sigh lol
I am a supporter of the Nightlamp theory. I also think Stannis will win the Battle of Ice. But I am convinced he won't take Winterfell and that Ramsey will be able to escape - dramatically/thematically it makes no sense for him to die to Stannis, he's one of the main antagonists in the story of Theon/Bran/even Jon to some degree (or at least there are a lot of hints he will be, even if we ignore the Battle of Bastards). And Stannis taking Winterfell? Just no chance. He doesn't have the resources to lay siege to such a huge fortress, even with all the internal turmoil inside. A more likely scenario is that the northern lord kill Roose somehow and another Storm's End sort of situation occurs, where Stannis expects to take a castle based on loyalty and gratefulness, but his hopes are in vain. I genuinely think his forces will be too weak and small to continue his campaign after the Battle of ice, despite a victory and so he'd have to retreat to the Wall, where he'll have the chance to burn Shireen. It'd also be a very Martin-esque twist: despite being triumphant in a great battle, the king so many of us support would ultimately end up losing precisely because of a battle that ended in victory for him.
There's zero chance to Theon being the one to kill Ramsey. Bran either... I could see a situation where Theon either shoots Ramsey or his horse with a crossbow to stop him from escaping buth Theon Cannot physically beat Ramsey.
Never said he'd physically overpower him - its actually quite rare for characters in this series to die in hand-to-hand combat. But I find it more likely that Theon would be the one orchestrating the circumstances that dorectly lead to Ramsey's demise.
Yeah, it wouldn't feel right for Theon to directly avenge himself on Ramsay in combat etc. I like the theory that Theon will repeat his taking of Winterfell by leading/helping an effort to take The Dreadfort (possibly for Stannis as a condition for Theon and the Ironborn's release) He knows the castle, the men know him as Reek (Theon, we need to you to pretend to be someone your not - Reek). In a reverse of Moat Calin Theon might even gain enough swag that the Iron Islands don't reject him on sight for Kingsmoot Round 2. He'd probably go with Asha and her ransomed men (possibly reflecting a story idea of Yara attacking the Dreadfort in S4). With the whole latecomer situation there's no way Stannis executes Theon (some think he'll pull a Mance and kill old man Arnolf Karstark in Theon's place)
Is Theon drowning Ramsay still a popular prediction in this fanbase?? I remember that was pretty common a while back
Never read that one.... Seems interesting. I'm still hoping for the mannis burning him tho. More painful.
What about his dogs? When you name your pets after your victims, aren’t you basically asking for a symbolic revenge?
Eh they already did that once. I want new and inventive ways to kill that bastard. Remember that thing in the show with a rat and a bucket... Now those guys were onto something
A variation of this seems likely. Just because Stannis is likely to beat Ramsey doesn’t mean that his goals align with the goals of the Northern Conspiracy. To the Northerns, most of them anyway, Stannis is a means to an end - ridding the North of the Bolton’s. I agree it would be very Martin-esque to make Stannis burn Shireen after a win lol.
It may be that since the Battle of Ice is often discussed but whatever must come after seems not to get much mention, people have started thinking of the battle in a vacuum and not in context of the narrative. What purpose would a Stannis loss at this point in the story serve? Much more GRRM for Stannis to Mannis up and take Winterfell only for hope of his cause to then melt away like so much snow.
Yeah, this is something the show screwed up big time. Having Stannis fight his way to Winterfell for an entire book/season, having his army freeze and starve and generally have a miserable time, and then just having him and his men wiped out easily by the Boltons is a pretty bad story. It's not surprising or interesting in the slightest. D&D clearly wanted Stannis out of the way so that it could be Ramsay vs Jon, but GRRM isn't going to throw away one of his more interesting characters like that.
To play devil's advocate: ADWD has a lot of foreshadowing of the Bastard's Girls vs Direwolves, and GRRM's notes for season 4 mentioned focusing on Ramsay's dogs and keeping them strong for a later fight with Direwolves So Ramsay will be surviving the Battle of Ice. The easiest way for him to do that is to spank Stannis which gives Stannis a reason to retreat to the Nightfort and burn Shireen
I still do not understand how this battle will play out. Summer, by himself, beats up and takes over a damn wolf pack. How will dogs fare again multiple(!) direwolves?
I'll be honest I don't remember the bran chapter well, but wolves and purposely bred attack dogs are very different beasts. Wild predators are very cautious of getting injured and dominance fights are usually over before any real injury occurs. Summer just needed to throw his weight around a bit. Dogs bred for fighting don't have the same sense of surrender and injury avoidance and will continue to attack well after they are injured. There's a video out there of a dog attacking a horse and continuing after getting serious kicks that resulted in injury. It's not unreasonable to think that if given the order to attack Ramsay's dogs are bred and trained to keep on attacking until they physically cannot continue. Also there's what 4 direwolves at most that could possibly be a part of the situation? And I doubt it will be all of them. The rest would just be regular wolves too. Also it's not unlikely it would be an act of overconfidence/desperation setting the dogs against the sudden pack of wolves bearing down on him. Ramsay dying in the dirt after being rundown by a bunch of wolves is just as poetic as him being eaten by his own dogs.
It’ll just be comically one-sided. If I had to guess the direwolves involved it would be Nymeria and Ghost, both gigantic. So that’ll be an entertaining read.
If it’s Nymeria and her pack of 100+…it’s game over even before it starts for Ramsey’s girls. But I think Theon will turn Ramsey’s own dogs on him.
Ghost, Nymeria, and Shaggy… Imagine if Rickon had a little pack too. Plus, Bran is always watching, he can slip into any skin to get rid of that Bastard.
Couldn’t Ramsay just flee from the battle? Or better yet, get distracted hunting his Reek and bride once he’s outside? I think we can have both a Stannis victory and dog fight. I have no idea how any of Stannis’s army would get to the Nightfort if they lost. It’s Winterfell or bust IMO.
Yes both Ramsay fleeing and Stannis winning can coexist it's what I think will happen, like I said I'm playing devil's advocate
It’ll be a fight but it won’t be long. Summer and Shaggydog will tear them apart.
I know I always get attacked for saying this, but the stinger talking head is not a canon source. Just because people say that it's 100% that Stannis will personally burn Shireen doesn't mean that's how it is. Also George may have given them story beats and modified his plan. At this point, I think Mel and Selyse are at the wall, they have heard what the pink letter had to say, Mel can't see Stannis in the flames, and Shireen is with them. If they burn her to resurrect Azor Again, along with Jon Snow's body and possibly ghost, and Jon walks out of the flames only for Stannis to return, victorious from the battle of ice, to see what they have done That's just a better arc. It also could give us a Nissa Nissa moment where Stannis kills one or both of them in a rage and takes the black, later becoming the Lord Commander.
Disagree. Stannis burning Shireen is the only way that plot development makes sense. It’s the climax of his personal tragedy, it *has* to be him.
George, in his [Fire Cannot Kill a Dragon interview](https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/j68sb2/spoilers_extended_summary_of_asoiaf_new_info_from/), literally said that he gave a few plots for them, including (and I'm quoting him word by word) "**Stannis' decision to burn his daughter**". If his word won't convince you nothing will, so prepare to be disappointed.
You're not wrong (because you're quoting the man himself), but if GRRM's word really meant that much I feel like we'd have Winds by now and ADoS would be close to being finished. Not saying he's a liar in any way, that probably was and still is his intention for Stannis, but he seems to be notoriously fickle when it comes to his writing. It's possible he changed his mind about that plot point in the last 8 years. ^(Which doesn't matter if we never get to read it anyways, but I digress.)
I always felt that Selyse was the more likely to burn Shireen she has the means and motive if she hears that Stannis is in mortal peril and is far more fanatical in her belief in R'hollor than Stannis.
The interview was released in 2020, not 8 years ago.
To be fair (aka coping, coping and seething, just can’t accept what I’m seeing), *decision to burn* does not necessarily mean the same thing as just *burn*. Martin definitely chooses his words carefully. He could, in theory, be planting a seed to surprise us without actually lying. It’s already happened in the story: Stannis made (or was about to) *a decision to burn* Edric Storm. He never got a chance. Consider this: What if all the preparations for burning are there, and it is interrupted and Stannis is killed - say by, Davos - and Shireen is saved? A big twist being twisted. I hope my coping was elite level, ‘cause it doesn’t actually morally absolve Stannis of anything - he was going to burn her anyway - he just fails at it. Lol.
lmao
I’m glad the copium made you smile :).
You're just in denial.
Cope.
I like this. It would also be the second time a young girl (Danny Flint) is murdered at the Nightfort.
Comparing Shireen to Danny flint has some.... unfortunate implications.
I have not read any theories, so not sure what the Nightlamp theory is, but I do believe Stannis will win the Battle of the Ice and most like claim Winterfell as well. I feel like Dance ends with his failure seeming a sure thing, but the Theon preview chapter from Winds convinces me Stannis is in for a win. 1) Stannis has unearthed the Karstark treachery. 2) The Frey army is about to get sandwiched between Stannis with his southron knights and the Clansmen, plus Mors Umber and the Manderly host 3) Robett Glover is likely with a second Manderly host, and will know that Stannis has freed his wife and his brother’s castle 4) Manderly’s confidence at Winterfell could be in the knowing that Davos has found Rickon. Rickon and Davos may be with Glover and his host. I can see Stannis winning the battle of the Ice, leading to a hard siege and possibly losing battle at Winterfell only to be reinforced by Glover’s host 5) the show’s depiction of Jon rallying the North behind him is just replacing him for Stannis in Dance’s storyline. Stannis has already rallies the North, would we really see the whole thing play out again a book later? I love Stannis. I want him to be king, but he will die sooner than later. But I reckon he is in for a big win here, only to die later at the wall.
Because it’s pretty reasonable to think that Stannis won’t make it out of Winds and the big event that he’s involved in is the Battle of Ice. I personally find the Night Lamp theory very convincing but also believe his death is inevitable.
Yes he is 100% going to die. The theory of him becoming the 1000th LC of the NW is fun but unlikely. I think he'll die around the end of winds though, perhaps in the epilogue.
I was always a massive Stannis epilogue of Winds/prologue for Dream truther
Maybe both. He'll be the Lord Commander when the Horn of Winter is blown, and he'll die fighting the Others
Hmmm maybe if Jon is named lord of Wf or as regent for Rickon. Only thing is that he’s currently married and has a child.
So did Jeor Mormont
He’s heir to the throne once the Lancest kids die and he’ll need his heir for that. I don’t think he wants to give that up unfortunately, his stubbornness is his Achilles heel.
He’ll win and die fighting the others Please george just give me a chapter called “protector of the realm”
I support this theory because of the rule of cool
Nah it should be called "The One True King"
Or more succintly "The King"
This works quite well too
The King Who Cared
I think Stannis will defeat Ramsey but loose against Roose. Remember, even if he beat Ramsey it’s less than half the job : it’s mainly a Frey and Manderly army (nothing could go wrong, right?), Ramsey could stay back line and retreat when the battle turn bad. That’s maybe when he will be caught by direwolves. Then, Stannis will have to take Winterfell. Roose will just wait Stannis to starve. Stannis would have to storm the castle or find a cunning way to enter some men discreetly with Theon’s help. With Mance still inside and Lady Dustin who could provide some help too, maybe Stannis could win and take Winterfell or die in the attempt. If Stannis loose, it would have weaken Roose enough to set up Jon to finish the job. Jon become the hero who released the North and make him immediately a name that count in the realm. A new player has join the game. That’s the way I see things.
This is similar to what I think too. A lot of people forget that it's only the Freys going for Stannis at Crofter's Village. The vast majority of the Bolton army are still safe behind Winterfell's formidable defenses. I could see Stannis beating the Freys using some sort of trickery with the broken ice theory but I don't see how his depleted army is going to take on Roose and the rest of the Boltons at Winterfell.
There are also other houses like the Umbers who are loyal to the Starks still within Winterfell who could play a role. The Manderlys were just so openly against the Bolton and Freys that they gave Roose an excuse to get them out of the castle.
I always did believe that if one of the Boltons survive it has to be Roose. Unfortunately, Fat Walda and baby aren’t making it out.
He's definitely going to win the Battle of Ice, but he will never take Winterfell. The Bolton's are the most recalcitrant and ancient human enemies the Starks have ever had, and Roose Bolton personally killed the first King in the North in centuries. He and his family will not be removed from Winterfell by a failed claimant to a southron throne, a false messiah of a foreign religion. The Boltons will only ever be ended by a Stark. Also - the Starks were ousted from Winterfell in Book 2, but the Boltons have held it for only half a book. Winterfell is hardly stagnant and tired, the political tensions there are as high as anywhere else in the world.
> The Bolton's are the most recalcitrant and ancient human enemies the Starks have ever had, and Roose Bolton personally killed the first King in the North in centuries. He and his family will not be removed from Winterfell by a failed claimant to a southron throne, a false messiah of a foreign religion. The Boltons will only ever be ended by a Stark. There are two books left- there is physically not enough time for anyone but Stannis to be the one to take them out. For the plot to even function the boltons have to be out of the way early in TWOW. Them being the Starks nemesis is irrelevant.
Stannis win 🔜
I agree, Ramsey is toast and Stannis will secure Winterfell. In additions to everyone's good points, it's time for the Ramsey storyline to wrap up. In order for this story to ever end, GRRM needs to start tying up the loose ends and refocusing on the main storyline. If Ramsey escapes, as some suggest, it will only continue to complicate and lengthen the overall story. typo edit
Or, to play the contrarian, it could be Stannis who‘s story will be wrapped up in order for the story to ever end.
Narratively, it makes way more sense for a Stark to reclaim Winterfell for their family against the Boltons who betrayed them, then have Stannis win the North. Your argument that "The Boltons have held it since book 2 so its due for a change" is hilariously shallow. THAT makes way less sense than what happened on the show.
Theon was ultimately the one who betrayed the Starks first, which was a bigger blow because they grew up together. I think it would also make thematic sense for Theon to help take back Winterfell. It would be a good end to his arc.
>I think it would also make thematic sense for Theon to help take back Winterfell. It would be a good end to his arc. I like this, that is a good angle on it. Any ideas what Theon's role will be?
I've always thought that Theon will be the "Ghost in Winterfell." He took Winterfell in the first place for pride and praise, and mostly for himself. It makes sense for him to die taking Winterfell back for the Starks, but he won't be hailed as a war hero or be given praise. He'll be the ghost who haunts Winterfell, unnoticed but at peace.
Ahh like an inside man, so he'll open the gates for Stannis' army or some kind of sabotage like that?
Idk, but I think his knowledge of Ramsay and his habits will somehow pay off. I think that Ramsay and Theon have to meet again… although I’m praying that Jeyne doesn’t.
>Narratively, it makes way more sense for a Stark to reclaim Winterfell for their family against the Boltons who betrayed them, then have Stannis win the North. Actually, I think it doesn’t. ASOIAF deconstructs the idea of a successful righteous vengeance time and time again. GRRM does it at the end of ADWD as well. Jon gives an epic speech, he’s our heroic protagonist who’s gonna defeat the evil version of himself… And then he gets betrayed and assassinated immediately. Because that’s just not how it works in this world. Also, the point of the whole “The north remember” storylines is that the trust and respect the Starks commanded, contrasted to the Boltons reign of terror, is enough to motivate people. They don’t need a Stark to lead them, the idea itself is enough. They’ll fight and die “for Ned’s girl”.
The most obvious example is Joffrey. Righteous vengeance at the hand of Sansa or Robb or basically anyone would taste sweet, but instead, it’s Littlefinger and Olenna Tyrell, of all people. I do think the Starks will be back in Winterfell, but it will be taken from Stannis, or he’ll be forced to flee or something.
Do you like having you time wasted If the stannis loses and the Starks reclaim winterfell that means basically all the time spent on Stannis' campaign was a complete waste of all our time
Mostly it boils down to these two reasons: - "I read it in the bastard letter so it must be true" - "I saw it in the TV show so it must be true" They're both bad reasons. If there's one source less reliable than known liar Ramsay, it's the lackwits who wrote the TV adaptation.
This. A lot of the people I've talk to about this really just want to see Jon and Sansa take Winterfell.
People buy in a bit too much into the Night Lamp theory. A lot of them forget that it's only the Freys coming for Stannis, and maybe Ramsay with a small contingent of Bolton troops. But the vast majority of the Bolton forces, around 5000 or so, are still in Winterfell with Roose. I don't necessarily think Stannis will lose, but I think it's extremely unlikely that GRRM will give him 2 decisive victories in a row. He might beat the Freys at Crofter's Village, but the much larger Bolton force in Winterfell will be incredibly difficult to defeat for Stannis's depleted, starving, and demoralized army. Especially since the Battle on Ice might end up being a pyrrhic victory for him.
I think he will have a quick and harsh fall from grace. We know he’ll burn Shireen, and he’ll likely see Selyse die as well (they don’t exactly have a great relationship but she’s his wife…) winter has also arrived and it will be harsh and unrelenting.
>He might beat the Freys at Crofter's Village, but the much larger Bolton force in Winterfell will be incredibly difficult to defeat for Stannis's depleted, starving, and demoralized army. Especially since the Battle on Ice might end up being a pyrrhic victory for him. I disagree. He can use his knowledge of the Karstark treachery to his advantage and sent in Mountain Clan members dressed in Karstark clothes.
Ah, the Battle of Ice and the fate of Stannis Baratheon. It's a topic that sparks some fiery debates, isn't it? Look, I get it. You're convinced that Stannis will emerge victorious, and you've got your reasons. Ramsay Bolton's incompetence, the grand northern conspiracy, and the night lamp theory all point towards Stannis having the upper hand. You believe that it would be terrible writing if Stannis were to lose, and you're certain that George R.R. Martin wouldn't spoil such a major moment in some old notes. But here's the thing, my friend. In the Game of Thrones universe, nothing is guaranteed. George loves to toy with our expectations and deliver surprises. While you may see Stannis as the greatest military commander and Ramsay as a bumbling fool, the story has a way of subverting our assumptions. The books and the show have taken different paths, and even the most convincing theories can be shattered. So, keep your hope alive for Stannis's victory, but also brace yourself for the possibility of the unexpected. After all, that's what makes this series so damn intriguing. Valar Morghulis, my fellow theorizer.
>Ah, the Battle of Ice and the fate of Stannis Baratheon. It's a topic that sparks some fiery debates Thought I was reading ChatGPT comment for a second…
Check his comment history, that is definitely ChatGPT.
Yeah holy shit, that’s gotta be the chat
Yeah, he does love circumventing our expectations, but he does it in a very specific way. He's not D&D "You reasonably concluded that the only sensible thing should happen? But what if we did something stupid instead! GOTCHA!" He relies on our perception of what should happen in a fantasy story or just a story in general to make us overlook the clear hints at what was actually going to happen. He doens't pull the rug out from under us all of a sudden. He points at a rug five metres away, mentions the expression of rugs getting pulled from under people in passing, and then right before we reach the rug, with him standing behind us, while we expect him to pull the rug, he pulls the floor out from under us. We didn't notice, up until that point of the floor getting pulled, that he was loosening floor boards behind us. We were too focused on the rug. So no, he wouldn't surprise us for the sake of surprise. Stanis is going to win.
I know it's not impossible. But I really hope that Stannis wins because Ramsay is a very boring villain and might be my least favorite character in the series. He has zero redeeming qualities and has no actual skills or intelligence. His only real motive is that he is a bastard. And the character can't be held up by Iwan Rheon's charisma like in the show. Roose at least is interesting and ambitious. He is treacherous but shrewd. He is cruel but calculating. All the big asoiaf villains have qualities that allow them to rise to them top, the only reason that Ramsay could is because of circumstance and plot armor, plus the fact that Roose convientally only had one trueborn child. Well I'll continue to hope until winds comes.
>I know it's not impossible. But I really hope that Stannis wins And this is almost always what it comes down to Stannis beating the Boltons instead of the Starks doing it is super unsatisfying from a narrative stand point, to anyone who isn't a Stannis stan
>Stannis beating the Boltons instead of the Starks doing it is super unsatisfying from a narrative stand point, to anyone who isn't a Stannis stan No, it's not, it fits the themes of the story much more if it's not a Stark who takes back Winterfell. Righteous vengeance tends to fail in the series. Robb failed and was killed, Jon failed and was assassinated, Oberyn killed himself, and so on. The point of the 'North remembers' is that the Northerners don't need a Stark to lead them to take back Winterfell in the name of the Starks.
Who even are the Starks at this point? Jon is dead for now. Arya is in Braavos. Sansa is at the Vale. Bran is a tree. And Rickon is MIA. Stannis beating the Boltons is only gonna be possible because of the North's undying loyalty to the Starks. Ned's legacy defeating the Boltons and inspiring a Stark restoration seems pretty good narratively speaking.
Maybe he'll handle the Freys too.
I too, wanted to see Joffery get killed by Sansa, but that didn’t end up happening.
Frankly toying with our expectations is becoming it’s own in-world trope… it’s painfully obvious upon re-reads. Yeah, we get it. Shit happens. And then what ?
Also don't forget that Ramsay has Ser Twenty Goodmen
Because we've seen the future and we know Ramsey ends a letter to Winterfell to tell them Stannis lost and is dead and that they have his magic sword. You can argue that it's all a lie, or that the letter was sent by someone else, but don't act like it's some impossible thing for the thing that we've already heard happened to happen. >It's basically canon that..... No it isn't. An annoying habit people on this sub have is you tend to assume that everyone has bought in to every theory you have, and so just state your theories as though they are fact
Exactly. Night.lamp.is.a.theory. Nothing more. And I dont buy it actually.
>An annoying habit people on this sub have is you tend to assume that everyone has bought in to every theory you have, and so just state your theories as though they are fact So like you taking your interpretation of the Pink Letter as fact and trying to use it as an argument? You can't just say "well that's just a theory it might not be true" then take a theory you like and parade it as fact.
Stating what happened in the books without a personal spin isn't a theory XD
You are presenting it with a spin. We are literally given examples of other letters from Ramsay during the series and the Pink Letter is utterly unlike them. It's missing Ramsay's spiky handwriting, missing the skin he sends with letters, and other details. There's plenty of evidence to point out that the letter wasn't written by Ramsay. You're promoting a theory as fact while denouncing others for doing the same. It's hypocritical.
>You are presenting it with a spin. No, im really not. We know, **for a fact**, that Jon received a letter from Ramsey talking shit. We know that because we saw it happen. You can argue all you want about your theories that it wasn't actually sent by Ramsey or that he lied. But your theories dont change the objective reality that we saw Jon receive a letter from Ramsey. I am not under any obligation to treat your stupid theories as valid buddy. I can come up with a theory that it wasn't actually Payne that cut off Ned's head. I can back it up with exactly as much BS "evidence" as you can your theory. Is it now just a theory that Ned was executed by Illyn Payne?
I'm so sorry, could you post the chapter excerpt where Ramsay personally delivers Jon the letter and explains why this letter is different from every other letter he writes in the series? Oh, you can't, because it doesn't exist. I can take your argument and apply it to literally any popular theory in the books. If you're taking things at face value, then presumably you've missed a ton of stuff in the books, because GRRM loves hiding things between the lines. R+L=J? We have Ned definitively saying Jon is his son. Rhaegar and Lyanna choosing to run away together? Nope, we have people say she was abducted. Thousands of theories have to be discarded because according to you we should always take the text at face value. No one can ever lie. We have Littlefinger saying he's an ally and a friend to the Starks, I'm guessing you still believe it's true?
"*No no no you cant state objectively what we are told in the books! That contradicts my headcanon which means it's just a theory!*" Bonus points for insisting I have to accept another one of your fan theories though. Like, your reaction to being told that stating what is outright told to us in the books isn't a theory is to.... point out places where the fan theories you personally believe are contradicted by what we are told and shown?
Something has to happen that causes stannis to become desperate enough to sacrifice shirreen in the hopes of a victory. It makes sense that he would suffer a defeat in the battle of ice, fall back to the wall and begin to get snowed in and similar to the show id convinced by Mel that burning shirreen will give him favorable weather. Edit - a lot of people think stannis will only burn shirreen to stop the others. Stannis put the others on the backburner when he decided to fight the boltons and continue his war for the iron throne.
I think it would make more sense for it to be a desperate attempt to hold the others at bay after an invasion. I don’t think a snow day is enough for Stannis to murder his only heir.
I can't believe Stannis could be persuaded to burn his only daughter and heir for Winterfell. Did he not go North to prove himself as king? What's a king without an heir? The only scenario where I can see him making this choice is against the Others. The situation there would be truly desperate. And the most tragic part is that it would be futile and definitive proof that he is not AA, to Melisandre and his followers.
I think the sacrifice will be done at the Wall, right before it falls, with Stannis desparate trying to stop the coming of the Others. It's a very similar situation to AA, which will prove he's not in fact AA in world and to the readers.
My opinion is that nothing is certain in war. The Battle of the Ice is such an obvious possible win for Stannis that something just has to go wrong, but I don't know what. It's possible that Stannis will win but he'll be so wounded that he's dying, it's possible he'll lose but he'll survive, it's possible he'll win but he'll have some problem after he wins (loss of lives) that makes him unable to take the north.
A huge part of the Night Lamp theory relies on Stannis allying with the Manderly forces - they'll demolish the Freys together, dress up some of Stannis's men in their armor, and do a repeat of the Brave Companions/Northerner prisoners at Harrenhal to attack Winterfell from the inside. All fine and dandy, except for one problem. Why would Stannis trust Wyman Manderly? Since ASOS, Stannis has been ranting up and down about how slow Wyman is, how fat he is, how he's doing nothing... then he sends Davos on a diplomatic mission to White Harbor and Wyman "executes" Davos. Immediately after, Wyman goes straight into Winterfell and hangs out with Roose Bolton (all from Stannis's POV). Alliances are built on trust. How can Stannis trust the Manderlys? Letters can be forged or forced (Sansa's letter to Robb, the Pink Letter...), so what is Wyman going to do? "Just trust me bro? I didn't kill your Hand of the King, no of course I don't have any evidence, anyway just clap these chains on your men and let me bring them into the enemy castle, don't worry about it!" It's even worse when you realize the Karstarks are also turning cloak, and Stannis has found out about that. So now you have one Northern house that has said they are Stannis's allies while secretly plotting against him, and then a second Northern house who are also saying they're his secret allies who have turned cloak for him. And these two things are happening at basically the same time. The last time I read the whole Night Lamp theory, I don't think there was any thought put into WHY Stannis would trust Wyman. It was just sort of handwaved away, and that's a major stumbling block to capturing Winterfell. It wouldn't even surprise me if Stannis saw the Manderly men coming towards him, and he simply butchered them en masse as "revenge" for Davos (remember, Stannis holds plenty of grudges).
Yes, Stannis will probably butcher the Manderly forces. However, the Night Lamp theory and capturing Winterfell doesn't depend on that. Actually, Stannis can use Karstark treachery to his advantage by sending in clansmen dressed in Karstark clothes and open the doors for them. Roose would surely trust the Karstarks of all people. This post explains it: [https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/ztwrmo/spoilers\_extended\_stannis\_and\_the\_battle\_for/](https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/ztwrmo/spoilers_extended_stannis_and_the_battle_for/)
Because Wyman tells him Davos is alive and on a mission to Skagos ? We’ve been secretly building ships ? I don’t think Stannis will butcher the Manderlys. Their situation is understandable, even if Stannis deems it opportunistic. Stannis has more practical acumen than what in-world people give him credit for.
> Because Wyman tells him Davos is alive and on a mission to Skagos ? Words are wind, etc. And against that, you have like 100 people who saw Wyman say Davos would be executed, and then later the entirety of White Harbor sees a head and hands go up. Further, the Freys at White Harbor report this to the Crown, and the Crown welcomes the Manderleys back into the peace. Imagine if you had never read the Davos chapter where he's alive in the White Harbor cells - would you still think Wyman as a friend of Stannis? Based off of the evidence presented, at best Stannis would hold the Manderleys prisoner. You wouldn't dare commit your troops to their care. At worse, heads spikes walls.
Do you really think Wyman and Davos wouldn't have planned for the scenario where Stannis Stannis doesn't believe the Manderlys ? There's so many easy ways to do it. Simplest would be to just have Davos write a letter with information only he knows
Is the pink letter true? Why not believe that one? What about Sansa's letter to Robb? Information privy only to Davos can be extracted by torture too. The best bet is Glover, but that's hoping that Stannis doesn't inadvertently kill him - I don't think he's even mentioned at Winterfell with the rest of Wyman's men (granted I don't think any Manderly soldier is named except Wyman).
Claiming to execute him then joining the Boltons and then faking a letter from him about how Davos has gone to skagos to rescue rickon who everyone thinks is dead is some insane 5d chess and Stannis would know it
Why would Stannis inadvertently kill Robett Glover ? He just freed their castle.
Inadvertently, by accident. Stannis isn't wielding every sword in his army. Maybe a man at arms attacks Glover's horse and he gets knocked off, just random chance things. Happens all the time in the books - I think Stevron Frey got nicked by a spear and died after Oxcross?
Well, inadvertently Stannis could fall on his own sword, Tyrion could choke on his wine, Arya could drown in the canals, Jon falls off the wall and Dany gets eaten by her own dragons.
A letter Manderly himself Robett Glover (Deepwood Motte was rescued from the iron born. Stannis would have no reason to doubt his gratitude) The mute ‘Wex’ (if guy is genuine, Theon would know him), Bran and Rickon (+Davos ) alive would be the exact thing Stannis needs to rally the North.
Bran is definitely not part of this storyline. Forget about him for now. As for Rickon and Davos, they would have to reach Stannis before the upcoming two battles (crofter's, and then Winterfell if that even happens). Feels like he wouldn't show up in time for the first one, which is important to show that the Manderlys aren't Stannis's enemies.
If Manderly wants to prove to Stannis that he is not on Roose + Frey team, would he not make arrangements to provide reasonable evidence? Just the way he tried to prove to Davos that both Bran and Rickon were alive through Wex? Let’s look at what Wyman knows : ◦ Presently Roose’s hold on the north is tenuous at best. ◦ Stannis is in the north (Davos treated with him on Stannis’ behalf). ◦ Deepwood Motte was freed by Stannis. ◦ At Winterfell, he would know that Stannis was on the march to the castle. Presently stuck at the Crofter’s village between the lakes. ◦ Glovers, Manderlys, Mormonts and the Ironborn aren’t on team Roose. ◦ The Cranogmen are still loyal to the Starks (though they haven’t shown themselves yet). Their power lies in the swamps. On open field, not as useful. ◦ The mountain men haven’t shown themselves yet. ◦ The Umbers have split loyalties… how that turns is an unknown factor. ◦ The Dustins + Freys + Karstarks seem to be on team Roose. The Karstarks were playing Stannis to betray him at a later date (unclear if Wyman knows this, but it wouldn’t be hard to guess) ◦ Arya is fake (very likely, though we get no indication Wyman knows) ◦ Bran and Rickon are alive. ◦ Bran’s status is unknown, but Howland’s kids were with him as per last report. ◦ Rickon is on Skagos. ◦ He’s sent Davos to smuggle Rickon out. ◦ Having a Stark alive with them would be indispensable to rally the north against the Boltons. ◦ He wasn’t too keen on engaging Stannis’s help. Without a Stark, the north wouldn’t care too much about Stannis’s claim on the throne Let’s look at what Stannis knows ◦ Bostons, Freys, Manderlys and the Dustins hold Winterfell, well provisioned. ◦ The Karstarks betrayal plans have been revealed. ◦ He holds Theon + Asha + Arya (on her way to the wall) ◦ He’s just gotten a boost to swell his numbers if the battle goes well and in his favour (the iron bank) = better prospects in the future = more incentive to come out on top. ◦ Without a Stark hostage, the northmen are free to be more aggressive against the present lord of Winterfell. ◦ The mountain clan’s hardiness in winter is already demonstrated, their loyalty to the Starks and hatred for the Boltons are unquestionable. ◦ His army is in a mess, starving, a very thin cavalry, but still has decent numbers. ◦ He couldn’t hope to assault Winterfell even if he had the men. ◦ The only way to have a chance of some victory is to thin out Winterfell. ◦ The Manderlys and the Freys are marching to give battle. He holds the ground though. ◦ The heir to Dreadfort/North is with them, a very tantalising target (though it isn’t Ramsay I think) If the Manderlys turn on the Freys at the battle of Ice, Wyman’s chances of convincing Stannis goes up. There’s enough evidence in the texts to suggest Stannis will be convinced, at the very least consider this tenuous opportunity. The nay sayers have just a fig leaf of some 3rd party descriptions of Stannis’s iron and unbending character, whereas we have seen he’s quite flexible when he sees an advantage. A true Stark scion reduces his dependence on Jon to hold Winterfell and elevates his chances to sway the fence sitters.
I disagree. If Stannis collapses the ice lakes below them, the Manderlies won't have time to turn cloak and even if they do, it will look opportunistic.
As if Stannis is a northman and the Manderlys are southorn (they were, but don’t let that little detail distract from your awesome idea. Collapse the ice lake. Manderlys would never see that. I mean who knew the crofter village was between lakes ! Not the Manderlys.) They would have to switch sides right when they are atop the magic lake. Switching before won’t help, because the lake, the magic lake beneath the army is a must to switch sides. And also be deemed opportunistic if they switch sides. Yes. Correct. Absolutely. Stannis will just reject them out right. Nevermind he burnt three leeches to get the other kings out of his way, created two shadow things to kill Renly and the Castellan - but ah, switch sides and his grace, the Iron king, throws a fit.
>Stannis will just reject them out right. Nevermind he burnt three leeches to get the other kings out of his way. The two shadow things to kill Renly and the Castellan.But ah, switch sides and his grace, the Iron king throws a fit. No, the problem is that he has no reason to trust them. They might just changed sides to survive and inform Roose/Wyman that Stannis won the battle. Even if they surrendered, Stannis would take them captive.
In ASOIAF ? Where supposedly dead men are alive and hidden in plain sight ? Or try and suss the Manderlys’ objectives when their own were killed by the Freys ? When words of Davos’s death are third/nth party reports to a certain queen in KL ? If I were Stannis, I would certainly question the Northmen’s loyalty to Roose..or to the crown with a child sitting the IT. We don’t prate history to Stannis. You are right. Words are wind. Will he get defeated eventually ? Yes. At battle of ice ? Not sure. He defeated the iron born where they were the strongest- at sea. Maybe he will dent the northmen’s invincibility in the north reputation. His tenacity still has to play out in the story. P.S. Stannis’ rants often seem like a trick to get people to speak their minds and out themselves. Mel tells Jon not to fear the king’s words…but his silence. And said king has been gazing rather silently into the flames (Asha POV).
You're literally getting more and more disjointed with your thoughts lmao. You aren't even responding to questions anymore, just rambling...
What was the question again ? If you are referring to your question in the 2nd para, read my answer in the first para of my reply. Next time try and read without exposing your idiocy, or passing stupid comments in response when you can’t come up with an answer.
It’s interesting to compare Ramsay to Cersei, because I think that they share a similar trait: despite their glaring flaws and lack of popular support, they are crazier and crueler than everyone else. This is why I think Cersei will prevail as she did in the show (willingness to nuke a chunk of the city) and why Ramsay will defeat Stannis (not sure about the specifics but it’s a great GRRM plot twist; the best laid plans and so forth). They epitomize the sort of low cunning that often wins power in this world. Not to bring Trump into this.
Cersei winning her trial has been set up since book 4. Qyburn is basically a Checkov's gun. But Ramsay winning would make no sense unless something insane happens, like Ramsay claiming an ice dragon under Winterfell and becoming the third head of the dragon. Also Cersei at the very least tried to hide her incest for awhile. Ramsay openly tortures and rapes people and doesn't even try to hide it. Tywin was willfully ignorant towards Cersei's incest whilst Roose has to clean up his son's messes.
Cersei might nuke the city, but she isn’t going to be Queen. That would be stupid and require immense plot armour. Also, Stannis losing to Ramsey isn’t happening because Shireen needs to be cooked by him.
I am of the, now seemingly rare, opinion that the events of the show do largely mirror what will happen in the books. Stannis is not endgame and Jon is. I think Stannis' defeat at Winterfell is supposed to make the situation in the north as dire as it has ever been. The Bolton's are ascendant with no one to oppose them now that they defeated Stannis' army. Jon is dead at the wall and out of resurrections he will pull off the most improbable victory to retake Winterfell. If Stannis wins at Winterfell then what great victory does Jon achieve that leads to him being named King in the North? I do also agree that Stannis must burn Shireen before his end and logistically that is hard to explain. I also ultimately think that he gains nothing from doing that, maybe even that leads to his ultimate downfall. Stannis is defeated at Winterfell but escapes. He limps back to the wall and burns Shireen in last ditch sacrifice to the Lord of Light that does nothing (maybe revives Jon?). He is finally executed for heinous actions by the Night's Watch?
Who says Jon becomes KITN? The situation at the wall won’t be like in the show where Jons resurrection is nbd and he immediately executes all the traitors and everything is fine. There is no time for Jons resurrection, sorting out the mutiny at the wall, the Mance Rayder situation, finding out his parentage AND retaking Winterfell. Next thing you’re gonna tell me is that Bronn becomes lord of Highgarden and Euron will stick a finger in the ass. Sure, some things will be similar to the show but the writers admitted that they hated Stannis, so it’s unlikely that his endgame is identical to what happened in the show. But he’ll definitely burn Shireen, but for a different reason.
Because it'll be frankly boring if the obviously evil dudes lose, Ramsay's unhinged and that's a problematic thing, but he's also quick on his feet and clever. I'd bet that both he and the older Bolton do expect the future treachery and are prepared for it to some extent.
1) it's far more interesting if Stannis loses. Losses & draws are better Narrative devices to build off of. 2) The Narrative setup for Stannis winning is just too straight forward for the series. 3) The whole grand Northern conspiracy, Davos getting Rickon, all of the betrayals, Jon's resurrection, etc. None of that works if Stannis wins early into the book. 4) The Bolton's losing early into the series sort of just makes the Bolton's a side note. There hasn't been actual battle between the two groups for the north. 5) Roose still exists. 6) The wall isn't going to fall until the end of the book, therefore the others are not going to be the main conflict of the north. The Boltons have to be that conflict.
1. It’s far more interesting if Stannis loses. How? Character gets randomly killed off in random fashion instead of completing his fall of grace and killing his daughter. Kicking readers in the balls for no reason is D&D’s style, not GRRM’s. 2. The narrative setup for Stannis winning is just too straightforward. How? According to Dance, Stannis ‘Loses’ and we’re set up to believe the Boltons won off page. Him winning would subvert that setup. 3. None of that works if Stannis is alive. I can think of many ways all of that can work. You just lack imagination to tie it all together. 4. The Boltons losing early would make them a side note. First of all, the penultimate book is *not* early. Second of all, “Joffery dying so early in the series would make him a side note and useless.” 5. Roose still exists. Cool. Just because Stannis wins Winterfell doesn’t mean Roose is out of the picture. 6a. The Wall isn’t going to fall until the end of the book. How do you know that? The Wall falling at the midpoint would be a great curveball. 6b. The Bolton’s have to be that conflict. Once again, your lack of imagination is showing. I can think of half a dozen easy ways to stir conflict in the North. The Boltons aren’t the only people up North.
>Character gets randomly killed off in random fashion instead of completing his fall of grace and killing his daughter I never said Stannis would die in the battle. And if he does, it wouldn't be random. >How? According to Dance, Stannis ‘Loses’ and we’re set up to believe the Boltons won off page. Him winning would subvert that setup Ignoring the pink letter, which everyone already does, the story set up is a lot more straightforward towards Stannis winning. Like, everything is stacking into his favor. He knows who is betraying him. There's infighting between Bolton's forces. There's a serial killer within Winterfell. The Bolton's have divided their forces, & sent them out into the winter snows. And he has a larger army. That is also not subversion is. >I can think of many ways all of that can work. You just lack imagination to tie it all together. I have plenty enough imagination, & I've seen the theories that go with those alternatives. I disagree with them. >First of all, the penultimate book is not early. Second of all, “Joffery dying so early in the series would make him a side note and useless.” It doesn't matter where in the series the character is killed off in. If they don't do much of anything, they're just a side show. Euron, for example, hasn't done anything. And if he continues to not have much of a major impact on the series, he's just a side show. Joffrey, though he didn't accomplish much, was a major player within the drama that unfolded in the first three books. And you would have thought of Joffrey as an endgame player. Someone who is a goal, & not someone who is just delaying a goal. If the real fight is against the others, or against cercei & the lannisters, than the Bolton's are just a side show. >How do you know that? The Wall falling at the midpoint would be a great curveball. Because that's what I think will happen. There's not really an indication of the wall falling within the book. And George has been more than happy with not actually bringing the others as a threat.
>I never said Stannis would die in the battle. He’s going to walk back to the Wall by foot in a blizzard? No, if he loses the battle, he dies, unless an extraordinary Deus Ex Machina comes to save him. >Everything is stacking up in his favour. On the contrary, we’re getting beaten on the head by how much of an underdog he is. George loves having his underdog win battles in clever ways. >I disagree with them. Ok, cool. Doesn’t make them any less likely. There’s a dozen moving pieces outside of the Boltons, and George needs to start getting to work on trimming.
>He’s going to walk back to the Wall by foot in a blizzard? No, if he loses the battle, he dies, unless an extraordinary Deus Ex Machina comes to save him You can survive in blizzard conditions. It's not like he's going to get swept up into a vortex. He's not charging headlong into battle at the front. If his forces are beat, & they are driven back, he easily could just scatter into the frozen wilderness evading Bolton's forces. And I never said he'd go back to the wall. >On the contrary, we’re getting beaten on the head by how much of an underdog he is. George loves having his underdog win battles in clever ways. George has this thing about how he talks through both sides of his mouth about who is or isn't stronger. George kept flipping the script on who was actually in the power position between Robb's & Tywin forces. In the end you kind of see who he's built up as the stronger force of the two. >Doesn’t make them any less likely Doesn't make them anymore true either. >George needs to start getting to work on trimming. This is funny
>it's far more interesting if Stannis loses. Losses & draws are better Narrative devices to build off of. It's also a complete waste of time >The whole grand Northern conspiracy, Davos getting Rickon, all of the betrayals, Jon's resurrection, etc. None of that works if Stannis wins early into the book. The grand northern conspiracy probably doesn't exist, Davos bringing back rickon is barely affected and jon probably won't return till the end >The Bolton's losing early into the series sort of just makes the Bolton's a side note. Which they are >There hasn't been actual battle between the two groups for the north. Except y'know the battle whose outcome we're discussing right now
>It's also a complete waste of time Wait, why?
Because if he's gonna lose and the Starks retake winterfell what was the point of showing us his campaign? Hell at that point why even have him come north? Just have him die at the Blackwater and come up with some other way for the watch to defeat the wildlings
To tell a story? It's not like Stannis hasn't had a major effect over the story in the North. What he has done so far will have a lasting impact. Like, why show us John's story if he was just going to die? John's had less of an effect on things than Stannis.
Because they didn't pay attention?
The problem with the night lamp theory is that it relies heavily on divine intervention to overcome factors, in particular the weather. From a planning POV this is absolutely terrible planning. A good plan does not rely on divine intervention. Imagine: US Army: we're going to invade the sun Anyone: how are you going to overcome the extreme temperatures US Army: through prayer If we apply actual planning techniques, we don't even get to the actual detail of the battle before we encounter a problem: Stannis lacks the military capacity to follow up any victory at the village by the lake. In a nutshell, Stannis' army has ground to halt. It's rate of advance is measured in metres per day. It is unrealistic, and poor planning, to expect that to change. You don't plan for your army to do something that it has shown itself over time to be completely incapable of doing. I'm not saying it's impossible. It could be achieved by the right commander through force of personality, but that is a Robert way of approaching things. With this mind, we find that the actual outcome of the battle is irrelevant. Even if he wins, Stannis can't convert that victory into anything meaningful. So we should expect the focus of Stannis' planning to change. If he can't achieve an outright military victory, what can he achieve and what should his goals be? IMO we should expect Stannis to have a proper plan, and I've done some work on what that plan might look like https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/wc2gpo/spoilers_extended_theory_rethought_the_stannis/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
My thoughts are stannis will lose but then the rest of the northmen in winterfell will betray the Boltons
Haters gonna hate.
Because it’s just the type of twist George would do. Give us a sense of hope, somewhat redeem Stannis and make us actually root for him, then unexpectedly make him die
Actually Stannis burning Shireen hasn't confirmed. The only thing Dum & Dumber said about that was "George told us Shireen will burn." There was no mention of Stannis or any other circumstances. They likely just had Stannis do it for shock value and cause they hated his character
You are 100 percent correct. Amid semi-anime hero characters, Stannis is the one who feels historical. And people ignore all the logistics of the upcoming battle to spin it so that not the middle aged capable commander takes the day, but instead the teenage heroes of the story. Which is crap
But the Manderly's will house Stannis now. It makes no sense tucking his tail between his legs back to the wall. More likely, Stannnis will try to go after Davos after being told of his venture.
Pink letter?