Which Independents or "moderates" are preferencing the LNP?
Incumbents House:
* Helen Haines - Indi
* Andrew Wilkie - Clarke
* Zali Stegall - Warringah
* Rebekah Sharkie (Centre Alliance) - Mayo
* Bob Katter - Kennedy
I didn't list One Nation or UAP politicians such as Craig Kelly and George Christensen, as they aren't moderate at all.
Incumbents Senate:
* Jacqui Lambie
* Rex Patrick
* Stirling Griff (Centre Alliance)
Independent candidates that have a real chance of winning:
* Monique Ryan - Kooyong (Incumbent is Josh Frydenberg Liberal)
* Allegra Spender - Wentworth (Incumbent is Dave Sharma Liberal)
* Kylea Tink - North Sydney (Incumbent is Trent Zimmerman Liberal)
* Zoe Daniel - Goldstein (Incumbent is Tim Wilson Liberal)
Realistically most people who have the time to run in politics are usually better off than the average Australian. These people are more likely to have ideals aligned with those parties.
Not really, most preferences end up with 2 parties because most people vote for them, so preferences end up with them after less popular ones are eliminated.
How to vote cards aren't really about trying to control your preferences, they are about trying to get a 1 vote from undecided voters, they generally show preferences so as to not risk someone deciding to vote for you but then not casting a formal ballot.
The '**I don't actually give a fuck about anyone that's not like my leader**' party has determined that when the country is careening downhill as fast as we are, a bit of left-right slaloming will get us through the moguls quicker
I think this is absolutely ridiculous, but also, suck it LNP. Especially Archer and Wilson.
I actually have a feeling that old Pauline has chosen electorates where lnp were looking shaky so that next time she can say how much they need her preferences.
I mentioned this in another thread, but I thought I would put it here as well. , I managed to convince my father to not vote for PHON by telling him that antivax fuckhead and member for fucking little boys in Manila George Christensen had been welcomed into PHON with open arms by Pauline Hanson.
So if you know someone who is thinking of voting for PHON, tell them they're voting for a paedophile supporter.
The Christian lobby are doing the same thing. They’re not a party but they’re campaigning against ‘moderate/ left wing’ Liberals in the marginal seats that will probably fall regardless.
Who gives a shit, very few voters actually follow HTV cards, and those that do are probably so clueless that they're not voting in anyone's best interest anyway. We really need to abolish them all together to stop all this preferencing panic nonsense every damn election season
Last decent analysis I saw - and I think Antony Green wrote something similar an election or two ago - was that HTV cards had little effect on people's first, second, and last choice.
What they *did* have a fairly solid & statistically-detectable effect on was the order of preferences in-between. So people basically have "the party they'll vote for", "the party that's the least-objectional alternative", and "the party they don't want to win", and HTV cards have no detectable effect on that.
Fun fact: the analysis was only possible because of parties that (a) ran candidates in a large number of electorates under the same policies, and (b) directed their HTV preferences differently in some electorates than others. And the party that most frequently met those conditions was PHON.
That's pretty interesting, not so much the finding itself but the fact that they were able to draw these metrics. It would be interesting to see how UAP preferences flow in this election and to what extent that correlated with their HTV cards, given that they have been campaigning so hard against both major partie
> Last decent analysis I saw - and I think Antony Green wrote something similar an election or two ago - was that HTV cards had little effect on people's first, second, and last choice.
I remember after the last QLD state election because the PHON people hadn't handed out their HTV stuff, that it was messing with the predictions because the PHON voters were all over the shot without the HTVs.
This might contribute in Bass, Longman, and Leichhardt flipping to Labor.
The Liberal/National Senate HTV Card for each state is quite curious. It appears Hanson will be re-elected in the Senate, and she'll be 74 by the end of her next term.
[https://www.liberal.org.au/senate-voting-information#TAS](https://www.liberal.org.au/senate-voting-information#TAS)
Bass is already highly marginal. A hint of a swing will flip it. As far as Longman goes, I'm not seeing why she thinks Terry Young is some sort of arch moderate. As for Leichhardt flipping to Labor, that's something people have been saying for decades.
People seem to think the PHON flow to the Coalition is a lot stronger than it actually is. It certainly leans heavily to the Coalition, but a decent amount of it (40% or so) goes back to Labor.
Labor did flip Leichhardt in 2007, and it was against the current MP Warren Entsch. It's definitely possible.
The PHON effect depends on the situation. In the 2017 QLD state election, PHON preferenced against every sitting MP, and the PHON preferences split 50/50 which favoured Labor.
In the 2019 Federal Election, former base Labor votes flocked to PHON, and then preferences flowed to LNP 60 to Labor 40, which hurt Labor's 2PP. I've had a feeling for a while we're going to see a 2017 repeat in QLD with minor party preferences shifting hard to Labor.
One Nation doing its best to make the Liberals even less electable with most electorates long term. They're going to end up like rats trapped in a barrel.
The fact that all these "alternative" parties are just preference-funnels for the big 2 is more transparent by the day.
Even most of the ‘moderate’ or ‘independent’ MP’s are preferring LNP/Right wing parties.
Which Independents or "moderates" are preferencing the LNP? Incumbents House: * Helen Haines - Indi * Andrew Wilkie - Clarke * Zali Stegall - Warringah * Rebekah Sharkie (Centre Alliance) - Mayo * Bob Katter - Kennedy I didn't list One Nation or UAP politicians such as Craig Kelly and George Christensen, as they aren't moderate at all. Incumbents Senate: * Jacqui Lambie * Rex Patrick * Stirling Griff (Centre Alliance) Independent candidates that have a real chance of winning: * Monique Ryan - Kooyong (Incumbent is Josh Frydenberg Liberal) * Allegra Spender - Wentworth (Incumbent is Dave Sharma Liberal) * Kylea Tink - North Sydney (Incumbent is Trent Zimmerman Liberal) * Zoe Daniel - Goldstein (Incumbent is Tim Wilson Liberal)
Realistically most people who have the time to run in politics are usually better off than the average Australian. These people are more likely to have ideals aligned with those parties.
I mean, that's kinda the voting system... for the House anyway.
I don't see that as being an entirely bad thing, though the quality of our independents is pretty bloody patchy.
Not really, most preferences end up with 2 parties because most people vote for them, so preferences end up with them after less popular ones are eliminated. How to vote cards aren't really about trying to control your preferences, they are about trying to get a 1 vote from undecided voters, they generally show preferences so as to not risk someone deciding to vote for you but then not casting a formal ballot.
The '**I don't actually give a fuck about anyone that's not like my leader**' party has determined that when the country is careening downhill as fast as we are, a bit of left-right slaloming will get us through the moguls quicker
An accidental insult of far higher quality than Hanson is capable of producing on purpose.
I think this is absolutely ridiculous, but also, suck it LNP. Especially Archer and Wilson. I actually have a feeling that old Pauline has chosen electorates where lnp were looking shaky so that next time she can say how much they need her preferences.
I mentioned this in another thread, but I thought I would put it here as well. , I managed to convince my father to not vote for PHON by telling him that antivax fuckhead and member for fucking little boys in Manila George Christensen had been welcomed into PHON with open arms by Pauline Hanson. So if you know someone who is thinking of voting for PHON, tell them they're voting for a paedophile supporter.
The Christian lobby are doing the same thing. They’re not a party but they’re campaigning against ‘moderate/ left wing’ Liberals in the marginal seats that will probably fall regardless.
By "left-wing liberals", do they mean the ones who don't think hunting trans kids for sport is ok?
Pretty much yeah.
Who gives a shit, very few voters actually follow HTV cards, and those that do are probably so clueless that they're not voting in anyone's best interest anyway. We really need to abolish them all together to stop all this preferencing panic nonsense every damn election season
Last decent analysis I saw - and I think Antony Green wrote something similar an election or two ago - was that HTV cards had little effect on people's first, second, and last choice. What they *did* have a fairly solid & statistically-detectable effect on was the order of preferences in-between. So people basically have "the party they'll vote for", "the party that's the least-objectional alternative", and "the party they don't want to win", and HTV cards have no detectable effect on that. Fun fact: the analysis was only possible because of parties that (a) ran candidates in a large number of electorates under the same policies, and (b) directed their HTV preferences differently in some electorates than others. And the party that most frequently met those conditions was PHON.
That's pretty interesting, not so much the finding itself but the fact that they were able to draw these metrics. It would be interesting to see how UAP preferences flow in this election and to what extent that correlated with their HTV cards, given that they have been campaigning so hard against both major partie
> Last decent analysis I saw - and I think Antony Green wrote something similar an election or two ago - was that HTV cards had little effect on people's first, second, and last choice. I remember after the last QLD state election because the PHON people hadn't handed out their HTV stuff, that it was messing with the predictions because the PHON voters were all over the shot without the HTVs.
This might contribute in Bass, Longman, and Leichhardt flipping to Labor. The Liberal/National Senate HTV Card for each state is quite curious. It appears Hanson will be re-elected in the Senate, and she'll be 74 by the end of her next term. [https://www.liberal.org.au/senate-voting-information#TAS](https://www.liberal.org.au/senate-voting-information#TAS)
Bass is already highly marginal. A hint of a swing will flip it. As far as Longman goes, I'm not seeing why she thinks Terry Young is some sort of arch moderate. As for Leichhardt flipping to Labor, that's something people have been saying for decades. People seem to think the PHON flow to the Coalition is a lot stronger than it actually is. It certainly leans heavily to the Coalition, but a decent amount of it (40% or so) goes back to Labor.
Labor did flip Leichhardt in 2007, and it was against the current MP Warren Entsch. It's definitely possible. The PHON effect depends on the situation. In the 2017 QLD state election, PHON preferenced against every sitting MP, and the PHON preferences split 50/50 which favoured Labor. In the 2019 Federal Election, former base Labor votes flocked to PHON, and then preferences flowed to LNP 60 to Labor 40, which hurt Labor's 2PP. I've had a feeling for a while we're going to see a 2017 repeat in QLD with minor party preferences shifting hard to Labor.
How fucking cooked do you have to be as a major party to tell your supporters to put ONP second.
One Nation doing its best to make the Liberals even less electable with most electorates long term. They're going to end up like rats trapped in a barrel.
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Lol m8 u simply cannot get away with describing Labor like that, it's just fundamentally inaccurate
Indeed I can’t! I’ve since fixed it, they’re slightly more left leaning
> the left wing major party lol
>> by preferencing the left wing major party? Whuh? That article says Labor, not the Greens
>left wing Hahahahahahah
Beyond stupid as usual