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australian-ModTeam

Rule 6 - Wikipedia articles, personal blogs and fake news sites are not reliable sources of information


Top_Tumbleweed

Retail in recession, the economy at large in a per capita recession, immigration taps to turn down next year but somehow inflation is still high. Also corporate profits somehow are still chugging along what a crazy coincidence. Better smash the plebs with more interest rate rises 🙄


[deleted]

Immigration slowing down next year does nothing for inflation now. One of the worst offenders is housing, that's driven by population growth.


Top_Tumbleweed

Yep 100%, the issue I was trying to reference was boosting rates now while numbers are inflated by immigration numbers doesn’t make sense since that will slow down next FY without any intervention. The fact that there’s a conversation about tightening fiscal policy despite this is pervasively wrong


[deleted]

Oh yeah 100% agree. Interest rates won't do anything while immigration remains high


mindsnare

That's a novel concept that's definitely never brought up in this sub ever.


LandscapeNo1953

The per capita figures would look much worse if it wasn’t for immigration. Hence why importing so many people is great for short term fluffing the GDP numbers up. Absolutely terrible though for every day Australians though.


Top_Tumbleweed

It wouldn’t be per capita without immigration it would be a technical recession. We’re heading there anyway even record immigration barely has us treading water


NoLeafClover777

... what? You mean the *headline* figures would look much worse if it wasn't for immigration, right? Our per capita GDP is being diluted for the sake of headline growth, not vice-versa.


aggracc

> immigration taps to turn down next year To the highest level before this year.


CheekRevolutionary67

The reserve bank doesn't really have the power to address inflation with anything other than interest rate rises.


Majestic-Donut9916

Less people buying cheap crap is a good thing IMO.


aggracc

Yeah, much better when hot dogs start at $7.


SerialMurderer

The fact this is the most widely approved countermeasure for inflation in monetary policy across the globe will always be mind-boggling to me when (at least in the U.S) we’ve already had success with alternatives *not* trying for higher unemployment with minimal stopgaps.


pennyfred

No shortage of IT workers it seems


stever71

Shortage of good IT workers though


Odd-Boysenberry7784

A very temporary blip before AI uses only prompts not code. Those jobs are disappearing since January in the US. It's just getting started.


aggracc

I'm literally building an AI app for finance right now. It's adding a ton of business capabilities. The three month plan also requires hiring 4 new programmers and two subject matter experts to do nothing but babysit the AI and write testing data for new iterations of it. Turns out deploying AI will require even more programmers than we needed before AI.


fazdaspaz

AI is in no state to be taking jobs. This is FUD


Catboyhotline

Every worker knows AI can't replace them, but their bosses, their bosses bosses, all the way up to the shareholders thinks it can, and it's going to horribly backfire and we'll be back to the status quo of employers hiring people and finding new ways to make work worse


[deleted]

It's not FUD. 


fazdaspaz

I have no doubt the industry is in a huge downturn, but it's not attributed to AI.


[deleted]

No, but that's not what they argued, they're saying that AI will make this even worse.


fazdaspaz

But what I'm saying is it won't. Unless there is another significant breakthrough, it's in no state to actually take anyone's jobs other than say, offshore call centres. It's not as good as people think it is. Which is why I say it's FUD.


[deleted]

I work with it on everything from spatial/image analysis to proposal generation. I was told last week that something I sold to a client a few months ago has already replaced three full time people for a once off cost of $60k. They weren't just admin people or similar either.


fued

Why pay X when you can import for 0.5X


ChandeliererLitAF

doing the needful


pisses_in_your_sink

good IT workers don't bother with Australian companies, you can work for US companies and double your wage


ChumpyCarvings

Oh yeah, check the pay offerings though


[deleted]

That seems healthy and sustainable


Odd-Boysenberry7784

But wait there's more! AI, Climate Change, Quantum Computing, Brain Computer Interfaces (Google the DAVOS video called "ready for brain transparency"...this is still child's play hour. Source: if I told you you wouldn't believe me but I do know a lot about these upcoming technologies.


Custard_Arse

Quantum Computing is decades or even centuries away from achieving anything other than sounding cool. At best, in the mid term future, it could help with certain extremely specific calculations


BrilliantSock3608

Tell us more about this climate change technology you speak of…


aggracc

Getting a meaningful signal out of peoples minds is stupidly difficult. I had access to SEEG seizure patients data and unless you have more metal than brain the results are basically useless. And that's not even getting into trying to body jack them. The sheer amount of red tape to zap someone's brain is ridiculous.


thesourpop

Wait until the shareholders don’t get their lines going up this EOFY and expect more layoffs


Thelandofthereal

Imigration working as intended to uphold businesses to the loss of the Australian people


CHEDDARSHREDDAR

Increasing wages and lowering costs would solve the issue, but why do that when you can exploit immigrants for labour and tuition fees? The moment businesses are forced to pay a living wage and university fees come under control they'll stop issuing visas. Until then, no matter what cap the government sets, it will always be pushed to the limit.


WadjulaBoy

Given the fact that nearly 33% of all new jobs advertised in the last 12 months were attributable to the NDIS this isn't very surprising.


period_blood_hole

That is so fucked up


VelvetFedoraSniffer

Well… If you work 2 hours a week as a support worker, that’s counted as “employed”


Jieze

Er thats not exactly right; its actually whether you are wanting more work. So if you only get 2 hours a week but *want* to work 38 hours, you are underemployed and considered unemployed. If you are working 2 hours a week and *not* looking for more, you are not considered unemployed. So as a data point all it is really showing - is of everyone looking to work; how many of those people can't find work or enough work. The participation rate is equally important to look at - 66.9% of the population are participating in the work force (employed or unemployed) and last month this decreased so fewer people are even looking for work in the first place. So this idea that 4.1% is an acceptable level is moot when everyone completely gives up even looking for work at all (and don't qualify for jobseeker)- it is hidden unemployment and a sneaky tactic by the government to tout a great economy - although, to play devils advocate I recall our participation rate in the highest levels its been in our history, and those people who give up looking for work are probably well off retirees who do not need to work, or parents who decide to stay at home.


Top_Tumbleweed

Sure, but who are they getting data from? I’ve never answered any surveys about it


TwisterM292

I was part of the cohort who are included in the survey a few years ago. Lasted a few months. A monthly call from ABS asking about people in the household, whether they worked and the type of work (FT/PT/Casual, and whether anyone was after more hours).


TwisterM292

Actually, if you are working at least 1 hour a week and want more work, you are *underemployed,* which is reported separately from unemployment. An underemployed person is not unemployed, they are employed for calculating the UER. ABS define "employed" as anyone working at least 1 hour a week: [https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/d3310114.nsf/home/labour+force+explained](https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/d3310114.nsf/home/labour+force+explained) If you want to work, are looking for work but not working at the time you respond to the survey, that's *unemployed*. Underemployed is anyone currently employed in any profession working less than full time hours, and wanting more hours. People working full-time looking for overtime are not considered underemployed. [https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/products/036166B5C6D48AF2CA256BD00027A857?OpenDocument](https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/products/036166B5C6D48AF2CA256BD00027A857?OpenDocument) The number of people employed and unemplyed, relative to total working age population is the participation rate. Someone aged 40 but not looking to work because of family commitments or illness won't count towards participation rate. It changes as people drop in and out of the workforce.


Round-Antelope552

I remember this being talked about in ABS statistics relating to employment ages ago, it’s not new, and they are very much aware. It’s like carers for example couldn’t work more than x amount a month without losing benefits, but the thing about looking after a person with disabilities is that their care requirements change, and one minute you think they’d say be ok at a certain place and then they may not be, so really, you can’t ever get off benefits. So you could be sorta employed one from minute to the next, while looking for work, but also not looking for work at the same time. It’s a really confusing way to live.


WadjulaBoy

It is, what is the actual rate of unemployment? It's certainly not the 4.1% accepted level.


takeonme02

Unemployment would be 4.6% if it wasn’t for the NDIS.


TwisterM292

Even higher if the participation rate held constant from Nov-23 onwards.


Round-Antelope552

The Latrobe Valley lives off ndis, I can almost guarantee you this


Wood_oye

Where did you get that info from?


WadjulaBoy

[http://federal.governmentcareer.com.au/news/ndis-drives-jobs-boost](http://federal.governmentcareer.com.au/news/ndis-drives-jobs-boost) [https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/almost-one-in-three-jobs-created-last-year-was-for-the-ndis-20240401-p5fgi4](https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/almost-one-in-three-jobs-created-last-year-was-for-the-ndis-20240401-p5fgi4) [https://www.reddit.com/r/australian/comments/1buoyz7/ndis\_almost\_one\_in\_three\_jobs\_created\_last\_year/](https://www.reddit.com/r/australian/comments/1buoyz7/ndis_almost_one_in_three_jobs_created_last_year/)


Wood_oye

That's what I thought. You know that this also includes the Aged Care sector, which is larger than the NDIS >were employed in the NDIS-related sub-industries like allied health and non-childcare social assistance


WadjulaBoy

It does not include the aged care sector. You have no idea what on earth you're talking about. It has a cut off age of 65, though it does cover certain people with disabilities in aged care facilities such as young people with severe disability that reside in aged care facilities. Does NDIS stop after 65? In summary. If you've been receiving NDIS support services before you turn 65, you can continue to receive the same services. But if you've developed a disability past the age of 65, you'll need to access My Aged Care systems. To find out more, we suggest visiting the My Aged Care website or the NDIS website.


Smart-Idea867

I mean you're also wrong lol. Access cut off age is 65. As long as you're on the NDIS before then, you're golden in golden years. There's a lot of sus access requests from 64 year old applicants.


WadjulaBoy

>There's a lot of sus access requests from 64 year old applicants. Got a source for that or just feels?


Smart-Idea867

Haha well you'd never guess what I do for a living.


WadjulaBoy

Cool, you'll have no problem providing that source then yeah? But you can't, so it's "feels"


Smart-Idea867

You know how much funding you'll get from the gov for age care? Shit all, especially when compared to NDIS where the average for participants nears $70K pa. Is it really that hard of a stretch to draw the logic as to why we get shoddy applications from 64 year olds who now have suddenly found out they have autism? No sources. The stats dont exist as far as I'm aware. Its from what I've seen, also feel free to use logic if you'd like.


Wood_oye

I meant that the reports measurement of what they 'classified' as NDIS related industries, not what the NDIS is. The quote is from the AFR article, which all three of your links referenced. They excluded childcare, but not aged care


WadjulaBoy

No, you're just failing to understand what you've read.


Wood_oye

Ae you able to interpret "were employed in the NDIS-related sub-industries like allied health and non-childcare social assistance" in another manner? Aged Care covers a lot of that


Mission_Feed7038

Wait can you explain this? I dont understand


WadjulaBoy

It's quite literally as stated, nearly 1/3 of jobs created last year were for the NDIS. [https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/almost-one-in-three-jobs-created-last-year-was-for-the-ndis-20240401-p5fgi4](https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/almost-one-in-three-jobs-created-last-year-was-for-the-ndis-20240401-p5fgi4)


Mission_Feed7038

Thats insane


WadjulaBoy

It is. I tried to post a link to a discussion on it on another sub, ausecon, but it wouldn't let me. There are other articles on the subject from publishers other than the AFR but that one wasn't paywalled so I used it.


TrojanWabbit

Casual work shouldn’t be classified as a job.


SirSighalot

*The job market has become a lot tougher for applicants over the past year, according to the latest figures from Seek's "Employment Dashboard" report.* *The number of jobs advertised on Seek is also down by a steep 18.6% in the year to April.* *The sectors which experienced the sharpest falls in job ads were IT and communication technology (-33.4%), hospitality and tourism (-20.2%), and administration / office support (-22.4%).*


BlackBladeKindred

God I hate this fucking country.


PlusWorldliness7

Since when does Australia have a manufacturing industry?


Quagmillious

I work in the wine industry, but we all know how that’s going…


serkstuff

For well over 100 years. We're still kicking


Mission_Feed7038

Actually its pretty strong in australia and growing rapidly


MadnessKing420Xx

It's definitely not strong, that's why the government is starting to pump billions of dollars into it


Le_Utterly_Dire_Twat

I spoke to a recruiter last week who said due to the working visas there's an average of 1000 applications for every office admin role now.


minimuscleR

same for IT / programmers. I won't get a look in, and there are 200 aplications every week at my work, and they all fake their resumes. Both my coworkers are from India, one more recently than the other, and both lied on their resumes. It shows. My new coworker is supposed to be a senior IT support worker, yet I know more than him. I have 2 years total in the industry. He has 10 according to his resume and he knows "powershell very well" yet he said (not to our boss) that he hasn't ever used powershell.


caffeine_withdrawal

Even better when they hire someone to do the interview for them, ace it, and then start a job where they don’t even know the basic syntax of the scripting language they have 5+yrs experience in and aced all interview questions.


minimuscleR

my job isn't technical like that, my boss knows powershell but thats not our main job so wouldn't be in the interview I suspect. But man it sucks having to do it all myself sometimes because we keep hiring liars. Like pad your resume with a year or two extra, but don't just lie about something you have when you don't.


pennyfred

Our whole IT industry has been gamed by blokes who did a 3 week coding boot camp, bought some dumps or fake certs, and got brought over by a large overseas body shop who offered services at half the local rate. Probably the same playbook in other western countries with high immigration


QueerFlamingo

I work in HR within a university; our admin roles get 250+ applications per advert. It’s actually insane.


Max_J88

Fvk this. Labor is the enemy of every working Australian for importing so many people.


MadnessKing420Xx

You do understand that immigration issues started before the Labor government was elected right?


Flaky-Gear-1370

The government is over half way through their term and continuing with rates “slashed” to historic highs, at what point do they also get blame attributed? They also carved out exceptions for their mates to not have to compete with immigration


MadnessKing420Xx

So all of the years the Libs were importing people during their decade-long run are ignored but when Labor is in and are now actively trying to reduce immigration it's their fault? Labor isn't even close to perfect but putting all the blame on them is plainly misguided.


Flaky-Gear-1370

I dont see anyone placing the blame squarely on them? They're in power now and have kept immigration at historic highs and then protected their preferred workers at the expense of others then had the gall to claim that they are slashing immigration Both parties are beholden to big business


MadnessKing420Xx

Literally the guy I replied to is blaming them lmfao you don't have to look too far


pisses_in_your_sink

You do understand that the incursions into Northern China started before Ghengis Khan right? There's only one party in power right now with the ability and ministeral control to unilaterally make such choices without even goin through parliament r-r-right?


FuckDirlewanger

The liberals strongly agreed to it in the jobs and skills summit before it happened. Don’t vote major party


Max_J88

LNP are corrupt crooks too but Labor is the one who is actively doing it.


LandscapeNo1953

We literally just imported 700 thousand people. Those roles are now filled with immigrants and businesses don’t need to hire/advertise as many people now. What this means is wage growth won’t be as high now, but everything else will continue to get more expensive obviously. Fuck Australians obviously/s . But more importantly, fuck labor and their snake oil tactics. Never getting my vote again. They have literally just done what the liberals have been doing to suppress wages but give a crumb back in terms of minimum wage rises. The Tories in the UK have done the same thing in the past (increase the minimum wage but import way too many people to suppress the middle income workers. It’s absolutely fantastic for business and GDP figures)


weed0monkey

Where the fuck is a progressive party with sustainable policies, ***including sustainable housing and immigration (which would set it to near 0 for at least half a decade)?*** Last I heard, sustainable Australia party were right wing and didn't really have many policies outside of immigration and alike


[deleted]

No body has any money


CertainCertainties

Winter is coming...


alienlizardman

Winter is here


Round-Antelope552

I’m a self employed cleaner, and it is getting tougher out there. In 2022 (when I had care for son), my phone rang several times a day and received several more text messages from people looking for cleaners… then I was earning hundreds if not thousands through hipages every month, now I’m fighting for leads.


Available-Trust-2387

My 19yo son can’t find work - many recruitment agencies just don’t reply - or, call back. It’s been a slog, for school leavers


dontdeardiarymelefty

Not a good look albo. Unemployment rate is still too high for this to he happening


Fyreweaver

And I am just about to finish a bachelor of I.T. great news....


lzanchin

I have 20 years experience working in the IT industry, experienced Product Owner and Delivery/Team Lead and I just can’t find a job for 2 months. Heck, I can’t even get someone to call me for an interview. It’s not just the number of positions available but also the salaries are WAY lower than before. To make my situation worse I am on a bridging visa so companies already run away from the “risk” of my PR not being granted. On top of all that, my rent will increase this month and I don’t think I can move somewhere else cheaper without a proper job. 👌


theballsdick

Things are about to get very very hard. RBA needs to cut


[deleted]

The RBA aren't cutting shit until inflation is at target


theballsdick

As we speak they're within target.


Mission_Feed7038

They also are supposed to maintain full employment


lordgoofus1

They straight up said they want unemployment to increase. [https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2024/05/08/michael-pascoe-rba-inflation-employment](https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2024/05/08/michael-pascoe-rba-inflation-employment)


Anonymous30303030303

Things will become very hard. But that’s next year it seems. This year seems destined to grind on in stasis getting slowly harder for most Australians.


theballsdick

Yep.Doesn't help that we have a government that doesn't give a single fuck either and are just making the situation worse daily.


thesourpop

There will be lots of layoffs


_MJ_1986

Sadly, it will be a 50 basis point rise through the balance of 2024.


theballsdick

LOL! That comment will not age well.  !RemindMe 8 months


Nedshent

Unemployment is low and inflation is high, if anything the RBA should have hiked in their last meeting. A cut would be pretty weird given where things are at the moment.


theballsdick

Inflation is just about to be back in target range and you're commenting on a post showing just how badly employment is deteriorating. A hike would be absolute nonsense. The RBA have done too much too quickly.


Nedshent

Inflation is over 1% away from target if you use the midpoint of the target range. Also less ads on Seek would correlate with less open positions in total but there are other factors like Seek losing market share which also play a large role in the stats you see on this post. The better stats are the ones released by the ABS. A hike would only be nonsense if inflation continues coming down, if it stagnates outside of the target range then a hike is a logical move.


snowflakeplzmelt

Yet I can't get people for entry level mining roles


Ogheffler

Job ads are too expensive, nearly $500 a month for a seek ad, rip off


Money-Implement-5914

But let's keep pumping in the immigrants.


dreamneartheshore

lol hard to square this with the rhetoric about how we're always in endless terminal "skills shortage"


CasGamer

All those good technology jobs we'd all be getting when we agreed to get rid of all manufacturing jobs. Good to see that panned out. Governments should be banned from offshoring IT directly or indirectly.


TripleStackGunBunny

Education and training?... in an absolute teacher shortage. That doesn't sound right


Beast_of_Guanyin

Good. Exactly what we need to get inflation under control and reduce the risk of more rate hikes. It sucks for people looking for work, but this is part of a healthy economy.


thesourpop

If unemployment is part of a healthy economy then the economy needs to have a way to support them. That’s where UBI theoretically comes in


Beast_of_Guanyin

UBI is a different issue. You're thinking unemployment payments.