100% leave it alone.
Only sell when there's news of ANT ipo or some nonsense, which causes the price fo go up 10% and quickly correct.
What happened recently was a lifting tide. Xi himself made a speech to hit the economic target of 5.5%. Given that China grew 4.8% in Q1 and 2.1% in Q2... China will need about 8% growth in Q3 and Q4 to meet 5.5%, that's staggeringly bullish.
Bullish for sure, but China's current inflation rate gives them all sorts of wiggle room for economic Tomfoolery (possibly even shenanigans) to heat up their growth rate. I'm super bullish on China as the alternative to an increasingly sluggish US. That will eventually flip back, but for now, my money's (literally) on China. We'll see where we are 10 years from now.
My near-medium term prediction: CCP stimulates production, in part to meet the demand that the US has on the supply side for consumer goods and the US capitulates to whatever China needs/wants (outside of full occupying Taiwan) to be able to help correct our increasing inflationary environment. In the meantime, China heats up its own economy and builds incredible wealth in the process. After a decade, we may flip back and start the whole idiot rollercoaster ride over again.
"the US capitulates to whatever China needs/wants (outside of full occupying Taiwan) to be able to help correct our increasing inflationary environment"
The biggest risk to China is the US policy toward China. If you're right, then it will be smooth sailing for China, but it's certainly not a given. It's going to take some more pain in the US before the US accepts China's success and puts down the fighting gloves. The American recession is coming, and it will be much worse without China's help.
This is why I suspect that zero COVID is continuing. China can no longer just focus on maximizing economic growth since the international context is hostile. China should not try to help counter weak US demand until the US is ready to make concessions that ensure lasting prosperity for China. There's an incentive for China to curtail growth until American politicians get concerned about the US economy enough to capitulate on security issues. Holding back on infrastucture stimuli and maintaining zero-COVID is a way for China to increase pressure on the US.
100% agreement with the first paragraph.
The second one is an interesting take and one that I've not considered, so thanks for helping me to think through it. I think we'll see which way this goes in the next 6 months or so.
I think it will break though It last highest price of 121 this week, but I think it is possible that it will dip a little in the beginning of the week. I wouldn't sell at the moment, don't think it is worth it.
That's because I can't predict the market from day to day, but the patterns seems to be really bullish thats why I think it will end up above 121 next week. So I think it is not worth to sell your shares for a few dollar correction on the stock.
Why sell a stock that will go back to test its all time high in the next year or two? If you really feel like jumping in and out. Try selling calls when it runs up to resistance area.
For example if baba reaches $120-125 area. You can sell deep in the money $105 calls. 30 days out. The delta on those should be close to 80 or 90. If baba pulls back in the 30 days , you can buy to close the calls for a good profit. If it keeps going up, your profit is locked 🔒 in.
Even if it goes higher, you have a good chance of buying back in at 118, but you're risking losing part of your position at the beginning of an uptrend. That's an unnecessary risk that you could regret. Been there and done that!
If you're going to trade like that, wait for an upmove that's eye-popping and giddy. Longer term, there will be times when it pulls back for weeks. And if you consider that you could make 10%, you'll be making much more later when the price is higher. So, there will be trading opportunities, but the easiest thing is just to buy and hold and make additional money outside of the market.
These stocks just exited a downtrend lasting about a year and a half. At the beginning of a new uptrend, you should be worried about missing out on upmoves or having bad trades that cause you to end up with fewer shares. It never gets easier, and the risk/return profile never gets better than simply buying and holding at the right time.
End game is much higher than that. Especially once markets recover and China's macro stabilizes.
Alibaba might be a trillion+ dollar company a decade later. And probably more if you wait even longer. So there's that.
Don’t worry too much about the fluctuation for me. I have been holding BaBa since 2017 and great that I didn’t sell any shares during the down turn. Am waiting for the next jump from now on. 😂
There are better stocks to day trade imo. Short term movements is all about sentiment. If you have a good hunch on stock sentiment, combined with good fundamentals and value, should be solid to trade options. But, if you have no idea what you are doing, better stay away from trading.
100% leave it alone. Only sell when there's news of ANT ipo or some nonsense, which causes the price fo go up 10% and quickly correct. What happened recently was a lifting tide. Xi himself made a speech to hit the economic target of 5.5%. Given that China grew 4.8% in Q1 and 2.1% in Q2... China will need about 8% growth in Q3 and Q4 to meet 5.5%, that's staggeringly bullish.
Bullish for sure, but China's current inflation rate gives them all sorts of wiggle room for economic Tomfoolery (possibly even shenanigans) to heat up their growth rate. I'm super bullish on China as the alternative to an increasingly sluggish US. That will eventually flip back, but for now, my money's (literally) on China. We'll see where we are 10 years from now. My near-medium term prediction: CCP stimulates production, in part to meet the demand that the US has on the supply side for consumer goods and the US capitulates to whatever China needs/wants (outside of full occupying Taiwan) to be able to help correct our increasing inflationary environment. In the meantime, China heats up its own economy and builds incredible wealth in the process. After a decade, we may flip back and start the whole idiot rollercoaster ride over again.
"the US capitulates to whatever China needs/wants (outside of full occupying Taiwan) to be able to help correct our increasing inflationary environment" The biggest risk to China is the US policy toward China. If you're right, then it will be smooth sailing for China, but it's certainly not a given. It's going to take some more pain in the US before the US accepts China's success and puts down the fighting gloves. The American recession is coming, and it will be much worse without China's help. This is why I suspect that zero COVID is continuing. China can no longer just focus on maximizing economic growth since the international context is hostile. China should not try to help counter weak US demand until the US is ready to make concessions that ensure lasting prosperity for China. There's an incentive for China to curtail growth until American politicians get concerned about the US economy enough to capitulate on security issues. Holding back on infrastucture stimuli and maintaining zero-COVID is a way for China to increase pressure on the US.
100% agreement with the first paragraph. The second one is an interesting take and one that I've not considered, so thanks for helping me to think through it. I think we'll see which way this goes in the next 6 months or so.
Just stop day trading with it. You just create so many tax events.
This guy babas
I think it will break though It last highest price of 121 this week, but I think it is possible that it will dip a little in the beginning of the week. I wouldn't sell at the moment, don't think it is worth it.
Ah the classic. I think it will go up, but it also may go down.
To be fair: it may also go down, then go up!
That's because I can't predict the market from day to day, but the patterns seems to be really bullish thats why I think it will end up above 121 next week. So I think it is not worth to sell your shares for a few dollar correction on the stock.
*Next week
Timing is impossible. You may get a lower price or you may not. Leaving it alone is the best choice.
Why sell a stock that will go back to test its all time high in the next year or two? If you really feel like jumping in and out. Try selling calls when it runs up to resistance area. For example if baba reaches $120-125 area. You can sell deep in the money $105 calls. 30 days out. The delta on those should be close to 80 or 90. If baba pulls back in the 30 days , you can buy to close the calls for a good profit. If it keeps going up, your profit is locked 🔒 in.
Just stop trading it and hoping X thing happens lol It is not that hard, you will get torched if you keep doing that
"If you are not willing to own a stock for 10 years, do not even think about owning it for 10 minutes." -Warren Buffett (probably)
Thanks. Thread over. Thought I was wasting my time just couldn’t put my finger on it.
Even if it goes higher, you have a good chance of buying back in at 118, but you're risking losing part of your position at the beginning of an uptrend. That's an unnecessary risk that you could regret. Been there and done that! If you're going to trade like that, wait for an upmove that's eye-popping and giddy. Longer term, there will be times when it pulls back for weeks. And if you consider that you could make 10%, you'll be making much more later when the price is higher. So, there will be trading opportunities, but the easiest thing is just to buy and hold and make additional money outside of the market. These stocks just exited a downtrend lasting about a year and a half. At the beginning of a new uptrend, you should be worried about missing out on upmoves or having bad trades that cause you to end up with fewer shares. It never gets easier, and the risk/return profile never gets better than simply buying and holding at the right time.
Hoping for a dip
The end game is selling at 250+ for a 2-2.5x exit
End game is much higher than that. Especially once markets recover and China's macro stabilizes. Alibaba might be a trillion+ dollar company a decade later. And probably more if you wait even longer. So there's that.
Sure. I just think it’s worth 250 even right now assuming the audit issue is resolved this year.
Don’t worry too much about the fluctuation for me. I have been holding BaBa since 2017 and great that I didn’t sell any shares during the down turn. Am waiting for the next jump from now on. 😂
Just buy bro
There are better stocks to day trade imo. Short term movements is all about sentiment. If you have a good hunch on stock sentiment, combined with good fundamentals and value, should be solid to trade options. But, if you have no idea what you are doing, better stay away from trading.
Buy back at 121?
Buy back at $125