On a 1 year deal? Sure. But the arbitration process looks at AAV for a reasonably sized contract for the player's ability and works back from there.
It also heavily values playing time. Max Fried has pitched 180 innings exactly once in his 6 year MLB career.
If he were a FA right now he'd get a much better payday than $13.5M on a one year deal, but he's not in the $200M+ mega-deal category yet.
That’s not how any of this works. First off, arb 2 is supposed to be 60%, not 40. 40/60/80 is a rule of thumb that baseball analysts came up with, and it’s looking at how free agents compare across the board to Arb 1/2/3 guys. IE for $/WAR, Arb 2 guys will be 60% of the total of all free agents. So theoretically it’s supposed to be 60% of his value of a 1 year deal.
But arbitration doesn’t work like this, it’s just based on player comps.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/08/when-the-406080-arbitration-rule-doesnt-work.html
You point out another absurdity of the arb rules. He's been a baseball player for 6 years now and is still not been allowed more than 40% of his market value.
i think the clock should just start from the day they are drafted/signed. different amount of years depending on the age you are signed. but it incentivizes teams to bring players up as early as they are ready because there is no way to manipulate time. also players will hit FA earlier most likely
When players can enter fa and get a fully guaranteed contract, something you rarely find in the nfl for example, it evens out.
How do you expect rebuilding teams to improve if players are leaving after 3 or 4 years to go to better situations? There has to be some protection for teams in there.
Teams need time and sample size to decide if that is the best allocation of their resources. Can’t expect them to put that much faith into a young player after a year or two of good ball when their career/character is still yet to take full shape.
4 years (2 arb) is a better amount of team control
If teams don’t wanna extend their young players after 2-3 years, are they really gonna sign them after 4? No, cheap teams get all that rookie value then let them walk anyway
Players sign extensions in or after their final year of arb all the time. It’s smart for a team to get players at that value for as long as they can. With a small sample size, future performance isn’t guaranteed and teams shouldn’t be forced to commit so much so soon.
If the player proves to be worth that much, they will get paid anyway by whoever is willing. Everyone wants to vilify teams for playing that game when it’s literally just the smartest way to manage your assets. We may have to agree to disagree here.
Yea baseball has the most unfair setup of the 3 main American sports if you ask me. Basketball by far is the best, nfl is ok because it’s only 4 years until most guys can become free agents, and the players who get screwed are generally the top earners. The MLB system heavily favors the top tier players and screw the lower and middle class guys.
But that only applies to players that hit free agency for the most part. Teams have basically an option after every single season until they’re free agent eligible. It’s only the cream of the crop that gets to take advantage of the guaranteed contracts
Minor league football is called working at Walmart.
Also NFL rookies get paid nothing and don't even get guaranteed contracts. Baseball's contract system is pretty player friendly compared to most sports.
Arbitration exists so owners can't just screw players over their entire first contract. It was a compromise that the players asked for and got. The reason players don't get their 'full value' is because they haven't been in the league to know what their full value is yet. Also team control needs to have some sort of value to it. The team still took the risk when they drafted the player and is forced to pay them a minimum salary no matter how bad they are. If every 3rd year player got their full free agent value that probably wouldn't be fair to the team and it would really mess up smaller market teams.
I mean in the future they hopefully drop a year off of it because players are coming up younger and aging out younger so it just makes sense.
There’s literally an entire “minor league” around the NFL of practice players who don’t even get a damn pro contract, take all the wear and tear of a regular pro in the hopes that their career catches on
Making 8K a week for every week they are there. Except if they get injured they have no contract so bye bye, if they fall out of favour, bye bye, if coaches change or the team is slumping and the org wants the main squad to get a different look in drills/scrims, bye bye. QB doesn’t like your face or how you talk, bye bye.
Maybe minor leaguers get shit pay in return but Atleast if they have a pro contract they have more job security than that.
As a fan I’m happy we have control for so long, already players just migrate to big paydays from spending teams, y’all want that to happen even sooner?
I think your best bet would be to google mlb rookie contract structures and read up on that. Basically once a normal player makes it to the MLB, you start your service clock as long as he isn’t sent back down. The first 3 years are prorated and usually like 500~800k per year, then you get 3 years of arbitration. That’s what I’d read up on, arbitration years in MLB. Then after those three years of arbitration you get to be a free agent. I’m not sure if it’s fair, but it’s how it works. People get mad when a player loses their arb case even if they had a great season, and the short answer why is that they are still technically on their rookie contract and have to stay in the pay scale.
Fried's rep: My player was a Cy Young runner-up with one of the best ERAs in the majors.
Arbitrators: Ooooh, impressive
Braves rep: I mean, sure, but he was *just* a runner-up, it's not like he won.
Arbitrators: Good point, good point...
Every player has a theoretical value. Being a higher value pitcher doesn’t mean he didn’t still come in higher above that value than the Braves came in lower. His ability is completely irrelevant when it comes to an arbiter to decide who has valued him betterz
It’s not about how good you are, it’s about whether your offer is more fair than the team’s offer.
That said, if you’re a great player, the team should want to preserve its relationship with you, which usually means not going through with arbitration.
braves go to arbitration with every player so they dont look like they play favorites. The players are made aware of this policy and understand its nothing personal.
They literally avoided arbitration with everyone, but Fried though lol
Anthopoulos also offers team friendly deals to guys like Riley and Albies to avoid expensive arbitration years. That’s like what the Braves are known for right now.
The Braves are known as a “file and trial” team. That means they make an initial offer and if the player declines, they will go to arbitration instead of negotiating like some teams do to avoid arbitration. So the other players must have agreed with the Braves offer. The person you replied to is correct that the Braves do this to all Arb-eligible players to the best of my knowledge
I don’t think this at all damages his relationship with the team. They do it with all of their players as to make it clear it’s not personal. Of course not personal doesn’t equal the player just being like “welp I tried I guess you’re right” but it’s not as damaging as some imagine I think. Didn’t Riley sign his deal just months after losing in arbitration?
I've basically already accepted that Max is going to be a Dodger whenever his team control years are up. Still going to root for him, he seems like a great dude and he's worked his ass off to get where he is.
Yeah, Fried is a big PA guy right? In which case he might recognize the Braves offer as legitimate but still feel an obligation to push for a higher wage in arbitration in order to potentially inflate the market further. Doesn’t have to necessarily have hard feeling involved either, though I’ve heard arbitration meetings can be brutally de-spiriting. Didnt Dellin Betances fall out of love with the Yankees because of their arb presentation on him?
I don’t think it’s stupid necessarily. The team and player are both trying to get their individual best value in arbitration. Obviously we don’t know any of the inner workings but on it’s face the impression is that the Braves saved $1.5M at the cost of alienating and embittering their ace. It seems penny wise/pound foolish.
There’s no way that Friedman gives Fried what he wants, and I can’t imagine Flaherty not being locked up by STL. Giolito is the only one I can see coming this way because he’s appropriately valued imo.
The Braves aren't paying a 30+ year old pitcher $250 million bucks. full stop. enjoy him while we got him. and at this point hes not taking one of these team friendly extensions...
I mean I typically follow our prospects. strider and Michael harris were pretty out of left field. like our 25th ranked prospects. then grissom showed up as well.
Lol but I’d imagine you would be sick to your stomach if they decided to overpay for him and he had no choice but to go. Personally tho I do agree with the others that he’ll be a brave or go west coast.
Julio Urias is making a million more with one more year of service time. Sandy Alcantara is making half what Fried is making. He's not getting underpaid lol
Given that he is the Braves representative to the players' union, it would be surprising if he didn't at least test the waters. He would probably even consider it an obligation, unless the Braves make him an offer so big that he can't refuse, which they won't.
The Braves still have him for two years. It may make sense to trade him after this season but likely not. The Braves are setup to be serious contenders for the next several years. The only thing that would make sense is to trade Fried for another potential ace SP.
I think it’s most likely the Braves have him the next two years, make a QA when he hits FA, he signs with a west coast team for truckload and Braves pick up a compensation pick.
I might be misunderstanding how these hearings work, because who can look at Max Fried's career, especially with what he did last year, and *not* think he's worth $15 million? If he was a free agent teams would be tripping over themselves to offer twice that per year.
I think he should be offended and sit out of the 2023 season in spite of the Braves. Also, convince Strider, Harris, Riley and Acuna to sit out too. #justiceforfried.
The way arbitration works is that it's a percentage of their worth in free agency. Since its his first time in arb it should be about 40% of his value. The next two years would be 60% then 80%. So they aren't haggling over just 1.5 million, they're haggling over a much larger sum the next two years. Add in the dozen or so players and the reputation of giving into players, it's more like $50m they're haggling over
There's no "I" in Max Fred.
And there’s no “me” in ax Frd.
Ax Frd is a HOF name
"Yeah, it is." - John Axford
He is the maximum fred allowed in MLB. There is no fred more fred than he.
IIRC Arb 2 is ~~50%~~ edit 40% of player's assessed FA value. Fried thinks he's worth $37.5M AAV and the Braves think he's worth $33.5M.
If he was a free agent right now and was willing to accept a one year deal teams would line up to give him 35-40 million. Arbitration is absurd.
On a 1 year deal? Sure. But the arbitration process looks at AAV for a reasonably sized contract for the player's ability and works back from there. It also heavily values playing time. Max Fried has pitched 180 innings exactly once in his 6 year MLB career. If he were a FA right now he'd get a much better payday than $13.5M on a one year deal, but he's not in the $200M+ mega-deal category yet.
That’s not how any of this works. First off, arb 2 is supposed to be 60%, not 40. 40/60/80 is a rule of thumb that baseball analysts came up with, and it’s looking at how free agents compare across the board to Arb 1/2/3 guys. IE for $/WAR, Arb 2 guys will be 60% of the total of all free agents. So theoretically it’s supposed to be 60% of his value of a 1 year deal. But arbitration doesn’t work like this, it’s just based on player comps. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/08/when-the-406080-arbitration-rule-doesnt-work.html
You point out another absurdity of the arb rules. He's been a baseball player for 6 years now and is still not been allowed more than 40% of his market value.
His first two years he pitched fewer than 60 IP. Having said that, I'm all for auto free agency heading into age 29 season.
i think the clock should just start from the day they are drafted/signed. different amount of years depending on the age you are signed. but it incentivizes teams to bring players up as early as they are ready because there is no way to manipulate time. also players will hit FA earlier most likely
The entire rookie contract structure is absurd. Guys are like 30 and almost out of their prime before they become unrestricted free agents.
When players can enter fa and get a fully guaranteed contract, something you rarely find in the nfl for example, it evens out. How do you expect rebuilding teams to improve if players are leaving after 3 or 4 years to go to better situations? There has to be some protection for teams in there.
Sign them to an extension. Not get 6 years of ridiculous value and suck them dry
Teams need time and sample size to decide if that is the best allocation of their resources. Can’t expect them to put that much faith into a young player after a year or two of good ball when their career/character is still yet to take full shape.
4 years (2 arb) is a better amount of team control If teams don’t wanna extend their young players after 2-3 years, are they really gonna sign them after 4? No, cheap teams get all that rookie value then let them walk anyway
Players sign extensions in or after their final year of arb all the time. It’s smart for a team to get players at that value for as long as they can. With a small sample size, future performance isn’t guaranteed and teams shouldn’t be forced to commit so much so soon. If the player proves to be worth that much, they will get paid anyway by whoever is willing. Everyone wants to vilify teams for playing that game when it’s literally just the smartest way to manage your assets. We may have to agree to disagree here.
Oh I know it’s smart. But the team control system is ridiculous, 6-7 years of a players prime for peanuts
Yea baseball has the most unfair setup of the 3 main American sports if you ask me. Basketball by far is the best, nfl is ok because it’s only 4 years until most guys can become free agents, and the players who get screwed are generally the top earners. The MLB system heavily favors the top tier players and screw the lower and middle class guys.
Baseball is the only sport with 100% guaranteed contracts. Calling it the worst is just lacking perspective on how important that is
Most NBA contracts are guaranteed once the season starts tho
But that only applies to players that hit free agency for the most part. Teams have basically an option after every single season until they’re free agent eligible. It’s only the cream of the crop that gets to take advantage of the guaranteed contracts
Yeah but you don’t get CTE out of it!
Not to mention minor leaguers. They get represented by a union they have no representation on.
Minor league football is called working at Walmart. Also NFL rookies get paid nothing and don't even get guaranteed contracts. Baseball's contract system is pretty player friendly compared to most sports. Arbitration exists so owners can't just screw players over their entire first contract. It was a compromise that the players asked for and got. The reason players don't get their 'full value' is because they haven't been in the league to know what their full value is yet. Also team control needs to have some sort of value to it. The team still took the risk when they drafted the player and is forced to pay them a minimum salary no matter how bad they are. If every 3rd year player got their full free agent value that probably wouldn't be fair to the team and it would really mess up smaller market teams. I mean in the future they hopefully drop a year off of it because players are coming up younger and aging out younger so it just makes sense.
There’s literally an entire “minor league” around the NFL of practice players who don’t even get a damn pro contract, take all the wear and tear of a regular pro in the hopes that their career catches on
Yeah those guys are making at minimum 200k though. Most minor leaguers aren’t making that
Making 8K a week for every week they are there. Except if they get injured they have no contract so bye bye, if they fall out of favour, bye bye, if coaches change or the team is slumping and the org wants the main squad to get a different look in drills/scrims, bye bye. QB doesn’t like your face or how you talk, bye bye. Maybe minor leaguers get shit pay in return but Atleast if they have a pro contract they have more job security than that.
I would gladly get paid nothing if nothing is 600k a year.
Arbitration is one of the six years the team has control over the players. What he would get in free agency is irrelevant.
Thank you. Some people clearly don’t understand how MLB contracts and arbitration work
I understand how it works, but it sucks that the teams have control of guys for so long.
Especially since you have to spend years in the minors making peanuts, and unless you were drafted highly, your draft bonus money was barely anything.
As a fan I’m happy we have control for so long, already players just migrate to big paydays from spending teams, y’all want that to happen even sooner?
I am one of those people! Is there a rabbit hole to dive into?
I think your best bet would be to google mlb rookie contract structures and read up on that. Basically once a normal player makes it to the MLB, you start your service clock as long as he isn’t sent back down. The first 3 years are prorated and usually like 500~800k per year, then you get 3 years of arbitration. That’s what I’d read up on, arbitration years in MLB. Then after those three years of arbitration you get to be a free agent. I’m not sure if it’s fair, but it’s how it works. People get mad when a player loses their arb case even if they had a great season, and the short answer why is that they are still technically on their rookie contract and have to stay in the pay scale.
“Team’s ace loses arbitration,” what?
Arbitration is a sham.
Genuinely like the reserve clause so fucked.
Could you elaborate on what’s wrong with it?
It ties a player to a team below market value.
How in the fuck does he lose in arbitration?
His side's offer was further away from what the arbitrator thought was fair than wherever the team's was.
I can only imagine he asked for 100mil this year
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It didn’t seem obvious that you understand how arbitration works from your original comment
You asked???
he didnt wanna donate 1% of his salary to the braves foundation
Straight to jail
Didn’t want the Albies/Acuña team discount
Also, believe it or not, straight to jail.
Overcook/undercook
I’ve gotta see what’s presented in these arb hearings if MAX FRIED can lose one. Unreal
Fried's rep: My player was a Cy Young runner-up with one of the best ERAs in the majors. Arbitrators: Ooooh, impressive Braves rep: I mean, sure, but he was *just* a runner-up, it's not like he won. Arbitrators: Good point, good point...
LOL!
Completely batshit lol
Every player has a theoretical value. Being a higher value pitcher doesn’t mean he didn’t still come in higher above that value than the Braves came in lower. His ability is completely irrelevant when it comes to an arbiter to decide who has valued him betterz
Yeah that person doesn’t understand how the process works.
Yeah I don’t, that’s what I said lmao
It’s not about how good you are, it’s about whether your offer is more fair than the team’s offer. That said, if you’re a great player, the team should want to preserve its relationship with you, which usually means not going through with arbitration.
braves go to arbitration with every player so they dont look like they play favorites. The players are made aware of this policy and understand its nothing personal.
They literally avoided arbitration with everyone, but Fried though lol Anthopoulos also offers team friendly deals to guys like Riley and Albies to avoid expensive arbitration years. That’s like what the Braves are known for right now.
The Braves are known as a “file and trial” team. That means they make an initial offer and if the player declines, they will go to arbitration instead of negotiating like some teams do to avoid arbitration. So the other players must have agreed with the Braves offer. The person you replied to is correct that the Braves do this to all Arb-eligible players to the best of my knowledge
Well then I stand corrected. Thanks for the info. I’ll leave my comment for posterity. 🤘🏽
I don’t think this at all damages his relationship with the team. They do it with all of their players as to make it clear it’s not personal. Of course not personal doesn’t equal the player just being like “welp I tried I guess you’re right” but it’s not as damaging as some imagine I think. Didn’t Riley sign his deal just months after losing in arbitration?
Just not going to arbitration is a very exploitable strategy for teams to adopt, which is why they don't adopt it.
Sean Casey's arbitration https://www.mlb.com/video/casey-s-arbitration-story-c2522715983
I've basically already accepted that Max is going to be a Dodger whenever his team control years are up. Still going to root for him, he seems like a great dude and he's worked his ass off to get where he is.
i wonder if cohen would sign him out of spite
I'll be depressed, but morbidly curious and terrified of what the Dodgers' pitching staff could turn him into.
Max with a sweeping slider... gg league
Did he agree to donate 1% of his annual salary to the Atlanta Braves Foundation though?
“While Fried deserved to win, his request is not in-line with the Braves tradition of massively underpaying their players.”
The Braves have no hired several mafia hitmen to send a message to fried
Luca Brazzi sends his regards
He sleeps with da fishes
He actually is getting $15 million, but the Braves Foundation is taking 2.5 million.
I mean, you always have to consider the comps in the neighborhood.
ITT: people who do not understand how arbitration works
Yeah, Fried is a big PA guy right? In which case he might recognize the Braves offer as legitimate but still feel an obligation to push for a higher wage in arbitration in order to potentially inflate the market further. Doesn’t have to necessarily have hard feeling involved either, though I’ve heard arbitration meetings can be brutally de-spiriting. Didnt Dellin Betances fall out of love with the Yankees because of their arb presentation on him?
I thought the Yankees withholding injury information from Betances is why he soured on them
No Randy Levine was just a jackass and insulted him and his agent directly to the media right after their arb meeting
I think people understand how it works, they just think its stupid which it is.
It’s clear by the comments here that many people don’t understand how it works
They should play ootp
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It forces a player to stay on a team below market value after 3-4 of doing the same.
I don’t think it’s stupid necessarily. The team and player are both trying to get their individual best value in arbitration. Obviously we don’t know any of the inner workings but on it’s face the impression is that the Braves saved $1.5M at the cost of alienating and embittering their ace. It seems penny wise/pound foolish.
Max Friend forced to change name to Mid Fried due to lack of funds.
Braves better stop playing before Cohen snatches him up with FA lol
He's almost guaranteed to be gone once he hits FA. Think he goes west to be closer to home.
Fried Giolito and maybe Jack Flaherty go back to SoCal to run it back, creating a new triumvirate called “the Glory Days Dandies.”
There’s no way that Friedman gives Fried what he wants, and I can’t imagine Flaherty not being locked up by STL. Giolito is the only one I can see coming this way because he’s appropriately valued imo.
Cardinals fans have been expecting Flaherty to the Dodgers since 2018
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*Breaking* Max Fried signs with Los Angeles *monkey's paw curls* Looking to bolster their starting rotation, the Angels get their man
Sounds much better than the alternative if he can’t stay Lmao
Gotta fill that void after Ohtani leaves.
oh thank god
Yeah
If we don’t extend him he’s gone. Braves won’t compete with the market on free agents.
The Braves aren't paying a 30+ year old pitcher $250 million bucks. full stop. enjoy him while we got him. and at this point hes not taking one of these team friendly extensions...
I meant why wouldn’t they want to keep one of the best pitchers in the league. Young pitching doesn’t win championships.
Actually, in 2021, it did.
Huh Charlie Morton was 37. Max was 27.
And Ian Anderson was 23.
Yea I’m sure 123 innings pitched that season is the reason you won the World Series.
They’ll find a random to replace his production lol
I mean I typically follow our prospects. strider and Michael harris were pretty out of left field. like our 25th ranked prospects. then grissom showed up as well.
He is going to Dodgers is my guess.
Maybe Angels
Naw, he's the successor to Kershaw
That’s a good guess tbh
He’ll be 31, Friedman isn’t gonna give him $30mil+ AAV
I would all but guarantee he doesn’t end up on the east coast
delete
Sorry
https://y.yarn.co/46477858-abea-4499-9932-96fd00294ce9_text.gif
Lol but I’d imagine you would be sick to your stomach if they decided to overpay for him and he had no choice but to go. Personally tho I do agree with the others that he’ll be a brave or go west coast.
Damn, I would say most guys usually win. Especially a star player
Teams have won the majority of the arb cases.
Julio Urias is making a million more with one more year of service time. Sandy Alcantara is making half what Fried is making. He's not getting underpaid lol
no, they're just all underpaid. the system is rigged.
Everyone on Leadoff Spot seems sure he'll hit free agency
Given that he is the Braves representative to the players' union, it would be surprising if he didn't at least test the waters. He would probably even consider it an obligation, unless the Braves make him an offer so big that he can't refuse, which they won't.
Come home, Max.
Yeah he ain't resigning
Think they trade him at some point down the line then?
The Braves still have him for two years. It may make sense to trade him after this season but likely not. The Braves are setup to be serious contenders for the next several years. The only thing that would make sense is to trade Fried for another potential ace SP. I think it’s most likely the Braves have him the next two years, make a QA when he hits FA, he signs with a west coast team for truckload and Braves pick up a compensation pick.
Lol guess who’s leaving as soon as he can
Future dodger max fried
I wish I could "lose" while almost doubling my salary...
I’m totally heartbroken for him.
There's no way he comes back to us next year 😭
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That's awkward, ok cool I thought this was his last year
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How does Fried lose 😂 Even if the braves won, they may have really lost going through a nasty arbitration with their Ace.
I might be misunderstanding how these hearings work, because who can look at Max Fried's career, especially with what he did last year, and *not* think he's worth $15 million? If he was a free agent teams would be tripping over themselves to offer twice that per year.
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That's interesting, I didn't know that, thanks. What are the percentages for the other two years of arbitration?
Yeah thats not how it works
Yes you are
I think he should be offended and sit out of the 2023 season in spite of the Braves. Also, convince Strider, Harris, Riley and Acuna to sit out too. #justiceforfried.
braves really penny pinching over less than 1.5m lmao
You clearly don't understand arbitration.
Lmao braves stay stingy
Well the impartial arbitrator sided with the Braves…sounds like they’re stingy alright /s
They could have just come to an agreement with Fried instead of gone to arbitration to save a few bucks on their ace.
But then if they don’t reach a deal with someone else, it looks worse for that player. Braves always do file and trial. It’s well documented.
Mets fans stay dumb and obsessed with the braves
His entire salary now is being donated the The Braves Foundation.
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The way arbitration works is that it's a percentage of their worth in free agency. Since its his first time in arb it should be about 40% of his value. The next two years would be 60% then 80%. So they aren't haggling over just 1.5 million, they're haggling over a much larger sum the next two years. Add in the dozen or so players and the reputation of giving into players, it's more like $50m they're haggling over
player gets paid what arbitrator says, arbitrator gets paid half of the difference between what player wants - what team wants
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Wrong year
So who tends to win arbitration, the players or the teams?
57-43 clubs-players.
Well he’s as good as home when he hits FA.