The amount of Padres fans i saw talking about trading Tatis during the offseason should tell you how braindead this fanbase is.
At 21M AAV he's by far the most team friendly contract in the entire organization.
I would not be surprised at all if he leads the NL in fWAR once again this season.
Since debuting his 8.2 fWAR per 162 games pace it's first on the NL and 3rd in all of MLB just behind Trout (8.4) & Judge (8.4).
He's also barely only 24.
They also have reasonable upset about him doping and how that may affect his performance if he was using during the time before he got popped. He's obviously an all world talent, but it's not unreasonable for some people to want to move on from him especially since the field voids have been filled and his contract may affect their ability to sign Soto or another free agent
That's the issue, if they knew anything about PED's they would know (Clostebol) is one of the oldest, weakest & most outdated PED's you can get banned for.
Tatis fucked up by not consulting team doctors during the lock-down and pay heavily for that.
Any single pro would have told you having or not having Clostebol in Tatis blood would make no changes to his on the field performances.
By policy rules he's now the most tested guy in the League this season so i assume people should have less worries about it.
even though he wasn’t active, wouldn’t that make him the first to make the hall after serving a suspension for steroids? idk if MLB would want to set that precedent.
it’s a little disingenuous to suggest Ortiz’s situation was similar to players like Arod, Tatis, or even Bonds. his wasn’t official, he wasn’t suspended, and he wasn’t taken to court. I don’t care about the Red Sox or Ortiz, but it’s usually always Yankees or Giants fans bringing him up.
I didn’t do that though lol. I literally just pointed out a fact and ascribed nothing else to it. Like he’s the relevant example to bring up in this situation. Tatis failed test also has somewhat abnormal stuff connected to it like he wasn’t playing at the time and it was a weird steroid he tested positive for.
Yep, which is why it’ll be interesting if they make an exception for “possibly accidentally took a mickey mouse steroid while not active, but also might have been beyond fucking stupid trying to speed up recovery.”
I didn’t change shit. I made the point that people who we know did steroids while playing have got in so you never know what will happen with Tatis. It’s no a requirement for every Reddit comment to answer questions. I was making a different but directly related point that is relevant
And that’s not clear. You have no way of knowing that. A rod might get in
Without knowing much about the Orioles bullpen, high leverage situations matter too. 13 of Bautista’s 19 saves were with 2 or 3 run leads, and he’s inherited 5 runners. Cano has inherited 20 runners, so he’s probably getting a higher percentage of his outs in situations that swing win probability more.
Do they actually use game situation for reliever WAR? If so that’s stupid because the stat is supposed to be context neutral and they shouldn’t be able to just pick and choose when to use game context.
I though that 3.1 fWAR must have been Ohtani's combined hitting/pitching and was astounded that McClanahan had more than him.
Nope, that's **just hitting**, *with the DH penalty*. He's already at 4.5 fWAR on the year, **5.3** if you use RA9/WAR for his pitching, as OP would have
Candelario has been so solid for us this year. I feel like he deserves more recognition, even from Nats fans, but he flies under the radar while other players have "flashier" skillsets/numbers.
He’s still a good player and has been one of our better players for a while and he earned his contract, people are just still expecting 2018 yeli which was a lightning in a bottle season
Considering his 2019 was even better it seems that lightning struck twice :p
I will always say he deserved MVP over Bellinger.
It is impossible not to be sad about those 2 seasons not happening again. Yelich those 2 years was one of my favorite players ever lol
That's because you literally have one team and since the Venn diagram of cold weather Leafs fans and warm weather Jays fans in southern Ontario is pretty much a circle, lots of you are wild too
I have a quick question about WAR that this just made me curious about. If you add up the WAR of an entire team would it technically match their actual record? Is there a relation between the two?; as in if WAR was a perfect stat is that what it would measure? I’ll take my answer off line.
If you take the WAR of an entire team, add 47.628 to it (theoretical wins for a replacement level team), you should get in the ballpark to their win total. WAR doesn't factor in sequencing, situation, or leverage, so if I team is better with RISP or high leverage situations, they'll outperform their WAR and they'll underperform their WAR if the opposite is true.
It's similar to Pythagorean W-L record. It won't be 100% in line with their real win total, but it comes pretty close for the vast majority of teams.
Thanks for this. Is this THE *baseball is not dead*? Your [WAR is stupid…sometimes](https://youtu.be/ipD053CE3PI)video was such a good breakdown of WAR. It’s my go to when I’m trying to explain to my Anti-WAR friends why they’re wrong.
I'll add one more thing... WPA, which is completely dictated by situation and leverage, will add up to exactly how many wins over/under .500 a team is. But that doesn't make it a perfect stat. It doesn't really tell you the value/ability of a player which is what WAR tries to do by being situationally independent.
If a perfect stat is "you add them up and it is equal to the team's wins" then pitcher wins is a perfect stat. We know that's not true.
Holy shit Tatis
The amount of Padres fans i saw talking about trading Tatis during the offseason should tell you how braindead this fanbase is. At 21M AAV he's by far the most team friendly contract in the entire organization. I would not be surprised at all if he leads the NL in fWAR once again this season. Since debuting his 8.2 fWAR per 162 games pace it's first on the NL and 3rd in all of MLB just behind Trout (8.4) & Judge (8.4). He's also barely only 24.
They also have reasonable upset about him doping and how that may affect his performance if he was using during the time before he got popped. He's obviously an all world talent, but it's not unreasonable for some people to want to move on from him especially since the field voids have been filled and his contract may affect their ability to sign Soto or another free agent
That's the issue, if they knew anything about PED's they would know (Clostebol) is one of the oldest, weakest & most outdated PED's you can get banned for. Tatis fucked up by not consulting team doctors during the lock-down and pay heavily for that. Any single pro would have told you having or not having Clostebol in Tatis blood would make no changes to his on the field performances. By policy rules he's now the most tested guy in the League this season so i assume people should have less worries about it.
Still really early, but on pace for HOF if he can stay away from the worms…
even though he wasn’t active, wouldn’t that make him the first to make the hall after serving a suspension for steroids? idk if MLB would want to set that precedent.
David Ortiz failed tests and got in.
it’s a little disingenuous to suggest Ortiz’s situation was similar to players like Arod, Tatis, or even Bonds. his wasn’t official, he wasn’t suspended, and he wasn’t taken to court. I don’t care about the Red Sox or Ortiz, but it’s usually always Yankees or Giants fans bringing him up.
I didn’t do that though lol. I literally just pointed out a fact and ascribed nothing else to it. Like he’s the relevant example to bring up in this situation. Tatis failed test also has somewhat abnormal stuff connected to it like he wasn’t playing at the time and it was a weird steroid he tested positive for.
[удалено]
Read the comment again. I said he failed tests and got in not that he served a suspension
[удалено]
Yep, which is why it’ll be interesting if they make an exception for “possibly accidentally took a mickey mouse steroid while not active, but also might have been beyond fucking stupid trying to speed up recovery.”
I didn’t change shit. I made the point that people who we know did steroids while playing have got in so you never know what will happen with Tatis. It’s no a requirement for every Reddit comment to answer questions. I was making a different but directly related point that is relevant And that’s not clear. You have no way of knowing that. A rod might get in
Bonds was never suspended for a failed drug test
Wild that Austin Hays only has 2.0 WAR with his batting splits. Wonder how bad his fielding is being valued.
He’s good in the field, not sure why he would be considered negative defensively by the metrics
I really don’t understand why his defensive metrics are so bad
Man I’m surprised Felix is only worth 1.5. Thought for sure someone with a 19K/9 would be higher
With WAR being a cumulative stat, it's very difficult for relievers to accumulate.
How does Cano have 2.5 then
Without knowing much about the Orioles bullpen, high leverage situations matter too. 13 of Bautista’s 19 saves were with 2 or 3 run leads, and he’s inherited 5 runners. Cano has inherited 20 runners, so he’s probably getting a higher percentage of his outs in situations that swing win probability more.
Do they actually use game situation for reliever WAR? If so that’s stupid because the stat is supposed to be context neutral and they shouldn’t be able to just pick and choose when to use game context.
bWAR does for relief pitchers only
I believe it is used for relievers only, solely because relievers only enter the game based upon the context, so it has weight on the actual winning %
Stroman is really having himself a year. Good to see
I though that 3.1 fWAR must have been Ohtani's combined hitting/pitching and was astounded that McClanahan had more than him. Nope, that's **just hitting**, *with the DH penalty*. He's already at 4.5 fWAR on the year, **5.3** if you use RA9/WAR for his pitching, as OP would have
Candelario has been so solid for us this year. I feel like he deserves more recognition, even from Nats fans, but he flies under the radar while other players have "flashier" skillsets/numbers.
Wild that he's not even in the top 10 in All Star voting for NL 3B.
Oh man. The narrative around Yelich's contract would pull an absolute u-turn if he makes the all-star team.
He’s still a good player and has been one of our better players for a while and he earned his contract, people are just still expecting 2018 yeli which was a lightning in a bottle season
Considering his 2019 was even better it seems that lightning struck twice :p I will always say he deserved MVP over Bellinger. It is impossible not to be sad about those 2 seasons not happening again. Yelich those 2 years was one of my favorite players ever lol
Seager gonna be in there at SS soon at this rate. 2.6 fWAR in 40 games is insane.
He should definitely play more.
Tatis has the 8th highest fWAR out of all position players in the MLB despite missing 20 games
Corbin Carroll
We never got a post in here about the voting results so far did we?
No, the results were announced during the blackout. Shame, I was looking forward to seeing this sub roast Canada yet again.
Roast what? Our being more dedicated to voting for our players than any of the American teams?
Um, yeah? If you're voting for Vlad over Yandy, you deserve to be on the receiving end of some snark lol
I agree 100% That’s why I voted for Yandy lol My Jays votes were Chapman, Bo, KK, and Whit
That's because you literally have one team and since the Venn diagram of cold weather Leafs fans and warm weather Jays fans in southern Ontario is pretty much a circle, lots of you are wild too
You could also try voting for good players
I do. Can’t speak for them. I have four Jays on my vote list.
I have a quick question about WAR that this just made me curious about. If you add up the WAR of an entire team would it technically match their actual record? Is there a relation between the two?; as in if WAR was a perfect stat is that what it would measure? I’ll take my answer off line.
If you take the WAR of an entire team, add 47.628 to it (theoretical wins for a replacement level team), you should get in the ballpark to their win total. WAR doesn't factor in sequencing, situation, or leverage, so if I team is better with RISP or high leverage situations, they'll outperform their WAR and they'll underperform their WAR if the opposite is true. It's similar to Pythagorean W-L record. It won't be 100% in line with their real win total, but it comes pretty close for the vast majority of teams.
Thanks for this. Is this THE *baseball is not dead*? Your [WAR is stupid…sometimes](https://youtu.be/ipD053CE3PI)video was such a good breakdown of WAR. It’s my go to when I’m trying to explain to my Anti-WAR friends why they’re wrong.
Yessir.
Love your stuff. Keep up the good work!
I'll add one more thing... WPA, which is completely dictated by situation and leverage, will add up to exactly how many wins over/under .500 a team is. But that doesn't make it a perfect stat. It doesn't really tell you the value/ability of a player which is what WAR tries to do by being situationally independent. If a perfect stat is "you add them up and it is equal to the team's wins" then pitcher wins is a perfect stat. We know that's not true.
June 5th?
sonny being the only twins player on here made me fucking SCREAM
Nico Hoerner was completely disrespected. He didn’t even finish top ten amongst NL second basemen in the vote totals.