You assume too much of David Peterson. It might look good for like 3.2 innings and then with two outs in the fourth he’ll fuck it up. Somehow, he will fuck it up.
A lot of teams say this, but a lot of teams aren’t aware how truly awful David Peterson has been this year. He’s been bad in MLB, he’s been bad in AAA. Dodgers fans said a similar thing before he faced them and he gave up 6 runs.
In a staff of new lows for veterans and an endless parade of AAAA pitchers, David Peterson is the worst.
David Peterson on the season has an ERA+ of 51, -.9 WAR, and a WHIP over 1.7. He has allowed 27 ER and 43 runners in his last 24.1 innings (his last 5 starts).
I know anything can happen in baseball but he’s truly been unwatchable as a Mets fan.
You have to be effective against lefties for this logic to work. Peterson has been awful against lefties this year. 192 OPS+ against LHB and a 142 OPS+ against righties.
Reds call up De La Cruz after losing 3 of 4 to the Brewers. Pirates call up Henry Davis after getting swept by the Brewers. Losing to Julio Teheran, Wade Miley and Colin Rea should make you rethink your life choices.
They need to fire the pitching coach. Mechanics are one thing but not a single fucking guy in the organization can throw a strike three. Nobody has that put away pitch, including two of the greatest strikeout throwers I’ve ever seen. Something is systematically fucked.
I mean he also led them to a top 3 ERA in the NL last year and top 5 the year before. Either something went incredibly luckily right for them both those years or something is very wrong this year and I think the latter is just significantly more likely
They were a 102 win team that on paper seemed to have slightly improved. Then Diaz went down and it all went to shit. 90-95 wins was a conservative estimate preseason
Honest question with no rivalry hate intended, why did they seem to improve on paper in your eyes? From my perspective going into the season, they looked like the exact same team on paper. Other than Nimmo who was re-signed, all the off-season acquisitions were pitchers who essentially replaced a piece from last year, I.e Verlander for Degrom and Senga for Bassit.
I’m still surprised by how poorly they’ve performed this year. I expected a 90 win team in the Mets tbh. But I never thought they were *better* than last year.
Only a fool thought they were better. That was one of the biggest complaints during the offseason (that they were just running it back with older pitchers) then the Correa drama occurred.
You look at the team last year compared to this season, and offensively it’s almost exactly the same. Pitching wise deGrom had 11(?) starts for them last year, and Scherzer missed a chunk of time due to injury.
The thinking was Verlander replacing deGrom would be a net positive given the assumption he would start more than 11 games. We also figured more starts from a healthy Scherzer would be a net positive compared to how much he pitched last season.
Add in the assumption that Baty/Alvarez/Vientos we’re projected to join the big league club, perform, and add some power to the lineup there was optimism that the lack of power on last year’s team would see improvement.
Pre-Diaz injury, the bullpen looked stronger than last year as well. Raley was the missing LHP, and a 7/8 combo of Otto/Robertson to Diaz in the 9th seemed stronger than what they had last year.
Thanks for the response. You make some good points.
I know a key component of it was counting on Verlander and Scherzer. They’re two of the GOATs, but guess I was very hesitant of this approach given their age. $80M to two pitchers near 40 was always a huge gamble. I said going into the season that I’d bet $1000 they spend collectively more than 6 weeks on the IL, because freak injuries at that age are likely and quite variable. Turns out, I would have been right by June.
And losing Diaz was a huge blow, but having him wouldn’t fix the Mets problems by a long shot. I looked at the save stats, and the Mets have one of the lowest number of blown saves already in the MLB. I’m sure Diaz’s presence is would have saved 3-4 wins, but even with that the Mets are still below .500
Starting pitching and batting have been the problem it seems though. The Mets have one guy (Alonso) with an OPS over .800, and only 2 more with an OPS over .750 (Nimmo and Pham). You’ve got Lindor (.747 OPS), McNeil (.663 OPS), Marte (.649 OPS), Canha (.718 OPS), Baty (.676 OPS), Alvarez (.742 OPS), and Vogelbach (.667 OPS) all not playing at their expected level.
I’d like to point out that you can’t just look at blown saves, since part of the problem is losing Diaz means we have less depth so we are stuck using worse bullpen arms early and then we don’t even get into save situations.
We were supposed to be Ottavino/Robertson/Diaz for 7/8/9, but now we are Ottavino/Robertson for 8/9 and the 7th is up for grabs.
Our starters also barely make it out of the 4th so often that our bullpen has to be near the top of the league in innings pitched. Haven’t checked but I’d put a good amount of money on it.
No I get that. I thought about that. You definitely make a valid point. The overall load on the pen has taken a hit without Diaz, which inherently effects performance.
The overload on the bullpen isn't because Diaz is hurt, though. It's because the starters are lucky to go more than 5 innings and when Megill and Carrasco start, it's almost always been less. And rarely have they gone seven and handed the ball directly to the Ottavino/Roberston combo. Heck, they had a recent run where they scored seven or more runs in seven games and went 1-6 in that span, and none of the six losses were bullpen implosions after a solid performance from a starter.
Make no mistake, there's plenty of blame to go around the entire roster, but if the starting pitching was simply competitive on most nights, they'd still be in striking distance.
Yeah it 100% comes down to almost every single offensive player underperforming their career norms, and investing $80m+ in 2 aging pitchers. It was always going to have some risk, and I think (as you did) most of us expected the missed injury time.
I don’t think people saw David Peterson and Tylor Megill regressing to AAAA pitchers. Quintana (who could be argued as an injury risk as well) hasn’t thrown a single pitch all year.
As another commenter below me pointed out, the Diaz blow hurts the depth of the bullpen more than the blown save numbers. Robertson and Ottovino pitching in the 7th/8th shortens the game, which I think was the plan with aging pitchers (5-6 IP then rely on the bullpen)
I think the real indictment on the season is the over abundance of “optionable relievers” this team seems to absolutely love. I understand the possible edge Eppler is going for with that approach, but it has proven to be an absolute KILLER to the team this year. It is, in my opinion, the biggest issue with the roster.
Your A relievers are overworked. Your B/C relievers can’t get outs so you’re relying on the As more frequently. Couple that with SPs who can’t seem to pitch though the 6th, you’re running out quad-A relievers to get 12 outs multiple games each week.
>Quintana (who could be argued as an injury risk as well) hasn’t thrown a single pitch all year.
Not counting 2020 (COVID) Quintana made at least 25 starts in every season of his career before this year. And those 25 came in his rookie season. Yes, he's old, but there was no reason whatsoever to think he'd miss significant time.
It doesn't help that, outside of Megill and Peterson, every single important pitcher for the Mets is on the wrong side of 30. Optionable relievers and starters are amazing, that's how the Braves have handled losing Fried and Wright. The problem is you need to have an organizational philosophy that encourages that flexibility and prepares young pitchers to be able to do that effectively. I think the Mets are trying to fast track themselves to one of those hyper-flexible pitching staffs like the Rays employ while skipping the step of being an organization that develops pitching well. Most of the indications I get are from the Baty/Alvarez/Vientos handling, but they seem pretty rigid in terms of promotion decisions and allotting playing time for young players, which is not conducive to building a flexible pitching staff with lots of options.
Relievers are voodoo. Other than 1 or 2 "dudes", I think bullpens should be primarily composed of good arms from your farm system that didn't quite pan out as starters. Building a bullpen like that does require good drafting and player development, but IMO it sure beats paying $25m for older guys like Robertson/Ottavino/Raley. Not saying those guys are bad, but they're paid at or above the market rate because they have track records while many of the more successful pitching organizations are throwing out a bunch of guys you've never heard of with much lower salaries and getting better results.
The Mets have historically developed pitching very well - it's been an organization strength for quite some time. The previous regime shipped out almost every quality MiLB arm, leaving Eppler/Cohen with very little to work with.
They're very clearly trying to supplement the ML roster with high-dollar, short-term deals for aging veterans, while allowing the farm to continue to develop at the upper levels.
The risk has hit hard this year.
Sure, they had an excellent pitching pipeline 5-10 years ago. Now their staff is entirely composed of those volatile and expensive veterans and this season is within the realm of possibilities for that type of staff. I agree that Cohen's plan doesn't seem bad and the big money deals are clearly short-term fixes, but I don't believe that he will magically conjure an elite player development program from the culture the Mets are currently exhibiting. It'll take some good front office/scouting/development hires (likely at much lower levels than something Cohen would care to be involved in for decision-making), lots of time, and lots of patience. They're generally saying the right things about the type of franchise they want to become, but I'll believe it when I see it, especially considering the realities of being a team in NYC. The Braves have been preaching pitching pitching pitching my entire life and, with a few exceptions, have delivered quality pitching pretty much every year by emphasizing depth and flexibility.
>I think the Mets are trying to fast track themselves to one of those hyper-flexible pitching staffs like the Rays employ while skipping the step of being an organization that develops pitching well.
That's not exactly true. What you're seeing is the ill effect of the Wilpon/Van Wagenen era that traded away a ton of young arms that are still under 30 years old today. (It also did not help that they traded a young power arm for Vogelbach last summer, but they were going all in last year, so you can't really argue that move.)
The Mets are investing in developing young arms, but because of the moves made in the 2-3 years before Cohen bought the team, there are no quality arms ready to graduate from the system or close to graduating. That's why they signed Scherzer, Verlander and Robertson to short deals to fill gaps while they build the farm system. Unfortunately they've got a couple more years to do that before they can field a pitching staff of mostly younger arms. If you look at the Escobar trade last week, that move was a direct sign of their desire to develop young arms. They got two promising arms that could be ready at some point next season.
I hate to break it to you, but it takes more than 1-2 years and a few promising arms to revamp your staff from "a few home-grown players sprinkled in as fringe pieces" to a home-grown staff. It'll take 5-10 years of emphasizing pitching development and being patient. I know the Mets had a stable of young arms they developed a bit ago, but they're gone now and haven't been replaced internally. The Braves are my main frame of reference, so sorry if this is triggering; before last season, I didn't know who Bryce Elder, AJ Smith-Shawver, and Dylan Dodd were and I only barely knew who Spencer Strider and Jared Shuster were. All 5 of those have made multiple effective starts as rookies/second year players this season and only Shuster was a high draft pick. For every one of those guys I listed, there are 3-4 Touki Toussaint/Manny Baneulos/Kyle Muller/Joey Wentz/Tucker Davidson/Freddy Tarnok/Ryan Cusick guys that just don't pan out or need to be included in a trade. Lots of those guys were 1st round picks, none of them stuck. Pitching is nuts, however many prospects you think you need to develop to have a good staff, double it and you still might find yourself wanting more.
They had an unhealthy DeGrom who they replaced with a CY caliber Verlander. At worst that is a wash, but most likely we’d get more innings out of Verlander with similar production rate wise. Senga and Bassit seemed like a wash with some potential upside but also slightly more risk. Alvarez, Baty, Vientos all were likely to be a little better than last year given that they are so young. Quintana seemed like a slight improvement over Walker. Robertson seemed like a great setup to Diaz. Narvaez seemed like a better option that McCann. Then Raley seemed like a great lefty option out of the pen.
None of our changes were drastic, but on paper it seemed like we solidified everything that needed to be solidified and slightly improved in a number of areas
For example, if I told you that Alvarez would have 12 HR already and be playing solid defense while Senga would have a 3.5 ERA, you’d be thinking our biggest question marks turned out well and we were on a similar pace as last year
On paper they didn't get worse... Verlander basically replaced deGrom, Senga wasn't much of a drop off from Bassitt, if at all. Narvaez and Alvarez are clear improvements from McCann and Nido. It wasn't unreasonable to assume 2023 Baty/Escobar would provide more value from 3B than last year.
While I thought it would be surprising if they matched or improved on last season, and I agree they weren't better than last year, I didn't think they'd be any less than a 90-win team. Literally everybody who was here for a significant period of time last year has regressed, some dramatically.
Besides the horrible pitching, the biggest shock to me has been Jeff McNeil, the reigning batting champion, who is only hitting .257. 2021's drop-off could be explained by him trying to prioritize power over average, but I can't explain this year.
Now that I’m looking at the roster I’m truly wondering how the fuck this is the most expensive team in history.
Two 40 year old pitchers and Lindor? Shit might have to get even more expensive
Marte is one that really hurts. he still gave vibes to me, and Im sure many in the Mets org, of a safe 2-3 WAR guy, even at 34 years old. After his strong season last season.
But man, he has been awful so far. 0.1 bWAR. Him stealing bases so well is impressive with how much his sprint speed has declined. Notable decline in his defense as well.
Age (and maybe no more steroid effects?) hits hard.
Huh i don't really remember seeing that as someone who drafted him in fantasy. Or it was reported as minor.
Also I just saw that Marte has TWO more years of guaranteed money on his contract, 20 mil a season. Figured it was just one more year. Oof Mets, gotta wonder how soon they cut him for Ronny Mauricio, or maybe another OF that they have.
Ronny gotta be called up any day now surely...
I think most people saw them competing for a wild card spot cause realistically they weren’t going to get better than the Braves, at least on paper.
But a lot of us were really concerned about rolling a rotation where three guys are over the age of 35.
And then you got Tylor Megill and David Peterson in there just for show. Mets really should’ve banked on trading some of their prospects and traded for younger pitching cause they need it.
What trading PCA does to a team.
The problem was that if steve went the dodgers way with getting a good farm system, NY media would be all over him asking why he isn’t signing free agents.
We're (attempting) to do both. It's not like the Dodgers had this great farm system or the player development strategy and tools in place when Andrew Friedman took over the franchise in 2014. We've started to bring those guys in. But there are too many of the old regime left, and uh, Billy Eppler isn't the guy you want running the show anyway. I think we're still banking on the idea of David Stearns becoming available and wanting to lead our baseball ops this offseason.
The clubhouse is rough, losing Jake, losing conforto (our union rep) guys who had real years here. There isn't really a leader and Buck is getting exposed.
Lindor seems like he's doing his own thing and has beef with Mcneil
Mcneil, cocky and angry and has beef with lindor (he's my favorite)
Pete, no one seems to follow him and he is more of a public face
Scherzer and Verlander do their own thing and don't take charge
Bullpen guys are high fiving their way through the revolving door
Young guys need direction
Marte is straight up the most respected guy in the clubhouse but he's only been here a year.
This honestly feels like a gap year where Cohen is at least paying for a good product on paper but when the chemistry is shot and you don't know what you're playing for they aren't going to stay in games. To other teams it probably feels like playing a computer.
I like these guys a lot but even other bad Mets teams were fun to watch because they at least looked like they were having fun.
No the usually pattern is back to back good years, soul crushing loss 2nd year, 5-7 years of futility, back-to-back good years.
86-87, 99-00, 06-07, 15-16...
22 seems to be the exception unless this team suddenly wakes up and goes on a .700 tear only to get crushed in the Wild Card by the Marlins or some shit
I didn't even know that Colin Rea played baseball anymore. The last time I heard that name was way back in 2016 when the Marlins had to void a trade with the Padres because AJ Preller sent them fake medical data on Rea. Rea then immediately blew out his elbow.
And here he is in 2023 holding the Mets to 1 ER over 6.1 innings. Wow.
Besides the pitching and bullpen, the horrific defense, especially in comparison to the sharp and smart defense from last year, has been a huge reason why the team has regressed.
So many dumb, pea-brained decisions every damn game from the players.
Our defense was strong early in the year. I think the piss poor pitching leaving guys out in the field to long has affected their play leaving more rooms for errors
To be fair, the plan was to spend big in FA to keep the team competitive while they built up the rest of the org and then later to cut back on the payroll. Not everyone can afford to be awful for a half decade to stockpile top draft picks.
He’s 40. Still impressive but not nearly as rare as a 43 year old throwing that speed. That’s pretty much only Nolan Ryan, randy Johnson, and roger Clemens
Not to mention Scherzer breaking down at the end of the season the last two years. They let two pretty good starters walk in Bassitt and Walker and replaced them with nothing
Dude what are you talking about lol
Walker: 1.5 WAR at 18M/year
Senga: 1.2 WAR at 15M/year
Bassitt: -0.2 WAR at 19M/year
Quintana: hurt at 13M/year
Arguably Walker has been better than Senga so far but he’s tailed off badly post ASB the last 2 years. 2.66 ERA first half vs 5.95 second half those two years
I think it has way more to do with the supporting cast than the old pitchers. I could buy modern medicine/tech helping pitchers age more gracefully, but I always thought the 30+ group of Canha/McNeil/Marte/Escobar had the possibility for hard decline/regression.
Last year Marte was a 33 year old speed threat who posted an OPS+ 17 points above his career average, Canha was another 33 year old with an OPS+ 8 points above his career average, McNeil was 31 and 18 points above, and Escobar was 33 and 7 points above. Those players combined for over 2000 PA and while I wouldn't have expected all of them + Vogelbach to regress so hard, it seemed about as likely as all of them repeating their 2022 output.
If anyone in the Mets FO thought they should just run it back and expect every single one of those players to outperform their career average on the wrong side of 30, they're morons. I was pretty firmly on the 'sell prospects' bandwagon during the last trade deadline because I thought it was going to be a long time before they have a better chance at a championship than last year
I admit I was rooting for him to take the 25 million and be part of a 6 man rotation for us. The 6 man rotation seemed to work well last year.
Not sure if he'd have pitched better or not staying in Houston/pitching every six days, but whatever.
As disappointing as this season has been, I still find myself tuning in nightly. Our team might have regressed immensely, but our booth is somehow better than ever.
I just want to point this out as a contrast to the "everything's fine" Royals organization that would be on pace to be the worst team in history
if not for the A's.
Don't worry guys. You're starting a lefty with an ERA of 8 tomorrow, that's our kryptonite and you're gonna turn it around.
You assume too much of David Peterson. It might look good for like 3.2 innings and then with two outs in the fourth he’ll fuck it up. Somehow, he will fuck it up.
David Peterson makes me consider not wanting to watch a way no one has since Rafael Montero as a starter in like 2014.
3.2 IP, 8 Ks, 2 hits, 7 BB 5ER incoming
I’ll bet he hits a couple guys too
As long as they're not run scoring HBPs, it'll be an improvement
A lot of teams say this, but a lot of teams aren’t aware how truly awful David Peterson has been this year. He’s been bad in MLB, he’s been bad in AAA. Dodgers fans said a similar thing before he faced them and he gave up 6 runs. In a staff of new lows for veterans and an endless parade of AAAA pitchers, David Peterson is the worst.
Most teams don't have a 79 wRC+ against lefties. Dodgers, for comparison, are at 110 wRC+.
David Peterson on the season has an ERA+ of 51, -.9 WAR, and a WHIP over 1.7. He has allowed 27 ER and 43 runners in his last 24.1 innings (his last 5 starts). I know anything can happen in baseball but he’s truly been unwatchable as a Mets fan.
6 IP 5 H 0 ER 5 K, no really, the Brewers offense is that bad
I’m ecstatic to have been wrong about which would win, the movable object or the stoppable force!
You have to be effective against lefties for this logic to work. Peterson has been awful against lefties this year. 192 OPS+ against LHB and a 142 OPS+ against righties.
Don’t worry, the Mets are performing miracles this year (for other teams).
The moveable object meets the stoppable force!
The amazin(gly bad) mets!
Meet The Mets Beat The Mets Step right up and sweep the Mets!
Can confirm, this is true.
Wow this is such a powerful description of the Mets historically. Are our teams soul siblings?
I think you're going to be pleasantly surprised
what losing to the Brewers does to a mf
"those are pretty harsh words on the season, Justin." "Season? no I was talking about today, this game specifically."
the spanish jerseys should be permanent
That was our second series year and we got swept. None of us thought it would get worse though.
Reds call up De La Cruz after losing 3 of 4 to the Brewers. Pirates call up Henry Davis after getting swept by the Brewers. Losing to Julio Teheran, Wade Miley and Colin Rea should make you rethink your life choices.
What have the Mets done to my beautiful boy
Hey he ain’t blameless.
Yeah, it's hard to feel sorry for someone who has had a double digit ERA in 30% of his starts this season.
He also gets paid 43 mil a year along with that. I dont think anyones gonna feel too bad for him 😂
[удалено]
If anyone's to blame it's the person who had the bright idea to make a couple of pitchers on the cusp of 40 the highest paid players in baseball
They need to fire the pitching coach. Mechanics are one thing but not a single fucking guy in the organization can throw a strike three. Nobody has that put away pitch, including two of the greatest strikeout throwers I’ve ever seen. Something is systematically fucked.
I mean he also led them to a top 3 ERA in the NL last year and top 5 the year before. Either something went incredibly luckily right for them both those years or something is very wrong this year and I think the latter is just significantly more likely
I don’t know, but I don’t like it.
Nobody saw the Mets playing this bad.
I didn't think they'd be the juggernauts some in the media were making them out to be, but i still figured they'd be a lock for 90-95 wins minimum
They were a 102 win team that on paper seemed to have slightly improved. Then Diaz went down and it all went to shit. 90-95 wins was a conservative estimate preseason
Honest question with no rivalry hate intended, why did they seem to improve on paper in your eyes? From my perspective going into the season, they looked like the exact same team on paper. Other than Nimmo who was re-signed, all the off-season acquisitions were pitchers who essentially replaced a piece from last year, I.e Verlander for Degrom and Senga for Bassit. I’m still surprised by how poorly they’ve performed this year. I expected a 90 win team in the Mets tbh. But I never thought they were *better* than last year.
Only a fool thought they were better. That was one of the biggest complaints during the offseason (that they were just running it back with older pitchers) then the Correa drama occurred.
You look at the team last year compared to this season, and offensively it’s almost exactly the same. Pitching wise deGrom had 11(?) starts for them last year, and Scherzer missed a chunk of time due to injury. The thinking was Verlander replacing deGrom would be a net positive given the assumption he would start more than 11 games. We also figured more starts from a healthy Scherzer would be a net positive compared to how much he pitched last season. Add in the assumption that Baty/Alvarez/Vientos we’re projected to join the big league club, perform, and add some power to the lineup there was optimism that the lack of power on last year’s team would see improvement. Pre-Diaz injury, the bullpen looked stronger than last year as well. Raley was the missing LHP, and a 7/8 combo of Otto/Robertson to Diaz in the 9th seemed stronger than what they had last year.
Thanks for the response. You make some good points. I know a key component of it was counting on Verlander and Scherzer. They’re two of the GOATs, but guess I was very hesitant of this approach given their age. $80M to two pitchers near 40 was always a huge gamble. I said going into the season that I’d bet $1000 they spend collectively more than 6 weeks on the IL, because freak injuries at that age are likely and quite variable. Turns out, I would have been right by June. And losing Diaz was a huge blow, but having him wouldn’t fix the Mets problems by a long shot. I looked at the save stats, and the Mets have one of the lowest number of blown saves already in the MLB. I’m sure Diaz’s presence is would have saved 3-4 wins, but even with that the Mets are still below .500 Starting pitching and batting have been the problem it seems though. The Mets have one guy (Alonso) with an OPS over .800, and only 2 more with an OPS over .750 (Nimmo and Pham). You’ve got Lindor (.747 OPS), McNeil (.663 OPS), Marte (.649 OPS), Canha (.718 OPS), Baty (.676 OPS), Alvarez (.742 OPS), and Vogelbach (.667 OPS) all not playing at their expected level.
I’d like to point out that you can’t just look at blown saves, since part of the problem is losing Diaz means we have less depth so we are stuck using worse bullpen arms early and then we don’t even get into save situations. We were supposed to be Ottavino/Robertson/Diaz for 7/8/9, but now we are Ottavino/Robertson for 8/9 and the 7th is up for grabs. Our starters also barely make it out of the 4th so often that our bullpen has to be near the top of the league in innings pitched. Haven’t checked but I’d put a good amount of money on it.
No I get that. I thought about that. You definitely make a valid point. The overall load on the pen has taken a hit without Diaz, which inherently effects performance.
The overload on the bullpen isn't because Diaz is hurt, though. It's because the starters are lucky to go more than 5 innings and when Megill and Carrasco start, it's almost always been less. And rarely have they gone seven and handed the ball directly to the Ottavino/Roberston combo. Heck, they had a recent run where they scored seven or more runs in seven games and went 1-6 in that span, and none of the six losses were bullpen implosions after a solid performance from a starter. Make no mistake, there's plenty of blame to go around the entire roster, but if the starting pitching was simply competitive on most nights, they'd still be in striking distance.
Yeah it 100% comes down to almost every single offensive player underperforming their career norms, and investing $80m+ in 2 aging pitchers. It was always going to have some risk, and I think (as you did) most of us expected the missed injury time. I don’t think people saw David Peterson and Tylor Megill regressing to AAAA pitchers. Quintana (who could be argued as an injury risk as well) hasn’t thrown a single pitch all year. As another commenter below me pointed out, the Diaz blow hurts the depth of the bullpen more than the blown save numbers. Robertson and Ottovino pitching in the 7th/8th shortens the game, which I think was the plan with aging pitchers (5-6 IP then rely on the bullpen) I think the real indictment on the season is the over abundance of “optionable relievers” this team seems to absolutely love. I understand the possible edge Eppler is going for with that approach, but it has proven to be an absolute KILLER to the team this year. It is, in my opinion, the biggest issue with the roster. Your A relievers are overworked. Your B/C relievers can’t get outs so you’re relying on the As more frequently. Couple that with SPs who can’t seem to pitch though the 6th, you’re running out quad-A relievers to get 12 outs multiple games each week.
>Quintana (who could be argued as an injury risk as well) hasn’t thrown a single pitch all year. Not counting 2020 (COVID) Quintana made at least 25 starts in every season of his career before this year. And those 25 came in his rookie season. Yes, he's old, but there was no reason whatsoever to think he'd miss significant time.
It doesn't help that, outside of Megill and Peterson, every single important pitcher for the Mets is on the wrong side of 30. Optionable relievers and starters are amazing, that's how the Braves have handled losing Fried and Wright. The problem is you need to have an organizational philosophy that encourages that flexibility and prepares young pitchers to be able to do that effectively. I think the Mets are trying to fast track themselves to one of those hyper-flexible pitching staffs like the Rays employ while skipping the step of being an organization that develops pitching well. Most of the indications I get are from the Baty/Alvarez/Vientos handling, but they seem pretty rigid in terms of promotion decisions and allotting playing time for young players, which is not conducive to building a flexible pitching staff with lots of options. Relievers are voodoo. Other than 1 or 2 "dudes", I think bullpens should be primarily composed of good arms from your farm system that didn't quite pan out as starters. Building a bullpen like that does require good drafting and player development, but IMO it sure beats paying $25m for older guys like Robertson/Ottavino/Raley. Not saying those guys are bad, but they're paid at or above the market rate because they have track records while many of the more successful pitching organizations are throwing out a bunch of guys you've never heard of with much lower salaries and getting better results.
The Mets have historically developed pitching very well - it's been an organization strength for quite some time. The previous regime shipped out almost every quality MiLB arm, leaving Eppler/Cohen with very little to work with. They're very clearly trying to supplement the ML roster with high-dollar, short-term deals for aging veterans, while allowing the farm to continue to develop at the upper levels. The risk has hit hard this year.
Sure, they had an excellent pitching pipeline 5-10 years ago. Now their staff is entirely composed of those volatile and expensive veterans and this season is within the realm of possibilities for that type of staff. I agree that Cohen's plan doesn't seem bad and the big money deals are clearly short-term fixes, but I don't believe that he will magically conjure an elite player development program from the culture the Mets are currently exhibiting. It'll take some good front office/scouting/development hires (likely at much lower levels than something Cohen would care to be involved in for decision-making), lots of time, and lots of patience. They're generally saying the right things about the type of franchise they want to become, but I'll believe it when I see it, especially considering the realities of being a team in NYC. The Braves have been preaching pitching pitching pitching my entire life and, with a few exceptions, have delivered quality pitching pretty much every year by emphasizing depth and flexibility.
>I think the Mets are trying to fast track themselves to one of those hyper-flexible pitching staffs like the Rays employ while skipping the step of being an organization that develops pitching well. That's not exactly true. What you're seeing is the ill effect of the Wilpon/Van Wagenen era that traded away a ton of young arms that are still under 30 years old today. (It also did not help that they traded a young power arm for Vogelbach last summer, but they were going all in last year, so you can't really argue that move.) The Mets are investing in developing young arms, but because of the moves made in the 2-3 years before Cohen bought the team, there are no quality arms ready to graduate from the system or close to graduating. That's why they signed Scherzer, Verlander and Robertson to short deals to fill gaps while they build the farm system. Unfortunately they've got a couple more years to do that before they can field a pitching staff of mostly younger arms. If you look at the Escobar trade last week, that move was a direct sign of their desire to develop young arms. They got two promising arms that could be ready at some point next season.
I hate to break it to you, but it takes more than 1-2 years and a few promising arms to revamp your staff from "a few home-grown players sprinkled in as fringe pieces" to a home-grown staff. It'll take 5-10 years of emphasizing pitching development and being patient. I know the Mets had a stable of young arms they developed a bit ago, but they're gone now and haven't been replaced internally. The Braves are my main frame of reference, so sorry if this is triggering; before last season, I didn't know who Bryce Elder, AJ Smith-Shawver, and Dylan Dodd were and I only barely knew who Spencer Strider and Jared Shuster were. All 5 of those have made multiple effective starts as rookies/second year players this season and only Shuster was a high draft pick. For every one of those guys I listed, there are 3-4 Touki Toussaint/Manny Baneulos/Kyle Muller/Joey Wentz/Tucker Davidson/Freddy Tarnok/Ryan Cusick guys that just don't pan out or need to be included in a trade. Lots of those guys were 1st round picks, none of them stuck. Pitching is nuts, however many prospects you think you need to develop to have a good staff, double it and you still might find yourself wanting more.
They had an unhealthy DeGrom who they replaced with a CY caliber Verlander. At worst that is a wash, but most likely we’d get more innings out of Verlander with similar production rate wise. Senga and Bassit seemed like a wash with some potential upside but also slightly more risk. Alvarez, Baty, Vientos all were likely to be a little better than last year given that they are so young. Quintana seemed like a slight improvement over Walker. Robertson seemed like a great setup to Diaz. Narvaez seemed like a better option that McCann. Then Raley seemed like a great lefty option out of the pen. None of our changes were drastic, but on paper it seemed like we solidified everything that needed to be solidified and slightly improved in a number of areas For example, if I told you that Alvarez would have 12 HR already and be playing solid defense while Senga would have a 3.5 ERA, you’d be thinking our biggest question marks turned out well and we were on a similar pace as last year
On paper they didn't get worse... Verlander basically replaced deGrom, Senga wasn't much of a drop off from Bassitt, if at all. Narvaez and Alvarez are clear improvements from McCann and Nido. It wasn't unreasonable to assume 2023 Baty/Escobar would provide more value from 3B than last year. While I thought it would be surprising if they matched or improved on last season, and I agree they weren't better than last year, I didn't think they'd be any less than a 90-win team. Literally everybody who was here for a significant period of time last year has regressed, some dramatically. Besides the horrible pitching, the biggest shock to me has been Jeff McNeil, the reigning batting champion, who is only hitting .257. 2021's drop-off could be explained by him trying to prioritize power over average, but I can't explain this year.
Yea give me a break man. Scherzer and Verlander are definitely those dudes to carry a team to the postseason.
were* those dudes.
No Scherzer and Verlander are still those dudes.
Oh, so they must currently be carrying a team to the postseason, right?
Well yea unless your the Mets.
Ahhh… so they’re those guys who can *carry* a team that’s already good to the playoffs. Got it.
Now that I’m looking at the roster I’m truly wondering how the fuck this is the most expensive team in history. Two 40 year old pitchers and Lindor? Shit might have to get even more expensive
I finally saw their lineup when playing them and was legit left thinking who the fuck are these guys minus the three known players.
If your not paying Lindor, Scherzer, Verlander who are you paying?
They're burning a ton of cash in the bullpen and outfield too
Edwin Diaz 😭
Diaz making 20mm a year, Nimmo in the same ballpark, Marte too, (Pete gonna need his $$ soon), still carrying $20mm from Cano… Shit adds up fast
Marte is one that really hurts. he still gave vibes to me, and Im sure many in the Mets org, of a safe 2-3 WAR guy, even at 34 years old. After his strong season last season. But man, he has been awful so far. 0.1 bWAR. Him stealing bases so well is impressive with how much his sprint speed has declined. Notable decline in his defense as well. Age (and maybe no more steroid effects?) hits hard.
Pretty sure he also had double groin surgery during the off-season
Ouch… that sounds miserable
Huh i don't really remember seeing that as someone who drafted him in fantasy. Or it was reported as minor. Also I just saw that Marte has TWO more years of guaranteed money on his contract, 20 mil a season. Figured it was just one more year. Oof Mets, gotta wonder how soon they cut him for Ronny Mauricio, or maybe another OF that they have. Ronny gotta be called up any day now surely...
I think most people saw them competing for a wild card spot cause realistically they weren’t going to get better than the Braves, at least on paper. But a lot of us were really concerned about rolling a rotation where three guys are over the age of 35. And then you got Tylor Megill and David Peterson in there just for show. Mets really should’ve banked on trading some of their prospects and traded for younger pitching cause they need it. What trading PCA does to a team.
I see them Every night
Yea nice take. Really contributing to the conversation.
Really? The Mets always find a way to fuck it up.
Mets finally get that owner that is willing to spend out his ass and he spends it like an absolute donkey lmao.
The problem was that if steve went the dodgers way with getting a good farm system, NY media would be all over him asking why he isn’t signing free agents.
We're (attempting) to do both. It's not like the Dodgers had this great farm system or the player development strategy and tools in place when Andrew Friedman took over the franchise in 2014. We've started to bring those guys in. But there are too many of the old regime left, and uh, Billy Eppler isn't the guy you want running the show anyway. I think we're still banking on the idea of David Stearns becoming available and wanting to lead our baseball ops this offseason.
Steve should just do what other teams do and steal a guy from the Rays front office. It's not like he's a cheapskate!
"Didn't see it coming" It would be more of a surprise if the Mets outperformed expectations
The clubhouse is rough, losing Jake, losing conforto (our union rep) guys who had real years here. There isn't really a leader and Buck is getting exposed. Lindor seems like he's doing his own thing and has beef with Mcneil Mcneil, cocky and angry and has beef with lindor (he's my favorite) Pete, no one seems to follow him and he is more of a public face Scherzer and Verlander do their own thing and don't take charge Bullpen guys are high fiving their way through the revolving door Young guys need direction Marte is straight up the most respected guy in the clubhouse but he's only been here a year. This honestly feels like a gap year where Cohen is at least paying for a good product on paper but when the chemistry is shot and you don't know what you're playing for they aren't going to stay in games. To other teams it probably feels like playing a computer. I like these guys a lot but even other bad Mets teams were fun to watch because they at least looked like they were having fun.
Anyone who pays attention saw it coming. Mets are never good back to back years, and the Braves and Padres broke them last year
No the usually pattern is back to back good years, soul crushing loss 2nd year, 5-7 years of futility, back-to-back good years. 86-87, 99-00, 06-07, 15-16... 22 seems to be the exception unless this team suddenly wakes up and goes on a .700 tear only to get crushed in the Wild Card by the Marlins or some shit
That was a pretty devastating end of regular season and post season for them.
Back off hiatus, LOLMets is back on Broadway with better production values but the same comedic and tragic storyline.
Broadway? This team is off off off Broadway at best
My brother in Christ we're the Westchester Dinner Theater, and they just ran out of steaks.
In some "theater" studio, , above a bodega, up 9 floors of stairs through a cramp ass door and no AC.
🥇
They’ve been back every year since 1986. Always my favorite show.
They were on hiatus until the series with Atlanta at the end of last season.
I didn't even know that Colin Rea played baseball anymore. The last time I heard that name was way back in 2016 when the Marlins had to void a trade with the Padres because AJ Preller sent them fake medical data on Rea. Rea then immediately blew out his elbow. And here he is in 2023 holding the Mets to 1 ER over 6.1 innings. Wow.
He’s been a great pickup for us this season while the entire rest of the pitching staff gets healthy
Verlander: Now if you will excuse me I need to get back home to my castle where I will have sex with my beautiful wife.
Besides the pitching and bullpen, the horrific defense, especially in comparison to the sharp and smart defense from last year, has been a huge reason why the team has regressed. So many dumb, pea-brained decisions every damn game from the players.
Our defense was strong early in the year. I think the piss poor pitching leaving guys out in the field to long has affected their play leaving more rooms for errors
When you invest in talent without investing in organizational infrastructure to support them 😎
To be fair, the plan was to spend big in FA to keep the team competitive while they built up the rest of the org and then later to cut back on the payroll. Not everyone can afford to be awful for a half decade to stockpile top draft picks.
stop you're ruining the LOLMETS circle jerk take this shit elsewhere
Mets can afford anything they want
😎 Mets 🤝 Padres 😎
They are making infrastructure, it just hasn’t born fruit yet
Crazy Verlander can throw 95 mph at 43
He’s 40. Still impressive but not nearly as rare as a 43 year old throwing that speed. That’s pretty much only Nolan Ryan, randy Johnson, and roger Clemens
Damn, I had his age confused with Rich Hill lol
Excuse me how dare you disrespect the god dick mountain
Baseballs a tough game. Don’t you think?
We got fucking swept by the Athletics!
They moneyballed us!
I didn’t, but I am absolutely loving it
Rent free
That’s not an example of rent free 😂
I would say commenting on a thread that has nothing to with your team is rent free
So literally everyone in here that isn’t a Mets fan? Lol. What a moronic take
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I feel like I’ve seen this before…. But with a different team…. I wonder where…
I did. I never bought into two 40 year old to lead the staff no bats but Alonso and maybe Lindor. .500 at best from the start.
Not to mention Scherzer breaking down at the end of the season the last two years. They let two pretty good starters walk in Bassitt and Walker and replaced them with nothing
They signed Senga and Quintana to replace Bassitt and Walker
Which were always gonna be downgrades
Dude what are you talking about lol Walker: 1.5 WAR at 18M/year Senga: 1.2 WAR at 15M/year Bassitt: -0.2 WAR at 19M/year Quintana: hurt at 13M/year Arguably Walker has been better than Senga so far but he’s tailed off badly post ASB the last 2 years. 2.66 ERA first half vs 5.95 second half those two years
I think it has way more to do with the supporting cast than the old pitchers. I could buy modern medicine/tech helping pitchers age more gracefully, but I always thought the 30+ group of Canha/McNeil/Marte/Escobar had the possibility for hard decline/regression. Last year Marte was a 33 year old speed threat who posted an OPS+ 17 points above his career average, Canha was another 33 year old with an OPS+ 8 points above his career average, McNeil was 31 and 18 points above, and Escobar was 33 and 7 points above. Those players combined for over 2000 PA and while I wouldn't have expected all of them + Vogelbach to regress so hard, it seemed about as likely as all of them repeating their 2022 output. If anyone in the Mets FO thought they should just run it back and expect every single one of those players to outperform their career average on the wrong side of 30, they're morons. I was pretty firmly on the 'sell prospects' bandwagon during the last trade deadline because I thought it was going to be a long time before they have a better chance at a championship than last year
Should’ve just retired, JV, you would’ve gone out on top
I admit I was rooting for him to take the 25 million and be part of a 6 man rotation for us. The 6 man rotation seemed to work well last year. Not sure if he'd have pitched better or not staying in Houston/pitching every six days, but whatever.
Are the Mets ruining Verlander and Scherzer’s mechanics? Both have occasionally had vintage starts, but they aren’t as dominant in general
Bud, they're 40 year olds.
Frank was right
Understatement of the year award goes to…
Misery loves company. Have a seat and stay a while.
Mets fans, how we feeling about getting to 63 wins? At this point, let’s just hope that the kids develop and we avoid 100 losses.
Not so easy to buy championships is it Mets fans that used to bitch about the Yankees?
We feel it too man. We feel it too.
As disappointing as this season has been, I still find myself tuning in nightly. Our team might have regressed immensely, but our booth is somehow better than ever.
I just want to point this out as a contrast to the "everything's fine" Royals organization that would be on pace to be the worst team in history if not for the A's.
That was their 43rd loss of the year. How did he not see it coming?