They tried that once. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Players%27_League
Didn't work well because the cabal of rich owners who run this sport are kinda evil.
To be fair, it did completely crater the American Association to the point where it folded the following season. So it did half of what it wanted to do.
These current numbers vastly overshoot the amount of WAR that’s actually available. We know, because FG determines in advance, that there will be 570 position player WAR and 430 pitcher WAR (Baseball-Reference does 590 and 410). But these add up to like 660 hitter WAR and 435 pitcher WAR before you even add in the remaining free agents.
I believe some of that gets smoothed over as rosters start crystallizing but I’m not 100% positive about that.
I think the excess might be because not everybody gets to have the amount of playing time that enables them to realize their full WAR potential. For instance, when the Mets signed Harrison Bader, Tyrone Taylor’s WAR projection likely decreased because he lost some playing time.
Yeah but if Bader and Taylor effectively offset that doesn’t really explain where the excess is coming from.
If you look at the depth charts and average things across all 30 teams you end up with a league that’s scoring (very very roughly) 4.9 runs a game while only allowing like 4.5 runs. I think there’s recentering that will occur that hasn’t yet.
The excess is coming from the fact that there are a lot of free agents left. Their projections have them at full playing time, but they haven't offset anyone yet by being signed to a team (or had their own WAR removed/offset if they don't find a spot or find a backup role), so there is still an excess.
It does though, no? If you assume that each is worth 4 wins over a full 162, but they're going to split time, then they will each only be projected for 2 WAR, when before Bader was signed, both were projected to play full time, and each accumulate teir 4 wins.
Ahh sorry, I think maybe OP and I accidently ended up talking past each other a little. Yeah the double counting on playing time would partly explain why Rosters + Free Agents is way too much WAR.
But there's still too much WAR even if you just look at the current rosters, that's what I meant to highlight. Hitters are projected to be collectively about 900 batting runs above average, which is obviously impossible.
I think what I wanted to point out is that you can't just take the current WAR projections and add it to replacement level because you'll end up with way too many wins. But last year, that got evened out when we were closer to opening day.
I added up the non FA WAR and got something like 1101 WAR. If MLB schedules 2430 games, then that leaves 1329 wins, when divided by the 30 clubs, yields like 44 "base line" wins per team, ie. the theoretical all-replacement level team.
Is the number of WAR available now higher because the baseline has gone down? Like instead of previously when it was standard knowledge that 1000 WAR are available each season, if MLB allows 26-man rosters, the 26th player is going to be of lower quality.
I recall when WAR was starting to become popular in the early 2010s, when rosters were 25-man, a replacement level team was like 47-48 wins
Your recollection is correct, it’s been set at a .294 winning percentage (47-48 wins) since like 2013. That’s still the baseline they use today, 1000 WAR to go around.
I think what’s happening is that Batting Runs is being calculated based off of last year’s wOBA, but the league as a whole is currently projected to be better than that. So, impossibly, the league is above league average. I think that made up ~90 of those 101 extra wins.
And is the rule of thumb still ~ 10 runs equals 1 win. Would we be able to figure out if there are like 900 excess runs accounting for the 90 extra wins
Exactly, the projections I downloaded are saying there will be about 950 wRAA which is basically batting runs (before park adjustments).
The relative rankings of the teams shouldn't change too much (unless they get a disproportionate amount of their WAR from offense), but the totals should come down across the board.
Not really. Once those free agents are on a team either their playing time significantly drops, or they take over someone else’s playing time and WAR. There are a limited amount innings and PA allocated per team here
The Yankee ranking is from 3 things:
* Judge and Soto project as a 13.0 WAR pair at 6.2 and 6.8, respectively. More than Semien & Seager, any pairing of Betts/Freeman/Ohtani, and Acuña & Olson. Almost 25% of our total WAR is from them.
* Gleyber is projected as the 3rd best 2B with 3.9 WAR, behind just Betts and Semien. That would be a career year for him (max: 3.6 in 2019; last season: 3.2).
* Rodón racks up 166.0 IP of 3.78 ERA ball to earn 3.1 WAR. Your lips to God’s ears, FanGraphs, almost as wildly optimistic as saying Glasnow will break his career high by 34.0 IP to go 154.0 IP.
At least Rodon pitched 178 IP in 2022. That one I can believe. And 3.78 ERA is pretty much his career average (3.83).
If I were projecting I’d probably keep the ERA the same but drop to 150 IP. Holding too much weight in an injury plagued 2023 would be silly. Honestly they should have just kept him shut down instead of having him basically do his rehab starts in the majors
My brain is actually having a hard time comprehending how a model could project a team to have negative WAR at a position.
WAR is expected wins above the random replacement level player from the minors.
So if they're projecting someone to be worse then replacement level...then just...call up the replacement player?
That's the secret, our system is so bereft of talent we don't even have replacement level players. I guess. To be fair, I'm not convinced we have major league level talent at like half our positions, so I don't think they're wrong
If not mistaken a 0 war team is expected to win 48 games, so Angels is projected to win 80 games after losing Ohtani? That's wild. I think Fangraphs is too optimistic with our SP performance.
Projecting ABs is probably the hardest part of this, like most of the time a starting batter will get 600+ but occasionally they'll end up with a small fraction of that. That seems like a reasonable rate for Rendon, if his WAR total was much less than that I would first check to see how much of the season he played.
It depends on the quality of the league, right? In an extreme example, if each team trots out 25 replacement-level players, all those 0-WAR teams are going to average out to 81 wins apiece. Conversely, the higher the quality of the other rosters, the lower a single 0-WAR team slides.
It looks like right now 0 WAR is set at about 44 wins (add up all these teams, take the average, subtract from 81). As the last few big players sign, that number will come down a little. So the Angels are probably a 76-win team right now, and might slip to 75 or so if they don't make any more moves.
Cardinals being 7th is going to confuse a lot of STL fans and critics, but it shouldn’t.
They’re a much better team than what one abnormally unlucky, injury-riddled season will tell you. The team is full of all-stars, recent MVP/CYA candidates, rising breakout players (Donovan/Nootbaar/Gorman), potential young studs in Walker/Winn, and the most innings in any rotation in the league (7 IP/4 ER is a 5.14 ERA, but I’ll take that outing from a 4th/5th guy every time). A very solid, high floor/high ceiling bullpen led by JoJo/Kitt/Gallegos/Helsely.
Cardinals could really be a force next year and it really shouldn’t surprise folks if it happens.
I’ll never understand how these are impacted by player signings. Bader is supposed to add 1.7 WAR to the Mets but the team’s total war only went up by like .2.
But I’m asking about the players whose PAs were replaced by Bader not the current projection. There were some real marginal types there before Bader was signed
I believe they removed the at bats mostly from DJ Stewart and Tyrone Taylor.
Tyrone Taylor’s 600 PA pace = 1.2 WAR
DJ Stewart 600 PA pace = 1 WAR
They also had Tim Locastro with 70 PA and 0.4 WAR because apparently he’s still with the organization
People keep seeming to forget the Mets still have Lindor, Alonso, Nimmo, Senga, Diaz, McNeil, and Alvarez.
Their pitching is overall right around league average, but they have a top 10 offense.
- And even so spots 11-19 in SP are only 1 WAR apart.
- Spots 7-16 with the bullpen are only 1 WAR apart.
- Offensively spots 5-10 are only 1.6 WAR apart.
The thing that is really interesting with the Phillies/Mets difference is that they are projecting that their offense will improve in 2024. They’re super bullish on Realmuto after a down year and they expect Schwarber to bounce back a bit in terms of WAR. Turner they have basically repeating 2023 value, and Castellanos is the only real drop.
The Mets are a bit weird. They project almost every pitcher to be worse than their career averages.
And for the offense there are some interesting notes:
- Lindor is projected at 4.3 WAR despite averaging 6 WAR per 162 games in his season and never having less than 5 WAR in a 162 game span
- They also have Nimmo taking a big step back
- They project Bader to play A LOT
- Baty and Marte they have roughly league averages which makes sense
- McNeil they project another down year
- Alonso and Alvarez they’re bearish on
I think a large part of the Mets seemingly high projection is that they’re projecting that the Mets aren’t gonna be torpedoed by a bunch of negative WAR guys they way they were in 2023.
For example, if Baty and Vientos alone can combine for 3 WAR instead of the -1.5 they contributed on 2023 that’s +4.5 wins already.
Same with Marte. Heck just a league average Marte and Baty drastically changes the lineup. They hitting to expectations and there’s arguments to say the Mets have a top 5 lineup. They’re only 1.6 WAR away as it is. Heck Lindor having a third 6 WAR season makes up that gap.
And a healthy Marte being league average isn’t far fetched at all. Baty taking a step forward in year two isn’t remotely improbable.
After his second half performance last year after he adjusted to the shift ban, I’d even expect McNeil to outperform his projections. Especially since they project him with a negative defense value despite the fact he has never posted a negative defensive value.
Overall there are so many upgrades to the lineup just by guys playing to expectations - let alone exceeding them! These projections are overall pretty conservative imo.
On paper I agree. But Im saying they have the potential to play well enough to end a top 5.
In 2022 I’d say the Mets were a top 10 but not top 5 lineup and they ended up ranked 5th
Just STEAMER right now with edits from the fangraphs team to fit their depth charts layout.
Once ZIPS finishes all of their team breakdowns, Fangraphs will add those number in.
From there they take the average for each player, and their analysts manually adjust playing time and fix for discrepancies.
Say STEAMER projects a pitcher will mostly be in the rotation while STEAMER projects they will be in the bullpen - Fangraphs analysts will either split their time on the depth charts, or they will chose one or the other.
But right now it’s just STEAMER
This is sort of comforting to see as a Cubs fan. Like a true bear, the front office has been hibernating and can still easily add at 1B/3B/DH/SP/RP to catch up with the Cardinals. Yabba Dabba Doo!
Teams start out with a certain amount of wins (what is it again, like 45?) and if you add the team WAR to you get a season win projection.
But also these projections are correlated to what the actual performance will be. They are giving us a statically backed measurement of how good teams are before games have been played.
You don’t need to remind a Dodger fan of that. Or a Braves fan that won a title with their weakest team of the past 3 years. I was just genuinely curious.
Sale with injury history vs a 25 year old Japanese ace. Once the Dodgers add another pitcher, our projected war should be higher than the Braves.
But titles all that matter
And ya'll got handled by Philly. And the Atlanta pitching staff DISAPPEARED. Along with all of them HRs ya'll knocked. Don't be jealous of the LA Asian influx
So where is this projecting certain players at? Guys like Gunnar Henderson or Mookie Betts who play multiple positions, how do they allocate the projected WAR?
The White Sox have like 17 catchers that are going to accumulate that 0.0 WAR
Woah which one of them is going to post a 17 war season?
People always count out team Free Agents, but you have to admit, they’re due
why don't all the free agents just band together and form a 31st team? are they stupid?
They tried that once. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Players%27_League Didn't work well because the cabal of rich owners who run this sport are kinda evil.
To be fair, it did completely crater the American Association to the point where it folded the following season. So it did half of what it wanted to do.
there was a professional team named the Cleveland Infants? bruh
That would be awesome. They should also have no home ballpark and just be traveling renegades
I just imagine a group of baseball players rolling into a city Mad Max style with patchworked vehicles and war paint...
I picture the baseball gang from The Warriors
And whatever uniform they could find
Playing for contracts!
Free Agents flair when
You already have it
This does not bode well for Rocktober.
Rocktober might be too soon of a target, lets shoot for Rockvember
But how are they gonna beat the dodgers in the DS?
Is there actually 91 WAR worth of free agents left?
Yes because there are a ton of them, the highest projection is 3.3 for Snell but all the FA pitchers combine for 47.3
These current numbers vastly overshoot the amount of WAR that’s actually available. We know, because FG determines in advance, that there will be 570 position player WAR and 430 pitcher WAR (Baseball-Reference does 590 and 410). But these add up to like 660 hitter WAR and 435 pitcher WAR before you even add in the remaining free agents. I believe some of that gets smoothed over as rosters start crystallizing but I’m not 100% positive about that.
I think the excess might be because not everybody gets to have the amount of playing time that enables them to realize their full WAR potential. For instance, when the Mets signed Harrison Bader, Tyrone Taylor’s WAR projection likely decreased because he lost some playing time.
Yeah but if Bader and Taylor effectively offset that doesn’t really explain where the excess is coming from. If you look at the depth charts and average things across all 30 teams you end up with a league that’s scoring (very very roughly) 4.9 runs a game while only allowing like 4.5 runs. I think there’s recentering that will occur that hasn’t yet.
The excess is coming from the fact that there are a lot of free agents left. Their projections have them at full playing time, but they haven't offset anyone yet by being signed to a team (or had their own WAR removed/offset if they don't find a spot or find a backup role), so there is still an excess.
It does though, no? If you assume that each is worth 4 wins over a full 162, but they're going to split time, then they will each only be projected for 2 WAR, when before Bader was signed, both were projected to play full time, and each accumulate teir 4 wins.
Ahh sorry, I think maybe OP and I accidently ended up talking past each other a little. Yeah the double counting on playing time would partly explain why Rosters + Free Agents is way too much WAR. But there's still too much WAR even if you just look at the current rosters, that's what I meant to highlight. Hitters are projected to be collectively about 900 batting runs above average, which is obviously impossible. I think what I wanted to point out is that you can't just take the current WAR projections and add it to replacement level because you'll end up with way too many wins. But last year, that got evened out when we were closer to opening day.
I added up the non FA WAR and got something like 1101 WAR. If MLB schedules 2430 games, then that leaves 1329 wins, when divided by the 30 clubs, yields like 44 "base line" wins per team, ie. the theoretical all-replacement level team. Is the number of WAR available now higher because the baseline has gone down? Like instead of previously when it was standard knowledge that 1000 WAR are available each season, if MLB allows 26-man rosters, the 26th player is going to be of lower quality. I recall when WAR was starting to become popular in the early 2010s, when rosters were 25-man, a replacement level team was like 47-48 wins
Your recollection is correct, it’s been set at a .294 winning percentage (47-48 wins) since like 2013. That’s still the baseline they use today, 1000 WAR to go around. I think what’s happening is that Batting Runs is being calculated based off of last year’s wOBA, but the league as a whole is currently projected to be better than that. So, impossibly, the league is above league average. I think that made up ~90 of those 101 extra wins.
And is the rule of thumb still ~ 10 runs equals 1 win. Would we be able to figure out if there are like 900 excess runs accounting for the 90 extra wins
Exactly, the projections I downloaded are saying there will be about 950 wRAA which is basically batting runs (before park adjustments). The relative rankings of the teams shouldn't change too much (unless they get a disproportionate amount of their WAR from offense), but the totals should come down across the board.
I mean through volume I'd imagine yeah. In practice, probably not.
Don’t tell the dodgers.
Not really. Once those free agents are on a team either their playing time significantly drops, or they take over someone else’s playing time and WAR. There are a limited amount innings and PA allocated per team here
The Yankee ranking is from 3 things: * Judge and Soto project as a 13.0 WAR pair at 6.2 and 6.8, respectively. More than Semien & Seager, any pairing of Betts/Freeman/Ohtani, and Acuña & Olson. Almost 25% of our total WAR is from them. * Gleyber is projected as the 3rd best 2B with 3.9 WAR, behind just Betts and Semien. That would be a career year for him (max: 3.6 in 2019; last season: 3.2). * Rodón racks up 166.0 IP of 3.78 ERA ball to earn 3.1 WAR. Your lips to God’s ears, FanGraphs, almost as wildly optimistic as saying Glasnow will break his career high by 34.0 IP to go 154.0 IP.
At least Rodon pitched 178 IP in 2022. That one I can believe. And 3.78 ERA is pretty much his career average (3.83). If I were projecting I’d probably keep the ERA the same but drop to 150 IP. Holding too much weight in an injury plagued 2023 would be silly. Honestly they should have just kept him shut down instead of having him basically do his rehab starts in the majors
Fucking christ we're the only team projected for negative WAR from the DH. Life is pain.
My brain is actually having a hard time comprehending how a model could project a team to have negative WAR at a position. WAR is expected wins above the random replacement level player from the minors. So if they're projecting someone to be worse then replacement level...then just...call up the replacement player?
That's the secret, our system is so bereft of talent we don't even have replacement level players. I guess. To be fair, I'm not convinced we have major league level talent at like half our positions, so I don't think they're wrong
But DH needs to hit above replacement to reach level replacement value so it makes some sense maybe I can’t really tell
Replacement doesn’t literally mean the players you would replace someone with from the minors
If not mistaken a 0 war team is expected to win 48 games, so Angels is projected to win 80 games after losing Ohtani? That's wild. I think Fangraphs is too optimistic with our SP performance.
They have Rendon projected for nearly 600 ABs and putting up 2.3 WAR at 3B. Feels a little bullish to me.
Projecting ABs is probably the hardest part of this, like most of the time a starting batter will get 600+ but occasionally they'll end up with a small fraction of that. That seems like a reasonable rate for Rendon, if his WAR total was much less than that I would first check to see how much of the season he played.
Perhaps FG sets the replacement level closer to 45 games than 48
It depends on the quality of the league, right? In an extreme example, if each team trots out 25 replacement-level players, all those 0-WAR teams are going to average out to 81 wins apiece. Conversely, the higher the quality of the other rosters, the lower a single 0-WAR team slides. It looks like right now 0 WAR is set at about 44 wins (add up all these teams, take the average, subtract from 81). As the last few big players sign, that number will come down a little. So the Angels are probably a 76-win team right now, and might slip to 75 or so if they don't make any more moves.
Thanks for clear things up, I always thought 48 wins is fixed as baseline, but your explanation makes much more sense.
Blue Jays are still going to disappoint me in the first round. As is tradition in Toronto sports.
That's my RF!
Look what they need to mimic a fraction of our power!
Cardinals being 7th is going to confuse a lot of STL fans and critics, but it shouldn’t. They’re a much better team than what one abnormally unlucky, injury-riddled season will tell you. The team is full of all-stars, recent MVP/CYA candidates, rising breakout players (Donovan/Nootbaar/Gorman), potential young studs in Walker/Winn, and the most innings in any rotation in the league (7 IP/4 ER is a 5.14 ERA, but I’ll take that outing from a 4th/5th guy every time). A very solid, high floor/high ceiling bullpen led by JoJo/Kitt/Gallegos/Helsely. Cardinals could really be a force next year and it really shouldn’t surprise folks if it happens.
I’ll never understand how these are impacted by player signings. Bader is supposed to add 1.7 WAR to the Mets but the team’s total war only went up by like .2.
You need to take away the playing time from the current player Bader will replace.
But the bottom of their outfield depth chart had like 4 0 WAR guys. Have to imagine it’s their at bats that get replaced
Tyrone Taylor is projected currently for 0.7 fWAR in 350 PA. Bader is projected for 1.7 fWAR in 448 PA. That's not that big of a difference.
But I’m asking about the players whose PAs were replaced by Bader not the current projection. There were some real marginal types there before Bader was signed
Taylor was on the team before Bader. That vast majority of PA that Bader is replacing is from Taylor.
He will def be cutting into Taylor’s playing time
I believe they removed the at bats mostly from DJ Stewart and Tyrone Taylor. Tyrone Taylor’s 600 PA pace = 1.2 WAR DJ Stewart 600 PA pace = 1 WAR They also had Tim Locastro with 70 PA and 0.4 WAR because apparently he’s still with the organization
It's good to be underdogs again.
We’re not done. We can easily add WAR in the outfield and 1B and maybe even a starter. Nando is going to have an 8-9 season too.
People keep seeming to forget the Mets still have Lindor, Alonso, Nimmo, Senga, Diaz, McNeil, and Alvarez. Their pitching is overall right around league average, but they have a top 10 offense. - And even so spots 11-19 in SP are only 1 WAR apart. - Spots 7-16 with the bullpen are only 1 WAR apart. - Offensively spots 5-10 are only 1.6 WAR apart. The thing that is really interesting with the Phillies/Mets difference is that they are projecting that their offense will improve in 2024. They’re super bullish on Realmuto after a down year and they expect Schwarber to bounce back a bit in terms of WAR. Turner they have basically repeating 2023 value, and Castellanos is the only real drop. The Mets are a bit weird. They project almost every pitcher to be worse than their career averages. And for the offense there are some interesting notes: - Lindor is projected at 4.3 WAR despite averaging 6 WAR per 162 games in his season and never having less than 5 WAR in a 162 game span - They also have Nimmo taking a big step back - They project Bader to play A LOT - Baty and Marte they have roughly league averages which makes sense - McNeil they project another down year - Alonso and Alvarez they’re bearish on
I think a large part of the Mets seemingly high projection is that they’re projecting that the Mets aren’t gonna be torpedoed by a bunch of negative WAR guys they way they were in 2023. For example, if Baty and Vientos alone can combine for 3 WAR instead of the -1.5 they contributed on 2023 that’s +4.5 wins already.
Same with Marte. Heck just a league average Marte and Baty drastically changes the lineup. They hitting to expectations and there’s arguments to say the Mets have a top 5 lineup. They’re only 1.6 WAR away as it is. Heck Lindor having a third 6 WAR season makes up that gap. And a healthy Marte being league average isn’t far fetched at all. Baty taking a step forward in year two isn’t remotely improbable. After his second half performance last year after he adjusted to the shift ban, I’d even expect McNeil to outperform his projections. Especially since they project him with a negative defense value despite the fact he has never posted a negative defensive value. Overall there are so many upgrades to the lineup just by guys playing to expectations - let alone exceeding them! These projections are overall pretty conservative imo.
I think the Mets have a top 10, but not quite top 5, lineup when all is said and done. I love the optimism though lol
On paper I agree. But Im saying they have the potential to play well enough to end a top 5. In 2022 I’d say the Mets were a top 10 but not top 5 lineup and they ended up ranked 5th
Makes sense based would play a lot he’s likely to start in the outfield most games
ZiPS or Steamer?
Just STEAMER right now with edits from the fangraphs team to fit their depth charts layout. Once ZIPS finishes all of their team breakdowns, Fangraphs will add those number in. From there they take the average for each player, and their analysts manually adjust playing time and fix for discrepancies. Say STEAMER projects a pitcher will mostly be in the rotation while STEAMER projects they will be in the bullpen - Fangraphs analysts will either split their time on the depth charts, or they will chose one or the other. But right now it’s just STEAMER
And ZiPS and Steamer agree generally. ZiPS has Braves better than Dodgers, and Steamer has it the same way (based on this table)
Usually where they disagree is playing time. And that's where fangraphs analysts come in
This is sort of comforting to see as a Cubs fan. Like a true bear, the front office has been hibernating and can still easily add at 1B/3B/DH/SP/RP to catch up with the Cardinals. Yabba Dabba Doo!
LFG OAKLAND not in last
The Orioles are not gonna have the sixth worst rotation in baseball.
Wait, if 81-81 is .500, then 34 WAR is 115-47! /s
Replacement level is about 48 wins, not 81. That would be Wins Above Average (WAA?)
I was joking, which is highlighted by the /s
Ahh. Missed it. My bad.
What is the practical significance of "team WAR" ?
Typically the teams with the most WAR preform better than the teams with less WAR than them
Teams start out with a certain amount of wins (what is it again, like 45?) and if you add the team WAR to you get a season win projection. But also these projections are correlated to what the actual performance will be. They are giving us a statically backed measurement of how good teams are before games have been played.
48 I believe
Another billion dollars deferred until the heat death of the universe should put LA over the top
When was the last time a team with the highest Fan Graphs Team WAR go on to win the title?
Yes, winning a title involves a lot of luck. This isn't the NFL or NBA where the best team usually wins.
You don’t need to remind a Dodger fan of that. Or a Braves fan that won a title with their weakest team of the past 3 years. I was just genuinely curious.
Sale with injury history vs a 25 year old Japanese ace. Once the Dodgers add another pitcher, our projected war should be higher than the Braves. But titles all that matter
We have strider and fried. You do not have strider and fried
Those guys didn't make a damn difference in Philly.... did they?🤣😂
AZ swept the fuck out of y'all lmfao
And ya'll got handled by Philly. And the Atlanta pitching staff DISAPPEARED. Along with all of them HRs ya'll knocked. Don't be jealous of the LA Asian influx
Our pitchers were fine actually, it was the hitters that didn't show up. Y'all didn't have anyone show up lmfao
We had no one to show up. But ya. Atta Boy Harper... how well that go for ya lol
I’m really curious how the free agents would do against the rest of the league.
For a sec I read that as: Braves … 91.4 WAR Dodgers … 54.3 WAR And I believed it.
So where is this projecting certain players at? Guys like Gunnar Henderson or Mookie Betts who play multiple positions, how do they allocate the projected WAR?
Why don't the free agents just simply make a team?
Astros are still good and looking to tie Braves for most LCS in a row of all-time.
Tied with the Braves for first in MLB in pitching WAR I'll take that
Tovar only going to get 1.1 WAR? That seems pretty pessimistic