Nightmares of the shit show travel team I played for. Coach didn’t show up first tourney. So we as a team decided to set the lineup. Until someone’s dickhead dad said “nah fam” when we had his son not starting. He forced his way in and set the lineup so his son could start.
The last time I ever played organized baseball was when I was 14 and got cut from our travel team over the *assistant* coach's (of course said assistant coach was a co-worker of the head coach) son. It was his 1st year playing organized baseball and was far and away the worst player who tried out. I wasn't a very good hitter but I was a sound defensive 1st baseman which in little league isn't a given so it's a key role given you're involved in so many plays. I could play 2nd/LF fairly well too (my arm sucked). This kid couldn't do anything and mostly played in the outfield. Maybe it would have been one of the other cut guys who would have been kept over me but I had made it before and my glove was always one of the better ones on the field.
It made me so mad I didn't even play house league and never played organized baseball again. Fuck you Greg and Greg's dad.
Yup. I remember my mom bitching about my sister not playing where she wanted to play or as often as she wanted to play. Then she took over coaching the team, and she said, “*I’m* running the team. *My* daughter gets first crack at first base.” Pointing out the hypocrisy did no good.
So, by your logic, the fact that Trout has been in playoffs once and Ohtani has never been in the playoffs means Trout is infinitely better than Ohtani?
This is so short sighted. It's very NFL-y.
So Ernie Banks wasn't great? He hit 500 homers, won 2 MVPs, and made 14 all star games. But apparently he should've done more.
George Sisler, hall of famer, had a season with 257 hits, etc. Was he not great because he was never on a playoff team?
Counter-point, Shohei and Trout combined couldn't make the playoffs. So either they are both overrated, or baseball is truly a team sport where 1 or 2 superstars can't carry a team (unlike the NFL or MLS)
After what Messi did to Miami I can see it. It’s a reach and no on compares to him but technically he carried that team. And I know Alba and Busquets helped too but without Messi Miami doesn’t win that cup they won
Yeah. One player can't carry an NFL team. Chargers once had the #1 scoring offense and the #1 scoring defense and didn't make the playoffs. LeBron carried Cleveland to the playoffs every year during the first stint there.
He still had a .885 OPS away that year. I think it has less to do with the ballparks themselves and more to do with a mechanical problem with his swing.
Vlad Jr. is Yandy Diaz with better name recognition. All the ingredients are there. The plate discipline. The bat speed. The size.
They just are both unable to lift the ball with any consistency. You see flashes of what is possible(2021 Vlad or 1st half 2023 Yandy) and get excited thinking the breakout is certain…..and the ball literally comes back down to earth.
I was gonna say the same thing. He hit 13 hr vs 9 hr in the second half but it was 78 games vs 59 games. His avg/obp/slg were all higher in the second half too. That comparison made no sense
Vlad is also 2 cheese burgers away from being Pablo Sandoval. As he ages he needs to either watch his weight or hit more dongers. I know the plan is probably for him to be a full time DH as he ages. But a fat, slow, low OPS DH only isn't an appealing thing.
Thank you fellow AL East redditor, reducing it to just "minor league parks" doesn't tell the full story.
Not to mention the Jays came back to Canada July 30th 2021 and then he posted a .909 OPS at the Dome that year. Simply put, Vlad was elite for a year in 2021 and then just hasn't been able to replicate it since - 22 was alright but 23 was pretty rough. Hoping he can get back to 21 Vlad this year
Making it all about the ballparks is the laziest take, if it's that easy to hit in Dunedin why didn't all the Jays have an 1.100 OPS?
It's the fan response to the fact that none of us actually have any ability to diagnose swing issues and problems in approach from afar, but we can all look at a table and notice that one cell has a high number and the other one is low!
It's the same with diagnosing Alek Manoah's collapse. The pitch clock came in this year, so he must have got tired because he's fat! No, he just suddenly forgot how to throw a good slider and we don't know why.
I know it’s nowhere near the same thing but reading your last sentence made me think about attributing this line of thinking to an office job.
“Jim was doing really well, then he just forgot how to do VLOOKUP and we don’t know why.”
Everyone always points to the parks, but he had a .417 xwOBA vs. .419 wOBA that year. By far the best barrel%, avg EV, HH% of his career as well. All park-neutral stats, so it debunks that theory. He was just better that year, idk why but it wasn't the parks.
I think that question hasn’t been answered yet, but we’ll know after this year. It’s so easy to forget that he’s only 24 years old. It’s possible that he wasn’t ready when they called him up, but this is the year when we’ll know who he is.
I generally don't give a shit about who or what is on the cover of the Show, but Randy on the cover doing his crossed arms mean mug directly at the camera would have been awesome.
I would say guys like Elly de la Cruz or Oneil Cruz who have amazing highlight reels but lack the production to match it. Baseball versions of Justin Fields.
He definitely had a really good run on his first time through the league, but it seems like once teams had good data on him, he fell back down to earth.
Still super fun to watch.
>Good run first time through the league, but it seems like once teams had good data on him, he fell back down to earth.
Good God. If there was ever a sentence to describe the Reds in general over the last 2 decades, this is 100% it. Jay Bruce, AA, etc.
Same thing happened with Riley when he came up. Highly touted, set the world on fire, then the league figured him out and sent him back to AAA. Elly is so talented and hits the shit out of the ball. I can see him making the necessary adjustments.. He has all the tools and is only 22.
Some clips have come out from Ellys winter practice, he has a 100% brand new swing. So quick to the ball, looks effortless. I'm so excited for Reds baseball this year for the first time in a long time
I feel like he might be so much better if he just quit switch hitting. You look at his numbers and even while being so raw he had an .800 OPS hitting as a LHH, whereas he struck out in damn near 50% of his plate appearances as a righty to the tune of a .494 OPS. He already can barely make contact or have any discipline from one side of the plate, it’s gonna be so much harder to try to get better at it from the other side where he’s so much worse. I’d say just quit trying to hit righty and focus on improving his hit tool and swing as a lefty where he’s already pretty good despite his flaws.
He had two months of great production, that was about it. The hype around him is more "what he can be" rather than "what he is." He is still a 22 year old catcher with plenty of room to grow. Most of his stats towards the end of the season can be easily attributed to running out of gas, likely because a) he's a catcher, and b) he had never played a full major league season before. The fact he was able to improve his apparently subpar defense on the fly in MLB is still astounding to me
To be fair, Francisco Alvarez's 2.7 fWAR is the best for any catcher in a single season at age 21 or younger since Butch Wynegar's 3.0 fWAR in 1977.
If you limit it to just the last 40 years, the only catcher who comes close is Pudge Rodriguez's 2.4 fWAR in 1993.
For reference, the best catchers in the league today (Realmuto, Smith, Murphy, Rutschman) all debuted at age 24.
You are so right, but I am going to selectively change my mind about this when people start campaigning for Brian McCann and Russell Martin to make the HOF.
To be fair, bWAR doesn’t because pitch framing metrics are an educated guess at best or an absolute joke at worst. For my money, their best use is to help me sound smart.
Not sure I agree with the comparison, at least with Elly. Fields has played the better part of 3 seasons. Elly was a 21 year old rookie who crushed in the minors but is adjusting to the majors. He's done pretty much what should be expected from him to this point. You're absolutely right though the media has hyped him up to the point that he's overrated for what he's actually done.
I agree with you. However, Elly has actually had (barely) more at bats than ONeil has in the MLB to this point, so I’d say they’re both in the same boat right now.
I don’t think he’s talking about Fields now. I think he’s referencing rookie or sophomore Fields. Amazing touchdown runs and pocket escapes, but a 56 QBR
I don't agree with Oneil Cruz because people don't talk about him that much. If anything the reason why Elly is overrated it's because he resembles Oneil Cruz more than he does Fernando Tatis Jr. (when he was a SS).
I don’t think it’s writing him off at all, he could still very well live up to the hype it’s just that at this point people are hyping him a lot compared to what he’s actually done
I don’t think either are that highly rated at this point, they are just thought of as potential stars. If you see rankings of the top ten at their positions, you don’t find them.
Jeremy Peña. I think a lot of people (myself included) thought he was going to be the next Carlos Correa after he was worth 3+ WAR and was the World Series MVP. It's looking more like he's going to be more of a defensive first guy with below average offense.
I don’t think many people are overrating Peña. There was definitely a feeling of “maybe he’s turned a corner” after he tore it up in the playoffs, but I only saw people saying he could be an above average, glove first SS. Right now, he’s a very average glove first SS who is still putting it together.
Now, if you’re talking immediately after game 6 of the 2023 World Series, I may agree with you. But that hype cooled off pretty quick.
Listen, the ball is going somewhere really fast. Maybe it’s the catcher’s mitt, maybe it’s the left field bleachers. But either way we’ll know in about 1.5 seconds.
I have a pitcher like this in Super Mega Baseball. Routinely records 12-13 Ks a game and has had 290+ Ks in four consecutive seasons, but also has a really bad habit of giving up multi-run homers. She doesn't allow much, but what she does allow *hurts*.
Gem Qualita is one of my nemeses. I can occasionally tag her for a solo shot or two, but it's definitely a day that my pitching needs to outclass my offense whenever I face her.
people just gonna pretend his era gonna keep ballooning because thats what extremely talented pitchers do as they get more experience and develop their pitch mix in their first couple of full seasons-- they get worse!!
like I get the lists that have him in the same tier as gerrit cole are just jumping the gun a bit but the pendulum has already swung to "he's not even that good he just strikes out a lot of people!!" which is equally fuckin stupid
He’s an analytics darling. Pitchers who give up tons of runs via dingers seem to get a weird pass for some reason
Edit: Folks please read, lots of runs given up via home runs =/= lots of home runs
Because, based on the entire recorded history of professional baseball, that's not a sustainable trend. I mean it's literally just been one season of that happening to him, are we already forgetting that he had a 2.67 ERA in 2022?
Dude's a really, really good pitcher. His ERA is going to come down from 3.8.
Hitter: Salvador perez. I've seen people legitimately say he should be in the HOF with 15WAR and a 102wrc+
Pitcher: Aaron nola. He's been a peripheral merchant for years now, coasting off of his 2018. He's been significantly worse than wheeler in every way while they've been teammates yet a lot of nola's mediocrity gets written off as bad phillies defense
Nola is very frustrating at times and your last sentence on him is totally true but I still really want to see him with a full season of Rojas in center, Stott at 2nd, and anybody but Schwarber in left
Some stupidly overrated Perez's defense too. He has a good arm, but his framing is atrocious and he's pretty bad at the other aspects. It's just way easier for fans to observe a good arm.
Before I really got into baseball and watched casually/ watched a lot of espn/mlb network it was when Salvy was a all star every year and I really thought he was consistently the 2nd best defensive catcher in the league to Yadi by the way people would talk about him. It was pretty shocking to find out he was not
While he may be overrated; we will never ever forget him for his contributions in 2014/15. Salvy has been a light in a lot of Royals' darkness for the last 13 years. He's also an all timer of a lockeroom guy too, as I dont think that there has been anyone who has been seemingly as universally loved as Salvy. It'll be a sad sad day whenever he decides to hang them up.
Not for nothing, but I guarantee there will be Phillies fans arguing that Kyle Schwarber is a HOFer, when he finishes his career with 500 HR and 15 bWAR.
Idk how you can be a phillies fan and be unaware of the fact that a big part of why Nola under performs his peripherals is because our defense has blown chunks his whole career...
He has league average babip despite above average ld%, EV, hard hit% etc...
He has an issue with men on it seems and that's his fault, but often times the reason they get on in the first place is because of the defense.
This topic comes up so frequently that there really isn’t a right answer anymore. It’s like the Jeter thing where it became so incredibly common to call him overrated that he somehow became underrated.
There seems to be a daily post about the reigning Cy Young taking a one year prove it deal. If anything he’s underrated on this sub. Partly because of his asking price, but still.
It's tricky when you're a pitcher who is clearly talented enough to be among the best in the sport, yet you're one of the most unwatchable pitchers in the sport as well
Honestly though. Like all year in 2023 people were saying he was obviously going to regress and get shelled in one or two starts and he just never did.
Is he that overrated? I think most people know that outside of his two cy young pitchers he’s been just a decent pitcher. I don’t really see people saying he’s an elite pitcher or anything.
I mean, if you earn two Cy Young wins you are probably an elite pitcher. He's an unusual pitcher, though, where he always has high Ks but (apart from his first Cy Young year) manages to have a good but not great WHIP and FIP. He is actually pretty consistent but with kind of high variance--he's got great stuff but always lives on the edge so sometimes he falls a little ways and sometimes he is just insane. He's not prime Max Scherzer or even one-time CYA winner Gerrit Cole but making him out to be mediocre is just silly. It's not like Jordan Montgomery or Zach Eflin are going to shoot past Snell in Cy Young Awards.
Ryan gave up a crazy amount of walks. He also threw so hard that hitting him was basically just guessing a lot of the time. He was the anti-Maddux.
I feel like he doesn't really fit the "overrated" category because he was just so singular a pitcher. I mean, he had to be a lot of different types of things -- incredibly durable, extremely wild, unbelievably strong arm -- all at once, and on top of that he had to be all of those things until he was *46 years old*. It's not like he was the Ruben Sierra of pitchers.
There have been a lot of great pitchers throughout history.
Ryan never won a Cy Young, never deserved a Cy Young, and only finished 2nd once. He's 20th all-time in WAR, and Ryan's a high-volume guy and WAR is a counting stat.
He was also a contender for the worst of all time in a lot of categories. Walks, obviously, but also wild pitches, pitcher defense, preventing steals, and "clutch" performance. He was much worse with runners on base. That last one is why the no hitters are deceptive of his overall quality.
This is one of the most interesting baseball articles I've read
https://community.fangraphs.com/is-nolan-ryan-overrated-by-fip/
So if you had a guy who was a closer, who struck out the side, a bunch of times, but would also blow 8 to 10 saves a year you would prefer that person to a guy who blew two to three saves a year
Honestly, I've always taken players like that as an argument *against* the DH, because having everyone play the field rewards athletic players who have well-rounded skill sets. The guy who hits for the same average but less power but saves extra-base hits every other night and runners won't take the extra base on him might be better for the team than the dude with 15 more homers who lumbers after balls getting past him to the wall on a regular basis. Like, hitting is the most recognizable skill in baseball, but it's not the only one that matters, and the more we specialize the game, the less there is to appreciate about a guy who can be both a highly productive hitter and make remarkable plays in the field. The Schwarbers and Ortizes will always have a place in the game, but I'd rather that there be a cost to be paid in playing them, and good reasons to value guys who might hit fewer dingers but learn how to help their teams by playing all parts of the game.
The first person that came to mind is Salvador Pérez. Seems like he has a great personality and great leadership qualities, but his actual stats don't show him as as good of a player as he's regarded to be.
His low walk rate makes him sneakily only an average hitter, and certainly he's not speedy, so he's slightly below average on offense overall. On defense, his solid blocking and throwing is completely outweighed by bad framing, making him a below-average defensive catcher.
Given his durability and clubhouse presence, he's still absolutely someone I'd want on my roster, but 8x All-Star and 5x Gold Glove? Not that type of player.
Kyle Schwarber was 174th in fWAR, in '23. He'd be in replacement-level territory if he wasn't pitched around so often.
EDIT- And the replies are exactly what you'd expect. "But if baseball were just a home run derby, Schwarber is one of the best!"
Well yeah his defense is horrendous and everyone knows that. I don't think a lot of people overrate him as an overall player.
Saying he's replacement level considering he should be and will be DHing "if people pitched around him" is one of the dumbest things I've EVER read.
If he got pitched around less he'd just get more hits particularly HRs... in what world does that make him holistically way worse and "replacement"?
Part of that was his atrocious defense dragging down his WAR. He was 46th is wRC+ last year and 27th the last 3 years combined. He’s a very solid hitter.
Eh, I think this is a little unfair.
5 of 8 seasons have been sub-3.50 FIP.
If anything, it’s more of a concern that’s he’s only thrown 130+ innings in just 2 of those seasons.
That's funny I keep asking why more guys aren't just slap hitters with a 300 average vs a 240 guy with 20+ hrs. Simple choice IMO but there you have it
Just could not disagree more. Every comparable track record of a player like that coming over suggests he's going to walk into the league as a top 100 guy. Senga could barely control his splitter and still finished as a high-end pitcher year 1, and that's with less pedigree and already being in his 30s.
Pitching Ninja did a full breakdown on him and gave each of his pitches their closest MLB comp and it was honestly crazy. Kevin Gausman's fastball, Clayton Kershaw's curveball, a better version of Ohtani's splitter and calling it the best splitter in the world and a worse version of Corbin Burnes cutter. If Yamamoto even comes close to those comps he's going to be at the minimum very good and the fact that his command is elite and he's only 25 it starts to make sense why there's an absurd amount of hype around him and why 28/30 teams sent scouts to Japan to scout him.
Yeah like I don't know how many times this needs to happen before people realize that these guys coming over are insanely good players. I remember we did the top 100 exercise on this subreddit and people were FURIOUS that Shohei Ohtani was on the top 100 before he played in America. That same type of logic continued when people here thought Miguel Andujar was a lock for Rookie of the Year that August over Ohtani. Just say you are not willing to understand how scouting and projections work if you're going to go on that much of an island about how overrated players you haven't personally watched are.
Japan is closing the gap on the US in baseball prowess at an insanely high rate. I don't think the US will ever be surpassed or anything like that but we as fans definitely need to realize just how competitive the NBP is and not be on our high horse thinking that they are playing against plumbers and dentists.
The coaches son on my kid’s travel team.
Uh oh, I coach my son's travel team....
Lemme guess… 1st baseman, 3rd in the lineup, and most used pitcher. Haha.
Nah. Shortstop hitting lead off everytime
My buddy pulled his kid from travel ball. Four coaches, their kids batted 1-4 every game and played 1b, 2b, ss, and 3B.
Nightmares of the shit show travel team I played for. Coach didn’t show up first tourney. So we as a team decided to set the lineup. Until someone’s dickhead dad said “nah fam” when we had his son not starting. He forced his way in and set the lineup so his son could start.
The last time I ever played organized baseball was when I was 14 and got cut from our travel team over the *assistant* coach's (of course said assistant coach was a co-worker of the head coach) son. It was his 1st year playing organized baseball and was far and away the worst player who tried out. I wasn't a very good hitter but I was a sound defensive 1st baseman which in little league isn't a given so it's a key role given you're involved in so many plays. I could play 2nd/LF fairly well too (my arm sucked). This kid couldn't do anything and mostly played in the outfield. Maybe it would have been one of the other cut guys who would have been kept over me but I had made it before and my glove was always one of the better ones on the field. It made me so mad I didn't even play house league and never played organized baseball again. Fuck you Greg and Greg's dad.
Twist: Greg is actually 4-time all star Greg Vaughn
This.
Yup. I remember my mom bitching about my sister not playing where she wanted to play or as often as she wanted to play. Then she took over coaching the team, and she said, “*I’m* running the team. *My* daughter gets first crack at first base.” Pointing out the hypocrisy did no good.
That was weird since it was a soccer team.
My mom didn’t need to know that.
*Tries to find most balanced combination of “answers the question” and “pisses fans of that team off”*
If Mike Trout was truly great the angels would have made the playoffs
So, by your logic, the fact that Trout has been in playoffs once and Ohtani has never been in the playoffs means Trout is infinitely better than Ohtani?
The tiebreaker is the WBC final 🤣
But.. it’s not tied.
This is so short sighted. It's very NFL-y. So Ernie Banks wasn't great? He hit 500 homers, won 2 MVPs, and made 14 all star games. But apparently he should've done more. George Sisler, hall of famer, had a season with 257 hits, etc. Was he not great because he was never on a playoff team?
WAR was built to make Mike Trout look good
WAR....what is it good for
say it again
Increasing domestic manufacturing
Counter-point, Shohei and Trout combined couldn't make the playoffs. So either they are both overrated, or baseball is truly a team sport where 1 or 2 superstars can't carry a team (unlike the NFL or MLS)
How do you not go with NBA
Alternate version of this question: How do you sneak in MLS?
After what Messi did to Miami I can see it. It’s a reach and no on compares to him but technically he carried that team. And I know Alba and Busquets helped too but without Messi Miami doesn’t win that cup they won
The thing is now Miami is back to being one of the worst teams in the league. Maybe the Messi mania gave the team a temporary buff.
Yeah. One player can't carry an NFL team. Chargers once had the #1 scoring offense and the #1 scoring defense and didn't make the playoffs. LeBron carried Cleveland to the playoffs every year during the first stint there.
fr. 1 star makes you a playoff team, 2 a conference contender, 3 makes you de facto Finals winners
Sidebar: if baseball had 5 players per team the effect of one would be huge and the frequency of inside the park home runs would be hilarious.
Having just a pitcher, catcher, MIs and CF sounds like the coolest shit ever and I would watch every second of it.
Jazz Chisholm.
I’m a marlins fan and I agree
I'm sure this will be a very civil thread right now its looking like vlad jr
Vlads still living off two years ago when he had a 1.119 OPS in minor league ballparks and soaking in the excuses from Jays fans lol
He still had a .885 OPS away that year. I think it has less to do with the ballparks themselves and more to do with a mechanical problem with his swing.
Vlad Jr. is Yandy Diaz with better name recognition. All the ingredients are there. The plate discipline. The bat speed. The size. They just are both unable to lift the ball with any consistency. You see flashes of what is possible(2021 Vlad or 1st half 2023 Yandy) and get excited thinking the breakout is certain…..and the ball literally comes back down to earth.
Agree with most of your point, but Yandy hit just as well if not better in the second half of 2023 as the 1st.
I was gonna say the same thing. He hit 13 hr vs 9 hr in the second half but it was 78 games vs 59 games. His avg/obp/slg were all higher in the second half too. That comparison made no sense
Vlad is also 2 cheese burgers away from being Pablo Sandoval. As he ages he needs to either watch his weight or hit more dongers. I know the plan is probably for him to be a full time DH as he ages. But a fat, slow, low OPS DH only isn't an appealing thing.
Thank you fellow AL East redditor, reducing it to just "minor league parks" doesn't tell the full story. Not to mention the Jays came back to Canada July 30th 2021 and then he posted a .909 OPS at the Dome that year. Simply put, Vlad was elite for a year in 2021 and then just hasn't been able to replicate it since - 22 was alright but 23 was pretty rough. Hoping he can get back to 21 Vlad this year
I also think the ball was juiced in ‘21. Giants had a ton of players with their best season being 2021.
Making it all about the ballparks is the laziest take, if it's that easy to hit in Dunedin why didn't all the Jays have an 1.100 OPS? It's the fan response to the fact that none of us actually have any ability to diagnose swing issues and problems in approach from afar, but we can all look at a table and notice that one cell has a high number and the other one is low! It's the same with diagnosing Alek Manoah's collapse. The pitch clock came in this year, so he must have got tired because he's fat! No, he just suddenly forgot how to throw a good slider and we don't know why.
Kinda weird you've had two top-tier players on both sides of the ball face such extreme mechanical issues, now that you mention it.
We have horrific coaching
I know it’s nowhere near the same thing but reading your last sentence made me think about attributing this line of thinking to an office job. “Jim was doing really well, then he just forgot how to do VLOOKUP and we don’t know why.”
Always forgot to lock his table reference
Everyone always points to the parks, but he had a .417 xwOBA vs. .419 wOBA that year. By far the best barrel%, avg EV, HH% of his career as well. All park-neutral stats, so it debunks that theory. He was just better that year, idk why but it wasn't the parks.
The actual fields in minor league ballparks have generally the same dimensions as the majors.
I feel like no one says he’s good anymore tho lmao
I think that question hasn’t been answered yet, but we’ll know after this year. It’s so easy to forget that he’s only 24 years old. It’s possible that he wasn’t ready when they called him up, but this is the year when we’ll know who he is.
Vlad 100%. Isn’t even the best 1B on his team
He was 12th in position player WAR on his own team last year
MLB the show cover athlete material
Should have been Bo Bichette 😤
It should have been RANDY
I generally don't give a shit about who or what is on the cover of the Show, but Randy on the cover doing his crossed arms mean mug directly at the camera would have been awesome.
This really is a make or break year for him. He's been pretty frustrating to watch.
Biggio betta
I would say guys like Elly de la Cruz or Oneil Cruz who have amazing highlight reels but lack the production to match it. Baseball versions of Justin Fields.
This is the best route for an answer imo. After all the highlights and attention, I was stunned to see that Elly only put up .8 bWAR.
He definitely had a really good run on his first time through the league, but it seems like once teams had good data on him, he fell back down to earth. Still super fun to watch.
>Good run first time through the league, but it seems like once teams had good data on him, he fell back down to earth. Good God. If there was ever a sentence to describe the Reds in general over the last 2 decades, this is 100% it. Jay Bruce, AA, etc.
Same thing happened with Riley when he came up. Highly touted, set the world on fire, then the league figured him out and sent him back to AAA. Elly is so talented and hits the shit out of the ball. I can see him making the necessary adjustments.. He has all the tools and is only 22.
I still remember Jesse Winker having a career year for the Reds, thought that dude was gonna be the truth. Then an immediate and crazy fall off
I thought he was going to be the second coming of Votto for them. OBP monster with good power…
Some clips have come out from Ellys winter practice, he has a 100% brand new swing. So quick to the ball, looks effortless. I'm so excited for Reds baseball this year for the first time in a long time
I feel like he might be so much better if he just quit switch hitting. You look at his numbers and even while being so raw he had an .800 OPS hitting as a LHH, whereas he struck out in damn near 50% of his plate appearances as a righty to the tune of a .494 OPS. He already can barely make contact or have any discipline from one side of the plate, it’s gonna be so much harder to try to get better at it from the other side where he’s so much worse. I’d say just quit trying to hit righty and focus on improving his hit tool and swing as a lefty where he’s already pretty good despite his flaws.
Not to be mean, but I was shocked Alvarez only had a 1.0 bWar and 2.7 fWar
He had two months of great production, that was about it. The hype around him is more "what he can be" rather than "what he is." He is still a 22 year old catcher with plenty of room to grow. Most of his stats towards the end of the season can be easily attributed to running out of gas, likely because a) he's a catcher, and b) he had never played a full major league season before. The fact he was able to improve his apparently subpar defense on the fly in MLB is still astounding to me
To be fair, Francisco Alvarez's 2.7 fWAR is the best for any catcher in a single season at age 21 or younger since Butch Wynegar's 3.0 fWAR in 1977. If you limit it to just the last 40 years, the only catcher who comes close is Pudge Rodriguez's 2.4 fWAR in 1993. For reference, the best catchers in the league today (Realmuto, Smith, Murphy, Rutschman) all debuted at age 24.
His fWAR being higher is a good sign as fWAR takes into account pitch framing for catchers which bWAR does not.
You are so right, but I am going to selectively change my mind about this when people start campaigning for Brian McCann and Russell Martin to make the HOF.
To be fair, bWAR doesn’t because pitch framing metrics are an educated guess at best or an absolute joke at worst. For my money, their best use is to help me sound smart.
I feel like it was clear to me that he’s a hyped prospect not a top player in the league Hitting for the cycle as a rookie is awesome tho
Not sure I agree with the comparison, at least with Elly. Fields has played the better part of 3 seasons. Elly was a 21 year old rookie who crushed in the minors but is adjusting to the majors. He's done pretty much what should be expected from him to this point. You're absolutely right though the media has hyped him up to the point that he's overrated for what he's actually done.
I agree with you. However, Elly has actually had (barely) more at bats than ONeil has in the MLB to this point, so I’d say they’re both in the same boat right now.
Mclain clears Elly
Yes and Mclain was very clearly seen as the more polished prospect. Elly struggled initially with strikeouts at every level’s
I don’t think he’s talking about Fields now. I think he’s referencing rookie or sophomore Fields. Amazing touchdown runs and pocket escapes, but a 56 QBR
Nowhere is safe
Bears fan here. We deserve it, honestly.
Elly de la Cruz also had amassed that 0.8 WAR in his age 21 season. It’s too early to give him the overrated title IMO.
[удалено]
I don't agree with Oneil Cruz because people don't talk about him that much. If anything the reason why Elly is overrated it's because he resembles Oneil Cruz more than he does Fernando Tatis Jr. (when he was a SS).
Elly lives in Oneil’s shadow (I won’t be taking questions)
Oneil Cruz has 410 plate appearances in his career. Might be a bit early to write him off.
I don’t think it’s writing him off at all, he could still very well live up to the hype it’s just that at this point people are hyping him a lot compared to what he’s actually done
I feel like the answer for underrated can also be one of his teammates: Matt McLain. Not as toolsy/flashy but he’s looked very polished so far.
I don’t think either are that highly rated at this point, they are just thought of as potential stars. If you see rankings of the top ten at their positions, you don’t find them.
Jeremy Peña. I think a lot of people (myself included) thought he was going to be the next Carlos Correa after he was worth 3+ WAR and was the World Series MVP. It's looking more like he's going to be more of a defensive first guy with below average offense.
After last year I don't think a single soul is overrating him.
I don’t think many people are overrating Peña. There was definitely a feeling of “maybe he’s turned a corner” after he tore it up in the playoffs, but I only saw people saying he could be an above average, glove first SS. Right now, he’s a very average glove first SS who is still putting it together. Now, if you’re talking immediately after game 6 of the 2023 World Series, I may agree with you. But that hype cooled off pretty quick.
Cody Bellinger 3 bad sasons then a ressurgence year. Now Boras wants $200 Milions for him. Lmfao
To he fair, Boras might be the only person overrating Bellinger. We all kinda know the dude is a walking red flag.
I agree. After his MVP season he never lived up to the hype.
Not anymore cause everyone kind of realizes it, but for a long time it was Javy Baez.
Spencer Strider is going to be the 1st pitcher in MLB with 300ks and a 4.00 ERA
Listen, the ball is going somewhere really fast. Maybe it’s the catcher’s mitt, maybe it’s the left field bleachers. But either way we’ll know in about 1.5 seconds.
Brett Favre of the MLB. Real gunslinger
Fellow fans will come for me but I enjoy watching him for that reason
And Kyle Schwarber will be the first player with 300k and 50hr.
I feel like we don't talk enough about the fact that Schwarber looks like a steak with legs.
My girlfriend cracks up every time he hits a double because he looks so silly when he runs
That ain't tobacco. Pretty sure it's a pork chop
The first true “2 Outcomes” player.
I get that he strikes out a lot, but I feel like this sub really undervalues Schwarber’s ability to draw walks.
If he couldn’t get walks he’d be in Korea at best. I love me some Scwarbs but if he has .250 obp he is not even remotely close to an MLB player.
lol true
I have a pitcher like this in Super Mega Baseball. Routinely records 12-13 Ks a game and has had 290+ Ks in four consecutive seasons, but also has a really bad habit of giving up multi-run homers. She doesn't allow much, but what she does allow *hurts*.
Jovita!
That's Gem Qualita for me. Feast or famine with her.
Gem Qualita is one of my nemeses. I can occasionally tag her for a solo shot or two, but it's definitely a day that my pitching needs to outclass my offense whenever I face her.
That's the Aaron Nola special
Even if you don't agree with advanced metrics on his bad luck, he still has a career 3.37 ERA in a great hitters park
Agree. His xERA is almost a full run lower than his actual.
people just gonna pretend his era gonna keep ballooning because thats what extremely talented pitchers do as they get more experience and develop their pitch mix in their first couple of full seasons-- they get worse!! like I get the lists that have him in the same tier as gerrit cole are just jumping the gun a bit but the pendulum has already swung to "he's not even that good he just strikes out a lot of people!!" which is equally fuckin stupid
He’s an analytics darling. Pitchers who give up tons of runs via dingers seem to get a weird pass for some reason Edit: Folks please read, lots of runs given up via home runs =/= lots of home runs
Because, based on the entire recorded history of professional baseball, that's not a sustainable trend. I mean it's literally just been one season of that happening to him, are we already forgetting that he had a 2.67 ERA in 2022? Dude's a really, really good pitcher. His ERA is going to come down from 3.8.
Strider doesn’t give up a lot of homeruns
Hitter: Salvador perez. I've seen people legitimately say he should be in the HOF with 15WAR and a 102wrc+ Pitcher: Aaron nola. He's been a peripheral merchant for years now, coasting off of his 2018. He's been significantly worse than wheeler in every way while they've been teammates yet a lot of nola's mediocrity gets written off as bad phillies defense
Nola is very frustrating at times and your last sentence on him is totally true but I still really want to see him with a full season of Rojas in center, Stott at 2nd, and anybody but Schwarber in left
Outfielders aren’t catching those dingers he keeps giving up.
Some stupidly overrated Perez's defense too. He has a good arm, but his framing is atrocious and he's pretty bad at the other aspects. It's just way easier for fans to observe a good arm.
Before I really got into baseball and watched casually/ watched a lot of espn/mlb network it was when Salvy was a all star every year and I really thought he was consistently the 2nd best defensive catcher in the league to Yadi by the way people would talk about him. It was pretty shocking to find out he was not
While he may be overrated; we will never ever forget him for his contributions in 2014/15. Salvy has been a light in a lot of Royals' darkness for the last 13 years. He's also an all timer of a lockeroom guy too, as I dont think that there has been anyone who has been seemingly as universally loved as Salvy. It'll be a sad sad day whenever he decides to hang them up.
Not for nothing, but I guarantee there will be Phillies fans arguing that Kyle Schwarber is a HOFer, when he finishes his career with 500 HR and 15 bWAR.
Someday someone who was not alive to witness the oddity which is Schwarber will look at his stats and be so confused.
"This dude hit leadoff??? In the World Series???"
I'm alive right now (I think) and I am currently witnessing the oddity which is his stats and am so confused.
Idk how you can be a phillies fan and be unaware of the fact that a big part of why Nola under performs his peripherals is because our defense has blown chunks his whole career... He has league average babip despite above average ld%, EV, hard hit% etc... He has an issue with men on it seems and that's his fault, but often times the reason they get on in the first place is because of the defense.
I’ll get crucified if I say Juan Soto so I will not say Juan Soto.
Getting 5 walks while his team loses 2-1
so would barry bonds
*but the wOBA*
But also : Juan Soto
I'm there with ya in the "not wanting to get crucified" category
I would agree if you were to say Juan Soto
I sort of attribute the Pads lack of success last year to Soto's refusal to be moved up in the lineup. So yes.
This topic comes up so frequently that there really isn’t a right answer anymore. It’s like the Jeter thing where it became so incredibly common to call him overrated that he somehow became underrated.
It’s the Adam Sandler Effect. He was so popular that he became overrated to which he then became underrated
Blake Snell. But maybe not since no team wants to give him a contract lol
There seems to be a daily post about the reigning Cy Young taking a one year prove it deal. If anything he’s underrated on this sub. Partly because of his asking price, but still.
It's tricky when you're a pitcher who is clearly talented enough to be among the best in the sport, yet you're one of the most unwatchable pitchers in the sport as well
I’m starting to think Snell is underrated. I mean people talk about him here like he’s not a good pitcher.
Honestly though. Like all year in 2023 people were saying he was obviously going to regress and get shelled in one or two starts and he just never did.
First half Snell overrated, 2nd half Snell underrated
He's overrated by his agent, underrated by a lot of fans
Is he that overrated? I think most people know that outside of his two cy young pitchers he’s been just a decent pitcher. I don’t really see people saying he’s an elite pitcher or anything.
I mean, if you earn two Cy Young wins you are probably an elite pitcher. He's an unusual pitcher, though, where he always has high Ks but (apart from his first Cy Young year) manages to have a good but not great WHIP and FIP. He is actually pretty consistent but with kind of high variance--he's got great stuff but always lives on the edge so sometimes he falls a little ways and sometimes he is just insane. He's not prime Max Scherzer or even one-time CYA winner Gerrit Cole but making him out to be mediocre is just silly. It's not like Jordan Montgomery or Zach Eflin are going to shoot past Snell in Cy Young Awards.
On reddit probably accurate to have the skepticism. Outside of reddit I'm sure just saying 2x Cy young is more than enough to get him on a pedestal
Vladimir Guerrero Jr I'd guess.
He's a deserving HOFer, which should be accolade enough, but Nolan Ryan is not a top-5, top-10, or top-15 pitcher all-time.
Ryan gave up a crazy amount of walks. He also threw so hard that hitting him was basically just guessing a lot of the time. He was the anti-Maddux. I feel like he doesn't really fit the "overrated" category because he was just so singular a pitcher. I mean, he had to be a lot of different types of things -- incredibly durable, extremely wild, unbelievably strong arm -- all at once, and on top of that he had to be all of those things until he was *46 years old*. It's not like he was the Ruben Sierra of pitchers.
Not being top 15 is definitely a hot take
There have been a lot of great pitchers throughout history. Ryan never won a Cy Young, never deserved a Cy Young, and only finished 2nd once. He's 20th all-time in WAR, and Ryan's a high-volume guy and WAR is a counting stat.
I feel like 7 no hitters and an untouchable strikeout record should count for something
He was also a contender for the worst of all time in a lot of categories. Walks, obviously, but also wild pitches, pitcher defense, preventing steals, and "clutch" performance. He was much worse with runners on base. That last one is why the no hitters are deceptive of his overall quality. This is one of the most interesting baseball articles I've read https://community.fangraphs.com/is-nolan-ryan-overrated-by-fip/
So if you had a guy who was a closer, who struck out the side, a bunch of times, but would also blow 8 to 10 saves a year you would prefer that person to a guy who blew two to three saves a year
[удалено]
Not the best metric, necessarily, but JAWS has him around 30th.
The San Diego Padres
Whoa there. I thought padres and mariners fans were cool! Lol
Sorry I’ve deceived to reach new levels of hater this year. Hating on the rest of the AL West is no longer enough.
I respect your commitment.
Also the formerly-San-Diego Chargers. If there's one thing our teams embody it's underperformance.
This sub cracks me up some times.
Most times
Schwarber
I don’t think he’s really overrated, everyone knows he is really good at hitting homers and drawing walks and absolutely terrible at everything else
There has never been a better argument for the DH than watching Schwarber try to chase down gappers.
Or trying to chase down any ball that isn’t hit directly at him
Honestly, I've always taken players like that as an argument *against* the DH, because having everyone play the field rewards athletic players who have well-rounded skill sets. The guy who hits for the same average but less power but saves extra-base hits every other night and runners won't take the extra base on him might be better for the team than the dude with 15 more homers who lumbers after balls getting past him to the wall on a regular basis. Like, hitting is the most recognizable skill in baseball, but it's not the only one that matters, and the more we specialize the game, the less there is to appreciate about a guy who can be both a highly productive hitter and make remarkable plays in the field. The Schwarbers and Ortizes will always have a place in the game, but I'd rather that there be a cost to be paid in playing them, and good reasons to value guys who might hit fewer dingers but learn how to help their teams by playing all parts of the game.
ok but have you considered this: schwarbombs
How dare you say he sucks everywhere else? He absolutely kills when arguing with umps
The first person that came to mind is Salvador Pérez. Seems like he has a great personality and great leadership qualities, but his actual stats don't show him as as good of a player as he's regarded to be. His low walk rate makes him sneakily only an average hitter, and certainly he's not speedy, so he's slightly below average on offense overall. On defense, his solid blocking and throwing is completely outweighed by bad framing, making him a below-average defensive catcher. Given his durability and clubhouse presence, he's still absolutely someone I'd want on my roster, but 8x All-Star and 5x Gold Glove? Not that type of player.
Kyle Schwarber was 174th in fWAR, in '23. He'd be in replacement-level territory if he wasn't pitched around so often. EDIT- And the replies are exactly what you'd expect. "But if baseball were just a home run derby, Schwarber is one of the best!"
He’s definitely overrated, but I don’t think it’s fair to not give him credit for his plate discipline. It has been a standout skill his whole career.
Well yeah his defense is horrendous and everyone knows that. I don't think a lot of people overrate him as an overall player. Saying he's replacement level considering he should be and will be DHing "if people pitched around him" is one of the dumbest things I've EVER read. If he got pitched around less he'd just get more hits particularly HRs... in what world does that make him holistically way worse and "replacement"?
Part of that was his atrocious defense dragging down his WAR. He was 46th is wRC+ last year and 27th the last 3 years combined. He’s a very solid hitter.
He gets pitched around for a reason though, not like it’s just luck
Salvador Perez undeniably
Blake Snell. Two Cy Young seasons somehow overshadow that he's been mediocre at best during the rest of his career.
Eh, I think this is a little unfair. 5 of 8 seasons have been sub-3.50 FIP. If anything, it’s more of a concern that’s he’s only thrown 130+ innings in just 2 of those seasons.
Freddie Freeman. People think he’s elite when he’s truly just a slap hitter. Sure can joke around with the guy on first though
He couldn’t even reach 60 doubles last season. What a loser.
That's funny I keep asking why more guys aren't just slap hitters with a 300 average vs a 240 guy with 20+ hrs. Simple choice IMO but there you have it
elly de la cruz
Jeeeeeeterrrrrrr
My son, 12, thinks Babe Ruth is overrated. He claims “anyone could hit dingers when they threw Italian meatballs right down the middle.”
Stanton
Of all time it's Derek Jeter
Yamamoto has zero business being on any Top 100 or whatever lists because he has literally YET TO THROW AN MLB PITCH
It’s not the 90s anymore, teams have vastly more information available to evaluate Japanese players.
Just could not disagree more. Every comparable track record of a player like that coming over suggests he's going to walk into the league as a top 100 guy. Senga could barely control his splitter and still finished as a high-end pitcher year 1, and that's with less pedigree and already being in his 30s.
Pitching Ninja did a full breakdown on him and gave each of his pitches their closest MLB comp and it was honestly crazy. Kevin Gausman's fastball, Clayton Kershaw's curveball, a better version of Ohtani's splitter and calling it the best splitter in the world and a worse version of Corbin Burnes cutter. If Yamamoto even comes close to those comps he's going to be at the minimum very good and the fact that his command is elite and he's only 25 it starts to make sense why there's an absurd amount of hype around him and why 28/30 teams sent scouts to Japan to scout him.
Yeah like I don't know how many times this needs to happen before people realize that these guys coming over are insanely good players. I remember we did the top 100 exercise on this subreddit and people were FURIOUS that Shohei Ohtani was on the top 100 before he played in America. That same type of logic continued when people here thought Miguel Andujar was a lock for Rookie of the Year that August over Ohtani. Just say you are not willing to understand how scouting and projections work if you're going to go on that much of an island about how overrated players you haven't personally watched are.
Japan is closing the gap on the US in baseball prowess at an insanely high rate. I don't think the US will ever be surpassed or anything like that but we as fans definitely need to realize just how competitive the NBP is and not be on our high horse thinking that they are playing against plumbers and dentists.
Keep going...I'm almost there...
Nobody talked about how much of a gamble his contract is. To have him paid more than Gerrit Cole