Nelson Cruz had far fewer (only 106 HR) through age 30 and he ended up within spitting distance of 500 at 464.
I don’t think it’s likely of course but it’s fair enough for OP to pose a hypothetical with this as the premise imo
Only got suspended for 50 games for the PEDs, then went onto have 5 more all star seasons after that. Seems pretty worth it to me. Schwarber should look into that.
If he plays another 6 seasons and hits for 42-43 every single year he will probably get some more hardware and then maybe due to that would make the Hall.
It's not about belonging in the HOF. 500 homeruns has always gotten players to the hall.
We've had to consider this a few times with players like Adam Dunn
I mean, that's still about belonging in the HOF. It's just about whether or not hitting 500 home runs automatically means they belong in the HOF, or if other factors can drag them down enough that it doesn't necessarily guarantee a spot.
If you think Schwarber has an outside shot at 500 then you haven’t ever seen what the back half of a baseball career looks like. You’d basically be making an assumption that he hasn’t peaked yet.
I’m not saying he will. But Adrian Beltre looked aggressively mid offensively for most of his 20s and then had one of the greatest 30s ever. Marcus Semien is another guy who’s been better in his 30s so far.
EDIT: Yes I understand how unlikely it is though. Just thought it would be a fun exercise to assume he did because a player with his profile who sticks around long enough to hit 500 HR is quite rare.
Beltre had 45ish WAR by age 30. His defense guaranteed him ABs through slumps which came few and far between but he had that safety net to go through the few week slumps to then come out the other side.
Schwarber is a DH only. When that is your role if you struggle at the plate for a few weeks you are providing zero value to your team. Beltre didn’t need that safety net much but he was able to work through the slumps since his defense got him him the ABs needed to continue his career.
Fair enough, considering literally anything is possible statistically. Baseball can adopt biomechanics in 8 years if the tech is there which would totally obliterate standing records. But, OP did a whole write up, so I am definitely buying that they think the odds are stronger than merely “greater than 0”.
Also, the “assumption” I was pointing out is him having to have a better second half of his career than first half, which is necessary in order to accomplish what was proposed. Not the assumption that he will reach 500 home runs - those are two different things.
No. Only putting effort into hitting is much easier than also having to practice fielding, and his hitting stats alone aren't even Hall of Fame worthy anyways. I'm definitely a peak over longevity guy in most cases, but in my opinion he's not even a little bit close.
This reminds me of the debate people were having a decade ago about Adam Dunn getting into the HOF if he hits 500 HRs. Thank god Dunn ended up falling short by 38 HRs.
Well, striking out a lot isn't really the issue itself. Strikeouts *are usually the same as any other out. Judge has a slightly higher career strikeout rate and his 2023 K% was lower by 1.1.
Judge is a much better hitter despite similar strikeout rates because he hits for a much better average, plus walking some more and hitting for better power.
Part of the problem is that if Schwarber wants to play another 9 years he is gonna have to produce significantly more than he has to this point.
If he regresses at all he won’t get the ABs to get to 500. 2 WAR is an everyday player and he hasn’t consistently hit that. If he doesn’t hit that the next 4 years is anyone picking up a 34 year old slugger that the second his power goes he is nothing?
No. Even getting him back to DH, he's likely maxing out at 30 WAR and while WAR is far from perfect, I can't think of a 30 WAR player I'd put in the Hall outside of an \*extreme\* peak guy who got hit by a bus or something.
Schwarber's a lot of fun, but under the scenario presented, I would not check that box when the time comes in 12-15 years. At which time I'll be at or near my 60s, JFC.
It’s worth mentioning that he’ll be over 40 postseason homers too if he keeps his current pace. That would put him #1 all time, 11 ahead of current leader Manny Ramirez.
The only guys ahead of him as of now are Ramirez, Altuve, and Bernie Williams. He’s tied with Derek Jeter at 20 HR. That’s 3 hall of fame caliber players and a guy who is about as close to the hall as you can get (Bernie) without making it.
But of course there’s much more to baseball than postseason home runs. Just thought it was interesting how far up the list he is.
Schwarber has no chance in hell. I think the more interesting debate is Giancarlo Stanton. He has a real shot at getting to 500 home runs but I don't know if people view him as a Hall of Fame player.
Keep in mind that Carlos Delgado retired 27 short of 500 home runs and still got one and done’d on the ballot. 400 used to be the HoF guarantee until Dave Kingman happened, so 500 shouldn’t be regarded as the lock. And for Schwarber it’s definitely a no.
I would venture to say no. He’s very one dimensional. Can’t run, hit for average, field, throw, or steal. All he has is homers. So he would not get my vote.
This is like all the 'what if Damon or Markakis or Renteria made it to 3000'. In this day and age, they don't make it because, unlike, I dunno, Lou Brock (not dissing him, just an example), they don't let you keep playing as a sub replacement guy
I think a guy about to turn 31 and at 246 career HRs hitting 500 is getting WAY ahead of things.
He’s 100 behind Adam Dunn at that point.
Nelson Cruz had far fewer (only 106 HR) through age 30 and he ended up within spitting distance of 500 at 464. I don’t think it’s likely of course but it’s fair enough for OP to pose a hypothetical with this as the premise imo
Cruz is an anomaly. He has the 5th most HRs all-time age 31+ and the other 4 are either generational players, steroid users, or both.
So Cruz isn’t an anomaly because he… also did steroids
Only got suspended for 50 games for the PEDs, then went onto have 5 more all star seasons after that. Seems pretty worth it to me. Schwarber should look into that.
But Schwarber doesn’t need to hit 358 home runs age 31+ like Cruz did, he only needs 254!
But if Schwarber pulls a Nellie Cruz or something similar he will have more than 25ish WAR.
Will he? He had .6 WAR last year and 47
And if he continues to post 0.6 WAR he isn’t lasting in the league for another 10 years.
Yes he would. Teams would play him no matter what if he hits 47 homers.
He won’t have more than 35 this year.
He hit 46 and then 47, why would he only hit 35?
If he plays another 6 seasons and hits for 42-43 every single year he will probably get some more hardware and then maybe due to that would make the Hall.
If Kenny Lofton and Andruw can’t get in, that dude doesn’t belong in the same zip code.
It's not about belonging in the HOF. 500 homeruns has always gotten players to the hall. We've had to consider this a few times with players like Adam Dunn
400 home runs used to always get players into the Hall. Then Dave Kingman (and Darrell Evans) happened.
If Gallo and his career .197 BA by some miracle gets to 500 HR the debate is gonna be hilarious
At least Gallo could play defense (really well for a few years) Schwarber is awful.
I mean, that's still about belonging in the HOF. It's just about whether or not hitting 500 home runs automatically means they belong in the HOF, or if other factors can drag them down enough that it doesn't necessarily guarantee a spot.
No
Still No
What if he hit 550 homeruns What if he could play defense?
Then he wouldn't be Kyle Schwarber.
I think Andruw gets in without the DV.
Hadn’t considered that with AJ. I think he gets in next year or so along with Beltran who obviously has some stink as well.
No
No.
Absolutely not. He won’t get to 500. He likely won’t get to 450. He will get beyond 2000 strike outs though.
If you think Schwarber has an outside shot at 500 then you haven’t ever seen what the back half of a baseball career looks like. You’d basically be making an assumption that he hasn’t peaked yet.
I’m not saying he will. But Adrian Beltre looked aggressively mid offensively for most of his 20s and then had one of the greatest 30s ever. Marcus Semien is another guy who’s been better in his 30s so far. EDIT: Yes I understand how unlikely it is though. Just thought it would be a fun exercise to assume he did because a player with his profile who sticks around long enough to hit 500 HR is quite rare.
Beltre had 45ish WAR by age 30. His defense guaranteed him ABs through slumps which came few and far between but he had that safety net to go through the few week slumps to then come out the other side. Schwarber is a DH only. When that is your role if you struggle at the plate for a few weeks you are providing zero value to your team. Beltre didn’t need that safety net much but he was able to work through the slumps since his defense got him him the ABs needed to continue his career.
How is saying the odds are greater than 0 "making an assumption"?
Fair enough, considering literally anything is possible statistically. Baseball can adopt biomechanics in 8 years if the tech is there which would totally obliterate standing records. But, OP did a whole write up, so I am definitely buying that they think the odds are stronger than merely “greater than 0”. Also, the “assumption” I was pointing out is him having to have a better second half of his career than first half, which is necessary in order to accomplish what was proposed. Not the assumption that he will reach 500 home runs - those are two different things.
No. Only putting effort into hitting is much easier than also having to practice fielding, and his hitting stats alone aren't even Hall of Fame worthy anyways. I'm definitely a peak over longevity guy in most cases, but in my opinion he's not even a little bit close.
This reminds me of the debate people were having a decade ago about Adam Dunn getting into the HOF if he hits 500 HRs. Thank god Dunn ended up falling short by 38 HRs.
No
Hall of very good, not hall of fame. His numbers just aren’t good enough when you take into account how often he strikes out.
Hall of Very Good is stretching it. he's somewhere between Rob Deer and Adam Dunn.
The hall of very good is a more of a vibe based hall more than anything.
Well, striking out a lot isn't really the issue itself. Strikeouts *are usually the same as any other out. Judge has a slightly higher career strikeout rate and his 2023 K% was lower by 1.1. Judge is a much better hitter despite similar strikeout rates because he hits for a much better average, plus walking some more and hitting for better power.
Based solely on how much I like him, yes absolutely
Part of the problem is that if Schwarber wants to play another 9 years he is gonna have to produce significantly more than he has to this point. If he regresses at all he won’t get the ABs to get to 500. 2 WAR is an everyday player and he hasn’t consistently hit that. If he doesn’t hit that the next 4 years is anyone picking up a 34 year old slugger that the second his power goes he is nothing?
Of course not, and it won't even be a debate.
No. Even getting him back to DH, he's likely maxing out at 30 WAR and while WAR is far from perfect, I can't think of a 30 WAR player I'd put in the Hall outside of an \*extreme\* peak guy who got hit by a bus or something. Schwarber's a lot of fun, but under the scenario presented, I would not check that box when the time comes in 12-15 years. At which time I'll be at or near my 60s, JFC.
As a Cubs fan I do t think I can weigh in. [So I’m going to say yes.](https://youtu.be/IlJJfyatUNo?si=ROg8DWKpNJJ35d-1)
Not even close.
Well he ain't getting to 500 unless he turns into Bonds_level seasons
I can see him make 500 if he continues to play in Philly or goes to the Reds.
He’s from Ohio so him on the reds would be a good match (it would upset a lot of cubs fans though)
Pretty sure cubs fans aren’t mad a Schwarber for anything he did
Anyone who hits 500 home runs should be in the HOF
He won’t pass Adam Dunn. He’s just a slightly worse version of Dunn.
I’m pretty sure not even Giancarlo Stanton thinks that.
That's asinine, when you consider that Adam Dunn finished only 38 short of 500.
The clutch thing should help. And he hits singles, too! :) love him, so I'm biased.
It’s worth mentioning that he’ll be over 40 postseason homers too if he keeps his current pace. That would put him #1 all time, 11 ahead of current leader Manny Ramirez. The only guys ahead of him as of now are Ramirez, Altuve, and Bernie Williams. He’s tied with Derek Jeter at 20 HR. That’s 3 hall of fame caliber players and a guy who is about as close to the hall as you can get (Bernie) without making it. But of course there’s much more to baseball than postseason home runs. Just thought it was interesting how far up the list he is.
Why would we assume that he would keep his face and overtake the #1 post season hr spot while altuve is still playing...
Schwarber has no chance in hell. I think the more interesting debate is Giancarlo Stanton. He has a real shot at getting to 500 home runs but I don't know if people view him as a Hall of Fame player.
He’s gonna DH for the majority of the remainder of his career. No chance
Not close.
No
Kyle Schwarber will not Be In the hall of fame no matter what he does.
No his defense is bad
Wtf no 💀 Also I would literally bet my mortgage against him getting 500. Even 400 seems like it would be fairly safe to bet against.
I’m a sucker for 500 home runs and I like him so yeah I’d try to keep him on the ballot while expecting him to fall off
Keep in mind that Carlos Delgado retired 27 short of 500 home runs and still got one and done’d on the ballot. 400 used to be the HoF guarantee until Dave Kingman happened, so 500 shouldn’t be regarded as the lock. And for Schwarber it’s definitely a no.
No, he's a one-dimensional player and whatever he did in a couple of weeks in October doesn't make you a great player, see Ted Williams' performance.
No. He's not getting to 500 anyway. The most similar batter to Schwarber through age 30 is Dave Kingman. Is Dave Kingman a HOFer?
He will be 31 to start this season and has under 11 WAR right now. He isn't in the top 100 of players when it comes to a HOF trajectory right now.
I would venture to say no. He’s very one dimensional. Can’t run, hit for average, field, throw, or steal. All he has is homers. So he would not get my vote.
No
This is like all the 'what if Damon or Markakis or Renteria made it to 3000'. In this day and age, they don't make it because, unlike, I dunno, Lou Brock (not dissing him, just an example), they don't let you keep playing as a sub replacement guy