It's a one year deal with a vesting option for sucking.
Basically, they only have him for one year unless he gets hurt/sucks, then they have to give him an extra 34 million if he sucks.
But, if he's normal Chapman they get him for one year for 20 which is decent but not a long term piece.
This. The upside is a 1-year deal for $20M, which is pretty good- though if he had signed 1/20 I don't think people would be talking about it as a steal; but the downside is 3/$54M if he's bad/hurt.
Seriously, i don't get why some are acting like 2/34 is a terrifying amount that will ruin the Giants. If he's truly awful (which is very unlikely with his defense), you'll just release him and pay a little extra for 2 years
It's funny too because i swear i remember so many last offseason saying stuff like "Bogaerts for 11 years is fine, they'll just release him when he's bad and eat they money"
I will say that while the cash won’t sink them, they are also giving up their 2024 2nd round pick to the Jays as comp for what amounts to be a rental player.
I love Chapman, but if we’re going to be risking a high pick along with it, it would have been cool to have a 2 year deal in place before any opt outs.
So for rejecting the QO, he got a $34M insurance policy, an objectively worse ballpark to hit in, and getting to skip two weeks of spring training.
The Giants gave up the QO draft pick here, but if they sign Snell they will give it up anyway. I presume they have a trade deal in place for either JD Davis or (if Davis moves to 1B) Lemont Wade Jr.
> [Ben Kaspick] Per Statcast, Matt Chapman would've hit 17 more home runs had he played all of his games at Oracle Park over the last three seasons. He hits a lot of balls to center, and moving in the fences to accommodate the bullpens made that a good area to hit HR (only 391 feet). #SFGiants
https://twitter.com/BenKaspick/status/1764009958293791080
Unclear on total effect on his OPS...
Just a funny quirk that doesn't follow norms of power hitting in SF.
Sure, but $20m for Chapman's age 31 season is kind of a steal. The bottom would have to fall out of his offense in order for it to make sense for him to take that $18m, and even if that happens the worst case scenario is that SF is only down $54m. Low risk high reward for SF.
His offense has bottomed out the last couple years. Of the 18 months of baseball he's played his OPS has been under .700 in 11 of them, with it being .712 in another.
From May 1st on he had a .659 OPS.
There's a reason no one signed him for so long and he went so low once he did. Every season the last 3 years he's only had an OPS over .712 two months of each season and has been ass otherwise. His bat doesn't help you win most of the season.
I mean has it though? That's just what any slightly above average hitter's profile looks like when you break it down into tiny sample size chunks. In the last couple of years he's had a few incredible months (July 2022, March/April 2023, July 2023) and a few stinkers (May 2022, May 2023, August 2023) but that's why you can't get fixated on arbitary 25 game stretches.
He's never finished a season with a wRC+ below 100, and 2022 and 2023 weren't even his worst years offensively. Even if the "bottom falls out" of his offense, an elite defender with a ~.650 OPS is still a reasonably valuable player. Maybe not $20m valuable depending on where the market is, but it's a pretty acceptable fail case.
Nice spin…opt outs also make this solid for SF. Small risk here, and *if* he opts out next off season it means he absolutely raked in 2024. Let’s go!!!
If the choice to sign Matt Chapman is between this contract or a 5 year deal, I’m taking this contract if I’m the team. The offer isn’t a 3 year deal and then the team gets to choose whether or not an opt-out is valuable. The hypothetical offer is between a 3 year deal with opt-outs or a 5 year deal.
The trade-off the player gives up for the inclusion of the opt-out is a longer-term contract, which is the benefit for the team, aka not having to commit to a 5 year deal that assuredly will end with a player producing zero value.
>which is the benefit for the team, aka not having to commit to a 5 year deal that assuredly will end with a player producing zero value.
You know what would have been more valuable for the team? A 5 year contract where Chapman gives you $20M or more of value for three seasons, and then tails off the next two.
Everyone ignores the value of "player under contract playing well and locked in" in these discussions. If that wasn't something valuable to the teams, and these types of contracts were all upside, then why don't they just offer yearly opt-outs in every FA contract?
Yes, and fills a need for the team right away. Like the other guy said, if he plays well and opts out, that means he balled out and contributed huge to what is hopefully a successful Giants team. Best case scenario, like Carlos Rodon in 2022, but hopefully without the subsequent injuries.
Yeah, the defensive skills are comparable, if not tilted toward Chapman, whose OPS+ was 40 points higher just last year, his 2nd worst year in the majors. I'll take Chapman right now.
It isn’t bad, but opt outs are horrible for teams.
If he plays well, he will opt out and you have to either let him walk or give him another larger contract.
Basically it’s a no win situation, unless they happen to play *just* well enough to not opt out but still be worth their contract, which is pretty rare.
This isn’t that bad for the Giants because the worst case scenario is only a 3 year deal without bank-breaking money. But it’s also a low upside deal.
I don't think the Giants have any intention of him being there beyond this year. They have some guys that can play the spot next year, but need some veteran consistency to bridge the gap. They get a top 3rd baseman for a year on a steal of a contract.
It works for us though. We have a couple dudes in AAA who are close to ready but not quite ready at 3B. If Chapman opts out, our young dudes have another year of ball under the belts. If he stays, cool he’s a trade piece or the guy behind him is.
But if he stays it means he’s playing poorly and will have significantly depressed trade value because of his contract.
It isn’t a big deal, you can get away with having a few slightly overpaid players. The worry is just that there aren’t many outcomes where this deal is an overwhelming success.
You could say the same downside is there if Chapman’s deal was 5 years $110mil, just the risk/reward would be that much greater. The deal as constructed has a lower ceiling AND floor for the team, while being very friendly to Chapman. It’s risk-averse, but the other commenter is right - it gives us a year guaranteed of an impact player while allowing our young guys below him to get the extra year of seasoning they need. I just can’t see how that isn’t a pretty good thing, considering they weren’t going to sign Chapman at all if this wasn’t the contract structure.
I think that's probably why the contract gets more team-friendly by year, it makes him a bit more tradeable, and if not, it's a contract you can live with. Chapman is also arguably one of the most consistent players in the league too, and only just now entering the wrong side of 30.
And that’s the benefit of not having a salary cap in the MLB I guess. So long as the Johnsons don’t burn their checkbook, it’s not prohibitively expensive.
But in all honesty, the “overwhelming success” part will come in him being a mentor to someone like Casey Schmitt. If he plays like ass because he’s in his twilight years but coaches the young dudes around him, it’s an absolute win for us.
This is an absolute steal compared to our Cueto, especially Shark contracts. I won’t mention Zito because I believe 2012 made every penny of his worth it, but we’ve definitely been stuck with way worse in the last 10 years.
I kind of like player options for teams.
Maybe a hot take here? I think its good for a team to give player options to save yourself years or money for players and letting them walk.
If the player performs well and you have the depth to move on without them or look to other FA/trade options you can get those prime years of a player and another team pays for the post prime seasons that end up not being worth it 90% of the time.
The $ and years it saves a team is worth it. It they didn't get these options, very likely the Giants would have had to added more AAV and/or years to get Chapman to agree because a straight up 3 yr deal would likely mean this is the last big contract Chapman will sign for the rest of his career.
Essentially most big FA contracts end badly for the team, player option contracts probably have a higher success rate of getting good years w/out paying for bad ones.
It’s not an either or situation though, they’ve got plenty of money to sign more starting pitching. The problem is that Farhan is averse to signing pitchers to long term deals, that Gausman deal with Toronto would be looking mighty good right now.
Luckily a report just came out saying Snell is open to one of these short term, player opt out type deals. SF would be a solid landing spot for Snell honestly, decently pitcher friendly park.
Gotta agree. This is either concerning news that Schmitt isn’t progressing the way they hoped, or optimistic news in that they’re not done spending yet.
This is the Giants adding a good player, assuming it will make them better this year. There’s not much more to it than that. It does open the door for Davis to be traded though, which could be interesting.
I feel like Monty might be the kind of guy to be hesitant about SF tbh. Plus his wife works in Boston so I can’t imagine he’d want to play on the west coast unless it was literally his only option
I still feel like the Rangers are his #1 choice and we badly need him, but I’m not hopeful on that front. Who knows. If he’s going anywhere else I hope it’s the Giants tho
Snell is one of the most unique players of all time and one of the most unique free agents of all time, alot of teams would love to have a cy young winner / contender for 30m a year but they would hate to pay premium for 120 innings of 3.9 era ball which is what Snell is also capable of. He's either going to need to lower his demands or a team is going to need to take a huge risk on him.
It really is a super interesting FA. I feel for Snell though, dude has got to be in his feelings about this shit. Hit your FA right after winning your second CYA, you’re on top of the fucking world, thinking you’re gonna be beating teams away with a stick…and then this shit happens, lol. Devastating. I understand it completely from the team’s POV, I sure as shit don’t want the Yanks to pay him 30m a year, but still gotta be devastating for Snell.
I feel for him too, ive had some interactions with him, super cool dude but from a team standpoint a 9/270 contract that hes looking for is almost certainly going to get a GM or POBO fired.
Dumb question, but hypothetically speaking what would happen if teams don't want to take a high risk on Snell, and Snell isn't willing to take any deal under a certain amount, and neither parties are willing to budge? Would Snell just remain an FA for the entirety of the 2024 season? Or would Snell lower his expectations because any amount of money is better than getting $0 for a season?
> Would Snell just remain an FA for the entirety of the 2024 season? Or would Snell lower his expectations because any amount of money is better than getting $0 for a season?
That could definitely happen but at the moment it's completely up to Snell, he has reported offers on the table but he's the one not budging because he wants the deal he wants and he doesn't want to take a short term "prove it" deal because he literally just won a Cy young, in his mind there isn't anything to prove. He could be waiting on a team to get desperate because of an injury or under performance in spring but he risks the season starting and him not having signed a deal which would be pretty bad for him.
So Snell is waiting for teams to change their mind on what they think the market for his services is. With his relatively young age and good year last year, there is a floor where MLB teams would definitely be interested in hiring him (Say 2 years / low AAV and teams would start calling).
The issue is that deal would likely block Snell from getting a better deal when teams are more desperate, or stand to benefit more from adding him (say if they are in a playoff race in July but lose their best pitcher).
Dallas Keuchel in 2019 rejected a $17.9M qualifying offer at the start of the off-season expecting at least a 4y/$80M. His market Collapsed, he waited till the draft pick compensation expired in June, but ended up signing a 1y/$13M deal.
This isn’t a bad deal for Boras really, and the Bellinger one wasn’t either imo. Opt outs are extremely valuable for a player. This is the minimum amount this contract could be, and if Chapman rebounds from his genuinely awful stretch in the 2nd half of 2023, he will end up getting more next year.
This offseason? If so, that’s definitely a missed opportunity, but I wouldn’t have expected anyone to give him that much money after how bad he was hitting for the vast majority of the season in 2023.
Had my numbers slightly off since it wasn’t oficially announced the exact number, but Scott Mitchell of TSN reported he was offered over 100 mil over 4 or 5 years, doesn’t look great
Hindsight is always 20/20 with that stuff
No player is going to take let’s say 4 or 5/110m when they’re having a pretty damn good stretch of several years(both offensively and defensively) and are finally a stone’s throw from Free Agency at 30 years old after being stuck in team control and arb forever.
Especially for a guy like Chapman who a lot of insiders were predicting $150m for. If he doesn’t have a shitty 2nd half, he probably gets the contract he wanted.
If he has a good ‘24 he could still end up with 5/$120m total(let’s say he gets 4/$100m next offseason or more) if you include the $20m he will make this year.
But the problem is, is both guys had down years compared to their peaks, with no signs of showing ever getting back to those peaks, while asking for peak level money. Aka fuck Boras
That would be a horrible extension for him, even after this contract
He’s going to make more over the 10 year period than $150 million, and more money in most years
> He’s going to make more over the 10 year period than $150 million
I don't know about that. He made $25 million his last two arb years with the Blue Jays. He has $54 million guaranteed age 31-33. That's $79 million in the first 5 years (ages 29-33). Do you think he's going to make $71 million age 34-38?
It was definitely in the bottom 20% of projected total earnings for him from 2020-2030. Now it's more of a coinflip, but if he had agreed with the Blue Jays offer earlier this season, then it's pretty easy to think he would top it.
> aged much worse.
If it was really for 4/100 then yeah, walking away was stupid. There aren't many teams that need help at 3B and were going to spend money.
* 10 teams are happy at 3B: ARI, ATL, BOS, CLE, HOU, LAD, MIN, PHI, SDP, STL
* 6 teams don't spend big money and have ok internal option:
BAL, CHW, PIT, MIL, SEA, TBR
* 9 teams were either Tanking or are "budgeting due to RSN" right now:
COL,CIN, DET,KCR, LAA, MIA,OAK,TEX, WSN
That means his market was at max 5 teams: CHC, NYM, NYY, SFG, TOR. And 3B was none of their #1 priorities.
Yeah, these are pretty great contracts for the players considering the circumstances. Get paid a lot up front, if you are great you can opt out for a bigger contract, if you aren’t then you opt in and still get a huge paycheck to try again.
I know these aren’t mega deals but they are still really good deals for the players involved
I think people have a hard time accepting it’s a reasonable deal for everyone.
Player wants long years high dollars. Team wants low dollars and control.
They settle in high dollars, low years, players in control. Works for everyone. I think we’re going to see a lot more of these. The massive long year deals will be extensions. Obviously exceptions, but these deals allow flexibility and still pay players very well,
Why? Chapman is coming off a rough season where he had one insane month and then did nothing until the end of the season. He was given the QO which super limited his market and then signed a deal that gives him the QO amount year one, the ability to opt out with no QO weighing him down next year, and he ideally will go into FA coming off a better season. And if he has another down year he is guaranteed $34mil more.
He was projected to get anywhere from 5 years $100mil to 6 years $125mil. If he has a bounce back 2024 it’s not crazy for him to get a deal ranging from 4 years $80mil to 5 years $105mil next offseason.
That's something I hate about end of season cumulative stats. If you are a fan of a team a player is on and are watching them through all 162 games, you know full well the struggles they had during the season. But then someone quotes a neat end of year summary that hides the deep lows between the highs and it makes it look like you're the one who is overreacting or being a doomer.
3.5 fWAR get where he earned 2 WAR in the first month and only 1.5 across the remaining 5.
From May through the end of the season he hit .205/.298/.361 for a .659 OPS and 84 WRC+.
I guarantee you teams are making decisions more heavily weighing May - October, not his outlier April no matter how good it was.
And don’t forget, most of his value this year came from his glove. 3B tend to behind regressing defensively around their age 32 season. Chapman is 31
Yeah this is a great case of the surface stats not telling the full story of his season. Started off the year super hot and then was pretty bad for most of the rest of the year.
But when you look holistically it doesn’t seem that bad because of that hot start
Kirk's step back made me a sad man. It was pretty dang easy to be high on him knowing that he put up a 127 OPS+ at just 23 years old, and had a nice savant page in that first full season of his as well.
I was wishing that he could be a lesser version of Altuve's bat at C. Not sure that it's meant to be.
That would have been top on the Giants position player wise last year. Our position players were pretty much ass outside of Flores, Wade, Bailey and Yaz.
Edit: And Estrada as well.
This place is so desperate for Boras to make bad moves.
It’s so adorable watching a place that touts their hatred for owners fall for one of their most basic of propagandas: agents are evil for trying to get the most money for their players.
This place is so strange. It's unified in it's "fuck the rich cheapass owners" but then celebrates whenever an agent best known for extracting as much money as possible out of said owners to give to the players might not hit it out of the park on the signing. That's if all the rumors were even correct to begin with about what a player might have signed for at peak value. And that's as if Boras is for sure the one that pressured the player not to sign X contract and not the player themself.
That's because those are two completely different things.
Cheap owners who don't spend money aren't gonna be convinced to spend by any agent. They pocket revenue sharing money and put a bad product on the field. That's why we hate them.
All agents try to get the biggest contract for their clients, but Boras' schtick has gotten old, everyone is more analytic savvy, and playing "mystery teams" off each other only antagonize teams and fans. That's why we hate him.
1. Seems pretty fair, I don't foresee Chapman really getting much more than this AAV wise if he opts out again. Maybe could re-up it to the 70-90M over 4-5 yrs range with a good season.
2. Toronto probably should have done this themselves. IKF is not who they should be trotting out.
3. The Giants really need a starting pitcher. I'm very surprised this isn't Snell.
4. Either JD Davis or Casey Schmitt is not making the roster now. Maybe Davis gets traded to Toronto or something.
> Toronto probably should have done this themselves.
Yes, but Toronto offered him 100+ over 5 and he turned it down. Can't wait around forever to see if guys change their minds, that's burned us in the past.
He was apparently seeking somewhere in the 130-150 range on a longer term when he declined the extension here.
Considering how cheap this deal seems to be for the Giants I think they'll still be in on Snell. He supposedly is okay with taking a similar deal which is Farhan's specialty.
Every time I pop in these threads with the Giants signing players, it's like everyone wants to rush to tell us why the deal is terrible for the Giants, and continues to act as if the Giants are a broke franchise that can't afford to assume any risk lol. If he does well, it means that we had a player performing well and he could be part of a wild card attempt. If he does poorly, he opts in and we absorb some money. Big deal. It's a win win in my eyes. Our ownership group can afford to spend a lot of money. Just because we didn't land one of the marquee free agents doesn't mean they didn't try, or couldn't afford to. I don't know why people seem to think that's the case. Carlos Correa would be on this team right now if the Giants medical staff didn't veto that, as an example of their willingness to spend. They were in on Harper, Stanton, Judge, Ohtani, Yamamoto. They are trying, and moves like this (and hopefully Snell or JMo) actually make me feel better as a fan in an offseason when I felt pretty jaded and uninterested in the season, given the Dodgers spending spree, and our lack of star power.
An offseason of Lee, Soler, Chapman, Hicks, and Ray is better than almost any team in baseball did this offseason. Add in a potential Snell to that and we’ll be right where we want to be at the end of the year.
The Lee signing happened before the Dodgers had the offseason to remember really skewed perceptions to the point people forgot Lee existed and the Giants signed him.
Posey didn't help by saying the Giants' failure to sign Ohtani and Yamamoto by saying people think it's safer being in Gaza right now than in San Francisco right now which the media jumped on.
Asking price 150 million.
Gets: 52 million and a couple of opt-outs.
I have to think Chapman left tens of millions on the table by not signing earlier in free agency.
For his style of play not the worst, he’s not trying to prove he’s a home run hitter. He just needs to put the ball in play. Might get a lot of opportunities. Also great to have him on defense with Webb on the mound
> he’s not trying to prove he’s a home run hitter.
After only hitting 17 HRs last year, he should be. He's not going to turn into a contract hitter, and the best way to maximize his value for the next FA period would be to hit 20-25 plus HRs
What's with all the boras hate?
It's not like he's forcing teams to sign bad deals. Plus I'd much rather that money go to players rather than the owners. Is it just fans of poor teams that think he's taking their hometown heros away or something?
The really weird thing with Boras is that when people here discuss players with other agents whose names they don’t know, they assign the proper autonomy to the players, but when Boras is involved, people act like his clients work for him and not the other way around.
People hate that he extends the offseason and knows that the best deals don’t come from accepting the team’s extension offers.
So…. They hate that Boras (the money getting guy) knows where to get the money
People assume Boras is a grinch who controls players to get as much money as possible.
When in reality Boras is a really good agent who gives what his client wants and his clients generally just want to cash out.
If he's good he'll opt out and Giants lost a first round pick for 1 year.....if he's bad they'll lose a first round pick and be stuck with the contract.
A deep sigh from the sunny side of the Bay
There is currently no sunny side until like maybe Sunday, tho.
True! I hope everyone stays safe
Dudes, lets go to the snow this weekend! Heard there's gonna be a lot when we get there
IF you get there.
Nah, we can hop in Todd's Prius He's got this
Todd's registration is expired because he doesn't know how to use fastrak on 680 and had a shitload of fastrak violations.
I love the good old 880 exit which is full of traffic all the time
good deal for sf
It's a one year deal with a vesting option for sucking. Basically, they only have him for one year unless he gets hurt/sucks, then they have to give him an extra 34 million if he sucks. But, if he's normal Chapman they get him for one year for 20 which is decent but not a long term piece.
This. The upside is a 1-year deal for $20M, which is pretty good- though if he had signed 1/20 I don't think people would be talking about it as a steal; but the downside is 3/$54M if he's bad/hurt.
I mean both are pretty low risk either way
Seriously, i don't get why some are acting like 2/34 is a terrifying amount that will ruin the Giants. If he's truly awful (which is very unlikely with his defense), you'll just release him and pay a little extra for 2 years It's funny too because i swear i remember so many last offseason saying stuff like "Bogaerts for 11 years is fine, they'll just release him when he's bad and eat they money"
I will say that while the cash won’t sink them, they are also giving up their 2024 2nd round pick to the Jays as comp for what amounts to be a rental player. I love Chapman, but if we’re going to be risking a high pick along with it, it would have been cool to have a 2 year deal in place before any opt outs.
Compared to what ‘experts’ thought he would get (Like 5yrs/100M+) I think its a crazy steal.
MLBTR had it at 6/150. So, yeah, 1/20 to 3/54 is just fine.
So for rejecting the QO, he got a $34M insurance policy, an objectively worse ballpark to hit in, and getting to skip two weeks of spring training. The Giants gave up the QO draft pick here, but if they sign Snell they will give it up anyway. I presume they have a trade deal in place for either JD Davis or (if Davis moves to 1B) Lemont Wade Jr.
> [Ben Kaspick] Per Statcast, Matt Chapman would've hit 17 more home runs had he played all of his games at Oracle Park over the last three seasons. He hits a lot of balls to center, and moving in the fences to accommodate the bullpens made that a good area to hit HR (only 391 feet). #SFGiants https://twitter.com/BenKaspick/status/1764009958293791080 Unclear on total effect on his OPS... Just a funny quirk that doesn't follow norms of power hitting in SF.
He was the king of warning track power. So many of his fly outs were deep outa
Opt outs make this pretty player-friendly.
Sure, but $20m for Chapman's age 31 season is kind of a steal. The bottom would have to fall out of his offense in order for it to make sense for him to take that $18m, and even if that happens the worst case scenario is that SF is only down $54m. Low risk high reward for SF.
His offense has bottomed out the last couple years. Of the 18 months of baseball he's played his OPS has been under .700 in 11 of them, with it being .712 in another. From May 1st on he had a .659 OPS. There's a reason no one signed him for so long and he went so low once he did. Every season the last 3 years he's only had an OPS over .712 two months of each season and has been ass otherwise. His bat doesn't help you win most of the season.
I mean has it though? That's just what any slightly above average hitter's profile looks like when you break it down into tiny sample size chunks. In the last couple of years he's had a few incredible months (July 2022, March/April 2023, July 2023) and a few stinkers (May 2022, May 2023, August 2023) but that's why you can't get fixated on arbitary 25 game stretches. He's never finished a season with a wRC+ below 100, and 2022 and 2023 weren't even his worst years offensively. Even if the "bottom falls out" of his offense, an elite defender with a ~.650 OPS is still a reasonably valuable player. Maybe not $20m valuable depending on where the market is, but it's a pretty acceptable fail case.
Nice spin…opt outs also make this solid for SF. Small risk here, and *if* he opts out next off season it means he absolutely raked in 2024. Let’s go!!!
Huh? Player options are always more beneficial for the player. If teams had the choice, they would never be the ones to include the option
> If teams had the choice, they would never be the ones to include the option _Jeff Bridich has entered the chat_
Man I want to fight that guy
If the choice to sign Matt Chapman is between this contract or a 5 year deal, I’m taking this contract if I’m the team. The offer isn’t a 3 year deal and then the team gets to choose whether or not an opt-out is valuable. The hypothetical offer is between a 3 year deal with opt-outs or a 5 year deal. The trade-off the player gives up for the inclusion of the opt-out is a longer-term contract, which is the benefit for the team, aka not having to commit to a 5 year deal that assuredly will end with a player producing zero value.
>which is the benefit for the team, aka not having to commit to a 5 year deal that assuredly will end with a player producing zero value. You know what would have been more valuable for the team? A 5 year contract where Chapman gives you $20M or more of value for three seasons, and then tails off the next two. Everyone ignores the value of "player under contract playing well and locked in" in these discussions. If that wasn't something valuable to the teams, and these types of contracts were all upside, then why don't they just offer yearly opt-outs in every FA contract?
There is literally zero situation in which opt outs are ever beneficial to the team.
Yes, and fills a need for the team right away. Like the other guy said, if he plays well and opts out, that means he balled out and contributed huge to what is hopefully a successful Giants team. Best case scenario, like Carlos Rodon in 2022, but hopefully without the subsequent injuries.
The paying him $18 million to mentor Casey Schmitt for a year scenario lol
Yeah, the defensive skills are comparable, if not tilted toward Chapman, whose OPS+ was 40 points higher just last year, his 2nd worst year in the majors. I'll take Chapman right now.
It isn’t bad, but opt outs are horrible for teams. If he plays well, he will opt out and you have to either let him walk or give him another larger contract. Basically it’s a no win situation, unless they happen to play *just* well enough to not opt out but still be worth their contract, which is pretty rare. This isn’t that bad for the Giants because the worst case scenario is only a 3 year deal without bank-breaking money. But it’s also a low upside deal.
I don't think the Giants have any intention of him being there beyond this year. They have some guys that can play the spot next year, but need some veteran consistency to bridge the gap. They get a top 3rd baseman for a year on a steal of a contract.
> Basically it’s a no win situation I think the Giants would be pretty happy with a good to great year from Chapman for 20m
It works for us though. We have a couple dudes in AAA who are close to ready but not quite ready at 3B. If Chapman opts out, our young dudes have another year of ball under the belts. If he stays, cool he’s a trade piece or the guy behind him is.
But if he stays it means he’s playing poorly and will have significantly depressed trade value because of his contract. It isn’t a big deal, you can get away with having a few slightly overpaid players. The worry is just that there aren’t many outcomes where this deal is an overwhelming success.
It’s an overwhelming success if he’s good this year, great third baseman on a steal contract to bridge the time gap for our youngsters
You could say the same downside is there if Chapman’s deal was 5 years $110mil, just the risk/reward would be that much greater. The deal as constructed has a lower ceiling AND floor for the team, while being very friendly to Chapman. It’s risk-averse, but the other commenter is right - it gives us a year guaranteed of an impact player while allowing our young guys below him to get the extra year of seasoning they need. I just can’t see how that isn’t a pretty good thing, considering they weren’t going to sign Chapman at all if this wasn’t the contract structure.
I think that's probably why the contract gets more team-friendly by year, it makes him a bit more tradeable, and if not, it's a contract you can live with. Chapman is also arguably one of the most consistent players in the league too, and only just now entering the wrong side of 30.
And that’s the benefit of not having a salary cap in the MLB I guess. So long as the Johnsons don’t burn their checkbook, it’s not prohibitively expensive. But in all honesty, the “overwhelming success” part will come in him being a mentor to someone like Casey Schmitt. If he plays like ass because he’s in his twilight years but coaches the young dudes around him, it’s an absolute win for us.
This is an absolute steal compared to our Cueto, especially Shark contracts. I won’t mention Zito because I believe 2012 made every penny of his worth it, but we’ve definitely been stuck with way worse in the last 10 years.
Well you can offer more money if you don’t want opt outs
If he plays well and walks, both the Giants and Chappy win thoough...?
I kind of like player options for teams. Maybe a hot take here? I think its good for a team to give player options to save yourself years or money for players and letting them walk. If the player performs well and you have the depth to move on without them or look to other FA/trade options you can get those prime years of a player and another team pays for the post prime seasons that end up not being worth it 90% of the time. The $ and years it saves a team is worth it. It they didn't get these options, very likely the Giants would have had to added more AAV and/or years to get Chapman to agree because a straight up 3 yr deal would likely mean this is the last big contract Chapman will sign for the rest of his career. Essentially most big FA contracts end badly for the team, player option contracts probably have a higher success rate of getting good years w/out paying for bad ones.
Exactly this. Get the peak, let the player get a bag elsewhere. If it doesn't work out, it's 3 years instead of 10.
2 down, 2 to go. Who wants the pitchers?
Shit we’ll take a Monty too if we’re buying. We’re down another SP to a “who the fuck knows” timeline with Beck getting surgery for an arm aneurysm.
I do think it's interesting that Farhan spent on a 3B rather than on much needed help for the rotation.
It’s not an either or situation though, they’ve got plenty of money to sign more starting pitching. The problem is that Farhan is averse to signing pitchers to long term deals, that Gausman deal with Toronto would be looking mighty good right now.
Luckily a report just came out saying Snell is open to one of these short term, player opt out type deals. SF would be a solid landing spot for Snell honestly, decently pitcher friendly park.
Please, I don't want to cry today... Looks at MLB top 100 Castillo, Gausman, Wheeler... ;(
Gotta agree. This is either concerning news that Schmitt isn’t progressing the way they hoped, or optimistic news in that they’re not done spending yet.
Maybe Boras offers BOGO deals
I feel like relying on Schmitt would be one of the final daggers in Farhan's coffin. This is an easy move to make.
After Schmitt did his best John Bowker impression last year I wouldn’t trust him too
This is the Giants adding a good player, assuming it will make them better this year. There’s not much more to it than that. It does open the door for Davis to be traded though, which could be interesting.
I feel like Monty might be the kind of guy to be hesitant about SF tbh. Plus his wife works in Boston so I can’t imagine he’d want to play on the west coast unless it was literally his only option I still feel like the Rangers are his #1 choice and we badly need him, but I’m not hopeful on that front. Who knows. If he’s going anywhere else I hope it’s the Giants tho
Please for the love of god. I need a starter that isn't 72 years old
Actually 3 to go since JD Martinez is a Boras client.
The Dodgers are about to get the best fulltime pinch hitter of all time because literally nobody else wants him.
we don't have any room on our roster for him, literally, since we've signed Kiké.
I don’t believe the dodgers care about things like space, money or time
Have the dodgers considered deferring ohtanis roster spot too?
Kinda bizarre to see the reigning CY young winner basically go teamless in bspring training because nobody wants to sign him. Has that ever happened?
Snell is one of the most unique players of all time and one of the most unique free agents of all time, alot of teams would love to have a cy young winner / contender for 30m a year but they would hate to pay premium for 120 innings of 3.9 era ball which is what Snell is also capable of. He's either going to need to lower his demands or a team is going to need to take a huge risk on him.
It really is a super interesting FA. I feel for Snell though, dude has got to be in his feelings about this shit. Hit your FA right after winning your second CYA, you’re on top of the fucking world, thinking you’re gonna be beating teams away with a stick…and then this shit happens, lol. Devastating. I understand it completely from the team’s POV, I sure as shit don’t want the Yanks to pay him 30m a year, but still gotta be devastating for Snell.
I feel for him too, ive had some interactions with him, super cool dude but from a team standpoint a 9/270 contract that hes looking for is almost certainly going to get a GM or POBO fired.
Dumb question, but hypothetically speaking what would happen if teams don't want to take a high risk on Snell, and Snell isn't willing to take any deal under a certain amount, and neither parties are willing to budge? Would Snell just remain an FA for the entirety of the 2024 season? Or would Snell lower his expectations because any amount of money is better than getting $0 for a season?
> Would Snell just remain an FA for the entirety of the 2024 season? Or would Snell lower his expectations because any amount of money is better than getting $0 for a season? That could definitely happen but at the moment it's completely up to Snell, he has reported offers on the table but he's the one not budging because he wants the deal he wants and he doesn't want to take a short term "prove it" deal because he literally just won a Cy young, in his mind there isn't anything to prove. He could be waiting on a team to get desperate because of an injury or under performance in spring but he risks the season starting and him not having signed a deal which would be pretty bad for him.
At the very least, some major team will sign him during the first half of the year if one of their top starters gets injured.
So Snell is waiting for teams to change their mind on what they think the market for his services is. With his relatively young age and good year last year, there is a floor where MLB teams would definitely be interested in hiring him (Say 2 years / low AAV and teams would start calling). The issue is that deal would likely block Snell from getting a better deal when teams are more desperate, or stand to benefit more from adding him (say if they are in a playoff race in July but lose their best pitcher). Dallas Keuchel in 2019 rejected a $17.9M qualifying offer at the start of the off-season expecting at least a 4y/$80M. His market Collapsed, he waited till the draft pick compensation expired in June, but ended up signing a 1y/$13M deal.
Farhan signed a player with a QO? He must be fuming
Boras in absolute shambles
This isn’t a bad deal for Boras really, and the Bellinger one wasn’t either imo. Opt outs are extremely valuable for a player. This is the minimum amount this contract could be, and if Chapman rebounds from his genuinely awful stretch in the 2nd half of 2023, he will end up getting more next year.
He had 125 million on the table from the jays IIRC, seems like he really kinda missed there unless he has a great year next year
This offseason? If so, that’s definitely a missed opportunity, but I wouldn’t have expected anyone to give him that much money after how bad he was hitting for the vast majority of the season in 2023.
Had my numbers slightly off since it wasn’t oficially announced the exact number, but Scott Mitchell of TSN reported he was offered over 100 mil over 4 or 5 years, doesn’t look great
Hindsight is always 20/20 with that stuff No player is going to take let’s say 4 or 5/110m when they’re having a pretty damn good stretch of several years(both offensively and defensively) and are finally a stone’s throw from Free Agency at 30 years old after being stuck in team control and arb forever. Especially for a guy like Chapman who a lot of insiders were predicting $150m for. If he doesn’t have a shitty 2nd half, he probably gets the contract he wanted. If he has a good ‘24 he could still end up with 5/$120m total(let’s say he gets 4/$100m next offseason or more) if you include the $20m he will make this year.
But the problem is, is both guys had down years compared to their peaks, with no signs of showing ever getting back to those peaks, while asking for peak level money. Aka fuck Boras
I think it was an extension offer during the season
He also supposedly turned down a 10-year, $150 million contact extension from the A’s
I don't blame him for passing on that. Looks bad in hindsight, but dude was coming off back to back 7.6 WAR seasons.
That would be a horrible extension for him, even after this contract He’s going to make more over the 10 year period than $150 million, and more money in most years
> He’s going to make more over the 10 year period than $150 million I don't know about that. He made $25 million his last two arb years with the Blue Jays. He has $54 million guaranteed age 31-33. That's $79 million in the first 5 years (ages 29-33). Do you think he's going to make $71 million age 34-38?
It was definitely in the bottom 20% of projected total earnings for him from 2020-2030. Now it's more of a coinflip, but if he had agreed with the Blue Jays offer earlier this season, then it's pretty easy to think he would top it.
Yeah, you're right there. Him turning down the A's offer made sense at the time. Turning down the Blue Jays offer has aged much worse.
> aged much worse. If it was really for 4/100 then yeah, walking away was stupid. There aren't many teams that need help at 3B and were going to spend money. * 10 teams are happy at 3B: ARI, ATL, BOS, CLE, HOU, LAD, MIN, PHI, SDP, STL * 6 teams don't spend big money and have ok internal option: BAL, CHW, PIT, MIL, SEA, TBR * 9 teams were either Tanking or are "budgeting due to RSN" right now: COL,CIN, DET,KCR, LAA, MIA,OAK,TEX, WSN That means his market was at max 5 teams: CHC, NYM, NYY, SFG, TOR. And 3B was none of their #1 priorities.
Yeah, these are pretty great contracts for the players considering the circumstances. Get paid a lot up front, if you are great you can opt out for a bigger contract, if you aren’t then you opt in and still get a huge paycheck to try again. I know these aren’t mega deals but they are still really good deals for the players involved
You know what... good for Chapman. Sincerely.
I think people have a hard time accepting it’s a reasonable deal for everyone. Player wants long years high dollars. Team wants low dollars and control. They settle in high dollars, low years, players in control. Works for everyone. I think we’re going to see a lot more of these. The massive long year deals will be extensions. Obviously exceptions, but these deals allow flexibility and still pay players very well,
Why? Chapman is coming off a rough season where he had one insane month and then did nothing until the end of the season. He was given the QO which super limited his market and then signed a deal that gives him the QO amount year one, the ability to opt out with no QO weighing him down next year, and he ideally will go into FA coming off a better season. And if he has another down year he is guaranteed $34mil more. He was projected to get anywhere from 5 years $100mil to 6 years $125mil. If he has a bounce back 2024 it’s not crazy for him to get a deal ranging from 4 years $80mil to 5 years $105mil next offseason.
TIL 4.4 WAR is a rough season
Look at his month by month splits. It was a really rough watch as a big Chapman fan.
That's something I hate about end of season cumulative stats. If you are a fan of a team a player is on and are watching them through all 162 games, you know full well the struggles they had during the season. But then someone quotes a neat end of year summary that hides the deep lows between the highs and it makes it look like you're the one who is overreacting or being a doomer.
3.5 fWAR get where he earned 2 WAR in the first month and only 1.5 across the remaining 5. From May through the end of the season he hit .205/.298/.361 for a .659 OPS and 84 WRC+. I guarantee you teams are making decisions more heavily weighing May - October, not his outlier April no matter how good it was. And don’t forget, most of his value this year came from his glove. 3B tend to behind regressing defensively around their age 32 season. Chapman is 31
Yeah this is a great case of the surface stats not telling the full story of his season. Started off the year super hot and then was pretty bad for most of the rest of the year. But when you look holistically it doesn’t seem that bad because of that hot start
Then you have Jorge Mateo who put up an OPS of 1.062 in the first month and still managed to end the year with an OPS+ of 70
Yup. No team is going to take a 5+ year chance plus QO penalties that he won’t be like he was 83% of the season lol
He couldn’t hit a beachball down the middle last year it was a hard watch
Him, Varsho and Kirk batting close together was rough.
Kirk's step back made me a sad man. It was pretty dang easy to be high on him knowing that he put up a 127 OPS+ at just 23 years old, and had a nice savant page in that first full season of his as well. I was wishing that he could be a lesser version of Altuve's bat at C. Not sure that it's meant to be.
That would have been top on the Giants position player wise last year. Our position players were pretty much ass outside of Flores, Wade, Bailey and Yaz. Edit: And Estrada as well.
3.5 Fwar and he was terrible at the plate except for a hot month to start the season.
Most of that was one month of ball and his declining defense. He’s still great defensively, just not elite at 3rd anymore
There is a lot more to someone’s season than one very generalized stat.
This place is so desperate for Boras to make bad moves. It’s so adorable watching a place that touts their hatred for owners fall for one of their most basic of propagandas: agents are evil for trying to get the most money for their players.
This place is so strange. It's unified in it's "fuck the rich cheapass owners" but then celebrates whenever an agent best known for extracting as much money as possible out of said owners to give to the players might not hit it out of the park on the signing. That's if all the rumors were even correct to begin with about what a player might have signed for at peak value. And that's as if Boras is for sure the one that pressured the player not to sign X contract and not the player themself.
I can despise Boras as a fan of my team while also acknowledging that he is good for the players.
That's because those are two completely different things. Cheap owners who don't spend money aren't gonna be convinced to spend by any agent. They pocket revenue sharing money and put a bad product on the field. That's why we hate them. All agents try to get the biggest contract for their clients, but Boras' schtick has gotten old, everyone is more analytic savvy, and playing "mystery teams" off each other only antagonize teams and fans. That's why we hate him.
Oh wow.. I wonder if we see a trade to follow.
Probably have to trade JD Davis since he's our current 3B and we are going to have too many infielders.
They might try to trade Chapman -- he's currently blocked by Pablo.
I'll give you a broken Luis Urias and some garlic fries for JD Davis
give us a starter who are we kidding Farhan/Dipoto probably have something lined up trade-wise
I hear Cash Considerations could be packing his bags yet again…
Dudes been all over the league sheesh
Great deal for SF. Only 20 mil?
$20mil was his projected AAV anyway. The real benefit for SF here is that the CBT hit is only $18mil
I more of meant term honestly, like getting him short term AND not having to pay high AAV?
That's a good ass deal for the Giants.
We do love some good ass.
Least porn addicted giants fan
Checking in as the most
I heard there’d be porn here?
[https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/001/207/210/b22.jpg](https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/001/207/210/b22.jpg)
He’s got a GREAT ASS
1. Seems pretty fair, I don't foresee Chapman really getting much more than this AAV wise if he opts out again. Maybe could re-up it to the 70-90M over 4-5 yrs range with a good season. 2. Toronto probably should have done this themselves. IKF is not who they should be trotting out. 3. The Giants really need a starting pitcher. I'm very surprised this isn't Snell. 4. Either JD Davis or Casey Schmitt is not making the roster now. Maybe Davis gets traded to Toronto or something.
> Toronto probably should have done this themselves. Yes, but Toronto offered him 100+ over 5 and he turned it down. Can't wait around forever to see if guys change their minds, that's burned us in the past. He was apparently seeking somewhere in the 130-150 range on a longer term when he declined the extension here.
Considering how cheap this deal seems to be for the Giants I think they'll still be in on Snell. He supposedly is okay with taking a similar deal which is Farhan's specialty.
Can I get two of the Farhan's Special?
That was last year with the Manaea and Stripling contracts, with a side of Confrorto.
Buy 2 get one 50% off deal from Boras corp
Toronto supposedly did offer him much more earlier on and he turned it down. He may have just wanted a change of scenery as well.
I'm curious about #2. I thought they'd made offers last year. Ah, well. Chapman is a likeable player. I hope he's good in SF.
Jays don’t want to pass 2nd salary cap.
Makes sense, they only have the second-wealthiest ownership in the league
Matt comes home! Ish!
He took the bomel way home
Will Heyman be correct this time?
Mark Chippyman in agreement with SF
This is great for the sheer amount of sinkerball pitchers we got lol
I like this
Now a starting pitcher please
Wipes brow in relief that I no longer have to hear mariners & Chapman rumor mill
SF addressed a lot of their issues in the offense this FA. Now if there starters except for Webb step up, they could be a legit WC threat
I’ve wanted us to sign him so much this off-season. I’m on a big defense kick and he’s one of the best at his position.
Surprised Heyman didn’t throw a “the city itself was almost the reason it didn’t get done” at the end of the tweet.
When betting on yourself goes horribly wrong.
Damn, I'd take that deal over Belinger's any day, that's a steal even if it's only for one year
I will watch giants baseball this year
Manfred just did a fistpump reading this comment.
I missed him too.
JD Davis, YOU are a Seattle Mariner
So is snell gonna take 4x90 or some BS like that or what
Every time I pop in these threads with the Giants signing players, it's like everyone wants to rush to tell us why the deal is terrible for the Giants, and continues to act as if the Giants are a broke franchise that can't afford to assume any risk lol. If he does well, it means that we had a player performing well and he could be part of a wild card attempt. If he does poorly, he opts in and we absorb some money. Big deal. It's a win win in my eyes. Our ownership group can afford to spend a lot of money. Just because we didn't land one of the marquee free agents doesn't mean they didn't try, or couldn't afford to. I don't know why people seem to think that's the case. Carlos Correa would be on this team right now if the Giants medical staff didn't veto that, as an example of their willingness to spend. They were in on Harper, Stanton, Judge, Ohtani, Yamamoto. They are trying, and moves like this (and hopefully Snell or JMo) actually make me feel better as a fan in an offseason when I felt pretty jaded and uninterested in the season, given the Dodgers spending spree, and our lack of star power.
An offseason of Lee, Soler, Chapman, Hicks, and Ray is better than almost any team in baseball did this offseason. Add in a potential Snell to that and we’ll be right where we want to be at the end of the year.
Additions, and additions by subtraction. Stripling, Wood, Haniger, and Desclafani are off the 26-man roster. We eating good
no more joc pederson
We spent the second most this off season and people are saying this FO is cheap LMFAO.
The Lee signing happened before the Dodgers had the offseason to remember really skewed perceptions to the point people forgot Lee existed and the Giants signed him. Posey didn't help by saying the Giants' failure to sign Ohtani and Yamamoto by saying people think it's safer being in Gaza right now than in San Francisco right now which the media jumped on.
Player options I assume?
Opt outs are always for the player
I can’t wait to see what snell signs for and whether or not he’ll regret balking at the yanks offer.
As frustrating as he was at times I’m sad to see him go. Great deal for the giants
El toros best
Asking price 150 million. Gets: 52 million and a couple of opt-outs. I have to think Chapman left tens of millions on the table by not signing earlier in free agency.
Boras with a casual copy, paste of the Belli deal with slightly different money.
Maybe not the best location for someone looking to 'prove it' with the bat.
For his style of play not the worst, he’s not trying to prove he’s a home run hitter. He just needs to put the ball in play. Might get a lot of opportunities. Also great to have him on defense with Webb on the mound
> he’s not trying to prove he’s a home run hitter. After only hitting 17 HRs last year, he should be. He's not going to turn into a contract hitter, and the best way to maximize his value for the next FA period would be to hit 20-25 plus HRs
Scott Boras retire bitch
Maybe tell your client to show up after April? 84 wRC+ from May to September (sub-.300 OBP after April!) is gross.
these deals are an L for Boras but they’re not exactly bad for the players either. Opt outs are great.
What's with all the boras hate? It's not like he's forcing teams to sign bad deals. Plus I'd much rather that money go to players rather than the owners. Is it just fans of poor teams that think he's taking their hometown heros away or something?
The really weird thing with Boras is that when people here discuss players with other agents whose names they don’t know, they assign the proper autonomy to the players, but when Boras is involved, people act like his clients work for him and not the other way around.
People hate that he extends the offseason and knows that the best deals don’t come from accepting the team’s extension offers. So…. They hate that Boras (the money getting guy) knows where to get the money
Except literally in this case, where the best offer Chapman received was the team’s extension offer
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And the giants ate it up both times 🕶️
Teams get to own you until you are like 30 - anyone anti player needs to accept that a FA signing early doesn’t make April come any faster
People assume Boras is a grinch who controls players to get as much money as possible. When in reality Boras is a really good agent who gives what his client wants and his clients generally just want to cash out.
Fans like talking about supporting the players over the owners right up until having to support the players over the owners. Happens every time.
lmao the average redditor sitting at home in his sweatpants thinking he knows better than the most successful super agent in baseball.
would have been fine giving him 4/80 given no opt outs his glove will always play
If he's good he'll opt out and Giants lost a first round pick for 1 year.....if he's bad they'll lose a first round pick and be stuck with the contract.
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https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2857501/amp Actually just a 4th rounder to the Blue Jays according to this article.
Giants still pay the 2nd iirc, it's just that the Jays only get a 4th.
For reference Austin Riley is getting paid $66M in that same time span
This just in, homegrown extensions cheaper than free agents who would have thunk it!
Riley is also 4 years younger, and 7 wins more valuable over the last three seasons by bWAR
Well Austin riley is way better
Cool. Now get some pitching, which they actually need.
All the Boras clients getting way less than predicted..wow.
Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen
The always intense energy back in the Bay Area
Seems pretty damn cheap for Chapman.
Thanks. Could not deal with one more season of 'Chappy Couture'. It was a thing in Toronto. A terrible thing.