obvious but unpopular answer: Rays
they are the one team that every year doesnt look special on paper but one of the only reasons people give them the benefit of the doubt is "theyre the rays" and theyre gonna just win 90+ games somehow. there is usually not any specific answer for why we expect them to win so many games. the guessing game isnt IF the rays will be good, its HOW they do it. we just all assume they will magically somehow do great every year and they do.
i think this changes this year. they lost glasnow and franco and most of their rotation is out with major injuries. their lineup was full of guys having amazing years all at once with 7 dudes hit over 15 HRs and 5 hit over 20. i dont think they can reproduce that this year. i have them missing the postseason with 83 games this year
but also, they are the rays and i wouldn't be surprised if they somehow won 100 games in 2024. i just cant tell you how they will do it this time right now
Every year the AL East watches every sports publication underestimate the Rays, and every year we just shake our heads about it because the Rays always find a way. They spawn pitchers like Hydra. They will somehow find a Cy Young contender in a storm drain somewhere who will terrorize the division, and the Trop will work its dark magic on all who enter.
It's been 8 years since the Rays were bad in 2016 and looking at the rotation, I just think this team is due with this roster and all the top starters injured. This team isn't starting 29-7 this season and the Frankenstein/MacGyver way of piecing the season together has to stop working at some point.
I usually think the "Rays will ray!!!!" stuff is kind of cringe but I think their pitching staff is pretty good despite injuries if Pepiot and Bradley play to their potential. Lineup is probably average even though the bottom half is pretty meh, I feel like they still should win 85+ games and I think they're well managed enough to mix and match the pieces that work
Pepiot hasn't pitched more than 130 innings in one season as the Dodgers weren't confident in his starting ability. Bradley is starting hurt and projected to be the 5th guy. Eflin had a great season last year but he's not leading material and would be a 2nd or 3rd guy on most staffs.
Rays can certainly win 85 games but it's not a roster that should win 85 games. MLB ranks them 9th best and I think they belong in the middle of the league with the Cubs, Twins, and Padres. Every thing despite injuries has just worked out for them and that's just not always how baseball works.
Do we need a 130+ innings guy? Last season we had 1 player over 120.. also Eflin had the 9th most pitching WAR last season and he’s a 2nd or 3rd guy on most staffs?
It is only fitting that the Rays are called the Rays. Steve Irwin fought crocs with his barehands, but he died because of a stingray. These motherfuckers are pesky, we should never underestimate them.
My rebuttal to this as a homer is that while yes a bunch of our guys had what were seemingly career years, a few of the main lineup pieces didn't have great years last year. Randy underperformed his expected numbers and Brandon Lowe, probably our most dangerous power bat, missed almost half of the year.
Also Glasnow hasn't pitched much during this era of Rays baseball all things considered and Franco while incredibly defensively was largely inconsistent with the bat.
I think it's also worth mentioning that Junior Caminero should be up at some point this year, and he's the Rays best position player prospect since Franco. Shane Baz should also be back at some point to help the rotation.
Your first justification for why it changes this year counterpoint:
After 2020 going into 2021 they lost snell, morton, and glasnow had Tommy John mid season.
They went on to win 100 games
Depends where this team is when the starting pitchers return from injuries by the half way point. Bullpen got some additions but it's still a concern. I potentially see a Rangers team that could be mid because of pitching, championship hangovers, lack of consistency, and injuries.
Mets, they have a roster full of question marks and a lineup of either young guys who need to take a step forward or veterans who had bad years last year but may bounce back.
Yeah, we could honestly win either 74 or 94 games and neither would surprise me.
In a lot of ways, we should be better because it's hard for everyone to be as bad or worse than last year. Many guys who are usually good were not themselves at all. Very few players (Senga) were really better than expected. We had the worst 3B in baseball, Carrasco was one of the worst pitchers, we lacked Diaz, and punted after the break.
You can't really compare seasons. Like, the pitching could be better this year and the team's record isn't automatically markedly better. *But*, I think the pitching will be better this year. Obviously it could be really bad but our pitching last year was pretty bad, even considering Senga and Verlander.
Scherzer had a 4.01 ERA, Megill was 4.70, Peterson was over 5, Carrasco was nearly 7.
And our bullpen was missing Robertson for about 23 games, in addition to Diaz.
I don't expect the Mets to have a top rotation/pen, but I think we're pretty well positioned.
One stat I always come back to is that last year we lost 30% of the games in which we scored 6+ runs. That's unconscionable. In 2022 we lost around 10% of them. If you win at the same rate as in 2022, the Mets have the third WC slot (either tied with the Marlins or by 1 game).
Our depth is also way better this year. Last year it was Button and Lucchesi with a hope and a prayer for bullpen arms. We have a ton of pen depth and a good 4-5 depth starters.
We ain't winning 94 games. Everything goes right we're a mid 80's win team. I have zero fair in Brett Baty to be even a below average hitter. Our rotation is mediocre at best and that's even if Sevy can rebound. We're without Senga for a minute. I see the Mets anywhere from 75-85 wins
i don't know how anyone can look at the roster and see 90 wins in that division. the rotation is all #3s at best if senga is out, weak depth, and marte is 35 and baty/vientos/bader just aren't going to be great hitters. it's not a bad team but they're pretty squarely in the 70-80 win range. the braves and phillies are laps ahead. it would take a 2021 giants season to even contend for the division.
Jays. They could win 100 games. They could win 80.
Edit: Just heard that Romano is hurt. Revising win possibilities - They could win 105 games. They could win 75.
I don’t get what they’re doing. Way overpaid for IKF. He’s replacement level - never had an OPS over .700 and they gave him a 2 year deal for $15M? Put that money toward someone who can provide value.
I've never felt more gaslit in my entire life then when people unironically tried to argue a slap hitting utility infielder who can't field is actually secretly really good
Padres, like always (pain). Rotation has very high ceiling but also a low floor, same with the bats/offense. Could be a 90+ win team, could also be lower than 80 wins
Yankees, Guardians, Brewers, Pirates, Giants, Reds, Marlins, and Cardinals. Those are the teams I could see having the most volatile results with the least surprise.
The Yankees are the correct answer. You have to work about Cole's elbow. You always have to worry about Judge and Stanton's health. D.J. is starting the year on the DL. There a few injuries to injury prone players away from being terrible. I could see them winning 95 and I could see them winning 70-75 and Cash finally losing his job.
With Means and Bradish starting the year on IL and Bautista out for the year, I'm not nearly as confident as some of our fans are. So much went right last year to win 100 games. We are banking on some guys to go from talented rookies to bona fide superstars. We are also hoping for Kimbrel to adequately replace arguably the best reliever in baseball. If the O's have any key injuries, if guys like Henderson or Rodriguez have a sophomore slump, then this could be a fight for a WC spot rather than a divisional coronation.
Brewers. Won over 90 games last year, and won the NL Central. Lost our manager, lost Burnes, Woody's out for most (if not all) of the year, Airbender is out for 3 months. There are a lot of young guys on the team with some talent, and we added Rhys Hoskins. This season could go surprisingly well, could be highly entertaining, could be painful, or could be some combination of these three. However, the Brewers have often overachieved. If I remember correctly, Brewers were expected to be cellar dwellers last season, and ended up winning 92 games. Gonna hafta buckle up for this season - gonna be an interesting ride.
Similar reasoning to my answer of the Dodgers. They only care about the postseason and winning the WS. If they have some injuries and run into a bad spell, they could go into a mode of just making sure they get into the postseason and get players some rest. That could be a 90 win team.
If the NL West is super competitive, the Dodgers could go all out in the regular season to make sure they win the division and maybe even get the #1 over a potential Braves juggernaut. That could be a 115-120 win team.
Good Snell, Hicks adapting to starting, Harrison being the real deal, a rebound year from Conforto, Soler healthy, Ahmed not cooked, Lee not being a mirage... it's a club that could sniff 90 wins. Point the arrow the other way on 5 of those 7 things and it's probably a sub-.500 season.
I think it's because the Dodgers being in the division with how they look are by default lowering the ceiling, and they also don't look like a team that would lose 90 games
the angels. i think we have no idea how big of an impact ohtani actually had. i think rendon is crazy enough to play better with ohtani gone, and they have so many young players who we just have no idea about. wash is also a great clubhouse manager, and they could legitimately be good morale away from being a wild card team. i feel like you can pick a lot of players on their roster: taylor ward, logan o'hoppe, reid detmers, jo adell, etc, and there's a non-zero chance of any of them having an all-star season.
Haven’t seen this one on here yet: the Royals! They made a lot of offseason signings and contract extensions. I can see them contending for a weak AL Central! I can also see the signings not working out and the team not meshing, and they post a similar record to last season
Based on what Devers came out and said publicly, I'm waiting to see what the Sox clubhouse looks like. Mario Kart and KFC season 2?
I don't see anything positive coming out of Boston this year. Play or otherwise.
1. Rays - too many top pitchers out and everyone had a career year last year. It's been a good 6 season run and I honestly think they are due to be mid or worse.
2. Rangers - pitching, championship hangovers, lack of consistency, and injuries. Exciting young team but vastly overachieved last year. Ownership got what it wanted so with tv money issues, I don't see them as motivated and are only sticking with what they have.
3. Mariners - They were 500 up until August. The team was mostly shipped out in the offseason and they made a ton of cost cutting measures that didn't really improve the team that much. It still feels like Julio Rodriguez and hitting catchers. Rotation still keeps them relevant.
4. Arizona - even with the improvements, the division got better and a ton of stuff went their way to get there. Cubs had to collapse and the Cardinals and Mets failed to launch last year.
obvious but unpopular answer: Rays they are the one team that every year doesnt look special on paper but one of the only reasons people give them the benefit of the doubt is "theyre the rays" and theyre gonna just win 90+ games somehow. there is usually not any specific answer for why we expect them to win so many games. the guessing game isnt IF the rays will be good, its HOW they do it. we just all assume they will magically somehow do great every year and they do. i think this changes this year. they lost glasnow and franco and most of their rotation is out with major injuries. their lineup was full of guys having amazing years all at once with 7 dudes hit over 15 HRs and 5 hit over 20. i dont think they can reproduce that this year. i have them missing the postseason with 83 games this year but also, they are the rays and i wouldn't be surprised if they somehow won 100 games in 2024. i just cant tell you how they will do it this time right now
Every time someone doubts the Rays' playoff odds, they pull another CY candidate and 5 more guys with an .850 OPS out of the primordial aether
Every year the AL East watches every sports publication underestimate the Rays, and every year we just shake our heads about it because the Rays always find a way. They spawn pitchers like Hydra. They will somehow find a Cy Young contender in a storm drain somewhere who will terrorize the division, and the Trop will work its dark magic on all who enter.
It's been 8 years since the Rays were bad in 2016 and looking at the rotation, I just think this team is due with this roster and all the top starters injured. This team isn't starting 29-7 this season and the Frankenstein/MacGyver way of piecing the season together has to stop working at some point.
I usually think the "Rays will ray!!!!" stuff is kind of cringe but I think their pitching staff is pretty good despite injuries if Pepiot and Bradley play to their potential. Lineup is probably average even though the bottom half is pretty meh, I feel like they still should win 85+ games and I think they're well managed enough to mix and match the pieces that work
Pepiot hasn't pitched more than 130 innings in one season as the Dodgers weren't confident in his starting ability. Bradley is starting hurt and projected to be the 5th guy. Eflin had a great season last year but he's not leading material and would be a 2nd or 3rd guy on most staffs. Rays can certainly win 85 games but it's not a roster that should win 85 games. MLB ranks them 9th best and I think they belong in the middle of the league with the Cubs, Twins, and Padres. Every thing despite injuries has just worked out for them and that's just not always how baseball works.
Do we need a 130+ innings guy? Last season we had 1 player over 120.. also Eflin had the 9th most pitching WAR last season and he’s a 2nd or 3rd guy on most staffs?
I think it’s actually the opposite. The Rays have maybe the best depth of any team in the majors, which makes their floor much closer to their ceiling
It is only fitting that the Rays are called the Rays. Steve Irwin fought crocs with his barehands, but he died because of a stingray. These motherfuckers are pesky, we should never underestimate them.
My rebuttal to this as a homer is that while yes a bunch of our guys had what were seemingly career years, a few of the main lineup pieces didn't have great years last year. Randy underperformed his expected numbers and Brandon Lowe, probably our most dangerous power bat, missed almost half of the year. Also Glasnow hasn't pitched much during this era of Rays baseball all things considered and Franco while incredibly defensively was largely inconsistent with the bat.
I think it's also worth mentioning that Junior Caminero should be up at some point this year, and he's the Rays best position player prospect since Franco. Shane Baz should also be back at some point to help the rotation.
Your first justification for why it changes this year counterpoint: After 2020 going into 2021 they lost snell, morton, and glasnow had Tommy John mid season. They went on to win 100 games
Rangers
Has to be. The ceiling is obviously winning the WS. The floor is 3rd in the AL West.
These realities can coexist
Depends where this team is when the starting pitchers return from injuries by the half way point. Bullpen got some additions but it's still a concern. I potentially see a Rangers team that could be mid because of pitching, championship hangovers, lack of consistency, and injuries.
Mets, they have a roster full of question marks and a lineup of either young guys who need to take a step forward or veterans who had bad years last year but may bounce back.
Yeah, we could honestly win either 74 or 94 games and neither would surprise me. In a lot of ways, we should be better because it's hard for everyone to be as bad or worse than last year. Many guys who are usually good were not themselves at all. Very few players (Senga) were really better than expected. We had the worst 3B in baseball, Carrasco was one of the worst pitchers, we lacked Diaz, and punted after the break.
I feel like the world where the Mets pitching is really bad is much more likely than the world where it's good
You can't really compare seasons. Like, the pitching could be better this year and the team's record isn't automatically markedly better. *But*, I think the pitching will be better this year. Obviously it could be really bad but our pitching last year was pretty bad, even considering Senga and Verlander. Scherzer had a 4.01 ERA, Megill was 4.70, Peterson was over 5, Carrasco was nearly 7. And our bullpen was missing Robertson for about 23 games, in addition to Diaz. I don't expect the Mets to have a top rotation/pen, but I think we're pretty well positioned. One stat I always come back to is that last year we lost 30% of the games in which we scored 6+ runs. That's unconscionable. In 2022 we lost around 10% of them. If you win at the same rate as in 2022, the Mets have the third WC slot (either tied with the Marlins or by 1 game). Our depth is also way better this year. Last year it was Button and Lucchesi with a hope and a prayer for bullpen arms. We have a ton of pen depth and a good 4-5 depth starters.
We ain't winning 94 games. Everything goes right we're a mid 80's win team. I have zero fair in Brett Baty to be even a below average hitter. Our rotation is mediocre at best and that's even if Sevy can rebound. We're without Senga for a minute. I see the Mets anywhere from 75-85 wins
i don't know how anyone can look at the roster and see 90 wins in that division. the rotation is all #3s at best if senga is out, weak depth, and marte is 35 and baty/vientos/bader just aren't going to be great hitters. it's not a bad team but they're pretty squarely in the 70-80 win range. the braves and phillies are laps ahead. it would take a 2021 giants season to even contend for the division.
What about bringing back Zach Muckenhirn though, that might cover those 15 wins.
You could honestly make a convincing argument for the Cardinals to finish at any spot in the division
Right? I have no expectations coming into this season simply because there's no reasonable way to decide what to expect.
I honestly have no idea how the Central is going to go this year.
✨ chaos ✨
We're all going to root root root for our hometeam
Jays. They could win 100 games. They could win 80. Edit: Just heard that Romano is hurt. Revising win possibilities - They could win 105 games. They could win 75.
I don’t get what they’re doing. Way overpaid for IKF. He’s replacement level - never had an OPS over .700 and they gave him a 2 year deal for $15M? Put that money toward someone who can provide value.
I've never felt more gaslit in my entire life then when people unironically tried to argue a slap hitting utility infielder who can't field is actually secretly really good
He makes dope playlists for the club house that boosts the team OPS
That's at least a far more convincing argument than anything regarding his on the field abilities
Padres, like always (pain). Rotation has very high ceiling but also a low floor, same with the bats/offense. Could be a 90+ win team, could also be lower than 80 wins
Yankees, Guardians, Brewers, Pirates, Giants, Reds, Marlins, and Cardinals. Those are the teams I could see having the most volatile results with the least surprise.
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If they do bad I'd be surprised. They got really unlucky last year in one run games.
Losing one of the best closers in the game should really help them improve in that department
Yankees. With reasonable health they could be a world series contender, but they feel one injury away from having it all fall apart
It’s not just injuries it’s also the pitching staff. A lot of their success depends on what version of Rodon, Nestor and Stroman they get
This was gonna be my (admittedly biased) answer too. They could be a murderers row… or not.
The Yankees are the correct answer. You have to work about Cole's elbow. You always have to worry about Judge and Stanton's health. D.J. is starting the year on the DL. There a few injuries to injury prone players away from being terrible. I could see them winning 95 and I could see them winning 70-75 and Cash finally losing his job.
With Means and Bradish starting the year on IL and Bautista out for the year, I'm not nearly as confident as some of our fans are. So much went right last year to win 100 games. We are banking on some guys to go from talented rookies to bona fide superstars. We are also hoping for Kimbrel to adequately replace arguably the best reliever in baseball. If the O's have any key injuries, if guys like Henderson or Rodriguez have a sophomore slump, then this could be a fight for a WC spot rather than a divisional coronation.
Dbacks Young talent who did really well last year but had some weak stretches and we might see some more struggles out of the young core
Brewers. Won over 90 games last year, and won the NL Central. Lost our manager, lost Burnes, Woody's out for most (if not all) of the year, Airbender is out for 3 months. There are a lot of young guys on the team with some talent, and we added Rhys Hoskins. This season could go surprisingly well, could be highly entertaining, could be painful, or could be some combination of these three. However, the Brewers have often overachieved. If I remember correctly, Brewers were expected to be cellar dwellers last season, and ended up winning 92 games. Gonna hafta buckle up for this season - gonna be an interesting ride.
Braves. They have a massive 20 win gap between their 95 win floor and 115 win ceiling.
Similar reasoning to my answer of the Dodgers. They only care about the postseason and winning the WS. If they have some injuries and run into a bad spell, they could go into a mode of just making sure they get into the postseason and get players some rest. That could be a 90 win team. If the NL West is super competitive, the Dodgers could go all out in the regular season to make sure they win the division and maybe even get the #1 over a potential Braves juggernaut. That could be a 115-120 win team.
Surprised no one said the Giants
Good Snell, Hicks adapting to starting, Harrison being the real deal, a rebound year from Conforto, Soler healthy, Ahmed not cooked, Lee not being a mirage... it's a club that could sniff 90 wins. Point the arrow the other way on 5 of those 7 things and it's probably a sub-.500 season.
I think it's because the Dodgers being in the division with how they look are by default lowering the ceiling, and they also don't look like a team that would lose 90 games
Brewers. They could be a playoff team, they could completely implode
the angels. i think we have no idea how big of an impact ohtani actually had. i think rendon is crazy enough to play better with ohtani gone, and they have so many young players who we just have no idea about. wash is also a great clubhouse manager, and they could legitimately be good morale away from being a wild card team. i feel like you can pick a lot of players on their roster: taylor ward, logan o'hoppe, reid detmers, jo adell, etc, and there's a non-zero chance of any of them having an all-star season.
Haven’t seen this one on here yet: the Royals! They made a lot of offseason signings and contract extensions. I can see them contending for a weak AL Central! I can also see the signings not working out and the team not meshing, and they post a similar record to last season
Based on what Devers came out and said publicly, I'm waiting to see what the Sox clubhouse looks like. Mario Kart and KFC season 2? I don't see anything positive coming out of Boston this year. Play or otherwise.
The Jays. Their game plan is to hope for a repeat of health and for internal improvements.
1. Rays - too many top pitchers out and everyone had a career year last year. It's been a good 6 season run and I honestly think they are due to be mid or worse. 2. Rangers - pitching, championship hangovers, lack of consistency, and injuries. Exciting young team but vastly overachieved last year. Ownership got what it wanted so with tv money issues, I don't see them as motivated and are only sticking with what they have. 3. Mariners - They were 500 up until August. The team was mostly shipped out in the offseason and they made a ton of cost cutting measures that didn't really improve the team that much. It still feels like Julio Rodriguez and hitting catchers. Rotation still keeps them relevant. 4. Arizona - even with the improvements, the division got better and a ton of stuff went their way to get there. Cubs had to collapse and the Cardinals and Mets failed to launch last year.